Sunday, July 20, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #19 (2014 TD Vultures)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #19
Published, July 19, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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2014 TD Vultures

Originally Published, 7/18/14

 

Whether you’re in a TD-only league or not, finding the endzone is obviously a key to success in fantasy football, fickle as TDs can be. So while we started putting out this preseason article to appease the TD-only dinosaurs out there (how you guys doing, by the way?), the fact is it’s a worthwhile exercise to examine which players have a little more going for them than most in the scoring department.

 

For the most part, we’re not going to take up our time and your time by writing about the league’s obvious choices in terms of scoring TDs. You already know who those guys are.

 

Note: Any reference to “red zone” in this article refers to plays inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, while any reference to “goal line” refers to plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. These numbers can be found in sortable form in our Red Zone Tool.

 

When a percentage is referenced for QBs and RBs – as in “Andrew Luck was involved on 66% of the Colts’ red-zone plays” – the percentage measures the times the player threw a pass, ran the ball, or was targeted on a team’s red-zone or goal-line plays.

 

For WRs and TEs, a percentage references to the percentage of the team’s red-zone or goal-line targets that particular player saw, unless specified otherwise.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Note: For QBs, we’re focusing on rushing TDs.

 

Cam Newton (Car) – Newton seems to be almost automatic at finishing near the goal line and scoring, since it’s nearly impossible for opposing defenses to stop the 6’5”, 245-pound beast when he gets a head of steam. Newton did have off-season ankle surgery, which is a small worry for his mobility this season, but he said that he would be at full speed for training camp. Newton led all quarterbacks, with 18 red-zone carries last season, and he was involved on 52% of the team’s plays in the red zone. He also scored on all 3 of his goal-line carries, and he finished with a total of 6 rushing TDs. Newton’s rushing TD totals have dipped the last three years (14 in 2011, 8 in 2012, 6 in 2013), and Mike Tolbert, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart are still around to cherry pick some TDs. He’ll also have excellent goal-line targets in Kelvin Benjamin and Jerricho Cotchery, but Newton should still find the endzone with his legs more than any other QB this season.

 

Andrew Luck (Ind) – Luck is such a dynamic passer from the pocket that his athleticism outside of the pocket can be underestimated. He scored 4 rushing TDs last season, lifting his career total to 9 TDs in two seasons. Luck scored 4 TDs without a single goal-line carry, but he did have 10 red-zone rushes. Luck was involved in a league-high 66% of the team’s plays in the red zone, and we expect OC Pep Hamilton to keep the ball in Luck’s hands quite a bit this season. Luck’s rushing production and overall elite qualities give him a lot of upside, and if he continues to run as he has his first two seasons, then a top-3 fantasy finish at QB is well within reach for the durable Luck.

 

Colin Kaepernick (SF) – The 49ers have been hinting that they’ll expand their passing game and throw the ball more this season, but Kaepernick’s dynamic running ability is still his biggest asset for fantasy. He has the type of speed to be a threat to score from anywhere on the field, which gives him some fantasy upside. He scored 4 rushing TDs last season – so he showed some consistency there unlike a Russell Wilson – and he scored on his only goal-line carry. Kaepernick recorded 10 red-zone rushes, but he was involved on only 44% of the team’s plays in the red zone, as Frank Gore was one of the more active NFL RBs in the red zone. The 49ers didn’t call as many designed runs for Kaepernick last season, but he still finished with the 3rd-most rushing attempts (95). Kaepernick’s cast of receivers has improved with a healthy Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson, but Kap will still likely wind up with 3-5 rushing TDs this season.

