Wednesday, July 16, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #18 (2014's Top Backups)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #18
Published, July 16, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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2014's Top Backups

Published, 7/16/14

 

In today’s specialized NFL that includes multiple RB, WR, and TE packages, it’s particularly hard to isolate those players who are clear backups and not simply complementary players. This article will try to highlight those players and detail why they have a chance to contribute if forced into the starting lineup.

 

There will always be players on our top backups list who wind up doing diddlysquat because we are trying to isolate low-end players with some legit upside, but you have to remember that almost all of these players need some help to make an impact. But it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a clear understanding of the league’s top backups. As we see year after year, players rise up their team’s depth charts during the season and help for fantasy.

 

As for our criteria for listing and ranking the following backups, we’re looking at a few factors: the starter’s injury history, the backup’s own ability to produce, his supporting cast, and also the possibility that the player in front of him on the depth chart has some non-injury issues.

 

Some players listed in this piece last year who made a positive and surprise fantasy impact, thanks to injuries or other circumstances, included Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rashad Jennings, Mike James, Joique Bell, Julian Edelman, Keenan Allen, Terrance Williams, Jarrett Boykin, Doug Baldwin, and Julius Thomas. So as you can see, profiling the league’s top backup players is a worthwhile endeavor, if for no other reason than to isolate players whose situations are worth keeping an eye on during the season.

 

Note: For brevity’s sake, we tried to ignore players who are projected to contribute in a significant rotational role or are currently given a decent shot of winning a starting job in camp. This article is strictly for players we view as clear backups and the players are listed in order of their chances of getting on the field, as well as their ability to produce if they do.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Mike Glennon (TB) – New HC Lovie Smith and OC Jeff Tedford didn’t exactly give their young QB a vote of confidence when they brought in Josh McCown this off-season to be the starter. McCown was a career backup until his breakout 2013 season in Chicago, so it looked like Glennon didn’t have much of a future in Tampa. However, feelings inside Buccaneer headquarters started to change during off-season workouts, as Glennon impressed the coaching staff heading into training camp. McCown has been a revelation so far and is still fully expected to open the season as the starter, but the coaching staff could be quicker to pull the trigger on McCown if he struggles. The Buccaneers have some intriguing offensive weapons, which is why we like McCown as a late-round pick. We also liked what we saw from Glennon at times last season, so he’s got paths to fantasy relevance since McCown is older (35) and doesn’t have much of a track record as a starter.

 

Ryan Mallett (NE) – Mallett will be Tom Brady’s backup for likely one last year, as he’ll become a free agent at the end of the season. The Patriots picked up their potential QB of the future by selecting Jimmy Garoppolo in the 2nd round, but Mallett will still be the backup while the Pats groom the rookie. With several years in this system on his resume, Mallett would have some potential in this offense if Brady would go down with an injury, but Brady never leaves the field, outside of his season-ending knee injury in 2008. We don’t even like Brady that much for fantasy this season, but Mallett would still be a coveted Waiver Wire guy if he sees extended playing time. Mallett would certainly have motivation if he gets on the field, as he could earn a hefty pay raise next off-season, much like Matt Flynn did with his Week Seventeen performance with the Packers back in 2011.

 

Zach Mettenberger (Ten) – Titan QB Jake Locker is in the final year of his rookie deal, and he certainly hasn’t earned a new contract from the organization as he enters his fourth season. Mettenberger isn’t considered much of a threat to win the starting job out of training camp, and he might even be behind Charlie Whitehurst early in the season. However, Locker’s career has been littered with injuries and inconsistent play, so Mettenberger has a solid chance to get on the field later in the year when the Titans could be in evaluation mode with their 6th-round QB. The Titans want to be a run-first team behind their strong O-line, but Mettenberger has some nice receiving weapons in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. Mettenberger has a real shot to be the Titans’ QB of the future, and we think he has the NFL attributes (huge arm, willingness to stand in pocket) to be fantasy relevant when he plays.

