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The Stock Watch
Updated, 8/11/14
Also see:
· 60 Players covered the week of August 4th
· 58 players covered the week of July 28th
It’s still early, but with one preseason game in the books, things are starting to come into greater focus when it comes to the upcoming 2014 fantasy campaign.
As always, we’re all over it with inside information, game tape analysis, and more.
Check back throughout the week because we’ll be updating and adding to this report through Thursday.
Upgrades
Recent news and/or performances have made us more optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill (Mia) – He might not be worth an upgrade based on one preseason game against a shabby defense, but it was definitely a good sign how the Dolphin offense was way ahead of their defensive opponent in their 2014 debut. Receivers were running wide open, and Tannehill wasmasterful running the offense, which actually showed commitment to running the football and allowed Tannehill to work the Falcon defense with smooth execution of play-action. Tannehill showed a great command of the offense, was decisive, and the Dolphins didn’t have a negative play in their opening drive, which culminated with a 6-yard TD pass from Tannehill to WR Brandon Gibson. The Dolphins have tweaked Tannehill's footwork during training camp in order to improve his accuracy, and so far their efforts are paying off. Tannehill finished the night 6/6 for 62 yards and the TD. We should note he did this without the services of starters WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, and TE Charles Clay. Tannehill got great protection, a huge problem in 2013. It’s not going to be this easy going forward, but this was a very good start.
Running Backs
Carlos Hyde (SF) – Hyde got the start for Frank Gore and lost some sleep before the game because he was told he’d get the first touch of the game. It went well, as he went for 7 yards. Hyde then had his best carry of the night came off left end when he showed some speed to pick up 19 yards. Hyde passed the eye-ball test big time in his debut, and he quickly showed that he’s more than a between-the-tackles runner, as he showcased his underrated speed to the outside on his 19-yard run. Gore told us last year that the team preferred to limit his exposure in goal line situations, which is why he had several short TDs vultured from him. Those could all be going to Hyde this year. He’s also looked very good in camp.
Terrance West (Cle) – Forget about his poor 10/22 line rushing in his preseason debut because West did get blown up behind the (backup) offensive line a few times, and it was not his fault. But otherwise, we thought he looked very, very good. West moved pretty well and ran hard and with patience. He also looked fairly comfortable catching an 8-yard pass. Starter Ben Tate looked pretty good himself, but we’re envisioning a 60/40 split between Tate and West, so there should be a healthy role from West right out of the gate. And obviously, West has upside to get 80% of the touches (or more) and Tate succumbs to injury yet again.
Rashad Jennings (NYG) – We obviously like what rookie Andre Williams has done this preseason, and we’re definitely preparing for a substantial role for Williams. But we didn’t really budge with our projection for Jennings after Williams’ promising debut last week because we know Jennings is still the top back. And Jennings proved that he’s still the go-to guy here after Saturday night’s game. Jennings squirted through a hole and raced 73 yards for a long TD in the first quarter, showing off his surprising long speed for a big back. Jennings finished with 5 carries for 85 yards and his long TD, and it’s obvious that he will see plenty of work as an every-down back this season. Especially since the new passing game has been slow off the mark, we’re expecting the Giants to run the ball a ton (good news for Williams as well), and Jennings actually has 50+ catch potential in this offense. Remember that when we asked Eli Manning about his backfield in June, the first thing he mentioned was Jennings’ receiving ability. It’s a cliché, but we’re also told that Jennings is in the best shape of his career, and it’s showed in two preseason games.
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Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks (NO) – The hype, it is for real. As most know, Cooks landed in the perfect situation playing in New Orleans, with a future Hall of Fame QB in Drew Brees and with the best play-caller in the business in head coach Sean Payton. That’s why he’s been our #1 rookie WR since early May. What Cooks lacks in size, he makes up for with his speed and versatility. Cooks told us this spring he can play outside no problem, and he did most of that in college, and he worked inside and outside in his preseason debut. He didn’t start, but he had plenty of time to show off his full skillset, catching 5 of his 8 targets for 55 yards and a 25-yard TD. His TD came on a ball caught at the numbers before cutting back inside to fly right by the defense. His role isn’t exactly clear just yet – he told us he can be a deep threat on the outside, but will they use him that way? – but it’s already becoming very evident that he will absorb a healthy portion of the departed Darren Sproles’ 71 catches from 2013. It’s only August 11th, but we have to already say that we wouldn’t be surprised at all if Cooks got 70+ catches this year, and we’re already officially begging you to draft him in the 7th or even the 6th round.
T.Y. Hilton (Ind) – Hilton is actually a fairly tough call for fantasy, given the great receiving options they have now compared to the second half of the season last year, when Hilton was a volume guy. But we’ve been moving him up our board lately (we’ve always been very high on him), and we haven’t forgotten his offseason quotes about the game slowing down for him and how he’s more comfortable than ever. That’s scary, especially since Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne commanding plenty of attention, not to mention their two TEs. Hilton may not get a ton of snaps and targets, but he’ll obviously be a pretty big factor, and he’ll be a serious threat to make a big play at any moment. He got off to a great start with QB Andrew Luck, hauling in 3 balls for 38 yards on their first drive of their first preseason game, including 22 and 17-yard catch-and-run plays.
