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The Stock Watch
Updated, 8/25/14
Also see:
- 100 players covered the week of August 18th
- 80 players covered the week of August 11th
- 60 Players covered the week of August 4th
- 58 players covered the week of July 28th
As the third preseason games have wrapped up, and with the regular season now rapidly approaching, one thing is clear to us: the 2014 fantasy landscape has never been so chaotic and up-in-the-air. There are definitely many players who are really standing out as strong picks, but thanks in large part to an incredibly deep rookie class, we’ve never seen more roles up in the air. Heck, we’ve never seen so many kicker battles in our 20 years as we see right now (just don’t draft anyone outside our top-15 or so).
It’s never been more difficult for us to rank and project the roughly 400 skill players/defensive teams than it is right now (plus IDP), so the best advice we can give to you is to read out content and get a feel for expected roles, possible roles, upside, downside, and your expectations for these players.
And you won’t find a better place to start than our Stock Watch report…
Upgrades
Recent news and/or performances have made us more optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (Sea) – Wilson’s been on absolute fire this preseason. In the Seahawks’ dress rehearsal, he may have put together his best performance yet – he completed 15/20 passes for 202 yards and 2 TDs against the Bears, connecting with WR Jermaine Kearse (4/63/1) for 12-yard TD pass and with RB Christine Michael for a 7-yard TD. Wilson ran for his third TD of the preseason as well, scoring from 7 yards away and finishing with 4 carries for 23 yards and a TD. He’s completed 77% of his passes (30/39) and accounted for 5 TDs this preseason, and given some questions about guys in front of him, it’s fair to think he’s ready to take the next step into being a strong fantasy QB1, and we’ve moved him into our top-12. He may not have explosive upside from that spot, but he’s a very safe pick.
Matt Cassel (Min) – Cassel may not hold down the top job for the entire year, but he’s looked good enough to handle it for at least the early going, and he will be the Vikings’ Week One starter. He had an up-and-down game against his former club, throwing and pick, almost throwing another, and being caught for a safety (basically, being Matt Cassel). But all-in-all he did well, finishing 9/17 for 152 yards with a TD and a pick. He has a solid OL, some weapons to throw to, and a pretty good back behind him in Adrian Peterson. While Teddy Bridgewater played very well this preseason also and will be looking be a presence over Cassel’s shoulder, Cassel has the weapons to hold down some fantasy value if he’s needed while he has this job. As we’ve said several times, as much as we really like Bridgewater, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Cassel truly exceled under QB guru Norv Turner and in his offense.
Running Backs
Eddie Lacy (GB) – There’s no second-year RB set up in a better position to succeed than Lacy, behind an improving offensive line (even without C J.C. Tretter, who has a knee injury) and with an elite QB in Aaron Rodgers. In the Packers’ third preseason game, Lacy absolutely solidified his position in our preseason top-five overall with a stellar showing in an up-tempo offense. Lacy was done after the opening drive, picking up 36 yards and a TD on 6 carries before giving way to RB James Starks (7 carries, 9 yards, 2/32, 5 targets). A violent downhill stop-and-start runner who converts short-yardage opportunities and has better hands than people think, we’re confident that only health issues could prevent Lacy from absolutely blowing up in 2014.
Montee Ball (Den) – We were hoping Ball would make a cameo appearance in the preseason finale, so it was obviously a great sign for Ball to surprise and play in the third preseason game. Ball started and posted a productive stat line – 4/13 rushing, 4/21 receiving (he caught all 4 of his targets). Most important, Ball took several hits with seemingly no problems. With Wes Welker’s status in serious doubt, that’s all the more reason to get the ball to Ball, and no Welker could help Ball’s catch total climb. We think he’s an excellent second-round pick as it stands, but would have no problem with him creeping into the back end of the first for those tradition-inclined fantasy players.
Shane Vereen (NE) – Vereen is obviously a PPR beast – the Pats pepper him with targets, and they move him all around the formation. But last year, he had an unusually low catch rate for a RB, in the low 60s. It could be for two reasons – #1, his wrist injury last year had a negative affect on his hands. #2, it’s because he typically runs routes deeper than most RBs do. He put those skills on display against the Panthers on Friday night. Vereen scored 2 TDs on throws from QB Tom Brady, the first coming on an easy 40-yard catch-and-run, and the second a more traditional 6-yard scamper, on which he totally shook CB Antoine Cason. Vereen finished with 6 carries for 18 yards, but made his serious hay in the passing game, hauling in 5 passes for 56 yards and those 2 TDs. It’s entirely possible, even though unlikely, that Vereen could lead the Patriots in catches this year if healthy. Given the concerns with Stevan Ridley and the fact that James White is a rookie, expect Vereen to play a ton of snaps this year. He’s the only guy here with a clearly defined role.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones (Atl) – To put Julio’s upside into perspective, if he didn’t have legit and lingering health concerns, we might actually rank him top-5 overall. That’s crazy, but his 2013 numbers prorated over 16 games projected to an obscene 131/1858. Granted, Roddy White was out/banged up, but you get the picture. Obviously, it was great to see Julio make a big play in the Falcons’ third preseason game. He took a short pattern 52 yards to the house in the second quarter of this one, breaking multiple tackles along the way. It was a vintage Julio play, and his foot certainly looks healthy. Julio finished with 2/63/1, and is a locked-in early round WR pick, albeit with some health risk.
