Friday, June 6, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #11 (2014's Values & Players to Target)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #11
Published, June 6, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #11: 2014's Values and Players to Target - 6/6 

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UP NEXT:

  • Off-Season Report #11: 2014 Draft Plan
  • Off-Season Report #12: 2014's Overvalued & Players to Avoid
  • 2014 Player Profiles - Late June 

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2014's Values and Players to Target

Published, 6/6/14

 

When it comes to the fantasy landscape, some years are better than others.

 

Last summer we didn’t have a great feeling about the stability of the fantasy player pool, and while our Values & Players to Target list was slightly better than usual, it definitely was an unusually chaotic season.

 

The good news is we see a factor at play this year that might very well make our jobs a little easier. This year, we see a disproportionate number of quality players coming off down seasons, and several of them are of the post-hype sleeper variety. This season looks like a year to not only take advantage of the improved value of many ’13 underachievers, but moreover it’s also going to be important to avoid overpaying for 2013 production.

 

We’re trying to be a little more judicious with our picks this year, so we have fewer than year’s past. Previously, we’ve listed more no-brainers that we like but we’ve trimmed that list down, and more than ever this year’s list narrows the focus even further to reveal the players were are truly targeting, as well as our favorite value picks. We’ve dissected the 2013 season by scouring the numbers and we’ve analyzed the 2014 schedule and all the off-season activity to trim a player pool of about 250 players/teams (minus the obvious studs) down to about 100.

 

Note: For simplicity’s sake, any reference to draft rounds in this article reflects a 12-team league, and reference to specific ADP selections refer to the player’s standing in a 12-team PPR league. For more insight, including full up-to-date charts for both PPR and non-PPR leagues, check out our ADP analysis.

 

Picks 1-30

 

Quarterback Targets

 

None of note.

 

Quarterback Values

 

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Once again, the depth at QB looks so juicy that we’re not actively recommending a “target” in the first two or three rounds of a 12-team draft (and certainly not in smaller leagues). But if the options at other positions in the late second, early third round don’t look particularly appealing, Rodgers is the QB we recommend going after. Obviously, it appears unlikely his ADP will come close to Peyton Manning’s late-first, early-second round number, and we also feel as if Rodgers is just as well-equipped as Peyton to have a monster year (in fact, we have him ranked higher). Although the Packers have questions at TE, they’ve got a strong run game and have reloaded at WR, losing James Jones but promoting Jarrett Boykin and adding three rookies in the draft. His early ADP data suggests he’s available at the second/third-round cusp. He’ll be picked around Drew Brees, and we get the sense that Brees will go before him more often than not due to Aaron’s missed time last year. They’re very close and both have a juicy schedule, but Rodgers gets the nod due to his rushing production.

 

Running Back Targets

 

Montee Ball (Den) – Do we have questions about Ball? Absolutely. He struggled with fumbles and pass pro last year, and he isn’t a special talent by any stretch. But we don’t have questions about this offense – it’s an offense that harbored a top-5 PPR back last year (Knowshon Moreno), and that was despite Ball occasionally taking 10-15 touches. Behind Ball so far, the Broncos have little-used C.J. Anderson, the disappointing Ronnie Hillman, and a slew of UDFAs. Playing with Peyton Manning remains a boon to a running back, and if Peyton stays healthy, Ball should get between 10-15 TD opportunities by accident. He has to clean up his game around the margins, but remember that he outplayed Moreno down the stretch last year (5.9 YPC to 4.4 YPC over the last eight games), and the Broncos saw enough to let Moreno walk to Miami on a cheap deal. Indeed, Ball himself has said he’s much more comfortable with Peyton’s audibles and style this year than last. He also hauled in 18 of his final 22 pass targets on the year, so he’s far from a zero as a receiver. Because of the situation, Ball should be an appealing mid-to-late first-round pick in all formats, but his early-summer ADP has him in the early second round. That’s a potential steal if it holds, and we’ll take him in the first round if it has to be done.

 

Le’Veon Bell (Pit) – Bell has many things going for him in 2014. First and foremost, the Steeler offensive line improved throughout the 2013 season, and the zone-blocking scheme of new OL coach Mike Munchak is a perfect fit for his one-cut, vision-based running style. Additionally, he’s a really good receiver (45 catches in 13 games last year), often used on wheel and downfield routes by the Steelers last year. The signing of backup RB LeGarrette Blount does give us some pause, as there’s little fantasy players hate more than a TD vulture. And Bell has, on paper, one of the tougher schedules for RBs this season. But we remain in Bell’s corner because Blount is a zero in the passing game, and Bell should play enough in third-down situations to make up for whatever TDs Blount may steal. Keep an eye on Blount’s role throughout the summer, but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said in early June that he isn’t expected to have more than a rotational role (around 8 carries a game), and Blount’s lack of third-down ability should keep Bell on the field in those PPR-friendly situations. In ways, you can squint and see some production similarities between Bell and Eddie Lacy, and while Lacy may be a “safer” player, as of early summer Bell was about 10 picks cheaper (17 to Lacy’s 7). If you get Bell in the 2nd as he’s been going, you’re doing very well.

