Tuesday, August 14, 2012

FantasyGuru.com: The Stock Watch (8/14/12)

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The Stock Watch


by John Hansen, Publisher

Updated, 8/14/12

We now have a full week or preseason action to sink our teeth into, and unlike previous years, we’re seeing a little more action in preseason games from key starters, possibly due to the new practice limitations from the new CBA.
 
Things can change quickly, and there are certainly several cloudy situations, but the fantasy marketplace as a whole is coming into focus rather quickly.
 
Here’s what’s going on…

Upgrades
 
Quarterbacks
 
Andrew Luck (Ind) – Obviously, he was extremely impressive in the preseason opener. Although it’s “just the preseason,” the fact is Luck has elite mental abilities and underrated athletic tools, so he certainly has a chance to play very well all season. We’ll have to temper our enthusiasm because the supporting cast overall is shaky, but he could easily finish as a top-15 fantasy QB this year, and we’ve had him in our top-20 all along. The tricky element here is his rushing production. He could certainly score 3-4 TDs on the ground, but those are hard to predict, as is rushing yardage. What we’ve done for good measure is bump up his rushing yardage, which has moved him up one spot in our rankings. I just don’t see him flopping, so the question is will he deliver on his apparent upside as a later draft pick? I’m inclined to say yes.
 
Matt Ryan (Atl) – I still think he has some passing limitations, and while those two stud wideouts are great, there’s not a ton to work with here otherwise. I’m nitpicking at this point, though, since Ryan is obviously very capable, and the Falcons are obviously looking to become more assertive and aggressive with their passing game. We moved Ryan up one spot in our QB rankings, but that was more about Philip Rivers’ issues (see below) than Ryan. Still, again, Ryan is the definition of rock-solid right now.
 
Ryan Tannehill (Mia) – Given his lofty draft status, familiarity with the system, impressive physical tools, and veteran David Garrard’s injury, it’s pretty safe to say Tannehill is going to start a lot of games for the Dolphins this year. Given his performance and comfort level in his NFL debut, it’s also safe to say he may emerge from training camp at the starter. I doubt he’ll do particularly well, but as we saw with Jake Locker last year, there can be a disconnect between NFL readiness/success and fantasy production. Tannehill may not be as physically gifted as Locker, but he’s in that ballpark, so the real problem for him is the supporting cast. It’s not very good at receiver, but at least they have numbers in terms of skill players, so they may eventually find a successful formula. Bottom line, he’s on the radar already, which bodes well for his keeper and dynasty value, at worst.
 
Jake Locker (Ten) – He certainly wasn’t brilliant, and he had a lot of time to throw against a vanilla defense, but Locker was certainly better than veteran Matt Hasselbeck, so he’s closed the gap on Hasselbeck, even according to head coach Mike Munchak. At times he looked very comfortable, but his accuracy is still a bit scattershot, so he’s a guy who will definitely leave plays on the field. The good news is that he seemed to start something up with WR Kendall Wright, which is something we’ll be watching closely because both young players will eventually have large roles.
 
John Skelton (Ari) – ESPN’s reporting this morning (8/14) that the starting job is essentially Skelton’s to lose now, which is what we figured when we added him to the list of players to target a couple of weeks ago. He’s rough around the edges and probably won’t have much job security all year, but there’s definitely upside to be had here. He averaged a very healthy 19 fantasy PPG in 2011, keep in mind.
 
Running Backs
 
Darren McFadden (Oak) – I started this week’s Stock Watch on Saturday, and McFadden was the featured guy on the homepage for the article. That’s because our guy Adam Caplan was at Raider training camp this week, and he told us McFadden looks very good and there are currently zero concerns with his problematic foot injury from last year. Caplan spoke with McFadden about the switch back to a zone scheme, and McFadden told him that he’s very comfortable in that scheme, one he ran in college. And then I watched him in the preseason opener, and wow did he look great. We all know he’s an injury risk, and I’m trying my best to consider that when ranking him. But I have to say: I’m in. I don’t think he’s nearly as bad as a guy like Ryan Mathews, who seems to need a doctor’s consultation after every carry. McFadden’s durability is certainly a question, but he’s also simply had some bad luck. If you’re a cautious fantasy player, avoid him unless he falls into the 2nd round. But if you’re aggressive and like to swing for the fences, get him. If he plays all 16 games, he could be the #1 RB in fantasy this year. That’s right I said it.
 
