Monday, May 6, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #9 (Post-Draft Rookie Report)


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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #9
Published, May 6, 2013
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2013 Post-Draft Rookie Report

Originally Published, 5/4/13 

Things worked out relatively well for this year’s draft class in terms of their landing spots, but since this year’s class is limited in terms of elite prospects, the overriding theme for this year’s rookie group is “wait-and-see.”
 
The QB class wasn’t very good, and while 2-4 guys could see the field this year, it’s hard to get excited about their 2013 prospects. RB was a lot better at the top, but the truly intriguing prospects dry up quickly after you get past 4-5 players. At WR, the great depth at the position should mean there are numerous players to keep an eye on, but there are fewer than five players who should have a legitimate chance to offer meaningful contributions unless the landscape changes quickly due to injuries, suspensions, etc. The TE class was a very good one, but things didn’t work out very well in terms of the many capable players landing on teams that have a pressing need for their services this year.
 
Last year’s rookie class included at least 15 players whose fantasy impacts were felt, but this year’s class will be hard-pressed to produce as many viable fantasy options. So the analysis for this year’s first-year players is more about the long-term, and it’s more about becoming familiar with all the prospects who could actually do something if the planets align, and there are many of those.
 
Quarterbacks
 
1. Geno Smith, NYJ
School: West Virginia | Ht: 6-2.5 | Wt: 218 | 40: 4.58 | Year: 4Sr
 
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors since his sophomore season. Passing totals last year included 71.2%/4205 yards/42 TDs/6 interceptions. Junior totals included 65.8%/4385/31/7.
 
Scouting Report: With solid size at 6’ 2” 218 pounds, an “NFL arm,” and mobility, Smith has the tools to be very good. He’s shown in college that he can make good decisions with a quick delivery and accuracy, which led to a 71.2% completion percentage and a 42/6 TD-to-INT ratio in 2012. He’s not afraid to throw into tight windows and lead his receivers into open spots on the field, and Smith is usually good with short-to-intermediate throws. Perhaps most important for fantasy, Smith has plenty of speed (a QB-best 4.59-second 40-time at the Combine) to move the chains and break off big runs with his feet. But while he’s shown plenty of the positive attributes listed above, he’s also shown some negatives that are particularly concerning as he transitions to a much higher level of competition. He did play under center in high school and about 25% of the time in college, so he does have a little bit of experience, but he mostly put up huge numbers in the West Virginia offense from the shotgun, and there are real concerns about his footwork under center. Smith has also shown to be inconsistent with his mechanics, bouncing too much with his drops and backing away from pressure and throwing off his back foot at times, which was compounded by his struggles to notice blitzers. While he completed a high number of his passes, he can actually be erratic and late with his throws, which leads to him leaving some easy throws on the field. Also keep in mind about a third of his completions were behind the line of scrimmage, which skews the stats (remember that he had the Percy Harvin-like Tavon Austin at his disposal). He’s also shown average touch and accuracy throwing downfield.
 
Fantasy Analysis: For now, veteran Mark Sanchez needs to be covered here because he’s still a threat to Smith’s playing time. Sanchez is expected to remain with the team into the preseason as part of the competition, and he was to get the first snaps when off-season work continues. Of course, given the erosion of Sanchez’ career, even if he’s on the opening-day roster, you have to believe that it’s only a matter of time until the 2nd-round pick plays. The Jets have been pretty generic in terms of discussing Smith in their offense, but there have to be concerns with his accuracy issues in what is expected to be a West Coast-based scheme. Then again, new OC Marty Mornhinweg successfully ran offenses in Philly with Donovan McNabb, whose accuracy was poor. Smith did have autonomy at line of scrimmage at WVU, which Mornhinweg calls a “big positive,” stating “we do that in many instances with our structure here as well.” The main thing that has come out of New York the week after the draft is that they would like to see Smith take better advantage of his good speed and run more. Smith is worthy of this top ranking because of the obvious opportunity, but like E.J. Manuel, he really is more of a developmental prospect than a Week One starter. Like Manuel, many NFL scouts feel he should sit for a season before he plays, but we know that’s rare these days. His situation is odd because he’s likely playing for a lame-duck coach in Rex Ryan, so there may not be much reason for Ryan to play him if Sanchez is there and is serviceable. But ultimately, Smith should see the field in 2013. When he does, he’ll have an OL that at least was surprisingly solid in 2012, and he should have a viable group of RBs to lean on, led by former Saint Chris Ivory but also contributions from the speedy and versatile Mike Goodson. But the positives end there, since the Jet receiving corps is one of the worst in the league right now. They don’t have a viable starter at TE, and their WR corps, as a whole, is poor. We’ll have to keep a close eye on Smith’s running in the preseason and early in the season because, from a fantasy perspective, rushing production seems to be his best chance to actually be a viable fantasy option this year. Unfortunately, while he’s fast, running isn’t his game and he wasn’t a runner in college. Long-term, at this early stage, we see Smith – who has a little prima donna and diva in him – as barely a top-30 option. We know he can throw it, and his speed is intriguing, but there are several red flags.
 
2. E.J. Manuel, Buf
School: Florida State | Ht: 6-4.5 | Wt: 236 | 40: 4.59 | Year: 5Sr
 
Bio: Full-time starter the past two seasons and awarded all-Conference honors as a senior. Passing totals last season included 68%/3392 yards/23 TDs/10 Interceptions. Junior totals included 65.3%/2666/18/8.
 
