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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #10
Published, May 15, 2013
Copyright © 1995-2013
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #10: 2013 SOS Analysis - 5/15

ALSO ONLINE:

UP NEXT:

2013 Projections: We'll be rolling those out this Friday

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2013 SOS Analysis

by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 5/15/13

We’ve written a few times the last 1-2 years that there have been fewer brutally-bad and fewer shutdown defenses in the league, and that fact probably made our 2012 SOS analysis a little less effective than it’s been in year’s past.

Although we obviously won’t truly know until the regular season starts, we do see a relatively high number of defenses that look suspect against the run and the pass this year. So if nothing else, we do think this year’s SOS analysis will be useful in terms of finding players with good schedules. It’s a little tougher to find teams that clearly have a rough schedule simply because there are fewer dominant defenses, so you won’t see as much negative schedule thoughts this year as in year’s past.

As usual, SOS is only one factor to consider, and it’s a good tie-breaker if you’re torn between two or more comparable players. A favorable schedule can also help a less-established offense move the ball more consistently, and you’ll find several examples below. You’ll also find plenty of analysis for the whole season, the first and second halves of the season, the fantasy playoff weeks, and team overviews for all 32 clubs in what is our most extensive and detail-oriented SOS article to date.

2013 Projected Grades vs. Run & Pass

Here’s a look at the current grades we have given each defense against the run and pass as of May 2013. We compare each team’s schedule, using these grades to determine SOS.

Here’s how the grades are given out

Yellow – Below average/poor

Orange – Average/slightly above average

Red – Well above average/excellent

Team	RG	Team	PG
Ari	87	Ari	85
Atl	85	Atl	84
Bal	90	Bal	87
Buf	84	Buf	82
Car	85	Car	83
Chi	87	Chi	86
Cin	87	Cin	87
Cle	85	Cle	84
Dal	87	Dal	85
Den	87	Den	85
Det	86	Det	84
GB	86	GB	85
Hou	89	Hou	85
Ind	83	Ind	84
Jac	83	Jac	82
KC	86	KC	87
Mia	88	Mia	82
Min	86	Min	85
NE	89	NE	82
NO	83	NO	81
NYG	85	NYG	84
NYJ	86	NYJ	89
Oak	81	Oak	80
Phi	86	Phi	82
Pit	88	Pit	85
SD	86	SD	83
Sea	89	Sea	91
SF	89	SF	86
Stl	86	Stl	87
TB	91	TB	88
Ten	84	Ten	81
Was	86	Was	83

2013 SOS Chart

Before we get into the analysis, let’s take a look at how all 32 teams stack up in terms of SOS for the run and the pass for 2012, as of 5/15/13. The higher the ranking and lower the average grade against the run or pass, the better the schedule.

Rank	Team	Avg. Grade vs. Run	Rank	Team	Avg. Grade vs. Pass
1	Kansas City	85.00	1	Kansas City	83.00
2	Denver	85.38	2	NY Jets	83.25
3	San Diego	85.38	3	Denver	83.31
4	Dallas	85.50	4	San Diego	83.69
5	Houston	85.63	5	Dallas	83.81
6	Jacksonville	85.75	6	Tampa Bay	84.13
7	Oakland	85.94	7	Houston	84.19
8	Tennessee	85.94	8	Washington	84.19
9	Washington	85.94	9	Indianapolis	84.31
10	Tampa Bay	86.00	10	NY Giants	84.31
11	NY Giants	86.06	11	Jacksonville	84.38
12	Indianapolis	86.13	12	Oakland	84.38
13	Seattle	86.13	13	Miami	84.50
14	Chicago	86.19	14	Philadelphia	84.50
15	Philadelphia	86.19	15	Pittsburgh	84.50
16	San Fran	86.19	16	Chicago	84.56
17	Miami	86.31	17	Buffalo	84.63
18	NY Jets	86.31	18	Cincinnati	84.63
19	Pittsburgh	86.31	19	New England	84.69
20	Arizona	86.44	20	Atlanta	84.75
21	Green Bay	86.63	21	Baltimore	84.81
22	Minnesota	86.63	22	Green Bay	84.81
23	New England	86.63	23	Carolina	84.94
24	Carolina	86.69	24	Tennessee	85.00
25	Cincinnati	86.69	25	Minnesota	85.06
26	St. Louis	86.69	26	Arizona	85.13
27	Atlanta	86.75	27	Cleveland	85.13
28	Baltimore	86.75	28	Detroit	85.13
29	Buffalo	86.81	29	San Fran	85.13
30	Detroit	86.88	30	St. Louis	85.19
31	Cleveland	86.94	31	Seattle	85.24
32	New Orleans	87.13	32	New Orleans	85.31

2013 Rushing SOS Analysis

Looking Good:

There are many reasons to get behind KC’s Jamaal Charles as a #1 pick this year, and his easy schedule is definitely one of them. I see only one tougher matchup, and it might not be that brutal (Hou). Otherwise, there are seven favorable ones, so Charles is looking really good this year playing for a coach who actually has a clue about offense.
The Broncos do have a few tougher matchups, but they also have six favorable ones and a slew of beatable ones, so if rookie RB Montee Ball can take control of the lead role, he should be in good shape. The Bronco schedule is easy against the run and the pass.
He had a good schedule last year, but San Diego’s Ryan Mathews did nothing to take advantage of it. But with no real competition added for the feature role this off-season it’s worth noting that his schedule does look good again. Four of his first seven opponents can be considered weak against the run.
The Cowboys have only two matchups that we consider favorable, but they have zero games against a top run defense, so the schedule is still a plus for RB DeMarco Murray, and maybe even rookie Joseph Randle if Murray misses time yet again this coming season.
Houston’s Arian Foster does have some tough matchups early in the season, but in the second half of the year he’ll be facing a cake schedule. I consider six of his final nine opponents as being weak against the run, so if healthy Foster should do extremely well in November and December.
The Jags do have Sea, SF, and also Hou twice, so it’s not all good for RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Yet, they do have a solid number of matchups that look good on paper, namely the Titans and Colts twice each.
Other than a Week 15 game against the 49ers, there’s nothing scary at all about the Giant schedule, which is potentially good news for RB David Wilson. It certainly could also be good news for Andre Brown.
Overall, the schedules for Oakland, Tennessee, Washington, and Tampa Bay look more favorable than they do difficult, so RBs Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Alfred Morris, and Doug Martin have no major schedule concerns, although Johnson’s Titans do have four tough matchups their first seven games.