DeMarco Murray (Dal) – Not only is he healthy, but he’s also shown off speed, power, and determination to go along with a mean streak. He’s been ripping it up, and with talk of his role growing considerably in the passing game, things are looking very good for Murray. It’s just a question of avoiding injuries, which remains a pretty big question. Actually, there is another question with Murray: the OL. They have some serious issues inside, but Murray at least can offset any concerns running the ball with work in the passing game.
 
Jamaal Charles (KC) – So far, all signs point to a complete recovery for Charles, so things are looking very positive. He played in the preseason opener and showed off the juice that made him a very high pick in 2011. He’s not out of the woods and set as a top-15 pick just yet, but we have to acknowledge how he’s going to be about a full year removed from the injury come Week One. He had a few touches in which he definitely looked like the fastest guy on the field, and he took some hits and showed the knee is strong.
 
Wide Receivers
 
Julio Jones (Atl) – We’ve certainly been fully on board with the Jones hype movement this summer, but without seeing at least one game, it was tough for us to rank Jones over veteran Roddy White, who has clearly been QB Matt Ryan’s “blanky” over the years. But we’ve also said we’re not ruling out that move. And while it’s only one preseason game, we’re making the move. The Falcons have a ton invested in Jones, and the second-year pro is clearly doing everything it takes to prove their investment is a wise one. Since he’s obviously progressed extremely well and will be featured, and since he has the tools to dominate, we’re making the move. We feel White will still catch more passes, so he’s higher in PPR, but Jones does things White can’t really do at this point, and the team will do everything it can to take advantage of those things, so Jones is going to make more big plays.
 
Pierre Garcon (Was) – We haven’t given him a ton of love, and we’re trying not to go overboard on one preseason game and a nice TD, but the fact is we’ve heard good things about Garcon this summer. He’s clearly the top wideout and playmaker here, and he’s been moving extremely well for them in practice. He’s playing with a rookie QB on a new team, so we can’t expect a ton, but they did bring him in for a reason: He’s the type of receiver who can take advantage of QB Robert Griffin III’s skill set, so they will take deep shots to him quite often. Garcon looks like a really nice #3 WR, with some upside from that spot.
 
Austin Collie (Ind) – I don’t really like how he’s been playing on the outside in camp, but that’s likely due to Donnie Avery’s injury issue. Collie may have to play more outside this year because no one else can be relied on, and that is a problem for me because he’s a slot guy all the way. But I’ve been on Collie as a great target later in drafts all year, and we’re already seeing my reasoning materialize on the field. He’s developed a great rapport with QB Andrew Luck, and he’s already scored a TD from Luck on a really nice play and route. This Collie-Luck off-season call was pretty obvious to me; it’s just a question of staying on the field for Luck.
 
Vincent Brown (SD) – He’s received poor reviews for his camp so far, and he’s really only a backup to the starters on the outside. But my sense is that it’s only a matter of time until Brown is a major factor in this offense. In fact, I’m going to predict that he leads them in WR catches, since Malcom Floyd is a big injury risk and Robert Meachem is a suspect player in 2012. Brown came up with a big game in the opener, with 4 catches for 81 yards, and 1 TD with the Charger 2nd-team unit. He scored on a 20-yard deep post, and he caught a jump ball for 36 yards from QB Jarrett Lee. To me he clearly looks like a player who is emerging. I can’t say he commands or demands more targets just yet, but he’s emerging.
Tight Ends
 
Antonio Gates (SD) – Again, he’s back. Not only did he score in the opener, but he also continues to amaze with this movement in camp, showing no signs of having any issues with his problematic foot. He could actually be one of the best values in all of fantasy this year, since he could certainly hang with the two big boys in terms of production.
 
