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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #12
Published, May 31, 2013
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #12: 2013 ADP Report - 5/31

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Off-Season Report #13: 2013 Position Battles (Next week)

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2013 ADP Report

by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 5/31/13

We’ve now been tracking and analyzing Average Draft Positions for over a decade. In fact, we were one of the first sites on the planet to track and analyze it in the early 2000s. But in today’s ultra-competitive environment, understanding ADP is more important than ever.

It always takes a few weeks after the NFL draft for us to accumulate enough ADP data that is actually worth using, but it’s time to take a look at the early ADP landscape. Just keep in mind it’s still very early, so this report is merely a primer for what could be an active summer with a lot of ADP movement.

Note: We’re never going to include every single player at each position in this article. We focus on the more intriguing options and those who are tough to get a handle on in terms of when they will be drafted. If you view our ADP chart online or in excel, note the 12-team vs. Last column, which shows a player’s movement since our last update. Players listed in green have moved up (lower ADP) and players in red have moved down (higher ADP). The data in this initial 2013 report show changes from our last report in 2012. Also, note that we are now using PPR as our default setting for this analysis, and the file will show differences in the PPR ADP and non-PPR (green means higher and red means lower). We’ll always reference a player’s ADP in a 12-team league, but on the chart you can see ADP in 8, 10, 12, and 14-team leagues.

To view the current ADP chart, click here.

To download the whole file in Excel, with average Auction $ Values and PPR ADP, click here.

Quarterbacks

It’s no surprise that Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is the first QB off the board, but what is surprising is how far his ADP has slipped from 2012. He’s actually down 23.7 spots from last year. That’s likely due to three things: his “so-so” 2012 season, the depth at QB, and the inclination fantasy players have this year to go RB early. Keep in mind, though, all leagues are different and Rodgers could still go in the 1^st round of your draft. At the very least, his lower ADP and the depth at QB should prompt you to not draft Rodgers in the 1^st round, since he could easily be available to you in the 2^nd round. Also keep in mind the ADP number is for a PPR league. In a non-PPR, Rodgers’ ADP is higher at 19.

New Orleans’ Drew Brees is predictably the next QB off the board with an ADP of 30.9. In a non-PPR, it’s only a few spots higher, so Brees can legitimately be had in the 3^rd round this year (but again, it’s hard to say he will in every league). So if you’re stuck in the 3^rd and you’ve already drafted two studs at RB and WR, there’s nothing wrong with Brees.

Our data shows Denver’s Peyton Manning going next with an ADP of around 42-45 overall. Again, Manning could go in the 2^nd round of your draft, but the depth at QB is likely pushing Manning down a little further than he should go. So in the 4^th round, he’s a great pick. He may not present the value others do at this position, but Manning has a legitimate chance to finish as the #1 QB in fantasy this year, so he’s a great pick in the 4^th if he falls as far as our ADP data suggest he could.

New England’s Tom Brady is next off the board with an ADP of 44-47 (47 in a PPR). That’s understandable, but Brady seems riskier than the top three guys, given the potential issues with his receiving corps. Brady is rarely a bad pick, but he might not be a good pick that high this year because of the great depth at the position and some of those potential pitfalls relating to TE Rob Gronkowski and a receiving corps that, while it could be very good again, could be exposed if WR Danny Amendola misses time because of injury.

Amazingly, Carolina’s Cam Newton has slipped significantly from 2012, despite the fact that he was the #1 fantasy QB from Week Eleven on last year. He’s at 46 in a non-PPR, but in a PPR league he’s down to 58, which is insane value. What we don’t know is how his ADP shifts in leagues that count 6 points for all TDs and that could bump him up a little. But clearly, Newton isn’t getting much love this year and is a great value in the 4^th or 5^th round.

San Fran’s Colin Kaepernick’s ADP was sitting pretty high at 62.9, but that will likely drop once the data reflects the critical loss of WR Michael Crabtree. He’ll likely be out at least until Week 11-12 and could be severely limited all season, if he plays.

Atlanta’s Matt Ryan had a career year in almost every single passing category (YPA, Completion %, yardage, TDs, etc.), but you get the sense that his production isn’t likely to rise much going forward, especially since he doesn’t run much. So with great depth at the position, his ADP is only 62.9. It’s hard to argue with the steady and reliable Ryan late in the 5^th or early in the 6^th round, but there might be better values out there this year.

Anyone who has the gift of sight and watched him play last year knows that Detroit’s Matthew Stafford was “off” in 2012, so it makes sense that his ADP has dropped from 2012. But it’s down over 50 spots, which is a dramatic fall and certainly creates a solid buying opportunity. Although our data has him going slightly higher than Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, we’ve seen Stafford consistently go after those to players (or at least Luck). So clearly, if you’re holding off on drafting your QB, Stafford is someone to target. He likely won’t throw it 720+ times again (that was an NFL record), but his TD total could easily jump 10+ with a little luck (and Calvin not being tackled inside the 5 yard line so often).

Our data shows Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Andrew Luck being drafted 75-85 overall (68-76 overall in non-PPR), but someone like Luck could go 1-2 rounds higher and Griffin III, who still has to prove he’s ready for Week One, could slip 1-2 rounds later (or more). But it’s pretty clear that Wilson and Luck are two of the main players to consider if you hold off on drafting your QB. We like them both, but give the edge to Luck because of his reliability and elite qualities as a passer, plus his ability to augment his fantasy value with his legs. I have no concerns about the offensive shift in Indy this year, since Luck has elite football intelligience, and since it’s the offense he ran in college.

Perhaps the best value on the board at this position, Dallas’ Tony Romo has an ADP of 87 (86 in non-PPR), so he can actually be drafted in the 8^th round. Clearly, the depth at QB hurts his draft stock, but fantasy owners also seem to be enamored with the younger options at the position these days. But in the second half of the season, Romo was second in TD passes with 18 and his numbers (2509 yards passing, 18 TDs, 6 INTs) are almost exactly the same as Tom Brady’s. One could argue that Romo’s supporting cast is better than Brady’s right now, at least at receiver.

