Saturday, August 4, 2012

FantasyGuru.com: The Stock Watch (8/3/12)

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The Stock Watch


by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 8/3/12 

With training camps in full swing and our first preseason game coming up this week, we finally have some real news we can use for fantasy, so it’s time to break down the league’s current risers, fallers, and more.
 
I gotta say that I try my best to avoid any “I-told-you-so” commentary, but while it’s still early in camp and the preseason, there’s a ton of stuff that we said in the preseason coming to fruition on the practice fields thus far, which could bode very well for our overall 2012 analysis.
 
Upgrades
 
Quarterbacks
 
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buf) – The Bills started camp and Fitzpatrick wasted no time and started slinging the ball all over the field. Considering he played hurt the second half of the season and that his receiving corps is in pretty good shape right now and has good depth and better speed, I’m already warming back up to Fitz as a really nice backup or #2 in 2-QB leagues. I really hope Marcus Easley can stay on the field because he could be their best overall receiver in terms of tools and talent, and rookie T.J. Graham can fly and has flashed a bit and could be a nice rotational player they send deep from time to time. Considering they love to throw the ball in the red zone and near the goal, it’s not inconceivable to project Fitzpatrick to have a legitimate chance to account for 30 TDs this year. Keep in mind 30 TDs is the new 25 in today’s league.
 
Running Backs
 
Doug Martin (TB) – He’s been the guy, and he’s been described by teammates as “crafty” and someone who “understands the game.” We’re told the team is very high on him (as if that wasn’t already evident), so all the great things we’ve said about him since before the draft are clearly coming to the surface. He’s no longer a value, since he’s climbing into the 3rd round in a 12-team league, but we’re still okay with that because there’s a very good chance that he’s their 1st- and 2nd-down back, their 3rd-down back, and even their goal-line back. This Buc offense is shaping up well, and Martin is young, durable, and versatile.
 
Chris Johnson (Ten) – We’re getting some good feedback on Johnson thus far in camp. He’s practicing well and looks a lot better, so the vibes have been pretty darn good. We’ve been clear all off-season that we’re optimistic with Johnson in 2012, and if the good news continues to come in, we’ll certainly be open to moving him up into the 1st round (top-12 overall). He’s viable that early if you really want a RB; we’re just being somewhat conservative with him for now by placing a few stud QBs and TEs over him because we feel they are safer.  
 
Evan Royster (Was) – While garnering praise from head coach Mike Shanahan, Royster continues to see the bulk of the reps with the 1st-team offense, while Roy Helu has been working more with the second team. Royster and Helu are both good fits for the zone blocking scheme, but they are different kinds of runners, so it’s a hard call to predict how they will be used. But that’s kind of the point: Both will be used, so Helu is currently overvalued and Royster undervalued. Of course, veteran Tim Hightower may still be the favorite to “start” once he’s healthy, if he ever is this year. This is shaping up to be a nightmare backfield situation, but we do like their running game overall this year, and Royster at least is a solid value.
 
Ryan Williams (Ari) – The Cardinals were the first team to report to camp and start practicing, and starter Beanie Wells wasn’t ready to go, so he started on PUP. He’s expected to come off this coming week, but that certainly wasn’t a good sign for Wells. I’m not convinced Williams will be “the guy,” but if his recovery continues to go well, he’s absolutely in the mix to be at worst a changeup and 3rd-down back. And if Wells is out, then Williams (if healthy) will get a chance to show what he can do. Wells is talented, but I think a healthy Williams is a little more gifted, so he’s the guy I’m targeting, not Wells. Again, Williams is hardly a lock, but the best way to put him into perspective is to say that, if he’s 100% he might be a top-10 back in this league based purely on skill set. And if he were 100% and “the guy” for the Cards, he might be a top-10 back.
 
Kevin Smith (RB, Det) – It seems like people are finally starting to catch on to Smith, whose ADP is on the rise. We’ve been all over him for months as your likely Week One starter in Detroit, and he certainly is going to be just that unless he gets hurt. Mikel Leshoure is not only out the first two games, but he’s also already had a hamstring issue in camp, so he’s not exactly looking like a steal in fantasy this year. He’ll be a big factor later in the year if healthy, but they could be slow with him early on, so Smith looks like a nice rental player for early in the season, at worst. He’s healthy and reported to camp in fantastic shape once again.
 
Stevan Ridley (RB, NE) – We absolutely have to tread cautiously with Ridley because we’re still not convinced the Pats won’t bring in another veteran back (it wasn’t a good sign that they brought in Joe Addai in the first place), but right now things are looking up for Ridley, no question. He’s had an impressive training camp thus far, especially when it comes to making quick decisions and hitting the hole, which is definitely what you like to see anywhere, but especially on this team, but we’re certainly not there yet. The preseason will likely tell the tale, but if he’s not fumbling and continues to play well, and if they don’t sign another veteran, Ridley has to be the main guy in this backfield. That may not amount to much, but it’s not like he isn’t talented. He’s definitely more talented than BenJarvus Green-Ellis; that’s for sure.
 
Alex Green (GB) – Green managed to avoid the PUP list to open camp, which was yet another step toward fantasy relevance this year. Our position on Green has been covered throughout the site, but our interest is mainly for dynasty and keeper leagues. For 2012, his ceiling is probably only a viable flex starter, and that’s only if James Starks is hurt or if Green is too good to keep off the field once the season progresses. But it’s so far, so good, for Green. There’s no doubt in my mind, after talking to team insiders, that the Packers would love to see Green step up and command significant snaps in this offense, especially as a potential weapon in the passing game. It’s also worth mentioning that Starks has had a little bit of a sluggish start in camp, which is something to watch.
 
Montario Hardesty (Cle) – He’s been a major buzz kill, but Hardesty looks very good in camp. If he’s finally healthy and ready to show us what he can do, it’s too-little-too-late due to the addition of rookie Trent Richardson, but at least Hardesty looks like he’ll make the team. That’s important because he should be the handcuff for Richardson. You wouldn’t know it from his play and production thus far in his career, but Hardesty is very talented. If he’s finally healthy and gets lucky with a TR injury, we might actually see that on the field.

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