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8/21/14
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Former FantasyGuru.com subscriber:
Here's a sneak peak at one of our most popular preseason articles each August!
Good Vibes/Bad Vibes
Published, 8/21/14
We spend a ton of time in the offseason breaking everything down for fantasy, but the reality is that a lot of that time is wasted time because we can’t truly handicap the league until we see a couple of preseason games. The preseason can be almost meaningless in some cases, but it’s all we have to go off of, and in several cases an entire offseason of analysis can be wiped away based on a preseason showing.
My goal this time of the year is simple: I just want to get it right. I don’t care what it takes to reach that goal; I just want to steer people in the right direction, and I do everything I can to achieve that. I watch all the games closely, we scour the stats and the snaps and all the news and notes, and I’m constantly talking to legit NFL insiders and sources to get the inside scoop.
While I’m doing this, as August progresses, I compose an overall vibe for each team, and each year I share them here in this article. There will be times when a bad preseason vibe winds up being irrelevant, but this article has been very popular over the last few years because people realize the preseason vibes can, in fact, be a strong indicator of things to come.
So let’s get to it…
Note: I will be updating this article regularly from now until the end of the preseason, so check the site for the latest.
Arizona Cardinals – The offensive vibes are actually pretty good, but the vibes overall could be better because they’ve dealt with some serious injuries, most notably the loss of DT Darnell Dockett. Coupled with the suspension of stud LB Daryl Washington, one of my favorite defensive players in the league, and the defense isn’t looking as strong as we thought 2-3 months ago. The time missed by WR Michael Floyd is a shame, but I’m holding steady on him for at least other 5-7 days. Otherwise, the passing offense looks good, so the vibes are okay overall. Larry Fitzgerald seems to be moving well, so that’s good. I wish would see a little more from Andre Ellington, but we’re going to have to make a little bit of a leap of faith if we’re to draft him in the 3rd or (ideally) 4th round. I view him as a key “offensive weapon,” so while I’m not totally sold on him being a guy they can line up and run the ball with consistency, I’m still high on his juice and upside.
Atlanta Falcons – The vibes here could be better. As you likely know, they Falcon OL took a hit with LT Sam Baker lost for the season. Baker isn’t very good, but he gave them some flexibility and he was eventually going to move to the right side. They at least have #1 pick Jake Matthews to plug in. Matt Ryan will be fine if his top-2 WRs are healthy, but you do worry about both Julio Jones and Roddy White’s availability, and you have to wonder aloud if they’ll miss Tony Gonzalez. I do still like Roddy and with Julio I’ll just pray he can stay healthy, but I wish I felt better about this squad. The emergence of Antone Smith, who looked fantastic in the first preseason game, is a mild concern for Devonta Freeman, but I’ve watched Freeman closely and he’s exactly what we thought he was. I just hope he sees more time against the ones in the third preseason game. Steven Jackson is improving this week, but he’s basically dead to me and you have to wonder if he’ll soon be dead to the Falcons.
Baltimore Ravens – Although the passing offense still looks like a work in progress, I’d say the vibes here are pretty good. The OL definitely looks better, and so does Ray Rice. My gut is that this is more of an RBBC with Rice and Bernard Pierce this year, but Rice needed to pass the eyeball test, and while his touch total has been low (he got dinged up last week), he has. Pierce is also looking solid. I’ve heard nothing but good things aboutSteve Smith, so I think he’ll be sneaky productive (little upside, though). Torrey Smith should have his best season to date, but I’d still classify him as more one-trick pony then he is complete receiver. This isn’t Andre Johnson, that’s for sure, but Smith could string together more big plays and deliver. But he’s still not someone I’m comfortable truly pushing.
Buffalo Bills – I get a sense of a quiet chaos in Buffalo, due to a variety of factors. It’s not a good sign when my gut tells me the only Bill player I want is a 33-year old RB, but Fred Jackson, as we’ve outlined for weeks, is really jumping off the page as a sneaky value. His body could break down, of course, but my source there confirmed to me two months ago that Jackson will remain the third-down back and the goal line back because they really trust him, and we’ve seen that in the preseason. As for C.J. Spiller, I’m not getting a good vibe at all. He’s still a young guy and an elite mover, but they don’t use him well and his lack of touches should limit his potential. Heck, they’re even using him as a return man, which is a bad sign. He’s not off the grid to me because he is a high-end talent, but I’m not targeting him at this point and will take him only if he’s a value in at least the 4th round and/or if I really need a back and want some upside and juice. I’m not high on the passing game, even stud Sammy Watkins, because I already think that this is what EJ Manuel is, and it’s not very good. I’m not feeling great about Doug Marrone, and I wish Chan Gailey was still here.
