Monday, August 27, 2012

FantasyGuru.com: The Stock Watch (8/27/12)


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August 27, 2012

We're still going crazy over here and updating content by the hour to keep readers on top of things and here's another check-in along with a sample of today's massive Stock Watch report included below. Also, here are a couple of items to cover/remind you about:

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The Stock Watch


by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 8/27/12 

Previous Editions: 8/20 I 8/14 I 8/3
 
We’ve seen a few teams rest players this past weekend, and there are also several guys who have essentially already made their points in the preseason, so there’s not much else to say until the regular season starts.
 
Obviously, I’m going to continue to track the league’s risers, fallers, and more, but we didn’t see a ton of movement after this weekend.
 
Upgrades
 
Quarterbacks
 
Peyton Manning (Den) – Manning played a lot less than anyone expected, but that’s a good sign. After three successful drives, the Bronco coaches saw enough, and they got his ass out of there. I’ve been warming up to Manning lately simply because of the issues the other players in his realm are dealing with, and now I’m optimistic after seeing some solid play this summer. There will be growing pains, but Manning should be decent at worst early, and he certainly has the potential to settle in as a guy who gets you about 20-22 points most weeks.
 
Jake Locker (Ten) – Not to be a broken record, but it’s still very clear that Locker is very much still a work in progress. He still has several bad habits and mechanical flaws, and he isn’t exactly looking like a player who is getting a clear picture out there. Yet, he’s their guy, and he will definitely make wow plays, as he did Thursday night going 11-for-20 for 134 yards and 2 TDs. I’ve loved Locker all along, but I am struggling with going totally nuts with him and ranking him like 13th at QB, which I want to do, since he does still have issues. But there’s absolutely no question he’s a great backup option and one loaded with upside. He’s a great option if you have a stud starter, and he’s a great option if you have a lower-end guy, since Locker then could possibly emerge as your starter.
 
Joe Flacco (Bal) – Things could unravel here if there are some injuries at receiver, since they don’t have a large margin for error there, but Flacco has definitely displayed a little bit of an edge this summer, and he does seem energized with the no-huddle and motivated in a healthy way in his contract year. He was pretty stellar in their dress rehearsal game, completing 27-of-36 passes for 266 yards and 2 TD. I don’t love him as a backup, but he certainly has a chance this year to have his best fantasy season. 
 
Running Backs
 
Doug Martin (TB) – Martin hasn’t officially been named the starting RB for the Bucs, but there’s no reason to believe he’s not. While LeGarrette Blount flopped his way to 22 yards on 7 carries, Martin was extremely impressive in the third preseason game. He finished with 13 carries for 53 yards and a TD, including a very nice 19-yard run on which he broke multiple tackles. His TD run was from 1 yard, great news that he’s getting the short goal-line work ahead of the bigger Blount, who has a reputation for dancing behind the line and fumbling, each a big-time no-no at the goal. Martin has totally been “as advertised,” and we’ve advertised him as a damn good back all year. It’s nice to see him actually prove that this summer.
 
Jamaal Charles (KC) – He’s made it through the preseason with zero issues, and he has looked very good. I haven’t studied every single preseason touch this summer, but I’ve seen most of them, and I think he looks like the old Charles. He could continue to be a bit of a pain in the rear with fewer TDs, but he could certainly re-emerge as something very close to the deadly force he was in 2010. I’d guess that he’s about 95% back.
 
Stevan Ridley (NE) – He emerged once again this past weekend as their clear main ball carrier. He has issues in pass protection and has to continue to earn playing time, but Ridley’s stock has been stabilized, and he is certainly worth drafting as a nice #3. The only problem with him is that, unless he’s able to get a lot of goal-line work, he doesn’t have much upside, and there is some downside if he fumbles, makes mistakes, etc. But he’s the guy now with Shane Vereen likely an active complement and 3rd-down back.
 

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Wide Receivers
 
Eric Decker (Den) – I’ve been enamored with Decker all off-season, and now it’s crystal clear that he’s on the verge of a brilliant season with Peyton Manning looking for him to be his go-to guy. Decker may need to find the endzone a ton if he’s to have an incredible season, but the thing is he absolutely could shock with 10-12 TDs or even more, given his size and effectiveness in the red zone/endzone. He runs great route in the red zone, so Manning will be looking for him steadily inside the 20. Obviously, he scored 2 TDs in the key third preseason game from Manning, so he’s looking really strong right now. You should really circle his name on your cheat sheet and try to get him around the 6th round of a 10 or 12-team league. In savvier leagues, you should probably bump that up to the 5th.
 
Brandon Marshall (Chi) – While his QB and offense overall had a shaky showing in the key third preseason game, Marshall is looking better and better. Marshall showed a glimpse of a potential fruitful relationship for fantasy owners, with QB Jay Cutler. Cutler found Marshall for a 21-yard TD, but he also targeted the man we used to call “Godzilla” 10 times, which is probably a preview of things to come. He seems stabilized, and now back with Cutler, energized.
 
