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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #11
Published, May 24, 2013
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Off-Season Report #11: 2013 Draft Plan - 5/24

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Off-Season Report #12: 2013 Position Battles (Next week)

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2013 Draft Plan

by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 5/24/13

I wrote many times last year that the 2012 season went down as a relatively smooth one, and by that I meant there were more things than usual that we expected to happen actually happen, so it was more of a straightforward season than we’re used to. Obviously, in our business, there will always be miscalculations, but there were fewer of them a year ago, especially when it came to the top 50-60 players overall.

That was great and all, but the NFL and fantasy tend to be cyclical, so I sense a little more chaos this coming season. A lot of the somewhat unproven players from 2013 are now proven, so they’ll no longer be values. And a lot of the break-out candidates actually broke out. Right now I feel like the league is split up almost evenly between guys who we already know what they are and guys who we have no idea what they are (other than knowing they are injury-prone). That means we may have to think a little differently this year.

An overriding theme of this year’s draft plan will be the great depth at almost all of the skill positions, but by the time everyone’s ready to draft, the odds are strong that particular truth will be evident to everyone. So I think there are two main keys this year to drafting. Having patience is one of them, and the other focuses on reliability and availability – and it usually never hurts to throw in a little flexibility.

In short, this is not a year in which you’ll want to try to be a hero by reaching for players. If a talented RB has missed significant time going back multiple seasons, he’s off the grid very early in the draft. If the body of work is very small, then it’s buyer beware. And if a particular position is particularly loaded, it doesn’t make as much sense to invest heavily in it. I still want to target ascending “Gurrific” players who will likely be drafted much higher in 2014 than they will this year; I’m just going to do it a little more judiciously this summer.

I wish I could do a copy-and-paste job from last year’s article and change the names - it would be so much easier. But this is the NFL we’re talking about, where the off-season and the dramatic changes never end. So we’re pretty much starting from scratch every year when it comes to the draft plan.

Note: Later this summer, I will unleash the full version of this draft plan, and that will go into ridiculous detail, as always.

The Quarterback Plan

As you likely hear 4-5 times a week during the season from various analysts, the NFL is a “QB-driven league,” so you certainly want a good one. The position is so important that, as of two years ago, and even to an extent in 2012, I’d sign off on drafting one with one’s first pick. That’s probably not going to be a wise move this year because, as even casual fantasy observers know, the depth at the position this year is excellent, thanks to several young, emerging, and mobile QBs.

Draft trends can be completely different from one league to another depending on scoring system, draft tendencies, knowledge levels, etc. But generally, it’s safe to say the QBs will be dropping a little in 2013 because of that excellent depth, so owners should attempt to hold off a little on drafting their QB if they weren’t already. But as mentionedabove, this is not a year to overextend oneself by drafting a skill player with issues over a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, who are still money in the bank. The word “patience” is a very key term to me regarding the QBs, but I’m also going to place a lot of weight on “reliability,” so the top QBs are very much in play for me as high as the 2^nd round. In fact, we’ve already seen the QB position take a hit more than three months from Week One with the 49ers losing wideout Michael Crabtree for most of the season (if not all of the season), which is big news for Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick’s body of work is small, and his reliance on Crabtree last year was significant, so the QB’s value takes a hit. The QB depth is good this year because of several young guys like Kaepernick, but Kaepernick didn’t exactly have a huge margin for error, and that took a major hit with Crabtree going down. Meanwhile, comparatively, while Kaepernick’s go-to guy is staring at a six-month recovery, Peyton Manning is throwing to one of the best WR trios we’ve ever seen and remains money in the bank.

Still, you’re ideally holding off at least a little and loading up on as many appealing non-QBs as possible because that is clearly going to give you the best chance to form the best overall team. As I write this initial article in May, the average draft positions were a little inconsistent still, so things should be clearer in a month or two. But the first player who stands out as a value is Cam Newton, who had an early ADP of 46 in the NFFC. Newton was the #4 scorer in both PPG and total points for the 2012 season, and from Week Nine on he was #1, so he can clearly produce. Matt Ryan’s ADP was 51, so he’s not a bad choice and is very reliable. But Russell Wilson (58), Matthew Stafford (61), Andrew Luck (65), and Tony Romo (68) are clearly better values. Those ADPs are actually a little higher than I’ve seen, so they may even go a little later. Of these four, we like Luck the most, but a pretty strong case can be made for all four players for a variety of reasons. If you pass on all the QBs mentioned above, you’re taking on some risk and probably need to invest a higher pick than usual on your backup. But there’s no question that Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III – who continues to be on track for Week One as of late-May – have plenty of upside potential and are worth taking a shot with.