 

Matt Flynn (GB) – It appears that Flynn can only play well in this Packer offense, as he’s been a major disappointment everywhere else outside of Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers’ fantasy owners don’t need to handcuff him in drafts, but Flynn appears to be one of the better handcuff options because of his comfort level in this Packer offense. Flynn ended up saving the Packers’ season by replacing an injured Seneca Wallace and an ineffective Scott Tolzien (who Flynn probably still has to officially beat out for the backup spot). He led the Packers to two comeback wins and a tie that helped to keep the Packers’ afloat with Rodgers out of the lineup. Flynn threw for 1392/8/5, averaging just 15.4 FPG in seven games, so he didn’t do nearly enough for fantasy purposes. Still, the Packers are still pretty loaded with offensive talent, so he has the chance to put up numbers throwing to some stud receivers. If Rodgers misses an extended period of time once again in 2014, Flynn would probably be worth picking up in the majority of fantasy leagues.

 

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Watch List:

 

Jordan Palmer/Jimmy Clausen (Chi) – It looks like Palmer and Clausen will battle into training camp for this coveted back-up role in Marc Trestman’s offense. We saw 34-year-old Josh McCown become a bit of an unexpected fantasy stud last season when he stepped into the lineup for Jay Cutler, so this is an important back-up role. Cutler has now missed 13 games in the last four seasons, so there’s a good chance that Palmer or Clausen will see some action at some point this season. This is an ideal situation to step into with two stud WRs in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, a good offensive line, and a creative offensive mind running this team. The Bears drafted rookie David Fales in the 6th round, but he’s seen as more of a project for the future. Trestman did work with Clausen before the 2010 draft, so he does have a history with him, but Palmer does have the advantage of learning Trestman’s system last season. No matter who gets the nod, the Bear backup QB has the potential for fantasy value, even if it’s one of these scrubs.

 

Brandon Weeden (Dal) – Weeden certainly hasn’t lived up to his 1st-round draft status, and he’s already been relegated to back-up duties behind Tony Romo in his third NFL season. However, Weeden will actually have a chance to succeed in this Cowboy offense, as he’ll play behind a good O-line with a strong running game and solid weapons at receiver. Weeden is vulnerable to pressure up the middle, but the Cowboy OL looks like a top-5 unit and has two #1 picks lining up inside. Last season’s back-up QB Kyle Orton is trying to retire, but he’s also trying to keep $3 million of his signing bonus, and the Cowboys are refusing to let him out of his contract. We’ll see if Orton ultimately decides to show up for training camp and play this season, but the Cowboys could still elect to make him the #3 QB even if he shows up. If Weeden is, in fact, the backup out of training camp, his body of work makes him nothing more than a possible WW add if Romo is out, but we’re not ready to totally write him off in this solid situation.

 

Running Backs

 

Christine Michael (Sea) – The Michael hype train has been at full steam for a couple months now, amidst rumors that Marshawn Lynch may hold out or had considered retirement, neither of which has much basis at this point. But what does have basis is the fact that Lynch is a physical back who is getting a little bit older, and has added a lot of playoff work to his wheels in recent years, to boot. Seahawk coach Pete Carroll told us at the NFL Combine that Seattle is hyped up about Michael, a high draft pick in 2013 who has the talent to be a true three-down back in the league. What’s also very encouraging for Michael, who has had some off-field issues, is that the team is very pleased with his work and development, and everyone already knows he’s bursting with talent. Should Lynch slip at all, Michael could blow past the more pedestrian Robert Turbin to become a really appealing get for fantasy.

