Thursday, July 10, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #16 (2014's Contract Year Players)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #16
Published, July 10, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE: 

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  • Off-Season Report #17: 2014's PPR Gold (Next week)
  • Off-Season Report #18: 2014's Top backups (Next week)

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2014 Contract Year Players

Published, 7/9/14

 

If you want it put frankly, the notion of a “contract year” being a major motivating factor for a player has no real statistical backing in the grand scheme of things.

 

That doesn’t mean it hasn’t led to big years from players in the past; it’s just that the proof is more anecdotal than indisputable by the numbers. It’s impossible to find out which player will be affected, or to generalize and assume a player will be motivated for a big year when he’s in the final year of his contract (see: Nicks, Hakeem in 2013). Given that information, it’d be foolish to predict a player listed in this article will produce a fantasy explosion just because he wants to get paid.

 

But for fantasy players, the true value may be in trying to get inside the heads of teams – namely, which situations warrant deeper looks. Do the Chiefs, Cardinals, or Titans want to get a look at younger QBs at some point this season? Do the Patriots want to see what rookie RB James White can do? Did the Packers draft multiple WRs for a reason in 2014?


Additionally, it’s important to know the contract status of big-name players for keeper and dynasty owners. Readers of our 2013 Contract Year article may have been inclined to ship off Eric Decker at his highest potential value, before he went from Peyton Manning to the Jets’ uncertain QB situation.

 

When breaking down a player, consider his contract status way down the list of things that matter, if you even consider it at all. But for teams, opening up options for the future in anticipation of impending free agency could actually be a bigger deal.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Alex Smith (KC, 30) – Smith did a fine job in his first year with the Chiefs last year, but he is looking for an extension before the start of this season instead of dealing with the franchise tag in 2015. According to ESPN, the Chiefs aren’t expected to offer more than $15 million per year. While that franchise tag is an option, HC Andy Reid didn’t express much concern about a deal getting done and doesn’t think Smith is too worried about it, either. Smith is a reliable QB, but he needs to be managed and won’t be one to win games on his own. They have some interesting developmental options in Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, and Aaron Murray behind him on the depth chart, but we’d expect Smith and the Chiefs to work something out, barring a total collapse in 2014 after what’s been a productive last three years. Smith might also have some leverage because KC gave up two 2nd-round picks for him.

 

Andy Dalton (Cin, 26) – Three playoff appearances in three years haven’t been enough to earn Dalton a contract extension yet, but discussions have taken place and the team would like to figure out something, although they may have some trepidation about giving the up-and-down Dalton huge money. While the playoff appearances have been nice, Dalton’s play in those games hasn’t been very good and you could argue he’s been the primary cause for the early exits. Still, NFL playoff QBs don’t grow on trees. While he’s coming off career-high almost across the boards, he also saw his interceptions rise once again, hitting an ugly 20 last year. If a deal doesn’t get done before the season, Dalton will certainly be playing for a lot in 2014, but look for a deal to be done by Week One. That would not be good news for rookie QB A.J. McCarron.

 

Carson Palmer (Ari, 34) – While Palmer is scheduled to make $10 million in 2015, his contract does void after the 2014 Super Bowl, so it technically could be his final season with the Cardinals, although by all indications, he will return with HC Bruce Arians saying Palmer could play until he’s 36 or 37. We tend to agree after Palmer had a fine first season in Arizona and the team seems to be heading in the right direction. The Cardinals don’t have much on their depth chart if they’re looking for a long-term answer at QB other than developmental rookie, Logan Thomas, who was selected in the 4th-round of this year’s draft and looks like a down-the-road prospect (although a very intriguing one).

 

Jake Locker (Ten, 26) – With multiple injuries and only a flash of solid play in his three seasons, Locker will be trying to prove to the new Titan coaching staff he should remain the starter in Nashville as he tries to earn a new deal. He’s played just 23 games in his first three seasons and is coming off Lisfranc surgery, so it’ll be a tough road back, although he’s been able to work at all the OTAs and will top the depth chart when training camp rolls around. The team has been happy with him and his progress this off-season, particularly his footwork. But they’d like for him to be more of a pocket passer in their system, and that might be a tall order. Rookie QB Zach Mettenberger slipped all the way to the Titans in the 6th round and is battling back from a torn ACL, so while he might not be ready for this year, he should be the one who takes over for Locker in 2015 if the team decides to go in another direction. We believe Mettenberger has the physical tools and the moxie to be a quality starter, so if he’s ready and Locker struggles, the rookie could get the call.

