Wednesday, June 11, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #12 (2014 Draft Plan)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #12
Published, June 11, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #12: 2014 Draft Plan - 6/11 

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  • Off-Season Report #13: 2014's Overvalued & Players to Avoid
  • 2014 Player Profiles - Late June 

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2014 Draft Plan


by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 6/11/14 

As I prepared to write up this year’s draft plan, I found myself focusing on a comment made to me by someone who read it and used it last year. He’s an actor/comedian you may have seen on television, but he’ll remain nameless because his identity is immaterial.
 
So I asked him last fall about how his season was going and how our recommendations were working out for him. I actually don’t even recall what he said because I was captivated (read: obsessed) by a remark he made about last year’s draft plan. He said he felt it was a bit “obtuse,” meaning it wasn’t exactly clear. I certainly appreciated his candor, so while my first inclination was to throw him in the hole indefinitely – like the warden in Shawshank who was agitated after Andy Dufrense used that word to describe the prison boss – I took a step back and concluded that he might be right.
 
In my defense, I’ve always included flexibility in this plan, and it’s just not wise to definitively map out a precise plan of action without having some flexibility worked into it. I’ll always be flexible because it can be impossible to predict how a fantasy draft will go, and there are many paths to a fantasy title. But I am striving to tighten up the plan this year to give a little more in terms of specific direction, for those who want it. I’m also relating this year’s Draft Plan more than ever to our Values & Players to Target article, as you’ll see. So be sure to check out both pieces as we move along this summer. The Values & Players to Target article will tell you who we like and why we like them this year, and this draft plan will help you understand how you should be looking to acquire them.
 
Before I get to this year’s plan, a reminder that this version is really just a primer, and that I see a lot of players to whom I could easily be giving love in August if things go well, but it’s way too early to isolate them. This initial plan is pretty comprehensive, but it’s hardly complete here in June.
 
The Quarterback Plan
 
I’m happy to announce that I can kick off this year’s plan of action with a tip that is concise, pointed, and hopefully shrewd (i.e. the opposite of obtuse): hold off on drafting your quarterback.
 
Yes, I know many fantasy titles were won last year by those who drafted Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, and many were doomed from the start if C.J. Spiller was the pick in Round One. But you know what’s worse than missing out on a winning formula or approach in a given fantasy season? It’s overreacting and insisting the following season on doing what you regretted not doing the year before – only to be wrong again.
 
Drafting Manning or Brees can never be a bad idea, and it certainly wasn’t for another FantasyGuru.com reader who is quite famous. After the season he told me that he basically ignored my advice and went ahead and took Peyton in the first round, with amazing results. If you’re reading this now, sir, good job!
 
That was a great example of being ahead of the curve, but doing it again this year is not being ahead of the curve, and it’s probably not a good move. That’s especially true with a guy like Manning, who’s coming off a career year. The last time Manning was coming off a dream season in 2004, his TD dropped from 49 to 28, a fall of almost 40%. It’s just the nature of sports and sports statistics. I’m more cognizant than ever this year to try to avoid over-paying for the previous season’s production, so I’m going to try my best to avoid Manning.
 
So when it comes to the studs like Manning, Brees, and Aaron Rodgers, my mindset is to let someone else draft them. Of course, if one of them slips a little, like into the 3rd round, and I’m a little stuck and not yet sold on the remaining high-end skill players as a top 25-30 pick, then it only makes sense to consider someone like Brees or Rodgers with a little value added into the equation. My sense this year is that Rodgers is the best value among the studs (I felt this way about Manning last year), but he and Brees seem to be going off the board around the same time, which is the late-2nd or early 3rd round in a typical 12-team draft.
 
I do want to add one more tip – which I hope doesn’t muddy the QB draft plan waters and make this puppy more obtuse – and that’s to consider who you’re drafting against. If you happen to be drafting against a bunch of fantasy hacks who don’t really know what they’re doing, drafting a top QB can be done with great success. That’s because your clueless draft mates will likely screw up several times as the draft progresses and help some excellent values and sleepers fall to you at a very low price. But assuming you’re drafting with a group that has a semblance of a clue, drafting a QB too early is going to leave your roster vulnerable, and you could end up being weak in one key position, like RB.
 
