Saturday, July 25, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #21 (2015 OL Previews)

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OFF-SEASON REPORT #21
Published Online, July 24, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #21: 2015 OL Previews

ONLINE NOW:

14-Team PPR Mock Review - 7/24
2000-yard college rushers in NFL - 7/22
Offensive ID: Jackson/Bengals - 7/21
Offensive ID: DeFilippo/Browns - 7/21
10-Team Non-PPR Mock Review - 7/21
The Mispricing Manifesto - 7/20
10-Team PPR Mock Review - 7/20
Offensive ID: Shula/Panthers - 7/20
Offensive ID: Roman/Bills - 7/20
2015 TD Vultures - 7/17
Offensive ID: Kubiak/Broncos - 7/17
Offensive ID: Gase/Bears - 7/17
Playing in Two QB Leagues - 7/17
12-Team Non-PPR Mock Review - 7/17
Offensive ID: Kubiak/Broncos - 7/17
Offensive ID: Gase/Bears - 7/17
12-Team PPR Mock Review - 7/16
2015 IDP Top-100 - 7/15
Keeper League Strategies & Tactics - 7/15
In Too Many Leagues - 7/15
General Draft Strategies & Tips - 7/14
Even More Auction Tips - 7/14
2015 Season Projections - 7/13
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 7/9
Hansen: A Newbie's Auction Draft - 7/9
Offensive ID: Arians/Cardinals - 7/9
2015 Target Matrix - 7/9
2015 Contract Year Players - 7/8
Offensive ID: Linehan/Garrett/Cowboys - 7/8
2015 PPR Gold - 7/6
2015 Rookie Report - 7/6
Staff/Friends PPR Mock Auction Review - 7/2
Depth Charts - 7/2
2015 Position Battles - 6/30
2015 Breakout Receivers - 6/26
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
Everything About Auctions - 6/22
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

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2015 Offensive Line Previews

by Lance Zierlein, Special Contributor

Published Online, 7/24/15

About Lance Zierlein: Lance is a draft writer for NFL Media on NFL.com and was solely responsible for over 500 draft profiles assigning strengths, weaknesses and an overall draft grade on the NFL.com site for the 2015 draft.

Lance grew up in a football family and his father, Larry Zierlein, is an offensive line coach, who has coached college and pro football for 35 years. Larry Zierlein has coached the offensive lines for three different NFL teams (including the Super Bowl winning Steelers in 2008-2009) and in 2013 came out of retirement to join the Arizona Cardinals as an assistant offensive line coach.

Zierlein's offensive line evaluations contain proprietary "STATS Ice" data provided by John Pollard who is the general manager of the Sports Solutions Group from STATS. The STATS Ice program is used by a variety of NFL teams for custom analytics, tendency reports and NFL draft and free agency evaluations.

Glossary of terms: Since Lance uses a lot of unfamiliar terms used only in league and coaching circles, here’s a glossary.

Clean Yardage: Clean Yardage measure the yardage a rusher gains per carry before first contact. This metric is used over a larger sample size to help define the amount of running room that is created by the offensive line. Teams with zone-read quarterbacks will often have slightly skewed clean YPC numbers. League Average: 1.84
Explosive Runs: An explosive run is a run of 15+ yards. League Average for Explosive Rush % per carry: 4.8%
Big Runs: Big runs are runs of 10+ yards.
Quality Rush: A quality rush is as follows: 1st Down: rush play achieves greater than or equal to 40% of the yardage necessary for a 1st down. 2nd Down: rush play achieves greater than or equal to 50% of the yardage necessary for a 1st down. 3rd and 4th Down: rush play results in a 1st down. League Average: 46.16%
Stuff: The result of the rush was 0 to negative yards. League Average: 17.88%
Effectiveness Index: Effectiveness Index measures the ability of an offensive line to function as a cohesive, consistent unit in order to create running lanes. In a running game, the unit doing the blocking and ball carrier both have responsibilities, and the Effectiveness Index attempts to separate the two and isolate the performance of the OL specifically. The formula for this index takes into account running games that scheme their way into favorable matchup for the offensive line based on personnel groupings and formations and acknowledges offensive line who work together to produce rushing lanes against defensive fronts that outnumber them.

1. Dallas Cowboys

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Tyron Smith (24), Doug Free (31)

Guards: La’El Collins (22) ®/Ronald Leary (26), Zack Martin (24)

Center: Travis Frederick (24)

Outlook: Some might say the Cowboys offensive line was the only reason DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing last season, while others add that it’s going to make Joseph Randle a fantasy superstar. Others will tell you they are the key to curing all the world’s problems. Kidding aside, it’s an excellentgroup, and if rookie La’El Collins can beat out Ronald Leary to start at LG, only a single player (Doug Free) will be 25 or older. Of their projected starters in 2015, only Free (five missed games) missed significant time last year. Swingman Jermey Parnell cashed in with a free agent deal in Jacksonville, but the additions of Collins and rookie third-round pick Chaz Green should help soften the blow. Collins, a first round talent, fell into Dallas’ laps as an undrafted free agent (he was questioned after an ex-girlfriend’s murder but was not considered a suspect), and his strength is his run blocking ability. Murray is a big loss, but keep in mind that Murray gained an average of 2.5 of his 4.7 YPC before first contact and Randle’s average “clean yards” were even higher, with 2.7 of 6.7 YPC coming before contact. Dallas is going to open running lanes no matter who the running back is, as you can see from those numbers.

