Monday, July 7, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #15 (2014's Breakout Receivers)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #15
Published, July 7, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
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IN THIS ISSUE: 

RECENT ARTICLES ONLINE NOW: 

UP NEXT:

  • Off-Season Report #16: 2014's Contract Year Players (This week)
  • Off-Season Report #17: 2014's PPR Gold 

SUBSCRIBER NEWS:

2014's Breakout Receivers

Published, 7/7/14

 

We say it every year in this article, but respected people around the NFL, including our friend and SiriusXM colleague Gil Brandt, insist that that wide receiver is the hardest position to pick up and play immediately in the entire league, outside of quarterback. Given that Keenan Allen was the only rookie wide receiver to finish in the top 40 in total PPR fantasy points last season, the theory is not that hard to prove statistically.

 

Additionally, the new focus on exploiting mismatches at the TE position has made the once thankless job of a blocker who makes the occasional catch one of the flashiest playmakers in the entire league. But it took even phenomenal talents Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham one year each to truly make historic impacts.


So this article, which we’ve been publishing for 15+ years now, details those WRs and TEs who are entering their second and third seasons who could possibly take the next “leap” toward superstardom. Obviously, we’ll start up top with the usual suspects. But because players like Victor Cruz and Danny Amendola have come out of nowhere in the past, we felt it important to dig deep and examine the situations for a great number of talented youngsters, even if their current predicaments seem impossible to overcome.

 

Third-Year WRs

 

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

 

Alshon Jeffery (Chi, 45h pick) – Brandon Marshall might be the #1 WR in Chicago, but Jeffery showed last year that he’s one of the most talented young receivers in the NFL. Alshon finally put together his immense talent in a break-out 2013, after he demonstrated elite skills throughout his college career. He has the chance to get even better in the future, especially if QB Jay Cutler starts to distribute the ball evenly between Marshall and Jeffery. Alshon played his best with Josh McCown last season, but he’s gone to Tampa this season. Still, it shouldn’t matter who is at quarterback because Jeffery has more than enough talent to be one of the game’s best WRs.

 

Michael Floyd (Ari, 13th pick) – We can absolutely see more than a few scenarios in which Floyd leads the Cardinals in receiving this season…well, because he already led the Cardinals in receiving last season. Floyd is close or may have already passed teammate Larry Fitzgerald as the team’s top receiver, but the third-year WR isn’t being valued like Fitz in fantasy drafts. Floyd has been the most impressive player in off-season workouts, and HC Bruce Arians told us at the NFL Combine that Floyd could take another leap toward stardom this season. Floyd is a player who we will be coveting in fantasy drafts this summer.

T.Y. Hilton (Ind, 92nd pick) – The Colts leaned heavily on Hilton last season after veteran WR Reggie Wayne went down for the season with his ACL injury. Hilton didn’t disappoint at the end of the season, carrying this passing game with QB Andrew Luck, and T.Y. remains one of the most electrifying receivers in the league. However, Wayne will be back this season and Hakeem Nicks is now in the mix, so Hilton might not have as many chances as he did in the second half of last season. Still, Hilton is one of those rare players who can change a game in the flash of a second, and we expect him to make a big impact in this Colt offense that could be even more explosive in 2014. He talked in the spring about how the game has really slowed down for him now in his third season, which is a scary thought for defenses trying to stop him.

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Kendall Wright (Ten, 20th pick) – Wright became a solid #2 fantasy WR for PPR formats, catching 94 passes in his second season. There was a time when it was thought that Wright would be a deep threat coming out of college, but he’s become a stud in the underneath and intermediate areas. The major concern heading into this season is that the Titans will be so focused on running the ball that Wright won’t come close matching his 94 catches from a year ago. That means that Kendall will have to start finding the end zone much more often than his 2 TDs from 2013. Hopefully new HC Ken Whisenhunt can get the most out of Wright and use him as he (and HC Mike McCoy) did Keenan Allen last season in San Diego, but there’s still a question about the QB position.

 

Marvin Jones (Cin, 166th pick) – Jones made a name for himself with his legendary 4-TD game in Week Eight against the Jets, but the Bengals severely underutilized him for most of the season. He played on 47% of their snaps last season, but OC Jay Gruden is gone, and new OC Hue Jackson won’t hold the far less talented Mohamed Sanu in such high regard. Jones played extremely well in the final four weeks of the regular season, and he went off for 8/130 in their playoff loss to the Chargers. Jones is certainly trending upward as the season approaches, and he could form a dynamic duo with stud A.J. Green. It’s year three now, and we can pencil him in as the #2 WR and likely the #2 option in the passing game not counting the RBs.


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Have a chance:

 

Chris Givens (Stl, 96th pick) – Givens performed much better as a rookie than he did in his second season, when it looked like he had real breakout appeal last summer. Givens admitted this off-season that an ankle injury slowed him for much of the 2013 season, which helps explain some of his disappointing season. Helping further explain is the fact that Kellen Clemens started Nine games. The Rams still have a crowded group of receivers, which now includes former Titan Kenny Britt, but Givens is expected to get another crack at major playing time. Givens suddenly has some late-round appeal, and there’s certainly a chance that he breaks out a year late, especially if he can rekindle his deep-ball connection with a healthy Sam Bradford.

