Monday, July 30, 2012

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #21 (TD Vultures)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #21
Published, July 30, 2012
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2012 TD Vultures

Published, 7/30/12


Whether you’re in a TD-only league or not, finding the endzone is obviously paramount to success in fantasy football. So while we started putting out this this preseason article to appease the TD-only dinosaurs out there (how you guys, doing, by the way?), the fact is it’s a worthwhile exercise to examine which players have a little more going for them than most in the scoring department.


For the most part, we’re not going to take up time our time and your time by writing about the league’s obvious choices in terms of scoring TDs.

Note: Any reference to “red zone” in this article refers to plays inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, while any reference to “goal line” refers to plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. These numbers can be found in sortable form in our Red Zone Tool.

Quarterbacks

Note: For QBs, we’re focusing on rushing TDs and that type of vulturing.

Cam Newton (Car) – Newton emerged as one of the best fantasy QBs in the land as a rookie, thanks to a record-setting 14 rushing TDs, 13 of which came in the red zone. He led all QBs with 39 rush attempts in the red zone, but even more mind-boggling was that that number tripled the QBs tied for second in that category, as both Tim Tebow and Tom Brady at 13 attempts. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see that Newton was also tops in goal-line rushing attempts with 14 and scored 8 of his 14 TDs from inside the five-yard line. After being involved in a whopping 75% of Carolina’s RZ plays last season, it’ll be interesting to see if he can keep that number up in 2012. The Panthers seemed to find more balance in their offense by the end of 2011 and have added yet another weapon to their backfield in FB/RB Mike Tolbert, who joins the already dangerous duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Banking on Newton to score 14 times on the ground probably isn’t wise, but he should still remain one of the top rushing TD threats in the league among QBs.

Tim Tebow will probably threaten Mark Sanchez's starting job, but we also expect him to cut into Shonn Greene's scoring chances, too.

Tim Tebow (NYJ) – As a starter in Denver last season, Tebow managed to score 6 rushing TDs, all in the red zone. He was tied for second among QBs, with 13 rushes in the red zone, but surprisingly had just three rushes inside the five, although he did score on two of those attempts. While he’ll start the season as the backup to Mark Sanchez in New York, the Jets have made it clear they plan to take advantage of Tebow’s unique skills, which means we could see him in specific packages to be primarily used as a runner. That could result in more rushing attempts near the goal line, which could hurt someone like Shonn Greene, especially since Greene’s only real chance to score is from close range. If Tebow is to get in the range of 20 snaps per game, he probably won’t have any fantasy value, but if he ends up overtaking Sanchez for the starting job, which wouldn’t be surprising, he could become a viable option, thanks to his legs.

Running Backs


Michael Turner (Atl) – While he might have worn down in the second half of 2011, we still knew that, if the Falcons got near the endzone, there was a very good chance Turner was getting the ball. He led the league in both RZ rushing attempts (60) and GL rushing attempts (28) while being tied for third in the team’s percentage of RZ plays (61%) and tied for sixth in percentage of GL plays (54%). Turner scored 11 rushing TDs last season and 9 of them came on GL rushes, which is exactly what you want to see if you’re looking to Bogart TDs. As a bigger, bruising back, we’d expect him to remain very involved near the endzone, although the team has talked about doing their best to keep him fresh by pulling back a little from his workload. That could mean getting Jason Snelling or even Jacquizz Rodgers involved more in the running and passing game, as well as a heavier reliance overall on throwing the ball. So it’s possible we’ll see guys like Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez play bigger roles in the red zone. But ultimately, when it’s 1st and goal at the five yard line, Turner’s going to be in the backfield, and he’s probably going to get the rock.

