Monday, July 14, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #17 (2014 PPR Gold)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #17
Published, July 14, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE: 

RECENT ARTICLES ONLINE NOW: 

UP NEXT:

  • Off-Season Report #18: 2014's Top Backups 
  • Off-Season Report #19 2014's TD Vultures

SUBSCRIBER NEWS:

2014 PPR Gold

Published, 7/14/14

 

By popular demand, we switched our site-default scoring system to a points-per-reception (PPR) format in the summer of 2013. It had been a very popular request in recent years, and in 2013, the demand finally became so overwhelming (over two-thirds of our subscriber poll respondents voted for PPR) that we made the change.

 

The point is this: The typical fantasy player feels that “more points = more fun.” As such, fantasy owners are more cognizant of how a player’s role and effectiveness in the passing game can greatly enhance his value. The purpose of this article is to simply recognize those players whose values are noticeably higher in the PPR format than in standard-scoring leagues.

 

Note: For instructions on how to create a non-PPR scoring system in less than five seconds, head here.

 

The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.

 

Running Backs

 

Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs

 

·         Jamaal Charles (KC)

·         Matt Forte (Chi)

·         Reggie Bush (Det)

 

Obvious PPR Studs

 

Le’Veon Bell (Pit) – We knew that Bell could be a good receiver out of the backfield before his rookie season, but he proved to be an even better receiver than anticipated, despite his huge frame (6’1”, 244 pounds). Bell is nimble and a good route-runner, and while he wasn’t perfection in the passing game, he showed pretty soft hands out of the backfield (68.2% catch rate). The Steelers brought in RB LeGarrette Blount this off-season, and he could take some early down work away from Bell. However, Blount won’t take many snaps away from Bell in the no-huddle and in obvious passing situations because Blount is worthless as a receiver. The Steelers did draft scatback Dri Archer as well, but he should take only a handful of snaps from Bell on third downs. The Steelers and QB Ben Roethlisberger had success running the no-huddle in the second half of last season, and they plan to run that even more this year, which looks like good news for Bell’s role in the passing game. Bell is still by far the best back in Pittsburgh, and with an extra year under his belt, he could be even more dangerous in PPR formats because of his versatility.

 

DeMarco Murray (Dal) – If healthy, which is always a stipulation with Murray, DeMarco is the Cowboys’ top back in every situation (early-down, third-down, short-yardage, goal-line). So it’s no surprise that Murray finished as a top-5 PPR RB last season, as he stayed relatively healthy for his standards, playing in a career-best 14 games. Murray played on 77% of the snaps last season, which could slip a little this season with OC Scott Linehan taking over the offense. Linehan wasn’t afraid to use multiple running backs in Detroit, so a guy like Lance Dunbar could be more involved. We also know just how much Linehan loves to throw the ball, so Murray could easily see more than his 66 targets from 2013, and he’s an excellent receiver with an outstanding 80.3% catch rate. We’re always going to worry about DeMarco’s availability, but he’s going to be a PPR stud if he can stay on the field for even 12-14 games.

 

Giovani Bernard (Cin) – Bernard is looking to build on a sensational rookie season, but this Bengal backfield got a little more complicated when the Bengals spent a 2nd-round pick on RB Jeremy Hill. Still, new OC Hue Jackson loves Gio, and Jackson realizes that Bernard is a special talent and needs to keep getting him the ball. Bernard touched the ball 226 times (including 56 catches) in 16 games, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 2 to 3 more touches per game. Bernard is the key to the Bengal screen game, and he could even see some time in the slot this season with Andrew Hawkins in Cleveland. Among RBs with 20 or more targets, only LeSean McCoy and Knowshon Moreno averaged both a higher catch rate (78.9%) and more yards per target (7.24) than Bernard did. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis is still in the mix for now, but he could/should be a roster casualty by the end of camp, so the Bengals could still be relying on just two RBs. Bernard certainly has more value in PPR formats, and he’s got a good chance to finish as a #1 RB in those formats.

 

Arian Foster (Hou) – New Texan HC Bill O’Brien sounds ready to ride Foster quite a bit this season, but the biggest question is whether Foster’s body is ready to handle the workload. O’Brien plans to use Foster as a true feature back, as he wants to play Foster in passing situations and limit backup RB Andre Brown to occasional early-down work. Foster has been an underrated receiver throughout his career, averaging 53 catches per season from 2010-12, so he’s certainly a PPR threat. It looks like QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will be in charge of this offense, at least in the early going, and he’s never been shy about dumping it off to his running backs. O’Brien told reporters during OTAs that Foster can handle the Danny Woodhead/Kevin Faulk role from his Patriot offenses, so Foster will be a major PPR factor if his back and hamstring hold up.