 

Nick Toon (NO, 122nd pick) – Toon is at full health and ready to make a run at the #4 WR spot in New Orleans this season, after a strong off-season. The Saints still have plenty of bodies at wide receiver, so it won’t be the easiest task for Toon to be out a veteran like Robert Meachem, but Toon could develop into a solid possession receiver here. Saint WRs can be frustrating for fantasy, with their inconsistent production from week to week, but Toon is likely to be on the fantasy map if he wins the #4 WR job because he’ll likely have at least a big game or two. He’s definitely a player to monitor this training camp to see if he earns significant playing time.

 

Cole Beasley (Dal, UDFA) – Beasley has already carved out more of an NFL career than most expected, but he’s got a chance to really settle into a nice role as the team’s #3 WR this season. He’ll need to beat out WRs Dwayne Harris and Devin Street, but Beasley could be a useful weapon for QB Tony Romo out of the slot this season. We also know that new OC Scott Linehan and HC Jason Garrett love to throw the ball around the field, so Romo could be throwing the ball quite a bit in 2014. Beasley has a chance to be useful for fantasy as a PPR option, but he’s unlikely to be a huge factor.

 

5 MORE INCLUDED IN THIS SECTION ONLINE, SUBSCRIBE TODAY FOR THE FULL ARTICLE!

 

Well, they are still third-year receivers:

 

Josh Gordon (Cle, 2nd-round supplemental pick) – We probably won’t even see Gordon play this season because of his potential 16-game ban for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Even before his DWI incident 4th of July weekend, we’d been told that it was not looking good for Gordon to play this season, which is a major bummer. While the league technically deals with each league policy infraction separately, we still think Gordon’s latest trouble spells doom for him – and again we thought he was doomed no matter what. Gordon was the league’s best receiver when he was on the field last season, leading the league in receiving yards (1646) and wide receiver FPG (22.5). There’s no denying that Gordon is an elite WR when he’s on the field, but his return to the field is in serious question.

 

Justin Blackmon (Jac, 5th pick) – It doesn’t look good for Blackmon to play this season, but the Jags haven’t ruled him out for 2014. Still, the franchise’s 2nd-round selections of Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the 2014 draft spoke loudly enough about the Jags’ intentions for Blackmon in the future. There’s no questioning Blackmon’s talent, and he certainly flashed at times in his 20 career games, but he needs to get his personal life on track before he can make an impact on the field. Blackmon is certainly a player to monitor if he doesn’t get a full 16-game suspension, but he’s not guaranteed to even be in the Jaguars’ plans for 2014.

 

Brian Quick (Stl, 33rd pick) – Quick usually stands out at OTAs and in preseason workouts, but he’s yet to really put it together when he’s gotten on the field. The Rams still have a lot of bodies at receiver, so it’s going to be tough to get regular playing time. Still, Quick might be the most talented outside receiver on the roster, and that includes Kenny Britt, so Quick will get another chance to prove he’s ready to play. For what it’s worth, according to offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, Quick is the team's most improved player this off-season, and he’ll be looking to compete for playing time and make the most of his opportunities. His career is certainly off to a very slow start, and the addition of Britt isn’t a good sign for him, but Quick is still extremely talented, and there is still time for him to finally break out.

 

DeVier Posey (Hou, 68th pick) – Posey should truly be at 100% after his Achilles injury from 2012, and he could see more playing time if Andre Johnson would force his way out, but we’re not counting on that happening. Still, Posey is the third-best receiver in this offense, so he’s got a chance to see a significant amount of playing time, even though new HC Bill O’Brien likes to run a lot of 2-TE formations. We’re not expecting Posey to make any major fantasy contributions, but he is a former 3rd-round pick, so he is a talented player who could finally put it together with extra time coming off his major injury. We know from asking Gary Kubiak about Posey two years ago at the combine, that the former Texan coach was very high on DeVier.

 

Jarius Wright (Min, 118th pick) – Wright has flashed at times during his first two seasons, and he’s posted a solid 48/744/5 in 23 career games so far. WR Jerome Simpson is slotted in to be the #3 WR in this Viking offense, but he’s widely expected to face a suspension for a DUI last November, so a bigger role could be in store for Wright. Wright is a solid slot receiver, but he won’t break into the starting lineup with Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings ahead of him. Wright has the chance to be a viable contributor, especially when Simpson is out, but he’s no better than the #4 passing option in a run-heavy offense.

 

Keshawn Martin (Hou, 121st pick) – Martin got his opportunity as the Texans’ #3 WR last season, but he didn’t exactly capitalize on his chance. Still, the Texans didn’t upgrade at WR this off-season, so he’ll be right in the thick of it competing for snaps with DeVier Posey. New HC Bill O’Brien doesn’t use a ton of 3-WR, so he’s not exactly guaranteed a lot of playing time if he wins the job. The Texans could also give Posey more of a chance to play as he should be healthier after his 2012 Achilles injury, so Martin could be limited to mostly special team duties if he’s lucky. He is someone to watch, though, because the one thing he has going for him is versatility, since he can play the slot and outside.

