8/18/14
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The Stock Watch
Published, 8/18/14
Also see:
· 80 players covered the week of August 11th
· 60 Players covered the week of August 4th
· 58 players covered the week of July 28th
This hasn’t been an amazing preseason so far in terms of exciting, and ascending fantasy forces, but we do have some very intriguing storylines developing. And while we do get the sense that there are many questions we have that won’t be answered until the regular season, there are also plenty of players and situations that are settling into a point to which there is some clarity.
We have extensive analysis, as usual, and make sure you check back throughout the week because we’ll be updating and adding to this report through Thursday.
Upgrades
Recent news and/or performances have made us more optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler (Chi) – Cutler had pristine pockets to throw from all night long, as the starting offensive line dominated in pass protection against an improving Jaguar defensive front (but one that still lacks a pass rush), but for the second straight week Cutler showed off his big arm, chucking a laser through another tight window for a TD to his guy Brandon Marshall. Cutler finished the night an efficient 7/9 for 75 yards and 1 TD, and he’s now compiled 16/22 passes for 160 yards and 2 TDs through two games. With intriguing second-year wideout Marquess Wilson fracturing his clavicle with no timetable to return, the Bears on 8/16 signed veteran Santonio Holmes. Holmes has been a cancer in the recent past with the Jets, but he just turned 30 early this year, so he’s not old, and he’s extremely talented. We’d have to think that he will buy into the program here, since they have such great veteran leadership now. If so, Holmes is a guy who can line up outside or inside, and he should be a pretty deadly #3. It’s actually a little scary to think about Cutler’s potential with five excellent pass-catchers at his disposal.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – If you’ve been reading our content all summer, you probably know that we actually prefer Rodgers to the other studs at QB, and we do for a variety of reasons. We did move Peyton Manning back to the top spot (over Rodgers) due to the Montee Ball injury (it was very close, anyway), but we suspect that Rodgers will go down as a better value than Peyton by either a) putting up comparable numbers or b) even putting up better fantasy numbers due to his running. Rodgers doesn’t have an established TE and they are a little thin at WR, but he certainly still has nice weapons and he’s looked terrific this year, possibly as good as ever. Rodgers played the first two series and was razor sharp, finishing 11/13 for 128 yards and 1 TD in 2014 debut. He led the Packers on two scoring drives, a 12-play, 86-yard, TD drive to start the game. Rodgers also had a touchdown pass to WR Jordy Nelson wiped off the board by a penalty. Rodgers made it look incredibly easy, so after another 1-2 quarters of preseason football, he looks good-to-go.
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Running Backs
Eddie Lacy (GB) – He played only one drive, but he looked really, really good on that drive. Lacy looked fresh and a little quicker, and he showed the incredible physicality we’re already used to. Lacy finished with 5 carries for 25 yards and 2 catches for 22 yards on only that one drive. He’s a young player with a year under his belt running behind a good OL and with probably the best overall QB in the league. We’re not only very high on him; we’re okay with taking him as high as 4th overall.
Fred Jackson (Buf) – Things aren’t going wonderfully in Buffalo this summer, but as we’ve outlined for over a month, things are setting up well for the veteran Jackson to have another surprisingly-productive season. Not only does Jackson still technically start, the team is using C.J. Spiller now in the return game. We’ve outlined how our sources in the building tell us that the coaching staff doesn’t fully trust Spiller in pass-protection, and in just 26 snaps Saturday night, Jackson saw 7 targets (and he caught all 7 of them). With QB EJ Manuel still a work in progress to be kind, and someone who doesn’t seem to be able to quickly process what he’s seeing, we’d imagine that Jackson will once again be very, very active in the passing game. And Jackson should also be the goal line back, since Spiller has a grand total of 10 carries/targets inside the 5 in four years, according to our database.