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Running Backs

 

Obvious TD Vultures: LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, and Marshawn Lynch

 

Potential TD Vultures

 

Montee Ball (Den) – Ball is poised to step into a coveted role as the running back that gets to fall into the endzone double-digit times because he gets to play beside Peyton Manning. Former RB Knowshon Moreno did just fine in the role last season, finding pay dirt 13 times (10 rushing, 3 receiving) playing next to Manning. Ball scored 4 rushing TDs in limited work last season, including 3 TDs on 10 goal-line chances (9 rushes, 1 target). He also had 27 red-zone chances (23 rushes, 4 targets) and was involved in 14% of the team’s red-zone plays. Playing with Manning remains a boon to a running back, and if Peyton stays healthy, Ball should get between 10-15 TD opportunities by accident. He has to clean up his game around the margins, but he outplayed Moreno down the stretch last year (5.9 YPC to 4.4 YPC over the last eight games), and Ball said he’s much more comfortable with Peyton’s audibles and style this year than last.

 

Arian Foster (Hou) – New Texan HC Bill O’Brien has been impressed with Foster heading into training camp, and it looks like O’Brien is prepared to use Foster like a true feature back. Now we need to see if Foster is ready to play a full season after back surgery cut his 2013 season short. He scored just 1 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD in eight games last season, quite the drop off from an average of 12.3 TDs from 2010-12. He finished with 6 goal-line chances (4 rushes, 2 targets) for 2 TDs and 17 red-zone chances (14 rushes, 3 targets), and he was involved in 29% of the team’s red-zone plays. Foster has certainly showed that he’s a TD vulture in the past, and now he just needs to show that he’s healthy enough to do it again. It also wouldn’t hurt Foster if this Texan offense shows some vast improvement after a dreadful 2013 season. The shift in scheme is a mild concern, but we don’t think Foster is ultimately a function of scheme, and if healthy we believe he can thrive in any scheme if fed the ball.

 

DeMarco Murray (Dal) – We don’t know if Murray will make it through a full season – he’s never played more than 14 games in a season – but the Cowboys are ready to lean heavily on Murray. He is heading into training camp as the Cowboys’ top back in every major situation – early-down, short-yardage, third-down, and goal-line. New OC Scott Linehan could also get RB Lance Dunbar involved the way he got Joique Bell touches last season, but Murray is the better option at the goal line than Dunbar. Lion RBs scored 13 rushing TDs in 2013, and back in 2012 a sluggish Mikel Leshoure was able to rush for 9 TDs under Linehan on only 215 carries (most of them were from short range). DeMarco scored 9 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD, including 7 TDs on 16 goal-line carries. Murray finished with a whopping 49 red-zone chances (41 rushes, 8 targets), and he was involved in 43% of the team’s red-zone plays. If he stays healthy, Murray should be a lock for close to 20 touches per game this season, and he could be a TD vulture even if he plays 12-14 games.

 

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2014, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

 

Jeremy Hill (Cin) – Hill opened OTAs as the #2 RB behind Giovani Bernard and ahead of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who could become expendable by the end of training camp. We sure hope BJGE is gone because this backfield could be a bit of a nightmare if BJGE sticks around to vulture goal-line and short-yardage work away from the much more talented Hill. The Law Firm scored 7 rushing TDs on 30 red-zone carries and 13 goal-line rushes last season, and that could end up being the floor for Hill’s potential because he’s a better player. The Bengals clearly have plan for Hill as a 2nd-round pick, and he’s a decisive downhill runner with natural leg power, so he could be a beast down by the goal line. We just need to see what the Bengals have planned for Green-Ellis, but it looks like Hill will be the #2 back in Cincy.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew (Oak) – MJD has always been a big, physical back, but his TD numbers have fallen off the last two seasons because of his foot injury in 2012 and because of a terrible Jaguar offense last season. At least this Raider offense should be a slight upgrade this season, and he should be the better option at the goal-line over Darren McFadden. MJD scored 5 rushing TDs last season, including 4 TDs on 10 goal-line chances (9 rushes, 1 target). He finished with 34 red-zone chances (28 rushes, 6 targets) and was involved in 30% of the team’s red-zone plays. MJD will likely start the season with a slight edge on Run DMC, Latavius Murray, and Kory Sheets, but we need to see how the backfield is going to play out a bit more in the preseason. It’s fair to say that MJD is the better option for goal-line work, but he might not exactly get a ton of chances in this Raider offense.

