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OFF-SEASON REPORT #16
Published Online, July 6, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
IN THIS ISSUE:
- Off-Season Report #16: 2015's PPR Gold
ONLINE NOW:
- 2015 Rookie Report - 7/6
- Staff/Friends PPR Mock Auction Review - 7/2
- Depth Charts - 7/2
- 2015 Position Battles - 6/30
- 2015 Breakout Receivers - 6/26
- Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
- 2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
- Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
- Everything About Auctions - 6/22
- 2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
- 2015 Season Projections - 6/19
- Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
- 2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
- 2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
- 2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
- 2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
- Depth Charts - 6/8
- 2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
- 2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
- Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
- Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
- TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
- Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
- Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
- 2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
- Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
- 2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
- 2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
- Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
- NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
- Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
- Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
- AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
- Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
- Visualizing Identity - 4/10
- Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
- Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
- 2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
- 2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
- Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
- Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
- Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
- PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
- Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
- Back to Regression - 3/12
- Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
- 2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
- 2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
- SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
- SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
- 2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
- 2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2
UP NEXT:
- Off-Season Report #17: 2015's Contract Year Players - This week
- Off-Season Report #17: 2015's RB Handcuffs - This week
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2015 PPR Gold
Published, 7/6/15
Back in 2013, we switched our site-default scoring system to a points-per-reception (PPR) format. It had been a very popular request the years leading up to the change, and the demand finally became so overwhelming (over two-thirds of our subscriber poll respondents voted for PPR) that we made the change.
Basically, the typical fantasy player feels that “more points = more fun,” and PPR scoring leagues provide more points than non-PPR scoring leagues. We firmly believe that more than 50% of fantasy players now use the PPR system, so they are more cognizant of how a player’s role and effectiveness in the passing game can greatly enhance his value. The purpose of this article is to simply recognize those players whose values are noticeably higher in the PPR format than in standard-scoring leagues.
Note: For instructions on how to create a non-PPR scoring system in less than five seconds, head here.
The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
Running Backs
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
Matt Forte (Chi)
Le’Veon Bell (Pit)
Jamaal Charles (KC)
Arian Foster (Hou)
Obvious PPR Studs
Justin Forsett (Bal) - Forsett was a huge fantasy asset in his first season with the Ravens, playing a true three-down role and contributing explosive plays. But he was likely a worse receiver than you may remember – while he caught 44 passes, his catch rate was barely above average (74.6%) and his YPC average of 6.0 was pretty terrible. But his 59 targets put him 8th among RB1s and that number will rise with new OC Marc Trestman this year. Under Trestman, the Bears were 5th in RB targets and 1st in RB1 targets, and Trestman overall has used his RB1 as much as any other coach in the league. The Ravens don’t have much in their receiving corps, especially when it comes to established talent, and QB Joe Flacco has already referred to Forsett as a major check-down guy. Forsett said in June that he's excited about being used more as a receiver and is making sure his route-running is up to par so he can be ready for when he's called upon in that area while also mentioning that he got his start in the league being a third-down back, picking up blitzes, running screens and routes out of the backfield. WithBuck Allen being his main competition for catches out of the backfield but only a rookie, Forsett has a legit chance to haul in 75+ balls in 2015.
Eddie Lacy (GB) – Last season, Lacy had a couple of big plays with broken tackles in the passing game that boosted his final stats, but realize that all in all, he’s a really good receiver. That makes him an excellent fantasy asset. Lacy posted 42/427/4 on 55 targets (76.4% catch rate), and his 7.76 YPT were just .19 YPT below the league average for wide receivers. The only back with 50 or more targets who outperformed Lacy in this category was Le’Veon Bell. The Packers were 26th in RB targets last season, but Lacy finished 7th in target percentage among RB1s. Lacy gets plenty of credit for being a great runner, but his role in the passing game cannot be understated, and we’d expect more of the same in 2015.
Andre Ellington (Ari) – Ellington battled through multiple injuries last season, but still managed to haul in 46 of 64 targets, putting him at a 71.9% catch rate, which was below the league average (73.7%) for RBs. His 6.1 yards-per-target was also so-so. However, in just 12 games, Ellington was 5th in RB1 targets and the team was 11th in total RB targets. The Cardinals added a similar player in David Johnson via the draft, but Ellington is still expected to lead the way and now that he’s healthy and has some talent in the backfield to prevent him being over-exposed, expectations should still be higher for his role as a receiver. As Bruce Arians told us in 2014, Ellington can play the WR position better than some of their wideouts.
