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OFF-SEASON REPORT #14
Published Online, June 26, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #14: 2015's Breakout Receivers - 6/26

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Rookie Report - 6/26
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/26
2015 IDP Top-100 - 6/24
Auction Strategies, Guidelines, & Tips - 6/22
Everything About Auctions - 6/22
2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

Off-Season Report #15: 2015's Position Battles - Next week
Off-Season Report #16: 2015's PPR Gold - Next week

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2015 Breakout Receivers

Published, 6/26/15

We say it every year in this article, but respected people around the NFL, including our friend and SiriusXM colleague Gil Brandt, insist that receiver is the hardest position to pick up and play immediately in the entire league, outside of quarterback. Last year’s rookie class at the position is going to challenge that – after all, eight rookie WRs finished in the top 40 in PPR FPG in 2014, after only one (Keenan Allen) did it in 2013.

But Allen’s struggles in his second season in 2014 show just how tough playing in this league is, even with an elite QB. Additionally, the new focus on exploiting mismatches at the TE position has made the once thankless job of a blocker who makes the occasional catch one of the flashiest playmakers in the entire league. But it took even phenomenal talents Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham one year each to truly make historic impacts.

So this article, which we’ve been publishing for over 15 years now, details those WRs and TEs who are entering their second and third seasons and could possibly take the next “leap” toward superstardom. Obviously, we’ll start up top with the usual suspects. But because players like Victor Cruz and Danny Amendola have come out of nowhere in the past, we felt it important to dig deep and examine the situations for a great number of talented youngsters, even if their current predicaments seem impossible to overcome.

Of course, we’ve never been accused of being succinct, and a ton of these blurbs will be utterly useless for those who aren’t complete sponges for every bit of information. So this year, we’re also including at the top of the article a list of our favorite young break-out options at both WR at TE. More information, if you desire, is below, where we detail just why we love these players this year.

Top WR Breakout Candidates

Brandin Cooks (NO, 2^nd year)
Jordan Matthews (Phi, 2^nd year)
Martavis Bryant (Pit, 2^nd year)

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Top TE Breakout Candidates

Travis Kelce (KC, 3^rd year)
Zach Ertz (Phi, 3^rd year)
Tyler Eifert (Cin, 3^rd year)

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Second-Year WRs

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

Odell Beckham (NYG, 12^th pick) – Beckham was the rare rookie to dominate the league in his first year, and he did it despite missing the first four games of the year with a torn left hamstring injury. He led fantasy WRs in FPG (24.8) and finished seventh at the position in total fantasy points. He averaged an absurd 36.6 FPG in the final four games of the year, carrying a lot of fantasy players to championships. ODB’s hamstrings seem to be the only major concern heading into the year, as he sat out OTAs with tightness in his right hamstring. A potentially healthy Victor Cruz could also cut into ODB’s production a little bit. It would be absurd to expect the same type of production from Beckham in his sophomore season, but we also aren’t expecting a big drop off.

Mike Evans (TB, 7^th pick) – Evans was a touchdown machine as a rookie. He had only three 100-yard games - all in a stretch from Weeks Nine through Eleven - but his TDs kept his fantasy value afloat. Evans was more inconsistent than you’d like from a top fantasy receiver, posting six games of fewer than 10 FP in a PPR. Still, he was a rookie playing in an unstable passing game. What’s amazing is that Evans really didn’t get a ton of TD opportunities. Among players with 10+ receiving TDs, only Jeremy Maclin (13) saw fewer red-zone targets than Evans. And despite being 6’5”, Evans had just one target in a goal-line situation, something you’d expect to rise in the future. It’s very reasonable that Evans could come close to his 2014 TD production, and it won’t hurt to have more stability at QB with rookie Jameis Winston.

Kelvin Benjamin (Car, 28^th pick) – Benjamin finished behind only Odell Beckham and Mike Evans among rookie WRs, but Kelvin wasn’t very efficient and still needs major work with his route running and on his hands. He was able to produce because of his great size and wingspan, and if he can become more consistent this year, he’ll have a great chance to at least duplicate 2014’s strong production. However, Cam Newton will always be an erratic passer, and they did add another huge receiver with a large catch radius in Devin Funchess. Benjamin may not get the 9 targets a game that he received last year, so he’ll have to play more efficiently to duplicate his 2014 numbers. He’s someone to watch closely in August, since he had kind of a rough off-season with two nagging hamstrings and some extra weight on his frame. The team expects to be ready to go for training camp, so we’ll see what kind of shape he’s in this August.

Sammy Watkins (Buf, 4^th pick) – Watkins would’ve been the top rookie WR in a lot of other years, but the 2014 WR class was one of the rare exceptions. We like to target any elite talent coming off a disappointing campaign, and Watkins fits the bill this year. Injuries were a problem for the smaller Watkins, but his biggest issue was QB play, as evidenced by his poor 51.2% catch rate. That rate shows there’s room for improvement, but it’s hard to say his QB situation is significantly improved this year with Matt Cassel, plus Rex Ryan and the Bills will look to win with defense and their running game. Watkins is a special talent with elite game-breaking talent, and he could just be tapping into his fantasy potential, but his upside appears to be fairly limited on this team in 2015.

