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OFF-SEASON REPORT #20
Published Online, July 17, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #20: 2015's TD Vultures

ONLINE NOW:

Playing in Two QB Leagues - 7/17
12-Team Non-PPR Mock Review - 7/17
Offensive ID: Kubiak/Broncos - 7/17
Offensive ID: Gase/Bears - 7/17
12-Team PPR Mock Review - 7/16
2015 IDP Top-100 - 7/15
Keeper League Strategies & Tactics - 7/15
In Too Many Leagues - 7/15
General Draft Strategies & Tips - 7/14
Even More Auction Tips - 7/14
2015 Season Projections - 7/13
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 7/9
Hansen: A Newbie's Auction Draft - 7/9
Offensive ID: Arians/Cardinals - 7/9
2015 Target Matrix - 7/9
2015 Contract Year Players - 7/8
Offensive ID: Linehan/Garrett/Cowboys - 7/8
2015 PPR Gold - 7/6
2015 Rookie Report - 7/6
Staff/Friends PPR Mock Auction Review - 7/2
Depth Charts - 7/2
2015 Position Battles - 6/30
2015 Breakout Receivers - 6/26
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
Everything About Auctions - 6/22
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

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2015 TD Vultures

Published, 7/17/15

Whether you’re in a TD-only league or not, finding the endzone is obviously a key to success in fantasy football, fickle as TDs can be. So while we started putting out this preseason article to appease the TD-only dinosaurs out there (how you guys doing, by the way?), the fact is it’s a worthwhile exercise to examine which players have a little more going for them than most in the scoring department.

For the most part, we’re not going to take up our time and your time by writing about the league’s obvious choices in terms of scoring TDs. You already know who those guys are.

Note: Any reference to “red zone” in this article refers to plays inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, while any reference to “goal line” refers to plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. These numbers can be found in sortable form in our Red Zone Tool.

When a percentage is referenced for QBs and RBs – as in “Andrew Luck was involved on 62% of the Colts’ red-zone plays” – the percentage measures the times the player threw a pass, ran the ball, or was targeted on a team’s red-zone or goal-line plays.

For WRs and TEs, a percentage references to the percentage of the team’s red-zone or goal-line targets that particular player saw, unless specified otherwise.

Quarterbacks

Note: For QBs, we’re focusing on rushing TDs.

Cam Newton (Car) – Unlike last season, Newton comes into 2015 healthy, despite dealing with a variety of issues in 2014. While he’s one of the biggest and best running QBs in the league, his rushing TD totals have dipped each year (14 in 2011, 8 in 2012, 6 in 2013, 5 in 2014), although that’s understandable, since the Panthers have more options than ever in the red zone, including Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, and now, rookieDevin Funchess. Last season, Newton was tied for the most RZ rushes (16) and was involved in 57% of the team’s plays in the RZ. He also led the league in GL attempts with 5 and scored on 3 of those. Expectations for Newton’s rushing numbers shouldn’t be too high entering his fifth season, but they still play a huge part in his fantasy value.

Russell Wilson (Sea) – Wilson’s rushing numbers have jumped in every season and were a major reason why he had his best finish at the QB position last year. He was tied with Andrew Luck and Cam Newton for RZ rushes with 16, but had just 2 GL attempts, although he scored on both. Wilson led all QBs with 6 rushing TDs, 5 of those coming in the red zone, where he was involved in 52% of the team’s plays. While the addition of Jimmy Graham could certainly cut into Wilson’s TD total, especially in the red zone, it’s not like the Seahawks have much else in their offense other than Marshawn Lynch. Even if the Seahawks ramp up their passing attack (Wilson’s passing attempts have risen each season), his legs are still very important to the team, and that’ll keep him in the mix to score 5-6 TDs once again.

