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OFF-SEASON REPORT #18
Published Online, July 10, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #18: 2015's RB Handcuffs

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 7/9
Hansen: A Newbie's Auction Draft - 7/9
Offensive ID: Arians/Cardinals - 7/9
2015 Target Matrix - 7/9
2015 Contract Year Players - 7/8
Offensive ID: Linehan/Garrett/Cowboys - 7/8
2015 PPR Gold - 7/6
2015 Rookie Report - 7/6
Staff/Friends PPR Mock Auction Review - 7/2
Depth Charts - 7/2
2015 Position Battles - 6/30
2015 Breakout Receivers - 6/26
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
Everything About Auctions - 6/22
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

Off-Season Report #18: 2015's Top backups - Next week

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2015 RB Handcuffs

Published, 7/10/15

The reality is that “handcuffing” your stud RBs is less important than ever, since the pecking order and the roles in most backfields are murkier than ever. These days, it’s rare to find one single player who’s behind a starter and would be poised to handle a large workload should that starter go down.

In some cases, we can absolutely name a single handcuff option for a particular backfield, and we certainly will when we can. But at this point, the goal of this article is to simply put into perspective what we think would happen if the top guy in a backfield – if there is one – should miss time.

In some cases, we have no other choice but to assume it’ll be a major RBBC if a lead back is out of the mix, but our goal with this article is to isolate the players to watch in a given backfield if the starter missed time.

In general, a player listed as a short-term handcuff is likely a conservative pick. For example, if Matt Forte is out for just 1-2 weeks, we’d have to believe veteran Jacquizz Rodgers would be his main replacement for the short-term. Should Forte miss two months, though, we’d probably lean more to the rookie Jeremy Langford as more of an upside-oriented and long-term replacement (and we’ll have to see about veteran Daniel Thomas and if he even makes the team).

As usual, we’ll be updating this article regularly all the way up till Week Seventeen of the 2015 season.

Arizona Cardinals: In his first year as the lead back, Andre Ellington battled his way through injuries to have a pretty productive 12 weeks before landing on the IR. The Cardinals spoke of getting bigger at the position and they did with the selection of David Johnson in the 3^rd round of this year’s draft. Johnson has a few inches and about 25 pounds on Ellington, but he has a similar skill set, so the two are expected to function in a tandem. While Ellington is expected to lead the way, the team believes they have a bigger version of Ellington in Johnson, and according to the Arizona Republic, Johnson proved to be a natural catching the ball during OTAs and RB coach Stump Mitchell compared him to Matt Forte. Ellington enters training camp at full health, so he remains atop the depth chart until further notice, but Johnson, barring a disappointing showing in training camp, appears set as both the short-term and long-term handcuff.

Short-term handcuff: David Johnson

Long-term handcuff: David Johnson

Atlanta Falcons: After winding up with just 95 touches as a rookie, Devonta Freeman comes into the 2015 season with a slight edge to be the team’s starter – but he’ll quickly have to face competition from the team’s 3^rd-round pick, Tevin Coleman. According to HC Dan Quinn, the team will be featuring Freeman “in a lot of different ways,” with Quinn adding that he’s impressed with Freeman’s “quickness” and that the second-year player is “tough.” Coleman missed some time during the spring with a groin injury, which allowed Freeman to work with the first-team offense atop the depth chart. Freeman has shown quicker feet, been better in pass protection, and has drawn well overall from having a little more pro experience. While ESPN gives Freeman the edge to start, this competition is far from over and may not be fully settled by the time the season starts. Veteran Antone Smithremains on the roster, but his role as a complementary and change-up runner should be set, meaning he shouldn’t be a serious threat for touches.