Emmanuel Sanders (Den) – While there was a throw from Peyton Manning that seems to show a communication/chemistry issue, it also looked like the duo has made strides in the chemistry department, big strides. Sanders, who didn’t have a single preseason target before this weekend, hauled in 5 passes for 128 yards in the Broncos’ third preseason game, including TDs of 67 and 29 yards. Both passes were unbelievable throws from Manning, who realized Sanders had a step on two defenders, and dropped the ball into the breadbasket. But Sanders deserves credit, too – on the second TD, he made an outstretched catch. Should Welker miss a lot of time, Sanders could slide into the slot, and he likely will at times, but it’s tough to figure out exactly what will happen because Sanders and vet Andre Caldwell (2/18) can line up anywhere, and rookie Cody Latimer (1/15) could also be in the mix. But the bottom line for Sanders is that his targets and value to the offense will go up now, and we’ve now seen what he can do in this offense, and it’s darn good.
Cordarrelle Patterson (Min) – Patterson did drop a catchable ball on which he had a lot of green in front of him around the 20 yard line, but we really wanted to see Patterson make a play on a ball that traveled 30-40 yards in the air at least, and we finally did on his bomb 53-yard TD early in the game this past weekend. It was a good adjustment by Patterson to track down the ball, and it was a beautifully designed play from OC Norv Turner; Patterson lined up in the slot, and a simple route combination got him isolated on rookie safety Daniel Sorensen, a matchup the Vikings will win 9 times out of 10. Patterson finished with 3 catches for a team-leading 71 yards and that TD, and if he can polish his skills and can continue to be used in a creative manner, he could be in store for a huge year. He’s still no Josh Gordon in terms of the downfield work and savvy play, but we’ve now seen enough of him in the preseason to truly get on board with him as a player to target.
Tight Ends
Heath Miller (Pit) – The Steelers’ third preseason game against the Eagles was overall a disaster, but we at least got confirmation that QB Ben Roethlisberger still really trusts Miller as a chain-mover and red-zone threat. They connected 5 times out of 6 targets, for 53 yards and a TD, the score coming against the Eagles’ second-team defense. Heath is moving pretty well another year removed from his knee surgery, and he’s looking like the potential #2 receiver here. WR Markus Wheaton (2/24) looked a bit off with Big Ben, as the two had an ugly 2 incompletions and 2 other bad targets wiped out by penalties. Miller is an ideal part of a fantasy TEBC, perhaps as a lower-end starting option to pair with an upside guy like Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz.
Richard Rodgers (GB) – Rodgers has started all three of the Packers’ preseason games, and while there’s obviously plenty for him to work on (namely his blocking), the fact that he’s earning such early reps with the offense is a damn good sign. Rodgers had a 32-yard catch on the game’s opening drive, and clearly offers more upside than Andrew Quarless while Brandon Bostick misses time with a fractured fibula. For now, it appears unlikely that Rodgers will have significant fantasy value early on, given that Quarless still got first-team reps and scored a TD from QB Aaron Rodgers. But if you’re looking for a talented option at TE to add in the late rounds or in a keeper league, Rodgers simply fits the bill.
Jace Amaro (NYJ) – Amaro was struggling in a big way early in Jets’ training camp, with reports suggesting that he was swimming in the playbook and was trying to keep afloat. But he’s turned it around in recent weeks, and in the Jets’ third preseason game he saw significant time with the first-team offense, catching 4 passes for 37 yards and a TD, as vet Jeff Cumberland continues to nurse an Achilles issue. Amaro’s improved considerably in recent weeks, and it makes us much more receptive to using a late-round upside pick on him than we would have been a few weeks ago.
Placekickers
Dan Carpenter (Buf) – The team cut big-legged Dustin Hopkins, a 6th round pick last year, so it’s all Carpenter. With Hopkins cut, he’s a guy other teams will take a look at, we’d assume.
Nate Freese (Det) – This battle was close early on, but it looks like Freese, the 7th round pick, is the Lions’ winner. He beat out Giorgio Tavecchio, who was released, and MLive.com reports the Lions will not look for another veteran. Freese will have the job, and could be an appealing streamer, kicking indoors with this offense.