Antonio Brown (Pit) – Well, he can score TDs; that we know. That’s 3 TDs in two weeks for Brown, and if the cat wasn’t already out of the bag completely going into this one, it’s out now, which kind of stinks. Mike Wallace is going to play Week One, but again I view that as a positive for Brown, especially for his PPR value. Wallace is primarily their deep threat, and with him on the field, Brown is going to clean up underneath and gain a ton of yards after the catch. This is guy is great.
 
Vincent Jackson (TB) – I wasn’t worried about Jackson’s quiet preseason because we’ve been told that he’s really bogarted a ton of targets from Josh Freeman in practice all year and was clearly the foundation of the passing game, and we saw that on a scoring drive with catches of 25, 14, and 10 yards to set up a TD. I feel fine with Jackson, but I’m not expecting a huge stat bonanza because this team will look to run the ball a lot. But Jackson’s looking fine right about now.
 
Torrey Smith (Bal) – We haven’t had him as a sleeper, value, player to target, etc. but it appears as if we should have him on the radar as a guy to get. He was still raw last year, and his hands were suspect. I’m not entirely convinced he’s turned a corner in both areas, but it does seem like he has. It’s revealing how he was so active in their dress rehearsal game (11 targets), and he hauled in 8/103 in the game. His intermediate game has improved, and he’s building a nice chemistry with QB Joe Flacco, who also looks good this year, so a breakout season for Smith seems possible. I wouldn’t yet call him a complete receiver, but he’s heading in that direction.
 
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Tight Ends
 
Jimmy Graham (NO) – Not that Graham wasn’t already an obvious pick to begin with, but his back does not appear to be an issue at all, as he looked quite beast-like over the weekend. He had just 3 receptions, but for a team-best 48 yards and a TD. Graham split and boxed out two defenders for an 8-yard TD catch in the second quarter, and he looked good doing it.
 
Aaron Hernandez (NE) – We keep hearing these reports that Hernandez is going to be Tom Brady’s top target this year. I think it’s a little odd, but not totally unreasonable, and they did just lock him up to a new contract, so Hernandez is looking a little more appealing these days.
 
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Place Kicker
 
Justin Tucker (Bal) – The undrafted rookie was the cheaper option over veteran Billy Cundiff, who got cut. So Tucker is the guy, although it would be wise to wait and see how he does before getting him on your team.
 
Nick Folk (NYJ) – All indications are that he did beat Josh Brown to earn the chance to kick for one of the NFL's worst offenses. Of course, they may not score many points here, and his hold on the job may be slight precarious.
 
Justin Medlock (Car) – The journeyman will get the first crack at the Panther kicking job, due to the release of veteran Olindo Mare. Panthers could be in mix for released veteran still.
 
Graham Gano (Was) – As we were told weeks ago, he was the favorite for the job, and he won the battle over Neil Rackers due to his consistency and longer kickoffs.
 
Shayne Graham (Hou) – The veteran Graham won the job by default after 5th-round pick Randy Bullock tore his groin and was placed on the IR.
 
Downgrades
 
Quarterbacks
 
Matt Flynn (Sea) – He missed the pivotal third game with an elbow injury, and all rookie Russell Wilson did was log in yet another stellar performance. Wilson’s ball placement has generally been excellent, and he’s shown very good poise and mobility. He’s going to be the Week One starter, so Flynn’s out of luck for now. We’re told Wilson will be given a legit chance to keep the job, say 4-5 games. If then he’s struggling, then they could certainly go back to Flynn.
 
Sam Bradford (Stl) – This poor guy can’t get a break. The Rams were coming off an impressive performance in their second preseason game, but that was soon forgotten after Saturday’s performance, which Bradford called the worst of the preseason. Bradford and the first-team offense mustered just 6 points in the first half (five series), as the third-year QB struggled to get in tune with his receiving corps. It didn’t help that Bradford was heavily pressured for most of the night with little time to throw, as his OL continues to be undermanned and underwhelming. Bradford ended up with just 6 completions on 17 attempts for 64 yards without a TD, and he was sacked twice. That’s hardly the stuff of fantasy legend, so it looks like there will be struggles here, at least early in the season.
 
Carson Palmer (Oak) – While I did rubber stamp his inclusion in our players to target article, I actually did so a couple of months ago because his ADP was about 160. It’s crept up, as one would expect, and now I’m not so sure about his being included. A 12th or 13th round pick certainly isn’t bad at all for someone with solid potential, but at this point, I’m not sure which way Palmer will go this year, and that’s a problem. I can see him doing well, but I can also see him struggling. He hasn’t protected the ball well at all, and it seems as if his mind thinks he can do things his body simply cannot this year. It’s great that he has a wideout in Rod Streater who is coming on like gangbusters, but he’s missed an entire preseason with Denarius Moore, and Jacoby Ford is hurt again. So I’m struggling with Palmer, and I’ve moved him down a couple of spots.
 