Short-term handcuff: Tevin Coleman

Long-term handcuff: Tevin Coleman

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens clearly have their man in Justin Forsett, but he’s entering his eighth season and will be 30 in October, so he’s no spring chicken. That makes it important to know who to turn to as his handcuff, especially since this is a good situation in Baltimore. Last season,Lorenzo Taliaferro worked his way into the mix as a rookie, but never separated from Bernard Pierce as the #2 behind Forsett. With Pierce gone, Taliaferro battles rookie Buck Allen for the back-up job in 2015. Taliaferro was very serviceable in 2014, but his a little stiff as a runner and versatility isn’t a big part of his game, so Allen might already be even with him heading into training camp. Allen can do a lot more in the passing game as a receiver and protector, and HC John Harbaugh has already lauded him for those skills. If he shows some pop in short yardage, this can go from a potential #2 committee to Allen earning the primary handcuff job outright out of camp.

Short-term handcuff: Lorenzo Taliaferro/Javorius Allen

Long-term handcuff: Javorius Allen

Buffalo Bills: The Bills made a huge move to kick off the Rex Ryan era by trading LB Kiko Alonso to the Eagles in exchange for LeSean McCoy, giving the team an immediate upgrade at RB. While McCoy is coming off a relatively disappointing season in Philadelphia, he’s clearly the top back in Buffalo, but the back-up situation is somewhat murky. Veteran Fred Jackson has battled through injuries and has admitted he’s not a lock to make the roster, which is understandable since he turned 34 in February. Jackson is expected to be the leading candidate for the #2 running back job entering training camp, but he will have to contribute on the field if he wants to stay with the team, since he does not play special teams. He’s the short-term and long-term handcuff if he makes the team. If not, it’s pretty wide open. Veteran Anthony Dixon does play special teams (and plays them well), but he’s been nothing more than a backup for his career and could be on the roster bubble, if rookie RB Karlos Williams proves his worth in training camp. Bryce Brown has never put it all together, but he has plenty of talent and youth on his side at just 24-years-old. Overall there isn’t a clear handcuff for McCoy heading into training camp, but we’re expecting one of these backups to get cut and clear things up somewhere along the way.

Short-term handcuff: Fred Jackson

Long-term handcuff: Fred Jackson

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers finally felt comfortable enough with Jonathan Stewart as their workhorse to let DeAngelo Williams go, but they haven’t completely forgotten about Stewart’s lengthy injury history prior to his outstanding rebound 2014 season. It’s critical to have a primary backup who could handle an expanded role if Stewart were to go on the shelf again. Heading into camp, it looks like a committee of Fozzy Whittaker and rookieCameron Artis-Payne would be in line to replace Stewart. But as Artis-Payne develops and the team feels more comfortable with his handling all the duties, including pass protection, his running style makes him better suited to emerge as the clear #2. According to ESPN, the team believes CAP can handle a full workload, if needed. Jordan Todman has experience, but is being earmarked more for the return game and likely won’t see many touches in this backfield outside of a few touches as a changeup runner and receiving back.

Short-term handcuff: Fozzy Whittaker/Cameron Artis-Payne

Long-term handcuff: Cameron Artis-Payne

Chicago Bears: Matt Forte has been one of the busiest RB in the league since he entered the NFL, and over the last two seasons he hasn’t had a challenger for touches. While we don’t see anyone on the Bears’ roster to dramatically change that, HC John Fox has used committees in the past, although even he acknowledged that the team could roll with Forte as their true, lead back. Of course, unlike his RBBCs in Carolina and Denver, no one comes close to Forte in terms of talent and versatility. Veteran Jacquizz Rodgers is strong in pass protection and is a capable pass-catcher, but he hasn’t shown much when given more opportunities. Jeremy Langford, the rookie 4th-rounder, looks most like the complete package because of his pro-style running pedigree and ability to contribute in the passing game. Talent-wise, Langford should be the choice, and they like his speed, but there’s a good chance Fox is a little more comfortable trusting Rodgers as the initial #2 coming out of camp, since Langford has played multiple positions and needs polish as a runner. Given he wasn’t hand-acquired by the new regime, Ka’Deem Carey will have a hard time keeping his roster spot since he doesn’t offer too much in the return game. A wildcard is veteran Daniel Thomas, who was signed by the club on June 18^th. If he makes the team, Fox and OC Adam Gase could certainly consider him for a significant role if Forte is out. But first, Thomas has to make the team.