If you’re in a 12-team league, all the starters have been listed, so you’re looking now at your backup. My next two best options, who could be starters in a 14-team league, are Eli Manning and Sam Bradford. The Bradford ranking is fairly bold, though, so he would be a risky starter even in a 14-teamer. But I am a Bradford apologist and things are setting up very well for him this year. Granted, the offense will likely need a year to develop, but Bradford will surprise some people this year. Otherwise, it would be nice to get a backup who has the potential to perform at a starter’s level, and Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, and Josh Freeman come close. Next you’re digging a little deeper, but it’s fair to get behind guys like Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, and Ryan Tannehill. Some backup wild cards this year are Michael Vick, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, and maybe even Christian Ponder and E.J. Manuel, who have some mobility to help their fantasy causes. And you also have steadier backups like Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco. As always, how aggressive you draft your backup depends on the reliability and durability of your starter. If you draft Brees, it’s not as important to make sure you get a Roethlisberger or a Palmer.

Since QB is so important, let’s break this year’s QB group down into some key tiers:

Viable options if you’re stuck very early in drafts and aren’t 100% sold on another position:

Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning

Potential values/strong options 40+ picks into a draft:

Cam Newton
Matt Ryan

Excellent values and ideal options for forming the best possible roster:

Andrew Luck
Tony Romo
Russell Wilson
Matthew Stafford

Viable options if they slip in drafts or simply if you hold off on drafting a QB:

Colin Kaepernick
Robert Griffin III

The Running Back Plan

Since even babies being born this year know that QB and also WR are deep in 2013, you’re better off diving right into the RB mongering with everyone else at the top of your draft rather than trying to buck the strong RB-heavy trend this year. Everyone seems to know this year that it’s all about the RBs early in drafts, so how does one get an advantage? Without having access to the results of the 2013 season, I’d say the best advantage is to be cautious and avoid reaching on a player with issues. While you may miss out on the year Darren McFadden finally stays healthy, or a major breakout from David Wilson, it’s worth noting that RB is also deep this year, which makes investing heavily on a shaky player even riskier. I’m not against McFadden, who is healthy, back in the power running scheme he needs to be in, and in a contract year, and I love Wilson’s potential, but I think prudent long-term investors in 2013 need to have a laissez-faire approach when it comes to downside investments. But at some point, almost anyone can be a value. If someone like Wilson slips a little bit and you’re feeling strong, that’s great; go for the knockout blow. But until I see that he’s gained the trust of the coaches, there’s no way in hell I’m taking Wilson in the 3^rd round.

But back to the RB plan. First and foremost, there’s over a 90% chance that I’m going to use my first selection on a RB, since I think the following are worthy of such a high pick: Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Trent Richardson, Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller, Matt Forte, and Alfred Morris.

There is a chance that I’ll take WR Calvin Johnson in the first round, especially if I feel like I can get one of the 11 players listed above at the top of the second round, which would be a great thing. But most likely, I’m getting that stability at RB. And other than some durability concerns with Trent Richardson, the 11 players above are pretty darn stable.

The tough question is what to do next because the quality at RB does drop off quickly. One of the best options left is New England’s Stevan Ridley, who I think is very safe. And with an ADP of 43 in the NFFC, he looks like a terrific pick in the 3^rd round, after you’ve likely added a stud WR or possibly QB if Brees or (Peyton) Manning make the most sense and are available. I do like Steven Jackson this year, but I’m still not sure if I’d use a #2 pick on him, although I might. I might also use a late 2^nd rounder on Maurice Jones-Drew, assuming we hear good things out of Jacksonville this summer.