When you compare the ADP of New York’s Eli Manning (104) to Romo’s, Romo is by far the better value. Manning could always come up with a 4000-yard, 30 TD season, but that is more of a hopeful projection than a realistic one at this point. That said, Manning is actually a little overvalued. He should fall even further than this ADP suggests he is.

Philly’s Michael Vick has been splitting reps almost down the middle with Nick Foles in their OTAs, and while the assumption is still that Vick will win the job, he might not have a large margin for error if he wins it, so he should not be drafted as high as our data shows (104 overall). Vick is essentially impossible to project until we know more about his role and the offense.

Cincy’s Andy Dalton finished 14^th last year in total points and 12^th in PPG, so some were surprised that he’s “only” 15^th in our rankings. But Dalton fell off in 2012 and threw for 230 yards or more only once in his final eight games (Week Seventeen did see him attempt only 15 passes), and he did inflate his fantasy totals with 4 rushing TDs, which could be a fluke (he had 1 in 2011). So to us, the fact that he’s added a nice TE option in Tyler Eifert and a very good complementary back in Giovanni Bernard is simply reason to maintain his 2012 ranking, not boost him up into the top-12. But he’s a backup with some upside, for sure.

The days of fantasy owners using earlier picks in the middle rounds on guys like Ben Roethlisberger (ADP around 125), Jay Cutler (ADP from 133-145), and Philip Rivers (ADP of 138 to 152 in a non-PPR) appear to be over, and rightfully so. All three are solid backup, though.

Thanks in part to some hard-nosed coach speak by head-man Greg Schiano, some people are concerned with Josh Freeman’s job security, as evidenced by his ADP of 144. We still don’t love him even in the 12^th round, but we think the job security talk is overblown. It’s definitely a big season for Freeman, and if he doesn’t perform to the team’s liking they could let him walk as an UFA in 2014. But unless things get really, really ugly and/or they are out of the playoff race, rookie Mike Glennon is not a threat to Freeman. If Freeman plays well and they are out of the playoff race, Glennon still probably isn’t a threat to Freeman, who the team would likely re-sign in the off-season.

Houston’s Matt Schaub is really “just a guy” these days for fantasy, and his potential is always limited by their inclination to run in the red zone and his mediocre talents. His ADP is 144, and there are a few options we’d prefer over him this year.

Some appealing options very late at the QB position include Sam Bradford (150-158), Carson Palmer (155-173), and Ryan Tannehill (154-156). Unless there’s an injury, all three are good bets to out-produce their draft positions.

If you hold off until the bitter end to draft your backup QB, or if you’re looking for a cheap #2 in a 2-QB league, Kansas City’s Alex Smith is getting almost no love with an ADP of 158 (179 in non-PPR). The Chiefs will certainly throw the ball enough for him to excel, and they are experimenting with “pistol” concepts, which in theory is a good mesh with Smith’s skill set and overall game. The Chiefs have been very pleased with Smith thus far.

Another possible deep sleeper this year is Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden, whose ADP is way low at 189 (208 in non-PPR). Weeden should beat all comers for the starting job, and Norv Turner is an excellent QB coach and offensive mind, so Weeden could surprise. That is, assuming #1 WR Josh Gordon’s previous character issues don’t come to the forefront, and we are still concerned about Gordon’s maturity.

We liked Jake Locker’s upside as a backup in 2012, but his game regressed. While it wasn’t entirely his fault, he did little to help what was an ugly situation. His ADP is paying for that lost 2012 season, since it’s down to 161 (181 in non-PPR). Things should be better around him this year, and if you keep 3 QBs he’s not a bad late, late pick. But he’s still a shaky #2/primary backup who’s hard to count on.

Best QB Values:

Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.

Cam Newton, 58
Andrew Luck, 85
Tony Romo, 87
Russell Wilson, 75
Matthew Stafford, 75

Super Value Alert:

These players aren’t in our top-150, but they have a chance to surprise.

Sam Bradford, 150
Carson Palmer, 156
Ryan Tannehill, 157
Alex Smith, 159
Brandon Weeden, 190

Notable players who don’t have enough data to analyze to arrive at ADP as of late-May: E.J. Manuel, Chad Henne, Geno Smith, Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, Nick Foles, and Mike Glennon.

Running Backs

RB Trend: You’ll likely find that as many as 10 of the first 12 picks this year will be RBs. That’s a pretty far cry from 2011-2012, when the QBs were considered very early picks and there were WRs and TEs going off the board in the top-15. We saw this coming in 2012 and often wrote last summer about RB-RB being a good strategy. But in 2013, we don’t really see a viable alternative, so we’re okay jumping right into the RB fray.

RB Trend: It’s still early and some values will likely emerge from some of the more fluid backfield situations in the league. But as of the final day of May, I really struggled to come up with even five RBs values. Some bigger names have slipped a bit, like DeMarco Murray and Darren McFadden, but they have for a reason (injuries), so I can’t call them “values.”

As fully expected, RBs Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster are not only the top two backs off the board, they’re the top-2 picks overall.

For now it appears as if Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch are #1 picks who are being taken off the board before Baltimore’s Ray Rice, whose ADP is down to about 7. That’s fine, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be down on Rice, who remains incredibly durable and consistent. He’s probably safer than the three guys above, and it’s worth noting that he is pining for more action in the passing game this year.

Cleveland’s Trent Richardson was being drafted around 6-7 overall in May drafts, but his stock will likely slip a bit because of yet another injury concern. The bruised calf muscle really isn’t a big deal, and the team is simply being cautious if they hold him out for the rest of their OTAs, as expected. But it is certainly a red flag for a guy whose physical running style has led to injury issues in college and in his first pro season in 2012. We don’t think Richardson is a #1 pick at this point.