Scouting Report: Manuel passes every key eyeball test, with very good arm strength, height (6’5”), frame (237 pounds), and speed (4.65-second 40-time). Although he’s not a completely-natural thrower, he has an easy delivery and has routinely displayed more than enough arm strength throughout his career, and he has shown he can throw with timing, anticipation, and accuracy at times. His quick feet and athleticism makes him dangerous because he can avoid a pass rush and break off long runs, and Manuel isn’t afraid to use his athleticism to his advantage. That’s a key with him because of all of this year’s QBs he’s probably the best candidate to run the read-option in the NFL. Manuel started his last two seasons at Florida State, but he saw extended time in all four of his non-redshirt seasons with the Seminoles. Physically, Manuel looks and sounds like he should be the first pick of the draft – of course he did actually go 16th overall – but similar to Jake Locker, he’s far from perfect. He’s been plagued by poor decision-making, and he also struggles to see the whole field when looking deep. He routinely held onto the ball too long at times and can be consumed by pressure, which is a big concern that he can’t process defenses quick enough and will be over-reactive to pressure in the NFL. His accuracy isn’t as poor as Locker’s, but it can leave him on some passes, and he’s shown a propensity to fall away from some throws. During his college career, Manuel started seven games against top-25 opponents, and the results weren’t very good: 6 TDs, 9 INTs, and a 3-4 record. Manuel needs to prove that he has the mental capacity to succeed in the NFL, and it’s very clear that he will need some time to develop, at least one full season. It’s also abundantly clear that he needs to be coached up very well in the NFL. He’s not a lock because he’s never totally put it together in college, but he has the size, arm, and athleticism to surprise and go down as the jewel of this year’s QB class. There are also zero questions about his character and work ethic, so if he doesn’t pan out in the NFL it will have nothing to do with his effort.   
 
Fantasy Analysis: Five to 7 years ago, it would have been safe to say Manuel would be asked to sit and learn for at least a season, but that’s usually not how it works in today’s NFL. If you’re drafted in the 1st round, 95% of the time you’re not only the future at the position for your team, but you’re also the present. Manuel certainly won’t be handed the starting job, but given Kevin Kolb’s track record and inability to perform consistently at an acceptable level, Manuel has to be expected to get on the field eventually for the Bills. They do also have veteran Tarvaris Jackson, but Manuel is expected to compete primarily with Kolb. Obviously, since he was the 16th pick of the draft, the Bills liked what they saw in Manuel. New HC Doug Marrone believes Manuel fits their system – a progressive, quick-paced offense – perfectly. Marrone also said that Manuel was further along than most in terms of his knowledge of the game, which makes sense because the young QB is very intelligent and hard working. After meeting Manuel and doing all their homework, Buffalo was convinced Manuel was the best fit for them. Marrone was an offensive coordinator in New Orleans and worked with Drew Brees, so he should know what an NFL quarterback looks like. On the field, his great size, big hands, and big arm should come in handy in poor weather conditions in western New York, and Marrone is a fan of his ability to make downfield throws and create opportunities with his legs. If Manuel gets on the field, he will have a lot of talent around him – but most of it is very inexperienced, so we’re not expecting much this year unless, again, he’s able to produce as a runner. The OL did lose its best player in G Andy Levitre, but the good news is that the line held up pretty well in pass protection last year. No matter who’s at QB, the Bills will likely utilize the dynamic C.J. Spiller as much as possible, and they still do have the rock-solid Fred Jackson. But other than WR Steve Johnson, this receiving corps is very, very young. You like to see the need for speed addressed with the addition of WR Marquise Goodwin, and 2nd-round pick Robert Woods is a very good prospect, but they’re both rookies. 2012 draft pick T.J. Graham can also fly, but he did very little as a rookie, despite seeing a lot of snaps, so he’s still unproven. At TE, the Bills will be relying on veteran Scott Chandler, who is recovering from ACL surgery. It’s almost impossible to handicap Manuel until we at least see an exhibition game or two and have some training camp under our belts, but it’s fair to keep expectations minimal. Long-term, if you need a developmental QB, it’s very fair to say Manuel could be great for fantasy, and while he’s not exactly polished, he probably has more upside than even your average #1 pick at the position, thanks to his running ability and potential. If things go extremely well overall, Manuel could certainly be considered a top-12 fantasy QB in 2-3 years in what should be a fantasy-friendly offense.
 
3. Tyler Wilson, Oak
School: Arkansas | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 215 | 40: 4.96 | Year: 4Sr
 
Bio: Two-year starter who finished with 62.1%/3387 yards/21 TDs/13 Interceptions as a senior. Wilson was an All-Conference selection as a junior after passing for 3638 yards and 24 touchdowns.
 