Team Defenses
Note: We’re upgrading and covering a few defenses based on what we’ve seen out of the first-team units the first 1-2 quarters of the second preseason game and the first 2-3 of the third.
Downgrades
Recent news and/or performances that have made us less optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Stevan Ridley (NE) – Ridley appears to be squarely on the roster bubble, and ESPN Boston reporter Mike Reiss has projected that Ridley won’t make the 53-man roster (it’s just a prediction, not etched in stone). Ridley played just 11 snaps in the Patriots’ third preseason game, a week after he fumbled in the second preseason game. Ridley did run 8 times for 28 yards without a fumble against the Panthers, and he ran hard like you’d expect from him. Ridley remains the Patriots’ most talented early-down back, but if coach Bill Belichick can’t trust him, he won’t play and he could possibly miss the cut for this roster. We still expect Ridley to make this team, but it’s not a great sign that Ridley has slipped so far that he’s on the roster bubble. The Patriots clearly like rookie RB James White, even though he’s looked pedestrian, and he’s clearly the biggest beneficiary if Ridley is released. The other would be Brandon Bolden, who can basically play the Ridley role and who brings more versatility to the table than Ridley (plus Bolden plays special teams).
Wide Receivers
Wes Welker (Den) – There was only one reason why we’ve been very concerned with Welker as a fantasy option this year, and it didn’t even take until the regular season to rear its ugly head. If Welker decides to hang ‘em up after suffering a concussion in this game on a hit from S D.J. Swearinger, it would be the right thing to do. In fact, Welker probably should have retired by now. After his latest concussion, it’s hard to argue that continuing to play is wise. Before getting injured, Welker caught 4 passes for 42 yards, but that obviously is completely secondary to his health and status, which is “out indefinitely.” However, late Monday it was revealed that Welker has a chance to play in Week One, so he’s apparently not considering retirement. That doesn’t mean he should be targeted, though.
Tight Ends
None of note.
Placekickers
Matt Prater (Den) – He’s obviously suspended four games, so he’s a major downgrade. UDFA Mitch Ewald is on roster, but they’re expected to look for a veteran fill-in and will likely wait until cuts to evaluate their situation.
Alex Henery (Phi) – The Eagles want to replace Henery badly. They traded for UDFA Cody Parkey, who has a big leg and led the NCAA in touchbacks at Auburn. It’s possible they carry both Henery and Parkey to get more evaluation time, but they could also wait until cuts and then get rid of Henery.
Jay Feely (Ari) – The Cardinals cut Feely Monday afternoon, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. It looks like the Cardinals are going to roll with rookie Chandler Catanzaro as their kicker, unless they bring in some additional competition this week.
Team Defenses
Pittsburgh Steelers (Pit) – The Steelers had miserable defensive displays versus the Eagles and the Giants this preseason. The Eagles average 6.1 yards per play, and back-up quarterback Mark Sanchez maneuvered down the field with ease against the Steelers starting unit. This team has a combination of youth and experience; however, they have yet to mesh properly. Rookie Ryan Shazier has been a bright spot and shown flashes of being a tackle machine in the middle of this defensive group. In 2013, the Steelers were 29th in INTs and 25th in sacks. We’re not sure there is room for drastic improvement with the roster they’ve assembled. They need young players like Jarvis Jones to develop and contribute exponentially quicker.
Holding Steady
These players have been in the news in one way or another, but we think their fantasy stock remains largely unchanged.
Drew Brees (QB, NO) – Brees finally saw some game action on Saturday, but played just one quarter. The Saints were smart to be cautious with Brees and he didn’t look rusty, throwing for 128 yards and 2 TDs on 9/15 passing. Brees played just three series, but came out with 14 points on the board and he made some incredibly accurate throws. The Saints did lose WR Kenny Stills, who aggravated his aggravating quad injury, but New Orleans has plenty of receiver depth. They may actually run the ball a little more this year – yes, we’ve said that in the past – but they have a great schedule and Brees now has a weapon in Brandin Cooks who just might take the league by storm, so Brees is all set.
Nick Foles (QB, Phi) – Foles missed some throws in the third preseason game, but overall he calmed down and posted a solid 19/29, 179-yard, 1-TD, 1-INT line. His lone pick came on a designed screen, on which Darren Sproles fell down. Foles also narrowly overthrew Sproles on a wheel route that would have been a TD. Simple luck will raise Foles’ INT ratio in 2014, but it was good to see another solid performance from him after his lackluster opener. Foles’ TD was a 22-yard designed screen to LeSean McCoy, who did what Shady does. We are a little concerned with WR Jeremy Maclin’s knee, but we do feel much better about Foles when Maclin is on the field. Foles steadily improved as the preseason went along, so we don’t any major worries about him heading into Week One.