Short-term handcuff: Jacquizz Rodgers

Long-term handcuff: Jeremy Langford

Cincinnati Bengals: It took some time, but by the end of last season, the Bengals figured out that Jeremy Hill was their best option to be the lead back, with Giovani Bernard working in as more of a change-of-pace option, albeit a pretty busy one considering how much they rely on their backfield to carry the offense. Hill told ESPN he expected a “balanced attack,” so neither player has to worry about getting worn out, which certainly makes sense since they are both so key to the success of the team. Bernard has experience as a lead back, so he could certainly handle more touches if Hill were to go down, and Hill has proven to be a capable receiver if Bernard was unavailable to play that role. There’s a wide gap between Hill/Bernard and the rest of the RBs, including Rex Burkhead, who worked as a receiver during OTAs. Cedric Peerman hasn’t been much more than a special teams player andJames Wilder has struggled to find his way after spending last year on the practice squad. This is all about Hill and Bernard and there’s really no way to replace what either of them bring to the table.

Short-term handcuff: Giovani Bernard

Long-term handcuff: Giovani Bernard

Cleveland Browns: The Browns have arguably the most wide-open competition in the entire league and it comes down to three players with no one in the clear lead for the starting job. Duke Johnson joins the backfield as a 3^rd-round pick for a team that couldn’t decide on a starter last year. Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West outlasted Ben Tate, but neither did enough to lock down the starting job nor did they do anything to give the Browns second thoughts about using a day two pick on Johnson. But there was some clarity in OTAs and mini-camp, as Crowell ran with the first team. He is considered the front-runner to get the most carries in what should be another run-heavy attack with a lot more questions about the passing game. Although Johnson has some intriguing all-around skills and has gained much praise for it, the hype has given way to the fact they would like to use the rookie most as a receiving back in sub-packages. However, talent could eventually overcome everything else and the team might have to acknowledge Johnson is their best option – and they would be perfectly fine with that. In fact, they’re hoping that is the case. If Johnson starts the season in theGiovani Bernard role RB Wilbert Montgomery talked about in June, West will have to overcome Crowell to have a role, and that is certainly possible, as we’re told West actually had a very good off-season. For now, it’s shaping up as Crowell being the #1 with Johnson seeing the next significant touches and West backing them up in both roles, but this is a very fluid situation.

Short-term handcuff: Terrance West (for Crowell and Johnson)

Long-term handcuff: TBD

Dallas Cowboys: With DeMarco Murray leaving Dallas for Philadelphia, we expected the Cowboys to draft a RB to go along with Joseph Randle andDarren McFadden in an effort to add some youth and talent to a somewhat uninspiring group. Much to everyone’s surprise, the Cowboys didn’t take a RB and have already cut the UDFA they signed (Synjyn Days), leaving Randle in the driver’s seat to win the starting job, which is his to lose. Randle leads this battle going into training camp by a “healthy” margin. He was the most productive, established backup to Murray behind their elite run-blocking line last season, and has backed up his words with good power and burst early in the off-season. McFadden already has had his injury issues follow him from the Raiders, as a hamstring has contributed to relegating him to mostly second-string duty so far. It’s becoming clear that, although the team wants to commit to more of a committee, it’s not playing out that way. Randle is looking good as the #1, and it will take McFadden standing on his head to be more than a #2 to start the season. The Cowboys have hinted they plan to follow through on getting Lance Dunbar involved as a change-of-pace receiving back, but even though we heard that last year, it’s easier to believe them with Murray gone. Dunbar will first need to deal with a healthier Ryan Williams trying to take the team’s third and probable final roster spot at the position away from him in camp, although Williams’ lengthy injury history isn’t working in his favor.