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Wide Receivers
Dez Bryant (Dal) – Incredibly athletic and strong, Dez look like a monster right now. Bryant turned 3 receptions into 59 yards and scored on a gorgeous 31-yard pass that looked intentionally underthrown from QB Tony Romo. Dez high-pointed the ball, and CB Dominique Franks had absolutely no chance. It’s beginning to look like there’s a good argument to take Dez in front of anyone at WR. The Cowboy defense is going to be bad, so they should throw it a lot, and he looks like he’s at the absolute peak of his game.
Justin Hunter (Ten) – Hunter is an obvious upgrade after he put up 4/111/1 in the second preseason game, but he’s especially interesting because he’s immensely talented – think AJ Green in terms of body type and speed – and he’s now in his second season. Hunter’s hands aren’t great, but they have improved this year, and he showcased a bunch of skills this past weekend, making an almost indefensible play in the endzone for the TD fromJake Locker, showing good awareness on a back-shoulder pass from Zach Mettenberger, and also hauling in a 64-yard pass from the rookie, which was mostly catch-and-run. Clearly, he is more than a JAG (just another guy). Hunter may still be a little hit-or-miss, and veteran Nate Washington is still well in the mix to officially start (they both started in a 3-WR set on Friday night), but Hunter is still an exciting, upside-oriented pick around 115-125 picks into a draft.
Randall Cobb (GB) – He played 24 snaps and had only 3 targets, but he caught all 3 passes for 34 yards, and he scored. He look very good on a 22-yard catch, and it’s crystal clear that he’s going to seriously challenge for 100+ catches if he can play 15-16 games. Cobb is in a contract year, and to his credit he has admitted that he doesn’t yet deserve a lucrative extension. He’s going to get one if he stays healthy in 2014.
Antonio Brown (Pit) – Brown has been arguably the best player in Steelers camp this August, and he carried it over to game action with a 76-yard catch-and-run TD. Brown’s a stud, and he can take a quick hitter to the house at any given time. With the Steelers working in some new wideouts this year with Emmanuel Sanders and Jericho Cotchery gone, Brown will once again be a go-to guy, and we’re incredibly comfortable giving him a full endorsement as a 2nd round pick. In fact, if you get him in the 2nd in a PPR, you should consider yourself lucky.
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Tight Ends
Kyle Rudolph (Min) – We tweeted back in May with a prediction that Rudolph would be the breakout TE of the 2014 season, and so far that absolutely looks to be the case. Rudolph has dropped some weight this year, and he looks better than ever. Combine that fact with the presence of the greatNorv Turner, whose track record with TEs is excellent, and a QB situation that is upgraded no matter who starts, and Rudolph is jumping off the page as an excellent breakout candidate. Rudolph actually dropped a tougher catch in the endzone, which meant that he just missed a TD in two straight preseason games. But then he took a shorter pass from Matt Cassel, 51-yards to the house for the TD. He’s running routes under Turner that should really increase his big-play potential, and he’s moving better than ever. His play and situation this year is so promising that our preference this year is to hold off on drafting a TE until the 70-80 picks in and selecting Rudolph. If you hit on your earlier picks and Rudolph ends up being the great value we think he will be, you could be hard to beat.
Julius Thomas (Den) – We absolutely love Thomas and feel strongly that he we haven’t yet seen the best he has to offer. In the second preseason game, he was roaming the earth with ease, and he caught all 3 of his targets for 35 yards, including an easy 19-yard TD from Peyton Manning. If he’s healthy, Thomas has a legit chance to score 15 TDs this year.
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Placekickers
None of note.