2015 Offensive Line Grade: A+

2014 Effectiveness Index: 100

2. New Orleans Saints

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Terron Armstead (24), Zach Strief (32)/Andrus Peat (21) ®

Guards: Tim Lelito (26), Jahri Evans (32)

Center: Max Unger (29)

Outlook: At his best, Sean Payton’s teams have been able to run the football, even with Drew Brees putting up monster numbers year after year. The Saints finally got back into that M.O. last year, and appear to be taking it further for 2015. The Saints were the only team in the NFL to average 4.0 YPC last year running behind every gap and position on the field. As a matter of fact, in almost every offensive line metric I looked at, the Saints matched upwith the highly touted Cowboys’ line. The Saints were tied with the Cowboys for 2^nd in the league in clean yards per carry at 2.3, up from 1.6 in 2013. The Saints averaged 4.8 YPC running to the left behind Terron Armstead and former LG Ben Grubbs, and a whopping 6.3 YPC when running off the left end (hello, C.J. Spiller). All in all, the Saints were #3 in the NFL in my Effectiveness Index, behind just the Cowboys and Ravens. The concern here is that the right side of the Saints’ line is getting older, but Jahri Evans is still mauling people, and rookie Andrus Peat could well provide competition for RT Zach Strief in camp. Another question is if Tim Lelito can provide an adequate replacement for Grubbs at LG. Still, this looks like a fantastic offensive line and a group behind which Spiller and Mark Ingram should find success.

2015 Offensive Line Grade: A

2014 Effectiveness Index: 95

3. Baltimore Ravens

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Eugene Monroe (28), Ricky Wagner (25)

Guards: Kelechi Osemele (26), Marshal Yanda (30)

Center: Jeremy Zuttah (29)

Outlook: The Ravens went from good to bad to good on the offensive line in the span of three years, but I think the good is here to stay for now.Gary Kubiak came in and cleaned up the running game with the Ravens offensive line and rushing attack finishing second in the league in my “Effectiveness Index” metric. LT Eugene Monroe had an effectiveness of 98 and RT Ricky Wagner is fully functional in this run scheme, but the interior line trio of RG Marshal Yanda, LG Kelechi Osemele and C Jeremy Zuttah really helped open up those backside cutback lanes. They also helped improve the clean yardage per carry from an abominable 1.4 in 2013 to a league-leading 2.4 in 2014. While I’m a big fan of the zone scheme fit for this offensive line, I’m a little curious to see if new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman sticks to what worked last year or if he moves to more of a 3-WR approach, which could impact the running game in a negative way. The Raven O-line also did a great job protecting Joe Flacco, giving up only 19 sacks (2^nd fewest) last season.

2015 Offensive Line Grade: A

2014 Effectiveness Index: 98

4. New England Patriots

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Nate Solder (27), Sebastian Vollmer (31)

Guards: Tre’ Jackson ® (22)/Shaq Mason ® (22), Ryan Wendell (29)/Josh Kline (25)/Jordan Devey (27)

Center: Bryan Stork (24)

Outlook: The Patriot offensive line struggled early in 2014, but the unit eventually came together and played well enough for them to capture the title. RT Sebastian Vollmer actually stayed healthy last season and turned in a good campaign. LT Nate Solder had a bit of a down year, and I believe he could struggle again this season, mostly as a pass protector more than as a run blocker. The interior of this offensive line is solid, but not great. Rookie C Bryan Stork improved as the season progressed and should be a much more consistent blocker next to RG Ryan Wendell this season. Don’t let their 3.9 yards per carry fool you. The Patriots offensive line created clean yards before contact for the revolving door of Patriots RBs, and those same backs did a poor job of breaking tackles and creating yards after contact. A whopping 53.8% of their rushing yards came before contact and the Patriot offensive line pulled that off against plenty of 7- and 8- man boxes. With rookie grinders Tre’ Jackson and Shaq Masonbattling for playing time inside, the Patriots are set to continue their physical ways. It’s up to the RBs to do their jobs.

2015 Offensive Line Grade: A

2014 Effectiveness Index: 91.1

5. Cleveland Browns

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Joe Thomas (30), Mitchell Schwartz (26)

Guards: Joel Bitonio (23), John Greco (30)/Cameron Erving ® (23)

Center: Alex Mack (29)

Outlook: If there has ever been a player who had his value to the offensive line more clearly demonstrated by his absence than C Alex Mack last year, then let me know. In the five games Mack started, the Browns dominated on the ground, averaging 146 yards per game and posting 11 explosive runs (15+yards), 8 TDs, and four games with 2.3 clean yards per carry. In the 11 games after Mack’s injury, the Browns managed just 8 explosive runs, 9 TDs, and two games with a 2.3 clean yard average. Mack is back and so is RG Joel Bitonio, who is on his way to becoming an All-Pro quickly as he enters his second season. Bitonio and LT Joe Thomas form one of the best left sides in the league. First round OG/C Cameron Erving has a legitimate shot to win the RG spot from John Greco, which could upgrade the consistency and talent of the right side of the line. RookieDuke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell are much better RBs for this scheme than Terrance West, and Johnson and Crowell could post some eye-popping numbers behind this OL this year if their carry total is high enough.