Short-term handcuff: Darren McFadden

Long-term handcuff: Darren McFadden

Denver Broncos: C.J. Anderson really hasn’t lost any ground to Montee Ball this year after taking advantage of Ball’s injury and ineffectiveness to break out as the Broncos’ feature back last season. In fact, he’s strengthened his position in the new offense under Gary Kubiak. Kubiak’s history in operating the zone-blocking rushing attack has been to eschew a committee in favor of a workhorse, and he has plenty of evidence that Anderson is capable of that role from 2014. However, Ball did get some first-team reps in OTAs and minicamp, and he should get some carries every week (perhaps as many as 7-8 per game). Ball may not be considered a #1A type, but he could possibly make the backfield more competitive than expected, and he should be the #2 and top handcuff to Anderson over Juwan Thompson and Ronnie Hillman. Hillman, like Ball, has had a strong off-season and will add to the competitiveness of this backfield. In theory, he’s a nifty changeup to either Anderson or Ball.

Short-term handcuff: Montee Ball

Long-term handcuff: Montee Ball

Detroit Lions: For the last two seasons, Joique Bell has done a solid job as the lead back in Detroit, but he also hasn’t had much competition, and he’s proven to be replaceable. He now has legit competition after the Lions used a 2^nd-round pick on Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah has worked as a returner and should be prominently featured in the return game, but his role should be expanded rather quickly based on how he performs and the status of Bell. Thanks to off-season Achilles’ and knee procedures, Bell spent OTAs on the sidelines, which allowed Abdullah to work with the first-team offense. OC Joe Lombardi has expressed concern with Bell’s shape coming into training camp and preached caution with the veteran. While Abdullah was tabbed for a significant role already, that could turn into a starting role if Bell’s issues linger throughout the preseason. At least initially, Bell and Abdullah are expected to form a 1-2 punch in the Lions' backfield this year, and Head coach Jim Caldwell is supposedly set on running the ball more in 2015. We’d consider Bell and Abdullah to be handcuffs for each other, with Theo Riddick contributing almost entirely as a receiver, but the starting job is very much up for grabs.

Short-term handcuff: Abdullah and Bell for each other

Long-term handcuff: Abdullah and Bell for each other

Green Bay Packers: The Packers have the simplest backfield to figure out because they have such clear roles. Eddie Lacy has no challenge as the top back, and James Starks has done a fine job as the team’s #2, both as a handcuff for Lacy and someone they can trust to handle 2-3 series a game if Lacy needs a breather. HC Mike McCarthy talked about limiting Lacy’s touches earlier in the off-season, but that’s no surprise, especially since Lacy plays such an active role in the passing game.

Short-term handcuff: James Starks

Long-term handcuff: James Starks

Houston Texans: As we know, when Arian Foster is on the field, he’s one of the most productive backs in the game. Unfortunately, you have to always worry about injuries when it comes to Foster, which is why finding his handcuff has been so important in the fantasy world. Last year, it was Alfred Blue, although there was a clear drop-off in production, as Blue averaged only 3.1 YPC with a large sample size of 169 carries. Blue worked with Adrian Peterson during this off-season, but faces competition from Chris Polk, Jonathan Grimes, and 7^th round pick Kenny Hilliard. Hilliard is a long shot to be a serious threat to anyone’s carries this season, and Grimes never moved higher than the #3 spot last year. Polk has the best chance of unseating Blue as the backup to Foster, and we should note he was able to wrestle goal-line carries away from LeSean McCoy in Philadelphia last year. We’re giving Blue the slight edge as the incumbent, but it’s a situation to watch in the preseason and possibly into the regular season. It’s worth noting that we’ve heard from more than one NFL personnel man that Polk is highly regarded as a short-yardage runner.

Short-term handcuff: Alfred Blue

Long-term handcuff: Alfred Blue

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts feel comfortable with Frank Gore as the workhorse, but the former 49er also turned 32 and needs a good all-around understudy. Although Dan Herron was a better option for key touches last season over Trent Richardson, his limited running skills and ball-security issues don’t make him look nearly as good in this new-look backfield. Rookie Josh Robinson, a 6^th-round pick, has impressed as a tough runner with some receiving pop (28 catches last year at Mississippi State), making him a more ideal #2 to Gore. That will happen if Robinson can nail down pass protection to the coaches’ satisfaction in training camp. Vick Ballard isn’t a factor here, as his slow recovery from an Achilles’ injury puts his future with the team and the NFL in real doubt. In the best case, the Colts will declare him physically unable to perform to start the season.