Knile Davis (KC) – Davis could be the best handcuff in fantasy this season, as he’ll clearly be the go-to guy in this offense if Jamaal Charles goes down with an injury (Charles does just about everything for this team as is). The Chiefs could also be inclined to use him more this season after using him sparingly and running Charles into the ground last season. Davis impressed in his only start last season in Week Seventeen (27/81/2) and in the playoffs against the Colts (18/67/1, 7/33/1) when Charles went out with a concussion. Davis averaged just 3.5 touches per game before Week Seventeen, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see him get 8-10 touches per game in 2014, so he might actually have value no matter what for those in larger/deeper leagues. Davis’ value would soar if Charles were to go down, as we think Davis would be a top-15 back because he’s a capable runner and receiver. Davis is very much worth drafting as protection for Charles owners, and he’s a really solid stash-and-hope pick late for all.

Carlos Hyde (SF) – We had Hyde as our #1 back pre-draft, so on draft night it was a little bit of a bummer to see him land somewhere he is, ostensibly, buried. But is he really? Frank Gore is in his 30s, Kendall Hunter is a change-of-pace back, LaMichael James seems to be in the doghouse, and Marcus Lattimore may never be healthy again. It’s entirely plausible to think that if Gore were to wear down or get hurt, the rookie Hyde could step into a heavy-usage role in a run-first offense. He’s going to have monster handcuff appeal, even to fantasy players who don’t own Gore.

 

James Starks (GB) – Second-year stud Eddie Lacy isn’t exactly the easiest guy to duplicate on the football field, but Starks actually ran a lot like the Packer starter last season. He picked up 54% of his yards after contact, so he can be a bruising runner like Lacy, while also having some surprising open-field vertical burst. Starks ran for 132 yards and a TD in Week Two, a game Lacy left early, so he has shown he can be a viable handcuff if needed off the Waiver Wire. RB Johnathan Franklin’s career came to abrupt end because of a neck injury, so Starks is firmly ahead of DuJuan Harris as the top backup. Starks could be a handcuff option late in fantasy drafts for Lacy owners, but he’d at least be a must-own if Lacy went down for any length of time. It appears they team has found the perfect role for him coming off the bench, so he might have a speck of value even if Lacy is healthy.

 

Andre Brown (Hou) – The Texans signed Brown this off-season to be the primary backup for Arian Foster, and it’s fair to wonder just what Foster has left in the tank after his back surgery last season. Still, we can’t overlook Brown’s own injury history, so he’ll need to stay healthy to hold off young RBs Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes, and Dennis Johnson. HC Bill O’Brien has already said that he wants to use Brown on only early-down work, but he can be an every-down back and Brown usually gets what’s blocked for him at least when carrying the ball. Brown could see close to 8 touches per game as a backup because the Texans will lean heavily on their running game. Brown is a good handcuff for Foster owners because he’s shown he can be strong for fantasy in spurts, as he’s shown the last two seasons when he hasn’t been hurt himself.

10 MORE INCLUDED IN THIS SECTION ONLINE, SUBSCRIBE TODAY FOR THE FULL ARTICLE! 

 

Watch List:

 

Joseph Randle/Ryan Williams (Dal) – Randle looked terrible last year in limited opportunities, and Williams has played a total of five games in three NFL seasons. That said, this will be a semi-interesting camp battle to follow because DeMarco Murray is often injured, and it appears likely new Cowboy playcaller Scott Linehan will like to use a two-back system with Murray and the talented Lance Dunbar, a player we really like this year. Should Murray get injured again, either Randle or Williams could have a rotational role alongside Dunbar in this offense if they can avoid tripping over themselves in camp. We really don’t know if Williams will ever be the same, but we can say this: Williams at his best could easily surprise based on his talent and the strong talent around him, which is significantly better than anything Williams ever played with in Arizona.

