Monday, June 16, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #13 (2014's Overvalued & Players to Avoid)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #13
Published, June 16, 2014
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  • Off-Season Report #14: 2014's OL Previews
  • Off-Season Report #15: 2014's Position Battles
  • 2014 Player Profiles - Late June 

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2014’s Overvalued & Players to Avoid

Published, 6/16/14 

Trying to isolate players for this article each year is always a slippery slope. We certainly don’t want to list only obvious choices, yet we also don’t want to include stud players just for the sake of including them. And when we list a high-end player, there’s always risk because a player with ability and experience can always come through with a big season.
 
So each year with this article we simply try to use common sense. If a player has major durability, playing time, or supporting cast issues, he needs to be downgraded, yet every year in fantasy drafts we see owners making picks that are setting themselves up to fail. We’re trying to avoid that each year in this article, which covers the top players we feel are being drafted too high or whom we’re simply avoiding.
 
The way we see it, throwing caution to the wind and paying top dollar for a player with issues is placing an unhealthy reliance on luck, and this game of fantasy football is hard enough as it is.
 
Here’s who we’re not liking in 2014…
 
Quarterbacks
 
Overvalued
 
Tom Brady (NE, 70 ADP) – The Patriots showed that they are starting to think about life after Brady when they drafted QB Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round of this May’s draft. We certainly don’t believe that Brady is done, and he very well could have a couple good years left in him. But he did show some signs of decline last season. He had some stretches when he just flat out didn’t play well in 2013, and he didn’t throw with the same accuracy that we’ve become accustomed to seeing from him. Brady has really struggled with his ball placement and arm strength down the field, which is obviously a concern. We placed Brady as the cover boy on the “Overvalued List” last season because we were worried about his supporting cast, and those worries are still present. TE Rob Gronkowski is constantly hurt, and they did very little to address the position this off-season. The Pats did add WR Brandon LaFell, but WRs Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola still have major durability questions, and promising wideout Aaron Dobson needs to get healthy and probably needs to make a leap this season to give Brady an impact weapon at WR. Brady is on the 2014 “Overvalued List” because of his supporting cast and because of his inconsistent performances in 2013, when he finished 21st for fantasy at his position. Quarterbacks like Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, and Robert Griffin III are being drafted around Brady, and those young QBs simply have more potential for the 2014 season. Simply put, if a QB doesn’t augment his fantasy value these days with rushing production, he needs to put up massive passing numbers to truly come through, and especially with the Pats continuing to lean a little more on their ground attack, we don’t see Brady putting up big passing digits in 2014.
 
Philip Rivers (SD, 107 ADP) – Rivers came back from the fantasy dead in 2013, as his then-new HC Mike McCoy helped to revitalize his career by switching from a vertical passing attack to a quick-attack offense. Indeed, Rivers got the ball out of his hands quicker last season, which helped him to a career-best 69.4% completion percentage and an 8th-place finish among fantasy QBs. However, his numbers dipped significantly in the second half of the year when the Chargers started to lean heavily on ball control and on their running game with RB Ryan Mathews. He wasn’t particularly reliable, as he put up fewer than 20 fantasy points in half of his games. Also, opposing defenses started to catch up to the Chargers passing game later in the year. Rivers clearly developed a great chemistry with WR Keenan Allen last season, but the Chargers are still pretty thin at WR behind him, and TE Antonio Gates is starting to get up there in football years at 34. The Chargers prioritized their off-season spending by signing RB Donald Brown as depth behind Mathews, which tells us they want to continue to run the ball. Rivers may have peaked in the first eight weeks of 2013 when he sat #4 among fantasy QBs, so his 2013 numbers are a bit deceiving, and drafting him as a QB1 or even a very high-end QB2 is a bit of a reach. He’s obviously a very strong and reliable backup, but if his ADP is really about 100, we think you can do much better for your QB2 in terms of value.
 
Avoid
 
Alex Smith (KC, 150 ADP) – In 2013, Smith played about as well as one could expect from him at this point in his career, as the nine-year pro put together a career-best season in his first season with HC Andy Reid and the Chiefs. However, even with career-best numbers, Smith still finished as the 16th-best fantasy QB last season, so he wasn’t even a QB1 worthy. Smith could once again succeed this season as he gets more acclimated in Reid’s offense, but it’s going to be tough for him to duplicate because of his inflated 2013 rushing numbers and a lack of weapons at receiver. Smith ran for a whopping 431 yards last season, 252 yards better than his previous career-best mark of 179 yards in 2011. We wouldn’t expect Smith to finish just behind Robert Griffin III in quarterback rushing yards once again this season. The Chiefs also shockingly did almost nothing to upgrade Smith’s weapons at receiver, leaving them with Donnie Avery as the #2 WR once again, so he’ll need a guy like TE Travis Kelce to step up for him this season. Smith has improved his chemistry with veteran Dwayne Bowe, but he’ll still need a lot of luck to replicate his 2013 season, and we’re not banking on it behind an OL that took some hits in free agency. We’d rather have guys like Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, and Eli Manning, who are going in the same ballpark as Smith.
 