Looking Not-So-Good:

Playing the Bucs and their scheme, which shut running games down last year, doesn’t help RB Mark Ingram and the Saint running game. They also have games against Mia, SF, Sea, and NE. They do play Tampa Bay in Week 17, which might help if your league is finished by then, but their schedule isn’t exactly encouraging for Ingram, whose career has been very underwhelming thus far. At least for him Chris Ivory is gone, and the Saints are expected to commit a little more to Ingram this year.
We show the Browns with six tough matchups and only two favorable ones, which is a slight concern for RB Trent Richardson. But as we saw last year he’s special and versatile, so durability is really the main concern for him.
The Lion schedule doesn’t look particularly brutal, but Detroit lands near the bottom of the list in terms of schedule ease because there isn’t a single matchup that looks easy right now. It’s probably negligible for RB Reggie Bush, but something to consider for Mikel Leshoure.
The Bills manage to face off against 4 or 5 of the best 7 to 8 run defenses in 2013, so that’s not great news for RB C.J. Spiller. However, unlike a typical volume back, Spiller can produce against just about any defense, so other than maybe taking a guy like Jamaal Charles over Spiller, we wouldn’t be overly concerned about Spiller’s schedule. It is worth noting for Fred Jackson, however, since Jackson’s margin for error is much smaller these days.
Baltimore’s Ray Rice has a schedule that looks fairly tough, but again he’s not someone you should be scared away from because of a tougher schedule. His versatility and proven track record are still huge positives.
I do like RB Steven Jackson this year, and he’s used to facing off against tough defenses, but if you’re on the fence with him and are considering a comparable option, it is worth pointing out that his schedule definitely has some rough spots. In total, he faces off against six run defenses that we consider to be high-end right now.
The Panthers have a new offensive coordinator in Mike Shula, but it’s still unclear if they will actually run the ball more this year. We would imagine so, but it’s still going to be a backfield committee, and RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams won’t be helped by what looks like a tougher schedule. They have six tough matchups in their first twelve games.
The Patriot’s schedule also looks fairly tough, so RB Stevan Ridley won’t get a lot of help in terms of their opponents. That’s hardly a deal-breaker for him, but it’s worth pointing out. It’s particularly tough after Week Eight, and one of their few soft matchups against the Bills comes in Week 17, which could be meaningless for you.
The matchups for the Bengals don’t look particularly great, which is usually the case playing in the AFC North. But at least the Steeler and Raven defenses are hardly dominant these days.

2013 Passing SOS Analysis

Note: It’s more difficult to project SOS against the pass, since there are more factors to consider on both sides of the ball when it comes to passing, but it’s still worth investigating.

Looking Good:

The Chiefs have a very good schedule against the run, but they have what looks like a great schedule against the pass. In addition to not having a single matchup that we view as tough, they have a whopping 12 games against pass defenses that we believe will be weak. This soft schedule could certainly help QB Alex Smith, and it is great news for wideout Dwayne Bowe. New HC Andy Reid is definitely a guy who can break down and capitalize a beatable pass defense.
The Jets have very little going for them on offense, but they do have a solid OL and what looks like a dream schedule against the pass. They open the season against Tampa Bay and their old stud Darrell Revis (if he’s healthy), and then it’s all downhill from there. They have 12 favorable matchups in their next 15 games. You’re probably not going to do much with this information, but this does make WRs Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley a little more viable late in drafts this year.
Denver’s Peyton Manning and the Broncos don’t have a single matchup this year that we view as tough – and they have 11 that we view as favorable. That’s just not fair. For example, we’re giving Manning 8 TDs alone against the Raiders for this year (we’re kind of kidding, but not totally kidding).
I see zero matchups for the Cowboys that I can consider to be tough, and I see 10 games against defenses that I see as being below-average against the pass, so the schedule definitely looks very good for QB Tony Romo this year. That also helps all of their receivers, of course.
Charger QB Philip Rivers definitely needs some help at this point, and while he won’t likely get a lot of support from his OL, the team does have an interesting group of receivers bolstered by the return of Vincent Brown and the selection of Keenan Allen. They also have what looks like a nice schedule, one that includes eight games against weaker opponents and zero matchups against teams that should be very good against the pass.
For what it’s worth the Texan schedule against the pass looks very good. If QB Matt Schaub can stay in one piece for the stretch run, he’ll surely have a chance to do something positive, since they have six favorable matchups from Week Eleven on. That’s also good news for WR Andre Johnson and could give rookie DeAndre Hopkins a boost.
The Redskins probably have to shift to a more conventional offense to keep QB Robert Griffin III in the pocket looking to throw the ball more this year, and the schedule does offer some potential relief if they make that transition. In addition to not seeing any teams that we view as being high-end against the pass, they have eight matchups against inferior pass defenses, thanks in large part to their division (NYG and Phi were brutal last year and don’t look much better this year). This is also good news for WR Pierre Garcon, who might need a little boost from the schedule because he still might not be 100% all season.
We are feeling really good about Indy’s Andrew Luck as a value pick this year, and his schedule doesn’t hurt his chances. He has only one tough matchup that we can see seven favorable ones.
Other than Seattle in Week Fifteen, the Giants’ schedule does look pretty good, with eight favorable matchups. Playing in the NFC East is a big key, since all the secondaries in that division are beatable, if not vulnerable. That’s worth noting for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks.
The Bears don’t have a single matchup that we view as being tough, which is solid news for QB Jay Cutler and their new passing game.
The Packers don’t have a single tough matchup on the schedule this year, and QB Aaron Rodgers and friends have seven games against defenses that we view as being weak against the pass.
The Raider passing game needs all the help it can get, and the schedule does offer some relief. We see only one tough matchup (NY Jets in Week Fourteen) and eight matchups that we view as being favorable, which helps QB Matt Flynn and whomever is starting for them (rookie Tyler Wilson?).
The Viking schedules doesn’t rank high against the pass, but there are numerous favorable matchups and only one tough one (Sea). Otherwise, QB Christian Ponder gets Det, Cle, Car, NYG, Was, Phi, and Det as favorable matchups.
The Eagles are going to run the ball a ton this year, but their schedule against the pass does look pretty good. They have only one matchup that looks tough (TB) and seven matchups that are favorable, plus numerous matchups that are middle-of-the-road at worst. Likely QB starter Michael Vick could have success with Was and NYG on schedule twice along with SD, Oak, and Det.

Looking Not-So-Good:

The Saints’ schedule checks in as the hardest against the pass, but QB Drew Brees still does have seven favorable matchups, and his four tougher ones don’t look that bad.
Seattle is another team that is near the bottom of the SOS rankings, but that is more of a reflection of them not having an easy schedule than it is them having a tough schedule. QB Russell Wilson’s schedule really doesn’t look that bad.
The Ram schedule also checks in near the bottom, but once again the schedule doesn’t look that bad for QB Sam Bradford and their receivers. They do get Tampa Bay in Week Sixteen, which could be a tougher matchup. But they get Seattle once in Week Seventeen, which could be a meaningless week for you.
The 49ers schedule doesn’t stack up as being favorable compared to the rest of the league, but that’s mainly a function of playing Seattle twice. It’s otherwise a decent schedule, so I would not consider SOS to be a negative for QB Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers.