DeMarco Murray (Phi) – Murray was one of the busiest backs in the league last season on the ground and through the air. He earned plenty of praise for carrying such a heavy workload with success on the ground, but he was amazingly efficient through the air, catching 57 of 64 targets (89.1% catch rate) on the year. The Eagles were 18th in RB targets last season, and their RB1, LeSean McCoy, was 17th in terms of RB1 target percentage. With Murray joining Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles in Philadelphia’s backfield, Murray shouldn’t have to be as busy this season, although with the volume in this offense, he’s certainly capable of having another strong season as a receiver.
Giovani Bernard (Cin) – The Bengals struggled early on to figure out how to split touches between Bernard and Jeremy Hill last season, but by the end of the year, it looked like they had finally figured it out. Hill ended up leading the way on the ground, while Bernard settled into more of a change-of-pace role and we should see more of the same in 2015. The team knows their backfield has to lead the offense, but not just via the ground game. In 2014, Bernard caught 43 of 59 targets (tied for 9th), putting him at a 72.9% catch rate. Hill had a respectable 27 catches on 32 targets and the team wound up 15th in RB targets. It’s fair to expect a similar split in targets this year, and if that’s the case, Bernard should be a very good option in PPR formats if he can stay on the field.
Upside PPR Options
4 options included online! Order your 2015 subscription today to access the full article!
Receiving Specialists
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Underrated PPR Options
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Watch List
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
Devonta Freeman (Atl) – The Falcons are rolling with a young backfield combination of Freeman and Tevin Coleman, so we’ll be watching this situation closely throughout training camp, although it looks like Freeman has the edge after off-season workouts. We thought Freeman should have been used more as a rookie, and he certainly proved to be a very reliable receiver with 30 receptions on 38 targets (78.9% catch rate). New OC Kyle Shanahan didn’t feature the RBs in the passing game last year in Cleveland (last in RB targets), but he didn’t have the caliber of talent he has in Freeman and Coleman. Even if Freeman and Coleman end up splitting carries, Freeman is a better natural pass-catcher, which gives him legit value in PPR formats.
Ameer Abdullah (Det) – It’s tough to push Abdullah too hard as a PPR Gold candidate because the team has a capable lead back who can catch in Joique Bell and a receiving specialist in Theo Riddick. However, Abdullah has more natural ability than both of them and is joining a team that led the league in RB targets last season. Bell missed time in off-season workouts with Achilles and knee issues, so Abdullah had a chance to work with the first-team offense, according to the Detroit Free Press. If talent wins out, Abdullah could carve out a significant role at some point with our concern being that he might need 1-2 months before he’s ready to contribute meaningfully.
Travaris Cadet (NE) – Cadet is one of the sneakier PPR options this season, as he joins the Patriots after playing his first three seasons as a complementary back in New Orleans. Cadet has just 11 carries over three seasons, but has proven himself to be a very good receiver, as evidenced by his posting 38/296/1 on 51 targets (74.5% catch rate) last year, despite playing just 18% of the offensive snaps. According to the Boston Globe, Cadet is in the lead for the receiving role in New England’s backfield over James White heading into training camp. New England was 12th in RB targets last season, but just 21st in RB target share. We know dealing with the Patriot backfield is usually awful for fantasy, but Cadet is one to watch because of his specialty role.
Dan Herron (Ind) – Herron’s stock took a hit with the signing of veteran Frank Gore, so his best chance at keeping a somewhat active role in this offense could come in the passing game. Herron had 21/173 on 26 targets last season (plus two huge PPR games in the playoffs) and Gore hasn’t had 30 receptions since 2010 and has had fewer than 20 receptions in three of the last four seasons. We do expect Gore’s reception total to rise considerably this year because Andre Luck will check it down, unlike Colin Kaepernick. However, Gore’s simply not going to get 300+ carries, so there could be some table scraps for Herron as a runner as well. The key will be his role with rookie Josh Robinson in the mix. If Herron’s set to handle most of the touches behind Gore he’ll be a solid fantasy depth option, especially in 14-team PPR leagues.
