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The Stock Watch

Updated, 7/30/14

This column has been a staple of our preseason coverage for two decades, and it will remain as such. But this year, we’re going to approach the Stock Watch a little differently. We’re still going to produce massive reports early each week that covers all the events of the exhibition season. But this year, we view this column as also a “newsy” piece, once in which we’ll be constantly updating entries throughout the week as things come to the surface.

Basically, if you want to know what’s going on around the league from a fantasy perspective, this is the place to go. Each week’s report will be posted on a Monday and will be updated throughout the week as needed. All updates will be marked and dated. At the beginning of each week, we’ll start fresh with a new file and link to all the archives, as usual.

Here’s what’s going on at this early stage…

Upgrades

Recent news and/or performances have made us more optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning (NYG) – It’s tough to get too excited about Eli for 2014 because we have to remember that he’s coming off two consecutive poor seasons (the Giants’ reported goal of a 70% completion rate for Eli is absurd for a 58.5% career passer). But if we remove the hyperbole and unrealistic expectations from the equation, we still feel the switch to a quicker-hitting West Coast offense under Mike McCarthy disciple Ben McAdoo is a positive development, and Eli has looked good in the early goings of camp. Keep in mind we saw something similar to what they’re trying to attempt in New York with the Chargers last year, and getting the ball out of their QB’s hand did result in a 70% completion percentage, and it did help their OL greatly. There is some concern about rookie WR Odell Beckham, who continues to battle injury and hasn’t been able to get acclimated, but the offense is looking to be a nice fit for Eli and his top weapon, Victor Cruz. (Eli mentioned earlier this off-season that the new scheme “has reenergized” him.) Eli’s off-season ankle surgery doesn’t look like it’s going to bother him at all, and all the news thus far suggests he could be a cheap and valuable fantasy backup in 2014.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller (Mia) – Miller was a disappointment last year, but it also seemed pass-happy offensive coordinator Mike Sherman never really gave him a shot to establish himself. With Sherman gone and Chip Kelly understudy Bill Lazor taking the reins, we’re optimistic about Miller’s chances to come through as a post-hype sleeper in 2014. Miller has been getting starter’s reps with Knowshon Moreno still recovering from a recent knee scope, and the Miami Herald suggests Miller has been impressive in the LeSean McCoy role in Lazor’s offense. There’s a lot to digest there; Miller, by no means, is Shady. He doesn’t have McCoy’s elusiveness and lateral agility (not even close), although he does him impressive downhill burst. However, he is currently uncontested in camp as the Dolphins’ top back, and the new offense in Miami looks like it’s going to allow him to be more assertive. And if there’s one thing we love for a back with Miller’s straight-line speed, it’s an offense that predicates itself on spacing and opening up huge holes. Much like we can’t assume Miller will be McCoy, we can’t assume Lazor is automatically going to call plays like Kelly just because he worked under him. But Miller is looking attractive at his current mid-round ADP.

Carlos Hyde (SF) – While the Kendall Hunter (ACL) and LaMichael James (dislocated elbow) injuries may not have a huge effect on what we expect from Frank Gore this year, it certainly makes us raise our eyebrows with regard to Hyde. We were already pushing Hyde as a late-round stash and as the handcuff we want to own for Gore, but now he appears unabated regarding being Gore’s primary backup. Marcus Lattimore still isn’t practicing, and Hyde was our favorite “volume” back in this year’s rookie class. The 49ers did sign Alfonso Smith on Monday for some depth, but he has just 48 career carries for 156 yards in four seasons, so he’s not a real threat to Hyde or Gore. His dynasty value is sky-high in this offense, but now his redraft value has serious upside attached to it. Remember, not only is Hunter done for the year and James is out for at least a month, but Gore is 31. If Hyde were to get starter’s snaps here, in this offense, he’d be a borderline RB1. Updated: 7/29

Ahmad Bradshaw (Ind) – Our concerns about Bradshaw remain the same, as he’s coming off a serious neck injury, has battled tons of injuries throughout his career, and has only recently been cleared to practice. However, with the unfortunate news of Vick Ballard’s tearing his Achilles (while recovering from a torn ACL), Bradshaw is rather clearly the Colts’ top backup option behind Trent Richardson. And Richardson’s grasp on the starting job is rather tenuous, if he looks anything like the player he was last season. As of now, the only healthy backs in Colts camp with any sort of NFL experience are Richardson, Bradshaw, and Dan Herron (undrafted rookie Zurlon Tipton will get a look, too). The Colts may make a move for a vet, but Bradshaw likely would remain the solid #2 here.