Marcellus Bennett (NYG) – Despite the fact that he’s been a complete non-factor the last few years, even if expectations are low based on a backup role in Dallas, we’ve given Bennett some love based on two things. For one, he has the physical tools to be not only a viable featured receiver, but possibly a very good one. Most important, this is a fantastic situation, thanks to the QB and TE coach Mike Pope, who may be the best in the business. This is a pretty complicated offense with a lot of read-and-react elements, so Bennett is no lock, but there’s definitely significant upside. He’s already scored in the preseason, so he’s off to a good start.
 
Scott Chandler (Buf) – He may have been the most impressive of anyone in the starting unit for the Bills in their disappointing opener. He had 2/32 on 3 targets, including a great catch in traffic that resulted in a 26-yard pickup. While known to fantasy players as merely a red-zone threat, Chandler certainly has the size and athleticism to be a target anywhere on the field, and he has flashed a bit this summer as someone who is continuing to progress and improve as he enters his second season as the guy.
 
Place Kicker
 
Nate Kaeding (SD) – He already looked like the front-runner for kicker job, as veteran Nick Novak didn’t do himself any favors by missing a chip shot 35-yard field goal off the left upright in the preseason opener. This isn’t a shock, but Kaeding’s value has been unstable this year due to the presence of Novak.
 
Alex Henery (Phi) – It looks like the Eagles have something here in Henery, who kicked a 51-year yard game-winning FG that would have been good from 56. This is a good offense that has produced excellent PK totals, so Henery is looking like a really nice target this year late.
 
Downgrades
 
Quarterbacks
 
Philip Rivers (SD) – On 8/10 we moved him below Matt Ryan, and it wasn’t exactly because of Ryan. The Ryan Mathews injury is a large concern to me as it relates to Rivers. This is not a great OL, and he’s not a mobile QB or a guy you want to see dropping back 40+ times every week. It’s also a downfield-passing attack that is predicated on an effective power-running game, and it’s questionable if they will have one. TE Antonio Gates is looking good, which is great news for Rivers, but the rest of the receiving corps is shaky. Rivers’ numbers should still be very good, but there is legitimate concern here due to Mathews, so there’s no way anyone can feel great about him. 
 
Tony Romo (QB, Dal) – It’s still early, but the vibes have not been good for Dallas and Romo. The OL is a question, mainly inside, so you have to worry about his protection. His top two wideouts have also been dealing with hamstring injuries this week, which is disconcerting to say the least. Unless someone like undersized UFA Cole Beasley, who has had a very good camp, steps up, Romo’s receiving corps is very thin right now, and that is a legit concern. We’ve made the move to drop him below Matt Ryan already because of these concerns.
 
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Running Backs
 
Ryan Mathews (SD) – Yes, we’ve been involved in the “hype” for Mathews, but remember the “hype” is directly tied to his ability to stay on the field. The “hype” we’ve participated in is all about his potential if he can actually play. Everyone knows he’s an injury risk, but this is absolutely out of control. While he’s expected to miss “only” 5-6 weeks, who’s to say he’ll stay healthy going forward from that injury? Not me, especially since shoulder injuries are easily aggravated. As we said a lot already this year, at the first sign of injury troubles, we’re heading for the hills, and we’re on our way. I’m now wondering aloud if Mathews has the DNA to play NFL football and stay on the field. There have been hundreds of incredibly talented players who haven’t done a damn thing in the NFL because they simply don’t have it in them physically. It’s time to worry if Mathews will be one of those guys. The hope is that he turns a corner at some point, but he’s obviously not there yet.   
 
Roy Helu (Was) – Again, I like Helu and by season’s end he’ll likely have decent numbers. But I hate everything else about him. The latest is he’s dealing with a little Achilles injury, and Mike Shanahan is talking up rookie Alfred Morris, who does look intriguing to me. And Evan Royster is still the #1 back in camp. And Tim Hightower is still possibly the starter when healthy. And Shanahan’s eyes are still beady and he still looks like an ax- murderer at times.
 
