Sunday, August 11, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Preseason Week 1 Stock Watch (8/11/13)

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8/11/13:

Former Subscriber:
Below, you'll find a snippet of the latest Stock Watch report, released this evening. As we covered in a previous e-mail, we have a lot of new stuff this year, so here's a quick reminder of some of more interesting offerings:

  • New site design
  • Draft Analyzer software
  • Draft Guru iPhone app
  • Upgraded MyGuru iPhone/Droid App
  • Auction Guru (Excel)
  • FANTASYGURU.COM NEWS FEED
  • More articles than ever
  • New Game Center Interface
  • Projections Filtering
  • Larger staff

Here’s what we’ve updated just this past week, and we'll be cranking out a ton of stuff this coming week like Values and Players to Target, Position Battles, More Mock Drafts, Rookie Report, Updated 2013 Draft Plan, and much more.

The Stock Watch

Updated, 8/11/13 


The market opened for real this weekend, and while there may not have been many clear losers, there are some clear winners at this early stage. They’re covered below, along with every single observation of note I can think of as of original publication Sunday evening.
 
Note: As usual, this report will be updated on an ongoing basis early on in the week, and there will be another one once the second week of the preseason wraps up.
  
Upgrades
 
Quarterbacks
 
Sam Bradford (Stl) – Just as we suspected all off-season, the Rams have designs on rolling with a spread offense, and that’s good news for Bradford, who lit it up in college in a spread. On one early play, the Rams went empty backfield with five receivers. They are probably keeping their plans for explosive rookie Tavon Austin under wraps, but Bradford quickly started connecting down the field to WR Chris Givens, who is clearly ascending, and Bradford’s numbers could have looked better were it not for two drops by his receivers. The vibes here have been good, and Bradford is off to a good start.
 
Brandon Weeden (Cle) – Weeden silenced some of his critics and skeptics with an impressive preseason opener, and the starting job is unquestionably his. The second-year QB led the team to 10 points in his two drives, completing 10-of-13 passes for 112 yards and a 2-yard TD pass to RB Dion Lewis. Weeden had great protection and looked comfortable and steady in the pocket, so the effects of being with OC Norv Turner, an excellent QB coach, may already be paying off. Weeden is a good fit for Turner’s offense, and he has what it takes to play at a pretty high level. He’s a low-end backup all the way for fantasy, but there is legitimate potential for him to surprise this year if his receiving corps is intact.
 
E.J. Manuel (Buf) – Manuel played the entire first half, so he got a lot of work in the opener. Most likely, that’s to prepare him to be the Week One starter. Manuel struggled early against the top defense, but overall had a promising debut, going 16-of-21 for 107 yards with a nice TD pass in the red zone and 0 INTs. He still has some footwork issues, but he showed poise and accuracy and did a nice job with his progressions and by finding the open guy in their short passing game. Again, we have to be careful about young QBs working against mostly backups in the preseason, and he could easily struggle greatly in the regular season against starters. But for those looking for a deep sleeper at QB in deeper leagues or almost any league, we have to look at Manuel because he’ll run (3 carries for 28 yards in the first half). He’s a big guy, and it’s clear they will take advantage of his legs. If we learned anything from the last two seasons, it’s that young QBs can put up nice numbers for fantasy – if they run.
 
Michael Vick (Phi) – Vick got the start for the Eagles and reminded everyone just how explosive the offense (or any offense) can be with him under center. On the team’s first drive of the game, on their fifth play from scrimmage, Vick threw a beautiful ball to lead WR DeSean Jackson into the endzone for a 47-yard TD. Vick remained in the game for the second drive, but came away empty-handed. He finished 4/5 for 94 yards with a TD, and didn’t have a rushing attempt. According to our Adam Caplan, who’s been at most of their practices this summer, Vick’s accuracy and timing have probably been the best he’s seen since Vick has been in Philadelphia. Vick did show improvement in those areas in 2010 only to regress, and Nick Foles also played well in the opener, but the new scheme is forcing him to get the ball out faster, and Vick is inching upward.
 