 

Ryan Mallett (NE, 26) – Mallett hasn’t gotten a chance to show what he can do playing behind Tom Brady in New England, and barring a significant injury to Brady in 2014, Mallett will become an intriguing free agent in 2015. While trade rumors seem to always swirling around Mallett, the team has hung onto him and claims it didn’t want to move him in the off-season. But they lose control of his future this March because he’s entering the fourth and final year of his rookie deal signed in 2011. Obviously, the Pats selected Jimmy Garoppolo in the 2nd round of this year’s draft and still have Brady, who will likely play a few more seasons, so Mallet is gone in 2015. Barring a trade in the preseason, Mallett will serve as Brady’s primary backup once again before hitting the market in 2015, where he should draw interest for those willing to take a shot on a player who certainly looks the part, but hasn’t had a chance to prove his worth and any improvements he’s made since coming out of Arkansas in 2011.

 
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Running Backs

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

 

DeMarco Murray (Dal, 26) – The Cowboys are crossing their fingers that Murray stays healthy in 2014. Heck, the Cowboys would probably be thrilled if Murray gives them no choice but to re-sign him this off-season. He had his best year in 2013, contributing in a major way as both a runner and receiver, but he’s never played in more than 14 games and most projections with Murray have to build some injury time in. That said, if Murray can stay healthy and productive, the Cowboys may have no choice but to offer him good money to stick around because they don’t exactly have elite depth behind him. As of late June, the sides weren’t talking new deal, so it appears the Cowboys aren’t yet sold on Murray’s ability to stay healthy. But he can be the centerpiece of this offense if he does stay on the field, and that can be worth big bucks. Murray in June said he wants to play in Dallas “forever,” but for that to happen, he has to remain available.

 

C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson (Buf, 26 and 33) – The Bills either aren’t planning on re-signing Spiller and Jackson, or they simply don’t trust them. That’s why they traded a conditional pick to Philly during April’s draft to acquire Bryce Brown, a player on whom Philly soured but the Bills remain really upbeat (they had better be upbeat because the 4th- round pick they gave Philly can become a third-rounder). And there are no indications that the Bills plan on giving Spiller, 26, a contract before he proves himself worthy of one this year. Jackson, of course, is 33 and is likely to be playing on one-year deals from here until his retirement anyway. He did tell us last November he wants to play 3-4 more years, for what it’s worth. The big motivation should be for Spiller, who needs to rebound from an injury-plagued season and prove himself indispensable to Doug Marrone and this coaching staff. We’re told they have some concerns about his availability, so it’s a big year for him.

 

Ryan Mathews (SD, 27) – Like DeMarco Murray, Mathews has to prove he can stay healthy before the Chargers make any major financial commitment to him. Unlike Murray, there seems to be a cushion built in for the Chargers to lose Mathews – they just signed Donald Brown to a three-year deal. While he played a full 16-game schedule last year, Mathews dealt with a high ankle sprain in the playoffs and wasn’t available for most of San Diego’s postseason run, so durability remains a concern (he was also practicing with his elbow and upper arm wrapped in June). Mathews will enter his contract year with added muscle and at his heaviest playing weight, around 225 pounds, which should help him absorb the hits he took as a true foundation back last year. He seems to know his place on this roster, and if he’s healthy, the Chargers can run their offense through him – he led the NFL with 107 carries over the final four weeks of the 2013 regular season. For Mathews, 2013 was nice but in 2014 it’s even more critical to remain on the field and to not only suit up each week but also to not disappear for quarters at a time, as he’s done in the past.

 

Shane Vereen (NE, 25) – Vereen is the more explosive and talented of the Patriots’ two free-agent-to-be backs (the other being Stevan Ridley), but what’s funny is the Patriots may have a more obvious Vereen replacement in the pipeline in rookie James White. Vereen’s key to earning big money this year is obvious: stay healthy. He missed eight games last year with a wrist injury, an injury that he admitted was still bothering him in spring. Obviously, for a player whose pass catching is his calling card, a wrist injury isn’t exactly the easiest injury to get over. However, if Vereen is good to go by September, and there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be, we believe the Patriots will find him rather indispensable as a moveable chess piece.

