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OFF-SEASON REPORT #11
Published Online, June 5, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
IN THIS ISSUE:
- Off-Season Report #11: 2015 Draft Plan - 6/5
ONLINE NOW:
- 2015 IDP Rookie Report - 6/4
- Adrian Peterson, Age 30 - 6/4
- Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
- TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
- Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
- 2015 Season Projections - 5/20
- Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
- 2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
- Post-Draft Rookie Report - 5/13
- Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 5/12
- Depth Charts - 5/12
- Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
- Post-Draft Stock Watch - 5/4
- Post-Free Agency Stock Watch - 4/28
- 2015 Player Movement Tracker - 4/28
- 2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
- 2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
- Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
- NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
- Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
- Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
- AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
- Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
- Visualizing Identity - 4/10
- Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
- Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
- 2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
- 2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
- Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
- Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
- Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
- PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
- Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
- Back to Regression - 3/12
- Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
- 2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
- 2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
- SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
- 2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
- SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
- 2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
- 2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2
UP NEXT:
- Off-Season Report #12: 2015 Values & Players to Target - Next week
- 2015 Player Profiles - Coming week of 6/15
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2015 Draft Plan
Published, 6/5/15
To be completely honest, my ideal Draft Plan really hasn’t changed much from year-to-year: I’m ideally stocking up on RBs/WRs while trying to hold off on drafting a QB and TE – and I’ll target values and break-out players at those two positions. So this article is usually more about the nuances that exist at the various positions and the specific players I’m targeting each year.
But I’m always trying to stay flexible and willing to adjust on the fly, and there are usually specific approaches to the various positions that change each year, making the construction of a yearly draft plan a must. In fact, there’s been a considerable shift in my approach this year, which is mainly a function of the 2015 landscape. Flexibility is important because it can be impossible to predict how a fantasy draft will go, and there are many paths to a fantasy title. But I have been striving to tighten up the plan lately to give a little more in terms of a specific direction, for those who want it. I’m also relating the Draft Plan more than ever to our Values & Players to Target article, which will be up on the site next week. So be sure to check out both pieces as we move along this summer. The Values & Players to Target article will tell you who we like and why we like them this year, and this draft plan will help you understand how you should be looking to acquire them.
Before I get to this year’s plan, a reminder that this early version is really just a primer, and that I see a lot of players to whom I could easily be giving love in August if things go well, but it’s way too early to isolate them. This initial plan is pretty comprehensive, but it’s hardly complete here in June.
By the way, I changed up the format of this positional plan this time around to include more lists and bullets as opposed to paragraph form. People like lists in general, and I’m trying not to be so wordy with fewer huge paragraphs.
The Quarterback Plan
Over the last 4-5 years, I’ve more often than not preached flexibility when it comes to a plan of attack at this position. There have been years in the recent past when drafting someone like Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd or even 2nd round made a lot of sense due to a lack of elite alternatives at the other positions and due to my general rule of acquiring as many high-impact options as possible, regardless of position.
But last year in this space, I categorically advised to hold off on drafting your QB, and nine of the top-12 scorers at the position were drafted outside of the top-25 overall, including fantasy’s top scorer, Andrew Luck, whose ADP was in the 40-45 range in 2014. Moreover, the top-2 QBs, Peyton Manningand Drew Brees, had so-so seasons, and eight of the top-12 scorers were drafted outside of the top-50. Of all the truly elite options at the position last year, we actually preferred Aaron Rodgers to Manning and Brees, mainly because Rodgers was often available at the top of the 3rd round in a 12-team league.
Luck will be the first quarterback off the board in drafts that take place outside of the Green Bay, WI area, and based on his ADP, he’s probably going to go off the board in the 2nd round of a typical 12-team draft (and possibly the early stages of the 2nd in the a 14-teamer). That’s certainly not horrible for a major difference-maker who averaged an amazing 30.9 points per game from Weeks One through Fourteen (and, yes, only 13.7 Weeks Fifteen through Seventeen) and whose offensive weaponry this year is off-the-charts good. So I can’t argue too much with taking Luck even that high, since you’ll at least have one non-QB stud otherwise, plus selecting Luck if you’re “stuck” and don’t see an obvious alternative jumping off the page to you later in Round Two is certainly viable.