Matt Flynn (QB, Oak) – As if it wasn’t perfectly clear already, Flynn will be the starter for the Raiders, and we won’t see anything resembling a QB controversy unless he’s brutally bad in the regular season. You always have to be careful with young/inexperienced QBs in the preseason, but while Flynn was sacked and fumbled on the Raiders’ first possession of the game, he looked like a professional QB against the Cowboys. He hung well in the pocket and stepped up nicely when he had to and delivered the ball to his receivers accurately. Head coach Dennis Allen seemed pretty pleased with his play at halftime.
 
Running Backs
 
C.J. Spiller (Buf) – Watching Spiller and Fred Jackson in the opener was eye-opening. We’ve always loved Jackson, but Spiller looks like he’s moving twice as fast as the veteran. He opened the season deep in his own territory and proceeded to pop off runs of 17 and 15 yards right off the bat, so he put up 32 yards in the blink of an eye and once again showed a rare ability to create space for himself and run away from defenders. There was a bad exchange and fumble with Spiller and E.J. Manuel, but the hype is sky-high on Spiller, and we’re also in with all that. 
 
Jamaal Charles (KC) – As if there was any doubt, Charles looks like he’s going to get a ton of touches under Andy Reid. He looked great in the passing game in the preseason opener. He ran for only 13 yards on 5 carries, but he led the team in receiving, with 3 catches for 27 yards and those three catches came early in the contest. Charles looked very comfortable and dangerous catching the rock out of the backfield from QB Alex Smith, who had a strong Chief debut.
 
Daryl Richardson (Stl) – While we haven’t discounted former #2 pick Isaiah Pead this year, we’ve clearly given Richardson the edge overall in this backfield all off-season, and he got off to a very good start in the opener. Richardson was very decisive and showed very nice quickness, plus he looked really good on an early 17-yard catch-and-run out of the backfield (although he did drop a pass over the middle). Considering he looked better than Pead, who also had an ugly fumble and is suspended for the first game of the season, and considering Richardson had a nice rookie season with Pead literally doing nothing, Richardson looks like a lock to be your Week One starter. This could still wind up being more of an RBBC situation, but there’s no question Richardson will have value, no matter what this year – and he has upside if Pead and rookie Zac Stacy don’t command touches.
 
Shane Vereen (NE) – The hype may start getting out of control quickly with Vereen, but we’ve certainly been pushing him as a nice pick all year ourselves. Vereen may not have lit up the stat sheet in Friday’s win over the Eagles (3 carries, 12 yards, 2/18/1 on 4 targets), but it’s looking more and more like the Patriots will be featuring him in their passing game this season as a moveable chess piece. Vereen’s best play of the night came on a diving, 13-yard TD catch in the corner of the endzone on the team’s second drive of the night. He was lined up outside for the play, and it was great timing by both him and QB Tom Brady, who threw a perfect pass. We’re always worried about roles for Patriot RBs, but it’s not unwise to assume Vereen’s will be expansive this year as a receiver and also as a runner.
 
Chris Johnson (Ten) – We’re certainly not going to overreact to Johnson’s big run in the preseason opener, especially since he looked good last preseason and terrible in September, but it’s hard not to come away with a positive impression, given the upgrades they have made on the OL this year. That reconstructed line got off to an impressive start Thursday night, springing Johnson to a long 58-yard TD run and newcomer Shonn Greene to a 19-yard TD run, all in the first quarter. Johnson’s improv skills helped him to his long TD run, cutting left against the pursuit, but what stood out to us is that he was untouched on the run. Johnson is really tough to project, given his boom-or-bust tendencies, but it’s fair to believe he will “boom” more than he “busts” behind this revamped line. That’s an important point because Greene is a good bet to collect most of the carries on top of the goal, and we still do have questions about Johnson’s production in the passing game. He did very poorly in the passing game with QB Jake Locker under center last year (and also Matt Hasselbeck), and we’re told there won’t be much of a concerted effort to get the ball to the backs as receivers out of the backfield. But he has been catching the ball better than last season, and Johnson has looked fresher and more explosive during training camp than he did last season. They will look to run the ball a lot, and the Titans announced their intent to be a power-running team, starting the game with 2 TEs, a fullback, and just 1 WR. 
 
Order in 1 minute here for 55 more players covered in the latest Stock Watch!

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