SOS Chart: 1^st half of the season

As of 5/15/13

Rank	Team	Avg. Grade vs. Run	Rank	Team	Avg. Grade vs. Pass
1	San Diego	84.71	1	San Diego	82.71
2	Kansas City	85.00	2	Kansas City	82.88
3	Denver	85.13	3	Denver	83.38
4	Miami	85.57	4	Miami	83.43
5	Oakland	85.57	5	Tampa Bay	83.71
6	Washington	85.71	6	Washington	83.86
7	Seattle	85.75	7	NY Jets	83.88
8	Chicago	85.86	8	Baltimore	84.00
9	Pittsburgh	85.86	9	Chicago	84.14
10	Tampa Bay	85.86	10	Indianapolis	84.14
11	Jacksonville	85.88	11	New Orleans	84.14
12	San Fran	85.88	12	Oakland	84.14
13	Dallas	86.00	13	Buffalo	84.38
14	Minnesota	86.00	14	Dallas	84.38
15	Indianapolis	86.14	15	NY Giants	84.38
16	New England	86.25	16	Minnesota	84.43
17	NY Giants	86.25	17	Cincinnati	84.63
18	Cincinnati	86.38	18	Atlanta	84.86
19	Detroit	86.38	19	Cleveland	84.88
20	Buffalo	86.63	20	Philadelphia	84.88
21	Cleveland	86.63	21	Detroit	85.00
22	Philadelphia	86.63	22	Pittsburgh	85.00
23	Baltimore	86.71	23	San Fran	85.00
24	Arizona	86.75	24	St. Louis	85.13
25	St. Louis	86.75	25	Green Bay	85.14
26	Carolina	86.86	26	New England	85.25
27	Green Bay	87.00	27	Jacksonville	85.38
28	NY Jets	87.13	28	Arizona	85.50
29	Atlanta	87.14	29	Seattle	85.50
30	Houston	87.14	30	Carolina	86.00
31	New Orleans	87.29	31	Houston	86.00
32	Tennessee	87.57	32	Tennessee	86.57

1^st-Half Nuggets

If he’s actually healthy and getting the ball, RB Ryan Mathews could start off the season well with matchups against Ten, Dal, Oak, Ind, and Jac the first eight weeks of the season.
Other than Houston, the Chiefs don’t have a tough matchup in the first half of the season, so RB Jamaal Charles should be productive right out of the gate.
The Raiders don’t have a tough matchup against the run until Week Eight against Pit. RB Darren McFadden opens the season up with softer games against Ind and Jac and has decent matchups otherwise the first half of the season.
The Cardinal running game was atrocious last year, and while they have upgraded the OL and have added three RBs of note, they could still struggle the first half of the season, thanks in large part to matchups against TB, SF, and Sea.
Atlanta’s Steven Jackson should be fine if he’s healthy, but things will be tough for him early on, with matchups against Mia, NE, and TB earlier in the season.
Houston’s Arian Foster has a pretty nasty 3-game stretch against Bal, Sea, and SF from Weeks 3-5.
He does get Oak to open the season, but things won’t be easy early for Indy’s Vick Ballard, who will face off against Mia, SF, and Sea in his first five games.
There are good matchups Weeks 3-4 against Buf and Ten, but the schedule is tough for the Jets early, with matchups against TB, NE, Pit, and NE their first eight weeks. Not great news for RB Chris Ivory.
Tennessee’s Chris Johnson will be a polarizing pick again this year, but if his early schedule is any indication, Johnson owners may not be thrilled. They start with two tougher matchups against Pit and Hou and also have Sea and SF Weeks 7-8, so that’s four tough matchups in his first seven games.
For what it’s worth, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan should get off to a hot start by opening the season against NO, Stl, Mia, and NE. The Ram secondary is solid, but those other three matchups look great.
The Bills will be working in a new offense with a new staff and a new QB and several new WRs, so they need some help. They do get some early with favorable matchups against NE, Car, Cle, Mia, and NO the first half of the season.
The Bears don’t have a tough matchup against the pass in the first half of the season and have nice matchups against Det, NO, NYG, and Was, so that’s good news for QB Jay Cutler and the receivers.
The Bengals don’t have a tough matchup early in the season, which is good news for QB Andy Dalton and their receivers. They also get Cle, NE, Buf, and Det from Weeks 4-7.
The Cowboy schedule looks really good all year, and it’s particularly favorable in the first half of the season with matchups against NYG, Was, Phi, and Det, so QB Tony Romo should get off to a good start if his receiving corps is intact.
QB Peyton Manning’s schedule in Denver looks ridiculously easy against the pass all year and it’s especially soft early in the season with matchups against NYG, Oak, Phi, Dal, Jac, Ind, and Was. Manning should pick most of these secondaries apart.
Indy’s Andrew Luck should be helped by a favorable schedule all year, and it’s particularly nice early in the season with matchups against Oak, Mia, Jac, and SD.
As mentioned above, the Chief schedule against the pass this year looks great. Early in the season they get Jac, Dal, Phi, NYG, Ten, Oak, and Cle, so QB Alex Smith and WR Dwayne Bowe have a good chance to get rolling early.
Miami’s Ryan Tannehill showcased franchise QB traits as a rookie last year, so he’s an intriguing option as a fantasy backup this year. A soft schedule to open the season could certainly help his cause. He opens the year with matchups against Cle, Ind, Atl, NO, Buf, and NE, with only one tougher matchup against Bal. This nice schedule should help Tannehill transition with his revamped receiving corps.
The Jets get NE, Buf, Ten, Atl, and NE in the first half of the season, so the schedule looks favorable for QB Mark Sanchez, rookie Geno Smith, and maybe even veteran David Garrard (although we doubt that).
The Raider passing game will need all the help it can get this year, and they do have solid matchups early in the season against Ind, Jac, Was, and SD.
The Chargers have serious OL issues and we’ve essentially turned the page on QB Philip Rivers as a solid fantasy option, but they do have some good matchups early in the season against Phi, Ten, Dal, Oak, Ind, and Jac. That is definitely a good schedule.
After Tampa’s Josh Freeman faces off against the Jets Week One, his schedule early in the season gets pretty darn soft, which could help. He gets NO, NE, Phi, Atl, and Car in the first half of the season.