Downgrades
Recent news and/or performances that have made us less optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
EJ Manuel (Buf) – After an encouraging week of practice that prompted some interested observers to wonder aloud if Manuel had turned a corner, we once again saw a player in their third preseason game whose inconsistencies still define him. Stud WR Sammy Watkins also got hurt early in the game, but luckily it looks like he’ll be okay. Manuel completed 17 of this 27 passes for 148 yards, but 7 of his completions were check-downs to RB Fred Jackson, and 4 more were short passes to TE Scott Chandler. He also continues to get passes tipped at the line and he threw a bad INT when he tried to push the ball down the field to Chandler deep down the seam. In three preseason games, Buffalo’s first-team offense has had 10 possessions without a TD (4 FGs, an INT, 2 punts, and three failed fourth down tries). We know he’s a low-end option, but it’s hard to believe that Manuel is poised to take a step forward in his second season. Anyone who does is really hoping for that, as opposed to seeing actual evidence of it. According to our sources, there are people in that building who already believe that Manuel will never become a top-flight starter.
Eli Manning (NYG) – There’s still time for them to get their act together, and the notion that the new system is a good fit for Manning remains true – but this is an ugly start. Manning completely only 1 pass that counted, and for 6 yards. Manning did have two passes dropped by his own receivers, but an INT he threw was called back because of an illegal contact penalty, and another bad throw and sure pick was dropped. Manning was throwing up several passes that he had no chance of completing, and when Manning and the offense finally clicked – a pretty 51-yard deep ball to Victor Cruz – Cruz fumbled, and the Giants were forced to accept another illegal contact penalty instead of the big gain. Everything looks out of sync right now, and we really need to see some improvement next week, perhaps when rookie Odell Beckham gets onto the field. Until then, while this is stilljust the preseason, no one can feel optimistic about this offense right now, especially with the OL still in question. But he was a lower-end backup for fantasy to begin with, and he should still be considered a top-25 fantasy QB.
Running Backs
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Wide Receivers
Victor Cruz (NYG) – It’s one thing to stay patient with Eli Manning as a fantasy pick, since he won’t even cost a top-150 pick. It’s quite another, though, to hang in there with Cruz, whose ADP is around 35. Considering the recent fantasy frustrations owning Cruz (dating back to 2012), it’s hard to justify that high ADP at this point. Yes, they’re not really game-planning, and yes, Cruz did have a 50-yard catch (which he fumbled), but if you check the boxscores you’ll see that Cruz now has 0.0 catches in three preseason games. Cruz did miss the end of the 2013 season with a knee injury, and if he continues to underperform you have to wonder if it’s still a factor. Things will get better here before they get worse (they can’t get any worse), but we’re not entirely comfortable listing him as a player to “target” at his current ADP, so he’ll be removed from our targets list. At this point we’d like to see him slip to around 50 overall to seriously consider him.
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Tight Ends
Tim Wright (TB) – He’s struggling as a receiver and as a blocker right now, and he might be competing with Luke Stocker for a roster spot, so needless to say he’s not on the fantasy radar right now with solid rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the roster.
Placekickers
None of note.
Holding Steady
These players have been in the news in one way or another, but we think their fantasy stock remains largely unchanged.
Tony Romo (QB, Dal) – There have obviously been some concerns about Romo’s recovery from back surgery, especially since he’s now in his 30s. Romo has taken his fair share of hits in his career, and back issues are always something to worry about. So given that, it was really nice to see him out there in the Cowboys’ second preseason game. Romo’s day got off to an inauspicious start when he fumbled on an exchange with DeMarco Murray on their opening drive, and it was returned 26 yards for a TD. But on the Cowboys’ ensuing series, Romo settled down. He ended looking like Romo, completing 4/5 passes for 80 yards and a TD. Of Romo’s 4 completions, 1 went to RB DeMarco Murray on a 21-yard screen. His other 3 went to WR Dez Bryant, who looked like a monster. Romo also just missed a deep connection to #2 WR Terrance Williams. We know the OL will be very good and the defense very bad, so if Romo and his offensive weapons are healthy, Romo’s a lock to put up nice fantasy digits.