 

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Wide Receivers

 

Obvious TD Vultures: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, and Jordy Nelson

 

Potential TD Vultures

 

Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery (Chi) – Chicago’s offense is certainly fantasy-friendly, so we’ll continue to be high on both Marshall and Jeffery. Last season, Marshall was tied for 8th, with 22 RZ targets and also had 9 GL looks, which helped him score 9 RZ TDs, second only to Dez Bryant. Marshall was involved in 14% of the team’s red-zone plays. He’s got a tremendous rapport with QB Jay Cutler and has the size and skill to be a dominant performer in the red zone once again. He’s scored 23 TDs over his first two seasons with the team. Jeffery may have clicked more with QB Josh McCown, but we still think he’ll flourish with Cutler. He was tied for 14th with 19 RZ targets and added 3 GL targets last season with 3 of his 7 TDs coming in the red zone. Jeffery was involved in 12% of the team’s red-zone plays. Jeffery may be more of a downfield option than Marshall, but certainly has the size to be a primary option for Cutler inside the 20.

Vincent Jackson (TB) – Jackson has never scored double-digit TDs in his career, but since coming over from the Chargers in 2012, he’s been the Buccaneers’ most reliable receiver and has racked up 15 TDs during that time, including 7 last year. Typically known as a deep threat, Jackson scored just two TDs of 30+ yards, while racking up 4 TDs in the red zone. He saw 19 red-zone targets (t-14th) and 4 goal-line looks last season. However, he was involved in 21% of the team’s red-zone plays, which was tops among WRs who played at least 10 games. The team has added more weapons, including some huge targets like WR Mike Evans and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, so we could see Jackson’s role in the RZ decrease somewhat, but he should remain the most reliable option in the offense and can definitely make some plays down the field. The addition of Evans is nice for this offense, but we’d expect the veteran McCown to lean on the veteran Jackson.

Larry Fitzgerald (Ari) – While Fitzgerald may not be the dominant receiver he once was, he’s still very reliable and will remain a very active part of the Cardinal passing attack. Last year, Fitz was still among the most active receivers inside the 20, with 24 red-zone targets (t-3rd) and 5 goal-line looks. Fitz was one of just 10 WRs to hit double-digit TDs. He scored 6 red-zone TDs alone in 2013 after scoring just 4 TDs total in 2012. With involvement in 20% of the team’s red-zone plays, Fitzgerald was second only to Vincent Jackson among WRs playing at least 10 games. Third-year WR Michael Floyd came on strong last season, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see him outproduce Fitz in 2014, but we still expect another strong season out of Fitzgerald, especially with an important role in the red zone. They just don’t go to the TEs much in this offense right now, and they also won’t go with a lot of 3-WR sets, so Fitz should easily get 10+ TDs again if healthy.

 

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2014, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

 

Kelvin Benjamin (Car) – Benjamin has some definite boom-or-bust qualities coming into the league, but at least he should be given plenty of opportunities to prove himself in this weak group of Panther WRs, especially considering their major additions include Jason Avant, Jerricho Cotchery, and Tiquan Underwood. It shouldn’t take long for Benjamin to get the attention of QB Cam Newton, especially in the red zone, as he hasn’t had a truly huge WR target thus far in his career. We’ll need to see how the WR battles go in the preseason before we can truly get behind Benjamin, but as the team’s 1st-round pick filling a need, he should get a chance to contribute rather quickly.