SOS Chart: 2^nd half of the season

As of 5/15/13

Rank	Team	Avg. Grade vs. Run	Rank	Team	Avg. Grade vs. Pass
1	Houston	84.44	1	NY Jets	82.63
2	Tennessee	84.67	2	Houston	82.78
3	Dallas	85.00	3	Kansas City	83.13
4	Kansas City	85.00	4	Dallas	83.25
5	NY Jets	85.50	5	Denver	83.25
6	Denver	85.63	6	Jacksonville	83.38
7	Jacksonville	85.63	7	Tennessee	83.78
8	Philadelphia	85.75	8	Carolina	84.11
9	NY Giants	85.88	9	Pittsburgh	84.11
10	San Diego	85.89	10	New England	84.13
11	Indianapolis	86.11	11	Philadelphia	84.13
12	Tampa Bay	86.11	12	NY Giants	84.25
13	Washington	86.11	13	Indianapolis	84.44
14	Arizona	86.13	14	San Diego	84.44
15	Oakland	86.22	15	Tampa Bay	84.44
16	Green Bay	86.33	16	Washington	84.44
17	Atlanta	86.44	17	Green Bay	84.56
18	Chicago	86.44	18	Oakland	84.56
19	San Fran	86.50	19	Cincinnati	84.63
20	Seattle	86.50	20	Atlanta	84.67
21	Carolina	86.56	21	Arizona	84.75
22	St. Louis	86.63	22	Buffalo	84.88
23	Pittsburgh	86.67	23	Chicago	84.89
24	Baltimore	86.78	24	Seattle	85.00
25	Miami	86.89	25	Detroit	85.25
26	Buffalo	87.00	26	San Fran	85.25
27	Cincinnati	87.00	27	St. Louis	85.25
28	New England	87.00	28	Miami	85.33
29	New Orleans	87.00	29	Cleveland	85.38
30	Minnesota	87.11	30	Baltimore	85.44
31	Cleveland	87.25	31	Minnesota	85.56
32	Detroit	87.38	32	New Orleans	86.22

2^nd-Half Nuggets

Tennessee’s Chris Johnson has a tougher schedule to open the season, but things get a lot easier in the second half of the season against Stl, Jac, Ind, Oak, Ind, Den, Ari, and Jac.
Houston’s Arian Foster has a few tough matchups early, but the schedule gets ridiculously easy in the second half of the season, including matchups against Ind, Oak, Jac, Jac, Ind, and Ten.
Indy’s Vick Ballard has some tougher matchups early, but the schedule gets easier in the second half of the season with matchups against Ten, Ten, and Jac along with Stl, Ari, KC, and Cin, which aren’t brutal matchups.
If Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew is still relevant in December, he should get helped by some favorable matchups out to close the season. He has Buf, Ten, and Ind to end the season.
The Bills and RB C.J. Spiller have three tough matchups to close out the season against TB, Mia, and NE. At least NE is Week Seventeen, and it’s not a brutal matchup. But Mia and TB in the playoff weeks could be fairly problematic. Again, with a special back like Spiller, a couple of tough playoff week matchups is hardly a deal-breaker.
As if there wasn’t enough reason to avoid Panthers RBs, they have a nasty stretch of games toward the end of the season against SF, NE, Mia, and TB. They have some decent matchups for the fantasy playoffs, but you might not make it there if you’re relying on the Panther backs from Weeks 10-13.
The Bengals have four tougher matchups the final eight weeks of the season, which isn’t great news for RBs BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Giovanni Bernard. They get Mia and Bal Weeks 10-11 and then Pit and Bal Weeks 16-17.
The Browns also have some tougher matchups in the second half of the season against Bal, Pit, NE, and Pit Week Seventeen, so we can’t say the schedule is an asset for RB Trent Richardson. That’s probably the best way to put it, since we can’t say the schedule is a huge issue for him.
The Lions have a fairly tough stretch of games in the second half of the season with Pit and TB Weeks 10-11 and Bal Week Fourteen.
The Pats have some tougher matchups against the run in the second half of the season against Pit, Hou, Mia, and Bal. That’s probably not a reason to shy away from RB Stevan Ridley, but it is worth noting.
The Cardinals do have a solid schedule in the second half of the season, which is good news for QB Carson Palmer and wideout Larry Fitzpatrick. They get Jac, Ind, Phi, and Ten. They do, however, get Seattle Week Sixteen, which is a tough matchup.
Atlanta’s Matt Ryan has a nice schedule in the first half of the season, and it’s also pretty good in the second half. Although he gets Sea and TB Weeks 10-11, which are tougher matchups, he has Car, TB, NO, Buf, GB, Was, and Car on the schedule the final two months of the season.
Carolina’s Cam Newton gets SF, TB, and NYJ in the second half, which are tougher matchups. But he also gets Atl, NE, Mia, NO, NO, and Atl, so the schedule overall is solid for Newton.
As we’ve outlined, the Cowboy schedule against the pass is very good all year, and it’s more than fine in the second half of the season with matchups against NO, NYG, Oak, GB, Was, and Phi. If all goes well, QB Tony Romo should be a very good pick this year considering he won’t be very pricey in drafts.
Again, QB Peyton Manning and the Broncos have a great schedule. In the second half, they get SD, NE, Ten, SD, and Oak, which are all good matchups. They also get KC, KC, and Hou, which isn’t scary at all.
Green Bay’s schedule looks particularly favorable in the second half of the season, as they get Phi, NYG, Det, Atl, and Dal along with a few other matchups that don’t seem problematic, so that’s good news for Aaron Rodgers and the receivers.
As mentioned elsewhere in this article, Houston’s Matt Schaub has a cake schedule this year. It’s particularly juicy in the second half with Ind, Oak, Jac, NE, Ind, and Ten on the schedule. This obviously also helps veteran wideout Andre Johnson, and rookie DeAndre Hopkins looks “NFL-ready” and capable of taking advantage right away.
Miami does have some tougher spots (TB Week Ten, NYJ Week Thirteen, and NYJ Week Seventeen) in the second half of the season, but QB Ryan Tannehill also gets SD, Car, NE, and Buf, so he does have some nice matchups.
The Giants’ schedule the second half of the season doesn’t appear to be problematic at all. In fact, other than Sea in Week Fifteen, QB Eli Manning should be helped by some easier matchups like Oak, GB, Dal, Was, SD, Det, and Was.
Again, while it’s hard to believe the Jets can take advantage, but their schedule is very easy all year and particularly soft in the second half of the season, when they face NO, Buf, Mia, Oak, Car, Cle, and Mia. By the final two months of the season, it will likely be rookie Geno Smith under center for these beatable matchups.
We haven’t mentioned the Steeler schedule against the pass much, but it is pretty good in the second half of the season. They have matchups against NE, Buf, Det, Cle, Bal, Mia, Cin, GB, and Cle. Overall, that’s a favorable schedule for QB Ben Roethlisberger and their receivers.
Once again the Chargers have a good schedule this year, and it’s pretty appealing for the pass in the second half of the season with matchups against Was, Mia, NYG, and Oak.
There are some tough matchups Weeks 14-15 against Sea and TB, but the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick also get Car, NO, Was, and Atl in the second half, so the schedule should be helpful for this evolving passing game.
As mentioned above, Tampa’s Josh Freeman has a good schedule in the first half of the season, and it’s also good in the second half of the year. After seeing Sea in Week Nine, he gets Mia, Atl, Det, Car, Buf, SF, Stl, and NO. Other than SF and probably Stl, that’s a very good schedule.
If Tennessee’s Jake Locker is still in one piece and starting for the Titans, he might actually be ready to take advantage of a good schedule in the second half of the season. Notable matchups are Jac, Ind, Oak, Ind, and Jac.
If QB Robert Griffin III is healthy by the second half of the season, he’ll have a favorable schedule waiting for him with matchups against SD, Phi, NYG, Atl, Dal, and NYG.