Legit breakout candidates:

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Have a chance:

Donte Moncrief (Ind, 90^th pick) – The Andre Johnson signing this off-season put a major crimp into Moncrief’s fantasy potential this season. He’ll be forced to battle Phillip Dorsett for #3 WR snaps in an offense that likes to run a lot of 2-TE sets. Moncrief has a chance for more snaps later in the year if his star continues to rise and Johnson’s continues to fade, but Johnson does look like he has another 1-2 strong years left in the tank. Moncrief is still a playmaker in a great offense, and there’s a chance that the planets align for him and he maximizes on the opportunities that he gets.

Josh Huff (Phi, 86^th pick) – Huff can play inside or outside, which will help him get on the field, but he’ll start out 2015 behind at least Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor. With Matthews likely to see the majority of his snaps in the slot again, it wouldn’t be shocking if Huff and Agholor were the Eagles’ two primary perimeter WRs this year. Huff has some explosive ability, and he knows the offense having worked with HC Chip Kelly at Oregon. Huff is someone to keep an eye on, especially if Agholor struggles with the jump to the pros, but he could also eventually play over Riley Cooper.

Albert Wilson (KC, UDFA) – Wilson started to emerge a bit at the end of 2014, so he’ll have a slight leg up on rookie Chris Conley for the starting job across fromJeremy Maclin. Wilson would ideally be cast as their slot receiver, but he’ll face competition for that role from Andy Reid favorite Jason Avant. Wilson’s fantasy value will be hanging in the balance as he battles for the #2 WR job in training camp.

Taylor Gabriel (Cle, UDFA) – Gabriel did a very nice job in his rookie campaign and flashed some playmaking ability with his speed, averaging nearly 17 yards a catch (16.7). Veteran Josh McCown does have a nice arm, and they are thin at WR, but Gabriel still needs to secure a prominent role in the offense. He’s a young player with big-play potential, and he’s coming off an impressive showing at OTAs. There’s no reason Gabriel shouldn’t be used as their deep threat next to the likes of Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline.

Philly Brown (Car, UDFA) – The Panthers love Brown and he should be their deep threat once again in 2015, as long as he can hold off Ted Ginn. The Panthers have done a nice job adding size to their receiving corps for QB Cam Newton the last two seasons, but they still need speed, which Brown provides. He’s reportedly improved as a route runner and developed some chemistry with Cam this off-season. Brown isn’t a true burner or stud, and he’s unlikely to be a consistent fantasy option, but he should go off for a couple big games at some point this year.

Allen Hurns (Jac, UDFA) – Hurns played the most out of the Jag WRs last year simply because he stayed healthy, and he played the majority of his snaps out of the slot. With his former college OC gone, he’ll have to beat outRashad Greene for the slot role, which could be tough as Greene is pretty polished from that spot for a rookie. Hurns dropped some potential big plays last year, but he also made several of them, but he’ll need to become a diverse receiver to break out. This is also not the same offense that he was familiar with heading into his rookie 2014 campaign, so he’ll need to prove worthy of snaps and targets.

Bruce Ellington (SF, 106^th pick) – Ellington flashed a couple times late in his rookie year in limited chances, and he should get the chance to take overStevie Johnson’s old role. Ellington will battle with Quinton Patton during training camp for the #3 WR spot, but that won’t likely result in consistent fantasy digits. Things could change if there’s an injury and he has a chance to ascend in his second season, but he’s merely a name to monitor in the preseason and during the regular season.

Robert Herron (TB, 185^th pick) – The Bucs would love for a slot receiver to emerge as a #3 WR behind their two twin towers on the outside, and Herron is the guy to watch. But OC Dirk Koetter could use Vincent Jackson inside at times this year, so Herron could lose out to Louis Murphy for snaps on the outside. Herron is not fully on the fantasy radar yet, but he is a player to keep an eye on in camp.

De’Anthony Thomas (KC, 124^th pick) – The Chiefs moved Thomas from RB to WR, but he’s really a satellite player without a real position. Thomas’ primary role will be as a returner, but HC Andy Reid will still manufacture a couple touches for him every week. Thomas is likely to be a more useful real life player than he is a fantasy player, but his role could always expand if he’s making plays in the offense.

Paul Richardson (Sea, 45^th pick) – We can’t expect much from Richardson this season after his ACL tear in January, and his best-case scenario might be a mid- to late-season cameo as a situational deep threat. We’ll have to see just how much practice time he’s getting in training camp. The good news is that the Seahawks aren’t teeming with depth at WR, so he could get an immediate role when completely healthy.

T.J. Jones (Det, 189^th pick) – Jones never took the field during his rookie season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He experienced nerve issues after the surgery, which slowed his recovery, and the Lions decided not to activate him off the PUP list in December after a few weeks of practice. The Lions are still extremely thin at WR behind Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, so Jones should get a chance to show he’s healthy in training camp and to earn some playing time out of the slot in 3-WR situations. However, he was not exactly on the radar during their OTAs and minicamps, with veteran Lance Moore (who knows the offense well) on the roster and with Corey Fuller excelling. To date, Jones has been just a great fit here on paper and nothing else.

