Thursday, July 24, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #20 (2014 RB Handcuffs)

This e-mail is from FantasyGuru.com's EXPIRED/FREE OFF-SEASON SUBSCRIBER mailing list. To remove yourself from this list, check the bottom of this e-mail. If you have any question about our site and service, check the Site Help Page first. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You really need to see what we're doing this year. 
You should really check out the links below to see everything you'll miss if you're not on board this year. Avoid the summer rush and renew today for the 20th season of FantasyGuru.com!  For more info, see the links below.

================================================
FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #20
Published, July 24, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
================================================

IN THIS ISSUE: 

RECENT ARTICLES ONLINE NOW: 

UP NEXT:

  • 2014 ADP Analysis - Tomorrow 
  • 2014 Projections/Excel Files/Tools - Tomorrow

SUBSCRIBER NEWS:

2014 RB Handcuffs

Published, 7/24/14 

As we enter training camp, very few backfields in the NFL can be broken down to strictly “X is the starter and Y is the handcuff.” So for this first edition of our traditional “RB Handcuffs” article, we’re taking a look at each backfield in the league and the players competing for roles in those backfields. As the picture becomes clearer (or muddier) throughout camps and the preseason, the article will be updated.
 
Arizona Cardinals: RB Andre Ellington earned the right to be the Cardinals’ feature back with his performance as a rookie in 2013. Ellington is clearly their best option on early and third-down work, but he could lose goal-line and short-yardage carries to Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor. Dwyer has the slight leg up on Taylor as the handcuff in this Cardinal backfield, but the two would likely split snaps if Ellington misses time. Dwyer has some previous experience with HC Bruce Arians’ offense during his time in Pittsburgh, but Taylor did play in the system last season, so this battle could last well into training camp. Dwyer has impressed so far as a receiver, believe it or not, but Taylor could be a factor on 3rd downs because he’s better in pass pro than Dwyer.
 
Short-term handcuff: Jonathan Dwyer
Long-term handcuff: Jonathan Dwyer
 
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are hopeful that rookie Devonta Freeman can take control of the handcuff role in the preseason, behind the aging Steven Jackson. Heading into training camp, Freeman is lagging behind a bit in pass protection, but he should overtake Jacquizz Rodgers if he can clear up those pass pro issues. Jacquizz has disappointed as a change-of-pace back since he broke into the league, and Jackson looked close to the end of his career at times last season, and that’s when he was healthy. Freeman has the tools to become a three-down back, and he could become the man in Atlanta before the end of the season.

Short-term handcuff: Jacquizz Rodgers
Long-term handcuff: Devonta Freeman
 
Baltimore Ravens: Starting RB Ray Rice is most likely facing a suspension to start the season, meaning that handcuff Bernard Pierce will open the year as the starter. Pierce is coming off major shoulder surgery, and he played ineffectively – like Rice – last season. With Rice out of the lineup, Pierce could work as the early-down and goal-line back to start the year, with Justin Forsett handling passing downs. Rice will more than likely become the feature back once his suspension is over, but his leash will be shorter this season after a disastrous 2013 campaign. Rookie RB Lorenzo Taliaferro hurt his chances for early playing time with some off-the-field issues, but he’s still in the mix in a very fluid backfield.

Short-term handcuff: Bernard Pierce (and Justin Forsett if Rice is out)
Long-term handcuff: Bernard Pierce
 
Buffalo Bills: The Bills and HC Doug Marrone love their dual backfield, and they added some depth this off-season by adding the talented Bryce Brown to be a handcuff for C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. The Bills were very high on Brown, and tried to trade for him last off-season, but he’d still likely need an injury in front of him to make much of a fantasy impact. However, Spiller has had injury issues and Jackson is getting up there in age (33), so Brown has the chance to make some noise in 2014. Both Spiller and Jackson are also entering contract years, so the Bills could be in evaluation mode with Brown late in the year if they struggle to win games. Due to his pass-pro issues, he’s likely just a 1st and 2nd down back. RB Anthony Dixon is a player to keep an eye on in case he starts to vulture goal-line chances away from Jackson, but he’s expected to play mostly on special teams.
 