 

Upside PPR Options

 

Andre Ellington (Ari) – HC Bruce Arians made waves this past off-season when he suggested that Ellington could touch the ball 25-30 times this season. While Arians may have gone a little overboard with his touch totals, he clearly loves what he’s seen from Ellington, and we wouldn’t be surprised if he touched the ball 15-18 times a game. He handled the ball 10.5 times per game last season (including 39 catches), but the Cardinals believe that Ellington is more durable than they thought coming out of college. The Cardinals did add Jonathan Dwyer this off-season, and Stepfan Taylor could have a bigger role as a second-year player, so those two big backs could take some early-down work away from Ellington. Still, neither of those RBs brings much to the passing game, so Ellington will continue to excel as a receiver after averaging a ridiculous 6.56 YPT last season. Arians told us in February that he will continue to build his offense around Ellington’s versatility and also that he can play the WR position better than some of his WRs. We love that kind of versatility when looking for PPR players.

 

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Receiving Specialists

 

Pierre Thomas (NO) – Thomas led NFL RBs with 77 catches last season, so it’s hard to imagine that he’ll catch even more passes, despite RB Darren Sproles leaving New Orleans. The Saints have young RBs Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram ready to take on bigger roles in 2014, but HC Sean Payton will still rely heavily on Thomas in their screen game. The Saints and QB Drew Brees are the best at executing screen plays, and Thomas has become perfect at running the routes. Thomas caught a ridiculous 91.7% of his targets (77 of 84), so he’s likely to regress with his efficiency. Still, Thomas is overlooked almost every year in fantasy drafts, but he should get enough snaps and enough catches to be well worth a PPR investment as a #3 RB. Keep in mind the departed Sproles actually had more targets than Thomas, and those targets have to go somewhere.

 

Shane Vereen (NE) – Trying to figure out HC Bill Belichick’s running back rotations can be absolutely maddening, but at least Vereen’s role seems to be the most solidified heading into the season He can play in the backfield, in the slot, and out wide, so he has versatility that the other Patriot RBs don’t have. The Patriots did draft a potential replacement for him in 2nd-round pick James White, but he’s not nearly as dynamic a receiver as Vereen is. Shane averaged 5.9 catches per game last season, so he has an outside chance at 90+ catches if he can manage to play 16 games. He caught 68.1% of his targets (47 of 69) in 2013, a high number considering the number of downfield routes. He missed eight games because of a wrist injury suffered in Week One, but he caught the ball just fine when he returned to action. The Patriots did focus more on the running game in the final weeks of the season, but RB LeGarrette Blount is gone, and the Patriots should still throw it plenty with QB Tom Brady. Vereen has the most defined role in the Patriot backfield, and that gives him some upside as a #2 PPR RB.

 

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Underrated PPR Options

 

Fred Jackson (Buf) – We may have to nickname our guy Jackson as “Fredosaurus” or something because, at 33 years old, he’s a dinosaur at this point. But as he told us last fall, he actually wants to play 3-4 more years. Sure, most players want to extend their careers, but with Fred we’re not ruling it out. He’s still relatively young in football years, with 1138 carries in eight seasons. Jackson ended up playing 663 snaps to C.J. Spiller’s 389 this season. Spiller’s injury obviously played a role in the reduced role, but Jackson was also clearly the better pass protector and short-yardage back. Jackson finished the year with only 64 targets, but his 71.9% catch rate was very good. He was consistently reliable in terms of picking up yardage when he needed to, as he was stuffed at or behind the line on 5.3% of his runs, a really low number. Compare that to C.J. Spiller’s 14.9%, and it’s easy to see why Jackson got virtually all of the Bills’ short-yardage work. He’s an older player who could break down, but we’re sure he’s going to come through again in 2014 if healthy for this simple reason: Our source in Buffalo, and it’s a very good source, has informed us that HC Doug Marrone still doesn’t fully trust Spiller, and trust is a huge factor for Marrone. Pass protection is a huge element to that, and with QB EJ Manuel a year older, he should find Jackson as a receiver more often. The Bills also wound up third in the NFL in plays run last year, which bodes well for Jackson.