Brandon Weeden (Cle) – I’m not going to let his shaky performance totally ruin my high opinion of Greg Little because that opinion is formed in large part to Little’s value in a draft (he’s far from perfect but he’s the guy and he’s a cheap option). But Weeden’s been really shaky. He’s been fumbling, and he hasn’t handled pressure well at all. He can still sling it a bit, and he will get his stud RB back soon, but there is some concern here with Weeden. When you compare his summer to a guy like Russell Wilson, there really is no comparison.
 
Running Backs
 
Evan Royster (Was) – He was running more so with the starters than Roy Helu early in camp, so things were looking good. But he didn’t impress in the first two preseason games, and he missed the key third game. Meanwhile, Alfred Morris has been their best back and is likely your Week One starter. So basically, Royster is fairly worthless right now.
 
Montario Hardesty (Cle) – He was doing so well, but now a fumble in consecutive preseason games has made his grip on the backup job very precarious, and that’s annoying because he was looking like a great handcuff for Trent Richardson. Long-term, I’d guess that he still is, since he’s a lot more talented than Brandon Jackson, who I should point out is a much better receiver and 3rd-down back. Assuming the fumbling problem doesn’t continue, my best guess is that Hardesty will still be the #2 if Richardson is out a while. But Jackson could now be more of a short-term handcuff, although that situation is still fluid (they split reps in practice with the first team on 8/27).
 
Roy Helu (Was) – Helu’s stock continues to drop, but at least compared to everyone else in this backfield, he has some speed to the outside and some solid receiving ability, so he’s at least still a viable guy for depth.
 
LeGarrette Blount (TB) – Rookie Doug Martin got the start in the key preseason game, and he once again looked very good. Martin will be the lead back Week One. There’s a role for Blount, but if Martin keeps this up, it won’t be very expansive.
 
Wide Receivers
 
Laurent Robinson (Jac) – I believe the plan is/was for Robinson to be the team’s deep threat, but that’s kind of a moot point with Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert has actually been quite solid, but he’s a guy who needs to get the ball out of his hands quickly, which is probably why the team went out and got wideout Justin Blackmon in the draft. Blackmon looks like Gabbert’s top target. Meanwhile, Robinson has been a non-factor. I do realize we have a whole regular season forthcoming, but it’s hard to invest in Robinson’s stock right now.
 
Brian Hartline (Mia) – He’s been MIA all summer, as he continues to deal with a calf injury. We have to be looking at a possible PUP landing here, or even an IR situation.
 
Doug Baldwin (WR, Sea) – Baldwin has been on the shelf for weeks, which is a concern because he hasn’t had a chance to develop chemistry with QB Russell Wilson (he spent time with Matt Flynn just before camp, but that’s not going to help him now). Baldwin had a procedure to “extract fluid out of his hamstring,” which doesn’t sound serious actually. In fact, he’s expected to be ready for Week One. But again, the lack of work with Wilson is a concern.
 
Tight Ends
 
Owen Daniels (Hou) – It appears OD is going to be needed to block a bit more than we’d like to see this year, since the right side of their OL has been replaced in 2012. He’s talented and should be needed, but he’s also an aging guy. He could go either way this year, but it’s hard to feel great about him.
 
Place Kickers
 
Billy Cundiff (Bal) – He’s been released, which, from my experience, isn’t conducive to fantasy production.
 
Holding Steady
 
Michael Vick (QB, Phi) – He’s not going to play in the preseason finale on Thursday, and at this point, that’s good news because the preseason hasn’t been kind to him. But Vick said yesterday that he’s about 90% recovered from the bruised ribs suffered in the team’s second preseason game. Vick claims he’s not injury-prone, and there is still a lot of optimism around him and the offense overall, so things are stable for now. His summer has scared the crap out of me, but I haven’t written him off as a nice upside pick, assuming now that he slips a little bit in drafts (at least the 4th round). Especially in less savvy leagues where great alternatives are available late, I still think Vick is a worthwhile pick, even if he’s almost a throwaway pick that is 100% about trying to get an impact player.  Vick could easily still be one. Sure, he’ll miss time, but if he doesn’t during your players, he could win you a title.
 
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We’ll See
 
Philip Rivers (QB, SD) – Well, we’re not going to see him again in the preseason, save for a brief cameo in the finale (if that), so all we have to go on are his first two games. They weren’t very good, so Rivers isn’t a guy to be proactive about drafting, since the vibes are not very good. The offense will struggle without RB Ryan Mathews, and he’s hardly a lock to stay on the field, and he doesn’t seem to have much chemistry with WR Robert Meachem, plus he’s going to be without possibly their best wideout in Vincent Brown for two months. This is shaky stuff here.
 
Josh Freeman (QB, TB) – Freeman got off to a nice start in the dress rehearsal game, but he fell off a cliff after a 5-for-6 start and went only 5-for-13 after that. He’s still getting on the same page as his receivers, but his lack of accuracy has been an issue dating back to last year. He’s probably going to be a pretty steady backup, but there’s not a lot of upside unless he’s forced to throw it a lot (which he might be because of the shaky defense).

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