2015 Offensive Line Grade: B+

2014 Effectiveness Index: 86.6

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Friday, July 17, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #20 (2015's TD Vultures)

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OFF-SEASON REPORT #20
Published Online, July 17, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #20: 2015's TD Vultures

ONLINE NOW:

Playing in Two QB Leagues - 7/17
12-Team Non-PPR Mock Review - 7/17
Offensive ID: Kubiak/Broncos - 7/17
Offensive ID: Gase/Bears - 7/17
12-Team PPR Mock Review - 7/16
2015 IDP Top-100 - 7/15
Keeper League Strategies & Tactics - 7/15
In Too Many Leagues - 7/15
General Draft Strategies & Tips - 7/14
Even More Auction Tips - 7/14
2015 Season Projections - 7/13
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 7/9
Hansen: A Newbie's Auction Draft - 7/9
Offensive ID: Arians/Cardinals - 7/9
2015 Target Matrix - 7/9
2015 Contract Year Players - 7/8
Offensive ID: Linehan/Garrett/Cowboys - 7/8
2015 PPR Gold - 7/6
2015 Rookie Report - 7/6
Staff/Friends PPR Mock Auction Review - 7/2
Depth Charts - 7/2
2015 Position Battles - 6/30
2015 Breakout Receivers - 6/26
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
Everything About Auctions - 6/22
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

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2015 TD Vultures

Published, 7/17/15

Whether you’re in a TD-only league or not, finding the endzone is obviously a key to success in fantasy football, fickle as TDs can be. So while we started putting out this preseason article to appease the TD-only dinosaurs out there (how you guys doing, by the way?), the fact is it’s a worthwhile exercise to examine which players have a little more going for them than most in the scoring department.

For the most part, we’re not going to take up our time and your time by writing about the league’s obvious choices in terms of scoring TDs. You already know who those guys are.

Note: Any reference to “red zone” in this article refers to plays inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, while any reference to “goal line” refers to plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. These numbers can be found in sortable form in our Red Zone Tool.

When a percentage is referenced for QBs and RBs – as in “Andrew Luck was involved on 62% of the Colts’ red-zone plays” – the percentage measures the times the player threw a pass, ran the ball, or was targeted on a team’s red-zone or goal-line plays.

For WRs and TEs, a percentage references to the percentage of the team’s red-zone or goal-line targets that particular player saw, unless specified otherwise.

Quarterbacks

Note: For QBs, we’re focusing on rushing TDs.

Cam Newton (Car) – Unlike last season, Newton comes into 2015 healthy, despite dealing with a variety of issues in 2014. While he’s one of the biggest and best running QBs in the league, his rushing TD totals have dipped each year (14 in 2011, 8 in 2012, 6 in 2013, 5 in 2014), although that’s understandable, since the Panthers have more options than ever in the red zone, including Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, and now, rookieDevin Funchess. Last season, Newton was tied for the most RZ rushes (16) and was involved in 57% of the team’s plays in the RZ. He also led the league in GL attempts with 5 and scored on 3 of those. Expectations for Newton’s rushing numbers shouldn’t be too high entering his fifth season, but they still play a huge part in his fantasy value.

Russell Wilson (Sea) – Wilson’s rushing numbers have jumped in every season and were a major reason why he had his best finish at the QB position last year. He was tied with Andrew Luck and Cam Newton for RZ rushes with 16, but had just 2 GL attempts, although he scored on both. Wilson led all QBs with 6 rushing TDs, 5 of those coming in the red zone, where he was involved in 52% of the team’s plays. While the addition of Jimmy Graham could certainly cut into Wilson’s TD total, especially in the red zone, it’s not like the Seahawks have much else in their offense other than Marshawn Lynch. Even if the Seahawks ramp up their passing attack (Wilson’s passing attempts have risen each season), his legs are still very important to the team, and that’ll keep him in the mix to score 5-6 TDs once again.

Andrew Luck (Ind) – Luck is such a dynamic passer from the pocket that his athleticism outside of the pocket can be underestimated, and that’s because he doesn’t rely on his legs unless he has no other options. Luck had 3 rushing TDs last season, all of which came in the red zone. He was tied with Russell Wilson andCam Newton with 16 red-zone attempts and was involved in 62% of the plays in the red zone. Luck had just a single attempt at the GL, but he didn’t score, and considering how much the Colts have invested in Luck for the future, we don’t have a problem with his backing off runs near the goal. With a bunch of weapons at his disposal, including Frank Gore in the backfield, Luck shouldn’t have to rely on his legs very often, so we’ll continue to consider any rushing TDs a pleasant bonus – but a legitimate bonus they are still.

Colin Kaepernick (SF) – The 49er offense was a mess last season and Kaepernick taking a step back didn’t help at all. While they wanted to ramp up their passing attack, it never really happened, and as a result, Kaepernick wasn’t as effective on the ground. He was second in QB rushes (105), but he scored just 1 rushing TD. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, as he wound up 4^th with 15 RZ attempts and was involved in 61% of the team’s RZ plays. He had just 1 GL attempt, but that could change in 2015 with the exit of Frank Gore. Carlos Hyde takes over for Gore, but he is unproven as a lead back, so the team could lean on Kaepernick a little more as a runner. They’ve added more weapons in the passing game with the signings of Torrey Smith andReggie Bush, and they will make a point of getting Vernon Davis back involved in the offense. Kaepernick’s raw ability and athleticism will always keep him in the mix to score TDs.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Much like Andrew Luck, Rodgers is a threat to do damage with his legs, but doesn’t take off unless he has to, which is prudent to his long-term health. He scored just a pair of rushing TDs last season on 43 attempts after not scoring in an injury-plagued 2013 season. Rodgers averaged 3.6 rushing TDs from 2008-2012, but we’re not surprised to see his rushing numbers dip as he gets older, especially with all the talent around him, including a great back in Eddie Lacy. Rodgers had 9 RZ attempts (t-7^th), and was involved in 62% of the team’s red-zone plays. Rodgers shouldn’t be considered a major threat to score with his legs, but he remains on this list because he’s certainly capable of finding the endzone a few times because of his athleticism.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Geno Smith (NYJ) – Smith finds himself in another QB competition he should win, but that’s not a given after a rocky 2014 campaign. He was 6^th among QBs with 59 rushes, but he had just 1 TD. Ten of those attempts came in the RZ, but he was involved in just 48% of the plays. The Jets added another back in Stevan Ridley and gave Smith a big target in Brandon Marshall, so at least he has a legit group of skill players around him this year, but he still has to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick for the job. If he does or develops a clear lead with a positive training camp, we’ll move him out of the watch list and into the legit vulture list since he’d have a shot to do some damage in OC Chan Gailey’s offense.