 

Ahmad Bradshaw/Vick Ballard (Ind) – The Colts have one of the messiest backfields in the NFL as we stand right now. Trent Richardson is the presumed starter, but he’s coming off a complete nightmare season. Ballard and Bradshaw have been productive in the past, but both are coming off season-ending injuries (Ballard an ACL, Bradshaw a neck injury). Given the injury history for Ballard and Bradshaw, Ballard’s overall lack of explosive talent, and the cost the Colts paid for Richardson, it’s no surprise the Colts will enter the preseason with Richardson as their #1 guy. But this is a battle to watch because the Colts can’t afford to keep pumping the ball to Richardson if he struggles the way he did a season ago. If we had to guess, we’d guess Bradshaw would be the next man up if they wanted to feature someone else in the backfield, and we’ll just have to see about Ballard’s comeback.

 

Theo Riddick/Mikel Leshoure (Det) – Both Lion coaches and players are talking up Riddick, insinuating the former college WR could have a significant role as a receiver in Joe Lombardi’s rotation-heavy offense. If so, consider Riddick more the Reggie Bush type in this offense, while Leshoure (if he makes the team) could be more of the Joique Bell bruiser without the receiving ability. Keep an eye on both of these guys in camp. Riddick could vault himself into a solid regular role, while Leshoure needs to impress to stay on the roster.

 

Chris Polk/Matthew Tucker (Phi) – The Eagles traded Bryce Brown during the NFL Draft, and with Darren Sproles likely not being a true “handcuff” for Shady McCoy, you’d think they were giving Polk a strong endorsement. But not so fast… Polk is coming off shoulder surgery, and we’ve been told that the Eagles really like Tucker, a second-year pro from TCU who projects as a decisive downhill runner. Keep an eye on this competition in camp – Polk may be a better receiver, but Tucker is the more talented runner.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Note: Again, we are listing only players who are clear backups, which removed active role players at this position from the equation. We obviously have those players covered and ranked with all WRs in our projections.

 

Cody Latimer (Den) – The Broncos drafted Latimer with hopes that he’ll be ready to make major contributions by 2015 when Wes Welker could potentially leave via free agency. The Broncos clearly have plans for the future outside receiver, and it’s not out of the question that his timeline could be pushed up to the 2014 season. Latimer could show the Broncos that he’s ready to play this season with a strong preseason, or Welker could run into more concussion issues, which would slide Emmanuel Sanders inside to the slot. Latimer is a talented player worth watching in Denver from Day One because he could put up numbers right away if he gets playing time with Peyton Manning. The bottom line is that he’s likely their new Eric Decker no later than 2015.

Davante Adams (GB) – Adams is the type of well-rounded WR that the Packers have had a lot of success drafting the last decade. Rookie wide receivers in Green Bay don't usually put up numbers, but Adams is a really solid receiver who's more than capable of exceeding expectations and playing. He did struggle a bit with drops during OTAs, but he didn’t drop many passes and put up some massive numbers at Fresno State. WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have dealt with injury issues in recent seasons, so he has a chance to get on the field. Adams is also more talented than #3 WR Jarrett Boykin, so he could eventually push for playing time during the season once he learns the offense. We all know that any receiver who sees regular playing time with Aaron Rodgers has a chance to put up fantasy production, so there is hope for Adams this season.

Martavis Bryant (Pit) – Ben Roethlisberger has been clamoring for a big WR for the last several years, and he finally got his man when the Steelers drafted Bryant in the 4th round in May. Bryant has the chance to emerge as a red-zone weapon and as an occasional deep-threat option, so he’s got a couple of paths to fantasy relevance this season. He also has an outside chance to start at the X in Week One, if Markus Wheaton doesn’t develop and seize control of the job out of training camp. The Steelers could also consider playing Lance Moore in 2-WR sets with Antonio Bryant, so the competition for the X receiver will be one of the more intriguing camp battles. Bryant is really raw and is clearly behind Wheaton and Moore, but he’s a rare physical freak, and the Steelers could look to take advantage of his attributes early in his career.