But the advice to hold off on a QB is, more than anything else, a function of the wonderful QB depth available in 2014. If you can resist the urge to draft a top QB in the first three rounds, then you have plenty of options, and I’ll get into them now.
 
Plan #1 – Don’t play the game of QB chicken and secure one with your fourth pick (around 35-45 overall). I have no real qualms with this plan, but in competitive leagues, it’s probably not going to give you your absolute best chance to form the strongest possible roster. If you go this route, the options are clearly Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford. I’m a huge Luck fan and think he might actually go down as the best QB to ever suit up, so I obviously prefer him. His reliable and consistent rushing production gives him the edge over Stafford, who admittedly may have more upside given his myriad weapons in Detroit.
 
Plan #2 – Show even more restraint and get even more value for the position, if not a potential steal. As much as I love Luck, he’s not a tremendous value compared to some of the players in this group, so this is my ideal plan. Granted, his ADP is lower than usual for a reason, but I love Robert Griffin III in this tier, but I’m also very bullish on Colin Kaepernick this year (even with realistic expectations in this conservative offense). You also have the stability of Matt Ryan, and Nick Foles is kind of a combination of stability and upside. Foles might be a safer bet than RGIII or Kaepernick, and he has some upside. Ryan is just rock-solid, and he could possibly slip further than expected and actually stand out as the best overall value of the group, given his reliability. These four players should usually be available in the 6th to 7th rounds, or 60-80 picks into a draft 
 
Plan #3 – Go all the way with the QB game of chicken (you and likely 1-2 others) and target a solid option in the 8th round or later. Your options should include players like Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, and Tom Brady. Newton and Brady may not make it that far, but the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football (Romo) and Cutler should fall to this range. That’s 13 QBs listed, so for those in 14-team leagues, I’ll add Russell Wilson to the list.
 
Each of these three plans are practical, so having some flexibility in mind while you draft is recommended, but I’d probably prefer plan #2 followed by plan #1 and then plan #3. As much as I’d prefer to hold off a little on a QB, I rarely hold off until the bitter end, since I’m usually hell-bent on acquiring an option with a legit chance to put up top-3 numbers, but after the first 2-3 rounds. That makes Luck one of my favorite options, but Griffin III might be my top choice, considering the value. But if you’re strongly inclined to avoid risk and are willing to pay a little for a potential stud, then Luck is the perfect selection.
 
And when you’re looking for your backup, the first thing you should consider is who your starter is. You can check out the schedule to find some options who have good matchups on your starter’s bye week, but that’s only one game. What I’m really saying is that, who you pick for your backup should have some relation to who you’re rolling with as your starter. For example, if you drafted the incredibly durable Brees or Luck, then you can hold off a little later than most to add your QB2. If you draft a shakier option with some possible pitfalls, or if you’re looking for upside in general, then you need to get a little more aggressive and try to secure a guy who has starter potential. But in general, there’s no reason to be overly-proactive about drafting your backup, since the depth at the position is very good this year.
 
Cutler and Wilson could easily be available for you to draft as a backup, with Cutler a great upside option and Wilson more of a steadier and safer choice. Otherwise, my favorite back-up options in general are Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, and Ryan Tannehill. Dalton is a really nice, safe pick with obvious starter potential (top-5 in most leagues last year), whereas Tannehill is a solid pick a little later for some upside. Big Ben and Palmer are stable options who are appealing for anyone, and both have a smidge of upside (especially Palmer, considering his lower ADP).
 
Those four are high-end backup options, but there is a final tier of backup QBs I’d be comfortable with as a backup: Eli Manning, Josh McCown, and Johnny Manziel. The Giant offense is new and could need some time to develop, but I’m pretty high on Eli’s low 150 ADP and chances of surprising in a good system for him and I actually talked to him on June 10th and he’s also excited and energized by it. McCown played brilliantly last year and has a lot to work with in Tampa, and we know Manziel will run. In larger leagues especially, guys like Joe Flacco and EJ Manuel aren’t bad options, and Manuel has a speck of upside due to his running, but I’d rather not have to rely on any of those two as my backup.

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All Rights Reserved 
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