Monday, August 26, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Stock Watch (8/26/13)

This e-mail is from FantasyGuru.com's EXPIRED/FREE OFF-SEASON mailing list. To remove yourself from this list, check the bottom of this e-mail.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Our subscribers are killing it this year!
We've never received more positive feedback from our readers in terms of their draft success than we have this year, so you need to get in on this.

Below, you'll find a snippet of the latest Stock Watch report, released today. As we covered in a previous e-mail, we have a lot of new stuff this year, so here's a quick reminder of some of more interesting offerings:

  • New site design
  • Draft Analyzer software
  • Draft Guru iPhone app
  • Upgraded MyGuru iPhone/Droid App
  • Auction Guru (Excel)
  • FANTASYGURU.COM NEWS FEED
  • More articles than ever
  • New Game Center Interface
  • Projections Filtering
  • Larger staff

Here’s what we’ve updated just this past week, and we'll be cranking out a ton of stuff this coming week like Values and Players to Target, Position Battles, More Mock Drafts, Rookie Report, Updated 2013 Draft Plan, and much more.

The Stock Watch (Preseason Week #3)

Published, 8/26/13

Stock Watch Archives:
Preseason Week Two (8/16-8-20)
Preseason Week One (8/3-8/13)
Preseason (7/28-8/8) 

We’ve seen this month why it’s always wise to draft in late-August, since the fantasy landscape is really starting to take focus. We’ve seen some clear risers like Eddie Lacy, some fallers due to injury like Le’Veon Bell, and some stocks holding steady at best and worst.
 
We know the third preseason game is the most critical, so we’ve taken extra time to watch all the tape, break down the numbers, and account for all the injuries. The result is our most important market commentary of the preseason, and we’re all over it.
 
Upgrades
 
Quarterbacks
 
Andrew Luck (Ind) – Even without his two starting TEs, Luck was fantastic in the third preseason game. Luck was able to spread the ball around, hitting eight different receivers, three of which gained over 30 yards receiving. WR Reggie Wayne was brilliant, and you have to like how they are using T.Y. Hilton in the red zone (his TD). Even Darrius Heyward-Bey had some nice grabs in this game. Luck finished the game 16-for-25 for 164 yards, with 2 TDs. He had an INT, but we can’t say it was Luck’s fault, as he put the ball on the receiver’s hand (albeit it a little too quickly) and the pass was deflected. Luck is an incredibly comfortable player, and he’s fun to watch. He showed great awareness in the pocket and scrambled 4 times for a total of 20 yards. He’s the perfect pick because he’s a legitimate stud, yet he can be had 50-70 picks into a draft. If you get him closer to the 70 range, then you might need to turn yourself into the authorities because you’ll be guilty of theft.
 
Colin Kaepernick (SF) – It’s been a quiet preseason for Kaepernick, and we do have some concerns about his receiving corps. But to put Kaepernick the player into perspective, if he had a healthy Michael Crabtree, we might be ranking him #4 at QB right now. He got off to a slow start in the third preseason game against a good Viking defense. But he was then brilliant on a long drive. He completed 7-of-13 passes for 72 yards and a TD. He’s played very little this preseason (12/19 for 107 yards and 1 TD) and has just 1 carry this preseason, but the vibes are pretty good here. We’ve moved him up one spot and still have a lot of confidence in him.
 
Tony Romo (Dal) – Romo’s preseason really couldn’t be going any better. He was on fire Saturday night in the third preseason game, completing 13-of-18 passes for 137 yards and 2 TDs, including TDs to his top two wideouts in Miles Austin (4/59/1) and Dez Bryant (6/54/1).  Romo’s TD to Austin was classic Romo, as he eluded pressure, stepped up in the pocket, and waited for his receiver to find an opening in the back of the end zone. Austin has looked healthy and fresh this month, and Dez has looked dominant. We’re not sure Romo’s OL is going to be anything better than mediocre, and they do still have issues inside. But Romo has great escapability and improv ability, and they should be helped up the gut, thanks to rookie #1 pick Travis Frederick. All signs point to Romo having yet another really nice fantasy season.
 
Matt Schaub (Hou) – We moved Schaub up in our rankings last week, and Schaub was in midseason form in the third preseason game, finishing 15-of-26 for 213 yards and leading the team to 16 points in one half of action, and that was without impressive rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins. They have more depth at receiver this year, and veteran Andre Johnson looked great, plus TE Owen Daniels has been solid (other than his dropped TD last night), so things are looking up for Schaub as a steady backup option.
 
Terrelle Pryor (Oak) – We knew things were bad in Oakland, but it’s not a good sign for Matt Flynn when his head coach says the QB competition is still open after three preseason games. Dennis Allen had every right to say that after Flynn went 3-for-6 for 19 yards with 2 INTs and a sack. Pryor came into the game halfway through the 2nd quarter and was able to get the team on the board with a FG to end the first half. Pryor was able to then find the end zone with his legs on a 25-yard TD run on the team’s first drive of the 2nd half. The Raiders got another FG on their next drive and then saw Pryor hit TE Nick Kasa for a 19-yard TD to close out his night. Pryor ended up 7-for-9 for 93 yards with a TD and ran 4 times for 37 yards and a TD. We wouldn’t go nuts with the erratic Pryor, but if he’s named the starter he has to be on the radar for those in deeper leagues. Pryor got a start last year in Week Seventeen and he actually produced, putting up 26.4 fantasy points, thanks to 2 passing TDs and 49/1 rushing. He will definitely run, so in deeper leagues he’s on the radar. In fact, it’s looking like the Raiders will be rolling with him.
 