Brandon Coleman (NO, UDFA) – Marques Colston told our Greg Cosell in the spring to watch out for the former Rutgers wideout and that he could help this offense with the loss of Jimmy Graham while playing a similar role to Colston. Coleman is also a big body who doesn’t run fast (he’s a former TE). Coleman will likely battle Nick Toon, Josh Morgan, and Seantavius Jones for snaps this year behind Colston and Brandin Cooks.

Well, they are second-year receivers:

Jeff Janis (GB, 236^th pick) – Janis got plenty of reps with the first-team offense during OTAs with Jordy Nelson recovering from hip surgery. HC Mike McCarthy praised Janis’ progress from his rookie season and said that the young WR was ready to play by the end of last season. He looks to have the early lead for the #4 WR job, and he could be a Nelson handcuff because of his athleticism and good size at 6’3”, 219 pounds. He’s a legit dynasty league sleeper right now, since Jordy can’t play forever and is already 30 years old.

Seantavius Jones (NO, UDFA) – Jones didn’t see the field in 2014, but he’s been on their radar and will be battling for time this season with Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham gone. The Saints didn’t draft a WR, so they could be giving Jones, Brandon Coleman, Nick Toon, and Josh Morganchances to play this year in this wide-open battle behind Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston. This is a camp competition to keep your eyes on in August.

Michael Campanaro (Bal, 218^th pick) – Campanaro played just four games in 2014, juggling between being a healthy scratch and missing time with hamstring and thigh injuries. Campanaro had 7/102/1 receiving on 9 targets, and he also made 4 catches in the Ravens’ playoff loss to the Patriots. He could have a role out of the slot this season in a still-thin receiving corps, and he could also handle kick-return duties with Jacoby Jones gone. But he needs to stay healthy (he’s already dealing with a slight tear in his quad) and he’ll have to beat out Kamar Aiken for snaps, plus UDFA DeAndre Carteropened some eyes in the OTAs and minicamps.

James Wright (Cin, 239^th pick) – Wright actually had a small role as a WR in Week Thirteen last year when the Bengals were ravaged by WR injuries. He finished the year with 5/91 receiving and 3/30 rushing in 11 games before a knee injury knocked him out for the last month of the season. OC Hue Jackson used Wright all over the field in OTAs, and he has a chance to win the #4 WR job this season.

Corey Washington (NYG, UDFA) – The Giants are pretty loaded at WR and the talented Washington will have a tough time cracking the lineup, especially if Victor Cruz is healthy for Week One. Washington is an imposing cover on the outside at 6’4”, 214 pounds, and he could bring a dimension to this offense that they don’t have. He’s the kind of athlete who could put it all together and be a force in the league, so keep an eye on him in camp.

Devin Street (Dal, 146^th pick) – Street worked as a starter on the outside during OTAs with Dez Bryant skipping the workouts. Street didn’t do much in 16 games last season, catching just 2/18 in very limited playing time. Street isn’t a great athlete, but he does have good size (6’3”, 200 pounds) and strong hands to be a possession receiver. Street could potentially have some fantasy value early in the year if Dez is indeed serious about potentially holding out, although we’re not buying it just yet. But there’s no question they are thin at WR heading into 2015.

Ryan Grant (Was, 142^nd pick) – Grant saw action in 16 games last season, but he played just 187 snaps and posted only 7/68. He couldn’t beat outAndre Roberts for more playing time, and the Redskins also brought in the more dynamic Jamison Crowder to potentially work the slot. Grant will need to impress to mine a role in this shaky passing game, but he’s done pretty well overall when he’s had chances so far (mainly in the 2014 preseason).

Jalen Saunders (NO, 104^th pick) – The Jets cut Saunders out of training camp last season and after a stint on the Seahawk practice squad, the Saints picked him up to take Brandin Cooks’ roster spot. Saunders caught just a single pass, and he did a little bit of work as a returner. The Saints aren’t very deep at WR any longer, but Saunders will still have to earn his stripes on special teams as a return man.

Kevin Norwood (Sea, 123^rd pick) – Norwood caught just 9/102 in nine games last season, and he fell behind the likes of Ricardo Lockette and Bryan Walters by the end of the year. The Seahawks don’t have any elite options at WR, but they do have a lot of average bodies for Norwood to get through. At least the Paul Richardson knee injury should open up some playing time early in the year, but those snaps could go to better vertical threats than Norwood.

Jared Abbrederis (GB, 176^th pick) – Abbrederis tore his right ACL early in camp last season, but he was back at OTAs this summer. He’s got a lot of work to do to potentially crack this 53-man roster, as they also have Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis in the mix behind their top-3 WRs. Abbrederis is an intriguing and sizable slot receiver, but he needs to be operating at 100% to have a chance to make this roster.

Walter Powell (NYJ, 196^th pick) – The Cardinals cut Powell before the season, but Powell got some work with the Jets in 2014 thanks to his work in the return game, but he failed to make a catch. Powell actually made some news by beating Darrelle Revis for a 70-yard TD from Geno Smith during OTAs in June. We’ll see if Powell can actually make some noise in pads during the preseason to make this 53-man roster.

Shaq Evans (NYJ, 115^th pick) – Evans landed on the injured reserve in training camp because of a shoulder injury, but he wasn’t exactly impressing anyone before that with a number of dropped passes. Evans reportedly performed well during OTAs, but the Jet WR landscape will be a little more difficult to navigate with Brandon Marshall and Devin Smith added.