Scouting Report: Wilson has earned a reputation as one of the toughest, most competitive QBs in the 2013 draft. He has average size (6’2” 215 pounds), but he’ll hang tough in the pocket to throw the ball, even if he’s going to take a big hit, which will endear him to his teammates. Wilson doesn’t have the biggest arm in the draft, but he has shown the ability to make any throw. He has shown good accuracy and a willingness to go through a progression before checking down to his secondary passing options, which shows some football intelligence. Wilson didn’t play a ton under center at Arkansas, but he didn’t have any problems dropping back at the Senior Bowl. The biggest knock against Wilson is his elongated throwing motion that got progressively worse in college and can get him into trouble throwing against an alert secondary. He’s also quite confident in his abilities, so he’ll make questionable decisions when he tries to fit balls into tight spots. As a result, Wilson’s interceptions rose from 6 in 2011 to 13 in 2012, despite playing two more games in 2011. The Razorbacks really struggled in 2012, and his OL did him no favors, but Wilson gained a reputation for trying to do too much to compensate. Wilson isn’t very athletic, and he’s shown little ability to get outside the pocket and run the ball. He also holds the ball low in the pocket, so he’s vulnerable to fumbles. Wilson was also knocked out of two games over the last two seasons because of head injuries, so there are some durability concerns here as well as some mechanical issues he needs to clear up.
 
Fantasy Analysis: For Wilson, the biggest positive on the Raiders is opportunity. While Oakland has two QBs under 30 in Matt Flynn (28) and Terrelle Pryor (24), those two have a combined three career starts, and with Flynn just joining the team and with a new offense being installed, it’s as if all three QBs are starting out on equal footing (obviously, Flynn gets the edge based on NFL experience). Although Wilson isn’t particularly athletic, the Raiders liked his movement in the pocket, but most of all his toughness to hang in the pocket. That could come in handy because the Raider OL is seemingly starting from scratch again, as they shift back to a power-running scheme. There’s a big hole at RT, but at least Jared Veldheer is an emerging player at LT. But overall, the line is a big question in Oakland, as usual. Assuming Wilson plays this year, there are also questions about his supporting cast. They currently don’t have a TE who can be counted on, and their WR corps has to be considered one of the worst in the league. Wilson is probably a better prospect than Pryor, but the safe money should be on Flynn not only winning the starting job this summer, but also keeping it most of the season. That means Wilson should have zero value for 2013. Long-term, as is the case with most of this year’s QBs, there isn’t a big investment for Wilson. As only a 4th-round pick, the Raiders could easily draft a QB in the 1st round next year, so Wilson is merely a #3 QB for those in dynasty leagues.

Check out writeups for QBs ranked 4-10 and keeper rankings and comments online here. 

Running Backs
 
1. Le'Veon Bell, Pit
School: Michigan State | Ht: 6-1.5 | Wt: 230 | 40: 4.56 | Year: 3Jr
 
Bio: Full-time starter the past two seasons. Awarded all-America and all-Conference honors since his junior campaign and named Doak Walker Award winner in 2012. Senior rushing totals included 356 carries/1830 yards/22 TDs after 307/1923/33 the prior year. Career best pass catching numbers came in 2011 when he posted 24 receptions for 306 yards and 6 TDs (59/598/6 for his career). Ball carried the rock 924 times in college.
 
Scouting Report: Bell was one of the bigger backs (6’ 1”, 230 pounds) available in this year’s draft, but he’s proportionally built with quicker, lighter feet than one would expect. With that said, he still makes the most of his yardage by running through defenders and pushing piles downhill with his powerful running style. Bell is a tall back who runs too tall at times, but he does often play low to the ground, which makes him tough to bring down. He also shows surprising athleticism by hurdling defenders who go low on him instead of hitting him in the numbers. Bell is surprisingly effective in 3rd-down situations, with 67 catches the last two seasons, but he isn’t dynamic as a receiver and has some improving to do when it comes to pass protection (although his pass pro is considered pretty good).  While Bell uses his big frame to his advantage to run over defenders, he’s also vulnerable to taking some big hits because he’s such a big target. Despite his size, Bell is not overwhelmingly powerful, and he’s not going to run away from too many defenders nor is he particularly shifty. Although he’s lost 20-25 pounds this off-season working out with former Oiler Lorenzo White and he ran a solid 4.60 40-yard dash at the Combine, he’ll likely have trouble getting to the outside in the NFL, so he will have to make his living as strictly a north-south runner. Bell also lacks great vision, so he misses some open holes. He got contained by some of his better opponents, and he showed a tendency to run out of gas late in games if he’s handling a lot of work, so he could need to improve his conditioning.
 
Fantasy Analysis: We wrote pre-draft that there was some real potential with Bell if he finds himself in a good situation, and he arguably found himself in the best situation on the Steelers, a team that was looking for a new lead back and one that wants to run the ball quite a bit behind a revamped OL that is younger and more talented than it’s been a in a while. The Steeler backfield could feature a new look with two new players, as the team added changeup LaRod Stephens-Howling. OC Todd Haley has talked about how he loves having two different backs in Bell and Stephens-Howling. As for Jonathan Dwyer, he’s reportedly been put on the trading block. We saw last year the Steelers go through several RBs and how they were trying to find one they could rely on, and they never really did. In Bell they have a back who had 749 career touches at Michigan State, yet he’s still only 21 years old (22 in August). That’s a heavy workload, but when you’re good, teams generally like to get you the ball. Bell’s high ranking has a lot to do with opportunity, but he has enough talent to where there’s genuine reason for optimism, and the Steelers targeted and grabbed him in the 2nd round. There will certainly be some competition, but the early indications are that they are essentially handing him the starting job. He projects right now as their 1st and 2nd back, but he can certainly help them in the passing game, and that could be a huge key as the Steelers do want to throw the ball to their backs. It will be interesting to see if he can get on the field in passing situations over Isaac Redman and Stephens-Howling, but he should add to his value as a receiver regardless.  
 