Wide Receivers
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
Antonio Brown (Pit)
Julio Jones (Atl)
Demaryius Thomas (Den)
Odell Beckham (NYG)
Dez Bryant (Dal)
Jordy Nelson (GB)
Randall Cobb (GB)
A.J. Green (Cin)
Julian Edelman (NE)
Calvin Johnson (Det)
Obvious PPR Studs
Brandin Cooks (NO) – Cooks played like PPR gold last season, racking up 5+ catches in seven of his first 10 games, before breaking his thumb and missing his final six games. He did a lot of his work near the line of scrimmage for Drew Brees, catching 76.8% of his targets (53 of 69), but his average YPT number (7.97) could’ve been much better if the two had connected on a couple of near misses on deep balls. His catch rate should slip some next season, but his YPT could be on the rise because the Saints will feature Cooks more as a deep receiver with Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham out of the mix. As a matter of fact, HC Sean Payton will feature Cooks more all over the field, and he’s going to get as many targets as he can handle this year. Amazingly, if you add up all the targets lost with Graham, Stills, Pierre Thomas, and Travaris Cadet gone, the number is 312. That’s 312 targets gone from this offense and not really replaced by anyone other than C.J. Spiller!
Jarvis Landry (Mia) – Landry emerged as Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target in the second half of his rookie year, and while the Dolphins have some new weapons at receiver, Landry should still be the top target inside. He finished 2014 with 84 catches on 111 targets for an impressive 75.7% catch rate. From Week Nine on when Landry started to see a lot of action, he posted 59/503/4 for 14.7 FPG. Landry is a precise route-runner but doesn’t yet have game-breaking skills, as shown by his 9.0 YPC, but he definitely looks like he could have a career similar to Anquan Boldin or Hines Ward. He’s also a little more explosive with the ball in his hands than those two. Landry ran 77.1% of his routes out of the slot, and Tannehill has shown a propensity to lean on his inside receivers. Landry’s role should continue to grow in his second season in Bill Lazor’s offense, as he played only 70% of the snaps in the second half of last season when he broke out. It’s also worth noting that four of Tannehill’s top-five receivers this year are new to the team – with Landry being the only returning player – plus #1 pick DeVante Parker might be slow off the mark in 2015 given his foot issue. Regardless of the status of others here, Landry looks like PPR gold for years to come, and he looks like a lock for 80+ catches indefinitely.
Emmanuel Sanders (Den) – Saunders immediately clicked with QB Peyton Manning in their first season together, posting 101 catches on 141 targets for a ridiculous 71.6% catch rate. He was just one of four players to hit 100+ catches last season. A more versatile and explosive receiver than Eric Decker, Sanders was a perfect fit opposite Demaryius Thomas. And while Peyton’s Broncos have placed two WRs in the top-12 in PPR FPG each of his three years in Denver, the “Z” receiver is generally far less productive under new HC Gary Kubiak. Obviously, Kubiak has never had Peyton’s nor Sanders’ kind of talent at the Z spot, and for what it’s worth Steve Smith told us in May that he signed in Baltimore because of that Z receiver role. Sanders himself admitted in late May that he’s going to be hard-pressed to duplicate his gaudy ’14 numbers. Denver will be more run-oriented with Kubiak taking over, so Sanders is unlikely to hit triple digits in catches again this year. Still, with Julius Thomas and Wes Welker gone, Sanders remains an 80+ catch guy, and his chemistry with Manning should only improve as he works out of the slot more this season.
Golden Tate (Det) – Tate finished just shy of triple digits in catches in his first season with the Lions, with 99 catches on 143 targets (69.2% catch rate). He certainly proved that another receiver could thrive next to Calvin Johnson in this Lion offense. Tate not only caught plenty of passes, but what he did after the catch also placed him among some of the best WRs in the game. He led all WRs with 691 yards after the catch, and he finished sixth in catches (99) and seventh in yards (1331). Lion WRs dropped just 7 passes last season, which was down from 23 in 2013, and the sure-handed Tate deserves a ton of credit for their more efficient performance. Tate went for 116+ yards in four of the five games that Johnson missed time in, so his stats were inflated because of Calvin’s ankle injuries. Tate was definitely a function of volume last season, ranking 8th in the NFL with 143 targets. If Calvin Johnson is healthy and TE Eric Ebron can step up, we don’t see Tate getting quite as many looks. However, the Lion defense isn’t nearly as good as it was last season, so Matthew Stafford could be forced to throw it a little more this season, and it’s not like Ebron is a lock for 50+ catches nor is it a lock that Calvin played 15-16 games.