Team-by-Team Overviews

Arizona – Their SOS will be tougher simply due to their four games against SF/Sea so it won’t rank high, but otherwise there are a number of favorable matchups. The Cardinals have a solid schedule in the second half of the season against the pass, which is good news for QB Carson Palmer and wideout Larry Fitzpatrick. They get Jac, Ind, Phi, and Ten. They do, however, get Seattle Week Sixteen, which is a tough matchup. As for the run, the Cardinal running game was atrocious last year, and while they have upgraded the OL and have added three RBs of note, they could still struggle the first half of the season, thanks in large part to matchups against TB, SF, and Sea. Overall, they rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of ease of schedule against the run and the pass.

Weeks 13-16: A mixed bag against Phi, Stl, Ten, and SF.

Atlanta – The Falcons have had a good schedule the last couple of years, but it will check in as one of the hardest this year because of four tough matchups. The good news is QB Matt Ryan should get off to a hot start by opening the season against NO, Stl, Mia, and NE. The Ram secondary is solid, but those other three matchups look great. Ryan’s schedule is also pretty good in the second half. Although he gets Sea and TB Weeks 10-11, which are tougher matchups, he has Car, TB, NO, Buf, GB, Was, and Car on the schedule the final two months of the season. For the run, veteran Steven Jackson should be fine if he’s healthy, but things will be tough for him early on, with matchups against Mia, NE, and TB earlier in the season. Jackson should be used to facing off against tough defenses, but if you’re on the fence with him and are considering a comparable option, it is worth pointing out that his schedule definitely has rough spots. In total, he faces off against six run defenses that we consider to be high-end right now.

Weeks 13-16: Pretty solid against Buf, GB, Was, and SF

Baltimore – Their schedule won’t rank as being particularly favorable, but it doesn’t look particularly prohibitive and looks more favorable against the pass than not. We see six favorable matchups against the pass versus only one unfavorable matchup for QB Joe Flacco and the receivers. RB Ray Rice has a schedule that looks fairly tough (5^th hardest, according to our projected SOS for 2012), but he’s really not someone you should be scared away from because of a tougher schedule. His versatility and proven track record are still huge positives.

Weeks 13-16: Decent enough against Pit, Min, Det, and NE

Buffalo – The schedule looked tough for the Bills last year, and it looks only slightly better this year. The Bills manage to face off against 4 or 5 of the best 7 to 8 run defenses in 2013, so that’s not great news for C.J. Spiller. However, unlike a typical volume back, Spiller can produce against just about any defense, so other than maybe taking a guy like Jamaal Charles over Spiller, we wouldn’t be overly concerned about Spiller’s schedule. It is worth noting for Fred Jackson, however, since Jackson’s margin for error is much smaller these days. They have three tough matchups to close out the season against TB, Mia, and NE. At least NE is Week Seventeen, and it’s not a brutal matchup. But Mia and TB in the playoff weeks could be fairly problematic. Again, with a special back like Spiller, a couple of tough playoff week matchups are hardly a deal-breaker. For the pass, the Bills will be working in a new offense with a new staff and a new QB and several new WRs, so they need some help. They do get some assistance early with favorable matchups against NE, Car, Cle, Mia, and NO the first half of the season.

Weeks 13-16: Fairly solid overall Atl, TB, Jac, and Mia

Carolina – They have more tough matchups against the run than favorable ones, but it does look better against the pass. QB Cam Newton gets SF, TB, and NYJ in the second half, which are tougher matchups. But he also gets Atl, NE, Mia, NO, NO, and Atl, so the schedule overall is solid for Newton. The Panthers have a new offensive coordinator in Mike Shula, but it’s still unclear if they will actually run the ball more this year. We would imagine so, but it’s still going to be a backfield committee, and Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams won’t be helped by what looks like a tougher schedule. They have six tough matchups in their first twelve games. As if that wasn’t enough reason to avoid Panthers RBs, they have a nasty stretch of games toward the end of the season against SF, NE, Mia, and TB. They have some decent matchups for the fantasy playoffs, but you might not make it there is you’re relying on the Panther backs from Weeks 10-13.

Weeks 13-16: Overall, pretty good against TB, NO, NYJ, and NO

Chicago – The Bear schedule looks favorable overall. They have only two tough matchups against the run (Bal and Pit) and those might not be as tough as they’ve been. They also have what we view as seven favorable matchups against the pass. The Bears also don’t have a single matchup that we view as being tough, which is solid news for QB Jay Cutler and their new passing game.

Weeks 13-16: Nothing scary against Min, Dal, Cle, and Phi

Cincinnati – The matchups for the Bengals don’t look particularly great, which is usually the case playing in the AFC North. But at least the Steeler and Raven defenses aren’t exactly dominant these days. The Bengals have four tougher matchups the final eight weeks of the season, which isn’t great news for BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Giovanni Bernard. They get Mia and Bal Weeks 10-11 and then Pit and Bal Weeks 16-17. The Bengals don’t have a tough matchup against the pass early in the season, which is good news for QB Andy Dalton and their receivers. They also get Cle, NE, Buf, and Det from Weeks 4-7.

Weeks 13-16: It could be good against the pass versus SD, Ind, Pit, and Min

Cleveland – We show the Browns with six tough matchups against the run and only two favorable ones, which is a slight concern for Trent Richardson. The Browns also have some tougher matchups in the second half of the season against Bal, Pit, NE, and Pit Week Seventeen, so we can’t say the schedule is an asset for Richardson. That’s probably the best way to put it, since we can’t say the schedule is a huge issue for him. But as we saw last year he’s special, so durability is really the main concern for him. The Brown schedule against the pass looks a little easier than usual with only one tough matchup against the pass (NYJ Week Sixteen). But that matchup is easier with CB Darrelle Revis no longer a Jet. Overall, their schedule doesn’t stand out as being particularly tough or easy against the pass.

