This e-mail is from FantasyGuru.com's EXPIRED/FREE OFF-SEASON SUBSCRIBER mailing list. To remove yourself from this list, check the bottom of this e-mail.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Our 20th season will be our best!
Avoid the summer rush and renew today for the 20th season of FantasyGuru.com! For more info, see the links below.

6/28/14

Expired/Free Off-Season Mailing List Subscriber:
If you haven’t noticed already - follow us on Twitter for site updates @Fantasy_Guru - we've been posting a ton of content this week, so here's an overview.

First and foremost, we've posted our 2014 Player Profiles. One of our goals this year is to produce shorter articles (but more of them) that are more concise, but you'll have to excuse us for these profiles because they are absolutely massive (nearly 400,000 words). But if you want detailed analysis on a player's talent, offensive system, etc., with a ton of pertinent stats, it's here. You can download them in PDF form, access any player's profile on his player page, and within our DB. Or, if you just want the fantasy bottom line, we've also posted them separately.

Check out some 2014 Player Profile samples below!

We'll be sprucing up the player profiles on a player page in the coming days with added graphics and a photo, and in July we will once again be providing these extremely detailed profiles via our 2014 Player Profiles App, which is very slick and appealing to look at on an iPhone or iPad. There is a small fee for the app, but the content is obviously included in your 2014 subscription online.

Speaking of apps, our 2014 Draft Guru app is out! This year's version features several great enhancements, including an iPad version that looks fantastic. We'll be able to update and improve this app more even this year still, and we're planning on gathering feedback the next 1-2 weeks and implementing more improvements, plus adding IDPs. There is an Android version of the app that should be completed in early-July.

These apps are FREE with your 2014 subscription!

To keep track of all of the things we'll be rolling out this summer, make sure you check out our 2014 Site Help page.

We'll be posting many more articles in the coming weeks, such as:

2014 Position Battles - Coming next week
2014's Contract Year Players
2014's Breakout Receivers
2014 PPR Gold
2014 TD Vultures
And more

We've now published over 50 articles on a variety of topics, which are all on the site, but here's what's online now and has been posted in the last 2-3 weeks:

2014 Season Projections - 6/27
2014's Values and Players to Target - 6/27
2014 Offensive Line Previews - 6/26
2014 IDP Values/Overvalues - 6/26
2014 Player Profiles
2014 Fantasy Bottom Lines
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/25
Rookie Keeper League Top-100 (PDF) - 6/25
2014 Rookie Report - 6/24
League Setup: Keeper/Dynasty - 6/19
2014 Auction Plan - 6/17
Daily Fantasy Sports Glossary - 6/17
RBs on New Teams - 6/17
2014's Overvalued & Players to Avoid - 6/16
Depth Charts - 6/13
Auction Guidelines - 6/13
The Contract Year Hangover - 6/12
Interesting Twists in Standard Leagues - 6/12
2014 Draft Plan - 6/11
Player Acquisition After the Draft - 6/9

We've also posted:

2014 PPR Cheat Sheet (PDF) - 6/27
2013 PPR Top-200 (PDF) - 6/27
2014 Excel Custom Cheat Sheet - Create your own custom cheat sheet in excel and much more - Updated: 6/27
2014 Excel Pro Draft Tool - For advanced excel users, maximize your draft and more - Updated: 6/27
2014 Excel Simple Draft Tool - A basic excel tool to help you draft - Updated: 6/27
2014 ADP Data File - Our latest ADP data in excel includes ADP for PPR, non-PPR, Avg. $ values, etc. - Updated: 6/27
2014 Excel Auction Guru - For advanced excel/auction users, this robust tool will help you dominate your auction and upgraded for 2014 - Updated: 6/27

Keep in mind the next 3-4 weeks are the quietest of the NFL calender, so there won't be much to update on the site, but we'll be cranking out plenty of articles to gear up for the start of Training Camps.

2014 Player Profile Samples

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers (GB, 30)

Talent Overview: Rodgers still has a fantastic arm and the willingness to make any throw. His pocket movement is elite, and he doesn’t unnecessarily break the pocket unless he has to, despite being able to pick up first downs consistently with his legs. Rodgers plans to keep running when the opportunity presents itself, which is certainly good for his fantasy value. At his best, Rodgers can still beat the rush, even when his line isn’t great, and when Rodgers has time to throw, he’s quick with his decision-making and more precise with his ball location. Although he’s always flashed elite skill with his physical attributes, insane accuracy, a quick release, and the mobility to make plays on the move, he continues to find ways to improve and fine-tune his game. This year, he’s playing at a lighter weight, which should improve his movement and escapability. His rapport with his receivers is fantastic, and he usually does a good job of developing it quickly. What’s great about Rodgers is that he’s in total control of his game and gets the most out of his elite talent. While he has a strong group around him, Rodgers is still the most valuable part of the Packer offense and continues to make everyone around him better.

2013 Season/Stats Overview: The Packers suffered a near-devastating loss when Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone on his left side during a loss to the Bears in Week Nine. The Packers went winless in five straight games (four losses and one tie) without Rodgers, but the NFC North was dysfunctional and the Packers still won the division when Rodgers returned in Week Seventeen. He threw a clutch fourth-and-long deep pass to WR Randall Cobb for the game-winning score to qualify the Packers into the playoffs over the Bears. The Packers went 2-5-1 without Rodgers and 6-2 in the games that he started and finished, so it could be argued that he’s the most valuable player to his team in the NFL and the fantasy fortunes for the rest of the Packer skill players did take a major hit with Rodgers out of the lineup. He finished the year 193/290 (66.6%) for 2536 yards, 17 TDs, and 6 INTs in nine games, tying him for 4^th among QBs, with 23.0 FPG. He had his highest regular season completion percentage (66.6%), and he tied a single-game franchise record with 480 passing yards against the Redskins in Week Two.

It’s tough to compare Rodgers’ numbers to other starting QBs, since he missed seven games in 2013, but he was on his way to a strong season. He completed 66.6% of his passes at an excellent 8.7 yards per attempt, and hit for an astounding 13.14 yards per completion. Rodgers was sacked on 6.8% of his plays, which was right around the league average. He threw a TD on 5.9% of his throws and had 28 pass completions of at least 25 yards, which is a strong number, considering how much time he missed. Rodgers ended up with 6.3 yards per pass completion before the catch and had 1213 total yards before the catch. Rodgers averaged a fantastic 6.9 yards after the catch and totaled 1323 yards after the catch.

We can only wonder how great Rodgers’ numbers would have been if not for the broken collarbone that robbed him of almost half the 2013 season, but as one of the best in the game with plenty of weapons at his disposal, he should be on his way to a strong 2014 campaign.

Durability: Since taking over the starting job in 2008, Rodgers had missed just one game due to injury, a concussion in Week Thirteen of 2010. Unfortunately, a broken collarbone cost him seven games in 2013, but he was able to return and play well in the season finale. However, other than that, Rodgers hasn’t had any major injury issues of note.

System: The Packers still ranked among the league’s top offenses, despite losing Rodgers and Cobb for basically half of the season. The Packers finished 3^rd with 400.3 yards per game, 5^th in “successful plays” at 48.6%, and 4^th with 5.96 yards per play. The addition of RB Eddie Lacy helped them stay on the field, finishing 9^th best in 3-and-out drives and tied for 4th in drives that lasted at least 5 minutes.

The Packers remained among the elite offenses in 2013, tying for 7^th in offensive scoring (389) and 7^th in TD efficiency with 23.1. They made 65 red-zone drives

(t-2^nd) but ranked just 26^th in red-zone scoring efficiency (50.8%) and 15^th in “successful” red-zone plays (45.9%), so they missed Rodgers when the field got tighter. WR Jordy Nelson gave this offense some punch downfield, finishing 15^th in scoring outside the red zone (99).

HC Mike McCarthy deployed a balanced attack, ranking 19^th, with 57.3% of their plays being passes (615 attempts for 4,268 yards). The Packers were still 6^th with 266.8 net passing yards per game and 4^th with 65 completions longer than 20+ yards, even without Rodgers big arm for much of the season. Packer receivers dropped just 4.7% of their catchable passes (4^th), so they were pretty reliable, despite playing with several different QBs. The offensive line is still a major concern in Green Bay, allowing 45 sacks (24^th) last season.

The Packers became a little more balanced and effective running the ball this past season with the addition of Lacy in the backfield. This offense still remained one of the league’s best scoring offenses, even with Rodgers gone for a chunk of the season. This offensive line is still quite shaky protecting Rodgers, but as we saw last season, a steady ground game will only help this Packer passing offense.