Robert Griffin (Was) – It looks like Griffin is the favorite to win the starting job coming out of training camp, but the fact that it’s even in question tells you just how badly his career has trended downward after a great rookie season. In nine games last year, RG3 had 38 rushing attempts, but just 1 TD. Of those attempts, 5 came in the RZ, where he was involved in just 40% of the plays. Injuries have been a major issue for Griffin, and keeping him healthy could be a matter of limiting how much he runs, so his value as a runner is somewhat in flux heading into training camp. We know he’s capable of picking up yardage on the ground, but it’ll be a matter of how much the Redskins call on him to do so, if he wins the starting job.

Tim Tebow (Phi) – We know Tebow isn’t a starting QB in the NFL, but the Eagles are giving him another shot to prove himself, and we wonder if they have a specific plan in place for his unique skillset. Sam Bradford certainly isn’t taking off or putting himself in a position to run the ball coming off yet another ACL injury, but the Eagles could use Tebow in RZ/GL situations, which could result in some vultured TDs away from the likes of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Tebow still has to make the team, but we’re keeping a close eye on this situation, since it could become a headache for fantasy.

Running Backs

Obvious TD hounds: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and Justin Forsett.

DeMarco Murray (Phi) – Murray is coming off a very busy and productive season for the Cowboys, but what does that mean for his future with the Eagles. In 2014, Murray was tied for the most RZ attempts (58), which resulted in 12 TDs, including 17 GL rushes (2^nd) for 9 TDs. He was the most active RB in the red zone, totaling 53% of the team’s red-zone plays. While the Eagles plan to use more than just Murray (Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles) out of their backfield, they also ran more plays than any team in the league, and if you ask HC Chip Kelly, he wants to total even more plays in 2015. While Murray may not get the same volume, he’ll be in an offense that will give him plenty of opportunities, and as we saw with his production last season (league-leading 13 rushing TDs), he can rack up the points if give the chance.

C.J. Anderson (Den) – Anderson appeared in 14 games for the Broncos last season, but didn’t start playing a big role in the offense until Week Ten. That’s why he didn’t finish among the top rushers in the RZ with just 23 attempts and 7 targets, although he was extremely efficient with 7 RZ rushing TDs and 1 RZ receiving TD. Anderson appears to have a stronghold on the starting job coming into 2015 and is a great fit for new OC Gary Kubiak’s offense. It’s always a battle for touches in Denver with guys like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but Julius Thomas is gone, and the team is replacing him with the combination of Owen Daniels/Virgil Green. Even though Peyton Manning is healthier, the team could lean on Anderson a little more, as they did down the stretch last season. It’s a great offense to be a part of, so Anderson has a higher ceiling entering 2015 as the starter.

Mark Ingram (NO) – Other than three games lost to a broken hand, Ingram was a reliable weekly fantasy option for the first time in his career last year, and he could be in an even better situation this year. Despite missing the time, he still found the endzone nine times, while racking up 46 RZ rushing attempts (5^th), despite participating in just 38% of the team’s RZ plays. However, he led the league with 20 GL attempts, and converted 7 of those into TDs. Plus, he had a decent role in the passing game, with 29 receptions on 36 targets. The Saints added C.J. Spiller to the mix, but they traded away their top RZ target in Jimmy Graham, which should give Ingram even more opportunities to score. If healthy, Ingram has a legit chance at double-digit TDs.

Jeremy Hill (Cin) – Hill’s rookie season was a strong one that got better as it went along, so we’re certainly excited about his chances to build on that in 2015. The Bengals took some time figuring out the proper ways to use Hill and Giovani Bernard in tandem, but both players ended up being very active in the red zone. Hill had 36 RZ rushes, which resulted in 7 of his 9 TDs. He was tied for 5^th with 14 GL carries and turned that into 6 TDs. The Bengals are all about featuring their backfield with Hill leading the way, so it’s fair to expect even bigger numbers for him in 2015, especially near the goal line. Considering he’s also a capable receiver (27 receptions on 32 targets in 2014), Hill has a very good chance to rack up double-digit TDs this season.

Carlos Hyde (SF) – Unlike many of the names on this list, there aren’t many strong stats to support Hyde’s inclusion because we’re not sure what to expect of him as the new starter taking over for Frank Gore in San Francisco. The team’s OL is a major question mark, and the offense as a whole is tough to get excited about with Colin Kaepernick at the helm. Still, because of Kaepernick’s struggles, the ground game should be featured once again with Hyde in the spotlight. Gore had 30 RZ carries (19^th) and 5 GL carries (t-37^th), which helped him get 5 TDs as the lead back to Hyde’s 20 RZ carries, 6 GL carries, and 4 TDs as the backup. Hyde doesn’t have major competition for carries, so the job is his to handle, and there should be plenty of touches coming his way in 2015.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Andre Williams (NYG) – Even though he played behind Rashad Jennings for most of the season, the Giants still used Williams more in the RZ (38 carries, 12^th) and he converted that into 6 TDs. Jennings is healthy after battling injuries down the stretch last year, and Shane Vereen has been getting rave reviews in off-season workouts, so while Williams may not have a major role, he should remain busy near the goal, although we’re keeping an eye on this backfield to see just how much the addition of Vereen changes distribution of touches.