Michael Bush (Oak) – Before Darren McFadden went down with a foot injury, Bush’s only significant role came as a vulture near the goal line. Three of his seven rushing TDs on the season came when McFadden was still playing and all seven of his scores came on GL rushes. He was tied for 4th among RBs, with 55% of Oakland’s GL plays and was 10th at the position with 47% of the team’s RZ plays. After being the main ball carrier for the majority of 2011 as a Raider, he’ll now join a Bear backfield that includes another great talent in Matt Forte. The addition of Bush as a bigger back makes sense, since it’s fairly obvious the Bears don’t fancy Forte as a goal-line back. Forte had just five GL rushes, for example, and he didn’t score on any of them. In fact, of the 4 TDs Forte did have last season, only one came in the red zone. Forte has scored only 1 rushing TD per every 48 carries in his career (1013 carries, 21 rushing TDs). Forte scored only 3 rushing TDs last year, yet Marion Barber scored 5 rushing TDs from Weeks Four through Eleven (Barber didn’t have a carry before Week Four), so Barber was the goal-line back. Bush, for comparison sake, has scored a TD for every 30 carries, so his track record in this area is much better than Forte’s. We’d expect Chicago’s offense to be better than the one Bush played for in Oakland last season, and with the team’s lack of confidence in Forte near the endzone, Bush should get a decent number of opportunities to score, which is why we’d consider him a viable flex option to start the season, despite the fact that he’s #2 on the depth chart. We can only hope that adding a big weapon in WR Brandon Marshall and what should be an improved OL will only help Bush get chances near the endzone.

Trent Richardson (Cle) – When you add the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson to a backfield that managed just two rushing TDs in the red zone last season, there’s a pretty good chance he’s going to be the guy they give the ball to when the goal line is within sight. At 5’11” and 224 pounds, Richardson gives the Browns a bruising back who can get them tough yards, but he’s also a player who can stay on the field in third-down situations because of his pass-catching abilities, which can only help his chances of racking up scores. In his only season truly carrying the load at Alabama in a tough college conference, Richardson scored 24 TDs (3 as a receiver), so he can clearly take the ball across the stripe. Cleveland other options in the backfield include Montario Hardesty, Chris Ogbonnaya, and Brandon Jackson, none of whom are close to Richardson when it comes to pure talent. The Brown offense has a chance to surprise this year, so we see them scoring a fair number of times in 2012, yet for now, they still don’t have much to truly hang their hats on offensively, so once again, it should be all about Richardson when they’re in tight.

DeMarco Murray (Dal) – Despite a very good rookie season, it’s easy to forget that Murray was actually very ineffective in short-yardage situations – he scored just 1 TD on 19 red-zone rushes (he had only 2 TDs overall). But as a straight-line runner, he’s powerful and physical, skills that project well for short-yardage situations. With the Cowboys needing to replace the dominant red-zone production of WR Laurent Robinson, who scored 8 TDs on only 11 red-zone targets, it makes sense that some of that production would go to the running game, presuming Murray is healthy.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cin) – After having an inconsistent role in the Patriot offense over his first four seasons, Green-Ellis moves on to Cincinnati, where he projects as the main ball carrier for the Bengals in 2012. Despite scoring 11 TDs last year, Green-Ellis averaged just 9.3 FPG and ranked 28th among RBs. That doesn’t surprise us in the least, since he was part of the headache known as the Patriot RBBC in an offense that concerns itself most of the time with things like offensive balance. That shouldn’t be the case in Cincinnati, where the team is looking for equilibrium between their passing game and ground attack. While BJGE may not have had a consistent role in the offense, he did come through when given the chance in the red zone, which is not something we can say about veteran Cedric Benson, who never established himself as an effective goal-line back with the Bengals. All 11 of BJGE’s TDs came inside the 20, with 10 of those scores coming on GL rushes. He was tied for 20th among RBs in GL plays for his team at 32% and was tied for 14th with 41% in the red zone. While he may not be overly talented, Green-Ellis has proven to be reliable when given the chance, and maybe most important, hasn’t fumbled in his NFL career. When considering that the other options in the backfield include Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard, we think it’s a good bet that the Law Firm will continue to be a nice option near the endzone. And while the Bengal OL was partly to blame for Benson’s struggles in short-yardage, the group has been upgraded this off-season and is actually looking like one of the better lines in the league. And keep in mind that Benson was actually tied for second in the NFL with 56 red-zone carries (11th in goal-line carries). Green-Ellis really isn’t a guy we’re expecting to draft this year, but if we suffered a momentary lapse of reason and joined a TD-only league, he’d be one of our top targets.