Supporting Cast: The Packers lost WR James Jones to free agency and will likely not have TE Jermichael Finley back in the fold, but Rodgers’ still has plenty of options. Nelson and Cobb are the top options for Rodgers, and he has fantastic chemistry with both. WR Jarrett Boykin stepped up last season and should be ready for a regular role in 2014. The TE position is in a transition phase with names like Andrew Quarless and Brandon Bostickon the roster, but keep an eye out for 3^rd-round pick, Richard Rodgers. While the offense is typically carried by the passing game, the Packers finally found a reliable RB in Eddie Lacy, who proved he could do more than just keep the offense on schedule, as he had to carry a heavy workload as a rookie with Rodgers missing so much time.

The OL was an issue after the team allowed 45 sacks in 2013 and was not really addressed via the draft or free agency. The Packers have good, young bookend tackles with David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga and with Rodgers, they will get favorable 5 and 6 man boxes to run against and their pass protection will be substantially better.

Job Security: Obviously, Rodgers has nothing to worry about when it comes to his starting job, and he’ll likely be backed up by Matt Flynn once again.

Strength of Schedule: While the schedule against the run may not be good for the Packers, the schedule looks better for Rodgers and the passing game, with matchups against Det, Chi, Min, Car, Chi, Phi, Min, NE, Atl, and Det looking favorable on paper going into 2014. Their schedule Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen is not too shabby against NE, Atl, Buf, and TB.

Fantasy Bottom Line: Having a stud QB is nice, but it’s always wise to get value for the position, too, and Rodgers probably presents more value in 2014 than he has in years. His early ADP still has him at the end of the 2^nd round in a 12-team league, so he’s hardly a steal, especially since he does have more durability issues than someone like Drew Brees, and there are some concerns about the availability of some of his key receivers like Nelson and Cobb. But if he slips into the 3^rd round, Rodgers is much more appealing, and it’s worth noting that he gets the edge over Brees and Peyton Manning due to his production on the ground. We’d probably prefer to get one of the several high-end options who’ll be available 2-3 rounds later, but if you’re stuck 25+ picks into a draft and don’t have confidence in the remaining skill players available, there’s nothing wrong with grabbing Rodgers, especially if we’re talking about your third pick.

Andrew Luck (Ind, 25)

Talent Overview: It’s been only two seasons, but Luck has shown he possesses the physical skills, leadership abilities, and all the intangibles necessary to lead the Colt offense to success, even when he loses key components to injury, as he did in 2013. He’s an accurate thrower who changes his velocity depending on the throw he has to make, and has shown enough arm strength to make every throw necessary. Luck has had to deal with a shaky OL and while he can extend plays with his legs, we’d rather not see him under so much pressure. Of course, as one of the best all-around talents at the position, he does pretty good job of hanging tough in the pocket, which is wonderful for a young QB. Like any QB, he’ll make some poor decisions on throws downfield, and his pure arm strength, while very good, is not elite. At times, it seems like he tries to do too much, especially when he doesn’t have a lot of help at receiver, which can lead to a few too many turnovers. But he’s an excellent timing-and-rhythm passer who has a deep understanding of the game and can have success taking calculated shots downfield off play-action. Factoring in his running ability and size, Luck may actually be the most physically gifted QB in the league, and he’ll only get better. There’s no reason to believe Luck will do anything but improve heading into 2014, which is why we continue to believe the sky is the limit for his potential.

2013 Season/Stats Overview: Luck’s strong rookie season created high expectations coming into 2013. While he was transitioning to a new offense with the departure of OC Bruce Arians, the good news (or so we thought) was that Arians’ replacement would be Luck’s college OC, Pep Hamilton. While the Colts were aggressive and attacked downfield under Arians, Hamilton’s offense had more West Coast concepts, which we figured might hurt his YPA in more of a shorter passing attack while helping his completion percentage, which it did. His YPA dropped from 6.98 in 2012 to 6.71 in 2013. Unfortunately, the offense got a little too conservative at times and the attempts to establish a power running game came at the expense of Luck. We were frustrated to see the ball taken out of Luck’s hands too often, whether it is as a result of the play-calling or generally conservative nature of the team as a whole. Luck ended up going 345/572 (60.3%) for 3830 yards, 23 TDs, and 9 INT while adding 63/377/4 on the ground, which put him 9^th among QBs at 21.6 FPG. We thought Luck would end up a little higher on the season, but the losses of Dwayne Allen and especially Reggie Wayne certainly hurt. After Wayne was lost in Week Seven, Luck would hit 20 FP just four times over the rest of the year. Indy’s OL was an issue for Luck as a rookie and remained a problem in 2013, although he took just 32 sacks this past season compared to 41 in 2012.

With the Colts looking to shorten their passing attack from 2012 to 2013, we were a little disappointed to see Luck finish 24^th among QBs with a 60.2% completion percentage. That shorter passing attack did come through in the numbers when you see that Luck finished 32^nd in yards per attempt at 6.71 and 28^th in yards per completion at 11.14. Luck was one of the best QBs in terms of INT rate, finishing 7^th at 1.6%. He was sacked on 5.35% of his plays, which was the 9^th-most and a number that has to be concerning. Luck had TDs on just 4% of his throws (23^rd) and was tied for 18^th, with 25 completions of 25+ yards. Luck was tied for 33^rd at 5.3 yards per completion before the catch, but jumped to 15^th with 1808 yards before the catch. Luck’s after the catch numbers were a little better, as he had 5.9 yards per catch after completion (tied 12^th) and was 10^th, with 2014 yards after the completion.

For a player with such great talent like Luck, it’s fair to be disappointed by some of his 2013 numbers, but considering it was just his second year and the change in offensive philosophy – and especially his weak receiving corps – we’re not really worried, since he’ll have more weapons at his disposal and his development should only continue in 2014.

Durability: Luck has lived up to his name by being able to avoid major injury throughout his football career. Other than the battering he’s taken over the last two seasons, Luck hasn’t had any injury issues of note.

System: The Colts were a little better than average last season, finishing 15^th in the league, with 341.8 YPG. On successful plays, they were 12^th at 47.4% and were once again around average with 5.3 yards per play (15^th). They went three-and-out 22.9% of the time (16^th), but were just 21^st in “ball control” drives that ate up at least 5 minutes. Their time of possession was 22^nd, so the offense was pretty average as whole with some hints they could have been better.

The scoring was solid with 373 points (11^th), although their TD efficiency was a little disappointing at 20.2% (18^th). 50 red-zone drives had them right around average in the league (16^th). They were 14^th in both red-zone successful plays and red-zone TD efficiency, so they were solid but could certainly be better. Their offense was helped by ranking 6^th in scoring outside the red zone.

At times, we felt the team took the ball out of Luck’s hands too often, but they finished in the top half of both passing plays (14^th, 58.7%) and pass attempts (15^th, 582). However, that was good for just 17^th in passing yards (3725) and net passing yards per game (232.8). The downfield passing attack wasn’t great, as Indy ended up 24^th in the league, with 45 completions of 20+ yards. We worried about Luck getting hit too much, but they allowed just 32 sacks (6^th fewest).

Losing Allen and Wayne certainly hurt, and the lack of production from the RB position put the Colts in a tough spot, but we know they can be very good thanks to Luck being one of the most talented players at the position. Getting back those injured players and the addition of WR Hakeem Nicks, in addition to another year in Hamilton’s offense has us believing this offense can be very dangerous. We’d still like to see more reliance on Luck, as he’s without a doubt the real deal and someone who can make everyone around him better. And later in the season, they appeared to use the pass to set up the run, and with success, so we’d think that trend will continue in 2014. Also, Hamilton said he’s taking more a “score-first” approach this season, and that is music to our ears.

Supporting Cast: Luck is the type of QB who makes everyone around him better, but it’s still asking a lot of a second-year QB to excel without top targets like Wayne and Allen on the field for a significant portion of the season. With both of those players returning, as well as the addition of Nicks and WR T.Y. Hilton coming off a strong season, Luck does have plenty at his disposal. We’d like to see a little more out of TE Coby Fleener and the team does have some interesting WR depth with players like Da’Rick Rogers and 3^rd-round pick, Donte Moncrief. They’ll hope Richardson can bounce back from a terrible 2013 season and would probably consider significant contributions from Vick Ballard and/or Ahmad Bradshaw a bonus.

The OL still concerns us, since Luck has been hit way too much, but they are fairly young on the OL and did select Jack Mewhort in the 2^nd round of this year’s draft. The Colts will be better at center and right guard, which should improve the pass protection.

Job Security: Luck is the franchise QB and will hopefully remain that player for years to come for the Colts. Matt Hasselbeck will back up Luck in what will be his final NFL season.

Strength of Schedule: The Colts definitely get some support from the schedule, and it looks good for Luck and the passing game, as Den, Phi, Jac, Ten, Jac, Was, Dal, and Ten look like beatable matchups. In Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen, the schedule looks promising enough against Was, Cle, Hou, and Dal.