Matt Hazel (Mia, 190^th pick) – It looked for a minute this off-season that Hazel could get a legit shot at playing time this year. Then the Dolphins brought in Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings, and DeVante Parker, so Hazel will have his hands full making an impression in camp.

Quincy Enunwa (NYJ, 209^th pick) – Enunwa spent almost the entire season on the Jets practice squad, getting the call up in the season finale of the 2014 season. He’s a size/speed prospect who needs time to develop, and Enunwa has an outside shot at grabbing the last WR spot if his ability starts to shine through in training camp.

Tevin Reese (Cin, 240^th pick) – Reese comes in a small package (5’10”, 170 pounds), but he can absolutely fly. Still, he’s yet to show that speed in game action after the Chargers cut him last August and the Bengals picked him up. He’ll be a long shot to make this roster out of camp, and his best-case scenario is to contribute as a situational deep threat or as a returner.

Second-Year TEs

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

None of Note.

Legit breakout candidates:

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, 38^th pick) – Seferian-Jenkins didn’t have a great rookie year, but he was the team’s best TE and will get a chance to build on that in 2015. Foot and back injuries cost him seven games last year, but he actually still managed to be more productive on a per-game basis than any other rookie TE (which is not saying much). The Bucs threw only 78 passes to TEs last season and now Tim Wright is back, but new OC Dirk Koetter uses his TEs often and rookie QB Jameis Winston threw to his TEs in college, so ASJ has a chance to break out in 2015.

Eric Ebron (Det, 10^th pick) – Rookie struggles hit Ebron hard, and while we usually give rookie TEs a pass, it was hard to find anything good about Ebron’s first season. He struggled to pick up the nuances of the pro game and played slower than someone of his talent should have last year. His hands let him down far too often, and it just seemed like everything was a little too much for him to handle as a rookie. Ebron’s head was swimming as a rookie, but he’s more than talented enough to make a big leap this season in a TE-friendly offense and in a good situation with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. And although he continued to drop some easy balls in the off-season workouts, we’re told otherwise he’s made very good mental progress so far in year two.

Richard Rodgers (GB, 98^th pick) – Rodgers is the most athletic TE on the Packer roster and has good hands, and he’s looking like a good sleeper in his second season. He needs to beat out Andrew Quarless to dominate the snaps in this offense, and Rodgers and Quarless basically split snaps last season, so this should remain an open competition heading into training camp. We believe that Rodgers’ talent will eventually win out here, and there was some positive buzz about him as they wrapped up their off-season workouts. Obviously, he has legit fantasy potential playing in this offense with Aaron Rodgers.

Jace Amaro (NYJ, 49^th pick) – Amaro played just 39% of the snaps last year, but he still ended up as the team’s top fantasy TE and the 27^th TE overall, which shows his ability as a receiver. He’s still learning his way in the NFL, especially as a blocker, but he caught a solid 74.5% of his passes and definitely has some upside if this Jet passing game shows significant improvement. The main thing to monitor with him in August, other than checking on the back injury he suffered in the OTAs, is his role. HC Todd Bowles said this spring that veteran Jeff Cumberland is the starting TE and that Amaro is an H-back. That’s usually a kiss of death for a TE, but it’s worked for Charles Clay in the past. We just have to get a feel for his role in Chan Gailey’snew system, but the upside is there for this receiving specialist.

Have a chance:

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Well, they are second-year receivers:

Ryan Hewitt (Cin, UDFA) – Hewitt is already one of the better H-backs in the league because of his lead blocking, and he could be a key for Jeremy Hill’s fantasy production in 2015. However, Hewitt is unlikely to be fantasy relevant after just 10/86 in 16 games last season.

Arthur Lynch (Mia, 155^th pick) – Lynch missed the entire 2014 season with a back injury that landed him on the injured reserve. He’ll have to get on the field because of his blocking, as he’s not a great receiver. Jordan Cameron has had some concussion issues in the past, so the Dolphins do need some depth at TE.

Trey Burton (Phi, UDFA) – Burton was compared to Jordan Reed coming out of Florida, as both guys played multiple positions in college and were extremely athletic for the position. Burton failed to make a catch and was nothing more than a special teams player in 15 games as a rookie. He would need an injury to Zach Ertz or Brent Celek to get on the field more this season.

Rob Blanchflower (Pit, 230^th pick) – Blanchflower failed to get off the practice squad as a rookie, and the Steelers drafted another TE prospect, Jesse James, in the 5^th round of the 2015 draft. The Steelers are pretty high on James as a future replacement for Heath Miller, so Blanchflower might have trouble making this roster out of camp.

Ted Bolser (Ari, 217^th pick) – The Redskins cut Bolser before the 2014 season, but he at least landed in TE-needy Arizona. He’s still a long shot to even make the Cardinal roster, but his chances are at least improved competing against the likes of Troy Niklas and Darren Fells.