Short-term handcuff: Bryce Brown 
Long-term handcuff: Bryce Brown
 
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have one of the worst RBBC’s in all of football, with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart essentially serving as co-starters. What makes this backfield even worse is that RB Mike Tolbert and QB Cam Newton are also here to vulture TDs away from Williams and Stewart. Rookie RB Tyler Gaffney could also eventually work his way into the mix at some point this season. Stewart actually stayed healthy this off-season, so we’ll see if he looks any better this preseason and can seize more snaps as the younger option (Stewart is 27 and Williams is 31). If healthy, he could handle more than half the carries. This Panther backfield is setting up to be a headache once again, and there is no real handcuff for Stewart and Williams with them being each other’s.
 
Short-term handcuff: TBD
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
Chicago Bears: RB Matt Forte is the clear feature back in this offense, and Chicago drafted Ka’Deem Carey in the fourth round to hopefully serve as the team’s handcuff, and someone who can actually spell Forte effectively (Michael Bush was not that guy last year). Carey will go into camp as the favorite to win the handcuff going against Michael Ford, who is an undrafted second-year player. Carey is the better inside runner, while Ford is more of a scatback. Carey has skills as both a runner and receiver, so his versatility is a key and he appears to be an ideal handcuff in HC Marc Trestman’s offense. Forte will see the vast majority of touches in every situation, but Carey could be a solid insurance policy if he plays well in the preseason.
 
Short-term handcuff: Ka’Deem Carey
Long-term handcuff: Ka’Deem Carey
 
Cincinnati Bengals: RB Giovani Bernard should get more looks in his second season as the official starter, but the Bengals still went out and upgraded at RB by drafting Jeremy Hill in the second round. Hill looks like a major upgrade over the plodding and ineffective BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Hill will be the power complement to the quick and versatile Bernard. Bernard and Hill both have the chance to be centerpieces in this new offense under OC Hue Jackson, with Bernard getting more early-down work than he did last season. Hill can play all three downs, so he could also challenge Gio for some touches in the passing game. Meanwhile, BJGE will compete with second-year RB Rex Burkhead for a roster spot. Green-Ellis’ chance at relevance is if Hill struggles to pick up the offense or his off-field concerns come into play, but he might not get the chance because the team likes Burkhead and will keep special teams ace Cedric Peerman.

Short-term handcuff: Jeremy Hill
Long-term handcuff: Jeremy Hill
 
Cleveland Browns: RB Ben Tate is the favorite to open the year as the starter and he’s talented enough to play that role, but third-round rookie RB Terrance West could make a serious push for playing time early in the season. If Tate is #1, West is #1A heading into the season, and West is an important spot because of Tate’s durability issues in Houston. West is a handcuff with a lot of appeal and upside, and this backfield could turn into a RBBC at some point this season. The Browns also have Dion Lewis, Edwin Baker, and talented UDFA Isaiah Crowell in this backfield, and they will battle for snaps in camp behind Tate and West.

Short-term handcuff: Terrance West
Long-term handcuff:Terrance West
 
Dallas Cowboys: RB DeMarco Murray is the clear top RB in this offense in every situation, but pass-happy play-caller Scott Linehan is in town this season, and he’ll likely get Lance Dunbar involved the way he did with Joique Bell in Detroit last season. Dunbar is more of a change-of-pace runner and receiver complement to Murray, so he might not be a true handcuff. RB Joseph Randle looked terrible last year in limited opportunities, and RB Ryan Williams has played a total of five games in three seasons. That said, the battle between Williams and Randle will be semi-interesting to follow because Murray is often injured. Should Murray get injured again, either Randle or Williams could have a rotational role alongside Dunbar. As for Dunbar, he should have some value independent of Murray.
 