Kelvin Benjamin (Car) – If you’re reading our key content (Draft Plan, Stock Watch, etc.) you know we’ve been very fond of Benjamin the last few weeks at his current cheap ADP, but it will rise if he continues to impress in the preseason. Lined up one-on-one with top CB Stephon Gilmore, a very good corner, Benjamin gained some separation, and managed to haul in a throw in the endzone despite stumbling. The 28-yard TD and brought the hometown crowd to its feet and was certainly a good sign. It’s crystal clear that he will be a starter and a key receiver who commands the ball (already), so if he continues to show that he can produce against NFL competition in the preseason, he’ll look more and more appealing.
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Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) – We’ve been high on Kelce as a late-round bargain sleeper since this spring, and he was ranked a very proactive #21 on our TE board before this game, but his stock is shooting way up already. He’s had a tough first year in the pros, missing time in the preseason last year and seeing only a cameo appearance in the regular season before going on IR. He was held out for most of the OTAs coming back from trick microfracture surgery, but we were told two weeks ago that he looked fantastic early in camp and was without a knee brace. That carried over into the opener, as Kelce made the play of the night, catching a pass in the middle of the field and then sprinting past four defensive backs for a 69-yard touchdown from back-up QB Chase Daniel. It’s simply not fair that 6’5,” 260-pound tight end can move that quickly. Kelce might have basically missed his rookie season, but he was at least exposed to Andy Reid’s challenging offense, and he looks like the perfect target for QB Alex Smith in the middle of the field, who loves to throw it inside the numbers. Kelce may no longer be a fantasy sleeper after his electrifying play, but he’s already standing out as a savvy upside TE2 this year in a Chief offense that lacks a viable #2 WR. Heck, they lack a viable second option in the passing game, and Kelce could easily be it. If you invest in him in a deep league, he might actually have an upside backup in the ultra-talented former hoops player Demetrius Harris, who had a 30-yard catch in the game.
Zachary Miller (Chi) – He’s merely a backup, but with starting TE Martellus Bennett suspended for a scuffle in camp this week, Miller made the most of his opportunity, hauling in 6 passes for 68 yards, with TDs from both Jay Cutler (on a great throw) and Jordan Palmer. Miller was an underachiever in Jacksonville, but he’s athletic with some upside, and he might be worth a look during the season if Bennett is out of the mix for whatever reason. Bennett, however, was already back with the team on 8/10.
Team Defense
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) – It was against the Jags with a backup RB and two key WRs missing, but the Buc defense did perform well. Jacksonville went 0-for-7 on third downs in the first half despite not having the services of some key defenders in CBs Alterraun Verner and Mike Jenkins, and S Dashon Goldson.
Downgrades
Recent news and/or performances that have made us less optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Christine Michael (SD) – We love Michael’s talent as much as anyone and have recognized it from Day One, but we also think his ADP of around 115-125 is a bit over the top. For one, Robert Turbin, who is still listed ahead of Michael on the depth chart, got the start in the opener. Michael flashed like he always does, but he cost the team 15 yards on a chop block only to follow that up with a fumble after catching a screen pass. So even though HC Pete Carroll told us at the combine that he’s going to push everyone on the roster for playing time, we don’t think he can be drafted with an expectation that he can help you early in the season, which is why Michael is listed in our overvalued article. We do think he’s more than a sexy stash-and-hope back, and he could be a nice changeup option in this backfield with 5-6 carries a game. But he’s also someone who will be drafted over some productive and more-valuable players. If Marshawn Lynch stays healthy yet again, Michael’s contributions to your fantasy team could be minimal. Lynch, by the way, has been coming on strong in camp the last few days and remains the guy.
Wide Receivers
None of note
Tight Ends
None of note
Holding Steady
These players have been in the news in one way or another, but we think their fantasy stock remains largely unchanged.
Johnny Manziel (QB, Cle) – We’ve always felt that Manziel has a shot to succeed as an NFL QB. His debut against the Lions showed some of the reasons why, but also some of the reasons that there are plenty of Manziel skeptics. Playing behind a second-team offensive line – and, yes, against a second-team defense but also throwing to second-team receivers – Manziel completed 7/11 throws for 63 yards, and paced the Browns with 6 carries for 27 yards. It shows why we like Manziel as a fantasy prospect – he simply makes plays with his feet, and we feel his arm talent is more than adequate, and is actually a bit underrated. But Manziel skeptics will rightly point to the fact that on several of his carries, he eschewed going through his progressions to simply take off and run once the first read wasn’t there. That will work for fantasy for a time, but it with shorten Manziel’s NFL shelf life. He does have some major things he needs to work on, but overall, this debut seemed to go as expected. Brian Hoyer had some balls sail on him early, but he did look good for a QB coming off an ACL and continued to show that he has a great feel for the timing and rhythm of an NFL passing game. Still, Manziel is clearly pushing for this job, so if he continues this early pace he’s set, he’s going to play early. On the downside, TE Jordan Cameron has missed some time and hasn’t noticeably clicked with Manziel in practice, and we do still have the Josh Gordon situation pending.