Philly’s LeSean McCoy is still well within the first round in terms of ADP (8-9 in PPR and non-PPR). But while the Eagles will possibly run the ball over 60% of the time this year or more, head coach Chip Kelly does like to rotate his backs, and they have good depth behind McCoy. McCoy is a fine player and on his own is very worthy of a high #1 pick, but there is a pretty good chance that he’s pulled from games for decent stretches and annoys those who use that #1 pick on him. McCoy is obviously the main guy, but hopefully we’ll have a better idea about what to expect from RBs not named McCoy in this backfield late in the summer.

Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller has proven a lot the last two years – including that he can play hurt – and this year he will have a larger role than he’s previously had and in an offense that will emphasize the run and the short passing game. Spiller is not viewed as a complementary back by the new coaching staff and is absolutely worth drafting in the first round. In fact, we’d probably consider ourselves lucky to get him around his 8-9 overall ADP.

If you’re looking at going RB-RB while drafting near the end of the first round, Washington’s Alfred Morris should be there for you, since he’s consistently drafted around 12-13. He’s not exactly a proven commodity, and you do worry about the fickle Mike Shanahan a little, but Morris’ excellent 2012 season should remain the focus when drafting this year. They may run fewer read-option plays in 2013, which could hurt Morris’ effectiveness. But I think Morris has serious untapped potential in the passing game.

Fantasy owners are gobbling up RBs in the 1^st round this year like crazy, but they’re also very inclined to draft a RB in the 2^nd round, as Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, and Stevan Ridley are each being drafted from picks 12-24. Only Bush with an ADP of 31 slips out of the top-24 in a non-PPR league.

People are so into the RBs this year that they have no qualms drafting an aging Frank Gore as early as the late 2^nd round, and more likely the 3^rd round (he’s 21.2 in a PPR and 31 in a non-PPR). That’s over 20 spots higher than he was going in 2012. The Achilles injury suffered by Kendall Hunter probably helps, as do two consecutive relatively productive seasons for Gore. Gore usually isn’t a big TD guy and his reception totals have been way down the last two years, which makes his high ADP a slight surprise.

If you want Darren Sproles in a PPR league, he’s a good bet to go off the board early in the 3^rd round (26 ADP in PPR). He’s more affordable in a non-PPR (36), but also a significantly less productive player.

One of my rules this year is that, if a player has missed multiple games in multiple years, including 2012, I’m not drafting him in at least the first two rounds. Fantasy owners tend to agree, since DeMarco Murray’s ADP is down to around 26, or an early 3^rd-round pick. I may pull the trigger on Murray in the 3^rd if I was fairly desperate for a back, but his recent OTA injury issue certainly doesn’t help. Murray guarantees he will play all 16 games this year, but that actually seems very far-fetched and a guarantee like that really means nothing.

I loved him last year, but until we see clear evidence of the coaching staff trusting him, we’re probably going to pass on David Wilson with a very high ADP of 29 in a PPR and 31 in a non-PPR. His talent and potential is obvious, but so is his small margin for error, especially if someone other than Andre Brown emerges as a viable option, which is very possible. Even if Brown is his only obstacle, Brown is a threat since he’ll likely be, at worst, the goal-line back. Brown has his own issues (durability), but Wilson’s downside is still very clear and present.

The first rookie off the board is Denver’s Montee Ball with an ADP of 35 in a PPR and 56 in a non-PPR (those numbers seem to be reversed, actually). I understand the appeal of Ball, but 35 overall is a little high at this early stage. If he’s ripping it up in training camp and appears set as the lead back, then that’s fine. But we’re not there yet with Ball, who has to earn the trust of his QB and the coaches (probably in that order). The good news they have been talking him up in the OTAs and appear very inclined to hand him the lead role.

Pittsburgh’s Le'Veon Bell is right behind Ball with an ADP of 40 in both PPR and non-PPR, but do keep in mind the data on rookies is always lagging a little behind this time of the year. Bell is usually the first rookie back off the board, and rightfully so.

The presumptive starter in Miami, Lamar Miller, checks in with an ADP of 39 in a PPR and 44 in a non-PPR. That’s fine considering how early the RBs are going off the board, but an early 4^th round pick does seem a little scary for a guy with 51 career carries. I liked what I saw from Miller, but his margin for error could be fairly small with rookie Mike Gillislee looking very capable and Daniel Thomas still on the roster. If anything, these young RBs going so high might be reason enough to lock in two quality backs very early in your draft so you don’t have to overextend yourself and take an unproven back this early.

If you’re wondering what to do with San Diego’s Ryan Mathews, the short answer is “don’t draft him in the 4^th round” because that’s when he’s going, according to our digits. Mathews’ ADP is 43-48 (PPR vs. Non-PPR). That’s down more than 20 slots from 2012’s final numbers. Ironically, this is about where we had him in 2012 (20 spots lower than most), yet after we actually saw his lame ’12 season, I would not take him that high, especially since their OL looks like one of the five worst in the league this year. The only good news for Mathews is that they really haven’t acquired a legitimate threat to his lead job – although Ahmad Bradshaw is still out there.

The data on New York’s Chris Ivory is probably still a little raw, since he just joined the Jets a little over a month ago, but for what it’s worth he’s at 94 in a PPR and 74 in a non-PPR. If that sticks then that’s still too high for a back who offers nothing in the passing game (or at least he hasn’t yet) and most importantly has had major issues staying healthy despite never handling a large role. The team should also stink. Even on the high end of that ADP I probably wouldn’t draft him late in the 6^th round.