 

Montee Ball (Den) – Considered a strong pass-protector coming out of college, it took some time for Ball to begin anticipating QB Peyton Manning's audibles last season, so he should be much more comfortable protecting the franchise QB in year two. Ball has also displayed improved footwork during off-season workouts and better positioning during pass protection. While it’s a small sample with only 27 targets, Ball did double his catch rate percentage in the second half of the season (from 40% to 81.8), and he impressively caught 18 of his final 22 targets from Week Eleven through Week Seventeen. It’s more than fair to expect him to keep up that 3.1 targets/game pace from those final seven weeks with Moreno gone, and if he can pick up even 20 more targets with Moreno out of the mix, Ball has a very good chance to hit 50 catches if he can maintain a solid 75% catch rate, which was his season average. With very little behind Ball, the Broncos view him as the veteran of their group, so they are going “all-in” on him. And so should fantasy players looking for a reliable and productive back in Round One.

 

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Watch List


Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.

 

Bishop Sankey (Ten) – Sankey was a serious workhorse runner at Washington the last two seasons, but he also hauled in 61 passes the last two seasons, so he clearly has potential in the passing game as the assumed top back in this backfield. However, we have two main concerns with his PPR upside this year. The first is the presence of Dexter McCluster, whom the team views as a RB. In theory, he could play the Danny Woodhead role for new HC Ken Whisenhunt, who had Woodhead last year in San Diego. Additionally, we have doubts about QB Jake Locker’s ability and willingness to get the ball to their RBs as receivers. Typically, the final progression for a QB is the check-down to the RB, but Locker is more of a one-read guy. If his first (or second) read aren’t there, he tends to tuck the ball and run with it. While Chris Johnson did have a 4/71/1 game in the passing game in 2013, he also had two games with just 1/1 in the passing game and that was two of the three games in which Locker had 30 or more attempts last year. Back in 2012, when Locker played in 11 games, Johnson put up only 36/226/0 in the passing game and was just 24th in the league in RB targets, despite playing all 16 games. This is a concern for Sankey, so we’ll have to see how things look in the preseason.

 

Joique Bell (Det) – We loved Bell as a late-round pick last summer, and he certainly paid off for those who drafted him, even though he was a bit inconsistent at times. Bell could have a bigger role this season, but Reggie Bush is still expected to be the lead back. Still, the Lions clearly like Bell, and he should get plenty of opportunities to catch the ball in this offense. New OC Joe Lombardi was an assistant in New Orleans, so he won’t be afraid to get multiple backs involved in his offense, which could be good and bad for Bell. We could see Bell have some big weeks in which he’s heavily involved, but Lombardi could also get a third (Theo Riddick) and fourth (Mikel Leshoure) RBs involved. Bell was just as effective as a receiver (53/547, 76.8% catch rate) as Bush (54/506/3, 68.4%), but it could take well into the preseason to get a better feel for this backfield.

 

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Wide Receivers

 

Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs

 

·         Demaryius Thomas (Den)

·         Calvin Johnson (Det)

·         Dez Bryant (Dal)

·         A.J. Green (Cin)

·         Brandon Marshall (Chi)

·         Jordy Nelson (GB)

·         Julio Jones (Atl)

·         Wes Welker (Den)

 

Obvious PPR Studs

 

Antonio Brown (Pit) – Brown has turned into one of the best all-around receivers, despite being a bit undersized for his position. He excels all over the field, but he’s best in the underneath and intermediate areas, catching a bunch of passes and picking up a ton of YAC. He caught 66.7% of his targets (110 of 165) last year and averaged 9.08 YPT, both excellent marks for being by far the top target for QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is coming off arguably his best season as a passer, and OC Todd Haley’s short, quick passing game has greatly benefited Brown. Haley handed over more control of the offense to Big Ben in the second half of last season, which resulted in more passing game success in the no-huddle, and Haley has already said they’ll use a lot of no-huddle. He became the first NFL player to catch 5+ passes for 50+ yards in all 16 games, so Brown was the definition of a PPR stud last season. While we don’t expect Brown to duplicate that record this season, we don’t expect him to fall too far off the pace, and he’ll be a solid #1 WR in PPR formats.