Short-term handcuff: Dan Herron

Long-term handcuff: Dan Herron/Josh Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars: The team’s 2^nd-round pick, rookie T.J. Yeldon, didn’t waste any time to make sure this isn’t really a competition going into camp. They drafted him to be that hammer of a between-the-tackles runner he was at Alabama, but his skills in the passing game, both as a receiver and well-coached blocker, have virtually ensured he will open the season as their lead three-down workhorse. Toby Gerhart looks healthier and more comfortable in a rushing offense more tailored to his skills, but the Jaguars have also realized those are assets to make him just a sound #2 and get some work as an active fullback. Gerhart could also have a role as a short-yardage back. The versatile Denard Robinson, who flashed a bit when pressed into action last season, also has his role as a change-of-pace back.

Short-term handcuff: Toby Gerhart/Denard Robinson

Long-term handcuff: Denard Robinson/ Toby Gerhart

Kansas City Chiefs: Much like the Packers, the Chiefs have a very clear pecking order in their backfield, which has made life much easier for fantasy owners used to dealing with RBBCs around the league. Jamaal Charles is still playing at a high level and is the unquestioned starter. Knile Davis is the handcuff and #2 to Charles, and as we saw last year, he can handle a series or two to keep Charles fresh or hold down the starting job if Charles were to go down yet again. Davis told ESPN he doesn’t “feel like there’s a gap” between the two in terms of ability but knows Charles is the starter. Davis’ poor career YPC average disputes that claim, but regardless he’s the guy to have as protection if you draft Charles.

Short-term handcuff: Knile Davis

Long-term handcuff: Knile Davis

Miami Dolphins: Last year, the Dolphins figured out it was time to commit to the run game, and Lamar Miller was the biggest beneficiary, especially afterKnowshon Moreno was lost to multiple injuries. While the Dolphins have expressed interest in other backs this off-season, their biggest move was to select Jay Ajayi in the 5^th round after the rookie slipped down draft boards due to concerns with the long-term health of his knee. Miller needs to watch out for what’s happening behind him at some point during the season because multiple executives in the organization, including GM Dennis Hickey believe Ajayi can be a three-down back. Damien Williams had the top back-up gig until Ajayi was drafted. As the team has gotten a closer look at the rookie, they have seen his three-down workhorse potential. That allowed Ajayi to easily catapult over Williams as a high-upside #2 going into training camp, while Williams has faded to the point where he’s more fending off LaMichael James and Mike Gillislee to remain on the team as a #3. The bigger story to watch is a potential battle for the starting job between Ajayi and Miller, although we’d expect Miller to enter the season as the unquestioned starter.

Short-term handcuff: Jay Ajayi

Long-term handcuff: Jay Ajayi

Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson returns to the Vikings after missing all but one game last season, and despite some drama about his holding out or not reporting, he showed up to off-season workouts and is back atop their depth chart as the unquestioned starter. In Peterson’s absence last year, Matt Asiata was the primary back, with Jerick McKinnon working in as more of a change-of-pace back. McKinnon had back surgery in December and has fully recovered, but the team has given mixed signals on his role. While RB coachKirby Wilson talked to McKinnon’s improvement in pass protection and ability as a “premier, dynamic playmaker,” HC Norv Turner indicated McKinnon’s role could be limited behind Peterson, especially since Asiata is a viable fit as a #2 to Peterson. Still, the dynamic McKinnon could definitely carve out a role as a changeup runner and 3^rd down back even if Peterson won’t be coming off the field very often. It’s not an easy situation to get a handle on, but the bottom line is, should Peterson go down, while Asiata would have a role, McKinnon is clearly the guy to have after AP.