 

Rishard Matthews (Mia, 227th pick) – Matthews made some solid contributions last season after Brandon Gibson went down for the season, but Rishard is looking a little shaky just to make the roster out of camp. Gibson is getting back to full strength, and the Dolphins added rookie Jarvis Landry, so Matthews will have his work cut out for him to earn playing time out of the slot. We do know that QB Ryan Tannehill liked to check down to his slot receiver last season, so this is a valuable fantasy spot. Now, Matthews just has to go out and win the job in training camp, and we’ll be watching this battle closely this August.

 

Junior Hemingway (KC, 238th pick) – The Chiefs refused to get better at WR this off-season, which gives Hemingway an outside chance of making a fantasy impact this season. He’s still the #3 WR, behind Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery, but it’s not like he can’t step up and make contributions this season. Hemingway actually helped the Chiefs at times in 2013, but he’s not really a special player, so it’s tough to expect much from him. Hemingway could have a game or two in which he produces this season, but he’s unlikely to make much of a fantasy impact.

 

A.J. Jenkins (KC, 30th pick) – Jenkins actually caught a pass in his second season, a major upgrade from his catchless rookie campaign in 2012, when he saw action in just three games. Not surprisingly, Jenkins once again failed to impress, this time during OTAs, so he’s not really pushing for major playing time over starter Donnie Avery heading into training camp. It hasn’t been evident on the field, but Jenkins has plenty of talent, and the Chiefs are extremely thin at WR, so it’s not out of the question that Jenkins could finally make NFL contributions. Jenkins is a guy who will get extra chances to succeed because he’s a former 1st-round pick, but he’s heading down the colossal bust path very quickly, and he needs to right the ship quickly.

 

Griff Whalen (Ind, UDFA) – The Colts signed Whalen off the street, and they even cut him once last season, but he became a piece in the stretch run last year when the Colts got a little thin at WR. Whalen isn’t even close to being the most talented WR on this roster, which will make him a candidate to be cut once again. However, he’s a reliable underneath receiver who has a relationship with QB Andrew Luck and OC Pep Hamilton, which doesn’t hurt. What really helps Whalen is the situation with LaVon Brazill, who is facing a full-season suspension in 2014 and might be done with the team. Counting on Whalen for steady fantasy contributions will be a longshot, since the Colts have so many better weapons in their arsenal, but Whalen has a good chance now to make the team due to the Brazill situation.

 

Joe Morgan (NO, UDFA) – Morgan missed last season with an ACL injury, but he’s hopeful to be ready to compete for the #4 WR job during training camp. Morgan will be competing with Nick Toon and Robert Meachem for the bulk of playing time. Morgan needs to prove that his vertical speed hasn’t diminished because of his knee injury, as he could carve out a role as a situational deep threat once again. He averaged a whopping 37.9 YPC as rookie on 10/379/3 in 14 games, so he’s proven that he can lift the top off opposing defenses. Morgan could earn a role in this potent Saint offense, so he could go off in a couple of games this season but is unlikely to be a reliable fantasy option.

 

Chris Owusu (TB, UDFA) – It looked like Owusu might actually be the #2 WR for the Bucs until they drafted Mike Evans with the #7 overall pick. Still, the undrafted receiver with just 14 career catches in 14 games could end up being the #3 WR in this offense. He’ll be competing for snaps with Louis Murphy and rookie Robert Herron, so Owusu certainly has a good chance to earn plenty of playing time. Owusu made an impression on new HC Lovie Smith during OTAs, and even though the Bucs are likely to rely heavily on their running game, it’s not out of the question that Owusu could have a few fantasy moments.

 

Deonte Thompson (Bal, UDFA) – Thompson has seen some limited playing time in his first two seasons when the Raven WRs have dealt with some injuries in front of him. Still, he has just 15 career catches in 13 games, so he’s never really produced when he’s gotten the chance to play. It looks like Thompson could be the team’s #5 WR, which means it will take some injuries in front of him to get him significant playing time.

 

Juron Criner (Oak, 168th pick) – Criner has been a workout wonder in OTAs and training camp during his first 2+ seasons in the NFL, but he hasn’t really produced outside of a few games during his rookie year. He appeared in just one game, hauling in 3 passes, before a shoulder injury ended his season in November. Criner has fallen further down the depth chart as his career has progressed, as he will battle with another disappointment, Greg Little, for the team’s #5 WR spot. Still, it’s not like any WR after James Jones has an overwhelming track record at the NFL level, so Criner has an outside chance of carving out a role.

 

T.J. Graham (Buf, 69th pick) – The former 3rd-round pick has certainly been a disappointment, as the Bills continued to add depth at the WR spot this off-season. Graham has played in 31 games and hauled in 54 passes, but he could be in a battle for a roster spot and the #5 WR role with Marcus Easley and Chris Hogan, who are contributors on special teams. Graham might need to really flash in training camp or hope that Mike Williams’ hamstring is still bothering him just to make this roster, so we’re not expecting much out of Graham this season.

 

Derek Moye (Pit, UDFA) – Moye made the roster last season and appeared in seven games, mostly as a red-zone threat when the Steelers got near the goal line (1 of his 2 catches went for a TD). However, Moye’s height (6’5”) is no longer a foreign commodity for the Steelers, as they drafted a more talented big man in Martavis Bryant (6’4”). Moye will be challenged to make this roster as a red-zone threat, and he’d essentially need Bryant to really fall flat in his first training camp.

