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OFF-SEASON REPORT #19
Published Online, July 14, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #19: 2015's Top Backups

ONLINE NOW:

General Draft Strategies & Tips - 7/14
Even More Auction Tips - 7/14
2015 Season Projections - 7/13
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 7/9
Hansen: A Newbie's Auction Draft - 7/9
Offensive ID: Arians/Cardinals - 7/9
2015 Target Matrix - 7/9
2015 Contract Year Players - 7/8
Offensive ID: Linehan/Garrett/Cowboys - 7/8
2015 PPR Gold - 7/6
2015 Rookie Report - 7/6
Staff/Friends PPR Mock Auction Review - 7/2
Depth Charts - 7/2
2015 Position Battles - 6/30
2015 Breakout Receivers - 6/26
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
Everything About Auctions - 6/22
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

Off-Season Report #20: 20015's TD Vultures

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2015 Top Backups

Published, 7/14/15

In today’s specialized NFL that includes multiple RB, WR, and TE packages, it’s particularly hard to isolate those players who are clear backups and not simply complementary players. This article will try to highlight those players and detail why they have a chance to contribute if forced into the starting lineup.

There will always be players on our top backups list who wind up doing diddlysquat because we are trying to isolate low-end players with some legit upside, but you have to remember that almost all of these players need some help to make an impact. Yet it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a clear understanding of the league’s top backups. As we see year after year, players rise up their team’s depth charts during the season and help for fantasy.

As for our criteria for listing and ranking the following backups, we’re looking at a few factors: the starter’s injury history, the backup’s own ability to produce, his supporting cast, and also the possibility that the player in front of him on the depth chart has some non-injury issues.

There were some major home runs in this article last year, first published in early July – C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett, Matt Asiata, Andre Williams,Latavius Murray, Martavis Bryant, Charles Johnson, John Brown, Allen Hurns, and Owen Daniels were among the players listed. Among those players, we had some with legit season-long value, some with excellent short-term value, and a couple of players who could have filled in for a week or two for injuries/byes, or guys who turned out to be excellent cheap DFS plays.

So as you can see, profiling the league’s top back-up players is a worthwhile endeavor, if for no other reason than to isolate players whose situations are worth keeping an eye on during the season. And that’s the key word for this article – situation.

Note: For brevity’s sake, we tried to ignore players who are projected to contribute in a significant rotational role or are currently given a decent shot of winning a starting job in camp. This article is strictly for players we view as clear backups and the players are listed in order of their chances of getting on the field, as well as their ability to produce if they do.

Quarterbacks

The Top Options

Mark Sanchez (Phi) – How simple is this one? Sanchez did start games with the Eagles last year, and while his overall play wasn’t markedly better than his days with the Jets, he was very relevant for fantasy – he ranked #12 among QBs over his nine appearances at 21.3 FPG, and if you count just his eight starts, he was #10 at 21.6 FPG over the second half of the year, falling below 20 FP in our site-default scoring system just once in eight starts. He’s in the same offense this year, but now he’s behind Sam Bradford, who has two torn ACLs in as many seasons. Sanchez will be valued as a handcuff for Bradford in best-ball and two-QB leagues, and he’s already proven that he can put up numbers under Chip Kelly, even if he turns the ball over too much. Sanchez has been commiserating and working with some of his key receivers this summer, and that’s a wise move on his part because it’s certainly possible that Bradford isn’t ready for Week 1. It would cost two roster spots, but owning the Sanchez-Bradford combo should net fantasy owners 30 TDs total in 2015.

Jimmy Garoppolo (NE) – Garoppolo is probably the only guy on this list who could outright guaranteed to start games, barring a complete eradication ofTom Brady’s four-game suspension (it is very possible Brady doesn’t miss a game in 2015). The Patriots have been preparing him by giving him nearly a halfway split of first-team reps in spring practices, and by all accounts, he’s performed well. It’s pretty difficult to predict exactly how Garoppolo will perform, given he has thrown just 27 passes and is entering his second NFL season, but he should be able to fake it well enough for a couple weeks for those looking at a cheap DFS option. He has Rob Gronkowski, after all.

Johnny Manziel (Cle) – Let’s just make this clear: Barring something completely unexpected, the Browns are going to totally stink this year, and if that’s the case, Manziel at some point will take Josh McCown’s spot as the Browns’ starter. Manziel has made a lot of progress in his personal life, by getting into rehab and keeping himself clean after leaving, but he’s now got to catch up on the field. The Browns can say all they want about McCown being their guy, but plans change when a team is piling up losses. If Manziel is putting in work in practice, our call is it’s only a matter of time before he’s playing. Manziel’s play last year was extremely discouraging, but he’s clearly made steps toward improving his life, and hopefully it translates to a productive football career. If he’s on the field and not playing terribly, he’ll have a chance to make a fantasy impact because he’ll be running around quite a bit.