Third-Year WRs

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

DeAndre Hopkins (Hou, 27^th pick) – Before releasing Andre Johnson this off-season, the Texans reportedly told him that they wanted him to take a back seat and see a major decrease in targets, according to the Houston Chronicle. It’s perhaps a harsh acknowledgement that the Texans didn’t think Johnson was worth his salary anymore, but if we’re looking on the other side of things, it means they think Hopkins is ready to take the next step. Overall, he had struggles as a rookie in 2013, but he broke out with a 76/1210/6 line in 2014. Hopkins was generally a safe fantasy start in his second season, until he started playing hurt down the stretch – he fell below 10 FP in a PPR in four of his final six games (of course, he also had 238 yards and 2 TDs against the Titans in one of those final six games). Hopkins had a bum ankle and revealed this spring that he had wrist surgery as well, so his health is the most important thing for him as he approaches his first training camp as Houston’s #1 guy (he did play in OTAs). With hopefully some stability at the QB position, Hopkins has a good shot to at least duplicate his impressive second season. He should get a targets bump, which is notable because he’s averaged over 15 YPC in each of his first two seasons. Could he be both a big-play guy and target hound?

Legit breakout candidates:

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Have a chance:

Tavon Austin (Stl, 8^th pick) – What the hell are the Rams going to do with Austin? Last year, he was a player who produced just as much as a rusher (36/224/2) as he did as a receiver (31/242/0). He’s still a dangerous return man, but you’d be fooling yourself if you thought the Rams have gotten as much out of Austin as they hoped when they made him the #8 overall pick in 2013. Fortunately for Austin, former OC Brian Schottenheimer is gone, and “Schotty” far too often put Austin on an island without a shred of creativity. Reports from OTAs suggest the Rams plan to get more creative with Austin in 2015, this time with OC Frank Cignetti and QB Nick Foles, but we’ll believe it when we see it. It’s entirely possible that, even if Austin has a good season, he’s a better NFL player than fantasy asset. He’s the perfect case of a guy who needed a fresh start, and at least he kind of gets that with Cignetti.

Cordarrelle Patterson (Min, 29^th pick) – No doubt, Patterson has tantalized with his big-play ability with the ball in his hands, at least compared to another 2013 draftee, Tavon Austin. The problem is that he just can’t get himself in the right place mentally to consistently end up with the ball in his hands. Patterson had struggles with the Vikings’ playbook and his route running all last season, and it led to one of the NFL’s most disappointing seasons, especially after he closed 2013 so hot. It’s not that Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner are averse to young receivers – after all, the Vikings gave a huge role to Charles Johnson, another 2013 draftee whom the team picked up off the scrap heap. It’s now an uphill climb for Patterson, who is certainly behind Johnson and Mike Wallace, and will have to compete with Jarius Wright and rookie Stefon Diggs for snaps. Patterson’s reportedly had a very good off-season (hasn’t everyone?), but anything the Vikings get from him on offense will be a bonus. He will open as the club’s top return man, and if he puts it together on offense, his snaps will increase. We’re not counting on him and neither are the Vikings, but there’s obviously ability here.

Justin Hunter (Ten, 34^th pick) – The talent Hunter possesses is obvious – after all, the guy has averaged 18.5 YPR so far in his NFL career. The problem is that he’s caught just 46 passes on 104 targets, a horrendous 44% catch rate. Hunter’s had major mental and maturity issues in his career, in addition to injuries (a knee injury and a nasty lacerated spleen last year included). Two years into his stint with the Titans he remains a guy who basically runs fast in a straight line. There’s a place for that in the NFL, but not a place that will make him consistently relevant for fantasy. Barring a major step forward in his mental development, Hunter will be “just a guy” on the Titans’ depth chart along with Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, Hakeem Nicks, and another freakishly gifted, freakishly tall player with major issues, rookie Dorial Green-Beckham.

Robert Woods (Buf, 41^st pick) – Woods is a solid player, but through two NFL seasons he’s been a perfect example of a receiver who should be on most Waiver Wires, worth an add on Sunday if you’re desperate for a #3 type because of byes and injuries. He posted 65/699/5 receiving on 103 targets last year, a very decent line with bad QB play, but not enough to push him past the gifted Sammy Watkins or big-money signing Charles Clay on the target food chain. The Bills hope to have an upgrade at QB in Matt Cassel this year, but they’ve also upgraded across the board, especially with LeSean McCoy in the backfield. Woods probably has too much competition for touches with the perceived high-volume run game and a suddenly deep receiving corps (Watkins, Clay, Percy Harvin, Chris Hogan) to have a legit shot to break out this year.

Markus Wheaton (Pit, 79^th pick) – Wheaton floated in and out of streamer/DFS relevance last year, posting 53/644/2 in 16 games, but he failed to make the consistent impact of Antonio Brown or the week-to-week splashes Martavis Bryant made last year (Bryant’s also reportedly been excellent in OTAs and minicamp this spring). Likely the Steelers’ #3 WR heading into 2015, Wheaton will once again struggle for consistency, as he has to deal with competition from Heath Miller, Le’Veon Bell, and rookie WR Sammie Coates for targets. It’s not outrageous to think Wheaton could top 50 catches again, especially if the Steeler defense is as bad as it looks on paper, but he isn’t likely to be more than a fill-in fantasy option.