Nick Foles (QB, Phi) – After struggling in the preseason opener, Foles was faced with the prospect of playing without starting WRs Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper, and with starters Ifaenyi Momah, Arrelious Benn, plus Brad Smith, none of whom are guaranteed to make the Eagles’ final roster. But Foles looked like himself, and his offensive line performed much better than last week. He completed 8/10 passes for 81 yards and a TD, a 6-yard strike to TE Zach Ertz, who outmuscled former Eagle S Patrick Chung for position. Foles had completions to rookie Jordan Matthews, RB Darren Sproles, and TE Brent Celek prior to the Ertz TD. It was a much better showing overall, and a reminder not to overreact to one preseason game. Foles’ upside would take a big hit if Maclin misses time (they have no speed otherwise), and rookie WR Josh Huff could miss a pretty good chunk of time because of his shoulder injury. But unless they get perilously thin at the position, the scheme should ensure he continues to put up at least serviceable numbers.
Tom Brady (QB, NE) – Brady threw a 77-yard pick-six, but it appeared obvious that TE Steve Maneri (who?) ran the wrong route on the play. Maneri is fourth on the depth chart at best, as the Patriots’ top three TEs (Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui, and D.J. Williams) were all unavailable on Friday night. Otherwise, Brady was very sharp. He finished 8/10 for 81 yards with a TD and a pick, the TD coming on a gorgeous 15-yard back shoulder throw to WR Kenbrell Thompkins. It seems fairly clear to us that Brady’s going to have more success throwing to a receiving corps that should be better than it was in 2013, but he remains a so-so fantasy option if he doesn’t have Gronk at his disposal. It’s certainly expected that he will, and Brady is a cheaper fantasy pick than he was last year, but Gronk is hardly someone we can count on, so we really don’t find Brady particularly appealing.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, Mia) – This wasn’t a stellar showing, but Tannehill was still pretty sharp and efficient while spreading the ball around to various receivers. The Dolphins showed an up-tempo offense, but the team didn’t look as crisp and we’d put that on the shaky protection from a still developing OL. With changes all over and players trying to learn positions, Tannehill was under more pressure than we would like to see and actually took a sack that caused a fumble to start the 2nd quarter. That would be it for Tannehill, who led the team to just a FG in the three series we saw him play. He still managed to go 9/14 for 110 yards.
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Watch List
Keep an eye on these players and situations. It may be too early to make a call one way or the other on them, but they are situations worth watching.
Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) – We’ve seen some signs of a developing player, as Kaepernick had a few drop-backs over the weekend in which he was patient in the pocket and on one play he nicely checked the ball down to rookie RB Carlos Hyde. But the timing seems to be off early on here in the preseason, and Kaepernick hasn’t exactly lit it up. It’s no reason to panic – and the defense does look shakier than usual, which could force them to throw the ball more this year – but it would be nice to see a promising performance from him. We do, of course, still have the big dress rehearsal game coming up this week.
Matt Ryan (QB, Atl) – One of the reasons to get behind Ryan this year is his revamped OL, and while #1 pick Jake Matthews remains, Sam Bakertore the patellar tendon in his right knee and will miss the entire season. Baker has had a rough go of it the last couple of seasons, but they at least had the flexibility to move him to the right side, where he’s probably solid. Now they have no choice, so Ryan’s line has taken a hit. Ryan did get Julio Jones back this weekend, but the overvalue vibes haven’t been great for this passing game. We’re not moving him down in our rankings, but our confidence in Ryan this year has taken a tiny hit.
Josh McCown (QB, TB) – He looked better than last week, at least. McCown had a decent night, going 5/7 for 46 yards, and he finished on a high note, hitting WR Vincent Jackson on a strike to the back of the end zone for a 7-yard TD in what was Jackson’s only catch on 2 targets. Rookie WR Mike Evans, who was named the starter officially on Monday, had 2/52 on 2 targets, but had what would have been a 42-yard TD taken off the board (from Mike Glennon). McCown’s Bucs still do have OL concerns, and he has shown a propensity to hold on to the ball too long, but at least they are seemingly improving as we get deeper into August.
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