Fantasy Bottom Line: Luck is not a fantasy prospect without some blemishes, but the good news is that he’d command a higher draft pick if he didn’t have any flaws. With an ADP of about 50 overall, he’s not a steal compared to some other second tier options at the position. But due mainly to his rushing production and his overall elite qualities, there’s upside to be had from even drafting him in the 4^th round of a typical league. If all goes well with his revamped and seriously-upgraded receiving corps, and he continues to run as he has his first two seasons, then a top-3 finish at QB is well within reach for the durable Luck. That potentially makes him one of the best options at the position this year when you consider his value, production, and reliability.

Running Backs

Montee Ball (Den, 23)

Talent Overview: On the surface, Ball has average size (5’10”, 215 pounds) and average speed, without another gear to run away from defenders. However, he’s a smooth, gliding runner with excellent patience, but also possesses the decisiveness to hit a hole when it presents itself. He’s willing to take on contact, although he doesn’t have ideal size for that kind of runner. That all said, he does everything the Broncos look for in their backs, including catching passes well and protecting the QB, so he’s the type of back who can handle three-down work. He also has an eye for the endzone. He’s more physically gifted than his predecessor Knowshon Moreno, but like Moreno had to early in his career, Ball has to clean up the ball-security issues that landed him on the bench as a rookie (3 fumbles on 139 touches).

2013 Review: Ball may not have contributed as early as the Broncos would have liked in 2013, but he did play very well after a slow start. As a rookie, Ball totaled 119/560/4 rushing (4.7 YPC) and 20/145/0 receiving on 27 targets (74.1%). He ranked 52^nd among RBs with 7.2 FPG. Playing through fumbling and pass pro issues, Ball contributed sparingly through Week Ten, averaging only 3.4 FPG over that span. But after that, with Denver making a concerted effort to limit Knowshon Moreno’s touches, Ball became a big contributor down the stretch and in the playoffs. Over the final seven games of the regular season, he averaged 12.0 FPG, and ranked 27^th at the position. He had 78 touches over that span, and averaged 6.0 YPC.

Ball was stuffed at the line of scrimmage on 8.3% of his runs, a pretty low number, and he gained 10 or more on 11.7%, so he more than made up for those stuffed runs. While he had a higher percentage of 10-yard runs than Moreno (10.8%), Moreno got stuffed on far fewer runs (5.8%, an elite percentage) than Ball did. Moreno’s percentage was more impressive than Ball’s was unimpressive, however.

As a receiver, it’s a small sample with only 27 targets, but Ball did double his catch rate percentage in the second half of the season (from 40% to 81.8), and he impressively caught 18 of his 22 targets from Week Eleven through Week Seventeen. It’s fair to expect him to keep up that 3.1 targets/game pace from those final seven weeks with Moreno gone, and if he can pick up even 20 more targets with Moreno out of the mix, Ball has a chance to hit 50 catches if he can maintain a solid 75% catch rate, which was his season average.

Durability: Ball didn’t land on the injury report once during his rookie season. And despite touching the ball about 1000 times in college, Ball had no red-flag injury issues entering the league. He’s a physical runner, but he’s had no injury problems thus far and has been very, very durable.

System: There’s really no offensive breakdown of the Broncos that will tell you what you don’t already know – they were absolutely ridiculous in 2013, putting together what is by most accounts the greatest offensive performance in the history of the NFL. First of all, this remains a pass-heavy team. The Broncos threw the ball 60.1% of the time in 2013, which ranked them at 11^th-most in the NFL. But among playoff teams, only the Saints (63.8%) threw the ball more. But Peyton’s dominance helps on the ground, although there is room for improvement there. The Broncos’ average of 4.06 yards per rush was 12^th-fewest in the NFL, and their percentage of runs gaining 4-plus yards sat at 42.1%, another number in the bottom half of the NFL. For a team that saw so few stacked boxes, this number should be better. Perhaps that was the reasoning behind Denver allowing Knowshon Moreno to walk.

Anyway, the Broncos had 14 red-zone rush TDs, tied for 5^th-most in the NFL, and they tied for the NFL lead with 16 late clock-killing drives, so there will be opportunities for whoever is the starting back. That is almost certainly Ball this year.

Supporting Cast: Yeahh… about that. Playing with Peyton Manning has done wonders for running backs and their stats. We also have perhaps the NFL’s best WR/TE set and a solid offensive line getting LT Ryan Clady back from injury, but let’s not go into paralysis by over-analysis. As long as Peyton is healthy and calling the signals, this is a dream situation for a back (see Moreno).

Job Security: During the off-season, the Broncos gave their greatest vote of confidence to Ball by essentially doing nothing – they let Knowshon walk, they didn’t sign a back, and they didn’t draft a back. With Ronnie Hillman spending most of 2013 in the doghouse and C.J. Anderson remaining an unknown for the most part, 2014 is shaping up to be Ball’s year.

Strength of Schedule: We went on and on about how great Denver’s schedule looked last year, and the Broncos took full advantage and ended up having what many believe to be the greatest offensive season in history. It’s not as easy in 2014, but they still benefit from playing in the weaker AFC West. The schedule is indisputably tough against the run in the first half of the season, though. There are matchups against Sea, Ari, NYJ, and SF very early in the season, but things do get much easier in the second half with matchups against SD, NE, Oak, Stl, Mia, KC, Buf, SD, Cin, and Oak. So if you don’t draft Ball, prepare to trade for him early in the season if he has a so-so September. The playoff schedule looks okay too – KC, Buf, SD, and Cin.

Fantasy Bottom Line: We do have questions about Ball. He struggled with fumbles and pass pro last year, and he isn’t a special talent by any stretch. But we don’t have questions about this offense – it’s an offense that harbored a top-5 PPR back last year in Moreno, and that was despite Ball occasionally taking 10-15 touches. Behind Ball so far, the Broncos have little-used Anderson, the disappointing Hillman, and a slew of UDFAs. Playing with Manning remains a boon to a running back, and if Peyton stays healthy, Ball should get between 10-15 TD opportunities by accident. He has to clean up his game around the margins, but remember that he outplayed Moreno down the stretch last year (5.9 YPC to 4.4 YPC over the last eight games), and Ball himself has said he’s much more comfortable with Peyton’s audibles and style this year than last. Because of the situation, Ball should be an appealing mid-to-late first-round pick in all formats, but his early-summer ADP has him in the early second round. That’s a potential steal if it holds, and we’ll take him in the first round if it has to be done.

Giovani Bernard (Cin, 22)

Talent Overview: One of the most dynamic young backs in the NFL, Bernard comes off a great rookie season looking to build on his production and put up bigger numbers in 2014. Bernard is only 5’ 8” and 202 pounds, but his legs are strong enough to carry defenders and he runs with a low center of gravity, so defenders can’t square him up, a la Ray Rice in his prime. Bernard has really quick feet and a short stride, so he can surprise defenders with quick, explosive, lateral cuts. He has great vision and patience, allowing lanes and holes to develop, which make him very effective on screen and draw plays. While he’s quick laterally, he doesn’t have extreme breakaway speed, although he’s able to generate big plays by using his underrated physicality to break tackles. His receiving was as natural as we could have hoped as a rookie, and even his pass protection improved as the year went on. He also held onto the ball, fumbling only once. Bernard, despite being categorized as a “smaller” back, has the total package you look for in a potential fantasy stud.

2013 Review: The Bengals needed to add more dynamic weapons to their offense in 2013, and they got off to a heck of a start with Bernard, whom they made the first running back taken in last April’s NFL Draft. An excellent receiver who excels in open space, Bernard managed to put up big numbers in those areas while also surprising us with how well he ran between the tackles. Rotating snaps about evenly with BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the season, Bernard posted 170/695/5 rushing (4.1 YPC) with 56/514/3 receiving on 71 targets (78.9%) and ranked #15 in a PPR league among all RBs, with 14.1 FPG. Clearly, it was Bernard’s receiving ability that made him an appealing fantasy player. His 56 catches and 514 yards ranked him #8 at his position, while his 3 receiving TDs tied him for 4^th.

However, it was his surprising power for his frame that made him a guy to whom the Bengals were willing to give double-digit carries on 11 occasions, including in each of the final seven games of the season. Only five times all year did Bernard fail to produce double-digit fantasy points in a PPR league, which is pretty good for a guy who essentially split snaps and touches. One area where we would like to see Bernard improve – only 8.8% of his carries went for 10 or more yards, below league average (10.8%) and not the number you’d expect from a back with Bernard’s skill set.