Robert Griffin III (QB, Was) – RGIII had only four attempts and only 2/9, but he looked comfortable, went through his progressions on a couple of check-downs, and just missed a TD pass to Aldrick Robinson on a pass in which he showed nice touch. They have installed more “quarterback-friendly” plays, quicker reads, which should improve his efficiency and prevent him from taking too many hits. Considering he was without Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson, this was a solid start. There was some talk after the game about mediocre backup Kirk Cousins outplaying Griffin III, which is completely absurd noise.
Carson Palmer (QB, Ari) – The Texans are a mess right now and their defense was horrendous, but this was certainly a good start for Palmer, whowent 5/5 for 84 yards and an TD against the fledgling Texans, including leading a 79-yard TD drive to open the game, capped with a 7-yard scoring pass to Larry Fitzgerald (2/11/1 total). We also saw rookie John Brown continue to flash and TE John Carlson had a TD called back. Second-year GJonathan Cooper (2013 1st round pick) is still a work in progress, but Palmer’s OL should be the strongest it’s been in years, and they should be set to take another step forward in their second season in Bruce Arians’ offense.
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Watch List
Keep an eye on these players and situations. It may be too early to make a call one way or the other on them, but they are situations worth watching.
Josh McCown (QB, TB) – McCown is a guy we’ve liked a cheap backup option with some upside, but we’ve also covered consistently his biggest concern: his OL. And man is that line and McCow off to a bad start. The Buc OL looked downright dreadful and nearly got their veteran quarterback killed in his first action with the Bucs. New HC Lovie Smith and OC Jeff Tedford certainly have some work to do with this O-line and this offense or the fantasy prospects for all the Bucs could take a hit. Facing intense pressure the entire night, McCown finished 2/4 for 20 yards, and he threw a bad pick-six under heat. He was also sacked twice and fumbled twice, losing one of those fumbles. He did hit a 17-yard pass on third and 9, but of course the line was holding. McCown is a professional QB with a lot of weapons and great depth at RB, but this is a new offense, and that line is a concern. Just one more poor effort and we’re going to have to react at least fairly significantly with our projections.
Eli Manning (QB, NYG) – Eli misfired on his only two pass attempts, and he’s still yet to complete a pass that traveled 10+ yards in the air, so we can’t say he’s off to a great start. Saturday night was also the first time that Manning failed to complete a pass in an NFL game. OC Ben McAdoo has kept it really conservative with Manning through two preseason games, as McAdoo either doesn’t want to show much of his new offense or he doesn’t want to expose this revamped offensive line. Those two elements are factors, plus he hasn’t been able to work with #1 pick Odell Beckham, but the fact is the timing is not quite there yet for this new passing game. We know Eli is a fan of it and it’s good for him and his receivers, but we’d expect them to lean heavily on the running game early in the season until the iron out the kinks.
Matt Cassel/Teddy Bridgewater (QBs, Min) – Cassel definitely looked like he had “been there, done that” Friday night, and he led the Vikings to their only touchdown of the night on his only drive of the night, completing 5/6 passes for 62 yards. Cassel got all the major players involved, too.Bridgewater wasn’t very efficient, which is understandable considering it was his first game. However, on his first attempted pass, he sold play-action very well and fired a perfect strike to WR Greg Jennings for 22 yards along the right sideline while on the run, which was an impressive play. Unfortunately, it was called back due to an offensive hold. Cassel obviously holds the edge in experience, but Bridgewater gives them a lot better movement in the pocket and has a much livelier arm, so we don’t think this battle is over just yet.
Chad Henne/Blake Bortles (QBs, Jac) – As much as we’re trying to believe the team’s public intentions of starting Henne for most of the season, we’re already starting to wonder if Bortles will be in the starting lineup relatively soon in 2014. Bortles came into the game in the second quarter and played 22 snaps and the Jaguars gained 144 yards while he was in the game. He finished 7/11 for 117 yards, and 3 of the 4 incompletions came on drops. Bortles looked comfortable in the pocket, looking off defenders, and he showed off his strong arm with many of his throws going in the intermediate and deep areas of the field. He says he’s still working on his footwork, but this was a very good debut. Head coach Gus Bradley did pour cold water on any real competition talks the day after the game, and he did point out a couple of mental mistakes the rookie made and the fact that Tampa Bay only brought extra pressure on Bortles once.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, Sea) – Lynch’s value has been a veritable see-saw this off-season, and the latest dip in that came on Monday, when the Bellevue, Washington police department confirmed it was investigating Lynch’s potential involvement in an alleged assault and personal property damage case. Police also said that the alleged incident does not involve domestic violence or sexual assault, but it is something to keep an eye on for now. It could be nothing, but it’s not like we were super high on Lynch in the first place anyway.
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