A great example of how RB-hungry fantasy owners are this year is Vick Ballard, whose ADP slotted him in the top-50 overall in our initial numbers. Ballard is the definition of rock solid, but that’s a lot to pay for a guy who has no special qualities. Ballard is clearly the guy heading into training camp, and he should be the same for Week One if healthy, but we can’t say he has a great stranglehold on the lead job. His ADP was at least at 58 in a non-PPR league, which is a little better.

Fantasy owners seem to be sold on rookie Eddie Lacy, whose ADP is in the 50-55 range for PPR and non-PPR. That does seem a little high based on his durability issues and more so on a potential logjam in this backfield, so he’ll probably have to be doing well and looking good in August to maintain it. But I do like Lacy this year, despite the timeshare. He’s clearly the most talented back in GB since Ahman Green.

The numbers probably need to be corrected some, as Rashard Mendenhall has a realistic ADP of 79 in a non-PPR, but a surprisingly-high ADP of 60 in a PPR. Mendenhall has essentially been named the starter, but Ryan Williams and Stepfan Taylor could be threat to his starting job if he doesn’t perform, so this is a little high for Mendenhall right now. On the other hand, the way RBs are quickly flying off the board this year, Mendenhall is relatively affordable.

It’s looking like a serious RBBC in St. Louis, so Daryl Richardson’s ADP (65 in PPR and 83 in non-PPR) should probably be higher. I’m giving Richardson the advantage for having the most value, but Isaiah Pead and the rookie Zac Stacey could easily be serious threats to Richardson’s role and fantasy bottom line. There will likely be a correction this summer for all the Ram backs once we know more about their roles. Zac Stacey’s ADP is in the 95-100 range in PPR and non-PPR, with Isaiah Pead at 98 in a PPR and 118 in a non-PPR. It’s almost impossible to know if those ADPs are too high or low until we get into camp and see who’s doing what. There is a chance that Pead settles into an expansive role and surprises for fantasy, but there’s a lot of competition for the ball in this backfield and this is a player with 13 career touches in his one season and he’s just been slapped with a 1-game suspension for Week One. ADPs of 97 and 117 mean he’s a 9^th or 10^th round pick, which is too high. As for Stacey, he does give them a little more bulk in the backfield and he has talent, but he was also only a 5^th round pick and he’ll have to earn a role in camp.

I like Bengal rookie Giovani Bernard, but there’s no way I’d take him as high as his current PPR ADP of 66. He’s at least a much more realistic 75 in a non-PPR. We’ve learned over and over again not to rely on complementary backs because they’re too hit-or-miss, and Bernard is expected to be more of a complement than a threat to BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP of 58, 74). Until we see clear signs in the preseason that he’s poised to handle a larger role than expected, Bernard is someone who should typically be drafted in the 9^th or 10^th round. For now, I just don’t have a lot of confidence in OC Jay Gruden taking full advantage of Bernard’s skills and versatility.

Players like Andre Brown (72), Jonathan Stewart (72), and Shane Vereen (74) have ADPs in PPR that are too high. They are at least better in non-PPR with ADPs of 93, 78, and 85, respectively.

New Orleans’ Mark Ingram checks in as the 32^nd RB listed by ADP, and I would love to get him that far down the positional rankings. On the downside, his ADP of 77 in PPR and 89 in a non-PPR league doesn’t exactly reflect a bargain. I could be fooled again by Ingram, but with Chris Ivory gone things do appear to be setting up nicely for Ingram, who the team is expected to commit him a little more in 2013.

For as much hype as C.J. Spiller is getting this spring, veteran Fred Jackson doesn’t seem to be seriously plummeting down draft boards, but he is down over 50 spots from 2012 because he was quite high last year with an ADP in the low-30s. Jackson this year is at 83 in a PPR and 110 in a non-PPR. I would venture to guess that he can be had later than that, though, due to the Spiller hype. The Bills will run the ball a lot and if Jackson is getting it done he will get the ball, so he could have some sneaky value. He’s ancient for a RB at 32, but his career workload is very low for someone that age. Of course, he’s had his share of injury problems the last two years.

Philly’s Bryce Brown checks in the RB ADP order right around where we have him ranked. Although his ADP of 88 in a PPR (and 107 in non-PPR) is pretty high, I do like him a lot in the mid-30s overall at RB. Brown could possibly get 150+ carries for the Eagles, although the addition of Felix Jones could mean fewer touches for Brown, especially if he fumbles. If he doesn’t, he’s clearly better than Jones and should get a lot of work.

Rookie RB Johnathan Franklin has an ADP of 90 and 115 (PPR and non-PPR), and that’s way too high. While I like him a lot, we have him in the high-50s at RB, and his ADP reflects a RB who is in the top-40. He could easily ride the pine for most of the season if Lacy is healthy.

Houston’s Ben Tate was worthless last year and is a pretty serious injury risk, but things are already looking more positive for him in the final year of his contract in 2013 because of a calf strain that will prevent starter Arian Foster from working out until the team kicks off training camp in late July. If Tate can stay healthy, there’s little doubt the team would like to ask to him to handle well more than 100 carries this year (he had 175 in 2011). His ADP of 95 and 109 (PPR, non-PPR) still seems a little high for a #2 RB with durability issues, but it does look better after this Foster scare. Foster’s yards-per-touch numbers have been slipping, too, so Tate could be a big factor if he can stay healthy.

Right around 100 overall we start to see the league’s top #2 and complementary backs going off the board with players like Bernard Pierce, DeAngelo Williams, Danny Woodhead, Knowshon Moreno, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Bush, Joseph Randle, and LaMichael James. Some of these players will settle in with higher ADP numbers and will go later, but someone like Bradshaw could rise slightly depending on where he signs.

Denver’s Willis McGahee has an ADP in the 125-145 range, but that will likely drop considerably in the summer even if he isn’t released.