James Starks (GB) – Starks’ struggles from camp carried over to preseason action, as he dropped a pass and had a fumble on the opening drive at his own 25-yard line. And then free agent RB Cedric Benson and the Packers came to a deal, according to ESPN. Benson at 29 is a durable, chain-mover that can help the potent Packer passing offense. Benson's signing is a clear sign that Green Bay is unhappy with Starks, who has struggled in camp so far, and who fumbled in the preseason opener.
 
Ronnie Hillman (Den) – Not only did Hillman miss the preseason opener, as he continues to nurse a hamstring injury, veteran Knowshon Moreno actually played and looked okay, so Hillman’s value, at least for the first half of the season, continues to suffer. He’s very talented and clearly their most dynamic back, but that’s not going to mean much for this rookie if he’s not up-to-speed and is a liability. As we’ve covered extensively, the presence of the veteran Moreno is a serious roadblock for Hillman. The good news is, since Moreno is coming off an ACL and doesn’t play special teams, it’s not a 100% lock he makes the team. If he doesn’t, then Hillman is back in business.
 
Wide Receivers
 
Miles Austin (Dal) – The Cowboys are being cautious, but given his issues with hamstrings last year, this year’s setback in training camp is disconcerting, to say the least. Austin was looking like a very savvy pick this year, given his complete game and Dez Bryant’s issues, but this injury concern adds some uncertainty, for sure.
 
Kenny Britt (Ten) – He continues to make headlines for all the wrong reasons. Britt was fined nearly $10,000 for missing a mandatory appointment with a team trainer, a piece of news that likely would have gone unnoticed – if Britt didn't post a photo of the fine to Instagram, complaining about the penalty. It's probably a minor issue overall, but it's an issue nonetheless, and they're piling up for Britt, who still has injuries and league disciplinary woes to worry about. What can I say other than the following: Britt Happens.
 
Chad Johnson (Mia) – I said on the radio last week that Johnson has officially lost his mind, and his arrest over the weekend hardly disputes that notion. The issue resulted in his dismissal from the team, and he’s firmly off the grid for fantasy, even if he does latch on with any other team. For the rest of his career, he’ll be a guy who could get you 1 catch for 6 yards at any given point, and likely more often than most.
 
Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle) – He suffered a concussion early in Friday's game. He's had concussion issues in the past, so an NFL career may not be happening for him. The Browns now have some alternative, so in terms of fantasy drafts, there’s nothing to see here.
 
Adrian Arrington (NO) – He’s expected to need surgery on his knee, according to the New Orleans Times Picayune. Arrington will meet with Dr. James Andrews to determine the extent of the surgery, but this is bad news for a guy who was on the bubble heading into camp, due mainly to the emergence of second-year wideout Joe Morgan.
 
Tight Ends
 
Ed Dickson (Bal) – Dixon has been a disappointment thus far, and his positive start to training camp has been offset by his recent shoulder injury. That injury could keep him out “a few weeks,” according to head coach John Harbaugh.
 
Zach Miller (Sea) – He suffered his fourth concussion in two years this past weekend, which is terrible news for his chances of making an impact here. They also have veteran Kellen Winslow in the mix, of course. For a guy who showed so much promise early in his career in Oakland, Miller’s been a disaster now for two years.
 
Place Kickers
None
 
Holding Steady

We’ll See
 
Michael Vick (QB, Phi) – We’ve been pushing him as a potential impact player and a guy who has a legitimate chance to finish with PPG totals in the upper 20s, which is very high, but we all know he’s an injury risk. So at the very least, his injury scare in the opener was a dramatic reminder of that. He’s not a pick for everyone, but the good news is that this scare may lower his ADP a tad, which could make him more palatable. Obviously, since we can’t expect much from (currently injured) backup Mike Kafka, if you take the plunge, you have to have a strong contingency plan. Since those who draft him are clearly aggressive players who play to win, perhaps the best choices are Robert Griffin III, Jake Locker, and John Skelton, who will be available at various stages of a draft. If possible, in larger leagues, you may even want to get three QBs, since guys like Locker and Skelton can’t be 100% relied on early in the season. Alternatively, you can get a steady veteran like Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman, or Carson Palmer. This was a scare, and it’s disconcerting, but the fact remains there are still plenty of reasons to get behind Vick and give him a shot – especially if you want to play to win. His downside can be offset if you play things smartly by backing him up with a viable starter. Remember, it’s all about impact players.
 