Tom Brady (QB, NE) – Brady faced about no pressure from the Panthers in the third preseason game and finished a strong 17/21 for 204 yards and 2 TDs, working well with WR Julian Edelman and RB Shane Vereen. Brady has looked extremely sharp this preseason, and he’s been slowly climbing our projections the last couple weeks. It doesn’t hurt that TE Rob Gronkowski is rounding into shape and could be ready for Week One and that Edelman is proving to be more than a one-hit wonder with his strong training camp. If the Patriots get healthy campaigns from Gronk, Edelman, and Vereen, there’s no reason that Brady can’t finish as a top-5 fantasy QB. Of course, getting healthy seasons out of all three of those players will be difficult, but Brady’s fortunes are still looking up anyway.
Watch List
Keep an eye on these players and situations. It may be too early to make a call one way or the other on them, but they are situations worth watching.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, Mia) – Tannehill has really struggled to throw deep balls early in his career, and the issue still seems to be plaguing him in the preseason. It’s a tad disconcerting to see WR Mike Wallace running wide open for a TD only for Tannehill to throw him a pass that he has no chance of catching. Tannehill played into the 3rd quarter and threw his first pick of the preseason on what might be his last throw of the preseason. He led the team to just 3 points and finished the night 13/21 for 119 yards and an INT. Tannehill took the blame for the bad pass, as he should, and we still like him as an upside #2 fantasy QB, but he might not make the leap until he starts throwing a better deep ball.
Zach Mettenberger (QB, Ten) – HC Ken Whisenhunt said that QB Charlie Whitehurst is still the #2 QB, despite rookie QB Zach Mettenberger’s strong preseason, according to The Tennessean. We really didn’t expect Mettenberger to win the back-up job out of camp, so it certainly doesn’t take away from his awesome preseason. Mettenberger is leading the NFL in preseason passing yards with 504, and he’s still in the process of getting healthy off his ACL injury, so he’s had an impressive training camp. Whitehurst might be the backup for now, but if anything happens to QB Jake Locker or the Titans struggle, we’d expect to see Mettenberger play at some point this season.
Cam Newton (QB, Car) – Cam still doesn’t have his feet totally under him after off-season ankle surgery, and now he’s dealing with a hairline rib fracture after taking a cleat to his back in the third preseason game. The Panthers won’t know about his availability until next week, but they’re pretty optimistic that he’ll be able to play Week One. He’ll likely have to play through some pain, which isn’t exactly the most comforting thing to hear. The good news is that rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin continues to impress, catching 5 passes for 47 yards in the third preseason game. We’ve been pessimistic about all things Panthers other than Benjamin this summer, and now Cam is dealing with a rib issue to go along with his ankle issue.
Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer (QBs, Cle) – Hoyer will still be the starter Week One, barring anything unforeseen, but he didn’t exactly ease the worries of Brown fans with his performance Saturday night. Hoyer and the starters generated just 7 first downs and 7 points over seven series. He completed 10/16 for 84 yards and 1 TD, but he also threw an INT and lost a fumble. Hoyer had a terrible interception in the second quarter, as he threw into coverage and right into OLB Alec Ogletree’s arm. The Browns scored their first TD of the preseason under Hoyer’s watch on a 5-yard TD pass to WR Andrew Hawkins late in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Manziel provided the Browns a spark of the bench, completing 10/15 passes for 85 yards and adding 1/7/1 rushing. Johnny Football dove head first into the end zone on a 7-yard scramble to cap off his opening drive of the night. Of course, Johnny Football worked against backups, and he did little after his first drive of the night. This is a new offense under Kyle Shanahan, and you have to wonder if the different styles of play by both QBs have disrupted things. More likely, their struggles are simply a function of a bad set of receivers outside of Jordan Cameron.
Jamaal Charles (RB, KC) – The suspension of T Donald Stephenson is a big concern for this OL. Our guy out in KC told us over the weekend that there’s a lot of concern about the line, which is not good news for Charles. But at least it’s only 4 games. We were also told his foot issue is nothing, but if late drafters with top picks are looking for a reason to pass on Charles to take Shady McCoy or someone else, the Chiefs may have given you just cause in the preseason because their offense (at least their first-team offense) looks terrible. Through 16 first-team possessions in the preseason, the Chiefs’ starters have yet to put a TD on the board. What we’ll probably see is a ton of 2-TE sets with Anthony Fasano in to block, and a lot of screen passes to Charles and the other backs, which means a healthy Charles will still be PPR gold, but the vibes are shaky here.
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