 

Marvin McNutt (Car, 194th pick) – McNutt has bounced from the Eagles to the Dolphins and now to the Panthers as he enters his third season, and he has yet to make a catch in five career games. He’s a bit of a long shot to even make the Carolina roster, despite a lack of depth at the position. McNutt is still an intriguing prospect because of his height (6’3”) and his speed, but he has yet to put it all together and become a regular contributor.

 

Tommy Streeter (TB, 198th pick) – Streeter has yet to appear in an NFL game in two seasons, but he possesses rare size (6’5”) and speed, so he continues to hang on the fringes of the NFL. The Buccaneers added him, hoping that they can be the ones to get the most out of Streeter. The Bucs certainly aren’t teeming with depth at WR, but he’s got a long way to go just to make this roster. We’ve been intrigued by his size/speed combo in the past, but we need to see something from Streeter with pads on before we take him serious for fantasy.

 

Toney Clemons (Car, 231st pick) – Clemons didn’t appear in a game last season, as he jumped from Jacksonville to San Diego and finally to Carolina last season. He’s still in the mix with the Panthers, but he remains a long shot to make this 53-man roster. However, the Panthers aren’t exactly loaded at wide receiver though, so it’s not out of the question that he could make a run for playing time.

 

Devon Wylie (SF, 107th pick) – Wylie naturally got the Wes Welker comparisons as a 5’9” slot WR out of college, but he’s barely been able to get on the field in his first two seasons. He appeared in just two games with the Titans last season and didn’t register a catch, and he’ll be on his third team in three years this August. The 49ers are suddenly loaded with potential slot receivers in Stevie Johnson and Bruce Ellington, so Wylie will have to go elsewhere to contribute.

 

Danny Coale (Pit, 152nd pick) – Coale is a former 5th-round pick, but foot and ACl injuries have derailed his career. If he can get his legs back, Coale is a solidly built (6’0”, 187 pounds) prospect who can excel out of the slot. Still, the odds are stacked against Coale making the 53-man roster out of training camp, unless WR Lance Moore suddenly has nothing left in the tank.

 

LaVon Brazill (Ind, 206th pick) – The Colts have added some major depth at wide receiver with the likes of Hakeem Nicks, rookie Donte Moncrief, and a healthy Reggie Wayne, so Brazill had his work cut out for him to make the 53-man roster. He didn’t help himself to start 2013 by beginning the year suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and then he really hurt himself by reportedly testing positive again in 2014. He’s expected to miss the entire 2014 season, and his future in the NFL is in peril.

 

Third-Year TEs

 

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

 

None of note.

 

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Ladarius Green (SD, 110th pick) – Green is certainly on the fantasy radar this summer, even though he caught just 17 passes for 367 yards and 3 TDs last season. Everyone is in love with Green because of his high-end athletic ability for the TE position, and he flashed his talent a few times last season. Starting TE Antonio Gates is still in the mix and won’t be phased out of the offense, but we expect the Chargers to work Green into the mix more often this season as they go with more 2-TE sets. And, if Gates does start to slow down this year, a much bigger role than anticipated could be in store for Green. The Chargers really have just one outstanding receiver in Keenan Allen, so QB Philip Rivers is looking for more weapons, and Green certainly has the upside and tools to fill a void. Although Gates is something of a road block for Green, he really fits the profile of this article well and his experience has clearly helped him ascend.

Coby Fleener (Ind, 34th pick) – We waited and waited for Fleener to truly to step up last season, with TE Dwayne Allen and WR Reggie Wayne done for the year, but Coby never really stepped into the #2 receiver role on a consistent basis for QB Andrew Luck. Fleener is athletic and has some upside heading into the 2014 season, but he might not even be the best all-around TE on his team, which is certainly a problem. Fleener could become an effective receiver in this offense if he ever consistently caught passes over the middle of the field, as his drops have driven his QB and coaches crazy the first two years. Fleener needs to become a more consistent blocker and receiver before he can truly break out this season.

Dwayne Allen (Ind, 64th pick) – Allen is never going to wow fantasy football players because he’s not dripping with athletic ability or upside potential. However, he could develop into a very solid player, with natural hands, and he’s already a strong run blocker, so Allen could have a career like a Heath Miller. Allen missed all of last season with a hip injury that required surgery, so we have to be a little worried about his durability, but he could be the best all-around TE on the roster. TE Coby Fleener was selected ahead of him in 2012, but he’s been underwhelming early in his career. Still, the two players could cut into each other’s playing time, which is a disappointment for fantasy. If Allen can muscle away the starting job from Fleener, Dwayne has the chance to be a high-end #2 fantasy TE because of QB Andrew Luck.

 

Have a chance:

 

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Well, they are third-year receivers:

 

Michael Egnew (Mia, 78th pick) – Egnew’s career so far has been defined so far by his appearance on Hard Knocks, in which former OC Mike Sherman ripped him to pieces repeatedly as a rookie. Well, Sherman is finally gone, so maybe Egnew has a chance to get on the field, but the Dolphins do have depth at TE. New OC Bill Lazor did use Egnew off the line of scrimmage and in the slot at different points in OTAs, and we believe that Egnew’s only chance to make it is if he’s used as a move TE. Egnew will be competing for a roster spot this August, but his chances of making contributions have increased with Sherman out of the picture.

