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OFF-SEASON REPORT #12
Published Online, June 12, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #12: 2015's Values & Players to Target - 6/12

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Season Projections - 6/11
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
2015 Season Projections - 5/20
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Rookie Report - 5/13
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 5/12
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
Post-Draft Stock Watch - 5/4
Post-Free Agency Stock Watch - 4/28
2015 Player Movement Tracker - 4/28
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

2015 Player Profiles - Coming next week!
Off-Season Report #13: 2015 Overvalues & Players to Avoid - Next week

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2015's Values and Players to Target

Published, 6/12/15

Another NFL season is upon us, and it’s time to once again isolate our favorite picks from among roughly the top-200 players in the 2015 player pool.

We’ve been trying lately to be more judicious with our picks, so we have fewer of them than in years past. Previously, we’d list more no-brainers than needed, so this year’s list is more about players who are being drafted 30+ picks in. And with many key position battles and unsettled roles heading into 2015 training camps, this year’s list of deep sleepers will likely change considerably by September.

We’ve spent the off-season dissecting the 2014 season by scouring the numbers. We’ve also considered all the off-season activities and the 2014 schedule to trim a player pool of about 200 players/teams (minus the obvious studs) down to around 80.

Note: For simplicity’s sake, any reference to draft rounds in this article reflects a 12-team league, and reference to specific ADP selections refer to the player’s standing in a 12-team PPR league at the time of publications. For more insight, including full up-to-date charts for both PPR and non-PPR leagues, check out our ADP analysis.

Picks 1-30

Quarterback Targets
None of note.

Quarterback Values

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Rodgers is looking like a pretty solid value compared to Andrew Luck, and it’s possible that Aaron slips into the third round.Rodgers finished second in FPG at the position in 2014, so he lived up to his high ADP of 20 overall. This year he’s dropped only 4 spots, so he’s almost exactly where he was in 2014. Rodgers is older and smaller than Luck, so he has the bigger injury risk, but Rodgers should also present more value than Luck. Rodgers is coming off a season where he posted an incredible TD/INT ratio (38/5), and he has two of the best WRs in football in Jordy Nelson andRandall Cobb, plus so far this year they are loving Davante Adams, who HC Mike McCarthy told us in February picked up the offense very well last year. While we’re about holding off on drafting a QB this year, if Rodgers slips to the 3^rd round he’s hard to pass up.

Running Back Targets

Eddie Lacy (GB) – In Lacy’s two NFL seasons, he’s missed one game and has posted fewer than 10 FP in a PPR league six times. The one missed game and four of those six sub-10 point outings came during the month of September. Lacy’s two Septembers – marred by a concussion in each and a brutal schedule last year – have been the only thing holding down this fantasy star. Lacy faces off against the Seahawks again in Week Two in 2015, but of the top running backs available in the first two rounds, he’s the youngest with the biggest guaranteed role, plus he’s in the best situation of all those backs. If you’re a loyal “early RB” drafter, you can make a good argument Lacy should be the first overall pick. He’s big, he’s powerful, he can catch the ball, he plays with Aaron Rodgers behind a really good offensive line, and he has no one behind him to seriously challenge for significant snaps. The concussions are obviously a major concern, but he’s bounced back better than ever two years in a row.

Adrian Peterson (Min) – Peterson’s ADP is something to watch closely as the summer rolls on. As of publication, he was around pick 12 overall in 12-team leagues, putting him right at the turn, but ahead of guys like LeSean McCoy,Marshawn Lynch, and DeMarco Murray. It’s an interesting dilemma – Peterson is now 30, but (after his awful child abuse case and suspension) is ostensibly fresh, and clearly motivated. He’s playing for a team on the rise with a young passer in Teddy Bridgewater, who looks like a potential franchise QB. In 2012, he had one of the all-time great RB seasons. But also note that his 2012 season was the only of Peterson’s last four full seasons in which he was a top-5 finisher in FPG among RBs. His current ADP builds all the caveats into the equation, and makes him a nice value, especially if you have questions about McCoy and Murray on new teams, and questions again about Lynch’s ability to hold up physically. Technically, he’s a value with that early ADP, but we’d guess he’ll settle in as a top-5 pick by August – and we do have to consider the fact that they want to work Jerick McKinnon in more than most expect as a changeup this year. But ultimately, we still expect to endorse AD as a top-5 pick if things are looking positive in August.