 

Stevan Ridley (NE, 25) – Ridley has a frequent-guest suite in Bill Belichick’s doghouse, but he’s also the Patriots’ most viable two-down back if he can manage to hold on to the football. We’re pushing him as a potential mid-round redraft value for just that reason, and it’s not hard to see Ridley scoring 10 TDs for the Pats this year and earning himself a solid new deal. The Pats seem totally content letting Ridley play the year out on the final year of his deal, which seems prudent, and they’re also adding depth behind him, drafting James White out of Wisconsin this year. But if Ridley plays up to his ability, we could see him back in Foxboro on a multi-year deal.

 

Knowshon Moreno (Mia, 27) – Moreno’s contract year is already off to a rousing start – he showed up to the Dolphins’ minicamps out of shape, and a bothersome knee injury required a late June scope, likely keeping him out into training camp. Of course, Moreno probably doesn’t buy the “contract-year theory” anyway, given he had a career year last year at 26 and still could find only a one-year contract on the open market. Perhaps the NFL’s opinion of Moreno rises if he manages to have a good year without Peyton Manning, but he’s got a serious uphill climb.

 

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Restricted Free Agents

 

Jordan Todman (Jac, 24) – Todman flashed last year, but he’ll have to compete for snaps in a rebuilt Jacksonville backfield in 2014. He’ll play behind Toby Gerhart, and will be battling it out with Denard Robinson and Storm Johnson for a back-up role. Best as a third-down space player, Todman has enough elusiveness to carve out a smaller role here in 2014 and stick in the league for a little while longer.

 

Chris Polk (Phi, 24) – Polk’s got a shot to win the Eagles’ top backup job behind LeSean McCoy, assuming the Eagles don’t see Darren Sproles in that role should McCoy get hurt. But he’s had chronic shoulder problems, and the Eagles really like another young back on the roster, Matthew Tucker. This is a battle to watch in camp, and Tucker might actually be the favorite.

 

Daryl Richardson (NYJ, 24) – Last year at this time, Richardson was the Rams’ projected lead back. Now, he’s fighting for a roster spot with the Jets. Battling a toe injury and Bilal Powell, Richardson has an uphill climb, but he does have explosive ability.

 

Bobby Rainey (TB, 26) – Rainey flashed in his opportunity with the Bucs last year, but he turns 27 in October and is behind three younger players in Doug Martin, Charles Sims, and Mike James.

 

Travaris Cadet (NO, 25) – The Saints always seem to keep four RBs, which is good news for Cadet, who can contribute on special teams and can catch passes if need be. But he’s unlikely to be a priority signing for the club after the 2014 season unless there’s an injury ahead of him and he not only plays more than expected, but he plays well.

 

Jeff Demps (TB, 24) – An elite sprinter who has made some impact in spring minicamps, Demps has to prove he can make a team and make plays in pads before we can even talk about contracts for him.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

 

Demaryius Thomas (Den, 26) – The Broncos and Thomas have been in contract negotiations this summer, but they’ve been unable to come to an agreement yet. At the very least, the Broncos would almost certainly place the franchise tag on Thomas next off-season, but they’d like to avoid that situation. We expect both sides to continue to work on a deal before the season starts.

 

Dez Bryant (Dal, 25) – The Cowboys certainly want to lock up Bryant for the long term, but owner Jerry Jones didn’t sound too urgent about the issue in the middle of June. Dez is a physical player, so the Cowboys might want to see him play out the final year of his rookie deal. They’ll also have the option of franchising him next off-season, but we still expect contract talks to heat up before the start of the season.

 

Jordy Nelson (GB, 29) – Nelson and the Packers have been in contract negotiations since the start of the off-season, but they’ve yet to come to any kind of an agreement. The Packers locked Nelson up to a team-friendly deal back in 2011, and this could be Nelson’s last chance at a big deal, so he could have some extra motivation to have one last big payday. Nelson does believe he could sign a contract extension with the team soon, but it will be interesting this year if he doesn’t because the Packers drafted three WRs in May – one of them being Jeff Janis (only a 7th rounder, though) whom our Greg Cosell compares to Nelson.