David Cobb (Ten) – By cutting veteran Shonn Green in June, the Titans gave a nice endorsement to Cobb, who we already thought had a great chance to lead the team in carries as a rookie. The Titans don’t have a great team, and they’re still trying to figure out just what exactly Bishop Sankey is, so we’re not too excited about Cobb, although he fits the profile of a player who will get the most chances to be considered a decent fantasy option on a bad team. If he wins the starting job outright, we’ll bump his value up a little.

Wide Receivers

Obvious TD hounds: Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Odell Beckham, Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, Julio Jones, A.J. Green.

Alshon Jeffery (Chi) – While former teammate Brandon Marshall was always known as a big red-zone threat, Jeffery had a strong season of his own in 2014. Jeffery was 7^th with 22 RZ targets, which helped him score 7 of his 10 TDs (t-9^th). He was tied for 7^th with 7 GL targets, leading to just 1 TD. With Marshall gone, it could open Jeffery’s RZ role even more, although they still have Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte, and a pair of new additions in veteranEddie Royal and rookie Kevin White. Jeffery is the team’s best receiver entering 2015, and while we don’t have huge expectations for this offense, he should still be a very busy target.

Mike Evans (TB) – Much of Evans’ fantasy value as a rookie relied on TDs, as he was tied for 9^th with 10 scores, but a closer look at his numbers shows why he has a good chance of having another double-digit scoring season, although it might come in a different way. Despite his scoring outburst, Evan was tied for 18^th just 15 RZ targets, 6 of which went for scores. And he had a lone GL target, but of course, that was a TD. Tampa has been weapons in Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but we still expect Evans to have a bigger target share inside the 20, which is why scoring another 10+ TDs should be expected.

Kelvin Benjamin (Car) – Benjamin was another rookie who got a big fantasy boost from his TD total, scoring 9 times in 2014, which was tied for 12^thamong WRs. He did that on 17 RZ targets (t-13^th), although just 3 of those went for TDs. He added 4 GL targets, 1 of which was converted for a score. Benjamin was a bit of a garbage-time hero, and while the points count all the same, we’d like to see him play at a more consistent level. Another year will help him improve, but the Panthers also improved their receiving corps by adding another big target in Devin Funchess to go along with Benjamin and Greg Olsen. With Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart in the mix near the goal line, Carolina has plenty of strong RZ targets. If Benjamin can get a little more involved inside the 20, he won’t need to do as much down the field to replicate his rookie season’s TD total.

Emmanuel Sanders (Den) – When you play on the same team as Demaryius Thomas, RZ targets may seem like they’re hard to come by, especially since Thomas led all WRs with 39, including 6 for TDs. Sanders still managed to rack up 20 RZ targets (t-10^th) and 6 TDs of his own inside the 20. Thomas led the league with 13 GL targets, but Sanders wasn’t that far behind with 6 of his own. So the Broncos return a pair of WRs who ranked in the top-11 in both RZ and GL targets. Sanders scored 9 TDs last year and now doesn’t have to worry about Julius Thomas or Wes Welker, which is why we’ll continue to endorse him as a strong TD candidate.

Jordan Matthews (Phi) – In just his second season, Matthews will start the season as the team’s top producing receiver from 2014. Working primarily out of the slot, he was tied for 15h with 16 RZ targets and 6 TDs. He finished the season tied for 14^th with 8 total TDs. The Eagles will likely feature Matthews in the slot once again, but the next best two options are TE Zach Ertz and rookie WR Nelson Agholor, so Matthews should be in line for an even busier role in the most active offense in football. That’s usually a good recipe for lots of scoring.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Martavis Bryant (Pit) – Bryant’s fantasy value as a rookie was almost totally tied to his TD production, despite playing a part-time role in the rotation of WRs in Pittsburgh behind Antonio Brown. Bryant wound up with just 26 catches on 48 targets, but turned that into 8 TDs (t-14^th). Just 9 of those targets came in the RZ, but 4 of those went for scores. Bryant looks like the favorite to win the #2 job outright and has great size at 6-4, 211 lbs to be a more active contributor in the red zone. Keep an eye on his role in the preseason.

Devin Funchess (Car) – Funchess is an interesting rookie prospect for a Panther receiving corps that has Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, but not much else. Much like Benjamin, Funchess provides Cam Newton with another big target (6’4”, 232) although Funchess also has some versatility, as he played both WR and TE in college. Funchess should have a chance to win a starting job as a rookie, and he could be a tough player to cover working inside or outside. With his great size, Funchess has a chance to be a red-zone threat if he wins the job out of camp.

Tight Ends

Obvious TD hounds: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas.

Travis Kelce (KC) – If you’re going by last year’s numbers, Kelce doesn’t look like a strong candidate to score a bunch of TDs, but we’re expecting a lot more in 2015 because he’s clearly the team’s best match-up nightmare for opponents. While he scored just 5 TDs on 87 targets (t-13^th), he was very efficient. All 5 of his TDs came on just 13 RZ targets, including 2 for 2 at the GL. Other than Jeremy Maclin, the Chiefs don’t have any real threat in their receiving corps, and now that Anthony Fasano is gone, Kelce’s not losing snaps or targets to a lesser player. Kelce enters his second year back from a knee surgery that cost him his entire rookie season, so we’re expecting an even better performance in 2015, especially since he’s proven to be a very dangerous threat on a team that’s begging for productivity out of their passing game.