I really don’t see rookie RB Denard Robinson (a former college QB) as being worth anything close to his 125-145 ADP, but we’ll see how things are going in camp. I still think veteran Justin Forsett is the primary backup.

Best RB Values:

Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months. I had to stretch more than usual to find even four somewhat viable values and super values.

Eddie Lacy, 50
Mark Ingram, 77
Bryce Brown, 88
Ahmad Bradshaw, 115

Super Value Alert:

These players aren’t in our top-150, but they have a chance to surprise.

Jonathan Dwyer, 150
Mike Gillislee, 154
Bilal Powell, 164
Latavius Murray, 151

Notable players who don’t have enough data to analyze to arrive at ADP as of late-May: Knile Davis, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Kerwynn Williams, Lance Dunbar, Alex Green, Cedric Peerman, Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson, and Beanie Wells.

Wide Receivers

Cincy’s A.J. Green was a nice value of sorts in 2012 with an ADP around 25, so he might have been available early in the 3^rd round. This year, he won’t likely make it past the midway point of the second round, since his ADP is 13 in PPR and non-PPR. His high non-PPR ADP speaks to his ability to score TDs (he scored in nine straight games last year).

Fantasy owners were skeptical of Dallas’ Dez Bryant in 2012, but they’re officially sold (at least most of them). Bryant’s ADP is inside the top-20 for both PPR and non-PPR, and that’s up over 20 spots from 2012.

Given all the hype surrounding him last year, it’s not a shock that Atlanta’s Julio Jones’ ADP is actually down from 2012. But it’s only down 6 spots, since Jones did have a good year overall. He’s a nice pick toward the end of the 2nd round.

Fantasy owners don’t seem too concerned about the addition of Wes Welker in Denver for Demaryius Thomas, since Thomas is the 6^th WR off the board with an ADP of 27. That’s up over 30 spots from last year.

Things could change in the summer, but Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald’s ADP is down 10 spots from last year, yet this year he actually has a legit NFL stating QB throwing him the ball. Fitzgerald looks like a small value with an ADP of 31, down 10 spots from 2012.

It’s fair to say the masses are sold on Green Bay’s Randall Cobb, whose ADP is shows him to be a top-10 WR with an average draft position of 33, and that’s even in a non-PPR league. I would not take him that high in a non-PPR, but in a PPR it’s a realistic price to pay for a guy who should be a lock for 80+ grabs.

One of these years, Roddy White is going to fall off, but it didn’t happen last year and he wound up being a value. It might be tougher for him to be a value with another year under his belt, but his ADP helps that cause a little, since it’s down 9 spots from last year and sits at 36.

The switch to Denver cost Wes Welker over 20 spots in ADP. He’s down to about 47 in PPR and non-PPR, which is still a 4^th-round pick. That’s kind of high for a player who will move to a new team and could easily settle in as the third passing option for Peyton Manning. Welker will be hard-pressed to exceed 80 catches, and he’s usually not a big TD guy, so he’ll have to get lucky with more TDs than anyone expects to match that ADP.

Everyone’s all over Green Bay’s Randall Cobb, so the value on the Packers could be Jordy Nelson, whose ADP is down 16 spots from last year, as he sits around 48-53 (higher in PPR). Nelson’s injury-plagued 2012 will go down as a disappointment for fantasy purposes, but his stats suggest that he’s still one of the most dangerous and efficient WRs in the NFL on a per-play basis. His 68.1% catch rate and 10.35 YPT were both down pretty significantly from 2011, but also well-above league average in both categories.

I loved Indy’s Reggie Wayne last year, but I’m a little concerned this year. Not only is it a new offense and his first in a west coast-based scheme, his ADP is up over 20 spots from last year. In addition, the team should have improved weaponry for QB Andrew Luck, so he might not lock on Wayne quite as much this year. Wayne actually decreased his catch rate and yards-per-target last year, so his production was a function of volume (and certainly not TDs with 5). Wayne’s going to cost a 5^th round pick this year, which isn’t terrible but it’s certainly not an appealing spot for a guy who’ll be 34 this year.

New York’s Hakeem Nicks has been pretty fragile and might be distracted this year with a contract issue (his is up after this season), but at least it appears as if fantasy owners have tired of his issues. His ADP is up over 20 spots from 2012, and sits around 55 overall.

New England’s Danny Amendola is a risk because his reckless playing style, but in a PPR league he looks like a risk worth taking. There should be a ton of targets to be had this year for the Pats, and his ADP is a very reasonable 60, so he could be available in the 6^th round and should be in the 5^th. Given the reward, he looks like he’s worth the risk. He’ll probably miss some time, but if you get lucky and he plays for your fantasy playoffs, he should be quite handy.

The move from Pittsburgh to Miami has cost Mike Wallace 11 spots on his ADP, but keep in mind his stock wasn’t exactly soaring on the Steelers last year after a coordinator change and a holdout. Still, an ADP of 57 in a non-PPR and 63 in a PPR seems a tad high for a guy switching teams and sure to see a drop in QB play.

Despite admitting this off-season that he might not be 100% all year in 2013, Washington’s Pierre Garcon’s ADP is up 11 spots in 2013. He’s at 67 in PPR and 61 in non-PPR. Garcon also is recovering from labrum surgery that isn’t reflected in his ADP. But on the upside, his QB is coming back tremendously well from his knee injury. Clearly, fantasy owners recognize his major upside if all goes well this year, and I agree that he is a very worthy risk.

Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown had a disappointing season in 2012, but he did catch fire late and was a top-20 guy the final five games of the season. Fantasy owners don’t seem to be reacting to the departure of Mike Wallace, as they have lowered Brown’s ADP 20 spots to the 65-70 range. Oddly enough, he’s higher in PPR at 69. That means he’s an excellent value pick because he’ll be the #1 WR here and TE Heath Miller’s availability is in question. I still have a lot of faith in Brown, who is a good fit for Todd Haley’s offense (Mike Wallace was not).