 

Jarrett Boykin (GB) – Boykin wasn’t even on the fantasy radar when last season started, but injuries to WRs Randall Cobb and James Jones pushed him into a bigger role, and all things considered, he did a pretty good job. Boykin scored 2 TDs in the red zone on 15 red-zone targets (t-24th) and 4 goal-line looks. He ended up being involved in 16% of the red-zone plays, which isn’t bad considering he initial spot on the depth chart. He moves up to #3 heading into the 2014 season, and if he can hang onto that job, QB Aaron Rodgers might have a reliable RZ target with some size at 6-2, 218 pounds. Keep in mind there situation at TE is very tenuous, so the sizable Boykin, with two full years of experience in this offense and with Rodgers, could be a TD sleeper.

 

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Tight Ends

 

Obvious TD Vultures: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Rob Gronkowski

 

Potential TD Vultures

 

Jordan Cameron (Cle) – Cameron’s coming off a break-out season in 2013, but he will likely be even more important to the Browns this season, thanks to the impending (and likely season-long) suspension of WR Josh Gordon. Cameron was 4th in RZ targets (19) and tied for 6th with 5 GL targets. He was involved in 29% of the team’s total RZ plays. All 7 of Cameron’s TDs came in the red zone. Whether it’s Johnny Manziel or Brian Hoyer under center, Cameron will almost definitely become that QB’s favorite receiver. If Cameron stays healthy, we expect another big season out of him and a strong TD total will likely be part of that.

 

Vernon Davis (SF) – Davis is coming off his second-best fantasy season, as he tied career-highs in TDs and YPC. Even with two games missed, Davis was 3rd among TEs in RZ targets (21) and tied for 2nd with 6 GL targets. He led all TEs with a 39% involvement in the 49ers’ RZ plays. Davis had 9 TDs in the RZ and had 4 go for at least 30 yards. It was only the second time he scored double-digit TDs and only the second time he score more than 7 TDs. A healthy Michael Crabtree and a new addition like Stevie Johnson may cut into his RZ looks, but with his size and improved rapport with QB Colin Kaepernick, Davis can still produce strong TD numbers in 2014.

 

Kyle Rudolph (Min) – A foot injury cost Rudolph the last eight games of 2013, but we’re expecting a big comeback season in 2014 now that he’ll be playing under new OC Norv Turner. Turner was a big reason for Brown TE Jordan Cameron’s breakout season last year and has always featured TEs in his offensive schemes. In eight games last year, Rudolph had just 5 RZ targets and 2 GL targets with none of his 3 TDs coming in the RZ after scoring 8 of 9 there in 2012. When you’re called “Rudolph the Red Zone Reindeer,” TDs are expected to follow and we think they will under Turner, especially with Rudolph elite size and movement. His game should only expand and improve this year and he’s already one of the 5-6 best endzone threats at the TE position in the league.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2014, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

 

Ladarius Green (SD) – Green flashed in 2013, but he showed enough to consider him a candidate for a breakout season in 2014. Green has great size and speed and his athleticism gives give plenty of upside. While he had just 3 TDs and 4 targets in the red zone last season, we’re hoping he polishes his game up a little more this year and can be more than just a threat down the seam. We’ve been told that Green this year has shown improvement in terms of making tough, contested catches. TE Antonio Gates will almost definitely remain atop the depth chart when the season gets underway, but we’re certainly keeping a close eye on what Green does in the preseason to see how much his role expands.

 

Tyler Eifert (Cin) – Rookie TEs usually have trouble making an impact, and Eifert was no exception last year. He had just 7 red-zone targets and 2 goal-line targets and just 1 of his 2 TDs came in the RZ. It might be a bit of a stretch to expect big things, but Eifert has high-end ability and should be a lot more comfortable in year two. They need to do a better job of utilizing his downfield and red-zone ability, but we did see some flashes of potential in both areas in 2013. Hopefully, he makes the leap over TE Jermaine Gresham and finds himself atop the depth chart to start the year. Gresham is solid, but Eifert is more athletic and would be a better candidate to collect a couple of TDs on fade routes and jump balls in the endzone alone.

 

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