The quality does fall off rather quickly at RB after the top-12 or so, but there is at least good depth, so I’m going to try my best to stay patient and let the draft – and hopefully some values – come to me. As I write this in late-May, there are still a lot of situations that have to play out in training camps and the preseason, but there are some intriguing youngsters on the field this year like Le'Veon Bell, Montee Ball, David Wilson, Eddie Lacy, and Lamar Miller. I certainly don’t love any one of them as #2 fantasy backs, but if I’m loaded with a stud back already and a top QB and a couple of high-end WRs, then I might be inclined to give one of these players a shot as my RB2. The ADPs for those young players are all over the map, so we need a little more time to pass to get a true feeling for when they are being drafted, although Wilson seems like a 3^rd-or 4^th-round pick for sure right now, and I find it hard to believe he’ll go much higher (but he could go lower if he has issues this summer). We also have players like Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, and Darren Sproles, who I’m certainly fine with (especially Bush and Sproles in PPR).

What I’m not a big fan of is going into a draft with the plan to load up with like 3 RBs in the first 4-5 rounds. One could be quite formidable taking that approach, yet RBs typically bring more risk than other positions, so one could be quite hosed with it as well. I also believe there’s enough depth this year at RB to make that approach less important. I’m more about spreading the talent around more on my roster. If I’m loading up on anything early in my draft it’s with RBs and WRs.

Ideally, I’m drafting at least two of the backs listed above, and I do feel the need to secure a solid #3 back, which is why I have drafted Vick Ballard several times already this year. He really is the perfect #3 in terms of his affordability and current role as the lead back, and while he’s hardly a stud, I’m sold enough on his ability. But it would be great to be able to get some value and snag one of the rookies like Bell, Ball, and Lacy, or someone like Miller, as my third back. The guy who stands out to me in terms of being very capable of greatly out-producing his draft position is Lacy, so he is someone I’m targeting a lot, since I suspect he’ll come a little cheaper than Bell or Ball, and likely Miller, due to the logjam they have in the Packer backfield. If need be, I’ll hold off a round or two from when I want to get my #3 back and take a shot with someone like Mark Ingram, Rashard Mendenhall, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, or Chris Ivory. I’m skeptical with Ivory, who hasn’t come close to showing he can stay healthy, and that’s with a limited workload. But I do like Ingram as a very sneaky third back/flex starter, especially with Ivory gone. We’ve been fooled with Ingram before (2011), and the backfield is still crowded, but I do get the sense that his arrow is pointed upward.

Next up, you’re looking for some quality depth, and there are a number of routes you can go because there are a higher number of viable options than usual. Again, things will come into much greater focus later in the summer, but you’re always looking for players who have a chance to grab a substantial role, like Daryl Richardson in St. Louis (and, unfortunately, Isaiah Pead and rookie Zac Stacey, which clouds up that situation). Andre Brown, if healthy, will be, at worst, the goal-line back and someone who gets 10 carries a game, so he’s not bad at all. Fred Jackson is just kind of “there” now on draft boards, but his value has plummeted, so he’s not a bad option. I also really like the talented Bryce Brown, since Philly could give him up to 150 carries, and his upside if McCoy is out is massive. You’re otherwise looking at mostly complementary backs. These types rarely seem to come through for fantasy owners, so I’d prefer to get one with at least some tangible upside if the planets align for him and his roles increase for whatever reason. The best options this year are Giovani Bernard, Shane Vereen, and Mikel Leshoure, but there are others a few rounds later like Pierre Thomas, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ronnie Hillman, Danny Woodhead, Michael Bush, and Marcel Reece. There’s also nothing wrong with investing a late pick on a stash-and-hope option or two if you have the roster spot. Guys like Mike Gillislee, Bernard Pierce, Robert Turbin, Ryan Williams, Knowshon Moreno, and Johnathan Franklin could start and there’s an injury, and they’re all pretty talented (other than maybe Moreno, who is nothing special at all).

And to illustrate the unusual depth at RB this year, I could go even 75 deep at the position and I’d still find viable complementary and stash-and-hope guys, so while RB is very important this year, it’s not a position you need to go overboard with. Opportunity is a huge equation for RBs, and if there are injuries, the WW will be very active and it might even be very fruitful at this position in 2013.

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Friday, May 24, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #11 (2013 Draft Plan)

2013 Draft Plan

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