Weeks 13-16: Above-average against Jac, NE, Chi, and NYJ

Dallas – We see zero matchups for the Cowboy passing game that we can consider to be tough, and we see 10 games against defenses that view as being below-average against the pass, so the schedule definitely looks very good for QB Tony Romo this year. That also helps all of their receivers, of course. The Cowboy schedule is particularly favorable in the first half of the season with matchups against NYG, Was, Phi, and Det, and it’s more than fine in the second half of the season with matchups against NO, NYG, Oak, GB, Was, and Phi. If all goes well, Romo should be a very good pick this year considering he won’t be very pricey in drafts. For the run, the Cowboys have only two matchups that we consider favorable, but they have zero games against a top run defense, so the schedule is still a plus for DeMarco Murray, and maybe even rookie Joseph Randle if Murray misses time yet again this coming season.

Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn good against Oak, Chi, GB, and Was

Denver – Thanks to their weaker division and some luck, the Bronco schedule looks fantastic. QB Peyton Manning and the Broncos don’t have a single matchup this year that we view as tough – and they have 11 that we view as favorable. That’s just not fair. Manning’s schedule looks ridiculously easy against the pass all year and it’s especially soft early in the season with matchups against NYG, Oak, Phi, Dal, Jac, Ind, and Was. Manning should pick most of these secondaries apart. In the second half, they get SD, NE, Ten, SD, and Oak, which are all good matchups. They also get KC, KC, and Hou, which isn’t scary at all. For the run, the Broncos do have a few tougher matchups, but they also have six favorable ones and a slew of beatable ones, so if rookie Montee Ball can take control of the lead role, he should be in good shape. Overall, the Bronco schedule is clearly easy against both the run and the pass.

Weeks 13-16: It’s good overall against KC, Ten, SD, and Hou

Detroit – The Lion schedule doesn’t look particularly brutal, but Detroit lands near the bottom of the list in terms of schedule ease against the run because there isn’t a single matchup that looks easy right now. It’s probably negligible for Reggie Bush, but something to consider for Mikel Leshoure. We don’t rank their schedule against the pass high, and in fact they check in pretty low on our ranking list, but we do see only one tough matchup (TB), so the schedule should be either a positive or negligible for QB Mathew Stafford and their receivers.

Weeks 13-16: Average or even slightly above average against GB, Phi, Bal, and NYG

Green Bay – They have a few tough matchups against the run (SF, Bal, and Pit) spread out over the season, but otherwise the schedule looks fine for their running game. Against the pass, the Packers don’t have a single tough matchup on the schedule this year, and Aaron Rodgers and friends have seven games against defenses that we view as being weak against the pass. Green Bay’s schedule looks particularly favorable in the second half of the season, as they get Phi, NYG, Det, Atl, and Dal along with a few other matchups that don’t seem problematic, so that’s good news for their passing game.

Weeks 13-16: Nothing concerning against Det, Atl, Dal, and Pit

Houston – The Texans have had a good schedule in recent years, and 2013 is no exception. It’s particularly favorable against the pass, which will help because they need all the support they can get throwing the ball. If QB Matt Schaub can stay in one piece for the stretch run, he’ll surely have a chance to do something positive, since they have six favorable matchups from Week Eleven on. That juicy second half schedule includes matchups with Ind, Oak, Jac, NE, Ind, and Ten. This obviously also helps veteran Andre Johnson, and rookie DeAndre Hopkins looks “NFL-ready” and capable of taking advantage right away. For the run, Arian Foster has a pretty nasty three-game stretch against Bal, Sea, and SF from Weeks 3-5. But the schedule gets ridiculously easy in the second half of the season, including matchups against Ind, Oak, Jac, Jac, Ind, and Ten. So if healthy Foster should do extremely well in November and December.

Weeks 13-16: Well above average against NE, Jac, Ind, and Den

Indianapolis – The Colts’ schedule is likely skewed a bit due to matchups against SF and Sea, but it actually ranked in the top-12 for the run and the pass in our projected SOS analysis. We are feeling really good about QB Andrew Luck as a value pick this year, and his schedule doesn’t hurt his chances. He has only one tough matchup that we can see and seven favorable ones. Luck should be helped by a favorable schedule all year, and it’s particularly nice early in the season with matchups against Oak, Mia, Jac, and SD. As for the run, he does get Oak to open the season, but things won’t be easy early for RB Vick Ballard, who will face off against Mia, SF, and Sea in his first five games. But the schedule gets easier in the second half of the season with matchups against Ten, Ten, and Jac along with Stl, Ari, KC, and Cin, which aren’t brutal matchups.

Weeks 13-16: About middle-of-the-road against Ten, Cin, Hou, and KC

Jacksonville – Their schedule is probably below-average against the run and the pass, but overall it doesn’t look too bad. The Jags do have Sea, SF, and also Hou twice, so it’s not all good for Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game. But they do have a solid number of matchups that look appealing on paper, namely the Titans and Colts twice each. If MJD is still relevant in December, he should get helped by some favorable matchups out to close the season. He has Buf, Ten, and Ind to end the year. For the pass, the schedule does look good, thanks in large part to their weaker divisional foes. We count only one tough matchup and eight favorable ones. That’s at least worth noting for a very viable guy like WR Cecil Shorts.

Weeks 13-16: Looks pretty good against Cle, Hou, Buf, and Ten

Kansas City – There are many reasons to get behind KC’s Jamaal Charles as a #1 pick this year, and his easy schedule is definitely one of them. I see only one tougher matchup, and it might not be that brutal (Hou). Otherwise, there are seven favorable ones, so Charles is looking really good this year playing for a coach who actually has a clue about offense. Other than Houston, the Chiefs don’t have a tough matchup in the first half of the season, so Charles should be productive right out of the gate. The Chiefs have a good schedule against the run, but they have what looks like a great schedule against the pass. In addition to not having a single matchup that we view as tough, they have a whopping 12 games against pass defenses that we believe will be weak. Early in the season they get Jac, Dal, Phi, NYG, Ten, Oak, and Cle, so Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe have a good chance to get rolling early. This soft schedule could certainly help Smith, and it is great news for Bowe. New HC Andy Reid is definitely a guy who can break down and capitalize a beatable pass defense.

Weeks 13-16: Nothing scary at all overall against Den, Was, Oak, and In

Miami – There are definitely some problem areas, but the schedule looks at worst above average against the run and the pass. It looks particularly favorable against the pass. If he retains the starting job coming out of camp this summer RB Lamar Miller should enjoy some success early in the season with matchups against Cle, Ind, Atl, NO, and Buf in the first half of the season. QB Ryan Tannehill showcased franchise QB traits as a rookie last year, so he’s an intriguing option as a fantasy backup this year. A soft schedule to open the season could certainly help his cause. He opens the year with matchups against Cle, Ind, Atl, NO, Buf, and NE with only one tougher matchup against Bal. Tannehill also gets SD, Car, NE, and Buf in the second half of the season, so this nice schedule should help Tannehill transition with his revamped receiving corps.