Aaron Dobson (NE, 58^th pick) – Dobson was an oft-hyped player last summer because of a perceived lack of depth at WR for the Patriots, but he had a miserable year. Dobson played in just four games in 2014, making 3 catches, as he dealt with being both a healthy scratch and later landing on IR with a hamstring injury. Dobson has now had a major foot injury and a hamstring injury in his two NFL seasons, and he’s only gone backwards. That said, the Patriots have made no major additions at WR, and once again he’ll enter training camp with a chance to become the deep threat the Patriots have lacked the last couple of years. He’s competing with Brandon Gibson, Josh Boyce, and Brian Tyms, two of which won’t likely make the team. But since he’s healthy and so talented, Dobson was considered slightly ahead of those guys, and he gained some valuable reps in the OTAs with Brandon LaFell in a walking boot (good luck learning the full extent of that injury until camp opens). Keep an eye on Dobson, because he could be worth a “post-hype” late-round flyer.

Stedman Bailey (Stl, 92^nd pick) – Bailey had a few nice moments toward the end of last season, with his only three games above 10.0 FP in a PPR coming between Weeks Twelve and Fifteen (including 7/89/1 against the Chargers). A quick-twitch athlete who can get down the field, Bailey looked more impressive even in his short stint than Tavon Austin has looked in his entire career, and he should have a shot to win a job and provide a return on a late-round fantasy pick. All considered, though, this will be a run-first team with competition on the perimeter, with a new QB in Nick Foles. Bailey’s ceiling is likely capped mainly because of Austin, who should have the edge in the battle for the slot receiver role. But if called upon, Bailey has shown he can contribute meaningfully, and he won’t be facing a 4-game suspension to open the season as he did in 2014.

Corey Fuller (Det, 171^st pick) – The Lions haven’t had a #3 WR who has been fantasy relevant in ages, but the 25-year old Fuller fits QB Matthew Stafford well. Namely, Fuller can get downfield, and Stafford can fire it down there. Reportedly impressive this spring, Fuller doesn’t have a ton of competition for snaps behindCalvin Johnson and Golden Tate, especially because he’s a different kind of player than the more precise T.J. Jones and Lance Moore (who has experience in this offense). It’d be an upset if Fuller has significant fantasy upside because the #3 WR in this offense doesn’t get a ton of snaps, but note the Lions could go to more 3-WR sets if their TE position continues to disappoint. The issue is this: Could RB Theo Riddick be the slot receiver, making this all moot? For now, consider Fuller more of a Calvin handcuff than anything else.

Marquess Wilson (Chi, 236^th pick) – Wilson’s hype train derailed explosively this off-season, when he went from the de facto #2 after the Brandon Marshall trade to a tenuous #4 following the signing of Eddie Royal and drafting of Kevin White. Wilson likely isn’t in danger of being cut because the Bears don’t really have anyone behind him who could be perceived as a serious threat to his roster spot, and he’s had a strong OTA. But he failed to make an impact in 2014 despite chances late in the season, after he returned from a broken collarbone (he also had a knee issue). Wilson will remain a top handcuff for Alshon Jeffery and the rookie White, but his window to fantasy relevance closed abruptly.

Marlon Brown (Bal, undrafted) – Brown had a disappointing 2014 season (24/255/0) after scoring 7 TDs on 49 receptions as a rookie, but that could be anticipated once the Ravens signed Steve Smith and hired Gary Kubiak as their OC. Brown is likely to be the Ravens’ #3 WR once again this year, but that’s with Smith a year older, rookie Breshad Perriman replacing Torrey Smith, and the pass-happier Marc Trestman taking over as OC. While the Ravens will almost certainly never be a truly high-volume pass offense with QB Joe Flacco, there’s a chance Trestman has his franchise QB drop back more than we’ve ever seen him. Brown could be a very appealing red-zone option for Flacco, and that could help him separate himself from the likes ofMichael Campanaro and Kamar Aiken in training camp. However, we’re told the slight edge for the #3 role should go to Aiken, who clicks well with Flacco, so Brown may need the rookie Perriman to have issues if he’s to get on the field a lot.

Well, they are third-year receivers:

Quinton Patton (SF, 128^th pick) – Remember the Patton hype as a rookie in 2013? To be fair, it was based on the fact that the 49ers lacked depth at WR, something they definitely still lack. But Patton has had foot problems in each of his two NFL seasons and has never been able to make a consistent impact. That’s a bad sign, considering the 49ers arguably had worse depth at WR each of the last two seasons (they signed Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson this off-season, drafted DeAndre Smelter, and Bruce Ellington has been more impressive than Patton of late). Patton’s gotten off to a good start by impressing coaches this spring, but he doesn’t move well and owes his best chance of making this roster to the fact that Smelter is recovering from a late-season ACL tear.

Brice Butler (Oak, 209^th pick) – A size/speed freak, Butler has just 30/383/2 receiving in two NFL seasons, in large part because he’s struggled to pick up the Raiders’ offense. That makes his training camp predicament interesting – there are a ton of bodies for him to compete with in Oakland, but likely only Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree who are locks for the roster. Butler is someone to follow closely during camp and the preseason. If he makes this roster while Derek Carr continues to show improvement, he could have a role as a field-stretcher for the Raiders in 2015. If he doesn’t impress in camp, he could be cut because Andre Holmes can also fill the aforementioned role.