Andrew Luck (Ind) – Luck is such a dynamic passer from the pocket that his athleticism outside of the pocket can be underestimated, and that’s because he doesn’t rely on his legs unless he has no other options. Luck had 3 rushing TDs last season, all of which came in the red zone. He was tied with Russell Wilson andCam Newton with 16 red-zone attempts and was involved in 62% of the plays in the red zone. Luck had just a single attempt at the GL, but he didn’t score, and considering how much the Colts have invested in Luck for the future, we don’t have a problem with his backing off runs near the goal. With a bunch of weapons at his disposal, including Frank Gore in the backfield, Luck shouldn’t have to rely on his legs very often, so we’ll continue to consider any rushing TDs a pleasant bonus – but a legitimate bonus they are still.

Colin Kaepernick (SF) – The 49er offense was a mess last season and Kaepernick taking a step back didn’t help at all. While they wanted to ramp up their passing attack, it never really happened, and as a result, Kaepernick wasn’t as effective on the ground. He was second in QB rushes (105), but he scored just 1 rushing TD. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, as he wound up 4^th with 15 RZ attempts and was involved in 61% of the team’s RZ plays. He had just 1 GL attempt, but that could change in 2015 with the exit of Frank Gore. Carlos Hyde takes over for Gore, but he is unproven as a lead back, so the team could lean on Kaepernick a little more as a runner. They’ve added more weapons in the passing game with the signings of Torrey Smith andReggie Bush, and they will make a point of getting Vernon Davis back involved in the offense. Kaepernick’s raw ability and athleticism will always keep him in the mix to score TDs.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Much like Andrew Luck, Rodgers is a threat to do damage with his legs, but doesn’t take off unless he has to, which is prudent to his long-term health. He scored just a pair of rushing TDs last season on 43 attempts after not scoring in an injury-plagued 2013 season. Rodgers averaged 3.6 rushing TDs from 2008-2012, but we’re not surprised to see his rushing numbers dip as he gets older, especially with all the talent around him, including a great back in Eddie Lacy. Rodgers had 9 RZ attempts (t-7^th), and was involved in 62% of the team’s red-zone plays. Rodgers shouldn’t be considered a major threat to score with his legs, but he remains on this list because he’s certainly capable of finding the endzone a few times because of his athleticism.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Geno Smith (NYJ) – Smith finds himself in another QB competition he should win, but that’s not a given after a rocky 2014 campaign. He was 6^th among QBs with 59 rushes, but he had just 1 TD. Ten of those attempts came in the RZ, but he was involved in just 48% of the plays. The Jets added another back in Stevan Ridley and gave Smith a big target in Brandon Marshall, so at least he has a legit group of skill players around him this year, but he still has to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick for the job. If he does or develops a clear lead with a positive training camp, we’ll move him out of the watch list and into the legit vulture list since he’d have a shot to do some damage in OC Chan Gailey’s offense.

Robert Griffin (Was) – It looks like Griffin is the favorite to win the starting job coming out of training camp, but the fact that it’s even in question tells you just how badly his career has trended downward after a great rookie season. In nine games last year, RG3 had 38 rushing attempts, but just 1 TD. Of those attempts, 5 came in the RZ, where he was involved in just 40% of the plays. Injuries have been a major issue for Griffin, and keeping him healthy could be a matter of limiting how much he runs, so his value as a runner is somewhat in flux heading into training camp. We know he’s capable of picking up yardage on the ground, but it’ll be a matter of how much the Redskins call on him to do so, if he wins the starting job.

Tim Tebow (Phi) – We know Tebow isn’t a starting QB in the NFL, but the Eagles are giving him another shot to prove himself, and we wonder if they have a specific plan in place for his unique skillset. Sam Bradford certainly isn’t taking off or putting himself in a position to run the ball coming off yet another ACL injury, but the Eagles could use Tebow in RZ/GL situations, which could result in some vultured TDs away from the likes of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Tebow still has to make the team, but we’re keeping a close eye on this situation, since it could become a headache for fantasy.

Running Backs

Obvious TD hounds: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and Justin Forsett.