Willis McGahee (Den) – Last season we correctly predicted that McGahee would be the lead back in Denver, which meant you probably got him as a nice value. He ended up tied with Arian Foster with eight 100-yard games, but he had his thunder stolen from him in the TD department by one Tim Tebow, who had 6 rushing TDs to McGahee’s 4. Only one of McGahee’s scores came from inside the red zone, and that was in Week Two, when Tebow was still on the bench. Now that Tebow’s gone and McGahee won’t be challenged for rushing attempts by Peyton Manning, he should be able to improve on the 21 RZ attempts and 7 GL attempts he had in 2011. Even with the presence of Tebow, McGahee still saw 41% of the team’s plays in GL situations, which ranked him 16th among RBs. We’d expect the offense to be much better under Manning’s watch this season, which is another reason to believe he’ll have a chance to top the 1 TD he had in the red zone. Our only concern would be the possible competition he might seen from Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Morenoand/or the team looking to throw more with the abundance of weapons they have in their receiving corps. But McGahee’s a power back, so unless he’s banged up, he’s going to get the nod when they’re looking to run the ball inside the 10. Don’t forget that back in 2009, McGahee managed to turn 124 touches for the Ravens into 14 TDs playing behind Ray Rice, so the guy has hit pay dirt in a lesser role. It’s entirely possible that McGahee’s TD outage last year will cause him to slip down draft boards, but with Peyton under center, that could make him a huge value.


Peyton Hillis (KC) – Hillis is a violent downhill runner whose biggest assets are his strength and physicality, so it’s certainly not a stretch to assume he’ll get many goal-line opportunities on the Chiefs this year. Jamaal Charles is actually a tough inside runner for his size, but he’s obviously lacking in the size department, and the Chiefs have been careful not to overexpose him when it comes to physical, short-yardage rushing attempts, especially coming off a torn ACL. Back in 2010, Hillis received a measly 13 carries inside the 10, yet he managed to score 11 rushing TDs, which speaks to his effectiveness as a goal-line back. Even more encouraging, he’s a very good receiver out of the backfield, which can only help his ability to score TDs. Two years ago he hauled in 61 passes, two of them for scores, to give him a nice TD total of 13. He’s already been rotating in quite frequently with Charles in Chief training camp, so don’t be surprised if Hillis delivers for those looking for TDs in 2012. After all, the guy running the offense this year (Brian Daboll) is the same guy who was calling the shots for the Browns in 2010 when Hillis was money in the bank for his fantasy owners. Hillis isn’t expected to carry a full load this season, which should help him stay fresh.

Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure (Det) – Combined, Lion RBs had 18 carries inside the 5-yard line last year – six different RBs alone had more than that. In fact, WR Calvin Johnson’s 7 goal-line targets led the NFL, and he had more chances in-tight than any Lions player, except the immortal Keiland Williams, who had 7 goal-line runs. One would expect the Lions to try to get a little bit more production out of their backs this year, even with a stud like Calvin creating mismatches in-tight (QB Matthew Stafford threw 103 passes inside the red zone, tied with Tom Brady for most in the NFL). Smith was productive down the stretch last year, and we’re eager to see what Leshoure can do once he returns from his suspension (although there’s still the Achilles issue). Either way, it’s hard to imagine the Lion RBs not falling backwards into a few more TDs this season.

John Kuhn (GB) – Kuhn has been the TD vulture in the NFL the last two seasons – of his 114 rushes in that time, 27 have come inside the 20, and 16 of those have come inside the 5, producing 8 TDs. Of his 36 pass targets over that time, 14 have come inside the 20, and 6 inside the 5, producing 4 TDs. Assuming Kuhn is healthy (he’s recovering from an MCL injury suffered during the playoffs), his role could be extremely similar. Remember that the Packers have uncertainty in their backfield as is, with James Starks, Alex Green, and Brandon Saine competing for touches.

Other obvious TD Vultures: Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, and Marshawn Lynch.

Watch List:

Delone Carter (Ind) – In ways, Carter seems like the perfect fit for what new coach Chuck Pagano and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians want to do with their run game. Carter’s a tough runner who runs low to the ground and has a compact build, and he can be successful on the inside because of his balance, vision, and ability to burst through the hole. And he was at least efficient when given a chance in-tight last year, scoring on 2 of his 3 carries inside the 5-yard line. Given his fit for the power scheme the Colts want to employ, he’s got a chance to challenge Donald Brown for touches, according to the Indianapolis Star. Carter wasn’t great last year, but Brown’s handle on the starting job is anything but secure (don’t discount rookie Vick Ballard, either).