Weeks 13-16: Pretty decent against NYJ, Pit, NE, and Buf

Minnesota – Playing against Pit, Bal, and Sea doesn’t help their overall SOS rankings and knocks them down in the bottom half against the run and the pass. We actually don’t see a single “easy” matchup for RB Adrian Peterson, but on the bright side we see only three tough ones (Pit, Bal, and Sea). The Viking schedule doesn’t rank high against the pass, but there are numerous favorable matchups and only one tough one (Sea). Otherwise, Christian Ponder gets Det, Cle, Car, NYG, Was, Phi, and Det as favorable matchups.

Weeks 13-16: Not that great against Chi, Bal, Phi, and Cin

New England – They have had some great schedules in the past, but this year’s looks below average, thanks to several matchups against top-10 NFL defenses. The run schedule looks fairly tough, so Stevan Ridley won’t get a lot of help in terms of their opponents. That’s hardly a deal-breaker for him, but it’s worth pointing out. It’s particularly tough after Week Eight, and one of their few soft matchups against the Bills comes in Week Seventeen, which could be meaningless for you. Otherwise, Ridley gets Pit, Hou, Mia, and Bal in the second half of the season. That’s probably not a reason to shy away from Ridley, who gets more of his value due to his goal line carries, but it is worth noting. The schedule looks a little better for the pass, as Tom Brady and friends get seven favorable matchups against Buf and Mia twice, Atl, NO, and Car.

Weeks 13-16: Looks fine against Hou, Cle, Mia, and Bal

New Orleans – They rank low against the run and the pass due to a certain few matchups, but overall things don’t look overly prohibitive. But playing the Bucs twice and their scheme, which shut running games down last year, doesn’t help Mark Ingram and the Saint running game. They also have games against Mia, SF, Sea, and NE. They do play Tampa Bay in Week Seventeen, which might help if your league is finished by then, but their schedule isn’t exactly encouraging for Ingram, whose career has been very underwhelming thus far. At least for him Chris Ivory is gone. The Saint schedule checks in as the hardest against the pass, but Drew Brees still does have seven favorable matchups and his fiver tougher ones (TB, NYJ, SF, Sea, and TB) don’t look that bad. Brees gets Car and Atl twice, and their secondaries look vulnerable, and he also gets Mia, NE, and Buf, so the schedule is fine for Brees.

Weeks 13-16: About average against Sea, Car, Stl, and Car

NY Giants – Playing the AFC West and in a weaker (for now) NFC East means the Giants land in the top-12 in terms of ease of schedule against the run and the pass. Other than Seattle in Week Fifteen, the Giants’ schedule does look pretty good for the pass, with eight favorable matchups. Playing in the NFC East is a big key, since all the secondaries in that division are beatable, if not vulnerable. The Giants’ schedule the second half of the season doesn’t appear to be problematic at all. In fact, other than Sea in Week Fifteen, QB Eli Manning should be helped by some easier matchups like Oak, GB, Dal, Was, SD, Det, and Was. That’s worth noting for Manning, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks. For the run, other than a Week Fifteen game against the 49ers, there’s nothing scary at all about the Giant schedule, which is potentially good news for RB David Wilson. It certainly could also be good news for Andre Brown.

Weeks 13-16: Not bad at all against Was, SD, Sea, and Det

NY Jets – The Jets have very little going for them on offense, but they do have a solid OL and what looks like a dream schedule against the pass. They open the season against Tampa Bay and their old stud Darrell Revis (if he’s healthy), and then it’s all downhill from there. They have 12 favorable matchups their next 15 games. You’re probably not going to do much with this information, but this does make Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley a little more viable late in drafts this year. The Jets get NE, Buf, Ten, Atl, and NE in the first half of the season, but the schedule is particularly soft in the second half of the season, when they face NO, Buf, Mia, Oak, Car, Cle, and Mia. By the final two months of the season, it will likely be rookie Geno Smith under center for these beatable matchups. For the run, there are good matchups Weeks 3-4 against Buf and Ten, but the schedule is tough for the Jets early, with matchups against TB, NE, Pit, and NE their first eight weeks. In the second half of the season, they get good matchups against NO, Buf, and Oak. But they also get Bal, Mia, and Mia, although that second Dolphin matchup is in Week Seventeen. Overall, the schedule isn’t great for Chris Ivory, but his playoff weeks aren’t bad at all.

Weeks 13-16: Very favorable against Mia, Oak, Car, and Cle

Oakland – The Raiders rank in our top-12 in terms of ease against the run and the pass. Their passing game needs all the help it can get, and the schedule does offer some relief. We see only one tough matchup (NY Jets in Week Fourteen) and eight matchups that we view as being favorable, which helps Matt Flynn and whomever is starting for them (rookie Tyler Wilson?). They have solid matchups early in the season against Ind, Jac, Was, and SD, which should help their inexperienced QB. Against the run, the Raiders don’t have a tough matchup until Week Eight against Pit. Darren McFadden opens the season up with softer games against Ind and Jac and has decent matchups otherwise the first half of the season. The schedule doesn’t look great in the second half, but it’s not bad and there is only one matchup (Hou) that could be problematic against the run.

Weeks 13-16: Nothing scary against Dal, NYJ, KC, and SD

Philadelphia – Playing in a shakier NFC East and against the AFC West helps, and overall the Eagle schedule looks slightly favorable against the run and especially the pass. They have only one matchup against the run that looks great (Oak), but also only one matchup that looks tough (TB), so it’s more of a middling schedule than anything else for RBs LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown, and also Felix Jones, which is worth noting because they are expected to run the ball a ton in 2013. The Eagles will be run-heavy, but their schedule against the pass does look pretty good. They have only one matchup that looks tough (TB) and seven matchups that are favorable, plus numerous matchups that are middle-of-the-road at worst. Likely starter Michael Vick could have success with Was and NYG on schedule twice along with SD, Oak, and Det.

Weeks 13-16: Favorable overall against Ari, Det, Min, and Chi

Pittsburgh – The Steelers usually have a very favorable schedule, but this year it merely looks average and ranks near the middle-of-the-pack against the run and the pass. Against the pass, it’s pretty good in the second half of the season. They have matchups against NE, Buf, Det, Cle, Bal, Mia, Cin, GB, and Cle. Overall, that’s a favorable schedule for QB Ben Roethlisberger and their receivers. Nothing really stands out for their schedule against the run, but they do face more tough matchups (Bal, NE, Bal, Mia) than they do favorable ones (Ten, Oak, Buf), although if we include Cle as favorable then the schedule looks fine for rookie Le’Veon Bell and their RBs.