Marquise Goodwin (Buf, 78^th pick) – A hopeful Olympian track athlete, Goodwin was a third-round pick out of Texas in 2013 almost entirely because of his blazing speed. Unfortunately, it didn’t translate in 2014 after some flashes in 2013. Goodwin made just 1 catch in 2014 while battling numerous injuries, and now he has to contend with a deep roster around him. Coach Rex Ryan has talked him up this off-season, but Goodwin is likely going to have to prove himself indispensable as a return man to lock up a roster spot.

Ace Sanders (Jac, 101^st pick) – Springtime traditions – Easter Sunday, Memorial Day, and Ace Sanders hype. Sanders was a complete nonfactor in 2014 after a relatively promising rookie season in 2013 (51/484/1 receiving), unable to make an impact in one of the NFL’s youngest receiving corps following a four-game substance abuse suspension to start the season. ESPN’s Michael DiRocco has praised Sanders’ work this spring, but it seems like “gadget” types always wow in shorts and t-shirts before underwhelming in training camp. Sanders could have a gig as a return man, but he’s likely to be behind Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, and Rashad Greene on the food chain for targets, if he even makes the team.

Josh Boyce (NE, 102^nd pick) – The Patriots’ duo of 2013 draft WRs has been a colossal disappointment as a whole, but Boyce has been even more absent than Aaron Dobson. Boyce made 9 catches as a rookie in 2013, but spent most of 2014 on the practice squad after being cut during the summer. He’s in a battle to make the roster in 2015, not helped by suffering an injury in June minicamp. It’d be an upset if he makes this roster.

Chris Harper (NYG, 123^rd pick) – Brutally over drafted in 2013, the fourth-round pick Harper didn’t even make it out of the preseason with the Seahawks as a rookie, then he landed in Green Bay where the Packers tried to convert him to a “move TE” type of player (it didn’t work). Harper has toiled on the Giants’ practice squad for a bit, but has stiff competition (Corey Washington, Preston Parker, Geremy Davis) to make this team, even as a #5 WR.

Tavarres King (TB, 161^st pick) – King was released by three teams (Denver, Carolina, and Jacksonville) before he got his shot with the depth-hungry Buccaneers last year, catching 2 passes. Still, King will enter training camp in a battle for a roster spot, as the Bucs drafted two WRs (Kenny Bell andKaelin Clay) to go along with second-year men Robert Herron and Mike Evans, plus vets Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy.

Justin Brown (Buf, 186^th pick) – The Steelers waived Brown in December, and the Bills added him about a month later. Brown made 12 catches in 2014 but never made a significant impact, and he’ll have a tough road ahead of him if he wants to make the suddenly deep Bills’ roster. At least he has intriguing size (6’3”), something other Bills WRs lack.

Alan Bonner (Hou, 195^th pick) – Bonner spent his rookie season in 2013 on IR with a hamstring injury, then spent all of 2014 on IR with a broken foot. Once thought to be a potential special teams contributor, he now has an uphill climb to make the Texans’ roster.

Cobi Hamilton (Cin, 197^th pick) – Hamilton has never been able to separate himself from the pack, and through two NFL seasons has no recorded stats despite spending some time with the Bengals’ 53-man roster and impressing OC Hue Jackson in practices. Obviously, he’s a long shot to ever contribute.

Third-Year TEs

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

Travis Kelce (KC, 63^rd pick) – Depending on the day, we could call Kelce’s puzzling lack of snaps in 2014 (under 70% on the year) either overly cautious or impossibly foolish. Indeed, the Chiefs’ most dynamic weapon was coming off microfracture surgery and wasn’t truly 100%, which could well validateAndy Reid playing Anthony Fasano over him some weeks. But Kelce proved early and often that his athletic ability was far too extreme to ignore, with 67/862/5 receiving despite playing only two thirds of the Chiefs’ offense snaps. Considering the Chiefs didn’t have a wide receiver score a TD all season long, it’s ridiculous that he didn’t play more often, even if he were a terrible blocker (which, to our eyes, he wasn’t). Kelce has noted he wants to get stronger as a blocker, but that shouldn’t matter – even with Jeremy Maclin in town, Kelce has the dynamic playmaking ability to be Alex Smith’s #1 target. At least Fasano is gone. In today’s class of fantasy TE, Kelce has probably already “broken out” given his production last year, but we believe he has plenty more untapped potential.

Legit breakout candidates:

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Have a chance:

Gavin Escobar (Dal, 47^th pick) – The good news: Escobar has scored a TD on a whopping 33.3% of his career catches. The bad news: he has 18 career catches in two seasons. While Jason Witten has remained a productive player perhaps longer than the Cowboys anticipated, 18 catches in two seasons is still disappointing for a second-round pick. We’re not yet giving up on Escobar (the way we’re writing off Vance McDonald), but he needs to improve his blocking and conditioning to solidify his role. He’s still competing with James Hanna and rookie Geoff Swaim behind Witten, but there could be a chance to contribute here if the 33-year-old Witten slows down and/or the Cowboys are forced to throw it more in 2015.