Among RBs with 20 or more targets, only LeSean McCoy and Knowshon Moreno averaged both a higher catch rate (78.9%) and more yards per target (7.24) than Bernard did. Take a look at the final finishes for McCoy and Moreno in a PPR league if you want to know why we’re so excited about Bernard next season, playing under RB-friendly OC Hue Jackson. Gio was also really consistent in both categories from the first and second half of the season.

Considering Bernard went over 100 yards from scrimmage only twice all season and touched the ball inside the five-yard line only 8 times (although he was used inside the goal more than some expected), these numbers exhibit how much room there is for him to grow as a fantasy back.

Durability: Bernard’s a tough runner, despite his stature, as he played in every game and landed on the injury report only twice in 2013, with a hamstring tweak in Week Three and a rib injury in Week Ten (the latter of which seemed to affect him slightly for a game or two). But dating back to college, he does have more issues. He tore his ACL as a freshman in 2010, and he obviously missed the entire season. Knee issues popped back up at the start of 2012 along with a shoulder problem, which forced him to miss two games. Fortunately, he appears to be over those issues.

System: It’s entirely possible that the Bengals relied too much on Andy Dalton last year, but did they really? They actually threw the ball 56.2% of the time, placing them at 10^th-fewest in the NFL, with the league average sitting at 58.3%. And the Bengals were also really good in the red zone – scoring TDs on 73.9% of their drives that reached the red zone, second to only the Broncos in the NFL. When they got inside the five, they converted 85.7% of their drives into TDs. And in the red zone, they averaged 3.4 yards per play, again #2 in the entire league. They just didn’t get to the red zone enough – bottom 10 in such drives.

So what should new OC Hue Jackson do to help? Our suggestion will be to run it a bit more. The Bengals were the 7^th-worst team in the NFL when it comes to runs of 10 yards or more, with just 36. Their first-down runs of four yards or more were 11^th-worst, at just 40.1%. Their average of 3.65 yards per rush tied them for 5^th-worst in the NFL. These things will happen on a team on which the plodding Green-Ellis gets more than 200 carries (He averaged 3.4 YPC to Bernard’s 4.1). Jackson is a run game guru, and we’d expect to see a better Bengal ground attack in 2014.

Supporting Cast: The Bengals have one of the NFL’s best receivers in A.J. Green, some intriguing ancillary pieces in Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert,Jermaine Gresham, and Mohamed Sanu, plus a solid offensive line (though they have to replace Anthony Collins). Should QB Andy Dalton find some level of consistency, this would be an even better place for a running back to thrive. As it is right now, even with the uncertainty surrounding Dalton, it’s still a dangerous offense that must be respected down the field, and Hue Jackson’s system should coax consistency out of the offensive line.

Job Security: This year, it’s only a matter of how much Bernard touches the ball under run game specialist Hue Jackson. In 2013, he was a very good PPR back while playing 54% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps. The club still (for now) has BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but also added a gifted volume-type runner in Jeremy Hill in the draft. Bernard can still put up numbers while playing between 50% and 60% of snaps, but do the Bengals prefer him on the lower end of that spectrum? This year, it probably depends on how well Green-Ellis and/or Hill assert themselves. This area isn’t a huge concern, but it does likely limit Gio’s upside. Still, he’s going to be their starter and he’s going to get 250-300 touches if healthy.

Strength of Schedule: The Bengals don’t have the prettiest schedule against the run, with matchups against Bal, Car, Bal, Cle, NO, TB, Pit, Cle, and Pit. The playoff schedule also isn’t great, against TB, Pit, Cle, and Den. The Bengals have the talent to overcome their tough matchups, but note their schedule doesn’t look to be among the prettiest in the league.

Fantasy Bottom Line: The concerns are certainly there for Bernard. The Bengals spent a second-round pick on Hill, who has some foundation-back qualities, and as of early summer, Green-Ellis remained on the roster. But we figure that run-game guru and new OC Jackson certainly realizes that Bernard is a special talent. In fact, Jackson loves him. Should Bernard’s touches even hold steady, he’s a damn nice player to have as a high-end #2 PPR RB. But our guess is Jackson envisions 2 to 3 more touches per game for Bernard – 250-300 for the season – and we’ll take those table scraps for a player who was productive with a lesser role in 2013. If he adds even 25 more touches on the year (a conservative estimate), the same point-per-touch production would move him into the top 10-12 at RB in a PPR. With a second-round ADP, that’s a value. He obviously takes a hit in a non-PPR, but we doubt someone like Jackson will purposely limit a special mover like Bernard in his backfield, even if Hill impresses this summer.

Alfred Morris (Was, 25)

Talent Overview: Morris is one of those guys you simply have to watch on film to appreciate. Despite his lack of a “wow” skill set, he gets to the perimeter very effectively, and he’s tough to stop on pitch/toss plays. He doesn’t run particularly well side-to-side, but he’s powerful and does have quick feet and a nice short-area burst, so he does enough of the “little things.” He’s a decisive one-cut inside runner with patience and vision who can play a two-down role in coach Jay Gruden’s offense, but he’s been a zero as a receiver and is (unfortunately for PPR players) best as part of a platoon. However, Gruden may give him a few more table scraps in terms of snaps on passing downs.

2013 Review: Morris finished with 276 carries for 1275 yards (4.6 YPC) and 7 TDs, ranking 27^th among RBs with 11.6 FPG. Morris continued to be a complete non-factor in the passing game, catching only 9 passes for 78 yards. Morris finished 4^th in the league in rushing yards and had a league best 10 carries for 20+ yards. However, Morris did have major ball-security issues this past season, with four lost fumbles, which is totally unacceptable for a big-time back (Morris also lost 3 fumbles during his rookie season in 2012). The Redskin offense obviously struggled in comparison to 2012, but Morris managed to look good overall, with three 100-yard games.

However, those three games were down from seven in 2012, and his four games with 20 or more carries were down from a whopping 10 in 2012. Blame the offense’s inconsistency for that. It also wasn’t good for Morris that twice he had a backup RB vulture 3 TDs from him in a single game – Roy Heluin Week Seven and Darrel Young in Week Nine.

As you might expect for a guy like Morris, he was stuffed at the line of scrimmage on 10.1% of his carries, not a terrible nor a great number, but he also had 10.5% of his runs gaining 10 yards or more, certainly solid enough for a guy of his skillset. The biggest problem for Morris, who came off the field in almost all passing situations, was the Redskins’ lack of ball-control opportunities late, not surprising for a 3-13 team playing from behind in almost every game. That’s a major change from 2012, when Washington won the division and was constantly playing with the lead in the second half, which led to many more carries for Morris.

System: New coach Jay Gruden has his critics, but he did get the Bengals to three straight playoff appearances with Andy Dalton. The big question of course is if Gruden maxed out Dalton’s abilities, or if he is partially to blame for Dalton’s inconsistencies, or perhaps throwing it too much with him. Whatever the case, Gruden does now have an infinitely more gifted QB in Robert Griffin III. And he has a bell cow RB in Morris. The Redskins ran the ball on 40.9% of their plays in 2013 (17^th), way fewer than they would have liked. They ran the ball 58 times in the red zone (17^th) and scored on 12 of those runs (15^th).

The Redskins were dead last in clock-killing drives last season and 4^th in 2012, which is a direct result of the club playing without a lead in most second halves. It’s a huge reason Morris’ yardage fell off so badly. Look for Gruden to lean on Morris, but also to try to get him some more chances in the passing game. This West Coast offense should benefit both Griffin and the run game.

Durability: Morris has landed on the injury report only twice in his career, for a minor rib injury in 2013 and a minor illness in 2012. He hasn’t missed a game yet. In fact, going back through his career at Florida Atlantic, Morris hasn’t had many injuries in his career, and he played through an ankle injury in 2009, a good sign for his toughness.

Supporting Cast: The Redskins were a disaster last year, but after trying to get that out of the mind, there is a lot appealing here when it comes to investing in the run game. First of all, QB Robert Griffin III helps open up lanes with his own dangerous running ability. This could be a deadly passing game, which would be big for Morris.

The offensive line, while not great, does have a very good anchor in LT Trent Williams, and the zone-blocking scheme helps. And now with the addition of DeSean Jackson, Washington has two players on the perimeter defenses must account for at all times, in addition to WR Andre Robertsand TE Jordan Reed inside. This could be a pretty dangerous offense.

Job Security: Morris played only 53% of the Redskins’ snaps last season, often coming off the field when the team was trailing (which was almost every week in the second half). He was also ignored in passing situations, despite having a little bit more ability as a receiver than you might think. We’d bet on Morris still being a two-down thumper, which could continue to be a concern in Jay Gruden’s West Coast scheme. That said, there’s no clear third-down option on this roster (Roy Helu, Chris Thompson, and Lache Seastrunk will battle it out), and Morris should see more carries in 2014 just by virtue of Washington being a better football team.