 

DeVier Posey (Hou) – The Texans thought highly of Posey when they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2012, but his career has yet to get on track, limiting him to just 23 catches in his first two seasons. He tore his Achilles during his rookie season, but now he’ll be two years removed from the injury, so Posey should be totally healthy. The Texans also have no WR depth behind Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, so he’s the #3 WR basically by default. The Johnson situation is also starting to come to a head, and while we still think Andre will be in a Texan uniform to start the year, the situation gets a little more uncertain with every passing day. Posey could be in line for a dramatically larger role if Andre doesn’t play for the Texans this season, as he’d likely step into a starting role. Either way, Posey will start the year at full health, and he’ll get a fresh start with HC Bill O’Brien, so he’s got the chance to contribute and be fantasy relevant. We can tell you from asking Gary Kubiak about Posey at the 2013 combine that the former Texan head coach was very high on him.

 

Marlon Brown (Bal) – Brown emerged in the Raven offense as a big, strong possession receiver, and a weapon QB Joe Flacco needed when they traded WR Anquan Boldin to the 49ers last season. However, the Ravens brought in Steve Smith to play across from Torrey Smith, so Brown could be limited to 3-WR sets, which haven’t always been plentiful in Gary Kubiak’s offenses. So we view Brown as more of a traditional backup than a rotational player who should get a lot of snaps. Brown is at least a weapon in the red zone, so he still should be used in the endzone. Steve Smith, 35, also didn’t blow anybody away with his play last season with the Panthers, so he’ll need to play better to stay ahead of Brown on the depth chart. Brown still need to polish his game and become a more complete receiver, but he looks legit in terms of sticking on this Raven roster as at worst their #3 WR, so he could need only an injury to another receiver to have a chance to be viable for fantasy.

 

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Watch List:

 

Donte Moncrief/Da’Rick Rogers (Ind) – The Colts have two of the more physically intriguing young outside receivers in the league, as both Moncrief and Rogers have huge upsides. Both receivers also have potential to flame out, so they are two boom-or-bust prospects for 2014. The rookie Moncrief might need a season to really develop into an impact NFL receiver, but Andrew Luck is a quarterback who can get the most out of his receivers immediately and Moncrief flashed in the OTAs this spring. Rogers also flashed a few times late last season after he came to Indy from Buffalo, but he is still a work-in-progress. The good news is that the Colts signed Hakeem Nicks to just a one-year deal, so it appears that they want to give Moncrief and Rogers chances to eventually emerge in this offense. The camp battle between Moncrief and Rogers could be important, as Nicks’ injury history is well documented, so we’ll have to see if Rogers or Moncrief would benefit the most here if the Colts have an injury at WR.

 

Ryan Broyles (Det) – Broyles has suffered major injuries in three of his last four seasons dating back to college, so he’s pretty tough to rely on, but at least he’s shown that he’s a quick healer. He has suffered two ACL tears and a torn Achilles, and he’s been working this summer to try to regain his explosiveness. Broyles is still the favorite to win the #3 WR job, behind Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but the Lions could be running more 2-TE sets this season. Broyles’ injury history is really bad, but he’s been a resilient young player just to make it to this point in his career, and it’s not like the Lions have a ton of depth behind Megatron and Tate. Broyles, when healthy, is a solid receiver who can play on the outside and can be a volume receiver from the slot, but he’ll need an injury in front of him to see that volume.

 

Travis Benjamin (Cle) – Benjamin might be in the mix for playing time because of the Browns’ poor depth at wide receiver, and he might become the team’s deep threat with Josh Gordon more than likely being suspended for the season. Benjamin is still recovering from an ACL surgery from last November, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season. The Browns can certainly use his speed in a weak group of receiver, which includes Andrew Hawkins, Miles Austin, Nate Burleson, and Charles Johnson. Benjamin didn’t get many chances to make an impact as WR last season in eight games, but he averaged 21.3 YPC on 18 catches as a rookie in 2012. Benjamin could be destined to be the team’s situational deep threat once again this season, and he has a chance for even more fantasy relevance if Cleveland gets even thinner at receiver.

