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- Value Over Replacement Analysis - 8/17
Here's a sample of today's 10,000+ word Stock Watch report, which covers all you need to know about the current fantasy landscape.
The Stock Watch
Updated, 8/21/12
It’s been an extremely active and notable 5-7 days in the fantasy marketplace, so let’s get right to it because there’s a lot to cover.
Upgrades
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (Det) – We all know he’s very good, but it’s nice to see a high fantasy pick at this position come out and light it up in midseason form, and that would describe Stafford’s effort in the second preseason game. He finished 12-for-17 for 184 yards, with 2 TD passes, and it’s a good sign for him now wideout Titus Young continues to come on, and how rookie Ryan Broyles actually played, so it looks like Stafford’s receiving corps will be better than ever. That’s worth noting because Stafford is closing in on being an elite player, since his mental game has improved dramatically the last two years. Couple that with his elite throwing skills, and you have something special.
Cam Newton (Car) – This guy just makes our jobs too easy. He does what he needs to do to be great, and he delivers on the field. Based on his showing this past weekend, he’s good to go for 2012, and yeah, Miami was without some key defensive players. We saw Newton for only three series on Friday night, but he turned those into 17 points for the Panthers and 119 yards with a TD on 8-of-11 passing. The only concern with him here is the receiving corps, which isn’t very good after Steve Smith. But it’s definitely better than last year, when Newton was a fantasy beast. I sure don’t want to jinx him, but I’ve yet to see anything close to an injury scare with Newton, too. That’s probably because he’s bigger than most LBs.
Jay Cutler (Chi) – That was a very positive showing for Cutler and the Bears this past weekend. The OL wasn’t terrible, which is probably all Cutler (who didn’t get sacked) needs to have a really good chance to produce. He came out slinging it and completed 7-of-13 passes for 122 yards Saturday night, and he got going on his first drive with three completions to new additions WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, including a 41-yard strike to Marshall down the right sideline (he actually underthrew it a bit, or else it might have been a longer TD). Jeffrey’s catch on the drive was also very encouraging. Cutler has always been willing to stand in the pocket and deliver a strike, and it becomes a lot easier to actually complete those strikes when he has good size at the WR position, which he now has.
Jake Locker (Ten) – In a slightly surprising move given his shaky showing in their second preseason game, Locker was named the team's Week One starting QB. Clearly, the Titans are dying to begin the Locker era because he’s obviously not quite there yet in terms of deserving to win the job right now, although we don’t exactly know how he’s doing in practice and his head coach swears Locker has earned this starting job already. I do love Locker, but this is a player who will leave plays on the field and he could be inconsistent for fantasy. But there’s no question he has pretty big upside, given the strong supporting cast, his strong arm, and his ability to put up numbers with his legs. It’s somewhat risky to roll with him as your #2, but again, we love the upside. So let’s call him a play-to-win backup.
Running Backs
Doug Martin (TB) – Martin didn’t put up big numbers this past weekend, carrying 7 times for 23 yards, but it was once again evident that he looked like the more complete and effective back than veteran LeGarrette Blount. He looked good again and he’s done nothing not to win the job, and Blount has done some things (like getting injured and putting in a mediocre showing) to lose it. We’ve expected Martin to start in Week One all along, and this game only reinforced our opinions.
Darren McFadden (Oak) – McFadden didn’t kill it, but he once again looked explosive with a 22-yard run and a 17-yard catch. McFadden finished with 9 carries for 34 yards, but QB Carson Palmer also overthrew a wide open McFadden down the sideline, which would’ve resulted in a 23-yard touchdown. That’s a reminder of how McFadden is going to be a lot more involved in the passing game this year, as they look to get him in space more and take advantage of his big-play ability. He’s not a great pick for the conservative fantasy player, but with the vibes good, and with McFadden telling our own Adam Caplan earlier this month that this is the first off-season he’s truly done all the work he needs to do to be in the best shape possible, I’m in for 2012. The only problem is the backup/handcuff situation is once again murky. The job is all Mike Goodson’s to lose, but he’s doing everything he can to actually lose it.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson (Det) – It’s a great feeling to see your guy at WR making plays against opposing DBs who literally have no chance to stop him. Due to Johnson’s all-time great physical tools and his ever-growing chemistry with his QB – who is an elite thrower – Johnson is in this realm quite a bit. He certainly was this past weekend, when he ended up in single coverage on a Raven CB, and Stafford put the ball in an absolutely ideal spot slightly behind his receiver. The defender had no chance, and it was a TD for Calvin.