But as typically is the case, your best chances to form the best starting lineup is to wait until at least the top-50 picks are made before selecting your signal-caller, and that’s definitely the case in 2015. In addition to myriad appealing QB options, the other skill positions are pretty loaded, so most fantasy owners shouldn’t have much trouble finding strong non-QB options in the first 4-5 rounds at least.
Since there are varying levels of “holding off” on drafting a QB, let’s go through the tiers and break them down:
- Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd round – If you’ve already drafted two elite options in the first two rounds and Rodgers is available in the 3rd, that’s certainly not a bad option. But I’ll be trying my best to resist that temptation because I’d rather, for example, draft Mike Evans in the 3rd andRyan Tannehill in the 9th than Rodgers in the 3rd and Eric Decker in the 9th. Note: The difference in our initial projections was over 50 fantasy points in favor of the Tannehill/Evans side.
- Drew Brees or Peyton Manning in the 5th or 6th – Their early ADPs show they both have a good chance to slip to the 6th round in a typical 12-team league, which would be an ideal spot for either. In leagues that typically draft QBs early and often, they’ll likely be, at the latest, 5th-round picks, and they could go off the board in the 4th. Regardless of the actual round, this plan could work out well with both veterans’ new-found downside built into their ADPs. And they are, you know, Brees and Manning.
- Hold off a little longer and grab either Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, or Tony Romo. Big Ben’s ADP is the lowest and he’s the highest in our 2015 projections, so he’s my pick of this group, followed by Ryan, Stafford, Cam, and Romo. These are all viable starters who won’t cost much on draft day, so they each present some value with ADPs in the 75-100 range. Obviously, Brady’s situation is still up in the air, so we’ll see about him.
And if I had to rank them by my own personal preference, I’d probably rank them 3, 2, and 1.
But none of these is my favorite plan. That is:
- Draft Ryan Tannehill. I like Roethlisberger in particular this year, and the others in the group above are all solid options and even more appealing when you consider their relatively low cost in fantasy drafts this year. But if I had to list one name in terms of the QB to target this year, Tannehill is my guy. That is a function of the player, system, supporting cast, and ADP (which is the lowest of all the players listed so far). There’s some risk rolling with a QB who has an ADP of only 100 as your starter, but that’s what Russell Wilson’s ADP was in 2014, and he was the #6 scorer for the season and was #4 the final eight games of the season (although he was a little up-and-down and had some weak performances, four to be exact).
Note: Speaking of Russell Wilson, he’s not someone I plan on targeting based entirely on his ADP of 50. That’s actually only 10-15 spots higher than Manning and Brees, but I sense Wilson will be drafted before those two veterans most of the time this year. Basically, I’d rather have Manning or Brees even one round after Wilson is taken off the board.
My approach with my QB2 really depends on who I draft as my starter. If I had reservations about my top guy, or if I was in a larger league (I’ll do a separate 15-team draft plan in July), I’d be proactive about acquiring one of the following:
- Eli Manning – Can put up starter numbers
- Philip Rivers – More reliable overall than consistently impactful
- Sam Bradford – The thing with Bradford, though, is I’d also like to/have to use another pick on a QB to handcuff him with Mark Sanchez
- Teddy Bridgewater – High-end backup with some upside
There are plenty of viable back-up options still, like Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler,Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, and Joe Flacco, but none of those guys does too much for me (although I am intrigued with Flacco in Marc Trestman’s offense). If I’m still looking for a QB this deep into the draft, I’m focusing on upside with guys like:
- Carson Palmer – Posted a healthy 21.3 points a game in his six games
- Derek Carr – Upgraded receiving corps/OL and a respectable 21 TD passes in 2014
- Blake Bortles – He runs, and has an intriguing supporting cast at receiver and upgraded OL
- Jameis Winston – Can augment value with his legs a little and nice trio of big receivers to throw to
- Geno Smith – That’s not a typo; I like Geno this year (at a 150+ ADP, of course)
FOR THE COMPLETE 2015 DRAFT PLAN ARTICLE, RENEW NOW FOR 2015!
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All Rights Reserved
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