 

John Brown (Ari) – Cardinal HC Bruce Arians certainly likes his speedsters to stretch opposing defenses, and his latest toy was the relatively unknown Brown out of Division II’s Pittsburg State. He previously worked with Mike Wallace in Pittsburgh and T.Y. Hilton in Indianapolis, who were both 3rd-round picks like Brown. Arians got 39/756/6 out of Wallace as a rookie in 2009 and 50/861/7 out of Hilton as a rookie in 2012, so Brown certainly has a path to fantasy relevance working with Arians. However, the Cardinals also signed Ted Ginn this off-season, and he offers similar skills to Brown but with several years of extra experience. Brown is a bit of a long shot to make major contributions this year with Ginn in front of him as the #3 WR – and they won’t use a ton of 3-WR sets – but it’s not like Ginn has been a special WR. Brown could surprise if he gets snaps, and Arians clearly likes him and has plans for him since he reached a bit to draft him.

 

Tight Ends

 

Jacob Tamme (Den) – Virgil Green is younger and bigger, but to this point in his NFL career, he’s focused more on blocking. So if Julius Thomas were to go down – and he did miss a couple games with injury last year – our guess is the veteran Tamme would be the guy the Broncos plug in. But always remember what happened last year – in a game Thomas was out in Week Thirteen, Tamme caught only 1 pass a week after a big game in Week Twelve (they wound up featuring #4 WR Andre Caldwell). As a veteran playing with Peyton Manning, though, Tamme should be a popular handcuff in the event Thomas goes down, on a streamer for other players.

 

Gavin Escobar (Dal) – A second-round pick a year ago, Escobar was barely used, hauling in only 9 passes. But on those 9 catches, he had 134 yards and 2 TDs, showcasing briefly some of the elite athletic ability that pushed the Cowboys to draft him in the first place. In 2014, Escobar will have the benefit of the tutelage of TE coach Mike Pope, a good TE coach who comes over from the Giants. Jason Witten is a year older, of course, but he’s still productive. That said, Escobar has amazing talent (more than another young TE on the roster, James Hanna), and his role is expected to increase this year. If Witten’s age were to show, Escobar has a shot a big numbers as long as they can work around his lack of solid blocking and utilize his high-end receiving skills.

 

Ryan Griffin (Hou) – Griffin may be #3 on the Texans’ depth chart behind Garrett Graham and C.J. Fiedorowicz, but he’s just one injury or poor performance away from relevance because we expect new coach Bill O’Brien to use 2-TE sets heavily. Given that and the general unhappiness of star WR Andre Johnson, it’s important to keep Griffin on your radar. He may not be as strong at the in-line TE position as the rookie Fiedorowicz, but he’s a better overall mover than Graham and may be a more natural receiver. Griffin can really do it all. The overall point is this: #3 on the depth chart isn’t too bad when an injury to #1 or #2 will thrust a guy into the lineup.

 

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Watch List:

 

Tony Moeaki (Buf) – Moeaki is a talented guy, but he’s struggled majorly with injuries in his career. And the key to his 2014 season is just that – he needs to prove he can stay on the field. If he can, he’s got a shot to unseat the boring but effective Scott Chandler. If he can’t, Chandler will likely start, young Chris Gragg will get a shot, and Moeaki could find himself off the roster.

 

Demetrius Harris (KC) – Harris is a long shot, but the Chiefs kept him on the practice squad last year and recently have seen him bulk up to near 260 pounds, which looks imposing on his massive 6’7” frame. A former basketball player at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, we’re watching Harris because the opportunity could be there for snaps. The Chiefs’ skill position depth is really lacking, and there are questions at tight end. “Starter” Anthony Fasano runs like he’s carrying Dontari Poe on his back, and another young prospect Travis Kelce missed all of last season after microfracture surgery. Harris is someone to watch in the preseason because hitting on just one of these elite basketball athletes can set you up for years in a dynasty league.

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