 

DeMarco Murray (Dal) – Murray’s health remains the biggest deterrent to drafting him – he’s never played more than 14 games in a season. However, everything else is shaping up as a positive, aside from maybe the health of QB Tony Romo. Not only have the Cowboys improved their already strong offensive line through the draft, but there are also major question marks behind Murray in this backfield. That makes Murray the Cowboys’ top back in every major situation – early-down, short-yardage, third-down, goal-line. If healthy, he should see around 20 touches per game in Scott Linehan’s pass-friendly offense, and he’s an excellent receiver – 53 catches on 66 targets last year. Because of his health, Murray’s early-summer ADP hovered around the mid second round (#18 overall). To us, anywhere in the second round is a beautiful risk for a guy who was a top-5 PPR performer last year. And heck, getting that kind of production for only 12-14 games can be a valid enough reason to take him in the first. We still worry about availability, but the fact is Murray is a stone cold lock to come through if he’s on the field, and that’s mighty appealing.

 

Giovani Bernard (Cin) – The concerns are certainly there for Bernard. The Bengals spent a second-round pick on thumper Jeremy Hill, who has some foundation-back qualities, and as of early summer, BenJarvus Green-Ellis remained on the roster. But we figure that run-game guru Hue Jackson certainly realizes that Bernard is a special talent – despite only 226 touches last season (14.1 per game), Bernard ranked in the top 15 among PPR RBs. In fact, Jackson loves him. Should Bernard’s touches even hold steady, he’s a damn nice player to have as a high-end #2 PPR RB. But our guess is Jackson envisions 2 to 3 more touches per game for Bernard, and we’ll take those table scraps for a player who was productive with a lesser role in 2013. Despite not getting a lot of goal-line opportunities, Bernard averaged nearly a full fantasy point per touch last year, so he was one of the more efficient backs. If he adds even 25 more touches on the year (a conservative estimate), the same point-per-touch production would move him into the top 10-12 at RB in a PPR. With a second-round ADP, that’s a value. He obviously takes a hit in a non-PPR, but we doubt someone like Jackson will purposely limit a special mover like Bernard in his backfield, even if Hill impresses this summer.

Running Back Values 

Alfred Morris (Was) – Morris was a major disappointment last year, often going in the late first round even in PPR drafts, and winding up a low-end #2 in that format, averaging 11.6 FPG. In hindsight, pushing a guy who had 11 catches as a rookie was a mistake. But how much can we actually blame on Morris? His touches fell from 346 in 2012 to 285 last season, 21.6 per game to 17.8. That was almost entirely because the Redskins were historically bad in 2013, falling from a division winner to 3-13. Even the biggest critics of the Redskins wouldn’t have expected a drop-off that severe. Morris, who was a serious grind-out-a-win guy in 2012, was often watching from the sidelines in the second half as Washington hopelessly tried to come back from a halftime deficit. Morris wasn’t the problem last year at all. Even if QB Robert Griffin III improves marginally and new coach Jay Gruden can install some stability here, Morris’ touches should rise just because his team will be better next season. And remember there is no clear-cut third-down guy here like Gio Bernard was for Gruden last season – there should be a camp battle between Roy Helu, Lache Seastrunk, and Chris Thompson. If Morris gets the early-down and goal-line work, and can haul in between 15-20 passes (which Gruden says he’d like to see), his current third-round ADP in a PPR league (late second-round in a non-PPR) makes him a very appealing bounce-back candidate. Finally, let’s not forget that both FB Darrel Young and Helu had 3-TD games last year, mostly from short range. If Morris gets 5 of those 7 he’s a top-15 pick this year. As it stands, you might be able to get him in the 3rd down.

 

Wide Receiver Targets

 

Demaryius Thomas (Den) – Thomas’ 19.9 FPG last season ranked him one spot behind Calvin Johnson, but Demaryius was also available for all 16 games and was more consistent – he had only one game below 10 FP in a PPR league, while Calvin had four and didn’t play in two others. Given Calvin’s consistent health issues, we’re confident in ranking Demaryius as our #1 fantasy WR for the 2014 season, and he’s generally available five or so picks after Calvin (#9 overall to Calvin’s #4 in a PPR). Also remember he scored 14 TDs last year with Peyton Manning, and the Broncos have to replace 11 TDs from Eric Decker in the passing game (they did sign Emmanuel Sanders and drafted Cody Latimer). It’s hard to predict a guy to score as many as 14 TDs again, but Demaryius seems to be in as good a position to repeat that feat as anyone. If you’re not sold on a RB later in the 1st and even if Calvin is available, we think Thomas is a good pick in what is also a contract year for him.