2. Montee Ball, Den
School: Wisconsin | Ht: 5-10.5 | Wt: 214 | 40: 4.59 | Year: 4Sr
 
Scouting Report: Ball is one of the NCAA’s most prolific RBs, so he did some things right during his college career – and he stayed in school all four years. Ball tied Barry Sanders’ NCAA record for TDs in a season with 39 (33 rushing and 6 receiving) in 2011, and Ball set the record for career TDs with 83 (77 rushing and 6 receiving). Ball clearly has a great nose for the endzone, which is helped by the way he attacks the line of scrimmage and his willingness to get through tight spots. He’s shown patience to allow his holes develop, but Ball also runs with plenty of purpose. Although he doesn’t have breakaway speed, he was quick enough in college to get the corner or get extra yardage if he’s given space. Ball is very reliable and doesn’t leave the field because he’s an excellent pass-protector and pass-catcher. Ball shocked some by coming back for a senior season at Wisconsin last year, and he now has plenty of wear and tear before he even takes a snap in the NFL. He went down as one of college football’s best runners of all-time, but he ran the ball 924 times in four years, including 356 carries in 2012 and 663 carries the last two years. He also has average size (5’10”, 214 pounds) and average speed, without another gear to run away from defenders. Ball has some fluidity to him, and he’s a gliding runner, but he’s best categorized as a volume runner with a lack of burst out of cuts, and he isn’t terribly powerful, failing to move many piles or break tackles. He doesn’t really have the size you look for in a back with his skill set, and he routinely got to run behind one of college football’s best offensive lines at Wisconsin. He was unimpressive at the Combine, but he did have a much better showing after that at his pro day, where he surprisingly ran a 4.46 40.
 
Fantasy Analysis: Ball was incredibly productive in college, but since he doesn’t have any truly special traits, he needed to land in the right situation to have legit fantasy value this year and beyond – and he absolutely did. The Broncos seriously considered the more-talented Eddie Lacy with their 2nd-round pick, but they chose Ball mainly because of his durability and Lacy’s injury concerns. Time will tell if that was a wise move, but it was huge for Ball’s fantasy prospects in 2013 and beyond. In Denver, Ball will run behind one of the better OLs in the league, although that line was clearly better for the pass than the run in 2012, and Peyton Manning can make a line look better than it is. Playing with Manning is usually ideal for a back, since Manning can manipulate a defense as well as anyone and set his backs up for success. The addition of Wes Welker inside should also significantly help the Denver running game, since he is a major matchup problem for any defense. Although Ball wasn’t particularly productive as a receiver in college, he showed exceptional pass protection at Wisconsin, which was one of the main reasons they drafted him. That’s important because he’ll need to earn Peyton’s trust. Historically, John Fox-coached teams like to utilize a dual backfield with two backs sharing the workload, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the statuses of Willis McGahee (likely cut) and Knowshon Moreno (solid last year, but they don’t like him much). It makes sense for them to utilize second-year man Ronnie Hillman as an active change-of-pace guy, which wouldn’t be terrible news for Ball. Ball isn’t a “wow” player, but neither is Moreno, who was a top-10 RB the final six games of the season when he was the featured guy. This is a system that can make stars out of merely above-average players, so the incredibly durable Ball should be an appealing option in 2013 as a third RB.
 
3. Eddie Lacy, GB
School: Alabama | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 231 | 40: 4.65 | Year: 4Jr
 
Bio: Moved into the starting lineup as a junior last season, finishing the year with ground totals of 204 carries/1322 yards/17 TDs and adding pass-catching numbers of 22 receptions/189 yards/2 TDs. Sophomore totals included 674 yards rushing when he came off the bench to relieve Trent Richardson.
 
Scouting Report: Lacy is ideally built (5’11”, 231 pounds) to become a workhorse back in the NFL for years to come, and he might be the only true “foundation” back in this draft class. He runs like workhorse back, with a strong lower body to powerfully run through tacklers and push the pile for additional yardage, and he runs with an attitude. He also proved to be a patient runner at Alabama, allowing his holes to develop, and he runs downhill decisively. Lacy is a big guy, but he’s shown sufficient lateral agility to make defenders miss and enough burst to accelerate through holes and plow by defenders. He also showed good balance with his use of spin moves. Lacy has displayed good hands and potential catching passes out of the backfield and put up 22/189/2 last year in the passing game (he also caught a nice 11-yard TD pass in the National Championship Game that showcased his receiving potential). Lacy is a darn good back, but there are some concerns with him. He had a fumbling problem early in his career at Alabama, but he worked hard to improve his ball security issues, and it showed later in his college career. Much like former teammate Trent Richardson, his physical running style has led to some injuries, as foot issues hampered him at times, with ankle and turf toe injuries also slowing him down. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Lacy wasn’t even on the Steelers’ draft board because of health concerns, and he reportedly has a big toe that has been fused. Lacy also played behind the best offensive line in college football while at Alabama, so he always had plenty of running room and didn’t face a lot of adversity. He didn’t always make the best decisions with his cuts, and Lacy missed some openings in college and left some yards on the field. He is an interior back all the way, so he’s not going to do much on the perimeter, and he’s not going to wow you with too many eye-popping runs. He also needs to improve as a blocker by attacking defenders instead of waiting for them, so he can become a three-down back in the NFL. Finally, he started only one year at Alabama, playing behind Richardson and Mark Ingram, but he did see plenty of time as a backup before 2012.
 