Carolina Panthers – The vibes did get better with QB Cam Newton back last week, and with RB Jonathan Stewart looking good, but let’s not get too optimistic. This is still a very suspect OL, and Cam is working with a new receiving corps, so there will be growing pains. I’m still not high on anyone here – accept rookie Kelvin Benjamin. I think Benjamin at worst will have some rookie issues early on, but will still make some plays and be fantasy relevant. At best, he quickly handles NFL defensive backs – very possible given his great size and ability to run – and he makes a fantasy splash right out of the gate. Benjamin is really standing out due to his physical tools and his opportunity, and he’s very affordable in drafts.
Chicago Bears – The vibes here are excellent. I know Jay Cutler has been a pain in the rear, but if you’ve been on the site for a while you know that I’ve loved Cutler from Day One. I’ve backed off in recent seasons and rightfully so, but I’m all in on him this year. The payoff vs. the price tag to draft him is just too appealing. If healthy all year, he’ll throw 30+ TDs and he’ll be a great producer in this offense. I’m a little concerned with Matt Forte’sadvanced age and a tougher schedule, but Forte is the ultimate pro, and I see zero signs of a slow-down, plus his receiving production in this great offense really helps. Needless to say, I’m generally high on all their key players and I couldn’t respect HC Marc Trestman more.
Cincinnati Bengals – Pretty darn good vibes here. The offense has been crisp and in rhythm this preseason, and A.J. Green is still special. They should once again have a solid OL, and while the Marvin Jones injury is a buzz kill, he will be back this year, and Mohamed Sanu had stepped up nicely. I’m not convinced Tyler Eifert will break out this year with Jermaine Gresham around, but he’s a high-end talent with upside, and by 2015 he could really come on, so he’s a worthy flyer late. We’ll see if BenJarvus Green-Ellis makes the team, since that would throw a monkey wrench into the Jeremy Hill plan. Regardless, I’m still very high on Gio Bernard, who should get 275-300 touches if healthy.
Cleveland Browns – Well, the vibes here are not very good. Brian Hoyer has been named the starter, but not based on his play in the second preseason game, which is a little disconcerting. It’s a new offense, and so far an unimaginative offense (it is the preseason), and the presence of Johnny Manziel makes this an unstable situation. We haven’t really reacted with his projection because Jordan Cameron is very talented, but I am concerned with Manziel, who will likely play by September’s end, hurting Cameron. So at least for now Cameron’s value should be stable with Hoyer in. The Brown running game does look good, and we know they will run it a ton, so the vibes are fine there. Ben Tate looks very good, actually, but I really like Terrance West and I’m sure he’s going to be a big fantasy factor at some point. You may have noticed that we’ve had the Brown defense ridiculously high all year, and they look fantastic this summer. This is an incredibly talented defense that should surprise given the personnel and the input from new head coach Mike Pettine. I’m told the Browns are preparing for the worst when it comes to Josh Gordon, so even an 8-game suspension seems too optimistic (but who knows what the league is thinking in terms of the negative PR related to the minimal Ray Rice suspension). Word on Gordon could be coming down within the next 2-3 days.
Dallas Cowboys – You always worry about things spiraling out of control here, due mostly to their defense, which will be brutal this year. But the vibes offensively are good. You have to love this offensive line, and Tony Romo looked like Romo in the second preseason game. DeMarco Murray is still a lock to produce if healthy, and Dez Bryant looked more monstrous than ever last weekend. I’ve been told that Terrance Williams has had a nice summer, and he’s a nice complement to Bryant. Williams has a good chance to make some big plays on the outside in single coverage with Dez commanding a lot of attention. I also like secondary guys Lance Dunbar and even Cole Beasley in the slot, especially Dunbar, who could easily settle in as a viable flex guy in a large (14 teams or more) PPR league.
Denver Broncos – The Montee Ball situation was a buzz kill, but now that he’s already back practicing, I can’t worry too much about it. It would have been nice to see some reps in the preseason, but maybe he can make at least a cameo appearance by the preseason’s end. Otherwise, the vibes have been fine. Let’s not forget they get a stud LT in Ryan Clady back this year, and Peyton Manning has been more than fine this summer. I loveJulius Thomas and do not believe we’ve seen the best he has to offer just yet. We haven’t seen Emmanuel Sanders get a target yet, which is a mild concern but I would think they’re okay not tipping their hand in terms of their utilization of Sanders, who did sit out the second game with a minor injury. I’m also told they are very, very pleased with rookie WR Cody Latimer, so he will be a great pickup if there’s a WR injury. Peyton has been feeding the ball to Demaryius Thomas in the preseason, which is nice to see.
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