Short-term handcuff: Lance Dunbar
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
Denver Broncos: Second-year RB Montee Ball will get his chance to be a fantasy stud as the starter next to Peyton Manning, with Knowshon Moreno’s departure to Miami. RB C.J. Anderson has the chance to become the handcuff here, as a bigger back who is more in the “Ball mold” than the constantly dog-housed Ronnie Hillman. Anderson definitely feels like the handcuff to Ball because he does more of the same things Ball does. Hillman is the best changeup and complementary option on the roster, and could work well in conjunction with Ball if he regains the trust of the coaches. Anderson likely has the edge on Hillman as the guy who would take the primary early-down role in the event Ball goes down or struggles. And as we seen over the years, playing with Peyton means instant fantasy value for whoever is lining up behind him.
 
Short-term handcuff: C.J. Anderson
Long-term handcuff: C.J. Anderson
 
Detroit Lions: It’s possible that we could have two RB handcuff options in Detroit this season, with Theo Riddick as more of Reggie Bush’s backup, and Mikel Leshoure (if he makes the team) as more of Joique Bell’s backup. Riddick is a former college WR who could have a significant role catching the ball in Joe Lombardi’s rotation-heavy offense. Riddick is more of the Bush type in this offense, while Leshoure could be more of the Bell bruiser without the receiving ability. The Lions will use a RBBC with their top two rushers, as Bush is still technically the lead back, but Bell is likely to see an uptick as a runner.
 
Short-term handcuff: TBD
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
Green Bay Packers: RB Eddie Lacy isn’t exactly the easiest guy to duplicate on the football field, but James Starks actually ran a lot like the Packer starter last season, which makes him a solid handcuff. Starks can be a bruising runner like Lacy, while also having some surprising open-field vertical burst. Starks ran for 132 yards and a TD in Week Two last season, a game Lacy left early, so he has shown he can be a viable handcuff if needed off the Waiver Wire. RB Johnathan Franklin’s career came to an abrupt end because of a neck injury, so Starks is firmly ahead of DuJuan Harris as the top backup. Starks is a must-own if Lacy went down for any length of time.
 
Short-term handcuff: James Starks  
Long-term handcuff: James Starks

Houston Texans: The Texans signed RB Andre Brown this off-season to be an insurance policy for feature RB Arian Foster, and it’s fair to wonder just what Foster has left in the tank after his back surgery last season. Still, we can’t overlook Brown’s own injury history, so he’ll need to stay healthy to hold off young RBs Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes, and Dennis Johnson. HC Bill O’Brien has said that he wants to use Brown on only early-down work, but he can be an every-down back. Brown could see several touches per game as a backup because the Texans will lean heavily on their running game. Brown is a good handcuff for Foster owners because he’s shown he can be strong for fantasy in spurts, as he’s shown the last two seasons when he hasn’t been hurt.
 
Short-term handcuff: Andre Brown
Long-term handcuff: Andre Brown
 
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are prepared to give RB Trent Richardson another chance as the feature back, but he’s coming off a complete nightmare season and could have a short leash. The Colts need to figure out who will get the first chance if Richardson struggles again, as Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw have been productive in the past, but both are coming off season-ending injuries (Ballard an ACL, Bradshaw a neck injury). This is a battle to watch in training camp because the Colts can’t afford to keep giving the ball to Richardson if he struggles the way he did a season ago. Heading into camp, Bradshaw probably has a slight advantage as the next man up if they wanted to feature someone else in the backfield, as Ballard is just getting on track from his ACL injury (although he was cleared on 7/23).

Short-term handcuff: Ahmad Bradshaw
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars brought RB Toby Gerhart in from Minnesota to be the workhorse back, and they plan to feed him the ball a ton this season. Should Gerhart get injured, don’t be shocked if rookie Storm Johnson gets a good look in early-down work over Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson, who both project as more rotational types. Storm has major fumbling issues, though, so he’ll have to have a strong preseason to move up the depth chart. Todman will go into training camp as the top backup, and he answered the bell well as a versatile backup to Maurice Jones-Drew last season. Robinson will be looked at more to throw into certain personnel packages as a change-of-pace wrinkle, but Todman projects as the handcuff here unless Johnson and Robinson take significant steps forward. They could also sign a veteran back still.