Strength of Schedule: It’s a mixed bag, but our projected SOS at least has the Redskins with a top-15 schedule against the run. We see some positive matchups like Jac, Ten, Dal, Ind, and Dal, but also some clearly tough matchups against Sea, Ari, TB, and SF. The good news – the playoff schedule looks great outside of Week Fourteen, with matchups against Ind, Stl, NYG, and Phi.

Fantasy Bottom Line: Morris was a major disappointment last year, often going in the late first round even in PPR drafts, and winding up a low-end #2 in that format, averaging 11.6 FPG. In hindsight, pushing a guy who had 11 catches as a rookie was a mistake. But how much can we actually blame on Morris? Morris, who was a serious grind-out-a-win guy in 2012, was often watching from the sidelines in the second half as Washington hopelessly tried to come back from a halftime deficit. Morris wasn’t the problem last year at all. Even if RGIII improves marginally and Gruden can install some stability here, Morris’ touches should rise just because his team will be better next season. If Morris gets the early-down and goal-line work, and can haul in between 15-20 passes (which Gruden says he’d like to see), his current third-round ADP in a PPR league (late second-round in a non-PPR) makes him a very appealing bounce-back candidate.

Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson (GB, 29)

Talent Overview: Nelson is one of the more underappreciated WRs in the league, but there’s no denying his chemistry with QB Aaron Rodgers since Nelson’s breakout season in 2011. Nelson has fantastic size (6’3”, 217 pounds), but he also has deceptive speed as a vertical route runner, running past defenders to make big plays down the field. His hands are very good. Nelson played more in the slot last year with Randall Cobb out of the lineup, and he showed his versatility to make plays all over the field, including in the underneath areas. Nelson is the go-to receiver in this offense, which has been an excellent fit for him, and his skill set warrants that the Packers get him the ball on a consistent basis.

2013 Season/Stats Review: Nelson had to deal with the likes of Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, and Seneca Wallace at QB for half the season, and he was only 22^nd at WR with 126 targets, yet he still managed to set career highs in receptions (85) and yards (1314). His 15.4 YPC was up from 2012 and above his career average of 14.6 heading into 2013.

He finished the year with 85/1314/8 (15.5 YPC) on 126 targets (67.5% catch rate), ranking him 13^th among WRs with 16.5 FPG. Jordy was a top-3 fantasy WR through the first eight weeks of the season with Rodgers in the lineup, catching 39/649/7 for 20.8 FPG in seven games. Nelson had only six games with a TD, but he was tied for 7^th at WR in 100-yard games (5). He was good for 10 or more fantasy points in a PPR in 13 of his 16 games. Even though Rodgers missed just under a half a season, Nelson still managed to yet again post numbers in both catch rate (67.5%) and YPT (10.43) that were significantly above league average (68.1%/10.35 in 2012). He posted an absurd 72.2%/12.02 line in the first half of the year with Rodgers. Nelson was 10^th at WR with 867 yards at the catch point, so he was catching the ball down the field, as usual, which makes his strong catch rate and yards-per-target numbers look even better. Nelson also led the league with 19 catches that went for 25+ yards. Jordy finished 7^th at WR with 23 red-zone targets and 8^th in the league with 6 goal-line looks, which resulted in 6 red-zone TDs.

Jordy played on 97% of the snaps last season, so he almost never left the field, but even though his 126 targets last year were a career-high, his target number should be going up with two key receivers gone from 2013. If we give him just 20 more targets this year, his 2013 numbers project to 98 catches for 1522 yards. If we used his numbers in the first half of 2013, when he played almost entirely with Rodgers, his numbers project to an obscene 105/1754. In short, the numbers are begging us to draft Nelson high in 2014.

Durability: Nelson had an extremely frustrating 2012 season because of lingering hamstring issues, but he stayed on the field in 2013 and didn’t show up on the injury report. However, he did have a knee scope just before the season that did scare away some fantasy owners, but Nelson showed no ill-effects from the minor procedure. Nelson missed four games in 2012, was severely limited in another game with just 1 target, and left another game in the first quarter after just 1 catch. Nelson’s hamstring injury real sapped his explosiveness in the second half of that season, but he was back to form in 2013 and had no issues. Nelson has now played full seasons in three of his last four seasons.

System: The Packers still ranked among the league’s top offenses despite losing Rodgers and Cobb for basically half of the season. The Packers finished 3^rd with 400.3 yards per game, 5^th in “successful plays” at 48.6%, and 4^th with 5.96 yards per play. The addition of RB Eddie Lacy helped them stay on the field, finishing 9^th in 3-and-out drives and tied for 4th in drives that lasted at least 5 minutes.

The Packers remained among the elite offenses in 2013, tying for 7^th in offensive scoring (389) and 7^th in TD efficiency with 23.1. They made 65 red-zone drives (t-2^nd) but ranked just 26^th in red-zone scoring efficiency (50.8%) and 15^th in “successful” red-zone plays (45.9%), so they missed Rodgers when the field got tighter. Nelson gave this offense some punch downfield, finishing 15^th in scoring outside the red zone (99).

HC Mike McCarthy deployed a balanced attack, ranking 19^th with 57.3% of their plays being passes (615 attempts for 4,268 yards). The Packers were still 6^th with 266.8 net passing yards per game and 4^th with 65 completions longer than 20+ yards, even without Rodgers big arm for much of the season. Packer receivers dropped just 4.7% of their catchable passes (4^th), so they were pretty reliable despite playing with several different QBs. The offensive line is still a major concern in Green Bay, allowing 45 sacks (24^th) last season.

Supporting Cast: We saw last year that Rodgers clearly makes this passing offense go, as the Packers clearly slipped with him out of the lineup. It doesn’t hurt that he can spread it around to weapons like Cobb and Jarrett Boykin, and stud Lacy is there to keep opposing defenses honest. The Packers are weak at TE with the loss of Jermichael Finley, so Packer WRs might have to pick up some slack.

The future is bright for the Packers OL and we would buy stock in this unit becoming the best in football by 2015. The Packers have good, young bookend tackles with David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga and we love what they are doing at center. With Rodgers, they will get favorable 5 and 6 man boxes to run against and their pass protection will be substantially better.

Job Security: Nelson will see the majority of snaps this year as long as his hamstring issues don’t creep up on him like they have in the past. The Packers let Greg Jennings and James Jones walk the last two seasons, and Nelson has had contract extension talks with the Packers, so they think highly of their top WR.

Strength of Schedule: The schedule looks better for Rodgers and the passing game than it does for the running game. They have matchups against Det, Chi, Min, Car, Chi, Phi, Min, NE, Atl, and Det that all look favorable on paper going into 2014. Their schedule in Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen is not too shabby against NE, Atl, Buf, and TB.

Fantasy Bottom Line: Consistently one of the most underappreciated fantasy football WRs, Nelson’s ADP has finally crept into the second-round range, sitting at 24 in a PPR league in early summer. To us, that’s still a great value. Not only do Rodgers and Nelson have perhaps the best chemistry of any QB/WR duo in the NFL, but remember also that Green Bay must replace the production lost with Jones and Finley gone. Nelson is an elite producer who, for some reason, occasionally falls into the third round of PPR and non-PPR drafts. He’s as desirable a late second-round pick as is possible, and should be the value target at WR for anyone drafting a running back early in the first round. If he plays 14-16 games, he’s a lock to come through as long as Rodgers is out on the field with him.

Keenan Allen (SD, 22)

Talent Overview: Allen made an immediate impact as a rookie last season because of his strong hands and crisp route-running. Allen has decent size (6’2”, 206 pounds), but he’ll never be confused for being a physical freak. Allen is above-average in just about every area, and his versatility helps him make plays at all levels of the field. He showed that he’s much more talented than his 3^rd-round selection, with sneaky athletic ability and a wide-catching radius. Allen drew comparisons to Reggie Wayne because he saw a lot of time in the slot and is a smooth receiver who finishes well. Allen showed refined route-running for such a young player, which certainly endeared him to QB Philip Rivers. Allen isn’t a vertical threat, but he plays faster than he times and shows good instincts with the ball in his hands. Allen might not have the same athletic ability as some of the elite NFL WRs, but he should continue to be effective because of his superior route-running, hands, and competitiveness. He’s spent a lot of time this off-season working on his speed, as well.

2013 Season/Stats Review: Allen went from almost quitting football after being a healthy scratch in Week One to developing into the Chargers’ #1 receiver by the end of the season. Allen had 71/1046/8 (14.7 YPC) on 104 targets (68.3% catch rate), which was good enough for 21^st among WRs at 14.9 FPG in 15 games. He was one of four wide receivers who had 90 or more targets who caught 65.0% or more of their targets and averaged 10.0 YPT or more (Allen averaged 10.06). Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, and DeSean Jackson were the other three WRs to accomplish the feat.