 

Julio Jones (Atl) – Jones’ season-ending foot injury and subsequent surgery has left him unable to even work out in OTAs, but the Falcons insist he’ll be ready for training camp. He was running and cutting in early June, which is a great sign. If it’s clear he’s able to work out at close to full capacity come late July, he’s going to be among our favorite second-round picks (ADP of 15 at initial publication time in early-June). Health may always be a concern, but note that Julio put up 22.3 FPG last year in a PPR before getting injured, just .2 FPG behind Josh Gordon’s historic season (and he did some of that on the injured foot before he discovered he needed surgery). He was fantastic. Along with Calvin Johnson, Julio is the only WR in the NFL to finish top-12 in FPG in a PPR in each of the last three seasons. While health may always be a concern, Julio simply produces for QB Matt Ryan. And with Atlanta not signing or drafting a replacement for Tony Gonzalez, expect a ton of three-WR sets. Those catches and red zone targets need to go somewhere.

 

Randall Cobb (GB) – Cobb’s another early-round receiver coming off an injury-plagued season. But we have one advantage with Cobb that we don’t have with Julio Jones: we saw him play (and produce) at the end of the season, after returning from his early-season broken leg, including 2 TDs in his first game back in Week Seventeen. Cobb enters the 2014 season healthy, and the Packers have to replace the production of James Jones and Jermichael Finley. The Packers’ plan this off-season was to take Cobb off special teams and focus on moving him around the formation more, which indicates he should have a large role. And when healthy, this was a player who averaged 17.7 FPG in a PPR last year, tying him with Alshon Jeffery for #10 among WRs. His early-summer ADP of 28 suggests he’s available at the second/third-round cusp in a PPR league, which seems very fair for an upside-oriented young player catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, and whose game and role in the offense is expanding.

 

Wide Receiver Values

 

Jordy Nelson (GB) – Consistently one of the most underappreciated fantasy football WRs, Nelson’s ADP has finally crept into the second-round range, sitting at 24 in a PPR league in early summer. To us, that’s still absurd value. In 2013, Nelson played only eight games with Aaron Rodgers – Weeks One through Eight, and Week Seventeen. And he still managed to post numbers in both catch rate and yards per target that were significantly above league average yet again (67.5%/10.43). What’s more, consider his numbers in the first half of the season, when he played almost entirely with Rodgers and posted an absurd 72.2%/12.02 line, which is basically a Tecmo Super Bowl line. With Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien, and Matt Flynn taking most of the playing time after Rodgers’ injury, Nelson was still above league average in both categories. Overall, he ranked #13 with 16.5 FPG last season among WRs with 10 or more appearances, and that includes his time with the backup QBs in Green Bay. Not only do Rodgers and Nelson have perhaps the best chemistry of any QB/WR duo in the NFL, but remember also that Green Bay must replace the production of James Jones and Jermichael Finley. Nelson is an elite producer who, for some reason, occasionally falls into the third round of PPR and non-PPR drafts. He’s as desirable a late second-round pick as is possible, and should be the value target at WR for anyone drafting a running back early in the first round. We do like him more than Cobb, and he’s listed here because he’s a better value than Cobb.

Tight End Targets

 

Julius Thomas (Den) – While we don’t have Thomas above Jimmy Graham in our rankings for 2014, it’s apparent to us that Thomas is a more attractive pick. As of early summer, Thomas was available almost two full rounds later (pick 30) than Graham (pick 8) in a 12-team PPR league. So in other words, we feel it’s possible to come out of a draft with an early first-round pick with a clear #1 RB, #1 WR, and super-elite TE, a player whom we consider to be on a similar tier to Graham’s. Playing with QB Peyton Manning, Thomas scored 12 TDs in 14 games, and averaged 15.4 FPG, behind only Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Additionally, the Broncos have 24 TDs from the last two years gone with the departure of Eric Decker. While Thomas has some durability issues, so does Graham, and Gronk may be the most oft-injured elite player in the NFL. Should Peyton and Julius remain healthy, we think Thomas has a decent enough chance to produce on Graham’s level with a much cheaper pick. We don’t think a late second-round pick is ridiculous by any stretch, if a bit aggressive, but a third-rounder of any sort is a no-brainer.

 

Tight End Values

 

None of note.

 

Picks 1-30 All-In Group

Here are some players typically taken in the top 30 of a fantasy draft on whom we’re “All- In” in 2014.

 

  1. Montee Ball (RB, Den)
  2. Giovani Bernard (RB, Cin)
  3. Alfred Morris (RB, Was)
  4. Demaryius Thomas (WR, Den)
  5. Jordy Nelson (WR, GB)
  6. Julius Thomas (TE, Den)

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