 

Pierre Garcon (Was) – Garcon led the league in targets (181) and catches (113) last season because he didn’t have a whole lot of support at receiver for much of last season. That will change this year, as the Redskins added DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts at WR, and TE Jordan Reed will come into training camp healthy. While Garcon won’t see nearly as many targets this season, he should see more one-on-one situations and will have more opportunities for YAC. We still think that Garcon will remain the top target in Washington, and it won’t hurt that QB Robert Griffin III should be much healthier an extra year removed from his devastating knee injury. New HC Jay Gruden has also been a little pass happy at times in his West Coast schemes, so Garcon will have his chance to put up big PPR numbers. Garcon’s 62.4% catch rate and his 7.44 YPT were disappointing last season, but those marks should be on the rise this season, which will make up for his seeing fewer targets.

 

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Upside PPR Options

 

Julian Edelman (NE) – We pushed Edelman as a late-round pick last season primarily because we knew he was the only guy in the mix with a history with the QB and because he was the direct backup to the oft-injured Danny Amendola. Well, not only did Edelman fill in for Amendola, but Julian also stole the job with a break-out season as QB Tom Brady’s go-to receiver. Edelman has legitimate durability concerns, and the return of a possibly healthy Rob Gronkowski will take targets away from him. Still, Edelman proved that he was a better replacement for Wes Welker than Amendola was, and the Patriot slot receiver has been a fantasy goldmine with Brady at the helm. Edelman was the only WR in the league with 70 or more targets who caught 70% or more of his passes, as he hauled in 70.1% of his targets (105 of 149). Even Welker (68.2%) didn’t do that in his last year as a Patriot, although Welker averaged 7.83 YPT in 2012 while Edelman averaged 7.09. He won’t match his 151 targets or 105 catches, but Edelman earned the right to be Brady’s go-to slot receiver, which means he’ll have the opportunity to catch plenty of passes.

 

Kendall Wright (Ten) – Wright had a full-blown PPR breakout last season, hauling in 94 passes on 138 targets (68.1% catch rate/7.82 YPT). Among WRs with 80 or more targets, only Julian Edelman and Keenan Allen caught a higher percentage of their passes than Wright did. He emerged as the go-to receiver, beating defenders in the underneath and intermediate areas. However, there are a few things working against Wright this season, including the addition of Dexter McCluster, a new offense that will emphasize the run, and a full season of the shaky Jake Locker at QB (if he can stay healthy). New HC Ken Whisenhunt is coming over from San Diego, where they zeroed in on Keenan Allen last season, so Wright has the chance to be the focal point of this passing game. Second-year WR Justin Hunter also has the chance to emerge as a serious vertical threat, which would open things up for Wright underneath. He’s been drafted later than expected in early ADP numbers, but Wright could certainly catch a ton of passes once again if Whisenhunt features him the way the Chargers did with Allen.

 

Underrated PPR Options

 

Marques Colston (NO) – Colston certainly didn’t have his finest season, battling foot issues in 2013, but we at least liked what we saw from him in the second half of the year. As he got healthier last season, and as defenses really starting keying on TE Jimmy Graham, Colston ranked as the #16 PPR WR in the final eight games of the year, and the reports on his foot issues have been positive this summer. Opposing defenses started to really focus on TE Jimmy Graham at the end of last season, which opened things up for Colston, and we’d expect defense to be keyed on Graham once again this season. The Saints also lost RB Darren Sproles and Lance Moore this off-season, so QB Drew Brees could lean heavily on Colston while he gets acquainted with his new receivers. Colston’s rate stats (67.6% catch rate/8.5 YPT) weren’t that far off from 2012, when he posted 64.3%/8.95, so he just didn’t get as many opportunities with 21 fewer targets last season. We’re expecting Colston to be much more involved out of the gate in 2014, and his PPR performance should resemble his final eight games of 2013.

 

Jeremy Maclin (Phi) – The reports on Maclin out of Eagles’ OTAs have been glowing, so it looks like he’s back to full strength after his ACL injury last preseason. We loved Maclin last summer before his ACL tear, and we’re ready to get into his camp once again, especially since HC Chip Kelly loves Maclin’s versatility. Maclin is suddenly the team’s go-to receiver, and he’ll take over DeSean Jackson’s old Z spot, so Maclin should see plenty of action. We are a little concerned that there might not be enough balls to go around, as the Eagles will have LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles, Zach Ertz, Jordan Matthews, and Riley Cooper all demanding touches. Still, we think Chip will figure out how to get the ball to Maclin, and QB Nick Foles showed good chemistry with Maclin before Kelly arrived in 2012. Maclin will also feast against the weak secondaries in the NFC East, so while we’re not expecting Maclin to match Jackson’s absurd numbers (82/1332/9), Maclin’s got a chance for a standout PPR season.