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen (Ind) – Fleener and Allen both finished the season with 8 TDs, but Fleener’s value wasn’t totally dependant on scoring, whereas Allen didn’t have any fantasy value without TDs. Allen played just 12 games, and his TDs came on 49 targets, including 5 TDs on 9 RZ targets. Fleener had 5 TDs on 13 RZ targets, which made up part of his 8 total TDs on 92 targets. Fleener has proven to be the more reliable player, both in terms of production and health, so we’re certainly favoring him for fantasy, but we can’t forget about Allen as a TD threat, even in an offense that added Andre Johnson and Frank Gore to join T.Y. Hilton.

Martellus Bennett (Chi) – Bennett led all TEs in receptions (90) and was second in targets (124), but he scored just 6 TDs. And it wasn’t for a lack of chances in the red zone, as he finished tied for 2^nd with 21 RZ targets, which is where he scored all of his TDs. He had just 3 GL targets, resulting in a single score. The Bears got rid of a big red-zone threat in Brandon Marshall, but Bennett still has to battle for targets with Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, and Matt Forte. It’s hard to see Bennett have yet another career-year after he’s done so over the last three years, but he should still be busy in the red zone, and that makes him a legit threat to be a TD vulture.

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Watch List: These players could easily be TD vultures in 2015, but we’d like to see how things shake out in training camps before listing them as locks.

Charles Clay (Buf) – Clay turned a back-to-back productive seasons into a bidding war between the Dolphins and Bills, with Buffalo winning the battle. Clay replaces Scott Chandler as the team’s starting TE after a season in which he racked up 20 RZ targets (4^th) of 84 total targets (15^th), although he scored just 3 times. As such an active RZ threat, we expect the Bills to look his way, but we’ll be monitoring any news on his role and how the offense looks, since they’ll want to pound it with LeSean McCoy, and we still have questions about the QB situation.

Owen Daniels/Virgil Green (Den) – With Julius Thomas now in Jacksonville, the Broncos are looking to make up for lost production, which is why they re-signed Green and brought in a veteran of HC Gary Kubiak’s system in Daniels. Daniels could end up starting the season as the top TE in this offense, especially because he knows it, and Green has never done much more than blocking over his four seasons, as evidenced by his scoring just 1 TD on 23 receptions. Playing with Peyton Manning gives a boost to any starter, especially in the red zone for the TEs, so we’ll be watching this TE situation closely throughout training camp and into the season.

Maxx Williams (Bal) – Backing a rookie TE isn’t usually the smartest move for fantasy, but Williams comes to a Raven receiving corps begging for talent. Other than Steve Smith, they don’t have established veterans to fall back on, and Smith will likely line up with another rookie in WR Breshad Perriman. Dennis Pitta’s career is still in doubt after another major hip surgery, so the only player standing in Williams’ way is second-year TECrockett Gillmore, who had just 10/121/1 as a rookie. We know Williams has a lot to learn and the transition for a rookie TE can be tough, but considering the need this team has in their receiving corps and new OC Marc Trestman targeting Martellus Bennett 219 times over his two seasons with the Bears, we can’t ignore Williams’ potential to contribute right away, especially in the red zone.

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Tuesday, July 14, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #19 (2015's Top Backups)

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #19: 2015's Top Backups

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General Draft Strategies & Tips - 7/14
Even More Auction Tips - 7/14
2015 Season Projections - 7/13
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 7/9
Hansen: A Newbie's Auction Draft - 7/9
Offensive ID: Arians/Cardinals - 7/9
2015 Target Matrix - 7/9
2015 Contract Year Players - 7/8
Offensive ID: Linehan/Garrett/Cowboys - 7/8
2015 PPR Gold - 7/6
2015 Rookie Report - 7/6
Staff/Friends PPR Mock Auction Review - 7/2
Depth Charts - 7/2
2015 Position Battles - 6/30
2015 Breakout Receivers - 6/26
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
Everything About Auctions - 6/22
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

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Off-Season Report #20: 20015's TD Vultures

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2015 Top Backups

Published, 7/14/15

In today’s specialized NFL that includes multiple RB, WR, and TE packages, it’s particularly hard to isolate those players who are clear backups and not simply complementary players. This article will try to highlight those players and detail why they have a chance to contribute if forced into the starting lineup.

There will always be players on our top backups list who wind up doing diddlysquat because we are trying to isolate low-end players with some legit upside, but you have to remember that almost all of these players need some help to make an impact. Yet it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a clear understanding of the league’s top backups. As we see year after year, players rise up their team’s depth charts during the season and help for fantasy.

As for our criteria for listing and ranking the following backups, we’re looking at a few factors: the starter’s injury history, the backup’s own ability to produce, his supporting cast, and also the possibility that the player in front of him on the depth chart has some non-injury issues.

There were some major home runs in this article last year, first published in early July – C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett, Matt Asiata, Andre Williams,Latavius Murray, Martavis Bryant, Charles Johnson, John Brown, Allen Hurns, and Owen Daniels were among the players listed. Among those players, we had some with legit season-long value, some with excellent short-term value, and a couple of players who could have filled in for a week or two for injuries/byes, or guys who turned out to be excellent cheap DFS plays.

So as you can see, profiling the league’s top back-up players is a worthwhile endeavor, if for no other reason than to isolate players whose situations are worth keeping an eye on during the season. And that’s the key word for this article – situation.

Note: For brevity’s sake, we tried to ignore players who are projected to contribute in a significant rotational role or are currently given a decent shot of winning a starting job in camp. This article is strictly for players we view as clear backups and the players are listed in order of their chances of getting on the field, as well as their ability to produce if they do.