Dion Sims (Mia, 106^th pick) – Sims took a step forward in 2014, with 24/284/2 receiving as the Dolphins’ #2 TE behind Charles Clay. He’ll enter 2015 as the Dolphins’ #2 TE again, this time behind receiving specialist Jordan Cameron, but note well Cameron’s extensive history with concussions and other injuries (shoulder, most notably). Sims is also well regarded for his blocking, which should keep his snaps up as the Dolphins utilize 2-TE sets. He doesn’t have an immediate window to fantasy relevance, but if Cameron were to go down, he’s going to be someone immediately on the radar in one of the NFL’s up-and-coming offenses, especially since Ryan Tannehill excels in the short to intermediate area.

Mychal Rivera (Oak, 184^th pick) – Rivera had a nice year in 2014 overall, posting 58/534/4 receiving as he provided a solid check-down option for QBDerek Carr. But the Raiders clearly understood that Rivera’s overall athletic ability is minimal, and looked to upgrade. First, they signed blocking specialist Lee Smith away from the Bills this off-season, and then spent a third-round pick in May on Clive Walford, one of the best TEs in this rookie class. It may take some time for Walford to get on the field, and Rivera could well open the season as the Raiders’ top guy, but an already low-upside player has an even shorter ceiling this year.

Ryan Griffin (Hou, 201^st pick) – In a huge surprise, the Texans barely utilized their TEs last year, despite Bill O’Brien coming from TE-heavy backgrounds with the Patriots and Penn State. Griffin had just 10/91/1 receiving in 2014, and will be competing with talented youngster C.J. Fiedorowicz and vet Garrett Graham for snaps in 2015. It’d be an upset if he ended up on the fantasy radar, but will O’Brien’s history finally shine through?

Well, they are third-year receivers:

Vance McDonald (SF, 55^th pick) – A 2013 second-round pick, McDonald has been a colossal disappointment, with just 10 catches in 23 career games, plus a back injury last year. In addition to already employing Vernon Davis, the Niners spent two picks on TEs, Oklahoma’s Blake Bell and South Carolina’s Busta Anderson. McDonald has a lot of ability, but it’s never shined through, and if he struggles in training camp there’s a good chance he’ll be cut.

Levine Toilolo (Atl, 133^rd pick) – The Falcons cleaned out their coaching staff and started to revamp their roster this off-season, and that included adding two veteran TEs (Jacob Tamme and Tony Moeaki) to the mix. Neither guy will provide a long-term answer to the position, but the fact is that both are more gifted receivers than Toilolo, who posted just 31/238/2 receiving last year despite a ton of opportunity. The 6’8” Toilolo will ideally be a red-zone threat for Matt Ryan, but he’s unlikely to provide a significant fantasy impact.

Luke Willson (Sea, 158^th pick) – An impressive athlete at the TE position (6’5”, 250), Willson had major early struggles in 2014, especially with drops, but down the stretch became a more reliable and dynamic target for QB Russell Wilson, averaging 16.5 YPC on his 22 grabs in 2014. Unfortunately for Willson, his inconsistency meant the Seahawks made upgrading TE a major off-season priority, which they completed in a big way by trading for Jimmy Graham. Willson is a really nice #2 TE to have, especially if he can prove himself a better blocker than Graham, but his fantasy upside has been annihilated.

Joseph Fauria (Det, undrafted) – Fauria had a miserable 2014 season, playing in only seven games as an ankle injury bothered him all year. He was part of a consistently underachieving group of Lion TEs, as he posted just 6/74/1 receiving on the year. Fauria became famous as a rookie in 2013 for scoring 7 TDs on just 18 receptions, mostly because he consistently impressed with his TD dances afterward. That gimmick won’t be enough to ensure Fauria a roster spot in 2015 – he’s still battling the ankle as of publication (despite not getting surgery), and the Lions reportedly expressed interest in more TE depth this off-season, including putting in a waiver claim for Tim Wright. Certainly behind Eric Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew, Fauria must use his 6’7” frame to his advantage to make an impact in 2015.

Tim Wright (TB, undrafted) – After a promising rookie season in 2013, Wright was traded to the Patriots for G Logan Mankins in a trade that didn’t really work out for either team – Wright could barely get on the field in New England, and the Bucs’ line still stunk despite (and perhaps because of) Mankins’ presence. The Patriots released Wright this spring, and the Bucs claimed him off waivers, where he’ll compete for a back-up job behind the promising Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

Chris Gragg (Buf, 222^nd pick) – An athletically gifted receiving prospect, Gragg just hasn’t put it all together in two NFL seasons, with just 12/101/2 receiving. After the signing of Charles Clay, Gragg will have to compete with rookie Nick O’Leary for the Bills’ backup TE job. There’s a chance he’s more productive this year than ever if the Bills run a bit of 2-TE looks, but it’s highly unlikely to translate to fantasy relevance.

Justice Cunningham (Stl, 254^th pick) – A blocking specialist, Cunningham has 1 career catch for 4 yards, and he’s buried behind Jared Cook, the recently re-signed Lance Kendricks, and FB/HB Cory Harkey. Cunningham is likely the backup H-back here, not really a fantasy-relevant position.

FantasyGuru.com’s Joe Dolan, Matt Camp, John Hansen, and Tom Brolley contributed to this report.

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Friday, June 26, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #14 (2015's Breakout Receivers)

2015 Breakout Receivers

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