Denver’s Eric Decker final numbers were a little better than he actually was over the course of the whole season, so his 2012 ADP of around 50 was about right. So you’d think his 2013 ADP would be at least 50. But the team signed Wes Welker, and that move appears to concern people just a little bit, as Decker’s ADP is 18 spots in a PPR. He’s a little higher in a non-PPR at 65, which makes sense because he’s a great TD guy.

To no one’s surprise, the first rookie off the board is St. Louis’ Tavon Austin, whose ADP is about 75 in a PPR. Unfortunately it’s nearly impossible to predict his stats because he’s in his first season and it’s a leap of faith to have confidence in OC Brian Schottenheimer, who really isn’t respected much around the league. But based on his raw talent, the ability his QB brings to the table, and the hole left by Danny Amendola, Austin could easily perform to that ADP or better.

Indy’s T.Y. Hilton was definitely a flash player in 2012, and he had a great thing going with his QB on downfield throws and he made a lot of big plays. But his role is a little unsettled in 2013 with Darius Heyward-Bey added to the mix, plus the TE Coby Fleener’s role is about to expand. That said I think his ADP of 87 in a PPR league is too high. It’s understandably higher in a non-PPR (80), but I think you can do better for a WR in the 7^th or 8^th round.

As much as it pains me to say it based on his last few seasons, Dallas’ Miles Austin could be a value this year with an ADP pushing 100. Health is obviously a concern, but he’s apparently doing all he can to stay on the field, and now he should be pushed by talented rookie Terrance Williams, and that could actually wind up being a positive. This is a big year for Austin, and he’s certainly in a good situation on the Cowboys and has the talent to take full advantage, so he could actually be a nice player to target for a #3 spot in the 8^th or 9^th round.

Veterans Steve Smith and Greg Jennings are the clear #1 wideouts for the Panthers and Vikings, and while they’re aging and didn’t have great seasons in 2012, their ADPs are down 31 and 47 spots, respectively. Smith’s ADP is in the 72-78 range depending on PPR or not, with Jennings in the 75-80 range. Most likely, the fact that the RBs are being drafted higher this year is a factor in their lowered ADPs. At least with Smith, that should present some value. Jennings has injury concerns now that haven’t been helped by a twisted ankle in the OTAs this month.

San Diego’s Danario Alexander should be a top-50 pick based on how he ended the 2012 season as a top-10 fantasy WR in the final 8 games of the season. But fantasy players clearly recognize that he’s had a ton of knee problems and could still be a ticking-time bomb in terms of injuries, so his ADP in the 78-84 range is more realistic.

Jacksonville’s Cecil Shorts is a very intriguing option this year because his stats and big plays in 2012 were impressive considering the circumstances. But he’ll have to handle being the team’s clear #1 WR the first four weeks of the season and his QB play isn’t exactly stellar. While he clearly showed a knack for big plays, I felt there was a small fluky element to them last year, but his 89-96 ADP range does seem very fair and probably reflects the issues outlined above.

If Cleveland’s Josh Gordon didn’t still have some maturity and character issues lingering, he’d be a really nice option 91-95 picks into drafts. But unfortunately, I believe those concerns are still present. Still, that’s not a hefty price to pay for a guy who will clearly be the #1 WR in the offense, one he is a very good fit for because of his ability to separate from defenders downfield.

He’s had some serious injury concerns the last couple of years, and now the Eagles are expected to run the ball a ton under Chip Kelly, so it’s understandable that Philly’s Jeremy Maclin has seen his ADP slip 45 spots in 2013 from 2012. He’s in the 96-104 range. DeSean Jackson is down only 26 spots from last year, yet his was lower in 2012.

San Fran’s Anquan Boldin’s ADP even before the Michael Crabtree injury was in the 106-118 range. That would have been too high before the injury, but it’s about right now that Boldin’s role will be much larger in 2013 with the Niners.

I do like Antonio Brown a lot, but there’s a great opportunity for Emmanuel Sanders this year, which is a contract year for him. Like Brown he’s a better fit for the offense than Mike Wallace, and the versatile Sanders could definitely surprise with an increased role and plenty of motivation. His ADP is higher at 110 in a non-PPR for some season, but in a PPR his ADP of 124 looks appealing.

New Orleans’ Lance Moore and Tampa’s Mike Williams were both top-25 WRs in 2012 (Moore was 21 and Williams was 18), yet their standing in the WR ADP rankings is low at 38 and 40, respectively. They’re both in the 95-115 range for PPR and non-PPR, which seems about right, yet both are clearly values compared to the other WRs.

The second rookie off the board is Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins, which is totally understandable based on the fact that he’s almost a lock to start opposite Andre Johnson. But a range of 104-120 (120 in a PPR) is still a little high for a rookie in a run-based offense.

Thanks in large part to his 4-game suspension, Jacksonville’s Justin Blackmon has seen his ADP drop 42 spots compared to last year. He’s in the 117-130 range (117 in non-PPR). An 11^th-round pick isn’t too bad for a guy who should be an impact player when he returns, but we’d use a pick on Blackmon only when the viable options have been exhausted and/or if we were okay taking on some risk for some upside.

The next rookie off the board is New England’s Aaron Dobson, with an ADP of 116-133, but he’s a long way from proving to be worth even an 11^th- or 12^th-round pick. He’s the favorite to start for now, but he has a steep learning curve and this offense has been tough to pick up for veterans and rookies alike. While the higher ADP makes sense based on opportunity and raw talent, Dobson isn’t a player you’ll want to be aggressive about acquiring just yet.

Oakland’s Denarius Moore has seen his ADP drop 30 spots from 2012, and that makes sense given his shaky season and the loss of QB Carson Palmer. Moore still has pretty special ability, but it’s fair for him to drop into the 120-130 overall range given his disappointing progress and shaky QB situation.