 

Randall Cobb (GB, 24) – It looks like Cobb could be the bigger priority for the Packers to re-sign this off-season over Jordy Nelson, simply because of Cobb’s age. Still, the Packers have yet to come to terms with either player, and the Packers could be waiting to see if Cobb can stay healthy for an entire season. That could be a dangerous decision if Cobb has a huge season and raises his value.

 

Michael Crabtree (SF, 26) – Crabtree is looking for big money in his next deal, and the 49ers don’t typically overpay for their talent, so he could be playing to impress his potential suitors next off-season. The 49ers, at this point, also aren’t expected to use the franchise tag on Crabtree next winter and are expected to let Crabtree become an unrestricted free agent in 2015. Crabtree should have some motivation to put up some big numbers in a potential walk year, and he’s all the way back to full health coming off his Achilles injury and has looked very good this off-season.

 

Jeremy Maclin (Phi, 26) – Maclin placed a bet on himself this off-season, taking a one-year deal to stick with the Eagles to prove that he’s healthy and a top-flight WR. Maclin probably could’ve hit the open market this off-season and received some multi-year offers (there’s talk the Eagles even offered more years), but he’s looking to have a huge year with the Eagles this season to get an even bigger offer next off-season. It’s a major gamble by Maclin, but it could pay off big time for him, and through the end of the minicamps and OTAs, his health was not a concern.

 

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Restricted Free Agents

 

Jarrett Boykin (GB, 24) – Boykin produced when he got the chance to play last season, so his value is on the rise as the #3 WR in this offense. However, the Packers used three draft picks on WRs, including Davante Adams, so he needs to produce for the Packers to keep him around next season. Boykin even has the chance to excel in his new role and potentially draw interest from outside clubs.

 

Rod Streater (Oak, 26) – Streater has flashed potential, and his role started to increase in the second half of last year with better QB play. He’ll have to contend for targets with James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Denarius Moore, but Streater could be the most reliable receiver in the group. Streater would have to really struggle this year for the Raiders not to bring him back next season, and we don’t see that because he continues to ascend, albeit it somewhat slowly.

 

Andre Holmes (Oak, 26) - Holmes has the chance to be a #2/3 WR for the Raiders this season, and he has plenty of talent with his size/speed combination. We fully expect the Raiders to keep him around next off-season, especially if Holmes has the breakout season that he is capable of.

 

Jermaine Kearse (Sea, 24) – Kearse will have a chance for a bigger role this season after a strong postseason and with Golden Tate out of the mix. He’ll battle the likes of Sidney Rice, Kevin Norwood, and Paul Richardson for the #3 WR role. The Seahawks like Kearse a lot, so we’d expect them to keep him around next season for depth. But after they used their first 2014 draft pick on Richardson, it’s clear that the rookie is a better prospect long-term, and the fellow rookie Norwood is an underrated player himself.

 

Cole Beasley (Dal, 25) – Beasley will have to fend off Dwayne Harris and Devin Street for the #3 WR role this training camp, but Beasley should enter the preseason as the favorite. If he proves that he can handle a bigger role this season, the Cowboys would extend him an offer next season as an RFA. At that point, he will have settled into a solid little role as their speedy slot guy (which he started to do last year).

 

Chris Owusu (TB, 24) – HC Lovie Smith has been heaping praise on Owusu during off-season workouts, and the Bucs don’t exactly have a ton of WR depth. He’s got the chance to earn the #3 WR position out of training camp, so Owusu has a real chance to earn himself another year in Tampa.

 

Drew Davis (Atl, 25) – Davis played in all 16 games last season, but he hauled in just 12 passes, even with Julio Jones out for the season. However, the Falcons didn’t add at WR this off-season, so Davis will get some playing time as the #4/5 WR with Darius Johnson. He should at least get a little bit of playing time (if healthy) to potentially show he’s worth keeping around. However, Davis (foot) will open training camp on the physically unable to perform list. Davis recently underwent a procedure on his foot that will require him to miss about six weeks starting in early July.