 

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Watch List

Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.

 

Brandin Cooks (NO) – Cooks has the speed to work on the outside as a deep threat, and he has the short-area quickness to play inside and become a YAC guy. We’re not quite sure exactly how the Saints plan to use him, but he’ll likely do a little bit of everything in this offense. HC Sean Payton handpicked Cooks in the draft, so you know he wants to get the ball in the hands of his rookie WR. And QB Drew Brees said this summer that Cooks will be the primary replacement for RB Darren Sproles, a dynamic weapon for Brees the last few years. Cooks has the potential to take quite a few of the targets left behind by Sproles (89 targets) and Lance Moore (54), which makes him an appealing PPR option to go along with his big-play ability. We see Cooks as more than just a pure speed guy, and we expect him to get more than a few screens and underneath passes to make him a PPR guy. He can and will also line up outside and has a chance to moonlight as their deep threat, so there’s a lot to like about his chances. The Saints aren’t guaranteed to show us much about their plans for Cooks during the preseason, but we’ll be watching for any clues anyway.

 

Sammy Watkins (Buf) – The Bills drafted Watkins to be the team’s #1 WR immediately, so we fully expect him to get plenty of action and to be the focal point of this passing game next season. Watkins could make an immediate fantasy impact next season, as long as QB EJ Manuel is up to the task of getting him the ball on a regular basis. HC Doug Marrone also likes to run the ball plenty, which could hurt Watkins’ production as a rookie. Still, he’s a big run-after-the-catch guy, so they should design plays to get him the ball on short and well-defined routes, which will obviously help his PPR value. Watkins has the ability to make plays all over the field, but with Manuel’s limitations as a passer, Watkins could do more of his work on underneath routes early in his career.

 

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Tight Ends

 

Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs

 

·         Jimmy Graham (NO)

 

Obvious PPR Studs

 

Julius Thomas (Den) – Thomas is the most attractive early round TE pick for fantasy this season, as we could see Thomas being in the same tier as Jimmy Graham this year, but Julius is going two rounds later in early ADP. As long as Peyton Manning and Thomas stay healthy this season, the sky is the limit for the “basketball athlete,” especially with WR Eric Decker out of the mix. We can’t forget that Julius is still learning the game and the Bronco offense after playing just one season in college. Julius said this summer that Broncos will use him more creatively in 2014 simply because he knows the offense better and he can run more routes. He can obviously line up on the outside as a big wideout, which helps. Thomas caught an impressive 72.2% of his targets (65 of 90) and averaged 8.76 YPT. We’re inclined to think that Thomas’ will see triple-digit targets this season, which could help him finish in the top 5 in catches for TEs.

 

Jordan Cameron (Cle) – Cameron will be the #1 receiver for the Browns’ passing game this season, with WR Josh Gordon most certainly looking done for the season. Cameron managed 80 catches in 2013, despite a revolving door at quarterback last season. We like his chances to improve on his catch total with more targets and hopefully better QB play this season. He wisely changed his Twitter bio from tight end to “pass catcher” after the Jimmy Graham case, and Cameron is used quite a bit like Graham. The Browns aren’t afraid to line him up in the slot and out wide, and they could do it more often this season to create more mismatches for their best receiver. Cameron did lose TE-friendly Norv Turner this off-season, but new OC Kyle Shanahan has done well with Owen Daniels and Jordan Reed in the past, so Cameron should be a PPR producer this season. The biggest pitfall, other than an injury, is the rookie QB Johnny Manziel, who may hold Cameron back a little. But they have no choice but to make this stud the centerpiece of their offense, and they will.

 

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Upside PPR Options

 

Kyle Rudolph (Min) – Rudolph was a huge disappointment last season, thanks to a broken foot and inconsistent quarterback play in Minnesota. The position should have more stability this season, with Christian Ponder out of the mix and Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater competing for the job. We’re most excited to see Rudolph in a Norv Turner offense, as he’s gotten huge production from his tight ends throughout the years, including last season with Jordan Cameron (80 catches last year with three different QBs) in Cleveland. While Rudolph may not move as well as Cameron, Kyle is still more athletic than people give him credit, and he’ll be a huge target in the middle of the field for his QBs. Rudolph has some major PPR upside because his situation has improved dramatically, so we fully expect him to top career-high 53 catches from 2012. We’re probably rooting for Cassel for Rudolph, who produced fine totals the limited numbers of snaps he played with the veteran QB.