 

James Hanna (Dal, 186th pick) – Hanna has been a disappointment since coming into the league, and his destiny in Dallas was written when the team selected TE Gavin Escobar in the 2nd round last season. He’s slotted in as the Cowboys’ #3 TE this season, so he’d need an injury to see playing time, outside of his special teams work. TE guru Mike Pope is in Dallas now, so he could get his hands on Hanna and get some production out of him, but we’re not counting on it. Hanna is a good athlete and has some potential, but he might need to get out of Dallas before he produces. In fact, Hanna's roster spot could be in jeopardy if the team decides to keep a fullback over a fourth tight end on the 53-man roster.

 

Sean McGrath (KC, UDFA) – McGrath had a few fantasy relevant moments from Weeks Two through Five last season, but he’ll at best settle into the #3 TE spot this season, a spot at which he’s more useful. McGrath proved his value to a 53-man roster last season, but he’ll still be competing for roster spot in training camp, as Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano are ahead of him. McGrath likely will be on the roster bubble if Fasano and Kelce (knee) are healthy during training camp, and he could lose out to young TE Demetrius Harris, who is much more talented.

 

Cory Harkey (Stl, UDFA) – Harkey vultured 2 TDs from Jared Cook last season, so he’s not exactly our favorite #3 TE in the league. Harkey saw some playing time last season because of his ability as a run blocker, so he’s not getting on the field because of his athletic ability and his talent as a receiver. He’s unlikely to ever be more than a TE vulture going forward, and hopefully those TD opportunities go to a fantasy relevant Ram skill player.

 

David Paulson (Pit, 240th pick) – Paulson saw an increased role at the beginning of last season, as TEs Heath Miller (knee surgery) and Matt Spaeth (Lisfranc) recovered from injuries in 2013. Both Steeler TEs are healthy for the start of training camp, so Paulson will once again find himself as the #3 TE. The Steelers also drafted Rob Blanchflower in the 7th round in May, so Paulson could be competing for his roster spot.

 

Garrett Celek (SF, UDFA) – Celek continues to hang around as a former undrafted free agent, but he’s caught just 6 passes in 25 career games, so he’s unlikely to ever be a major fantasy contributor as the 49ers’ #3 TE. The 49ers drafted Vance McDonald in the 2nd round last season, so they clearly view McDonald as the second fiddle to Vernon Davis. Celek isn’t anything more than a run blocker for the 49ers, so it’s tough to see any path to fantasy relevance.

 

Second-Year WRs

 

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

 

Keenan Allen (SD, 76th pick) – The question you might have for Allen surrounds just how much better he can actually get. In other words, was his 71-catch rookie season “topping out” for him? But although he isn’t an explosive physical freak, he has an innate understanding of route running, and he ended up on the same page as Philip Rivers more often than not. Allen has spent most of his off-season working on his endurance and quickness, and even some small improvement in those areas could make him one of the most deadly PPR receivers in the NFL. His deep stats were great as a rookie, and we loved how competitive he was off the line and throughout his routes.

 

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Cordarrelle Patterson (Min, 29th pick) – Patterson was a raw talent coming out of Tennessee last year, but the emphasis should be on “talent.” He slowly improved throughout his rookie season, and new teammate CB Captain Munnerlyn says he’s seen the improvement first hand in minicamps – Munnerlyn recently told the St. Paul Pioneer-Press that he’s “glad” the Panthers, Munnerlyn’s former team, played Patterson early last year, before he got his feet under him. The Vikings’ new offensive coaching staff under coordinator Norv Turner has been drawing up packages specifically for their dynamic young receiver, and it’s led to a pretty high ADP for Patterson early in summer. But if Patterson’s improvements from last year carry over into 2014 – and if his route-running has noticeably improved this off-season as reported – fantasy players could be getting a special asset.

 

Tavon Austin (Stl, 8th pick) – We loved Austin’s explosive ability coming out of West Virginia, and it’s evident the Rams did as well, since they traded into the top 10 for him last April. Unfortunately, Austin’s skills and fantasy production did not converge. First of all, he was a rookie learning Brian Schottenheimer’s complicated offense. Second of all, we think “Schotty” is often too smart for his own good, and never put Austin in a position to succeed, at least consistently. Rumblings are that Austin has taken a mental leap heading into Year Two, and if so, he’s got a shot to be a “post-hype” producer for fantasy. Additionally, the Rams have been working in more creative packages for him. But ultimately, Schottenheimer has to give him a legitimate shot, and on that front we remain skeptical.

Terrance Williams (Dal, 74th pick) – Williams had an up-and-down rookie season, but that’s to be expected from a third-round pick thrown into the fire almost immediately. And the fact that he ended the season not playing particularly well over the last two months may actually help fantasy players grab him for a more affordable pick than you might expect from a young, starting WR in a pass-happy offense. Dallas coaches have reportedly been pleased with Williams this off-season, and playing opposite Dez Bryant should help him see a lot of single coverage. Under new “passing game coordinator” Scott Linehan, Williams should get every chance to break out. He can be a vertical threat, and Linehan likes to push the ball down the field.