 

Griff Whalen (Ind, 24) – The Colts got pretty thin at WR at the end of 2013, enabling Whalen to get on the field and put up some numbers. He’s hardly a special player though, and the Colts have retooled at the position, so Whalen isn’t a lock to make the 53-man roster out of training camp. However, the one-year suspension that came down on July 4th for wideout LaVon Brazil really helped Whalen’s chances of making the team.

 

Armon Binns (Mia, 24) – Binns is coming off an ACL and MCL injury from last July, and he’s certainly not guaranteed a roster spot as the #5 WR this season, so he’s certainly not guaranteed to return next year as a RFA.

 

Damaris Johnson (Phi, 24) – Johnson barely played last season in HC Chip Kelly’s first season, and Damaris is squarely on the roster bubble heading into training camp. He’ll have to beat out Brad Smith and Arrelious Benn for a roster spot, so we don’t like his chances of sticking around.

 

Deonte Thompson (Bal, 25) – Thompson has collected 13 catches in 13 games in his first two NFL seasons, and he’s nothing more than the #5 WR in this offense, so he needs to prove he’s worth keeping around next season.

 

LaQuan Williams (Bal, 26) – Williams has 4 catches in three years since he joined the Ravens as an undrafted free agent, so his only chance of sticking is as a special teams player. He didn’t play a single snap last season, so we don’t like his chances.

 

Tight Ends

 

Jimmy Graham (NO, 27) – It’s probably a bit disingenuous to put Graham on this list – the Saints put the franchise tag on him and almost certainly want to sign him to a long-term deal, but they now have the leverage of winning an arbitration case against him. In case you were living under a rock, Graham was trying to argue that he’s a wide receiver, which would mean he’d get about $5 million more under the franchise tag than he would as a tight end. But an arbitrator ruled Graham is indeed a tight end, keeping his franchise tag salary around $7 million. He’s obviously worth more than that, and he and the Saints have until July 15 to strike a long-term deal. If not, he’s playing 2014 under the franchise tag and we’ll reevaluate next year… unless another team chooses to sign him to a big offer sheet (which would cost that team two first-round picks, so it’s unlikely).

 

Jordan Cameron (Cle, 25) – Cameron is coming off a monster season and was negotiating an extension with the Browns before firing his agent at the end of April. While he’d be a prime candidate for the franchise tag, we’d have to think he and the team would like to get something done before that, especially since Cameron looks like the team’s top receiver with WR Josh Gordon facing a lengthy suspension. While Cameron excelled in former OC Norv Turner’s offense, he’s dangerous enough to put up big numbers in any offense and should do well under new OC Kyle Shanahan. There’s some concern about his concussion history, but we’d think Cameron has some leverage with Gordon’s ongoing off-field issues getting so serious (after a July 5th arrest) that he might be done as a Brown and might even have a tough time getting back into the league. Cameron interestingly changed his position on his Twitter account to “pro bowl pass catcher” after New Orleans Saints TE Jimmy Graham was ruled a tight end in his arbitration hearing in part because of how he listed his position on social media.

 

Julius Thomas (Den, 25) – With just 1 reception to his name over his first two seasons, Thomas exploded out of nowhere in 2013, his first year as a starter. Thomas is a matchup nightmare and will only improve getting another year to play with Peyton Manning, which is why he and the team have already begun discussing an extension. Thomas should be one of the top targets in this offense and could have even better numbers in 2014, so it makes sense he’s keeping an eye on a similar player in Jimmy Graham, as he goes through arbitration to determine if he’s a WR or TE. Thomas would be a candidate for the franchise tag, but he should be a priority for the Broncos to lock up as soon as possible. Denver will probably have to wait until Graham signs to make a move.

 

Kyle Rudolph (Min, 24) – We’ve been waiting for Rudolph to have a true breakout season, and it could be coming under new OC Norv Turner this year, which is key since Rudolph is entering the final year of his rookie contract. The team has not discussed an extension with Rudolph, who told the St. Paul Pioneer Press he’s not worried about the deal, but he does want to stay in Minnesota. Rudolph is coming off a broken foot that cost him the final eight games of last season, but the injury has completely healed, and he’s primed for a big season in an offense that should be improved under Turner. At 24, Rudolph could command big money if he breaks out in 2014, so the Vikings may want to think about locking him up before that happens.


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