DeMarco Murray (Phi) – Murray is coming off a very busy and productive season for the Cowboys, but what does that mean for his future with the Eagles. In 2014, Murray was tied for the most RZ attempts (58), which resulted in 12 TDs, including 17 GL rushes (2^nd) for 9 TDs. He was the most active RB in the red zone, totaling 53% of the team’s red-zone plays. While the Eagles plan to use more than just Murray (Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles) out of their backfield, they also ran more plays than any team in the league, and if you ask HC Chip Kelly, he wants to total even more plays in 2015. While Murray may not get the same volume, he’ll be in an offense that will give him plenty of opportunities, and as we saw with his production last season (league-leading 13 rushing TDs), he can rack up the points if give the chance.

C.J. Anderson (Den) – Anderson appeared in 14 games for the Broncos last season, but didn’t start playing a big role in the offense until Week Ten. That’s why he didn’t finish among the top rushers in the RZ with just 23 attempts and 7 targets, although he was extremely efficient with 7 RZ rushing TDs and 1 RZ receiving TD. Anderson appears to have a stronghold on the starting job coming into 2015 and is a great fit for new OC Gary Kubiak’s offense. It’s always a battle for touches in Denver with guys like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but Julius Thomas is gone, and the team is replacing him with the combination of Owen Daniels/Virgil Green. Even though Peyton Manning is healthier, the team could lean on Anderson a little more, as they did down the stretch last season. It’s a great offense to be a part of, so Anderson has a higher ceiling entering 2015 as the starter.

Mark Ingram (NO) – Other than three games lost to a broken hand, Ingram was a reliable weekly fantasy option for the first time in his career last year, and he could be in an even better situation this year. Despite missing the time, he still found the endzone nine times, while racking up 46 RZ rushing attempts (5^th), despite participating in just 38% of the team’s RZ plays. However, he led the league with 20 GL attempts, and converted 7 of those into TDs. Plus, he had a decent role in the passing game, with 29 receptions on 36 targets. The Saints added C.J. Spiller to the mix, but they traded away their top RZ target in Jimmy Graham, which should give Ingram even more opportunities to score. If healthy, Ingram has a legit chance at double-digit TDs.

Jeremy Hill (Cin) – Hill’s rookie season was a strong one that got better as it went along, so we’re certainly excited about his chances to build on that in 2015. The Bengals took some time figuring out the proper ways to use Hill and Giovani Bernard in tandem, but both players ended up being very active in the red zone. Hill had 36 RZ rushes, which resulted in 7 of his 9 TDs. He was tied for 5^th with 14 GL carries and turned that into 6 TDs. The Bengals are all about featuring their backfield with Hill leading the way, so it’s fair to expect even bigger numbers for him in 2015, especially near the goal line. Considering he’s also a capable receiver (27 receptions on 32 targets in 2014), Hill has a very good chance to rack up double-digit TDs this season.

Carlos Hyde (SF) – Unlike many of the names on this list, there aren’t many strong stats to support Hyde’s inclusion because we’re not sure what to expect of him as the new starter taking over for Frank Gore in San Francisco. The team’s OL is a major question mark, and the offense as a whole is tough to get excited about with Colin Kaepernick at the helm. Still, because of Kaepernick’s struggles, the ground game should be featured once again with Hyde in the spotlight. Gore had 30 RZ carries (19^th) and 5 GL carries (t-37^th), which helped him get 5 TDs as the lead back to Hyde’s 20 RZ carries, 6 GL carries, and 4 TDs as the backup. Hyde doesn’t have major competition for carries, so the job is his to handle, and there should be plenty of touches coming his way in 2015.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Andre Williams (NYG) – Even though he played behind Rashad Jennings for most of the season, the Giants still used Williams more in the RZ (38 carries, 12^th) and he converted that into 6 TDs. Jennings is healthy after battling injuries down the stretch last year, and Shane Vereen has been getting rave reviews in off-season workouts, so while Williams may not have a major role, he should remain busy near the goal, although we’re keeping an eye on this backfield to see just how much the addition of Vereen changes distribution of touches.

David Cobb (Ten) – By cutting veteran Shonn Green in June, the Titans gave a nice endorsement to Cobb, who we already thought had a great chance to lead the team in carries as a rookie. The Titans don’t have a great team, and they’re still trying to figure out just what exactly Bishop Sankey is, so we’re not too excited about Cobb, although he fits the profile of a player who will get the most chances to be considered a decent fantasy option on a bad team. If he wins the starting job outright, we’ll bump his value up a little.