Viking rookie Cordarrelle Patterson is the fourth rookie off the board according to the ADP, which is right in line with our current rankings. But he’s very raw as a route-runner and should be more of a gimmick player than a legit starting receiver, so there’s no reason to go crazy when it comes to drafting him. His ADP is in the 120-140 range. It’s higher in non-PPR, which makes sense because he probably won’t catch more than 50 passes this year.

Two wideouts who stand out at the bottom of the top-150 overall are Alshon Jeffery and Chris Givens, who are both in the low-130s in non-PPR and in the mid-140s in PPR. That’s probably about right for Jeffrey, who I like but who will always play second-fiddle to Brandon Marshall. But that could be a great value for Givens. It’s a crowded receiving corps, but of all the wideouts on the roster, he’s actually shown the most potential in the NFL.

Best WR Values:

Dwayne Bowe, 52
Jordy Nelson, 53
Pierre Garcon, 67
Steve Smith, 79
Emmanuel Sanders, 124
Chris Givens, 146

Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.

Super Value Alert:

These players aren’t in our top-150, but they have a chance to surprise.

Rod Streater, 185
Kendall Wright, 153
Michael Floyd, 157
Mohamed Sanu, 163
Brandon Lloyd, 165

Notable players who don’t have enough data to analyze to arrive at ADP as of late-May: Jarius Wright, Vincent Brown, A.J. Jenkins, Jacoby Ford, Jon Baldwin, Markus Wheaton, Ace Sanders, Terrance Williams, and Josh Boyce.

Tight Ends

New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham isn’t in the 1^st-round conversation, but he comes up quickly thereafter, with an ADP of 16 in a PPR and 21 in a non-PPR. I’m okay with him in those spots, for sure. Keep in mind he could be their #1 target in the offense and his head coach is back.

It’s too early to get a feel for Rob Gronkowski’s ADP after it was revealed this week that he will require another surgery on his back, but it’s definitely going to drop from the 29-32 range it was. That ADP was already lowered based on injury concerns, but this back situation is more serious, so I would guess he’ll be at least at 50 overall in a few weeks.

Despite some injury issues of his own, Aaron Hernandez still checks in around 45 overall in PPR and non-PPR, and that’s due in part to Gronk’s issues. In fact, it could rise with the recent news of Gronkowski’s back surgery, since that ADP is almost exactly where Hernandez finished last summer with a much healthier Gronk on the roster. I like Hernandez a lot, but if his ADP climbs too high, I might pass on him due to his injury concerns.

On the heels of a very productive 2012 season, Dallas’ Jason Witten has seen his ADP rise 32 spots in PPR (up to 48). He’s at 58 in a non-PPR, which is fair because he’s not a big TD guy.

Coming off yet another brilliant season, Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez has seen his ADP rise 41 spots from 2012 in a PPR (he’s at 57). He’s at 66 in a non-PPR. Although Gonzo is getting much more love than he did last year, he might actually still be slightly undervalued.

Our current data shows Vernon Davis’ ADP down a few spots from 2012 (he’s at 68 in PPR and 75 in non-PPR), but this is not reflective of the fallout of WR Michael Crabtree’s injury. I would imagine he will rise, but if he rises too much he’ll be less desirable, since he’s still hard to trust.

Perhaps my favorite value at TE this year, Dennis Pitta, has seen his ADP soar an amazing 130 spots from 2012. He wasn’t on the radar last summer, but he certainly is now because of his productive season last year and the fact that his role should expand with the team so thin at WR. If you hold off on drafting your TE, Pitta is a great option around 80-85 picks into a draft.

Thanks to what can be described as a breakout season, Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph has seen his ADP rise 50 spots from 2012. He’s a solid option in the upper 80s overall if you hold off on your TE, but he’s a better pick in a non-PPR than he is in PPR.

Future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates continues to see his stock plummet in the eyes of fantasy owners. His ADP was down last year, and it’s down another 50 spots in 2013. At least drafting him in the 95-105 range isn’t a major investment at this point, and he’s still moving fairly well so if the OL can somehow come together and perform decently, Gates could easily outperform his draft position.

It’s a little surprising to see two TEs with nice upside in Jared Cook and Greg Olsen fall so low on the ADP list. Both have ADPs in the 120 range in PPR and in the 130 range in non-PPR. Cook should probably be higher in non-PPR, since he’s not exactly a volume receiver and is more of a big-play threat. But if the positive reports out of St. Louis continue, his ADP should be on the rise. I don’t totally trust Olsen despite a productive and more consistent 2012 season, but he’s also a nice value based on his large role in the passing game.

The devastating knee injury suffered late last year by Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller is clearly a factor in his low ADP. He’s in the 145-150 range in PPR and non-PPR. At that late stage, he might be worth a shot, but I’ll probably pass on him completely unless he shocks in the preseason by practicing and playing games with no issues.

The first rookie TE off the board is Tyler Eifert, which is understandable. But it’s also understandable that he’s only in the 145-150 range, since we don’t have a great handle on his role and it remains to be seen if the coaches can fully take advantage of him with another viable TE on the team in Jermaine Gresham. Gresham is actually a couple spots below Eifert, which is a mild surprise but likely a function of people looking for upside. We know what Gresham is at this point, and his production should drop with Eifert in the mix.

Detroit’s Brandon Pettigrew had a down year in 2012, but his PPR ADP of 159 is absolutely insane. I would imagine that will rise since Pettigrew could easily haul in 70+ balls this year on the Lions, who are still thin at receiver and will still throw the ball a ton.

Washington’s Fred Davis isn’t really on the radar right now with an ADP of 160. His comeback from an Achilles injury is going pretty well, but that is a nasty injury and he could be limited most of the season. But if things are going well in the summer, he could become an appealing late-round pick.