Toby Gerhart (Min) – Gerhart didn’t have many opportunities inside the 5-yard line last year, but he converted 1 of his 2 rushes into a TD, and scored on his only pass target. It’s probably not surprising that a big bowling ball-type player would have success in short yardage, but why would Gerhart be considered in-tight when the club has Adrian Peterson? But that’s also why he has to be noted here. With Peterson coming off a nasty knee injury and his availability for the early part season unknown at this point, Gerhart could well see a much bigger role in the first month or so in 2012. And even if Peterson is playing, do the Vikings want to avoid getting him piled up in short-yardage situations?

Rashad Jennings (Jac) – Jennings missed all of last season with a knee injury, but he’s back in time for training camp in 2012 – good news for the Jags, considering RB Maurice Jones-Drew is holding out. But even if MJD eventually reports (we anticipate he will), Jennings could be a useful asset to spell the superstar. He’s a bigger back at 228 pounds, and he’s most functional in a straight-line role, which could help him in short-yardage situations. And if MJD does hold out into the season, the Jags might have no choice but to give most of their offensive touches to Jennings, even with his coming off the injury.

Brandon Jacobs (SF) – First, we have to see if he makes the team. Then we have to see if they will actually use him in goal-line situations. Jacobs seems to

have improved in that area, and the Niners clearly brought him in to handle short-yardage rushing situations.

Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald (Ari) – The QB situation might not be ideal, but Fitzgerald continues to get it done year after year. It certainly helps Fitzgerald’s numbers that the Cardinals don’t have a lot of talent when it comes to skill players. Last season, he was tied for 9th among WRs with 18 RZT and tied for 16th with 4 TDs. Even more impressive was Fitz being involved in 18% of the team’s RZ plays, which ranked him 5th at the position. Obviously, with his great size, Fitzgerald makes for a nice target, no matter who’s playing QB, but you would think he’d have more chances at the GL with an inconsistent rushing attack. However, he had just 1 GLT in 2011. We can only hope the team will see some improvement on offense, but that will start with whoever wins the QB battle, whether it’s Kevin Kolb or John Skelton. The bottom line is that Fitz has to be included in an article related to scoring, since he’d be a lock for double-digit TDs every year if he had a good QB tossing him the pill.

Brandon Marshall (Chi) – Marshall is yet another player who’s had to overcome shaky QB play to put up good numbers. After playing with a decent enough QB in Matt Moore last season in Miami, he’ll get a significant upgrade when he reunites with Jay Cutler in Chicago. It’s hard not to have high expectations for Marshall after he ranked 6th among WRs with 21 RZT and tied for 16th with 4 TDs inside the 20. He probably just missed/dropped 3-4 other sure TDs over the course of the regular season. Much like in Miami, Marshall will easily be the best option in the passing game when it comes to the Bears, and the only real threat we could see to his RZT would be TE Kellen Davis. Of course, the addition of one of the most famous TD vultures, RB Michael Bush, may cut into Marshall’s targets near the GL, but as one of the most physically gifted players at the position in the league, we fully expect the reunion with Cutler to go quite well. And it’s not like he can’t score a lot of TDs; back in 2009, Marshall hauled in 10 scores, from Kyle Orton, of all people. There’s a pretty good chance he hits double-digits this year with Cutler, so don’t let his lack of scoring lead you to believe he’s not potentially a strong TD option.

A.J. Green (Cin) – The rookie combination of Green and QB Andy Dalton went about as well as we could have hoped and could be even better this season. Green stepped right in as the team’s top threat in a season with a lot of turnover in the offense, especially at WR. He was tied for 12th among all WRs, with 17 RZT and scored 3 of his 7 TDs inside the 20. Those 17 RZT account for 28% of all the team’s targets in that area and put Green in a tie for 12th at the position. Green has freakish ability – his great hands and body control work well for him in the red zone – and he should continue to be dominant, but it wouldn’t surprise us to see TE Jermaine Gresham cut into his RZ targets just a little bit, although we’re still expecting another big season from Green in just his second year in the league. The Bengals are still going through a bit of a development phase at WR with some young and/or unproven players at the position, so expect Green to still be the top option with little- to-no competition.