Brandon Marshall (Chi) – Marshall’s looking good. He finished with 2/61 receiving and might have scored a really long TD on the opening pass of the game for the Bears, but QB Jay Cutler underthrew the pass a tad. They also didn’t connect on a pass in the endzone, but the bottom line is this duo already looks to be back. It’s not going to be fantasy nirvana, but it’s going to be really good. In fact, they were talking after the game about how their chemistry still isn’t there. If that’s true, thing things are really looking up for the whole season.
A.J. Green (Cin) – Green a superstar talent, period. He really jumps off the page in terms of his movement and body control, and we’ve been told that he’s been a complete beast in training camp. He’s up 10-15 pounds, which should help him gain more physicality, yet he still moves incredibly well. The only concern with him is whether or not QB Andy Dalton will hold him back a little bit, and while Dalton will likely leave some potential plays on the field (he missed Green for another potential TD this past week), he threw an impressive 50-yard TD strike to Green on which Dalton looked off defenders on the opposite side of the field, and then quickly shifted his focus to Green, who streaked past Asante Samuel in single coverage. Dalton put the ball on the mark in stride, and Green had an easy score. A.J. finished with 2/59/1 receiving, and he made a lot of fantasy owners feel good about his chances to be a true #1 fantasy WR this year.
Tight Ends
None
Place Kicker
None
Downgrades
Quarterbacks
Michael Vick (Phi) – What. The Eagle OL always seems to be a mess in the preseason, and that line may have ruined Kevin Kolb’s career because he’s been incredibly gun shy since the summer of 2010, when the line was a mess. Now their next victim appears to be Vick, who can’t blame the line for the first injury this summer, but he can for the second one, which is a rib injury. Of course, Vick is partly to blame as well. Vick has now been injured twice in the preseason in less than 10 drop-backs, which is pretty surreal. There was reason to be optimistic on Vick for a variety of reasons, but all the positives don’t mean a damn thing if he’s not on the field. We know he’s a risk to miss 1-3 games every year, which goes with the territory, but these first two preseason games have been incredibly disconcerting, to say the least. We’ve moved him down a spot in our QB rankings and more than that overall. He’s obviously still viable and with appealing upside – it’s certainly possible that we’ll all look back at these first two games and laugh – but even with less than 10 drop-backs under Vick’s belt this summer it would be incredibly irresponsible for us to not react to the incredibly bad vibes with Vick. Truly, nothing can ruin a good offseason of analysis better than the pads going on. Again, if you take the plunge with Vick, you have to find very good insurance in the form of a quality backup. If you do that, rolling with Vick can still be a positive move because he’ll likely produce when he’s on the field. But we just can’t count on him at this point.
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson (RB, Min) – It’s great that he’s been on track this month, but he hasn’t been getting hit in practice yet, so he’s not exactly out of the woods. There was talk of him playing in the key third preseason game, but that is not in their plans. In fact, we won’t see him in the preseason. Knowing that, I don’t see how anyone can possibly be comfortable drafting Peterson. I don’t know about you, the reader, by I don’t want to be making a 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th round pick while crossing my fingers. I want to feel good about it, and there’s no way you can feel good about Peterson because he still hasn’t taken a hit. Keep in mind, he’ll likely be limited early in the season, and it’s hard to say for sure that he’ll be, for example, the goal- line back if Toby Gerhart does the heavy lifting and gets them inside the 10 or 5. I’m trying to be as rational and as logical a possible with Peterson and consider all angles, like how he’s one of the best RBs of all time. But no matter how hard I try, I continue to come up with the same conclusion: I’m going to pass on Adrian Peterson in the first three rounds. I can certainly find 36 other players I feel a whole heck of a lot better about than AP.
Wide Receivers
Dez Bryant (WR, Dal) – He continues to flash in the preseason, which is great, but we already knew he was a flash player. There’s been a great opportunity for Bryant this summer to emerge as the go-to guy. He’s had a good summer – until Monday August 20th. That’s when he injured his knee in practice. It’s considered patella tendinitis, which was actually good news, but he might not play again in the preseason. I’ve been told by a doctor that this could easily be a lingering injury, and it could be a chronic problem. Keep in mind he’s been slow to return from injury thus far in his career. It’s always something with this guy – always.
Jon Baldwin (KC) – He’s been beast-like in practice all summer, but he’s been MIA in their games, which is odd. He’s also a guy who could be bumped down the depth chart soon, since Dwayne Bowe is back. So he’s not much more than a very late flyer, yet he is still a very good one given his talent.
Jacoby Ford (Oak) – This guy may be the Ryan Mathews of the WR position in that he teases us with his potential, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. His recent past is littered by issues with his feet, and he left Friday’s preseason game with a sprained ankle/foot and was seen on crutches after the game. A day after the game, it was revealed that is status for the opener may be in doubt, which is obviously a bad sign.