Weeks 13-16: Not wonderful against Bal, Mia, Cin, and GB but nothing to panic about

San Diego – The Chargers haven’t finished high in the standings for a while, so playing in a weaker division, their schedule has been pretty good the last few years. That is definitely the case this year, and they wind up in our top-5 against the run and the pass this year. He had a good schedule last year, but RB Ryan Mathews did nothing to take advantage of it. But with no real competition for the feature role added this off-season (as of mid-May) it’s worth noting that his schedule does look good again. Four of his first seven opponents can be considered weak against the run, so if he’s healthy and getting the ball, Mathews could start off the season well with matchups against Ten, Dal, Oak, Ind, and Jac the first eight weeks of the season. Against the pass, QB Philip Rivers definitely needs some help at this point, and while he won’t likely get a lot of support from his OL, the team does have an interesting group of receivers bolstered by the return of Vincent Brown and the drafting of Keenan Allen. They also have what looks like a nice schedule, one that includes eight games against weaker opponents and zero matchups against teams that should be very good against the pass. They not only have some good matchups early in the season against Phi, Ten, Dal, Oak, Ind, and Jac, the schedule is also pretty appealing for the pass in the second half of the season with matchups against Was, Mia, NYG, and Oak.

Weeks 13-16: Not great, but not bad either against Cin, NYG, Den, and Oak

San Francisco – It looks like they will be middle-of-the-pack or worse against the run and a little worse than that against the pass. The 49ers schedule doesn’t stack up as being favorable compared to the rest of the league, but that’s mainly a function of playing Seattle twice. It’s otherwise a decent schedule, so I would not consider SOS to be a negative for Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers. There are some tough matchups Weeks 14-15 against Sea and TB, but the 49ers and Kaepernick also get Car, NO, Was, and Atl in the second half, so the schedule should still be fairly helpful for this evolving passing game. Against the run, we see four matchups that look tough (Sea, Sea, Hou, TB) and four that look favorable (Ind, Ten, Jac, NO), so the schedule looks negligible for RB Frank Gore and the other backs.

Weeks 13-16: Not too bad against Stl, Sea, TB, and Atl

Seattle – It looks pretty tough against the run (SF twice doesn’t help) and below average against the pass. For the run, Marshawn Lynch and their backs get four matchups against tougher opponents (SF, SF, Hou, TB) and four favorable ones (Jac, Ind, Ten, NO), so the schedule isn’t a big deal for Lynch. Seattle is another team that is near the bottom of the SOS rankings against the pass, but that is more of a reflection of them not having an easy schedule than it is them having a tough schedule. Russell Wilson’s schedule really doesn’t look that bad and might actually include zero matchups that can be considered severely challenging.

Weeks 13-16: Could be below-average overall against NO, SF, NYG, and Ari

St. Louis – The Rams had a really tough schedule last year, thanks mainly to their division, and they are certainly looking at a tough schedule on paper this year. The Ram schedule checks in near the bottom against the pass, but at least the schedule doesn’t look brutal for QB Sam Bradford and their receivers. They do get Tampa Bay in Week Sixteen, which could be a tougher matchup. But they get Seattle once in Week Seventeen, which could be a meaningless week for you. And Bradford does get softer matchups against Dal, Jac, Car, Ten, Ind, and NO, so again the schedule is hardly terrible. Against the run they do get four favorable matchups (Jac, Ten, Ind, and No) but also five tough ones (SF, SF, Sea, Sea, and TB).

Weeks 13-16:Probably leans to the tougher side against SF, Ari, NO, and TB

Tampa Bay – The Buc schedule is well above-average against the run and looks favorable against the pass. After QB Josh Freeman faces off against the Jets Week One, his schedule early in the season gets pretty darn soft, which is good news for Freeman because it’s a huge contract year for him. He gets NO, NE, Phi, Atl, and Car in the first half of the season. Freeman also has a good schedule in the second half of the year. After seeing Sea in Week Nine, he gets Mia, Atl, Det, Car, Buf, SF, Stl, and NO. Other than SF and probably Stl, that’s a very good schedule. As for their schedule against the run, RB Doug Martin has only three matchups that can be considered soft (NO, NO, and Buf) and he actually has four that can be considered tough (NE, Sea, Mia, and SF) but mainly his schedule medium run defenses on it, so it’s probably negligible for Martin. Unfortunately, he won’t get a chance to face off against the Raiders again for another couple of years.

Weeks 13-16: Probably below-average against Car, Buf, SF, and Stl

Tennessee – Despite playing four games against the Colts and Jags, the Titans had a tougher schedule in 2012, and it looks like they do again. It looks a little tougher against the pass, but it still does include six matchups against weaker defenses. If Locker is still in one piece and starting for the Titans, he might actually be ready to take advantage of a good schedule in the second half of the season. Notable matchups are Jac, Ind, Oak, Ind, and Jac. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson will be a polarizing pick again this year, but if his early schedule is any indication, Johnson owners may not be thrilled. They start with two tougher matchups against Pit and Hou and also have Sea and SF Weeks 7-8, so that’s four tough matchups in his first seven games. Johnson’s schedule does get a lot easier in the second half of the season against Stl, Jac, Ind, Oak, Ind, Den, Ari, and Jac.

Weeks 13-16: Not too bad against Ind, Den, Ari, and Jac

Washington – Overall, the Redskins schedule looks well above average, and it actually ranks in our top-10 against the run and the pass in terms of being favorable. The Redskins probably have to shift to a more conventional offense to keep QB Robert Griffin III in the pocket looking to throw the ball more this year, and the schedule does offer some potential relief if they make that transition. In addition to seeing zero teams that we view as being high-end against the pass, they have eight matchups against inferior pass defenses, thanks in large part to their division (NYG and Phi were brutal last year and don’t look much better this year). Other than Phi and NYG twice, the also get Det, Oak, and SD. This is also good news for Pierre Garcon, who might need a little boost from the schedule because he still might not be 100% all season. We see only one easy matchup on the ground for RB Alfred Morris, but we also don’t see a single tough matchup on the 2013 schedule, so Morris’ opponents really shouldn’t hold him back this year.

Weeks 13-16: Nothing too scary against NYG, KC, Atl, and Dal

SOS Notes Using 2012’s data

If you’re looking for SOS data using 2012’s stats, simply check out our SOS TOOL.

This tool takes last year’s actual numbers and applies them to this year’s schedule. In addition, it’s broken down by position, and if you have entered some custom scoring system, is customized to your scoring system. Finally, you can filter the tool to show only a certain range of weeks, location, etc.

As the 2013 season progresses, this tool is populated with 2013’s data as the games are played.

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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #10 (2013 SOS Analysis)

2013 SOS Analysis

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