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin (Dal) – If we knew Bryant wasn’t still having issues off the field and seemed poised to truly show us the best he has to offer in year three, he’d be a slam dunk on this list. But that’s not the case, so Austin deserves some love here as well. The bottom line with both is that they are receivers with size and red-zone potential. Bryant, in particular, can be unstoppable in the red zone, as evidenced by his 9 TDs on only 63 catches (a TD per 7 receptions). Austin, in an injury-plagued season, still caught 7 TDs and has hauled in as many as 11 TDs in a single season in the recent past. The main point here is very simple: Laurent Robinson scored 11 TDs last year, and he’s now gone, so those scores have to go somewhere. Even if Bryant and Austin split up just 50% of those scores, that would give Bryant 11-12 TDs and Austin 9-10, so they have to be in this article.

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker (Den) – With Tim Tebow at QB for most of the 2011 season, things weren’t exactly productive in the red zone for the Bronco WRs – Thomas and Decker combined for only 16 red-zone targets and 5 red-zone TDs. For comparison, 17 different WRs had at least that many red-zone targets by themselves, and 15 different WRs had at least that many red-zone scores. But expect things to change with Peyton Manning under center. Manning has ranked in the top 10 in red-zone pass attempts every year he’s played since we started keeping stats in 2002, and he’s ranked in the top 5 in seven of those nine years. In other words, our expectation is that these two gifted WRs are going to get a lot more opportunities.

Jordy Nelson (GB) – It’s easy to list a guy in a “TD Vultures” article who scored 15 TDs last year, but it’s also not wise to expect Nelson to put up that drastic a number again. But is there actually room for improvement here? In ways, perhaps. Nelson was one of the NFL’s top deep threats in 2011, and only 7 of his 15 TDs came within 20 yards of the endzone (on 15 targets), with 4 of those scores coming inside the 5. He might not score 15 again, as it’s so hard to predict long TDs, but his size makes him an ideal target inside the red zone, and expect QB Aaron Rodgers to continue looking for him in those situations.

Reggie Wayne (Ind) – Given the Colts’ ineptitude at the QB position last year, it’s hard to believe Wayne was as productive as he was – 75/960/4 with Dan Orlovsky, Kerry Collins, and Curtis Painter chucking the rock. And it was also hard to believe that Wayne signed on to play with rookie QB Andrew Luck, given that the general sentiment had the veteran WR following Peyton Manning wherever he went. But even without the legendary chemistry Wayne had with Manning, we still expect some improvement for him in 2012, given Luck’s natural ability. While we don’t expect Wayne to lead the league in goal-line targets as he did in 2009 (with 10, 4 becoming TDs), he’s shown in the recent past that his knowledge of route running and coverages makes him dangerous in the red zone, even if he doesn’t have ideal size. That’ll help a rookie like Luck out immensely.

Dwayne Bowe (KC) – Bowe’s a great example of how TDs in fantasy football are fickle. Despite only two fewer red-zone targets in 2011 than 2010 (17 and 19, respectively), and one more goal-line target (5 and 4), he scored 10 fewer TDs last year than the year before (5, down from 15). A big part of that was the injury to QB Matt Cassel, and perhaps a bigger part was just random variance. The hope from our end is that Bowe’s 15-TD explosion in 2010 wasn’t just a blip on the radar – he scored only 16 TDs combined in the other three of his last four seasons. But his size and athleticism combo suggests he has the ability to score double-digit TDs again.

Anquan Boldin (Bal) – It’s been years since Boldin has been considered a dominant WR, but with a lack of great talent in Baltimore, he still remains a consistent option for Joe Flacco. While Torrey Smith proved to be a nice deep threat, he was still raw and inconsistent, whereas Boldin provides Flacco with a sizeable target in the red zone. Boldin may have scored just 1 TD in the RZ, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. He was still tied for 18th among WRs, with 25 RZT, and he was involved in 12% of the team’s RZ plays. Boldin saw just 1 GL target in all of 2011, but that makes sense, considering the Ravens have a great all-around RB in Ray Rice, who could get them in the endzone from inside the five. Boldin’s red-zone numbers were pretty good, but we’re actually surprised he didn’t finish higher than his solid 18th in targets inside the 20. That’s because the main reason we’ve placed him on this list is the fact that we can remember at least 5-6 plays last year that were very close to being TDs, mostly passes to him in the endzone. Boldin may be on the back end of his career, but with no major additions this off-season, we’d expect to him to still be a TD threat, thanks to his size, physicality, and rapport with Flacco.