Wide Receivers

Obvious TD hounds: Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Odell Beckham, Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, Julio Jones, A.J. Green.

Alshon Jeffery (Chi) – While former teammate Brandon Marshall was always known as a big red-zone threat, Jeffery had a strong season of his own in 2014. Jeffery was 7^th with 22 RZ targets, which helped him score 7 of his 10 TDs (t-9^th). He was tied for 7^th with 7 GL targets, leading to just 1 TD. With Marshall gone, it could open Jeffery’s RZ role even more, although they still have Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte, and a pair of new additions in veteranEddie Royal and rookie Kevin White. Jeffery is the team’s best receiver entering 2015, and while we don’t have huge expectations for this offense, he should still be a very busy target.

Mike Evans (TB) – Much of Evans’ fantasy value as a rookie relied on TDs, as he was tied for 9^th with 10 scores, but a closer look at his numbers shows why he has a good chance of having another double-digit scoring season, although it might come in a different way. Despite his scoring outburst, Evan was tied for 18^th just 15 RZ targets, 6 of which went for scores. And he had a lone GL target, but of course, that was a TD. Tampa has been weapons in Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but we still expect Evans to have a bigger target share inside the 20, which is why scoring another 10+ TDs should be expected.

Kelvin Benjamin (Car) – Benjamin was another rookie who got a big fantasy boost from his TD total, scoring 9 times in 2014, which was tied for 12^thamong WRs. He did that on 17 RZ targets (t-13^th), although just 3 of those went for TDs. He added 4 GL targets, 1 of which was converted for a score. Benjamin was a bit of a garbage-time hero, and while the points count all the same, we’d like to see him play at a more consistent level. Another year will help him improve, but the Panthers also improved their receiving corps by adding another big target in Devin Funchess to go along with Benjamin and Greg Olsen. With Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart in the mix near the goal line, Carolina has plenty of strong RZ targets. If Benjamin can get a little more involved inside the 20, he won’t need to do as much down the field to replicate his rookie season’s TD total.

Emmanuel Sanders (Den) – When you play on the same team as Demaryius Thomas, RZ targets may seem like they’re hard to come by, especially since Thomas led all WRs with 39, including 6 for TDs. Sanders still managed to rack up 20 RZ targets (t-10^th) and 6 TDs of his own inside the 20. Thomas led the league with 13 GL targets, but Sanders wasn’t that far behind with 6 of his own. So the Broncos return a pair of WRs who ranked in the top-11 in both RZ and GL targets. Sanders scored 9 TDs last year and now doesn’t have to worry about Julius Thomas or Wes Welker, which is why we’ll continue to endorse him as a strong TD candidate.

Jordan Matthews (Phi) – In just his second season, Matthews will start the season as the team’s top producing receiver from 2014. Working primarily out of the slot, he was tied for 15h with 16 RZ targets and 6 TDs. He finished the season tied for 14^th with 8 total TDs. The Eagles will likely feature Matthews in the slot once again, but the next best two options are TE Zach Ertz and rookie WR Nelson Agholor, so Matthews should be in line for an even busier role in the most active offense in football. That’s usually a good recipe for lots of scoring.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Martavis Bryant (Pit) – Bryant’s fantasy value as a rookie was almost totally tied to his TD production, despite playing a part-time role in the rotation of WRs in Pittsburgh behind Antonio Brown. Bryant wound up with just 26 catches on 48 targets, but turned that into 8 TDs (t-14^th). Just 9 of those targets came in the RZ, but 4 of those went for scores. Bryant looks like the favorite to win the #2 job outright and has great size at 6-4, 211 lbs to be a more active contributor in the red zone. Keep an eye on his role in the preseason.

Devin Funchess (Car) – Funchess is an interesting rookie prospect for a Panther receiving corps that has Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, but not much else. Much like Benjamin, Funchess provides Cam Newton with another big target (6’4”, 232) although Funchess also has some versatility, as he played both WR and TE in college. Funchess should have a chance to win a starting job as a rookie, and he could be a tough player to cover working inside or outside. With his great size, Funchess has a chance to be a red-zone threat if he wins the job out of camp.