Quarterbacks

The Top Options

Mark Sanchez (Phi) – How simple is this one? Sanchez did start games with the Eagles last year, and while his overall play wasn’t markedly better than his days with the Jets, he was very relevant for fantasy – he ranked #12 among QBs over his nine appearances at 21.3 FPG, and if you count just his eight starts, he was #10 at 21.6 FPG over the second half of the year, falling below 20 FP in our site-default scoring system just once in eight starts. He’s in the same offense this year, but now he’s behind Sam Bradford, who has two torn ACLs in as many seasons. Sanchez will be valued as a handcuff for Bradford in best-ball and two-QB leagues, and he’s already proven that he can put up numbers under Chip Kelly, even if he turns the ball over too much. Sanchez has been commiserating and working with some of his key receivers this summer, and that’s a wise move on his part because it’s certainly possible that Bradford isn’t ready for Week 1. It would cost two roster spots, but owning the Sanchez-Bradford combo should net fantasy owners 30 TDs total in 2015.

Jimmy Garoppolo (NE) – Garoppolo is probably the only guy on this list who could outright guaranteed to start games, barring a complete eradication ofTom Brady’s four-game suspension (it is very possible Brady doesn’t miss a game in 2015). The Patriots have been preparing him by giving him nearly a halfway split of first-team reps in spring practices, and by all accounts, he’s performed well. It’s pretty difficult to predict exactly how Garoppolo will perform, given he has thrown just 27 passes and is entering his second NFL season, but he should be able to fake it well enough for a couple weeks for those looking at a cheap DFS option. He has Rob Gronkowski, after all.

Johnny Manziel (Cle) – Let’s just make this clear: Barring something completely unexpected, the Browns are going to totally stink this year, and if that’s the case, Manziel at some point will take Josh McCown’s spot as the Browns’ starter. Manziel has made a lot of progress in his personal life, by getting into rehab and keeping himself clean after leaving, but he’s now got to catch up on the field. The Browns can say all they want about McCown being their guy, but plans change when a team is piling up losses. If Manziel is putting in work in practice, our call is it’s only a matter of time before he’s playing. Manziel’s play last year was extremely discouraging, but he’s clearly made steps toward improving his life, and hopefully it translates to a productive football career. If he’s on the field and not playing terribly, he’ll have a chance to make a fantasy impact because he’ll be running around quite a bit.

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Running Backs

The Top Options

Montee Ball (Den) – We admittedly liked Ball a lot last year, and at least the success of Ronnie Hillman and especially C.J. Anderson showed why – it was a great offense with great opportunity. Ball’s season was derailed before it began with an emergency appendectomy, and then a groin injury suffered upon return ended up landing him on IR. Now, Ball enters training camp as the clear backup to Anderson in Gary Kubiak’s offense. Kubiak is a friend of fantasy for his very RB1-friendly offenses, so Ball is essentially in the same spot Anderson (who was in this article last year) was in 2014. If healthy, he’s a great fit for Kubiak’s zone-blocking run game and it’s entirely possible that he simply wasn’t healthy for the entire 2014 season. If that’s the case, Ball could start pushing for meaningful carries behind Anderson and would be a must-have handcuff.

Knile Davis (KC) – Davis is the quintessential RB handcuff in that he’s no threat for Jamaal Charles’ job but would be a highly coveted producer in the event of a Charles injury. In addition, Davis has a fairly large role as it is, as Charles’ touches were actually down to about only 16 per game in 2014. Last season, Davis played big-time snaps in Weeks Two and Three with Charles out of commission, averaging 23.9 FPG in those two weeks, and he even racked up 107 yards rushing in Week Four with Charles back. He’s averaged just 3.5 YPC in each of his two NFL seasons, which is pretty bad, but he’s proven himself a viable fill-in if Charles gets hurt.

Jay Ajayi (Mia) – Far more talented than his fifth-round status, Ajayi fell that far in May because of long-term concerns about his surgically repaired knee. That said, most reports suggest there are no real short-term concerns, which could make Ajayi a really appealing fantasy pick behind Lamar Miller, who played well last year but with whom the Dolphins are clearly not enamored. Ajayi should fill in on third downs, as he’s a good receiver, but in this offense would have short-term RB1 potential if Miller were to go down. Miller’s also in a contract year, so if he gives way to Ajayi for meaningful touches and Ajayi performs well it’s not inconceivable the rookie settles into a role that has grabbing 50% of the touches or even more.

DeAngelo Williams (Pit) – Like Jimmy Garoppolo, Williams is (likely) guaranteed starts barring a total suspension reduction for Le’Veon Bell(unlikely). While it may not be the full three-game suspension, Williams should open the year as the Steelers’ top back behind a great offensive line in one of the NFL’s highest-powered offenses. Injuries have slowed Williams, and it’s hard to believe he’s 32 years old. But he still looks good by the eyeball test and he gets a fresh start in Pittsburgh, which is a much better offense and OL. He will almost certainly be a popular FLEX and DFS play for the first week of the season, but we’d point out that his matchups while filling in for Bell (@NE, SF, @STL) don’t look great on paper, although NE and SF have been weakened defensively. For now, most Bell owners will want to secure Williams, and if he plays well, he’ll likely be held on rosters as a valuable handcuff for Bell, who did also finished last year with a pretty bad knee injury. For those who don’t own Bell, Williams could be a valuable trade chip for the Bell owners and/or a solid stash-and-hope option for the back of your roster.

Jerick McKinnon (Min) – McKinnon is explosive enough to rotate in here and there with Adrian Peterson, but his value would skyrocket in the event that Peterson were to go down. Remember, last year McKinnon was the #27 RB with 11.0 FPG from Weeks Four through Thirteen, despite not scoring a single TD over that span, so he can fill a box score. He needs to improve as a receiver and protector, or his frustrating rotation with Matt Asiata will continue, but there’s special ability here that Asiata just completely lacks, and considerable upside if he’s cast into a large role. Asiata can catch the ball and convert short-yardage opportunities on top of the goal, but McKinnon has way more upside in the passing game (he could be used with Peterson as a 3^rd down back), and while he’s likely not a viable lead back from the long-term, he’s way more explosive and dynamic, so he’s the guy we’d look at after Peterson in this backfield.