Fantasy Analysis: What’s difficult when evaluating Lacy in Green Bay is we’re not sure if the Packers loved him or if he was simply too good of a value to pass up. After all, they did also take our #2 RB heading into the draft in Jonathan Franklin, who was also a tremendous value (125th overall). One thing we do know is that Green Bay will likely continue to emphasize the run more than we’re used to – as they did with Cedric Benson last year – to protect their QB behind a shaky OL. They also want to challenge and take advantage of defenses that are more concerned with stopping the pass and force a safety into the box. That’s potentially very good news for Lacy. The Packers view Lacy as an every-down back, and they felt really good about taking him (granted, he slipped to the 61st pick overall). But the selection of Franklin is a concern for Lacy. For one, it’s protection in case Lacy continues to have injury issues, and there are some slight concerns about his attitude and work ethic (he wasn’t in the best shape for his pro day, for example). But if the Packers are truly looking for a foundation back to be a move-the-chains sustainer, Lacy could absolutely be that, and for what it’s worth, Lacy at the Combine said he’d love to play for the Packers. This backfield isn’t exactly settled, but Lacy should be given the first crack at the lead role, and he should be their short-yardage guy no matter what. The wild cards are Franklin and the intriguing DuJuan Harris, who the team does like a lot. With incumbents Alex Green and James Starks on incredibly shaky ground after these two picks of Lacy and Franklin, one could speculate that Lacy is the starter, Harris the scat-back changeup, and Franklin the backup and insurance policy. If that’s the case, and we’ll know much more about this backfield in August, drafting Franklin as a handcuff to Lacy might not be a bad idea for most. As for Lacy himself, fantasy owners should definitely consider him. It might be best to take the same road the Packers did by waiting until he’s a value. But aggressive fantasy players should realize that Lacy’s talent and pedigree could net him large returns in a great offense that will consistently move the ball. It really wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he rushed for 1200+ yards and scored 10 TDs, since he’s very talented and since Green Bay definitely wants to run the ball.   

19 more RBs written up online with keeper rankings and comments here

Wide Receivers

 
1. Tavon Austin, Stl
School: West Virginia | Ht: 5-8.5 | Wt: 174 | 40: 4.28 | Year: 4Sr
 
Bio: Three-year starter named to numerous all-America teams since his junior campaign and awarded all-Conference honors since his sophomore season. Receiving totals last year included 114 receptions/1289 yards/12 TDs. Averaged 25.4 yards on 32 kick returns with one score and 11 yards on 15 punt returns with another touchdown as a senior. Austin also posted 623 yards and 3 TDs running reverses. Junior receiving totals included 101/1186/8.
 
Scouting Report: Austin may be the most explosive and dynamic player in the draft, so he gets our vote as the top wideout prospect both pre and post-draft. Although he can be lined up anywhere and can be more than a slot receiver – he’ll also take some handoffs out of the backfield – it’s fair to say Austin’s primary role will be in the slot. He’s a matchup nightmare wherever he lines up, due to his excellent speed/burst and elusiveness in the open field, and he has great vision in all facets of the game (receiver, runner, and returner). His hands aren’t exceptional and are rather small, but they are considered good. He lacks ideal size and strength, and that is a concern because there are questions about how large a role he can handle in the pros. But while he is a smaller receiver, he’s not a frail receiver and he has some upper body bulk and strength, and he impressed at the bench press at the Combine. He caught a whopping 215 passes the last two years and his numbers in 2012, such as his yards from scrimmage (1932), receiving (112/1289/12), and rushing (72/643/3) clearly shows that he’s capable of handling the ball a ton. He didn’t miss a single game in four years at West Virginia, so he’s been very durable. Although he ran a simple route tree in college, he seemingly has no downside as a player who will get the ball near the line of scrimmage, and if he can handle a lot of action, his upside is through the roof.
 
Fantasy Analysis: As we’ve written several times, we don’t have a ton of confidence in OC Brian Schottenheimer, but we do like QB Sam Bradford a lot. Bradford is a very accurate passer, and behind a solid OL, he should have no problem getting Austin the ball. Austin will focus on playing in the slot, and there is a glaring hole there with Danny Amendola gone. Amendola caught 15 balls in a single game in 2012, so there’s obviously production to be had here. He’ll also be used vertically, line up at RB, return kicks, and anything they can come up with to get him the ball because he a threat to take any touch to house, and in college he made explosive plays week after week. He’s still a bit of a wild card, especially playing for coaches who aren’t exactly known for their ingenuity, but they’ll obviously do everything that can to maximize his unique talents. So while it’s dangerous to assume greatness in his first season, there’s still room for a lot of optimism. There are a ton of wideouts in this draft class who could get the ball; but we know Austin will.
 
2. DeAndre Hopkins, Hou
School: Clemson | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 214 | 40: 4.51 | Year: 3Jr
 
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-America and all-Conference honors as a junior in 2012. Receiving totals last year included career numbers of 82 receptions/1405 yards/18 TDs after 72/978/5 as a sophomore. Experienced punt and kick returner.
 
