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OFF-SEASON REPORT #13
Published Online, June 19, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #13: Overvalued & Players to Avoid - 6/19

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Off-Season Stock Watch - 6/20
2015 Season Projections - 6/19
Off-Season Wrap Podcast - 6/19
2015 Player Profiles - 6/18
2015 Auction Plan - 6/18
2015 Auction Guidelines - 6/18
2015's Values and Players to Target - 6/12
Depth Charts - 6/8
2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
2015 Season Projections - 5/20
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Rookie Report - 5/13
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 5/12
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
Post-Draft Stock Watch - 5/4
Post-Free Agency Stock Watch - 4/28
2015 Player Movement Tracker - 4/28
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

Off-Season Report #14: 2015's Position Battles - Next week

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2015s Overvalued & Players to Avoid

Published, 6/19/15

Trying to isolate players for this article each year is always a slippery slope. We certainly don’t want to list only obvious choices, yet we also don’t want to include stud players just for the sake of including them. When we list a high-end player, there’s always risk because a player with ability and experience can always come through with a big season.

Each year with this article we simply try to use common sense. If a player has major durability, playing time, or supporting cast issues, he needs to be downgraded or even avoided. Yet every year in fantasy drafts, we see owners making picks that are setting themselves up to fail. We’re trying to avoid failure each year in this article, which covers the top players we feel are being drafted too high or whom we’re simply avoiding.

The way we see it, throwing caution to the wind and paying top dollar for a player with issues is placing an unhealthy reliance on luck. This game of fantasy football is hard enough as it is.

Note: It was still very early in the process when we initially published this article (late-June) and we didn’t find as many “avoid” players, but that could change once camps start. This year’s list is more about being uncomfortable or unwilling to draft these players below around their ADPs.

Quarterbacks

Overvalued

Russell Wilson (Sea, 50 ADP) – Wilson is coming off a career fantasy season in which he finished 6^th, with 23.5 FPG. That coincided with a career-high in rushing attempts (118), rushing yards (849), and rushing TDs (6) in addition to career-highs in passing attempts (452) and passing yards (3475). The rise in passing numbers is totally understandable, and the ascension has a good chance of continuing in 2015 with the addition of TE Jimmy Graham. However, expecting Wilson to boost his rushing numbers for the fourth straight season or even match up to 2014’s numbers is way too optimistic, especially if the team throws it more with a big-time weapon in Graham joining the team. Because Wilson’s value is so closely tied to his legs, we have trouble taking him in the 4^th-5^th round, especially since we’re preaching to wait for a QB, and there are plenty of reliable options available 2-4 rounds later in the draft.

Running Backs

Overvalued

LeSean McCoy (Buf, 13 ADP) – Look, it’s very clear McCoy is going to get a ton of touches. The Bills traded young (albeit recently injured) star Kiko Alonso to the Eagles for him, and then signed him to a new deal. The Bills have publicly expressed their desire to limit Fred Jackson’s snaps, and Jackson himself has said he expects McCoy to get 300 carries this year. Here are the problems beyond that: First of all, McCoy is moving from a Philly line that was inconsistent but all-around solid blocking for the run last year, to a Buffalo line that wasn’t. And McCoy himself was ineffective on a per-touch basis in Philly last year, especially as a receiver, where his nose-dived from 52 catches and 10.4 YPR in 2013 to 28 catches and 5.5 YPR in 2014. McCoy was also ineffective in goal-line situations, where he fell out of favor to Chris Polk and evenDarren Sproles late last season. If you’re all about volume and think McCoy is bound to rebound, especially since he’s just 27, you could certainly be right. But in addition to the issues outlined here, we also have some concerns about his leading the NFL in touches the last five seasons, and also how he’ll react to running behind a FB, which for McCoy may not be a good thing, since he’s a creator more than a guy who likes things defined. Otherwise, we believe there are enough red flags to pass up McCoy for younger backs (Jeremy Hill, C.J. Anderson) or frankly better-bet receivers at his mid-June 12.8 ADP in a 12-team PPR league.

Matt Forte (Chi, 11 ADP) – PPR owners were certainly pleased with Forte last year, as he set an NFL record with 102 receptions from the RB position. But the dirty secret is that Forte’s yardage averages on the ground (64.9 YPG, 3.9) were each the lowest that he’s posted since 2009, and the Bears intentionally fed him targets in Week Seventeen (8/23 receiving on 12 targets) so he could break the record. After playing a ridiculous 93% of the Bears’ offensive snaps in 2014, Forte now has over 2200 NFL touches on his body. He also has some legitimate players (Jacquizz Rodgers, Jeremy Langfordand maybe even Daniel Thomas in short yardage) behind him to at least relieve some duties and give him a breather. Before his time in Denver, new coach John Fox was a true advocate of RB rotations, and it’s possible he looks to take some work off the plate of Forte, who turns 30 in December. Forte wants a new contract, but he isn’t holding out, and the Bears have shown no inclination to give him a new deal, which shows they’re trying to prepare for the future (or ride Forte until he breaks down). A back whose efficiency slipped last year on a bad team with a new coaching staff, Forte fits the “jump off the fantasy bandwagon a year too early rather than a year too late” philosophy to a “T.” Remember, Forte has never scored double-digit rushing TDs (he was notoriously poor in short yardage prior to Marc Trestman’s arrival), and the guys behind him excel in third-down situations, which could dip into the areas Forte is best.

Avoid

Alfred Morris (Was, 40 ADP) – Morris has now had two consecutive seasons of being drafted in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts, while providing a pitiful return – RB20 in PPR in 2013 and RB17 in 2014 (and that’s in total points, as Morris’ best trait in his NFL career thus far has been his durability). The problem has been the same each year. Morris makes no contributions as a receiver, so he often comes out of the game in third-down and hurry-up situations. Washington has stunk the last two years, so Morris’ second-half carries are way down from when the team won the division in 2012. Roy Heluis gone now, of course, and Morris’ mid-June 39.7 ADP seems to at least build in his deficiencies. However, the club looks to be implementing more power runs this year (a favorite of Jay Gruden), and rookie RB Matt Jones fits those runs as well as any mid-round rookie in the 2015 draft class. So while Helu’s departure is a positive and we wouldn’t necessarily call Morris overvalued, he remains a headache we’d rather avoid altogether for fantasy.

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Sunday, June 21, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #13 (2015's Overvalued & Players to Avoid)

2015s Overvalued & Players to Avoid

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