Running Backs
 
Overvalued
 
Ben Tate (Cle, 40 ADP) – Tate will get his first legit chance to start the season as an NFL lead back, but we’re not convinced that he’ll stay healthy enough to justify using such a high pick on him. Even if Tate manages to stay on the field, it remains to be seen if he’ll be effective and not get worn down if he has to carry the load every week. We can’t deny that new OC Kyle Shanahan will want to run the ball a lot, and he’s gotten some big seasons out of Alfred Morris and Steve Slaton in the past. Still, Tate has been pretty pedestrian in the passing game throughout his career, so he’s no guarantee to stay on the field on third downs. The Browns also drafted Terrance West, who they could work heavily into the mix if they have questions about Tate’s durability. West got first-team reps in OTAs while the Browns limited Tate’s activities, and some believe that West could eventually start here. The Browns also have another talented rookie running back in the mix, UDFA Isaiah Crowell, who is a former five-star recruit out of high school. The Browns signed Tate to a very team-friendly deal, so the Browns clearly aren’t convinced that Tate can stay healthy, after he’s missed 24 games in four seasons as a backup RB (including his entire rookie year). Tate needs to prove he can stay healthy before he becomes fantasy friendly, and his current price tag is a little too high.
 
Frank Gore (SF, 53 ADP) – The 49ers are really starting to accumulate talent behind their starter Gore, which is at least a little telling heading into the 2014 season. The 49ers already had a capable backup and change-of-pace guy in Kendall Hunter, and then San Fran used a second-round pick on Carlos Hyde, arguably the best RB in the 2014 draft. Throw in the fact that Marcus Lattimore - who was once thought of as the best RB in the 2013 draft before knee injuries - could be ready to go for Week One, and the 49ers suddenly have a ton of talent at RB. Gore will open the season as the starter, but it’s clear that HC Jim Harbaugh wants to lighten Gore’s workload. It’s also possible that Gore could lose goal-line work to the powerful Hyde, and Gore himself even told us in an interview last fall that the coaches were using other backs (Hunter and Anthony Dixon) in goal-line situations to try to preserve the veteran starter and limit the number of big hits he takes. And more disconcerting is his ever-diminishing role in the passing game. Back in 2010, Gore was still a big factor as a receiver, with 72 targets. But his targets were down to a very disappointing 26 in 2013, his lowest since his rookie 2005 season (22), when he wasn’t even the starter. We did have some concerns about Gore wearing down last season, and he ended up playing through knee and ankle issues down the stretch and into the playoffs. In addition to playing every game each of the last three seasons, the 49ers have now made appearances in the last three NFC Championships, so Gore has played an additional eight games over that span. Gore continues to play at a very high level for this late stage of his career, but the 49ers are prepared if he starts to fall off this season, so fantasy owners should follow suit. He may slip further than his 53 ADP, but anywhere near 50 is a bit too expensive for our tastes.
 
Joique Bell (Det, 58 ADP) – We pumped up Bell last season as a late-round pick, and he turned out to be a monster value. Bell topped 20 FP in a PPR league on five separate occasions last season, including both times Reggie Bush missed games. But Bell also had a whopping eight games with fewer than 10 FP in a PPR league. To put it bluntly, Joique was a total boom-or-bust proposition from game-to-game last season. His high ADP this summer seems to assume that Bell will handle more of the rushing load this year than Bush, and we’re not sure about that happening. Bell could have a larger role, but we’re told Bush should still be the lead back and see the majority of the snaps, so Joique’s price tag seems a little too high right now. He certainly has the chance to be very productive this season, but new Lion OC Joe Lombardi is coming from a Saint offense that failed to give consistent production to multiple running backs, and Theo Riddick could even see significant snaps in a three-back rotation. And there’s another name that has to be brought up: Mikel Leshoure. His career has been nowhere, but this is a new staff and he does have talent and is another year removed from his Achilles. So we’d be a lot more comfortable with Bell a round or two later.
 
Darren Sproles (Phi, 70 ADP) – HC Chip Kelly acquired another toy for his offense this off-season when the Eagles traded for the versatile Sproles. Kelly will likely ask Sproles to do a little bit of everything for the Eagles this season, including lining up in the slot and in the backfield. A significant chunk of Sproles’ snaps could also be in 2-RB sets, with starting RB LeSean McCoy also on the field. Still, Sproles may get around only 7-9 touches per game, which will make it tough for him to be a consistent fantasy producer on a weekly basis. Sproles had more targets (89) last season than all Eagles RBs combined (82), so he may not be as active this season as he steps outside of the pass-happy Saints’ system. And keep in mind last year he wasn’t that great because his receiving TD total dropped from 7 to 2. As we’ve always said, receiving TDs for RBs can be fluky. Kelly did use smaller backs at Oregon (Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James), but those backs didn’t catch a lot of passes under Kelly. Sproles could have more success as a runner in this Eagles’ spread system like some of Kelly’s smaller backs at Oregon, as Sproles will get some looks against light boxes on some outside zone runs. Sproles is certainly one of the tougher calls this year, but he’s unlikely to be a viable #2 RB in a PPR if his targets are going to dip as expected. We see him more as a fantasy depth option now, but he’s being drafted in the neighborhood of other #2 RBs.

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