DeAndre Hopkins (Hou) – Hopkins surpassed future Hall of Famer Andre Johnson as the Texans’ #1 receiver last season, and he’ll clearly be the focal point of this passing game with Andre gone. Hopkins caught 76 passes on 126 targets (60.3% catch rate), finishing tied for 20th in targets. With Andre’s 145 targets moving to Indy, we should easily see even more volume for DeAndre this season and he has the potential to finish in the top 10 in targets. That’s notable because he has some of the best hands in the NFL (his catch rate wasn’t great because he was such a downfield threat).Hopkins last year took a major step forward to become the #1 WR in Houston, and he doesn’t have major competition for targets heading into the 2015 season. He will have more pressure on him this year, and we do have to worry about this shaky QB situation between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. But the bottom line is Hopkins proved a lot in 2014 and he’ll have more than enough opportunities to catch the ball this season.
Upside PPR Options
5 options included online! Order your 2015 subscription today to access the full article!
Underrated PPR Options
7 options included online! Order your 2015 subscription today to access the full article!
Watch List
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
6 options included online! Order your 2015 subscription today to access the full article!
Tight Ends
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Greg Olsen (Car)
Obvious PPR Studs
Travis Kelce (KC) – Kelce had a great season coming off microfracture surgery, but he should have been used even more, and his efficiency numbers back that notion up. Washington’s Niles Paul was the only fantasy TE to average more YPT (9.94) than Kelce (9.91), and Paul did it on 36 fewer targets (87 for Kelce, 51 for Paul). And Jermaine Gresham was the only fantasy TE inside the top 25 who had a better catch rate (77.5%) than Kelce’s 77%, and Gresham’s YPT (5.75) was more than 4 yards fewer than Kelce’s average. Kelce caught just about everything thrown his way, and he was dynamic after the catch or down the field. Also remember that QB Alex Smith refused to throw the ball downfield, which hurt Kelce’s ability to work the seams, which would’ve boosted his YPT average and his ability to find the endzone. The Chiefs added Jeremy Maclin, but Kelce should be a top target regardless, as he’s the team’s most dynamic receiver. Having a more dynamic #1 WR on the outside should help Kelce, who admitted this off-season that he wasn’t even 100% all of 2014. It’s a very solid spot overall (KC was 9th in TE targets last year), and in 2015 we should finally see the best Kelce has to offer (because we haven’t seen it yet).
Jason Witten (Dal) – He’s coming off his worst fantasy season since 2006 and was only 12th in TE targets (although he could have easily finished in the top-7 with fewer than 10 more targets). But he still finished as the #10 fantasy TE in 2014. Witten actually played his best when it mattered most at the end of the season and in the playoffs, so he wasn’t slowing down. He posted 29/352/1 for 14.0 FPG in the final three regular season games and in their two playoff games. Witten had his lowest number of targets since 2005 with 90, but we’re expecting the Cowboys to have to throw it more than 476 times as they did last season. The RB situation is still in flux with DeMarco Murray gone, so Romo will have to throw it more and Witten remains the #2 passing option behind Dez Bryant. Witten turned 33 in May, so it’s fair to wonder if he’ll start slowing down soon or if he hasn’t already started slowing down, but at least he proved that he’s still Romo’s guy in the middle of the field, and at this point he produces using savvy more than speed. Witten is a lot more reliant on TDs in non-PPR leagues, but we expect him to go down as an excellent value (his early ADP was 125+) in PPR leagues.
Martellus Bennett (Chi) – No TE caught more passes than Bennett last season in what was his best performance to date. Bennett finished above average in both catch rate (72%) and YPT (7.33), despite playing with the inconsistent Jay Cutler. Bennett’s numbers did dip from 74.6%/8.21 in the first half to 69.4%/6.44 in the second half when Cutler’s play started to sharply decline. While Bennett may have been afforded more chances because of injuries to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery last year, he should still be in line for a big role this year with Marshall gone and rookie Kevin White likely taking Marshall’s spot in the startling lineup. We know the team also added Eddie Royal, so there could be a slight dip in targets with lots of options in the offense and more commitment to the run, but Bennett should remain among the most active TEs in the league.
Upside PPR Options
2 options included online! Order your 2015 subscription today to access the full article!
Under-the-Radar PPR Options
5 options included online! Order your 2015 subscription today to access the full article!
Watch List
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
2 options included online! Order your 2015 subscription today to access the full article!
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