Allen reached 100 yards five times (t-7^th) last season, but he failed to reach 100 yards in the final four games when the Chargers went run heavy. However, Allen had 9 or more targets five times in 2013 and he went over 100 yards every time. Allen scored 6 of his 8 TDs in the red zone, as he had21 red-zone targets (t-11^th) and 6 goal-line looks. Keenan played on 90% of the snaps during his rookie year, so he rarely left the field as a rookie. He averaged 8.6 yards at the catch and 6.2 yards after the catch, and he had 8 catches go for more than 25+ yards. Allen became the go-to guy for Rivers last season, and he should be for years to come.

Durability: Allen didn’t play a snap in Week One based on a coach’s decision, but he began to emerge shortly after that. He fell to the 3^rd-round of the 2013 draft because of some questions about his bad knee. Allen missed time late in 2012 because of a PCL injury, and the injury forced him to not participate at the Combine or at this pro day. Durability questions naturally began to pop up, but he stayed relatively healthy in his first NFL season. Allen did suffer a shoulder injury during the season, but he played through the issue and posted strong numbers. The knee is also considered to be in better shape this year than it was in 2013.

System: Efficiency was the name of the game for the Chargers in 2013, which is a big reason they were 5^th in the league at 393.3 yards per game. They led the league in successful plays (53.7%) and 5^th in yards per play (5.9). No team had a lower percentage of three-and-out drives (13.8) and San Diego was the best team when it came to ball control drives and time of possession.

They were 7^th in offensive scoring at 389 points and 5^th in TD efficiency (24.6%). They were among the best in red zone drives (59), but they didn’t have an abundance of success inside the 20. They were 16^th in successful RZ plays and 26^th in RZ TD efficiency. However, despite not fitting the mold of a typical big-play offense, they were 11^th in scoring out of the red zone.

A change in offensive philosophy saw the Chargers take some of their reliance off Rivers, as they were 26^th in pass plays % (53%) and 22^nd in pass attempts (544). However, they were 4^th in passing yards (4328) and net passing yards per game (270.5). Even though they got away from the vertical passing attack used often in previous season, San Diego still ranked 7^th with 60 completions of at least 20 yards. By getting the ball out quick, the team was able to mask a makeshift OL and allowed just 30 sacks, which was good for 4^th fewest in the league.

Under HC Mike McCoy, the Chargers went from a vertical passing attack to a shorter, quicker passing game with more reliance on their ground game. The end result was one of the most efficient offenses in the league that helped Rivers have a bounce-back season and kept their shaky defense off the field. As always, keeping players like RB Ryan Mathews healthy is a key, but this group could be even better if Allen continues to develop after a strong rookie season and another receiver emerges to provide another reliable target for Rivers.

Supporting Cast: Allen doesn’t have an elite group of receiver next to him, as the Chargers don’t have a true #2 WR and TE Antonio Gates is starting to show his age. The Chargers leaned heavily on Mathews and the running game in the second half of last season, but Rivers will once again look Allen’s way a lot when he throws the ball, and Rivers is extremely capable, so Allen is in good shape here.

The unsung heroes of the 2013 season were the wide bodies up front and offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris. The Chargers don’t have the best talent up front, so they play to their strength, which is pounding the ball while Rivers looks to get the ball out quickly. Defensive coordinators have gone to school on this scheme and OL group so things could get tougher for them this year.

Job Security: Allen quickly established himself as the Chargers’ go-to receiver as a rookie last season, and he’s still easily Rivers favorite target heading into the season.

Strength of Schedule: We discussed the favorability of the Charger schedule last year against the run and the pass (we ranked them both top-5), and that was almost certainly a factor in their surprising success on offense. This year’s schedule is tougher, but it does look better for the pass than it does for the run. They will face only one truly elite pass defense (Sea), but they do have some other matchups that could be very challenging (Ari, Buf, Bal). The Charger offense was amazingly good in so many areas in 2013, and it’s fair to wonder if they’ll fall a little short of higher expectations their second time around with the new (in 2013) coaching staff and with a schedule that looks a little tougher. Their schedule in Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen isn’t great but not ridiculously tough against Bal, NE, Den, and SF.

Fantasy Bottom Line: We were so impressed with Allen last year that we’re already sold after only one season. He’s the go-to guy in the Charger offense for a resurgent Rivers, and he was amazingly competitive off the line and throughout his routes last year. What’s most impressive is that he was still feeling the lingering effects of his knee issue in 2013. He’s healthy this year, and he’s been working hard on improving his long speed, so he could be even better in 2014. We think he’s a viable #1 PPR receiver, but his early-summer ADP of 32 suggests he can possibly be your #2. He should be a target in the third round for everyone, especially a team that starts RB/RB, RB/TE, or RB/QB in some fashion.

Mike Wallace (Mia, 28)

Talent Overview: Wallace’s best commodity is his vertical speed, and no one would dispute that fact. He still got open plenty of times downfield in his first season with the Dolphins, but he couldn’t get on the same page with QB Ryan Tannehill nearly enough. Wallace emerged as one of the league’s most effective deep threats in 2010, and it earned him a big contract with the Dolphins. Wallace can easily run past defenders, but he has short-area quickness and usually a lot of cushion from defensive backs to work underneath. He’s not complete receiver or a polished route-runner, so he doesn’t do much work in the intermediate area. He’s going to beat opposing defenses when he gets the ball in stride down the field or underneath when he can make plays after the catch.

2013 Season/Stats Review: Wallace never developed into the big-time deep threat for the Dolphins in his first season with the franchise. He posted 73/930/5 (12.7 YPC) on 136 targets (53.7% catch rate) and finished 32^nd among WRs at 12.5 FPG. Wallace’s 6.84 YPT was abysmal for a receiver of his skill set, but at least his numbers improved from 49.23 catch rate/6.5 YPT to 57.3%/7.09 over the second half of the season.

He finished with four 100-yard games (t-16^th) but only 2 TDs of 30+ yards. He added 2 scores form inside the 20-yard line on 11 red-zone targets (t-43^rd) and 2 goal-line looks. Wallace played on 93% of the snaps last season, so the Dolphins kept him on the field. He averaged a surprisingly low 8.9 yards at the catch and 3.9 yards after the catch, and he had 9 catches go for more than 25+ yards. Wallace never really got on the same page with Tannehill, whether it was Tannehill overthrowing or underthrowing Wallace, so that needs to change in 2014.

Durability: Wallace continues to stay on the field throughout his five-year career, as he’s missed just one of 80 possible games so far. Wallace missed the first game of his four-year career in the final game of the 2012 season because of a strained hip. The Steelers were out of contention at that point, so Wallace had no reason to suit up in the final game. He showed up on the injury report this past season with groin and hamstring issues, but Wallace’s durability continues to be a strong suit.

System: Frustrating is a good word to describe the Dolphin offense, which finished 27^th with 312.9 yards per game last year. With 5 yards per play, they ended up 24^th in the league and were only a little better in successful plays, 45.9% (19^th). The scary numbers continue when you look at three-and-out drives (23^rd, 23.7%), ball control drives (28^th), and time of possession (28^th). That’s just a bad offense falling well short of expectations. They weren’t even average.

Miami was 23^rd in offensive scoring (301 points) and 24^th in TD efficiency (16.5%). Surprisingly, they did well in the red zone, when they actually got there. They ranked just 24^th with 46 RZ drives, but were 3^rd in successful RZ plays and 10 in RZ TD efficiency. They didn’t do much else, ranking 30^thin scoring outside of the red zone.

Wallace struggled and so did Tannehill, but that didn’t stop the Dolphins from tossing it around. They were 4^th in pass play percentage (63%) and 10^thin pass attempts (594). However, that didn’t translate to success, as they were 20^th in passing yards (3567), net passing yards per game (222.9), and 20+ yard completions (47). Oh, and they couldn’t protect their second-year QB, allowing a league-high 58 sacks.

While we know the injuries in the receiving corps and myriad of OL problem both on and off the field couldn’t be predicted, the team didn’t do much to adjust, which may explain why they got rid of OC Mike Sherman. Some of the blame has to fall on HC Joe Philbin, but we’re hoping he’s learned the error of his ways and will listen to the concepts new OC Bill Lazor brings with him from a successful 2013 season with the Eagles. Miami refused to commit to Lamar Miller or Daniel Thomas last season, but we’re hoping the addition of Knowshon Moreno marks a change in their hesitance to running the ball. The jury is still out on Tannehill, but as the numbers suggest, he was put in a bad situation and didn’t get much help digging his way out.