 

Jordan Reed (Was) – Reed burst onto the scene for about a five-week stretch last season, before flaming out in Week Twelve because of a concussion issue. He now has four concussions in four years between his time at the University of Florida and in Washington, so we’re obviously concerned about his health going forward. Still, Reed was on his way to one of the more impressive of rookie seasons for a TE in recent history, so he has a chance to be a special player if he can stay on the field. He was considered a little bit of a project entering the league, but he amazingly had 6 targets in Week One, catching 5 of them. The addition of WR DeSean Jackson should also keep opposing safeties deeper in the secondary, opening up things for Reed over the middle. QB Robert Griffin III has a chance for a bounce-back season in new HC Jay Gruden’s offense, and RGIII will be another year removed from his knee injury. Reed will be a huge factor in the middle of the field for RGIII. There are a lot of positive signs for Reed this season to become a PPR monster, but it will only matter if he can stay on the field.

 

Dennis Pitta (Bal) – We loved Pitta last summer before he got injured in training camp, and while we’re not as high on him this summer, he’s got a real chance to be PPR factor. The Ravens have added some weapons at receiver this off-season, with WR Steve Smith and TE Owen Daniels in the mix, which is why we’re not quite as high on Pitta this season. QB Joe Flacco looked a bit lost last season without his best friend Pitta on the field with him, and the TE wasn’t quite the same when he got back on the field for the last four games of the year. Pitta said this June that new OC Gary Kubiak’s offenses are set up for TEs “to catch a lot of footballs,” and we could see Pitta emerge as the #1 receiver ahead of Torrey Smith. He was in constant motion in formations during the off-season practices and is expected to line up in tight end alignments, split out wide and in the backfield, so Pitta should be a PPR factor for sure.

 

Underrated PPR Options

 

Martellus Bennett (Chi) – Bennett himself told us in February that he’s not a great fantasy option because the passing offense flows through three stud performers, but he did say he thinks he should get credit for his first-down receptions. And since he’s so adept at converting in key spots, his target total should remain solid. He was actually 9th in TE targets last year, and that number should be rising slightly simply because it’s the second year of the offense. Chicago also has a schedule that is noticeably better for the pass than it is the run. They do want to get #3 Marquess Wilson some more looks, but this is an offense that funnels most of its production through their top-4 weapons, with Bennett being one of them.

 

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Watch List

Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.

 

Zach Ertz (Phi) – Ertz certainly has upside appeal and breakout potential, but it’s tough to be all-in on him before the season starts. For one, TE Brent Celek is still around to take snaps away from him, and Celek is a strong blocker in a run-heavy offense. Secondly, the Eagles have a ton of guys to catch the ball between Darren Sproles, Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper, and Jordan Matthews. Still, Ertz is an athletic receiver, who has an extra year under his belt in Chip Kelly’s offense, which certainly gives him some PPR appeal late in fantasy drafts. We don’t mind taking a risk for a potential breakout player at TE, but we’d want to get a high-end backup in case Ertz is still a year away.

 

Eric Ebron (Det) – Ebron will get his chance to be fantasy relevant from Day One, as he should get plenty of opportunities to play because incumbent TE Brandon Pettigrew isn’t too special. Former Saint assistant and new Lion OC Joe Lombardi plans on using Ebron like the Saints did with Jimmy Graham, moving Ebron all over the field to create mismatches. The Lions should also continue to throw it plenty with QB Matthew Stafford leading the offense, so Ebron should have his opportunities. Rookie TEs don’t really have a strong track record of success in their first seasons, and he admitted in July that he was struggling to learn multiple positions. Still, he said that he played a lot out of the slot in OTAs, which could help catch a lot of balls, and Ebron isn’t your typical first-year TE.

 

Tyler Eifert (Cin) – Eifert didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first NFL season, but it’s only a matter of time until his high-end talent shines through. Eifert will still have to contend with another former 1st-round TE Jermaine Gresham for playing time and targets, but Eifert’s role is increasing. Eifert played 27% of his snaps out of the slot last season, and that number could be on the rise this season as new OC Hue Jackson tries to get him out away from the formation more often, especially with slot WR Andrew Hawkins gone. Eifert has the chance to be a high upside PPR backup, but we’d feel a lot better about him if he’s getting more opportunities than Gresham in the preseason.

 

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