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pit) – Big Ben, who was 7-for-8 for 49 yards in the opener, made a few wizardly third-down plays on the opening drive, but was still sacked twice and hit even more often behind a young offensive line that’s still learning Todd Haley’s new offense. Rookie LT Mike Adams, in particular, struggled with a speed rush from DE Philip Hunt before leaving with a minor knee injury. It’s great that they’ve shored up the line with two rookie high picks, but that doesn’t mean we’ll see the benefits right away, so Big Ben could continue to get banged around quite a bit.
 
Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, Jac) – I know a lot of people are concerned, and that’s fair. A RB + a holdout is never a good thing. But here’s what we know: Veteran holdouts always end eventually, and MJD has really never let us down. He did the tail end of 2010, but that was only after playing most of the season, as he told me last year, on “one leg.” That’s why we’re keeping him high for now. It’s worth noting that there are concerns now about guys like Ryan Mathews (serious ones) and Trent Richardson, yet we know MJD has the DNA required to play NFL football at a high level while avoiding injury. The offense is off to a good start in the preseason, so while backup Rashad Jennings will spell him here and there to keep him fresh, MJD’s supporting cast is going to be a lot better than last year, which is a positive.
 
Trent Richardson (RB, Cle) – We’re all about avoiding risk very early in fantasy drafts, yet we’re also all about targeting elite talents with expansive roles – so the injured Brown rookie is presenting quite the fantasy football conundrum. With Richardson getting the “clean-up” procedure for the knee, we’re looking at 1-4 weeks until he’s back to full speed, so his availability is in question for Week One. And since he’s the franchise back, they will likely err on the side of caution. But that’s a good thing because, when he returns, we can probably assume with relative confidence that he’s good-to-go. As for his fantasy value, this does place him off the grid for the first round in a 10- or 12-team league, but that’s not a tragedy because his average draft position was 13, anyway. There’s no question his issue creates some downside to drafting him, but the upside is still there. Considering the WR position is very deep this year, that QB is also pretty deep, and that there are ample high-upside TEs who will be available later in drafts, we’re not dropping Richardson too far down my rankings. We do need to find a comfort level with Richardson, and right now that’s about a #9 ranking at RB and about 20-22 overall. If there’s a silver lining with all of this it’s that a viable handcuff is emerging in Brown camp in Montario Hardesty, who clearly looks like the back the team moved up into the 2nd round to get in 2010. He’s also a major injury risk, but if healthy, we firmly believe he can produce, so he’s a must-have for Richardson owners.
 
Doug Martin (RB, TB) – For weeks I’ve been saying that everyone (including us) is handing Martin the starting gig but that he actually still has to earn it, and we’re kind of seeing that play out. Martin’s been very good, but he still has to win the job. Making matters potentially difficult is Leg Blount, who is clearly motivated by the addition of the #1 pick. The veteran Blount got the start in the opener. We saw just one series, but he made it count with 30 yards and a 1-yard TD on 7 carries plus a rare reception on his only pass target. Martin would enter soon after and had 21 yards and a 2-yard TD in addition to a catch for 7 yards. While they didn’t have many opportunities to run in anything but short-yardage situations, it was a strong start for both players. Competition is great for coaches and teams, so I get it. But at the end of the day, there is still a reason they drafted Martin: He’s better. We certainly could see a little bit of a timeshare early, so there is some risk to Martin. But it may take only one fumble from Blount to make the decision to roll with Martin easy. The next few weeks will give us more information, but the bottom line is that Martin hasn’t done anything not to win the job.
 
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