Short-term handcuff: Jordan Todman
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
Kansas City Chiefs: RB Knile Davis could be the best handcuff in fantasy this season, as he’ll clearly be the go-to guy in this offense if Jamaal Charles goes down with an injury. Charles does just about everything for this offense as is, so Davis would step into a huge role, although he wouldn’t shoulder nearly all the responsibilities that Jamaal does. Davis impressed in his only start last season in Week Seventeen (27/81/2) and in the playoffs against the Colts (18/67/1, 7/33/1) when Charles went out with a concussion. Cyrus Gray is the #3 RB and barely played with Charles out of the lineup last season, and rookie De’Anthony Thomas will be used more as a receiver. Davis’ value would soar if Charles were to go down, as we think Davis would be a top-15 back because he’s a capable runner and receiver. Davis is very much worth drafting as protection for Charles owners, and he’s a really solid stash-and-hope pick late for all.
 
Short-term handcuff: Knile Davis
Long-term handcuff: Knile Davis
 
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins brought Knowshon Moreno in to be the lead back for 2014, but he’s had an absolute terrible off-season, capped with an arthroscopic knee surgery in June that could cost him some time in training camp. It now looks like Lamar Miller has a slight advantage for the starting job heading into training camp, but we could see yet another full-blown RBBC here in Miami. We also can’t forget that the underwhelming Daniel Thomas is still around to steal some touches, but he’ll likely be the clear #3 RB when Miller and Moreno are healthy. This is a backfield that needs to be watched in training camp to see if new OC Bill Lazor will actually give Miller a chance to start (with Moreno as the handcuff), something OC Mike Sherman never did in 2013.

Short-term handcuff: TBD
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
Minnesota Vikings: RB Matt Asiata had two solid showings with Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart out of the lineup last season, and he’ll have a leg up for the handcuff role with Gerhart gone this season. Asiata is a slow bruiser who can get it done in short yardage, and his top competition for the handcuff role is rookie Jerick McKinnon, who is a more versatile scatback type. McKinnon is looking like a better rotation player with Peterson as a third-down back and a change-of-pace runner. However, should Peterson get injured, Asiata should see the early-down work in a rotation with the more explosive McKinnon. Asiata, while not particularly gifted, can at least put up fantasy production when he has some volume. It’s also not out of the question that they wind up signing a veteran to compete for the job.
 
Short-term handcuff: Matt Asiata
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
New England Patriots: The Patriots have distinct roles for Shane Vereen as the #1 receiving back and Stevan Ridley as the #1 power back, but both players come with some major baggage (Ridley with fumbles, Vereen with injuries). Don’t be shocked to see James White get some playing time as a rookie (both Ridley and Vereen are in contract years), and it seems likely the Patriots will want to get a look at a potential successor. White looks like the potential handcuff for Vereen at least, as he’s a good receiver and strong in pass pro. RB Brandon Bolden played just OK in spots last season for both Vereen and Ridley, and he could be on the roster bubble in training camp. If promising UDFA Stephen Houston has a strong camp, he could push Bolden off the roster. Houston tips the scales at 225 pounds, and he could be the ideal power-back handcuff for Ridley, a role that LeGarrette Blount excelled in last season. Bolden and Houston will likely compete for the right to be Ridley’s handcuff.

Short-term handcuff: TBD
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
New Orleans Saints: The Saints lost Darren Sproles this off-season, but this backfield is still as congested as ever, with HC Sean Payton ready to use another full-blown RBBC. RB Pierre Thomas will fill more of Sproles void in the backfield, especially on third downs, so Thomas should still see the majority of touches in this backfield. However, WR Brandin Cooks could also steal some of Sproles’ old snaps, which could cut into Thomas’ productivity. RBs Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram will battle for touches as the primary runners.Robinson is a big, powerful back like Ingram, but Khiry has a little more speed and explosive ability, and he has the most potential to break out in this group. Travaris Cadet is a solid #4 RB, and he could be the potential handcuff if Thomas were to miss significant time. Thomas, Robinson, and Ingram will likely split the touches in this backfield, so volume won’t be there for all three RBS, keeping their fantasy value capped most weeks.