Short-term handcuff: Jerick McKinnon

Long-term handcuff: Jerick McKinnon

New England Patriots: The Patriots love to make their top power back position a revolving door, but it’s notable that when they had a second chance atLeGarrette Blount last November, they gave him a two-year deal knowing they were set to let Stevan Ridley walk. HC Bill Belichick and the coaching staff love his running style and attitude. Jonas Gray has had his moments in that role, and Brandon Bolden doesn’t seem to go away because he has value on special teams. Watch out for darkhorse Tyler Gaffney. He missed all of his rookie season with a knee injury, but the Patriots claimed him when the Panthers tried to get him through waivers. Belichick talked up Gaffney early in the off-season, but he’s not a lock to make the regular-season roster.James White, Travaris Cadet, and Dion Lewis are battling for the pass-catching role, which was formerly held by Shane Vereen. Both White and Cadet have gotten strong reviews this off-season, so that’s a battle that should continue throughout training camp. Blount goes into the season as the heavy #1 here, although he’s suspended for the opener, so we may get a better idea of who the team trusts as their #2 based on how they prepare for the opener without Blount.

Short-term handcuff: RBBC

Long-term handcuff: RBBC

New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram’s status with the Saints seemed to be a major question mark when he hit free agency this year, but he ended up quickly signing a four-year deal at the beginning of the league year. However, the Saints also added C.J. Spiller, who, while talented, had injury issues and five mostly underwhelming seasons with the Bills. Spiller is a dynamic talent and could be a nice fit as a space player in the Saint offense. With the team trading both Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills away and attempts to bolster the OL along with the signings of both Ingram and Spiller, there seems to be at least a slight shift in offensive philosophy, which could mean major roles for both Ingram and Spiller. Ingram will remain the early-down feature back and handle most of the power rushing duties as the #1. Spiller is expected to get a lot of work as a speedy receiving back whom the Saints often try to get to the edge and into the open field. Given how his touches and yardage can add up from that role, Spiller is more like a situational co-#1 with Ingram. That shouldn’t leave too much of a role for Khiry Robinson as a #3, other than as direct backup in the running game if Ingram were to go on the shelf.

Short-term handcuff: C.J. Spiller/Khiry Robinson (Robinson likely picks up Ingram’s role)

Long-term handcuff: C.J. Spiller/Khiry Robinson (Robinson likely picks up Ingram’s role)

New York Giants: Rashad Jennings has the edge to begin the season as the starter again, but considering his injury issues, we can’t forget aboutAndre Williams, although he was far from impressive filling in for Jennings last year. According to NJ.com, Shane Vereen is “going to be a big part of the offense” instead of just being a pass-catcher out of the backfield. While Jennings has contributed as a receiver in the past, the team would be wise to let Vereen handle those duties in an effort to keep Jennings fresh, and Jennings and Vereen will likely be on the field at the same time at times. The odd man out here looks like plodding Williams, who offers little pop outside of goal-line situations. It’s hard to see him staying on the field much other than as a one-note power back. He will likely be the #3, but should be considered the handcuff for Jennings since Vereen fits into more of a specialty role. If Vereen is out, then Jennings will likely pick up most of the slack in the passing game, since Williams is a terrible receiver out of the backfield.

Short-term handcuff: Andre Williams

Long-term handcuff: Andre Williams

New York Jets: Chris Ivory has the lead for #1 while Stevan Ridley continues to recover from a torn ACL and could wind up on the PUP list to start the season, according to the Star-Ledger. Bilal Powell is unofficially listed as the #2 going into training camp, but his true role is as a third-down receiving back. It will take a while before the team can green-light Ridley, so we’re keeping an eye on Zac Stacy to possibly open the season as the team’s #2 back. Ivory looks like a pretty safe bet to open the season as the starter, but there are questions after that that need to be settled in training camp. Also, look for Powell to have a larger role as a receiving specialist in a Chan Gailey offense that tends to use its RBs in the passing game.