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Wide Receivers

The Top Options

Justin Hardy (Atl) – Putting Hardy on this list is kind of cheating, considering we expect him to have a pretty significant role as the Falcons’ #3 WR, especially since they still don’t have a reliable TE option on the roster. But his fantasy value would take a huge leap if he were to have to start for Roddy White or Julio Jones, both of whom have missed time in the last couple of years. Remember, Harry Douglas was an 80-catch, 1000-yard receiver in 2013 when the Falcons had problems with both Roddy and Julio hurt. We view Hardy as a ready-to-contribute rookie, so he’s an interesting bench option. The best competition for him are Devin Hester and Leonard Hankerson, so obviously there’s not a huge roadblock to him here.

Phillip Dorsett (Ind) – Our guess is the rookie Dorsett will have at least some sort of role early in his career, but he’s unlikely to reach his fullest potential unless T.Y. Hilton or Andre Johnson were to go down (especially Hilton). Should Dorsett get consistent looks even as the #3 here, he should have a great opportunity for fantasy value in one of the NFL’s most high-powered offenses. Given his big-play nature, he’d be a very popular DFS option as well, as one play would be all he’d need to make value. Dorsett would have the opportunity to show the Colts that they don’t need to re-sign Hilton next off-season, which could be huge for his own earnings potential. On the downside, they do still have Donte Moncrief, who should be more comfortable in his second season and who has serious upside potential as well.

Danny Amendola (NE) – Amendola is an interesting guy for this list because he’s a legitimate handcuff for starter Julian Edelman – the two succeed in similar areas and have similar playstyles. Amendola was a zero for most of 2014, but he came along late in the year and in the playoffs, showing why he’d be a really popular option in the event Edelman were to go down. He’ll make a play here or there as the Patriots’ #3/#4 receiver, but he’s unlikely to do enough to hold down fantasy value independent of Edelman. However, if pressed into action he’d likely produce (as long as he’s healthy) at a level close to Edelman’s due to the great situation, his similar skill set, and most important his two years in the offense and with QB Tom Brady. He’s one of the best pure WR handcuffs in the league.

Cody Latimer (Den) – Latimer’s rookie season was basically a redshirt year, and part of that is on him. We’re told that Latimer was informed that he wouldn’t be very involved in 2014, and he kind of slacked off. There’s not much to evidence to suggest his role will grow significantly from his 2-catch campaign, but Latimer is insistent that he’s dedicated himself to picking up Gary Kubiak’s playbook in a way he failed to do under Adam Gase, and also note that Demaryius Thomas is still holding out from signing his franchise tag. This is a big camp for Latimer to endear himself to the new coaching staff, and he should be very much on the fantasy radar if Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders miss time. The big question is how much value – if any – will he have as the third receiver here? We should get some clarity in the preseason.

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Tight Ends

The Top Options

Niles Paul (Was) – Paul, fresh off getting a three-year deal in March to remain with the team, has rewarded the Redskins by looking more the part of a complete TE. Bigger and stronger, he’s worked at being a better blocker so he can stay on the field more as a receiver. Paul, once Jordan Reed’sinsurance, has a legit shot to win the starting job with Reed a total wild card. Reed continues to have trouble just staying on the field to compete, as he had knee surgery in May. Even if Reed can avoid sitting out much in training camp, Paul should have a chance to win this job and have a chance to build on his 39 catches for 507 yards from last season. For now, he’ll stay on this list, but if Paul pulls into the lead during training camp, he’ll clearly be more than a backup and that might be the case already.

Ladarius Green (SD) – Green has failed to live up to lofty expectations, but with both he and Antonio Gates entering their respective contract years, it’s time for Green to step up, especially with Gates facing a four-game suspension to open the season. OC Frank Reich told Union-Tribune San Diego, “I’d be shocked if he didn’t have his most productive year.” We need to see it to believe it, but the Chargers won’t have much of a choice but to get Green more involved with Gates on the sidelines. It helps to have one of the best QBs in Philip Rivers looking his way, so Green has his best chance ever to prove his worth to the Chargers.

Scott Chandler (NE) – Chandler joins the Patriots after spending the last five years in Buffalo, but now he’ll be the top backup to Rob Gronkowski. Coming into mini-camp, the Patriots had a deep TE group, but they have since parted ways with Tim Wright and Fred Davis, leaving Chandler in a nice spot to be the team’s #2 TE. Obviously, he’s nowhere near as talented as Gronk, but Gronk’s also missed 15 games over the last three seasons with a variety of major injuries. If called upon, Chandler would give the Patriots an experienced, veteran TE to plug in as a starter, and with Tom Brady, Chandler would have legitimate fantasy value. He’s a huge target at 6’7” and is actually fairly underrated as an athlete.

Virgil Green (Den) – The Broncos loved what Green did for them as an in-line run blocker last season, so much so they preferred to have him on the field over the pure receiving talent of Julius Thomas in a lot of key red-zone situations. That’s made them toy with the idea of getting him much more involved as a receiver, something the 6’5”, 255-pound target has the capacity to do. While Owen Daniels comes in with established, productive history working in Gary Kubiak’s offense in Houston, he’s also 32 and has lost more than a few steps, thanks to a variety of leg injuries. Green will get the more overall snaps, but Daniels figures to get more of the targets early. If Green picks up the new offense, he can turn this into more of an even receiving committee soon. He’d have real value if Daniels deals with injuries once again.

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