Short-term handcuff: TBD
Long-term handcuff: TBD

New York Giants: The Giant backfield looks better than last year – can it be any worse? But it could still be a fantasy headache. Vet Rashad Jennings was brought in on a multi-year deal to ostensibly be the starter, and he can play all three downs. Behind him, it’s messy. The Giants drafted intriguing rookie Andre Williams to back him up, re-signed Peyton Hillis, and are getting David Wilson back from injury (he’s been cleared). We tend to like Williams the best as Jennings’ handcuff, and he was getting goal-line work early in training camp, but he’s a terrible receiver and likely would have to come off the field in passing situations.

Short-term handcuff: TBD
Long-term handcuff: Andre Williams
 
New York Jets: We’re expecting a rotation in the Jet backfield this year, headlined by Chris Ivory in early downs/short yardage, and Chris Johnson in a third-down/passing situations role. Should Ivory go down (and he has had injury problems), CJ2K could end up handling a bigger workload, while Bilal Powell slides into a rotational role. If Johnson is out, Powell should get work on third-down at least. If Ivory is out, Powell should get work as their interior runner.

Short-term handcuff: Bilal Powell
Long-term handcuff: Bilal Powell
 
Oakland Raiders: We enter 2014 expecting Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden to rotate in this backfield, but both guys are older and injury-prone. So we’re going to be keeping an eye on Latavius Murray in camp. A talented downhill runner, Murray “redshirted” his rookie year last season, so it’ll be an important camp for him. But given the injury history of both backs in front of him, he should be a very intriguing late flyer if he makes this roster (he’ll be battling Jeremy Stewart and CFL star Kory Sheets).

Short-term handcuff: Darren McFadden/Maurice Jones-Drew  
Long-term handcuff: Latavius Murray (if top 2 are out)
 
Philadelphia Eagles: LeSean McCoy is the clear workhorse and focal point of the Eagles’ offense. Behind him, we have more questions. Darren Sproles was acquired, but it’s unlikely he could handle McCoy’s volume in the event Shady goes down. So we’re going to be watching an interesting camp battle between two unknown guys – Chris Polk and Matthew Tucker. Polk is a better receiver, but Tucker may be the more decisive, downhill runner, and Chip Kelly values that. He’s also a lot more explosive than Polk. Undrafted rookies David Fluellen and Henry Josey will have a shot to make an impact, as well.

Short-term handcuff: Chris Polk
Long-term handcuff: TBD
 
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have a pretty easy backfield to figure out. Le’Veon Bell is a powerful runner who can catch the ball, so he has three-down value. However, the Steelers added LeGarrette Blount to spell Bell in some short-yardage situations, and he’s almost certain to take over two-down work if Bell were to get hurt, so he’s the handcuff. Rookie Dri Archer is a tiny guy, but can handle third-down work and mismatches on linebackers.
 
Short-term handcuff: LeGarrette Blount
Long-term handcuff: LeGarrette Blount
 
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers got a career year out of Ryan Mathews last year, keeping him healthy by limiting his third-down snaps, despite employing him as a workhorse early-down back. But Mathews still got hurt in the postseason even after playing all 16 regular-season games, fighting through a high ankle sprain. That’s why Charger GM Tom Telesco shelled out money for Donald Brown on a three-year deal this off-season (Telesco knows Brown from his time in Indy). Brown is kind of a “double handcuff” – he can back up both Mathews and third-down stud Danny Woodhead.