Running Backs
 
Arian Foster and Ben Tate (Hou) – The vibes are clearly getting better here. For one, Foster went off PUP last week and now says that he’s fresh and ready to go. It’s also important to note that his handcuff had a stellar showing in the third preseason game, which makes drafting Foster a lot more palatable. Tate really ran hard, and he bruised the Saint defense with a strong rushing performance. He ran for 74 yards and a TD on 11 carries including an impressive 39-yard run. The Saint defense looks like it will be bad again, but Tate looked like the player he was in 2011 when he played a somewhat significant role in the offense. We’re probably not going to move Foster up in our rankings, but we’re going to bump his projection a little. Drafting a RB in the top 7-8 is really a preferential thing as they are all so very close. You do want to feel good about the guy you select, and we do feel better about Foster, thanks to the recent turnaround from the bad vibes and the performance of Tate.
 
Trent Richardson (Cle) – Last week, the entire offense was great for their second preseason game. This week, Richardson was the only bright spot. He managed 31 yards on 7 carries, with a long of 12 in the first half, and he had a reception for ten yards. It’s great to see him play in the preseason and remain unscathed, but he’s also looked fantastic. The vibes really couldn’t be much better for Richardson.
 
Matt Forte (Chi) – Our initial reaction to the Marc Trestman hire back in the spring was extremely positive for Forte. But while he’s still relatively young, he does have some mileage on him and some minor injury concerns, so getting some validation of our high expectations in the preseason would be nice – and Forte has obliged. Forte is looking very strong this summer, and he seems to be moving as well as ever. Granted it was the shabby Raider defense, but he popped off several big plays with ease in the third preseason game. He caught a 32-yard TD pass on a nice swing route early, and he was very busy while he was out there, carrying 6 times for 76 yards and adding 2/33/1 through the air. He’s actually more of the “holding steady” guy because we can’t rank him higher than where we have him (10th overall), but Forte deserves another upgrade after a very positive preseason.
 
David Wilson (NYG) – We loved Wilson to a fault last summer, but we were concerned about his high ADP going into training camp. However, 3-4 weeks later, with the quality at the position around him eroding, and with the vibes so good for Wilson, we’re feeling a lot better about this future star. He’s held on to the ball well, and his talent is blatantly obvious. Veteran Andre Brown has been decent this summer and he will still get most of the 3rd down work. Brown should also be the guy when they are on top of the goal, although Wilson isn’t totally irrelevant when they are in the red zone and inside the 10. Brown’s a factor for sure, but Wilson can do a lot with a little, as he showed in the third preseason game. On the very first play from scrimmage, he took a handoff at the 16 yard-line and didn’t stop until reaching the end zone 84 yards later. Wilson found a hole and let his speed do the rest, a very encouraging sign for the Giants, who are in need of a stud running back to balance QB Eli Manning’s shaky play. Wilson finished the day 5/92/1 rushing and also made 2 receptions. We sense the coaching staff has a lot more trust in him, and at this point sending him to the bench after a fumble would be the kind of move that gets a coach (not exactly Tom Coughlin, but another one) fired. We have absolutely no problem taking Wilson as high as 37 overall, which would be the first pick in the 4th round of a 12-team league. Aggressive players can push him up another 3-5 spots with some confidence.
 
Reggie Bush (Det) – We could pretty much write the same thing we wrote about Bush last week. But the fact is we’re absolutely psyched about the fact that he’s getting his work in the passing game in, which should make him a PPR stud. While he gained only 1 yard on 6 carries, Bush was targeted 7 times in the passing game and added 5 receptions for 103 yards. It was his second straight preseason outing with 5 catches, something he did only five times total in two years with the Dolphins. What’s more: as a Dolphin, Bush never had more than 56 yards receiving, something he did in his first game with Miami and never again. Bush could be joining the Darren Sproles tier as a borderline #1 RB in a PPR, and as such, he’s a pretty interesting value. We hope he cleans up the ineffective running stats, but we feel like he’ll improve in that area enough to make him an appealing fantasy player.
 
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac) – Our guy MJD has looked good in practice and he looked very good in the third preseason game. He played only 13 snaps but got 7 carries and 1 target, and he moved well and showed his usual power. He popped off a couple of nice runs en route to a 28 yard day on the ground and looked quick coming off his Lisfranc surgery. It wasn’t all good, though, as starting LG Will Rackley suffered a severe ankle injury and is expected to miss the entire 2012 season. The new offense, though, does look intriguing. Maurice told us in mid-July that he’s drop some weight for it and that he favors the new zone blocking scheme. And trust us when we tell you this: he knows how huge this season is and that he can get the last big contract of his career and get the heck out of dodge with a big 2013 season.
 
Ray Rice (Bal) – We haven’t bailed at all from Rice due to the emergence of Bernard Pierce, and through three preseason games we’re glad we’re still sticking with this reliable fantasy option. Rice in the third game of the month had his best effort of the preseason, running 16 times for 62 yards and a TD. As for Pierce, he carried 10 times for only 7 yards, and he fumbled. Pierce is a good back and he will be a larger factor, but there should be enough production to go around for Rice, who should be more active in the passing game given all their issues at receiver.

There are 80 more players from Week Three of the preseason covered online, so subscribe today and get the current information you need to dominate your draft!

---------------

Copyright © 1995-2013
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Web: www.fantasyguru.com

 



To unsubscribe, click here
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)