Other than Pettigrew, there are a ton of appealing values at TE, at least for now. They include Jordan Cameron (154), Coby Fleener (166), Rob Housler (165), and Marcedes Lewis (225). I really like Fleener as an upside #2, and Cameron and Housler have the athletic ability and opportunity to surprise. Believe it or not, I actually like Lewis a bit. I saw some chemistry with QB Chad Henne, who I think will start most of their games, and Lewis could be helped by the fact that they will have a stud RT in the lineup in #1 pick Luke Joeckel.

It looks like Denver’s Jacob Tamme is dead to people for fantasy, since his ADP is way over 200. That’s a bit too low on the TE rankings, but he is definitely hard to get behind this year with competition for targets at his position, and with Wes Welker added.

Jeff Cumberland is actually the starter for the Jets, so his 300+ ADP is a bit over the top. He should settle into the top-200 at least this summer.

Best TE Values:

Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.

Dennis Pitta, 81
Jared Cook, 122
Greg Olsen, 122
Antonio Gates, 96

Super Value Alert:

Brandon Pettigrew, 159
Coby Fleener, 166
Jordan Cameron, 154
Rob Housler, 165
Marcedes Lewis, 225

These players aren’t in our top-150, but they have a chance to surprise.

Notable players who don’t have enough data to analyze to arrive at ADP as of late-May: Tony Moeaki, David Ausberry, Ben Watson, and Travis Kelce.

Place Kickers

Especially with WR Michael Crabtree on the shelf for most of the season, I love San Fran’s Phil Dawson this year. He’s getting some love as the 6^th kicker taken, but not nearly enough for a guy who could easily kick 35-40 FGs this year. Actually, if you take David Akers’ attempts from 2011 along with Dawson’s conversion percentage in 2012, Dawson would have been pushing a whopping 50 FGs on the Niners last year.

For now, New England’s Stephen Gostkowski is the top PK off the board with an ADP around 140.

Viking kicker Blair Walsh is a close second, with an ADP of 142. That makes total sense given their improvements in 2013 and his brilliant 2012 season.

Atlanta’s Matt Bryant is next with an ADP of 152. He’s a very reliable option for sure.

Despite his dramatic falloff in 2012, fantasy owners still believe in Ram Greg Zuerlein, who checks in as the fourth kicker off the board. The Ram offense should be better this year, but that’s probably a little too optimistic for Zuerlein.

Raider PK Sebastian Janikowski ranks as a top-10 PK on our ADP list, but while he’s still a solid PK, he should not rank that high due to the fact that his team could struggle to move the ball with a new QB and two key weapons at receiver off to other teams.

Best PK Values:

Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.

Phil Dawson, 160
Dan Bailey, 173
Garrett Hartley, 170
Ryan Succop, 246

Notable players who don’t have enough data to analyze to arrive at ADP as of late-May: Caleb Sturgis, Graham Gano, Dustin Hopkins, Shayne Graham, and Giorgio Tavecchio.

Team Defenses

It’s no surprise to see the Seattle Seahawks top all other defenses in terms of ADP, but the number is too high. They are in the 95-105 range. That’s way too early for a defense. Seattle looked loaded on paper a few months ago, but there are already concerns with their pass rush given the 4-game suspension of DE Bruce Irvin and the injury status of DE Chris Clemons.

The Denver Broncos are next, but their ADP (110-130) is also too high. They are appealing for sure, but they did lose a key pass rusher in Elvis Dumervil.

The Chicago Bears defense was a fantasy juggernaut last year, but they’ve undergone some major changes. Their scheme should remain similar, but they lost two key coaches in Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, and also LB Brian Urlacher, who was a great leader here. They’re also getting older as a unit, so it’s fair that they’re only the 5^th defense off the board.

The Houston Texans ranked as the 6^th best DT in our default scoring system, yet they had eight games with 5 or fewer points, so they were very up-and-down. They’ll get LB Brian Cushing back this year, but they also lost some guys, so they don’t interest me much, especially since they’re the 4^th defense in our ADP rankings.

Despite the fact that they’ve been in the top-5 three straight years in leagues that don’t place a big emphasis on points and yardage allowed, the New England Patriots check in as only the 8^th-fantasy defense off the board. I like them a lot this year, so they are a great option if you hold off a little longer than most to draft your defense.

Fantasy owners have recognized the Tampa Bay Bucs for accumulating a lot of high-end talent on defense. Although their pass rush is still suspect, they have 4-5 impact players on defense now, and they are considered a top-10 defense, according to the ADP.

The Baltimore Raven defense has undergone a lot of changes this year, but they’re still pretty talented and could easily surprise and get it done, so they look like a value with an ADP around 150. They’re about the 10^th defense off the board.

If you hold off until the bitter end to draft a defense, the St. Louis Rams look viable. They emerged as a TD threat in 2012, and they have talent on all three levels, which explains why they are currently a top-12 defense, per the ADP.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are always effective for points and yardage allowed, but they have been miserable in all other areas. Fantasy owners finally seem to realize this, since they are out of the top-12.

On the heels of a disappointing 2012 campaign and some terrible performances for points and yardage allowed, the Green Bay Packer defense has fallen out of the top-12. But if you hold off very late on drafting your DT, they are still worth a shot. They still have the talent to make a significant fantasy impact.

The Minnesota Viking defense was actually a top-12 unit in most scoring systems last year, thanks mainly to their pass rush. But they’re off the grid for fantasy purposes right now. It’s hard to say with confidence they are draft-worthy, but they have added two potential impact players in the draft and could be better in 2013 than they were in 2012.
The San Diego Chargers were a top-5 defense in most scoring systems, due mainly to the fact that they scored 9 TDs. Fantasy owners aren’t impressed, though, as they are buried at the bottom of our ADP list.

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Friday, May 31, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #12 (2013 ADP Report)

2013 ADP Report