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Running Backs

The Top Options

Montee Ball (Den) – We admittedly liked Ball a lot last year, and at least the success of Ronnie Hillman and especially C.J. Anderson showed why – it was a great offense with great opportunity. Ball’s season was derailed before it began with an emergency appendectomy, and then a groin injury suffered upon return ended up landing him on IR. Now, Ball enters training camp as the clear backup to Anderson in Gary Kubiak’s offense. Kubiak is a friend of fantasy for his very RB1-friendly offenses, so Ball is essentially in the same spot Anderson (who was in this article last year) was in 2014. If healthy, he’s a great fit for Kubiak’s zone-blocking run game and it’s entirely possible that he simply wasn’t healthy for the entire 2014 season. If that’s the case, Ball could start pushing for meaningful carries behind Anderson and would be a must-have handcuff.

Knile Davis (KC) – Davis is the quintessential RB handcuff in that he’s no threat for Jamaal Charles’ job but would be a highly coveted producer in the event of a Charles injury. In addition, Davis has a fairly large role as it is, as Charles’ touches were actually down to about only 16 per game in 2014. Last season, Davis played big-time snaps in Weeks Two and Three with Charles out of commission, averaging 23.9 FPG in those two weeks, and he even racked up 107 yards rushing in Week Four with Charles back. He’s averaged just 3.5 YPC in each of his two NFL seasons, which is pretty bad, but he’s proven himself a viable fill-in if Charles gets hurt.

Jay Ajayi (Mia) – Far more talented than his fifth-round status, Ajayi fell that far in May because of long-term concerns about his surgically repaired knee. That said, most reports suggest there are no real short-term concerns, which could make Ajayi a really appealing fantasy pick behind Lamar Miller, who played well last year but with whom the Dolphins are clearly not enamored. Ajayi should fill in on third downs, as he’s a good receiver, but in this offense would have short-term RB1 potential if Miller were to go down. Miller’s also in a contract year, so if he gives way to Ajayi for meaningful touches and Ajayi performs well it’s not inconceivable the rookie settles into a role that has grabbing 50% of the touches or even more.

DeAngelo Williams (Pit) – Like Jimmy Garoppolo, Williams is (likely) guaranteed starts barring a total suspension reduction for Le’Veon Bell(unlikely). While it may not be the full three-game suspension, Williams should open the year as the Steelers’ top back behind a great offensive line in one of the NFL’s highest-powered offenses. Injuries have slowed Williams, and it’s hard to believe he’s 32 years old. But he still looks good by the eyeball test and he gets a fresh start in Pittsburgh, which is a much better offense and OL. He will almost certainly be a popular FLEX and DFS play for the first week of the season, but we’d point out that his matchups while filling in for Bell (@NE, SF, @STL) don’t look great on paper, although NE and SF have been weakened defensively. For now, most Bell owners will want to secure Williams, and if he plays well, he’ll likely be held on rosters as a valuable handcuff for Bell, who did also finished last year with a pretty bad knee injury. For those who don’t own Bell, Williams could be a valuable trade chip for the Bell owners and/or a solid stash-and-hope option for the back of your roster.

Jerick McKinnon (Min) – McKinnon is explosive enough to rotate in here and there with Adrian Peterson, but his value would skyrocket in the event that Peterson were to go down. Remember, last year McKinnon was the #27 RB with 11.0 FPG from Weeks Four through Thirteen, despite not scoring a single TD over that span, so he can fill a box score. He needs to improve as a receiver and protector, or his frustrating rotation with Matt Asiata will continue, but there’s special ability here that Asiata just completely lacks, and considerable upside if he’s cast into a large role. Asiata can catch the ball and convert short-yardage opportunities on top of the goal, but McKinnon has way more upside in the passing game (he could be used with Peterson as a 3^rd down back), and while he’s likely not a viable lead back from the long-term, he’s way more explosive and dynamic, so he’s the guy we’d look at after Peterson in this backfield.

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Wide Receivers

The Top Options

Justin Hardy (Atl) – Putting Hardy on this list is kind of cheating, considering we expect him to have a pretty significant role as the Falcons’ #3 WR, especially since they still don’t have a reliable TE option on the roster. But his fantasy value would take a huge leap if he were to have to start for Roddy White or Julio Jones, both of whom have missed time in the last couple of years. Remember, Harry Douglas was an 80-catch, 1000-yard receiver in 2013 when the Falcons had problems with both Roddy and Julio hurt. We view Hardy as a ready-to-contribute rookie, so he’s an interesting bench option. The best competition for him are Devin Hester and Leonard Hankerson, so obviously there’s not a huge roadblock to him here.