Vincent Brown (SD) – He’s down for at least two months with a broken ankle, which is a real buzz kill because he was looking really, really good this summer. I had predicted, even though he’s not a starter that he would lead them in WR catches this year, and I’m convinced I was right. It’s not happening now, so he’s merely a WW guy late in the season.
Austin Collie (Ind) – I’ve been on Collie for months as a cheap PPR option, and considering his abilities and how they mesh with QB Andrew Luck, how the vibes for the duo have been outstanding this summer, and how Collie quietly managed to play all 16 games last year, that was a good call. Alas, I say it was a good call because Collie has reportedly suffered another concussion on 8/19. He says he feels okay and is only day-to-day, but this is a terrible sign. It’s probably another case of health issues destroying another good sleeper because I don’t see how he’s draftable now.
Miles Austin (Dal) – The latest now on Austin’s hamstring is that he might not be ready for the regular season opener, which isn’t exactly a great sign. He’s obviously very advanced here in terms of the system and chemistry with QB Tony Romo, but his preseason hammy issue, and the seriousness of it is a pretty major red flag. Again, there’s always the chance that they are being very conservative with it, but he’s still missing valuable practice time, even though there’s a reason they would be very conservative (bad history).
Jordan Shipley (TB) – Shipley’s coming off a torn ACL and MCL, and the sad fact for him was that he wasn’t showing much juice coming off the line of scrimmage and was playing tentatively, so he was released by the Bengals. He was quickly snapped up by the Bucs, but he’s still off the radar.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten (Dal) – He’s out for the rest of the preseason with a lacerated spleen, and his availability for the season opener is in serious question, which is obviously a problem. While Witten is still only 30 years old, he does have a lot of tread on his tires, and this is his 10th season. The injury at least shouldn’t be an issue once he’s recovered, but you do worry about his margin for error, since he’s slowing down a bit.
Place Kickers
None
Holding Steady
Peyton Manning (QB, Den) – So far, I’d say things are going exactly as I expected. Peyton is, well, Peyton, which means he’ll be okay, but it’s going to take some time for him to iron out the kinks, which is my concern for fantasy early in the season. If you get taxed heavily for INTs, that’s a legit concern with Manning. His INTs haven’t really been entirely his fault, but there will be some growing pains here. But the good news is those with realistic expectations have to be pleased with everything Manning is showing thus far, as he not only took a deep shot in this game, he actually took a shot from a defender, and he got up no problem. I have to say, despite my concerns for Manning early in the season, and given the issues I’m having now with Michael Vick, Tony Romo, and Philip Rivers, Manning is looking better and better and better for 2012.
Matt Ryan (QB, Atl) – On film it looks like Ryan has sped up his game a little, which is a great sign because his temp could use some improvement. Ryan in their second preseason game went 18-for21 for 174 yards and a TD, solidifying himself as the QB to target once the perceived “elite” fantasy passers are off the board. The one positive no one is talking about is the OL has been solid thus far. Yeah, it’s just preseason, but that helps because it was a problem last year.
We’ll See
Matt Flynn (QB, Sea) – He’s been fine, and he’s likely the starter here, but it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in him. That’s because the team continues to be very enamored with rookie Russell Wilson, who will even start their third preseason game. You never know what their approach is, but the third game is usually the dress rehearsal for the season, so again it’s hard to feel great about Flynn, whose margin for error may be small.
Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, Jac) – I’m not going to offer much insight here other than to say his holdout is now 25 days old and that the new Jag owner continues to say that he’s not losing a wink of sleep over MJD’s situation. We’ve obviously reached a critical point here with MJD, since the opener is less than three weeks away, and it’s now questionable if he’ll be ready to rock & roll if he reports soon. But first thing’s first: He has to actually report. We know how this is going to end – he’s going to play for the Jaguars this year – but it’s getting a little scary now, even though I have confidence that MJD will be in shape when he reports. Obviously, if you draft him, you must get backup Rashad Jennings. You know how these business dealings work: nothing happens unless one of more party is up against a deadline. We’re up against that, so MJD could report soon.
Ryan Mathews (RB, SD) – Mathews said he has no doubts that he'll be ready to play Week One. His timetable was initially 4-6 weeks, but he's already out of his sling and doing light workouts. The Chargers still consider Mathews capable of handling a heavy workload, despite his slew of durability issues, according to the Union-Tribune. Uh, we’ll see, but things could be looking worse. One thing is pretty clear to me, and it’s worth pointing out: the Charger offense might be hosed without him.
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