Jeremy Hill (Cin) – Efficient and well-rounded, Hill clearly showed late last year that while he and Gio Bernard can coexist successfully, he’s the better bet to be the Bengals’ lead back. Bernard limited Hill’s production in the first half of the season, as he remained the primary weapon in the backfield. But once Bernard got hurt midway through the year, starting with his missing the Bengals’ Week Nine game, Hill turned things up a notch. From Week Nine on, Hill was the #9 PPR RB at 16.8 FPG (he was #39 over the first eight weeks of the season). From Weeks One through Eight, Hill averaged 7.1 carries and 27.9 rush yards per game. In the second half, those numbers increased to 19.1 carries and 103.2 rush yards per game. In all, he had five 100-yard games, all from November 2 on, and he finished the year with three consecutive 100-yard games in critical weeks for fantasy players. Additionally, he was a better receiver than expected coming out of LSU (and we expected him to be pretty good). The Bengals have a run-first offense with a solid line that they’ve already begun to retool. Hill could well be their foundation this year, and his youth plus well-rounded skillset make him perhaps the most appealing 2^nd-round RB target for those who take a WR or Rob Gronkowski in Round 1.

Running Back Values

C.J. Anderson (Den) – No, there’s no guarantee Anderson is actually the guy in Denver, with a healthy Montee Ball lurking. We have only half a season’s sample size on him and there’s a new staff in town, which makes spending a second-round pick on him riskier than many would like. But examine it a little – that ADP (22.46 as of publication) is building the inherent risk into the equation. Last season, Anderson started fewer than half of the Broncos’ games (his first double-digit PPR performance came in Week Ten), but he still ranked #11 in total fantasy points at the RB position. If there was a guarantee he’s the starter, he’d be a no-doubt top-five pick. As we stand, Anderson is in a favorable offense with new coach and fantasy RB friend Gary Kubiak, plus QB Peyton Manning. And a very good schedule should help offset the changes on the Broncos’ offensive line, including the loss of LT Ryan Clady to injury. Paranoid Anderson drafters can also get Ball as a handcuff, as he’s currently a very affordable 13^th-round pick in PPR drafts. The upside here helps offset the risk in the second round, since the Broncos are clearly going to be more about running the ball than we’ve seen in recent years.

Wide Receiver Targets

Demaryius Thomas (Den) – Thomas finished as the #3 fantasy WR in 2014, but he actually had a down season – based on efficiency – for his lofty standards. He posted career-high totals, but his efficiency numbers plummeted from a 65.1% catch rate and a 10.14 YPT in 2013 to 61.0%/8.90 in 2014. QB Peyton Manning clearly fell off from his record-breaking 2013 season to 2014, and Thomas dropped a few too many passes. But Demaryius could have a huge role and a more efficient season as the “X” receiver in Gary Kubiak’s offense in 2015. Demaryius still led the NFL with 182 targets last year, and the Bronco receiving corps is thinner in 2015, so he could be counted on more than ever. Demaryius is slipping down draft boards because of the concerns about Peyton’s age and a potentially more conservative Bronco offense. Still, we’ve seen X receivers in Kubiak’s offenses be very active in the past, and Thomas could potentially be a steal if he slips into the second round with his current ADP of 12.

Wide Receiver Values

Calvin Johnson (Det) – Megatron is no longer the consensus #1 fantasy WR heading into the preseason, but the only thing keeping him from being a top-5 fantasy WR will be his health as he turns 30 in September. Megatron’s catch rates have been poor the last two seasons (around 55%) but his 15.2 YPC remains encouraging. He should have a better grasp of Joe Lombardi’s offense in Year 2, so the only question is if Johnson can stay healthy.Megatron came on strong in the final eight games of the 2014 season once he got over his ankle injury, catching 49/729/6 for an average of 19.7 FPG.Calvin’s career may have crested already, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a value in the second round with an ADP of 15.

Tight End Targets

Rob Gronkowski (NE) – Gronk is a player to target simply for his impact overall and his potential dominance at the TE position. Gronk outscored the next closest fantasy TE in 2014 – Jimmy Graham – by 3.2 FPG, so he absolutely dominated the position. He failed to score 10+ FPG only once in 15 games last season (he sat out a meaningless Week Seventeen game to rest). That means he was remarkably consistent at a position where consistency was so hard to find, especially given the struggles of the other “elite” options at the position (Graham and Julius Thomas). To put it quite simply, he was the single easiest player to plug into a fantasy starting lineup. The Patriots threw 169 passes to TEs, and Gronk led the league with 131 targets, so the only question is if he can stay on the field. He’s a lock to put up numbers if he’s healthy, and you won’t have to worry about the TE position if you take Gronk, so he’s certainly worth a look with an ADP of 7.

Tight End Values
None of note.

Picks 1-30 All-In Group

Here are some players typically taken in the top 30 of a fantasy draft on whom we’re “All-In” in 2015.