Phillip Dorsett (Ind) – Our guess is the rookie Dorsett will have at least some sort of role early in his career, but he’s unlikely to reach his fullest potential unless T.Y. Hilton or Andre Johnson were to go down (especially Hilton). Should Dorsett get consistent looks even as the #3 here, he should have a great opportunity for fantasy value in one of the NFL’s most high-powered offenses. Given his big-play nature, he’d be a very popular DFS option as well, as one play would be all he’d need to make value. Dorsett would have the opportunity to show the Colts that they don’t need to re-sign Hilton next off-season, which could be huge for his own earnings potential. On the downside, they do still have Donte Moncrief, who should be more comfortable in his second season and who has serious upside potential as well.

Danny Amendola (NE) – Amendola is an interesting guy for this list because he’s a legitimate handcuff for starter Julian Edelman – the two succeed in similar areas and have similar playstyles. Amendola was a zero for most of 2014, but he came along late in the year and in the playoffs, showing why he’d be a really popular option in the event Edelman were to go down. He’ll make a play here or there as the Patriots’ #3/#4 receiver, but he’s unlikely to do enough to hold down fantasy value independent of Edelman. However, if pressed into action he’d likely produce (as long as he’s healthy) at a level close to Edelman’s due to the great situation, his similar skill set, and most important his two years in the offense and with QB Tom Brady. He’s one of the best pure WR handcuffs in the league.

Cody Latimer (Den) – Latimer’s rookie season was basically a redshirt year, and part of that is on him. We’re told that Latimer was informed that he wouldn’t be very involved in 2014, and he kind of slacked off. There’s not much to evidence to suggest his role will grow significantly from his 2-catch campaign, but Latimer is insistent that he’s dedicated himself to picking up Gary Kubiak’s playbook in a way he failed to do under Adam Gase, and also note that Demaryius Thomas is still holding out from signing his franchise tag. This is a big camp for Latimer to endear himself to the new coaching staff, and he should be very much on the fantasy radar if Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders miss time. The big question is how much value – if any – will he have as the third receiver here? We should get some clarity in the preseason.

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Tight Ends

The Top Options

Niles Paul (Was) – Paul, fresh off getting a three-year deal in March to remain with the team, has rewarded the Redskins by looking more the part of a complete TE. Bigger and stronger, he’s worked at being a better blocker so he can stay on the field more as a receiver. Paul, once Jordan Reed’sinsurance, has a legit shot to win the starting job with Reed a total wild card. Reed continues to have trouble just staying on the field to compete, as he had knee surgery in May. Even if Reed can avoid sitting out much in training camp, Paul should have a chance to win this job and have a chance to build on his 39 catches for 507 yards from last season. For now, he’ll stay on this list, but if Paul pulls into the lead during training camp, he’ll clearly be more than a backup and that might be the case already.

Ladarius Green (SD) – Green has failed to live up to lofty expectations, but with both he and Antonio Gates entering their respective contract years, it’s time for Green to step up, especially with Gates facing a four-game suspension to open the season. OC Frank Reich told Union-Tribune San Diego, “I’d be shocked if he didn’t have his most productive year.” We need to see it to believe it, but the Chargers won’t have much of a choice but to get Green more involved with Gates on the sidelines. It helps to have one of the best QBs in Philip Rivers looking his way, so Green has his best chance ever to prove his worth to the Chargers.

Scott Chandler (NE) – Chandler joins the Patriots after spending the last five years in Buffalo, but now he’ll be the top backup to Rob Gronkowski. Coming into mini-camp, the Patriots had a deep TE group, but they have since parted ways with Tim Wright and Fred Davis, leaving Chandler in a nice spot to be the team’s #2 TE. Obviously, he’s nowhere near as talented as Gronk, but Gronk’s also missed 15 games over the last three seasons with a variety of major injuries. If called upon, Chandler would give the Patriots an experienced, veteran TE to plug in as a starter, and with Tom Brady, Chandler would have legitimate fantasy value. He’s a huge target at 6’7” and is actually fairly underrated as an athlete.

Virgil Green (Den) – The Broncos loved what Green did for them as an in-line run blocker last season, so much so they preferred to have him on the field over the pure receiving talent of Julius Thomas in a lot of key red-zone situations. That’s made them toy with the idea of getting him much more involved as a receiver, something the 6’5”, 255-pound target has the capacity to do. While Owen Daniels comes in with established, productive history working in Gary Kubiak’s offense in Houston, he’s also 32 and has lost more than a few steps, thanks to a variety of leg injuries. Green will get the more overall snaps, but Daniels figures to get more of the targets early. If Green picks up the new offense, he can turn this into more of an even receiving committee soon. He’d have real value if Daniels deals with injuries once again.

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Tuesday, July 14, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #19 (2015's Top Backups)

2015 Top Backups

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