Wednesday, August 21, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Good Vibes/Bad Vibes (8/21/13)


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8/21/13 

Former FantasyGuru.com Subscriber:
We’re posting updates on Facebook and Twitter regarding our written content (as well as podcasts, chats, polls, etc.), so feel free to check us out there. Otherwise, simply check in with the site on a daily basis because we’re usually updating or posting 4-5 articles a day in addition to keeping up with all the news, notes, and injury updates. As for the rankings/projections, we’re doing our significant updates early (early Tuesday) and late (Friday afternoons) to our various rankings, projections, cheat sheets, excel tools, etc.

As usual, we're not e-mailing much content here in the preseason, but we know a lot of readers have been asking about this one below, so here it is via e-mail:

Good Vibes/Bad Vibes


by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 8/21/13 

It’s obvious that fantasy football has never been more popular than it is right now. It’s also obvious that the activity is more competitive than ever, and that’s probably why you’re subscribing to this site and reading this article right now. It’s been a tougher preseason than usual to cover, since it’s been a little more chaotic. But at least I’ve expected that to be the case all off-season.
 
I fully understand we are a pay service, and while I think we offer more than enough subscriber benefits to warrant the $1 a week our service essentially costs, I certainly do want to avoid making mistakes, and I want to put out the best possible advice and analysis to give readers an edge.  We try to do this by covering all the news as it relates to fantasy, and we have now a lot of legit sources to help us to form our opinions, especially our own Adam Caplan, who is seriously dialed in. We also have elite NFL minds like Greg Cosell on our side to help us better understand personnel and the league overall. 
 
My role is that I absorb all this information and analysis we have flying around us, while also watching all the games and using my 20+ years of experience and instincts to put everything into a fantasy football perspective. A big part of this is accounting for everything I’ve seen and heard to form “vibes” for all 32 teams and their players. I’ve been doing this for years, and it’s been a pretty darn good indicator of things to come, so I’m back at it again in 2013.
 
While you’ll see below what my vibes are for all teams and their key players, you’ll also notice that this serves as a nice “CliffsNotes” version of everything we’re putting out there in the preseason. So if you read one thing on the site before your draft, this is probably the best thing to check out.
 
Note: I’ll be updating this almost in real-time the next two weeks after preseason games to make sure everyone is completely up-to-date on everything going on.
 
Arizona Cardinals – I’ve watched the Cardinals closely this summer, and we have a great source within the organization, and overall I’d have to say the vibes have been good. QB Carson Palmer has been getting good protection, and he’s thrown the ball well. We even saw positive signs from RB Rashard Mendenhall from the second preseason game, where he looked good. Backup Ryan Williams is still on the shelf, but I like rookie Stepfan Taylor as a dark horse in this backfield. He’s nothing special talent-wise, but he’s reliable, durable, and versatile (including pass pro). As we’ve said all summer, I think Bruce Arians will appreciate Taylor and will be inclined to give him opportunities. If there are injuries in this backfield, Arians won’t have much of a choice. I was able to spend some time in July with WR Larry Fitzgerald, and he’s very optimistic about the offense, and he’s looking solid. I like Michael Floyd, but I don’t see a ton of upside here, especially with WR Andre Roberts looking like something of a moveable joker in this offense. In fact, I’m now thinking that Roberts could be Arians’ T.Y. Hilton this year, and he’s a pretty good player so he’s really under the radar and is a great pick in deep leagues. These three wideouts give Palmer a nice trio. The only bad vibe I’m getting here is with TE Rob Housler, who has done next to nothing in the preseason. The talent is there, and this is a huge year for him, but Arians’ offense isn’t known for using the TE, and we’re seeing that kind of play out so far. We’re told the team isn’t particularly happy with him right now.  
 
Atlanta Falcons – I love the Falcons in general because they are usually so easy to figure out, and this year is no exception. The vibes haven’t been wonderful with some OL concerns and a lack of depth at receiver, but the overall they have been fine. It’s rare that I’ll back a 30-year old RB, but I think the vibes are good on Steven Jackson, who looked in the second preseason game like Darren Sproles in terms of his movement compared to Michael Turner. I saw a play in the second preseason game in which QB Matt Ryan checked out of a pass play due to the defense and Jackson ripped off a 10-year run and looked good doing it. I think we’ll see that a lot. I don’t expect a ton of rushing yards, but I do expect a lot of goal line carries and a nice number of pass targets, so Jackson should deliver. We’ve seen a few minor injury issues with WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White, but it’s no big deal right now. My gut feeling on Jones is that he will take another step forward in his development and on the stat sheet, if healthy. I have no qualms with Tony Gonzalez, who certainly doesn’t need to do much in the preseason in his final NFL campaign.
 