Kenny Stills (NO, 144th pick) – Still’s hype train may have derailed after New Orleans’ first-round selection of the explosive Brandin Cooks in May, but there still will be plenty of opportunities to be had here. The Saints lost a ton of catches in Darren Sproles and Lance Moore, and physically, Stills seems to slide into that Moore role rather well. He likely won’t average 20.0 yards per catch again, but Stills can offset the loss in downfield chances with more targets in the short to intermediate area. Stills has been playing all three receiver positions and running all of the routes this year, and in year two he’s carrying himself with plenty of swagger. He may not have the massive breakout potential he had before the Cooks pick, but catching passes from Drew Brees will make him an appealing bench stash in fantasy leagues.

 

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Have a chance:

 

Marlon Brown (Bal, UDFA) – It’s reasonable to expect Brown’s snaps to fall in 2014, playing behind Torrey Smith and Steve Smith at WR, and playing in Gary Kubiak’s 2-TE-heavy offense with Dennis Pitta and Owen Daniels. We like Brown’s talent, and he was a really nice red-zone threat for Joe Flacco last season (7 TDs on only 49 catches), but he probably will need an injury or a massive camp to have significant fantasy value in 2014. He may be a guy who will be more appealing on next year’s “Breakout Receivers” list just because he may have more opportunity with Steve Smith and Daniels a year older.

 

Marquess Wilson (Chi, 236th pick) – Wilson was a raw but seriously gifted player when the Bears made him a seventh-round pick last April. Biding his time until 2014, Wilson made only 2 catches as a rookie, but he should have the opportunity to plug right into the lineup in his second year as the Bears’ #3 WR. In fact, most Bear beat writers would consider it a major upset if Wilson isn’t the #3 behind Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to open the season. It’s not incredibly easy to get behind Wilson as a late-round roster stash because this offense is all about its star players, but there’s clear potential in Marc Trestman’s explosive offense, especially if one of the twin tower wideouts gets hurt.

 

Kenbrell Thompkins (NE, UDFA) – Thompkins has been running with the Patriots’ starters in spring minicamps, mostly because Aaron Dobson has been sitting out after foot surgery. A talented UDFA last year, Thompkins see-sawed between flashy plays and miscues, both physical and mental. With one more year under his belt, however, he’s got a shot to make some progress and perhaps earn a bigger role and more targets from Tom Brady. As of now, give the edge to Thompkins over Josh Boyce for a roster spot, and perhaps for a starting job if Dobson doesn’t recover in time to make an impact in camp.

 

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Well, they are second-year receivers:

 

Josh Boyce (NE, 102nd pick) – It’s always hard to get a read on the Patriots, especially at their messy WR position, but it’s also hard to feel positive about Boyce right now. Not only is he absolutely behind Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Aaron Dobson, but he’s also probably behind Danny Amendola and Kenbrell Thompkins, too. And the Patriots love Matthew Slater on special teams. Even if New England keeps six receivers, Boyce is going to have to fight like hell to make this team.

 

Quinton Patton (SF, 128th pick) – Patton broke his foot early in the 2013 season and never really got going as a rookie, catching only 3 passes all season (including 2 in Week Seventeen). Patton also tweaked the foot in June minicamps, so he’s got to prove himself healthy and able in training camp. The Niners have rebuilt their WR position in the off-season, adding Stevie Johnson and rookie Bruce Ellington to Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin, and they also brought in vet Brandon Lloyd for a look. Patton, Lloyd, and Jonathan Baldwin may be battling for one roster spot. The early indications are that Patten is going to make it, but that could change if Lloyd blows up in camp and shows them he can challenge defenses vertically. That’s something Patten cannot do.

 

Tavarres King (Car, 161st pick) – King has bounced around a little in just two seasons the NFL. He was a fifth-round pick of the Broncos last year, was promoted to the active roster midseason because the Packers had expressed interest in him, and was finally claimed by the Panthers a few weeks later. An inconsistent player at the University of Georgia, King has good deep speed and decent size. And is there a better spot to try to succeed as a wide receiver than in Carolina, where he’s behind the likes of Jason Avant, Jerricho Cotchery, and rookie Kelvin Benjamin? If he gets some snaps, he could make some noise.

 

Darius Johnson (Atl, UDFA) – Johnson flashed at times while catching 22 passes for the receiver-needy Falcons last year, and there’s no way Atlanta wants the young slot receiver to play that much again (Roddy White and Julio Jones were injured). He’s probably going to make this roster because Atlanta still lacks depth behind Roddy, Julio, and Harry Douglas, but his chances at making an impact are likely minimal.

 

Corey Fuller (Det, 171st pick) – Fuller was a raw, developmental prospect when the Lions drafted him last year, and he didn’t accrue any playing time as a rookie. Under Jim Caldwell and a new regime, Fuller has to stand out to make the club – he at least had a strong spring, according to Caldwell. However, he’s likely to battle Kris Durham, Ryan Broyles, Jeremy Ross, and T.J. Jones for a couple of roster spots.

 

Chris Harper (GB, 123rd pick) – A fourth-round pick who didn’t crack Seattle’s roster last year, Harper has another uphill climb in WR-rich Green Bay. If the Packers keep six WRs, he may have a chance to beat out rookie Jeff Janis, but Harper’s best shot could be with another team (Janis is also intriguing, and this staff drafted him, unlike Harper). We did find his talent appealing coming out of college, but he hasn’t yet stood out enough. One possibility is they put Janis on their practice squad and keep Harper around because he’s at least a veteran and they are thin in terms of vet receivers.