Scouting Report: Hopkins is hardly flashy and is more of a possession receiver than speedy vertical threat, but he did time very well at his pro day in March, logging a 40-yard dash at an impressive 4.41. That’s nice, and what’s even better is that he’s very competitive and in college showed an ability to take games over with a ton of catches. Hopkins put up 82/1405/18 in 2012, so he’s very productive. His 18 TDs this past season set a new ACC mark. He’s not particularly athletic or fast, but his hands are excellent and he does a good job catching the ball away from his body. He has decent size at 6’0” 200 pounds and some lower body strength and good body control. His route running is considered good, especially in the short-to-intermediate area. Even though he doesn’t move extremely well, he can create separation by fooling DBs with head fakes and overall savvy, and he’s not afraid of contact or catching the ball in traffic. He runs hard after the catch and is tough to bring down because he doesn’t go down without a fight.
 
Fantasy Analysis: You worry a little about a guy void of elite qualities as he moves to the next level, but Hopkins looks like a very QB-friendly #2 possession WR at the next level – and he landed in a very good spot. Viewed as the most “pro-ready” WR in draft and being compared a lot recently to Roddy White, Hopkins is considered the first legitimate #2 WR to play with Andre Johnson, and that’s even before he’s taken a snap. The Texans are a run-first team, but they do still have a viable QB in Matt Schaub, and the Texans lost 75 receptions this off-season with low-end guys Kevin Walter and James Casey leaving town, so there is production to be had here, for sure. Given the attention Johnson and the running game gets, Hopkins should seriously challenge for a top-40 finish in PPR leagues. There’s not a lot of juicy upside here most likely in year one, but Hopkins is a plug-and-play guy for the Texans, and he should be very handy for fantasy owners in 2013. 
 
3. Aaron Dobson, NE
School: Marshall | Ht: 6-2.5 | Wt: 210 | 40: 4.44 | Year: 4Sr
 
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors as a senior. Senior totals included 57 receptions/679 yards/3 TDs in 10 games. He led Marshall in receptions the prior two seasons posting 49/668/12 as a junior and 44/689/5 as a sophomore.
 
Scouting Report: Dobson is a dependable wideout with decent size/speed numbers for the next level. He gets off the line quickly and does a good job selling his routes, and he shows sharpness into breaks. His best attribute is probably his hands, as he displays both focus and concentration with the ability to make difficult catches in a crowd. He also didn’t drop a single pass last season on 92 targets. With good size, he uses his frame to shield away defenders and wins out on most jump balls, looks the pass into his hands, and snatches the ball from the air. He’s smooth, but he’s not really a great vertical threat, since he lacks a second gear to run away from defenders.
 
Fantasy Analysis: You can mark this ranking down in pencil – not pen – because many projected Dobson as bit of a project, and we know how poorly the Pats have done when it comes to developing young receivers. There are questions about his ability to quickly pick up the NFL game, but HC Bill Belichick said he put him through game film studies and chalk talk, so they have confidence in him. The best thing about him – other than the fact that Tom Brady will be his QB – is his great opportunity to collect significant playing time. In fact, he should get a chance to play immediately as their X receiver (Brandon Lloyd’s old spot) because his only competition right now includes former Bill Donald Jones, fellow rookie Josh Boyce, and pedestrian veteran Michael Jenkins. This will be a position battle to follow because Jones or even Boyce could emerge as a better option. For now, we’ll go with notion that, as a #2 pick with the size they are looking for in their revamped secondary, Dobson has a good chance to start.
 
4. Robert Woods, Buf
School: USC | Ht: 6-0.5 | Wt: 201 | 40: 4.43 | Year: 3Jr
 
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors the past two seasons after being named to several all-America teams as a sophomore. Junior totals last season included 76 receptions/846 yards/11 TDs. Posted career-best numbers of 111/1292/15 as a sophomore when he also averaged 23.1 yards on 17 kick returns and 9.1 yards on 13 returns. Freshman receiving totals included 65/792/6.
 
Scouting Report: Woods is a versatile player who can help a team in a number of ways. Although he was overshadowed at times by a talented sophomore this past year at USC, it’s hard to argue against Woods’ big numbers in 2011. He put up huge numbers that year (111/1292/15), and while he fell off to 74/849 in 2012, he did still score 11 TDs, so Woods was extremely productive. Woods has pretty good size at 6’0” 190 pounds, but he’s not exactly physical. However, he can play in the slot, and he’s very dangerous with the ball in his hands and can rack up big yardage after the catch. He’s quick and fluid and he can run a variety of routes, so again, his versatility should help him in the NFL. Although he had some concentration drops in college, he has soft hands, and he can catch passes away from his frame with his hands and make catches in traffic, and he’s willing to go over the middle. He’s also very adept at giving his QB a target when a play breaks down, and his blocking is considered solid. There could be some durability issues in the pros, since he has a slight frame and did have an ankle problem in 2012. There could also be a maturity issue here, although it’s not like that’s a major red flag.
 