Tight Ends

Obvious TD hounds: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas.

Travis Kelce (KC) – If you’re going by last year’s numbers, Kelce doesn’t look like a strong candidate to score a bunch of TDs, but we’re expecting a lot more in 2015 because he’s clearly the team’s best match-up nightmare for opponents. While he scored just 5 TDs on 87 targets (t-13^th), he was very efficient. All 5 of his TDs came on just 13 RZ targets, including 2 for 2 at the GL. Other than Jeremy Maclin, the Chiefs don’t have any real threat in their receiving corps, and now that Anthony Fasano is gone, Kelce’s not losing snaps or targets to a lesser player. Kelce enters his second year back from a knee surgery that cost him his entire rookie season, so we’re expecting an even better performance in 2015, especially since he’s proven to be a very dangerous threat on a team that’s begging for productivity out of their passing game.

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen (Ind) – Fleener and Allen both finished the season with 8 TDs, but Fleener’s value wasn’t totally dependant on scoring, whereas Allen didn’t have any fantasy value without TDs. Allen played just 12 games, and his TDs came on 49 targets, including 5 TDs on 9 RZ targets. Fleener had 5 TDs on 13 RZ targets, which made up part of his 8 total TDs on 92 targets. Fleener has proven to be the more reliable player, both in terms of production and health, so we’re certainly favoring him for fantasy, but we can’t forget about Allen as a TD threat, even in an offense that added Andre Johnson and Frank Gore to join T.Y. Hilton.

Martellus Bennett (Chi) – Bennett led all TEs in receptions (90) and was second in targets (124), but he scored just 6 TDs. And it wasn’t for a lack of chances in the red zone, as he finished tied for 2^nd with 21 RZ targets, which is where he scored all of his TDs. He had just 3 GL targets, resulting in a single score. The Bears got rid of a big red-zone threat in Brandon Marshall, but Bennett still has to battle for targets with Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, and Matt Forte. It’s hard to see Bennett have yet another career-year after he’s done so over the last three years, but he should still be busy in the red zone, and that makes him a legit threat to be a TD vulture.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Charles Clay (Buf) – Clay turned a back-to-back productive seasons into a bidding war between the Dolphins and Bills, with Buffalo winning the battle. Clay replaces Scott Chandler as the team’s starting TE after a season in which he racked up 20 RZ targets (4^th) of 84 total targets (15^th), although he scored just 3 times. As such an active RZ threat, we expect the Bills to look his way, but we’ll be monitoring any news on his role and how the offense looks, since they’ll want to pound it with LeSean McCoy, and we still have questions about the QB situation.

Owen Daniels/Virgil Green (Den) – With Julius Thomas now in Jacksonville, the Broncos are looking to make up for lost production, which is why they re-signed Green and brought in a veteran of HC Gary Kubiak’s system in Daniels. Daniels could end up starting the season as the top TE in this offense, especially because he knows it, and Green has never done much more than blocking over his four seasons, as evidenced by his scoring just 1 TD on 23 receptions. Playing with Peyton Manning gives a boost to any starter, especially in the red zone for the TEs, so we’ll be watching this TE situation closely throughout training camp and into the season.

Maxx Williams (Bal) – Backing a rookie TE isn’t usually the smartest move for fantasy, but Williams comes to a Raven receiving corps begging for talent. Other than Steve Smith, they don’t have established veterans to fall back on, and Smith will likely line up with another rookie in WR Breshad Perriman. Dennis Pitta’s career is still in doubt after another major hip surgery, so the only player standing in Williams’ way is second-year TECrockett Gillmore, who had just 10/121/1 as a rookie. We know Williams has a lot to learn and the transition for a rookie TE can be tough, but considering the need this team has in their receiving corps and new OC Marc Trestman targeting Martellus Bennett 219 times over his two seasons with the Bears, we can’t ignore Williams’ potential to contribute right away, especially in the red zone.

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Friday, July 17, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #20 (2015's TD Vultures)

2015 TD Vultures

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