Supporting Cast: Tannehill will look to take a leap this year in his third season, and it would certainly help if he could throw a better deep ball to Wallace, although the new scheme should alleviate some of those concerns. WR Brian Hartline and TE Charles Clay provided reliable targets for Tannehill last season, and rookie WR Jarvis Landry could do the same out of the slot. This O-line is still a major work in progress, and the group must give Tannehill more time to operate this season.

The Dolphins never recovered from the Incognito/Martin mess, and Tannehill paid the price with sack after sack. Veteran Branden Albert will shore up the left tackle spot while rookie #1 pick Ja’Wuan James brings plus pass protection as his primary strength. We’re not a big fan of the running game potential with the Dolphin guards, and James is an average-to-below-average run blocker at tackle.

Job Security: The Dolphins invested a lot of money in Wallace last off-season, so he’ll be given every opportunity to make more plays for the offense this season. It’s been reported that he’s not the most liked player on the team, but he has rare vertical speed to change a game. New OC Lazor is planning on moving Wallace all over the field this season, so hopefully he can have a DeSean Jackson-like impact.

Strength of Schedule: Without a shutdown defense on the 2014 schedule, Miami’s slate of matchups looks favorable this year. Things look a little better for the pass over the run, with beatable-to-favorable matchups against Buf, KC, Oak, Chi, Jac, SD, Det, Buf, Den, NYJ, Min, and NYJ. There really isn’t a top pass defense on their schedule, which is good news for QB Ryan Tannehill and his receivers like Mike Wallace. Their schedule in Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen is pretty decent against NYJ, Bal, NE, and Min.

Fantasy Bottom Line: Wallace was one of our biggest “players to avoid” last year, given an inflated ADP and questions about moving to a new team. But he’s also an example of how value can shape the lens through which we view a player – at an early-June ADP of 93, he’s extremely appealing because it’s possible he can be had as a #3 or even #4 PPR WR at that point. The new offense under Chip Kelly disciple Lazor has Wallace excited at the chance to be used close to the line of scrimmage and in a variety of spots like DeSean was last year. That gives him an upside element he’s lacked to this point in his career. Inconsistent or not, Wallace was a top-30 PPR WR last year, and things will only get better in his second year in Miami, so we are very excited with Wallace’s prospects and fantasy upside from his ADP.

Tight Ends

Julius Thomas (Den, 25)

Talent Overview: Thomas is one of the “basketball athletes” who have been so popular at the TE position since Tony Gonzalez helped define it, and guys like Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham have carried on the tradition. Like Graham was coming out of college, Thomas was an unrefined athlete who flashed impeccable receiving skills, but last year was a big year in his development, thanks to his health finally cooperating and, of course, playing with Peyton Manning. A freak athlete, Thomas could line up in-line, in the slot, or out wide and provide unique matchup advantages in each spot. He needs to improve as a blocker, but he gave the Broncos one of the league’s best young TEs and another deadly addition to Peyton’s group. If Thomas wants to become a complete player, blocking would be the only thing he really needs to improve on, but we doubt the Broncos are too worried about that, since his stock has risen so much after coming into last year with just one catch over his first two seasons. Thomas is a threat all over the field, but he’s deadly in the red zone, and with so much talent around him, it makes it that much more difficult for the opposition to cover him. He’s already become one of the best at this position and has plenty of time to get even better. In fact, Thomas admitted he was able to get by on self-confidence and athleticism last year and knows he can get better, which is a scary thought and a great one for fantasy owners.

2013 Season/Stats Overview: Thomas posted 5/110/2 in Week One, catching Peyton’s first of 55 TDs on the year (he also caught Peyton’s record-setting 51^st TD). Julius finished with 65/788/12 receiving on 90 targets (12.1 YPC, 72.2%) and ranked #3 among all TEs, with 15.4 FPG. He had two 100-yard performances, catching 2 TDs in each. In 14 games, he had 10 double-digit PPR performances and was a no-brainer for inclusion in lineups.

Thomas caught 72.2% of his targets and had 8.76 yards per target. Thomas as the only TE to play 10 or more games, see 30 or more targets, catch 70% of his targets, and average over 8 yards per target. A break-out season for Thomas got off to a great start with 110 yards in the opener, and he’d follow that up with 122 yards in Week Five, but other than 96 yards in Week Ten, he wasn’t able to top 80 the rest of the way. Eight of his 12 TDs came in the red zone, and he was tied for 5^th, with 18 RZ targets and tied for 18^th with 3 GL targets. Thomas had 388 yards at the catch point and 5 catches of at least 25+ yards.

With 87% of the snaps in 2013, Thomas was very busy in his first year as the starter and we should note he missed two games. With Eric Deckergone, Thomas could be even busier in 2014, and that’s great news, especially since Manning is throwing him the ball.

Durability: Thomas battled ankle and knee issues last season and ended up missing two games. The high ankle sprain Thomas suffered in Week Two of the 2011 season continued to bother him all year and limited him to just five games as a rookie. Thomas would end up undergoing surgery for torn ligaments about a month before the 2012 draft and struggled to recover. So durability concerns do exist with Thomas.

System: There’s really no offensive breakdown of the Broncos that will tell you what you don’t already know – they were absolutely ridiculous in 2013, putting together what is by most accounts the greatest offensive performance in the history of the NFL. Their unfortunate end to the season against Seattle certainly taints their accomplishments somewhat, but fantasy owners have plenty of reasons to still be excited by Manning and company. The Broncos ranked #2 in the league in yards per play (6.33, only slightly behind Philly), and were #1 in the league in yards per play inside the red zone (3.62). This, along with their ridiculous overall TD efficiency (35.1% of their drives ended with a TD, league average of 19.8%) and red-zone TD efficiency (76.1%, league average of 55.5%), meant the Broncos were able to break the NFL scoring record with 606 points in 2013.

First of all, this remains a pass-heavy team. The Broncos threw the ball 60.1% of the time in 2013, which ranked them at 11^th-most in the NFL. But among playoff teams, only the Saints (63.8%) threw the ball more. But with Peyton at the helm and his ridiculous set of weapons, the Broncos’ decision to throw it like crazy is certainly defensible. The Broncos led the NFL in overall passer rating (114.4), passing first downs made (293), and yards after the catch (2751). Their 37 red-zone passing TDs were a ridiculous 12 more than any other team in the NFL. The Broncos were particularly fond of throwing the ball to WR Demaryius Thomas short and letting him do the rest, and it helped serve as a surrogate to the running game. The Broncos also came out attacking early – their 65.2% passing in the first half of games ranked them #3 in the NFL. Their goal was to build leads early and hold them late (they threw it 55.6% of the time in the second half, only 11^th-most in the league). Their 62 total points scored on their first possession of games, unsurprisingly, ranked them #1 in the entire NFL.

The Broncos, not surprisingly, were elite in the big play department. Their 77 plays of 20 or more yards ranked them behind only Philadelphia, while their 275 plays of 10 yards or more were most in the entire league. This was a team that struck quickly and violently. Denver’s average scoring drive was only 7.54 plays long – 10^th fewest in the NFL. And they could strike from anywhere, with 20 TDs coming from outside of the red zone. It was double the league average, and behind only Philadelphia.

Supporting Cast: Obviously, the biggest reason to be excited about Thomas is that he’s catching passes from Manning, which boosts the value of any receiver. Even with the loss of Decker to the Jets, the Broncos have a plethora of weapons to work with in 2014. Defenses have to worry about Thomas and that takes attention away from Julius. Wes Welker is still very dangerous working out of the slot, and while he’s been slowed by injuries, specifically concussions, we know he’ll be a reliable option if he’s on the field. The loss of Decker could be offset by the additions of WR Emmanuel Sanders and/or 2^nd-round pick, Cody Latimer, whom the Broncos traded up to get in this year’s draft. Sanders will likely play outside this season, but the eventual plan could be to move him inside with Latimer playing on the outside.

The Broncos will roll with Montee Ball as their lead back, and he has shown the ability to handle a role as a receiver. The Bronco running game took a step forward last year, while the protection rarely mattered since Manning got rid of the ball so quickly. The offensive line is in better shape with LTRyan Clady back from injury.

Job Security: Thomas finally got a chance to start last season and never looked back, as he developed into one of the best TEs in the game. Only a few others have the kind of great job security Thomas has, which is pretty amazing considering how little he accomplished before last season.

Strength of Schedule: We went on and on about how great Denver’s schedule looked last year, and the Broncos took full advantage and ended up having what many believe to be the greatest offensive season in history. It’s not as easy in 2014, but they still benefit from playing in the weaker AFC West. For the passing game, the schedule looks easier than for the run, with only one truly problematic matchup (Sea in Week Three) and several solid ones against Ind, KC, NYJ, SD, NE, Oak, Stl, Mia, KC, SD, Cin, and Oak. It looks like Broncos still have a top-12 schedule against the pass this year. InWeeks Thirteen through Sixteen, it doesn’t look bad at all against KC, Buf, SD, and Cin.