 

Brice Butler (Oak, 209th pick) – Butler caught 9 passes as a rookie last season, showing enough to at least be intriguing with his 6’3” frame. He did flash serious potential in the preseason last year, but it didn’t transfer to when the bullets were flying for real, and there were times when they needed help due to injuries. Unfortunately, he may be a victim of the numbers game, even in Oakland. He’s probably going to have to battle Juron Criner and Greg Little for a roster spot.

 

Conner Vernon (Cle, UDFA) – A record-setting possession receiver at Duke, “opportunity” is the key word for Vernon. With Josh Gordon likely missing a large chunk of the year to suspension, the Browns will likely have a number of receivers on their roster whom you’ve never heard of before. Vernon’s got a chance to be one of those guys.

 

Kevin Dorsey (GB, 224th pick) – A combine superstar last winter, Dorsey spent his entire rookie year as an IR stash (toe and knee injuries). Unfortunately for him, he’ll need to blow up in camp to make this receiver-rich Packer roster.

 

Justin Brown (Pit, 186th pick) – The Steelers are scraping for a starting receiver opposite Antonio Brown, and they’ve even let the former Penn State and Oklahoma product Justin Brown get some first-team reps this spring. However, he’s going to be low on the priority list in training camp, behind Markus Wheaton, Lance Moore, Martavis Bryant, and Darrius Heyward-Bey. He could be competing with former Penn State teammate Derek Moye for one roster spot.

 

Alan Bonner (Hou, 195th pick) – The undersized Bonner was an IR stash last year, suffering a hamstring injury in August. He’ll have a shot to stand out in camp because the Texans don’t have great receiver depth, but he’s not a particularly unique talent and likely will need to make his presence felt on special teams.

 

Cobi Hamilton (Cin, 197th pick) – Hamilton made an impression on new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson last year as a member of the Bengals’ practice squad. Jackson loves Hamilton’s physical play and his 6’2” frame, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Hamilton make this roster as a #5/#6 type WR if he can contribute on special teams.

 

Chad Bumphis (Jac, UDFA) – Best out of the slot, Bumphis probably has long odds to make the Jags’ final roster, considering their draft investments in the WR position in May.

 

Second-Year TEs

 

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

 

Jordan Reed (Was, 85th pick) – Reed was on pace for one of the best rookie seasons ever for a tight end – over 16 games, his numbers extrapolate to 80/886/5 and 203.2 fantasy points in a PPR league, which would have been 7th-most in the league. A former quarterback who has unreal athletic ability, the only question about Reed is unfortunately a major one: Can we trust him to stay healthy with an extensive concussion history? His talent will mean many take a risk on him, but Reed admitted this off-season to hiding concussions – “I didn’t know if [the symptoms] would ever go away,” Reed said. It’s a startling admission from such a young player, but Reed now insists he’s over the issues. He’s obviously a very quick learner with excellent “football intelligence,” so the sky’s the limit if he’s on the field with a year under his belt.

 

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Zach Ertz (Phi, 35th pick) – Ertz clearly has the ability to be one of the top fantasy tight ends for years, and he impressed enough with his 36/469/4 line as a rookie. Ertz’s late-season surge – including a TD in the Eagles’ playoff game – has many tabbing him for a fantasy explosion in 2014. Here’s where we’re skeptical: It’s not that we don’t believe in  Ertz; it’s just that we wonder how many touches are possible here. Ertz can play connected to the formation, but so can Brent Celek. He can play in the slot, but so can Jordan Matthews, Darren Sproles, and Josh Huff. We’d expect Ertz’s bottom line to improve, perhaps significantly given he can be a matchup nightmare, but it could be more inconsistent and week-to-week for fantasy than many would like.

Tyler Eifert (Cin, 21st pick) – Eifert’s best friend may be new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, who appears to want to use dual-TE sets as his base offense. That’s not surprising, considering Jackson is known as a run-game guru. But for fantasy purposes, we’re wondering if Eifert can overcome Jackson’s run-heavy attack, the up-and-down play of Andy Dalton, and the continued presence of Jermaine Gresham. An immense talent, Eifert may have too much competition for touches – including Mohamed Sanu in the slot – to become a high-end fantasy contributor this year. But at least the talent to be a major difference-maker is there, and he now has a full season’s worth of experience to take advantage of it.

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Have a chance:

 

Tim Wright (TB, UDFA) – Wright’s dynasty prospects took a hit with the Bucs’ drafting of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but it’s entirely possible the two players can coexist. ASJ is more of a “traditional” in-line TE, maybe in the mold of a Martellus Bennett, while Wright was a college WR converted to TE in the NFL (it’s usually the other way around). While the Bucs stand to have an improved offense with Josh McCown calling the signals and WR Mike Evans added through the draft, they still lack depth at WR. It’s entirely possible that Wright, while a tight end in name, becomes the Bucs’ snap leader in the slot. He may not have significant fantasy value from that spot, but we’d expect to see him on the field, and Lovie Smith has said that he has 'big plans' for Wright this year. Also, ASJ may be behind the 8-ball since he didn’t participate in the team’s off-season workouts.