Baltimore Ravens – The OL is still very strong here and Joe Flacco is obviously a very good player, but they have some issues. The lack of viable options for Flacco in the passing game has kept the vibes shaky here. Now, I’m still more than fine with Ray Rice, who should benefit from these issues, especially in PPR (more check-downs and targets) and he’s just so reliable in terms of his availability. I don’t love Torrey Smith, but I have no real issue with him at his current ADP, as he continues to slowly progress and become a more complete receiver (although I do still see him as a deep and run-after-the-catch guy and not a volume wideout). I’d avoid the TE situation here, since Ed Dickson can’t be counted on and Dallas Clark was added. Dickson at least thinks he’ll be ready for Week One. I don’t see any of their young wideouts truly emerging here and it looks like a committee behind Smith. Also, I gotta say I’m really intrigued by their fantasy defense. It’s a pretty major reshuffle, but they are loaded with talent everywhere, so they could surprise.
 
Buffalo Bills – It’s a shame about the knee injury suffered by QB E.J. Manuel, but it’s not a deal-breaker for his viability as a late pick. This is a very young team and a new system, but the vibes have been pretty good. I was around Manuel at the combine and he’s a very impressive kid, so I do have a good vibe on him. He’s still got some mechanical issues and could be swarmed by some of the better defenses once he’s healthy (and he will start when he is, maybe even Week One), but I do like him as a late pick. Head coach Doug Marrone coached in the NFL for the Saints and their great offense, so he should be prepared for the NFL. If we’ve learned one thing about the QBs for fantasy over the last 2-3 years, it’s that young players can produce if they run, and that’s especially true since NFL offenses are more like college offenses than ever before. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach for most of their young wideouts, but I do like Robert Woods, and Marcus Easley has really flashed. If Easley can actually contribute (major injury problems), that would help since he does have size and talent. The vibes cannot be anything but good on C.J. Spiller, who’s looked fantastic this summer, and the OL isn’t that bad at all. Even Fred Jackson looked better in the second game. Overall, things could be a lot worse here.
 
Carolina Panthers – Not a ton going on here, so the vibes aren’t negative, at least. We’re seeing QB Cam Newton still miss on some throws, so his ball location continues to be an issue. But we’re also seeing him line up under center a lot more, which is a clear sign they will run a more conventional offense and will run the ball more. That should help Newton. I think DeAngelo Williams looks really good this summer, and with Jonathan Stewart still MIA, Williams is looking like your starter to open the season. It would be nice to see someone other than Steve Smith step up at receiver, but at least with David Gettis, Domenik Hixon, Ted Ginn, and a possibly emerging Armanti Edwards, they have some numbers and probably a better chance for someone to emerge who can actually help the offense. Right now it looks like Gettis, who has had a god camp. He’s not draftable, but he has talent and size, so he could help this offense and Newton. Brandon LaFell and TE Greg Olsen are certainly serviceable.
 
Chicago Bears – I’ve been very high on Matt Forte ever since Marc Trestman was hired, and he looked great in the second preseason game. He even scored a short TD, so I’m more than fine with Forte. I also have a solid vibe on Michael Bush, who did score in the second preseason game. And Brandon Marshall is obviously fine. But unless he lights it up in the key third preseason game, I’m not feeling great about QB Jay Cutler. We’re seeing him get the ball out quicker, which is the design of the offense. But we’re also seeing the same old Cutler. He’s been hard to trust on a week-to-week basis and while I believe in Trestman and his system, it might be too much to ask to expect everything to go wonderfully in 2013. TE Martellus Bennett is certainly a solid backup, and there is some upside potential here. But right now that’s just on paper, as we’re not seeing much from him. On the bright side, the Bear defense looks like it could still be a force for fantasy, despite the new coaching staff and scheme.  
 

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