Fantasy Analysis: Upon being drafted in the 2nd round, Woods was immediately projected as the starting “Z” receiver, as veteran Stevie Johnson moves to the slot in Buffalo’s spread offense. The expectation is that T.J. Graham, Marcus Easley, Marquise Goodwin, and Da’Rick Rogers will compete to be the X receiver (split end, on the left side). That job should go to Graham, who has great speed and a year’s experience in the league. Woods isn’t a stud, but he’s a very good player who should be ranked fairly high this year in terms of rookie WRs, but expectations should be somewhat limited, since the Bills aren’t exactly set at QB. They at least have depth, but it’s highly questionable that they have quality. And if they’re inclined to play rookie E.J. Manuel early, Woods’ production could suffer. It’s hard to make a strong case against him, since he should have a large role from day one, but we suspect there will be 2-3 other wideouts who emerge this summer as better 2013 prospects, simply because they’re likely to get superior QB play. This should eventually be a fantasy-friendly offense, so if Manuel progresses well, Woods should be a solid PPR option for the long-term.
 
5. Cordarrelle Patterson, Min
School: Tennessee | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 216 | 40: 4.34 | Year: 3Jr
 
Bio: Junior-college transfer awarded all-Conference honors last season, the only year he played at Tennessee. He finished with totals of 46/778/5 while also averaging 25.3 yards on 4 punt returns with another score. Patterson also averaged 28 yards on 24 kick returns with 1 touchdown.
 
Scouting Report: A terrific athlete and a top-10 talent in the draft at any position, Patterson emerged as one of the most exciting receivers in the country in 2012, and his combination of great size, outstanding speed, and overall playmaking potential is mighty appealing. Patterson is very smooth and fluid, and he projects as a complete receiver who can get vertical but is also very good on shorter passes and slants. He’s very good at making contested catches due in large part to his size and leaping ability, and he has good hands and is a natural catcher, but he does catch the ball with his body too often and he does tend to drop some catchable balls. He’s also someone who tries to do too much with the ball in his hands at times. He’s a willing blocker, and he has the size for it. With good coaching at the next level, he could develop into a dominant receiver, but he’s certainly not NFL-ready right now, so he will need some time and there is a speck of downside. For one, he played only one season at Tennessee after transferring from a Junior College, so he’s still raw. He was rarely challenged at the line of scrimmage in college, so he needs to prove he can handle press coverage and larger NFL DBs being physical with him. Most important, he’s far from a refined route-runner, and he’s a lot more explosive with the ball in his hands than he is while running routes, so he needs work in that key area. Patterson set an SEC single-season record with a combined kickoff/punt return average of 27.6 yards and a school record of 1,858 all-purpose yards, and he might be more valuable as a return man his rookie season than as a receiver.
 
Fantasy Analysis: While Patterson is still raw and has some downside for the long-term, the Vikings could not pass up a young, sizable, and extremely talented potential #1 WR for the next five to seven years at least. The Vikings actually had him ranked side-by-side with Tavon Austin. He’s a #1 pick, so he will get on the field right away, but the only role we can truly count on for him is the kick returner role. But it’s also fair to say the Vikings will look to him to replace some of Percy Harvin’s production as a deep threat and a receiver near the line of scrimmage, and even as a runner. Although he may actually start immediately ahead of Jerome Simpson, the fact that he needs time to mature as a route-runner makes him a shaky pick this year. And he won’t exactly be working with an elite QB in Christian Ponder. He will be working with veteran wideout Greg Jennings, though, and that is an excellent influence. Those who draft him in a keeper or dynasty league will have to be patient, since he could need a couple years to develop, and we’ve been told that he’s not exactly a Rhodes Scholar, if you catch our drift. But other than Austin, he’s the only elite talent at receiver in this draft, and he could be special if all goes well in 1-2 years.

25 more WRs written up with keeper league rankings and comments online here 

Tight Ends

1. Tyler Eifert, Cin
School: Notre Dame | Ht: 6-5.5 | Wt: 250 | 40: 4.65 | Year: 4Jr
 
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-America honors and named Mackey Award winner in 2012, (given to the nation’s best tight end) after posting 44 receptions/624 yards/4 TDs. Career-best totals of 67/803/5 came as a junior.
 
Scouting Report: Eifert killed it at the Combine in Indianapolis, doing well in every area, but his 4.68 40-time was particularly impressive. While Eifert’s production actually went down in 2012, he was doubled-teamed a ton, so he commanded a lot of attention. Eifert plays a lot like a wideout, which says a lot about his athleticism and movement. In fact, he played out wide quite a bit in college and even ran vertical routes while split out wide. He’s an exceptional receiver with good hands and hand/eye coordination, and he’s a great athlete, but he’s also tough and makes contested catches. He should be able to line up in a number of places in the pros, and while his blocking improved late in his college career, he’s a receiving TE all the way. He elevates well and catches a lot of passes while in the air. Eifert is a little thin and could stand to fill out his frame a bit. While he’s very athletic, he doesn’t exactly have top-end speed and explosiveness, but he’s a bigger offensive threat than the man he replaced at Notre Dame, Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph, who’s had a nice career thus far.  Eifert is much more versatile than Rudolph, given his ability to line up on the outside.
 