 

Mychal Rivera (Oak, 184th pick) – Undersized but an interesting talent, Rivera is going to have to beat out the oft-injured David Ausberry in training camp if he’s going to have a shot to make a serious impact in his second year. Ausberry may have the advantage because of his blocking right now, but Rivera can be a better receiver, and new QB Matt Schaub does love his tight ends. This is a situation to monitor in training camp for deeper leagues because neither player is likely to be drafted.

 

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Well, they are still second-year receivers:

 

Vance McDonald (SF, 55th pick) – McDonald was a disappointment last year, catching only 8 passes and struggling with drops, despite being a second-round pick and the 49ers lacking weapons on the perimeter. Obviously, he’s still behind Vernon Davis, plus the 49ers added Stevie Johnson and rookie Bruce Ellington at WR in the off-season. Oh yeah, Michael Crabtree is healthy. It’s just really hard to see McDonald getting significant snaps when he was reportedly still struggling with drops in the minicamps, and the 49ers retooled elsewhere.

 

Chris Gragg (Buf, 222nd pick) – A really talented but raw player, Gragg started to get snaps in Buffalo late last season, totaling a line of 5/53/1 on the year. He has competition from vets Scott Chandler and Tony Moeaki in training camp, but both have had major injury problems in the past, and it’s not impossible to see Gragg turning some heads.

 

Joseph Fauria (Det, UDFA) – Fauria is massive at 6’7”, but the fact that the Lions spent a first-round pick on Eric Ebron and re-signed Brandon Pettigrew in the off-season seems to confirm some things we’ve been told about him: He isn’t a good blocker, and he’s a lazy route runner. His size should continue to make him a red-zone asset, but he’s currently buried on the depth chart and needs to show improvement in camp.

 

Dion Sims (Mia, 106th pick) – Sims may have a role with the Dolphins this year, but it’ll likely be as a blocker, if anything. He’s probably ahead of third-year man Michael Egnew, but his likelihood at making a fantasy impact is about nil.

 

Nick Kasa (Oak, 172nd pick) – The Raider tight end job was wide open last training camp, but Kasa couldn’t take advantage of the opportunity, managing just 1 catch in limited playing time in 16 games. Kasa is raw and has shaky hands, but he is big and athletic, which makes him an intriguing prospect. Still, Mychal Rivera emerged at tight end for the Raiders last season, and he has more upside than Kasa as a fantasy prospect, as does vet David Ausberry, so we can’t expect much from Kasa in this offense.

Demetrius Harris (KC, UDFA) – We’re always intrigued by former basketball players making the transition to tight end since it’s worked out nicely for guys like Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham. Harris is one of those players we’re monitoring, and he’s bulked up to 257 pounds after playing at 225 as a rookie. He didn’t appear in a game last season, and he’s obviously still a major project, but the Chiefs don’t have a proven serious receiving threat at TE (although the Chiefs are hoping that Travis Kelce can be that guy). Head coach Andy Reid complimented Harris in May, saying that he “played exceptionally well” in their minicamp while waxing poetic about his size and work ethic. We’re obviously not going to go overboard with a guy like Harris, but we’ve seen former basketball players eventually develop into studs at TE, so we’ll keep our eye on him.


Zach Sudfeld (NYJ, UDFA) – “The Fantasy Superstar That Never Was: The Zach Sudfeld Story.” That’s the name of the forthcoming biography on the undrafted free agent from the University of Nevada, who managed just 5 catches last season after becoming a fantasy darling last off-season. The Jets were reportedly high on Sudfeld before this year’s draft, but they ended up drafting TE Jace Amaro in the 2nd round, sending Sudfeld even further down the depth chart. Sudfeld does have intriguing size (6’7”), speed, and decent hands, so it’s not out of the question that he becomes fantasy relevant at some point, but he needs to become a better blocker to get on the field with regularity.

 

Josh Hill (NO, UDFA) – We fully expect to see plenty of Jimmy Graham this season, but if he holds out or is injured once again, suddenly Ben Watson and Hill would have some fantasy appeal. Hill actually saw a decent amount of playing time in 14 games and significant snaps in the playoffs, so they weren’t afraid to get the undrafted TE on the field. He’s an athletic TE, but he’s undersized for the position (6’5”, 229 pounds), so he could get overwhelmed as a blocker if he ever saw regular playing time. Hill is player to monitor in case things go very sour between the Saints and Graham.


D.C. Jefferson (Car, 219th pick) – The Cardinals waived Jefferson after he was arrested for a DUI last November. He appeared in four games with Cardinals and didn’t make a catch, and he’s unlikely to make the 53-man roster out of Panther training camp. Jefferson is a pure blocker based on his massive stature (6’6”, 255 pounds), so he’s unlikely to ever make any fantasy contribution outside of a few red-zone targets.

Justice Cunningham (Stl, 254th pick) – Cunningham was “Mr. Irrelevant” in the 2012 draft, but the Colts cut him at the end of the year after he caught 1 pass in one appearance. The Rams already have Jared Cook, Lance Kendricks, and Cory Harkey ahead of him on the depth chart, so Cunningham will have a tough time making the 53-man roster and matching his 1 catch from last season.

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