Short-term handcuff: Zac Stacy/Stevan Ridley

Long-term handcuff: Stevan Ridley (if healthy)/Zac Stacy

Oakland Raiders: Everything is looking great for Latavius Murray, as the 6’3”, 225-pounder’s blend of power and explosiveness has been a fantastic fit for Bill Musgrave’s offense to far. Jack Del Rio and the rest of the coaching staff are starting to believe Murray can hold up as the featured workhorse, and he built a significant lead as the first-teamer in mini-camp. Richardson, coming off his terrible time in Indianapolis, has lost weight and is doing what he can to get in the mix, but he’s unlikely to push hard enough for time to make this a committee and will likely settle for being a strict early-down backup to Murray, while Roy Helu is set to get more key touches than Richardson as a change-of-pace sub-package receiving back.

Short-term handcuff: Roy Helu

Long-term handcuff: Roy Helu/Trent Richardson

Philadelphia Eagles: DeMarco Murray joins the Eagles after a monster season behind a great Cowboy OL. He’s on top of the depth chart, but the team has plenty of talent behind him in Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. Sproles, now 32, saw his touches dwindle down the stretch in 2014, and the Eagles are looking at him even more in a specialized role, a strict change-of-pace receiver to go along with his return duties. Sproles’ age and body type add up to their not wanting to use him in traditional ways, and with Mathews in the mix, Kelly doesn’t have to do that. Mathews stands out as the clear #2 and handcuff to Murray, and that won’t change in camp unless those familiar injury issues resurface. However, we expect Mathews to be more than just a backup in this high-volume offense, especially with Murray coming off such a busy season in Dallas as both a runner and a receiver.

Short-term handcuff: Ryan Mathews

Long-term handcuff: Ryan Mathews

Pittsburgh Steelers: Le’Veon Bell is one of the best backs in the league and is coming off a season with 290 carries and 83 receptions, as the team didn’t have anyone to challenge him for touches. Bell battled a knee injury at the end of last year and should be fully healthy for training camp, but he’ll have some extra time to get ready for the regular season because he’s facing a three-game suspension. While he’s waiting to hear on his appeal of the suspension, ESPN’s Adam Schefter told us on 7/6/15 not to expect a reduction in Bell’s suspension, so the Steelers will turn to veteran DeAngelo Williams while Bell is out. Williams filled a gaping hole on the team’s depth chart, as neither Dri Archernor Josh Harris deserved to be the primary backup behind Bell.

Short-term handcuff: DeAngelo Williams

Long-term handcuff: DeAngelo Williams

San Diego Chargers: Rookie Melvin Gordon takes over as the feature back forRyan Mathews, and Danny Woodhead, fully recovered from breaking his leg and ankle early last season, returns to his change-of-pace receiving back role. SoBranden Oliver and Donald Brown are vying to be the early-down backup to Gordon. Gordon and Woodhead offer what Oliver can in the passing game, only at a much higher level. Oliver wasn’t great last season, but he was clearly better than Brown and should have the leg up on Brown for the primary backup job heading into training camp (although he does still have to settle in as the #2 RB over the veteran Brown).

Short-term handcuff: Branden Oliver

Long-term handcuff: Branden Oliver

San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Hyde has maintained the momentum to replaceFrank Gore as the #1 and will easily get the most carries on this team. NewcomerReggie Bush is carving out a fairly significant role right behind Hyde as the primary receiving back. That still leaves a void for an early-down backup for Hyde, however.Mike Davis, the rookie from South Carolina, is better suited for that role. Hunter, while well recovered from knee surgery and looking spry again, has the size and a skill set that more mirrors Bush. As the Niners are well defining their RB roles, Davis is headed to be the true handcuff for Hyde, and likewise Hunter for Bush.

Short-term handcuff: Mike Davis (for Hyde)/Kendall Hunter (for Bush)

Long-term handcuff: Mike Davis (for Hyde)/Kendall Hunter (for Bush)

Seattle Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch keeps defying age (29) and mileage to keep producing as the workhorse. Until he slows down, he’s the dominant #1 in this rushing offense, making the #2 nothing more than a straight-up handcuff. Turbin, even while recovering from hip surgery and having the potential to miss preseason action, has the same kind of stranglehold on the top back-up job since he really doesn’t have anything to prove, according to ESPN. Michael has yet to make any significant progress toward wrestling the #2 job away from Turbin, and you’d think this would be a good opportunity with Turbin recovering from surgery. However, he missed time in the minicamp with a hamstring injury and UDFA Thomas Rawls from Central Michigan caught the eye of both coaches and beat writers, making several observers wonder if Michael’s roster spot could be in jeopardy. The Michael/Rawls battle will be fascinating to watch during training camp and the preseason, and in the event Michael were to hit the open market, plenty of teams would be interested because of his natural ability.