Fantasy Analysis: Eifert wasn’t drafted into the best situation, since he’ll ultimately have to share looks with another TE in Jermaine Gresham, and it’s not like there’s a ton of production to go around here with Andy Dalton being merely solid. But it’s clear the Bengals felt the need to surround Dalton with another elite receiver, since he’s not a QB who particularly makes his receivers better, so Eifert will be a big factor. He’s expected to be used as complement to Gresham initially in 2-TE sets, but he has the ability to line up at every receiver spot, and even in the backfield, so his versatility will help him. Based on talent, Eifert should immediately rank as a top-12 TE this year, but that’s not realistic, so he’s merely a backup and possibly a weaker one, since it remains to be seen if OC Jay Gruden can take full advantage of his unique skill set. But for keeper and dynasty leagues, since the position is currently a little thin for fantasy purposes, he’s definitely a top-12 guy and the top rookie from this year’s class. Eventually, he’ll produce like he’s capable of.
 
2. Zach Ertz, Phi
School: Stanford | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 249 | 40: 4.65 | Year: 4Jr
 
Bio: Awarded All-America and all-Conference honors last season after moving into the starting lineup on a full-time basis and totaling 66 receptions/837 yards/6 TDs. Sophomore totals of 2011 included 27/346/4 when he started three games.
 
Scouting Report: Compared by many to Dallas’ Jason Witten, Ertz may not be truly explosive, but he’s a smooth athlete with sneaky speed who is quick in his routes and gains separation. Like Eifert, he has very good size, but he’s not exactly a player who has ideal bulk, so he has average physicality as a blocker. Ertz gives good effort as a blocker, but many view him as nothing more than a receiver. He’s not quite the athlete Eifert is, but Ertz has very good hands, and he does a good job selling his routes and finding soft spots in coverage. Ertz was the go-to guy at Stanford for only one season in 2012, as he played second-fiddle Coby Fleener in 2011. Still, Ertz gained valuable experience in a pro-style offense, and like Fleener he lined up all over the formation, particularly in the slot. In fact, while Ertz could be a little more consistent, he might end up being a better NFL player than Fleener, who had a disappointing rookie season. Ertz did miss three games in ’11 due to a knee injury, but his durability isn’t considered to be a huge concern.
 
Fantasy Analysis: Ertz didn’t exactly go to a team with a clear need for a #1 TE, but it’s worth noting that the drafting of Ertz could mean the end of the Brent Celek era in Philly. In fact, if Ertz is picking things up well in training camp, it’s not unrealistic to wonder if Celek will be cut. That’s a big story to follow this summer for Ertz. We know HC Chip Kelly – who is familiar with him from Pac-12, and who recruited him – called him a mismatch nightmare. He’s too athletic for LBs to cover, and DBs struggle with him because of his size. The Eagles will be using a ton of 2-TE sets, and even 3-TE sets, so Ertz should get on the field. He’s more athletic than Celek, so it’s fair to speculate that he could have more value this year. Long-term, we view him as a #2 TE for the next 2-3 years plus, and he has the upside to be a top-12 guy in 1-2 years. It’s just difficult to pinpoint his fantasy ceiling because no one truly knows what Kelly’s offense will look like.
 
3. Travis Kelce, KC
School: Cincinnati | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 255 | 40: 4.65 | Year: 5Sr
 
Bio: Two-year starter who saw action at quarterback as a freshman. He was an all-Conference selection last season after career numbers of 45 receptions/722 yards/8 TDs and 13/250/2 the prior year.
 
Scouting Report: This year’s draft class was littered with athletic “move” TEs who aren’t exactly adept at blocking, but that’s how Kelce stands out in a deep TE group. He’s a nasty and very physical blocker who can get the job done in-line, which is a distinction he has over most of this year’s prospects at the TE position. He has a good frame to be a complete TE, and he has an NFL pedigree, as his brother Jason is an offensive lineman for the Eagles. Kelce isn’t a tremendous athlete, but he is athletic (he even did some Wildcat in college and was a former QB) with good feet, and he runs pretty well. His hands are considered solid, and he has a wide-catching radius and can make difficult catches. Since he’s so strong, Kelce can be tough to bring down once he gets going. Kelce had some maturity and character issues when he was a sophomore and was suspended for an entire season, but he definitely seems to have turned the page and put his previous transgressions behind him. While he doesn’t really stack up with the top prospects in this draft class in terms of quickness, explosiveness, and flexibility, Kelce could be drafted as high as the 2nd round by a team that is looking for more of a complete TE, so he’s someone to watch. He didn't work out at the combine or participate in the Senior Bowl with an abdomen issue (seems like a sports hernia), but he will have a personal workout on April 4th.
 
Fantasy Analysis: Things didn’t work out wonderfully well for this year’s rookie TEs in terms of their landing spots, so Kelce at this early stage, gets the nod with a high ranking based on his ability, but to be honest, his opportunity stands out above the rest. Head coach Andy Reid has said that he will compete for the starting job, and that’s key because incumbent Tony Moeaki’s knee is still giving him some trouble, and he needed a procedure done to it this spring. The team does have Anthony Fasano, who is a good blocker, so he could technically start. But Kelce has superior athletic ability, so defenses will have to respect that, which should get him on the field. He can also offer versatility, since he can be moved out to WR. We’re actually not expecting much from him, but until we see another option or two who will clearly have an expansive role, Kelce deserves this relatively high ranking. He’s certainly viable long-term, but he’s probably no better than a #3 TE for keeper and dynasty leagues.

13 more TEs written up with keeper rankings and comments online here

FantasyGuru.com’s John Hansen, Joe Dolan, Matt Camp, and Tom Brolley contributed to this report

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