Fantasy Bottom Line: While we don’t have Thomas above Graham in our rankings for 2014, it’s apparent to us that Thomas is a more attractive pick. As of early summer, Thomas was available almost two full rounds later (pick 30) than Graham (pick 8) in a 12-team PPR league. So in other words, we feel it’s possible to come out of a draft with an early first-round pick with a clear #1 RB, #1 WR, and super-elite TE, a player whom we consider to be on a similar tier to Graham’s. Playing with Manning, Thomas scored 12 TDs in 14 games, and averaged 15.4 FPG, behind only Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Additionally, the Broncos have 24 TDs from the last two years gone with the departure of Decker. While Thomas has some durability issues, so does Graham, and Gronk may be the most oft-injured elite player in the NFL. Should Peyton and Julius remain healthy, we think Thomas has a decent enough chance to produce on Graham’s level with a much cheaper pick. We don’t think a late second-round pick is ridiculous by any stretch, if a bit aggressive, but a third-rounder of any sort is a no-brainer.

Kyle Rudolph (Min, 24)

Talent Overview: Rudolph has looked good when he’s been able to stay healthy, which has been tough and is far from a given. Rudolph may not dominate the way some of the top TEs in the league do, but in new OC Norv Turner’s system, he’s definitely someone who can be featured, and we saw how well that went for TE Jordan Cameron in Cleveland last year. Rudolph’s a big, strong, fairly athletic TE who can be a terror in the red zone, and he’s the type of player who can and should become the focal point of an offense, although unlike previous seasons, the Vikings have more talent around Rudolph in the receiving corps and have more of a reliable option at QB in Matt Cassel. Rudolph could improve as a blocker, but we doubt the Vikings are too worried about that, as he should be focusing on dominating as a receiver. He may not be one to stretch the field, but he can be a tough matchup for a smaller safety or LB and Minnesota should look to exploit those mismatches when they have them. It’s fair to say that in this offense, Rudolph has his best chance to succeed.

2013 Season/Stats Overview: Rudolph was limited to 8 games and landed on the IR due to a foot injury. He had 30/313/3 (10.4 YPC) on 45 targets (66.7% catch rate) and was 18^th among TEs, with 9.9 FPG. He scored double-digit FP in just three games and ended the season with 5 RZ targets and 2 GL targets. Rudolph had at least 5 receptions in just two games.

Rudolph caught 66.7% of his targets at 6.96 yards per target. While his YPT was below average in 2013, remember that he ended his season early with a foot injury, before he got to work with the Vikings’ most consistent QB, Cassel, on a regular basis. And he still caught an above-average percentage of his targets. Rudolph did noticeably improve his catch rate and YPT in 2013. He was up to 68% from 57% in catch rate, and his YPT increased from a miserable 5.3, so there was the improvement that he seemed to be poised for in the preseason. Other than 97 yards in Week Six, he never had more than 51 yards in any other game. None of his TDs came in the red zone after scoring 8 of 9 TDs in the RZ back in 2012.

Rudolph average 85% of the snaps per game in the little we saw of him last season. We like he chances to bounce back, as long as he stays healthy, and he should remain a strong red-zone target, no matter who plays QB for the Vikings.

Durability: After going two seasons without missing a game, Rudolph missed the final eight games of 2013, thanks to a broken foot. He’s been running since February and will have no issues heading into 2014. He’s battled concussion and shoulder issues in previous seasons, but his last season at Notre Dame was marred with major injuries: A sore hamstring limited his downfield speed, and eventually, Rudolph tore the hamstring off the bone, requiring season-ending surgery. And in the previous off-season, he underwent surgery to repair a separated shoulder.

System: Even with Adrian Peterson, it’s a little surprising to see the Vikings finished 13^th with 344.1 yards per game in 2013. Of course, they were just 22^nd with successful plays 44.2% of the time, but they were 10^th at 5.4 yards per play. They went three-and-out 23.6% of the time (20^th), were 23^rd in ball control drives, and ended up 30^th in time of possession. We’d say those numbers are a pretty good representation of the general opinion of an offense that went through a few QBs last season.

Minnesota actually finished 14^th with 363 points and 13^th in TD efficiency (21%). However, they struggled to get in the red zone and didn’t do much when they got inside the 20. They were 22^nd with 48 RZ drives and were 28^th in successful RZ plays and 19^th in RZ TD efficiency. Those struggles are usually too tough to overcome, but they did get some help from their scoring outside the red zone, which ranked 4^th in the league.

Between having Peterson in the backfield and splitting the season between QBs Christian Ponder and Cassel, it’s not surprising to see the team throw 56% of the time (18^th) and rank 20^th with 546 passing attempts. They were 23^rd in passing yards (3427) and net passing yards per game (214.2). Despite neither Ponder nor Cassel having a big arm, Minnesota was 9^th with 54 completions of 20+ yards. They allowed 44 sacks, which was a bit below average (20^th).

Obviously, it’s no shock the Vikings had one of the best rushing attacks in the league, although we can only hope Peterson keeps that up with injuries starting to pile up in the last few years. Turner could look to get another back involved, especially with Gerhart gone, but there have also been hints of using Peterson more in the passing game. The passing game has some intriguing weapons like WRs Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Jennings, and Rudolph, but the QB position is still the big question mark. Turner somehow had the Browns as the 11^th-best passing offense last season, despite using three different QBs. Can he have similar success in Minnesota? There’s certainly enough talent to have optimism.

The Vikings are going through quite the change in OTAs, adjusting from West Coast systems (with routes identified by name) under Bill Musgrave and Darrell Bevell to Norv’s vertical passing attack (with routes identified by number) that he learned under Don Coryell. In some good news for Rudolph, Turner used 2-TE sets (12 personnel) on almost 37% of the Browns’ plays last season, which was the second-most, according to theMinneapolis Star-Tribune. That should allow Rudolph to excel as a receiver while others handle the in-line spot as blockers.

Supporting Cast: The Vikings will likely head into the season with Cassel under center, which is probably good news for Rudolph, as he should be good enough to bridge the gap to Teddy Bridgewater, who we’ll likely see at some point in 2014. Peterson has carried this offense for years and while we expect him to remain the cornerstone in 2014, he was slowed by injury last season and the Vikings do have a pretty nice group of receivers, which takes some of the attention away from Rudolph. Jennings was a bit disappointing in his first year with the team, but had a better connection with Cassel, which we hope carries into 2014. The Vikings should be excited for Patterson, a versatile option, who excelled as a returner for all of last season and became a dangerous part of the offense in a variety of ways in the second half.

Minnesota added a couple of linemen in the draft and there is a chance that David Yankey can win a starting guard job, but this is basically the same unit that struggled far too often in 2014. Unless the Vikings can back people off with their passing game, the offensive line is going to be outnumbered in most of their encounters and the talent up front is just average.

Job Security: Rudolph isn’t going anywhere, and he doesn’t have any competition of note behind him, so he’s about as secure as it gets.

Strength of Schedule: The Viking schedule looks middle-of-the-road against the pass, so it could be relatively meaningless in terms of their offensive production. They do get at least four favorable matchups (Atl, Det, Was, and Det) and only one that looks tough (NO). Overall, the schedule does not look particularly prohibitive on paper for their passing game. For Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen, they’ll go up against Car, NYJ, Det, and Mia.

Fantasy Bottom Line: Rudolph’s hype train left the station two years ago, and it’s since come back for serious repairs. But Rudolph himself has just been a passenger on that train, and the guy driving it (mostly Christian Ponder) was the one who derailed it. We’ve now got a new conductor in town, with Turner bringing his TE-friendly scheme to Minneapolis, with either Cassel or Bridgewater throwing the passes. Rudolph may not move as well as Turner’s 2013 project Cameron, but he has elite size and can move better than some think. His foot injury that sidelined him in 2013 is past him, and he’ll get every opportunity to shine as a red-zone threat and chain-mover in Turner’s offense. Apparently, fantasy players are buying in, as his current 98 ADP has him at the round eight/nine cusp. But we like it A LOT – it’s an upside-oriented pick that isn’t too expensive, and he can be paired with a safer option (like Martellus Bennett or Heath Miller) a little later for bet-hedgers, or another upside guy (like Zach Ertz or Tyler Eifert) for serious gamblers. We’re expecting his route tree and game to expand with improved QB play and Turner pulling the right strings, and he’s our top break-out TE this year.

To unsubscribe, click here

Saturday, June 28, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: 2014 Player Profiles Posted/Content Update (6/28/14)

2014 Player Profile Samples

No comments:

Post a Comment