Terrance West (Cle) – News has been all positive for the rookie West, who has turned the most important head in Browns’ camp thus far – that of head coach Mike Pettine. It appears that West is going to have every shot to prove he’s worthy of sharing snaps with Ben Tate early in the 2014 season, if not winning the starting job outright from the vet. According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Pettine thinks West still needs to catch up to Tate in terms of pass protection, but he’s making positive strides everywhere else, especially as a receiver. We don’t expect West to beat out Tate outright, at least early on, but in the event Tate disappoints or gets injured (which he has a history of doing), West has some three-down potential. He’s absolutely worth a mid-round upside flyer.

Devonta Freeman (Atl) – Well, the Steven Jackson looks “rejuvenated” reports from Monday look a little premature, as the 31-year-old RB is now out indefinitely with another hamstring injury. It’s not the same hamstring that cost him four games last season, but HC Mike Smith did give an interesting timeline, saying that Jackson will be ready for Week One. We expect a little more information to come out about his injury, but we can’t say we’re overly optimistic for Jackson’s prospects for a healthy, productive season. Freeman has the tools to become a three-down back, and the Falcons aren’t happy with Jacquizz Rodgers’ production over the last two years, so Freeman has the chance to become the man in Atlanta before the end of the season. Freeman should now get a large chunk of first-team reps for the rest of camp, and Jackson’s bad hamstrings could make Freeman the man even earlier than anticipated this season. Added: 7/30

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones (Atl) – The Falcons are taking it slowly with Julio as he recovers from foot surgery, but it appears they’re just being cautious. According to ESPN.com, Julio looks 100% when taking whatever reps the Falcons afford him at camp, specifically using the word “explosive” to describe Julio’s movements. With Julio back and Roddy White fully healthy, Matt Ryan looks like an excellent bounce-back candidate thus far, and Julio has probably shown enough to be one of the first handful of WRs off the board this summer.

Victor Cruz (NYG) – The new Giants’ offense looks like a big positive for QB Eli Manning, as we’ve already mentioned in this Stock Watch, but for fantasy purposes, Cruz may be the biggest beneficiary. The quick-hitting West Coast concepts of new OC Ben McAdoo are getting Cruz the ball closer to the line of scrimmage. And according to Cruz, that’s allowing him to use his elusiveness and create more big plays, as he told our colleagues atSiriusXM NFL Radio. For our purposes, this could mean “PPR Gold” for Cruz and potentially a chance for him to avenge the second-half disappointments he’s had in each of the last two seasons.

Mike Wallace (Mia) – Much like we can’t assume Lamar Miller is LeSean McCoy and new Dolphin OC Bill Lazor is Chip Kelly, we can’t just projectDeSean Jackson’s numbers onto Wallace. But thus far in training camp, Wallace has been working in the “Z” role that Jackson filled with the Eagles last year, when Lazor was QB coach. That means Wallace has been moving around the line of scrimmage, catching higher-percentage passes, much like Jackson did last year in his 82-catch career year. That’s not to say that Wallace is primed for a serious breakout in his second year with Miami – he’s still not a great or complete route-runner – but finally that there may be a coach here who uses him as something other than a low-percentage deep threat. That will decrease his volatility, and potentially give him some fantasy upside he’s lacked to this point.

Rueben Randle (NYG) – Randle has been starting opposite Victor Cruz in the early going of training camp, with Odell Beckham nursing a hamstring injury. He was a disappointment last year, often miscommunicating with QB Eli Manning, and it landed him in the doghouse. But the 6’2” Randle projects well as an “X” receiver in Ben McAdoo’s West Coast offense, and the hope is he sees a lot of single coverage with Cruz and Beckham mucking up the middle of the field with their speed and YAC ability. According to the New York Daily News, Randle has acknowledged his need to play more to his size, and if he does, he sees himself as a true red-zone TD hog. He’s super affordable as of right now (around a 10^th-round ADP with our latest update), and is now one of our favorite receivers to add to the back end of a roster. It was revealed Monday night that the Giants will hold Beckham out for at least another week because of his hamstring injury, so Randle will have a great chance to lock down the starting “X” spot. Updated: 7/29