Short-term handcuff: Robert Turbin

Long-term handcuff: TBD

St. Louis Rams: After a solid rookie season, Tre Mason was surprised when the Rams selected Todd Gurley in the first round of the draft, but also was helped when they traded Zac Stacy during the draft. That’s because Gurley hasn’t been able to practice yet, still recovering from the ACL injury he suffered in his final season at Georgia. He was scheduled to meet with Dr. James Andrews before training camp to get full clearance. While he hasn’t has any reported setbacks, he’ll still need to learn the offense and get actual reps on the field. Gurley is definitely more talented, but Mason is a fair bet to be the early #1, but as soon as Gurley’s healthy, he’s bound to take over that status.

Short-term handcuff: Mason and Gurley for each other

Long-term handcuff: Mason and Gurley for each other

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Charles Sims had his rookie season ruined by an ankle injury, but got the early raves from the Bucs’ coaching staff. However, he’s faded to the background going into training camp as Doug Martin has kept coming on stronger in an attempt to reclaim his starting job for good. Martin ran with the first team in OTAs and minicamp, looking healthy, leaner, and meaner. Sims can’t be ruled out to rise again, given he’s a pet project of the team, but it’s becoming more evident he’s better suited to be limited to third-down relief duty. There’s a bigger drop-off to #3 with Bobby Rainey, who will be in a fight just to keep his roster spot. According to the Tampa Tribune, Martin’s off-season has been the best in “three years,” so he has a legit shot to win the starting job, although this could be a fluid situation throughout the regular season.

Short-term handcuff: TBD during training camp

Long-term handcuff: TBD during training camp

Tennessee Titans: Bishop Sankey was the first running back drafted in 2014, but he really failed to live up to his draft position as a rookie. He lacked both power and quickness, didn’t read his blockers well and didn’t offer much in the passing game. This year, he’s having trouble just getting his handoffs down. That’s all great news for David Cobb, this year’s more talented 5th-round pick, to shoot past Sankey to the top of the depth chart in training camp. Although Cobb won’t be a game-breaker, his compact power and no-nonsense running style is more in line with what Tennessee wants. He can also handle a high volume and has the pass-protection skills to make the team feel good about him lining up next to a rookie franchise passer. Sankey is still considered their “starter,” but if he doesn’t do anything of note soon, Cobb could dominate the touches by midseason or earlier. One element that could help Sankey, at least early, is that they’re breaking in a rookie QB. Ken Whisenhunt is a conservative coach who might not like the idea of an all-rookie backfield.

Short-term handcuff: David Cobb

Long-term handcuff: David Cobb

Washington Redskins: Alfred Morris says he feels fresher to keep producing as the workhorse, but the Redskins will keep his workload a lighter than we’re used to in an effort to keep him fresh. Matt Jones, the rookie 3rd-round pick, has done more than impress as the talented third-down receiving back they thought he would be — he is the heavy favorite to be Morris’ new top backup, as his size (6’2”, 231 lbs.) isn’t an issue in that capacity. Chris Thompson and Silas Redd were supposed to battle for third-down duty behind Morris before Jones was drafted, but now there is probably room for only one of them on the roster. Thompson has flashed speed, but Redd has more substance as a traditional rushing backup. It’s hard to see either catching up to Jones as the #2, and the loser in the #3 battle could be cut. Redd could end up taking Roy Helu’s old role as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Short-term handcuff: Matt Jones

Long-term handcuff: Matt Jones

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Friday, July 10, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #18 (2015's RB Handcuffs)

2015 RB Handcuffs

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