Short-term handcuff: Donald Brown
Long-term handcuff: Donald Brown

San Francisco 49ers: The Niners have one of the NFL’s highest-volume run games, but their backfield is a personnel mess. Frank Gore is the starter, but he’s 31. Kendall Hunter is the most experienced backup, but he’s tiny and has strictly been a change-of-pace guy to this point. Marcus Lattimore is naturally gifted, but he is a wild card because of his awful injury history. LaMichael James will be lucky to make the team. That’s why we’re gravitating toward second-round rookie Carlos Hyde as the handcuff to own here. Remember, the Niners spent a high pick on him, despite what looked like a full backfield, at least on paper. Hyde was our favorite back in this draft, and the one who best projects to be a true three-down back in the NFL. If Gore slips, it’s a great spot for him.

Short-term handcuff: Kendall Hunter
Long-term handcuff: Carlos Hyde
 
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawk backfield has been discussed endlessly this off-season. Marshawn Lynch is getting up there in both age and carries, his play slipped a bit late last year, and he even threw some retirement comments against the wall (obviously, he didn’t follow through). Perhaps these things wouldn’t be a concern if the Seahawks didn’t have a super-gifted young backup in Christine Michael behind him. Remember, the Seahawks took Michael in the second round in 2013, despite already having Lynch and Robert Turbin on the roster, and coach Pete Carroll spoke to us about an increased role for Michael at the NFL Combine this year. While Turbin is solid, Michael’s the guy we want to own behind Lynch because he’s ridiculously talented and Seattle is very pleased with his progress.
 
Short-term handcuff: Christine Michael
Long-term handcuff: Christine Michael
 
St. Louis Rams: Zac Stacy was a revelation last year, but his value took a perceived hit when the Rams drafted Tre Mason in the third round in May. Mason was one of the most naturally gifted runners in the draft, and it can be argued he’s a more talented player than Stacy. But Mason has work to do in pass pro, and it’s possible that Benny Cunningham – a similar runner to Stacy who rarely goes down on first contact – actually gets the nod as the true “backup” here. Isaiah Pead is still on this roster, too, but he’s running out of chances.

Short-term handcuff: Benny Cunningham
Long-term handcuff: Tre Mason/Benny Cunningham
 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Just two years after Doug Martin was a fantasy superstar, the Buc backfield is officially crowded. Both Mike James and Bobby Rainey had varying degrees of success after Martin got hurt last year, and the Bucs spent a third-round pick in May on Charles Sims, a back who has similar skills to Matt Forte. New Buc offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford has expressed interest in rotating backs, so Martin and Sims appear to be the top two guys here. But James and Rainey will be battling it out for the #3 role, ostensibly the back-up job to Martin.

Short-term handcuff: Mike James /Charles Sims
Long-term handcuff: Charles Sims
 
Tennessee Titans: There isn’t exactly depth in this Titan backfield, which is why so many are excited about the fantasy prospects of Bishop Sankey, even if he doesn’t project physically as a true lead back. But it’s still possible that the plodding Shonn Greene is the Titans’ early-down and short-yardage option, while special-teams ace Jackie Battle could by default be Greene’s “handcuff.” Keep an eye on undrafted free agent Antonio Andrews for that role, as well. As for the backup to Sankey, vet Leon Washington may have the best shot.

Short-term handcuff: Shonn Greene
Long-term handcuff: Shonn Greene
 
Washington Redskins: Alfred Morris’ 2013 season can be considered a fantasy bust, but it was almost entirely a result of Washington’s playing from behind almost every game because Morris himself played well. That rendered Morris’ role almost useless after halftime – he’s the starter and early-down back here, but he gave way to Roy Helu, a better receiver and pass protector, in third-down and hurry-up situations. It remains to be seen if new coach Jay Gruden will rotate his backs as fervently as Mike Shanahan sometimes did, but Gruden’s usage of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati last season suggests he will. But it remains to be seen if there is a true “handcuff” here because Morris is by far the most gifted grinder on the roster. Helu, Chris Thompson, Lache Seastrunk, and Evan Royster are likely to battle it out in camp for roster spots, with Helu the heavy favorite for the #2 job.
 
Short-term handcuff: Roy Helu
Long-term handcuff: Roy Helu

Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Web: www.fantasyguru.com



To unsubscribe, click here
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)