Steve Johnson (Buf) – Even with a nagging groin injury, Johnson continued to be the top option for the Bills in 2011. He was 8th among all WRs, with 19 RZT, and he was involved in 14% of the team’s RZ plays, which was tied for 16th most at the position. Johnson had only 7 TDs in 2011, but 6 of those came in the RZ. Johnson stayed in the mix, despite having two other prominent RZ targets on the team in WR David Nelson and TE Scott Chandler. With Fred Jackson back from injury and C.J. Spiller looking solid down the stretch, Buffalo certainly has a nice group of offensive skill players, which could dilute Johnson’s production somewhat. However, other than the occasional brain lapse, he’s proven to be pretty reliable and has a good rapport with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, so the hope is that the Bill offense continues to ascend and they simply score more TDs in 2012. Even if the status quo remains Johnson should have another solid year, as long as he’s relatively healthy.

Greg Little (Cle) – Little may have led all rookies in targets last season, but he saw just 8 of those inside the RZ, which explains why he had just 1 TD in that area. We can probably attribute that to terrible QB play, mainly from Colt McCoy, and an offense that was among the worst in the league, meaning they weren’t getting that many chance to even be near the goal line. Little’s issues with drops were well-documented and we feel it’s a problem he’ll be able to get over. Although he’s just a rookie, QB Brandon Weeden is an upgrade from McCoy in terms of throwing the football, and with a year under his belt, Little should better take advantage of his appealing size and skill set. RB Trent Richardson’s great all-around ability might cut into Little’s looks near the endzone, but the offense overall will also get a boost, so Little situation still looks a lot better than last year. Cleveland doesn’t really have any established talent in their receiving corps, so a nice player like Little, especially at 6’2”, should command the ball more and see his targets in the RZ rise this season.

Lance Moore (NO) – Moore has consistently produced about 8 FPG the last two seasons, scored 8 TDs a year, (mostly in the red zone), averaged about 12 yards per catch, and caught 72% of his targets. He’s missed time the last three years, playing 6, 15, and 14 games. He’s not exciting, and could miss a game when you need him. But he can go off with the occasional multi-TD game at any time. He’s not going to roll up large yardage totals in any week, but if you need a fill-in who could score, he’s your guy. If we throw out 2009, a year he played in only six games, Moore has actually scored 26 TDs the last three years in which he’s played 14 or more games, which averages out to his scoring a TD in every 1.7 games he plays, which is 8-9 TDs per year. Despite missing two games in 2011, Moore was still 17th in red-zone pass targets and 11th in goal-line pass targets. As the #3 option in this great passing game, 8-9 TDs seem like a lock if he plays at least 13-14 games.

David Nelson (Buf) – Nelson was virtually an unknown player in the fantasy world heading into last season, but he ended up finding his way onto fantasy rosters after a hot start to 2011. Teammate and fellow WR Steve Johnson may have led the team in RZT with 19, but Nelson wasn’t too far behind, tying for 18th among all WRs, with 15. Nelson was involved in only 11% of all of the team’s RZ plays, but scored all 5 of his TDs inside the 20. The one area Nelson trumped Johnson was target percentage at the GL, where Nelson had 29% to Johnson’s 24%. Nelson may not be considered a dominant player, but he’s solid and has great size at 6’5”, so we’d expect his activity in the RZ to continue, even on a team with a lot of good options on offense. That presence should give him decent fantasy value if you’re just looking for a TD threat to plug into your lineup.


Other obvious TD Vultures: Calvin Johnson, Marques Colston, Hakeem Nicks and Vincent Jackson

Watch List:

Brandon LaFell (Car) – The Cam Newton experience was certainly fun to watch last year and helped rejuvenate the career of WR Steve Smith. Unfortunately, for the rest of the Panther receiving corps, they seemed to get lost in the shuffle and probably had more than a few scoring opportunities taken away by Newton’s great running ability, which accounted for 14 TDs, 13 of which came in the RZ. History tells us Newton is unlikely to have another record-setting year rushing the football, but in his second season, we’d expect him to continue his development as a passer, and in turn, make everyone around him better. LaFell saw just 7 RZ targets last season, but turned two of them into scores, both of which came inside the five-yard line. The only other notable RZ threat could be TE Greg Olsen, but with good size at 6’2”, LaFell certainly has a chance to improve on the three times he found the endzone in 2011. We just hope that the Panthers don’t rely too much on Newton and a ground game that includes DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert to get them over the goal line.

Tight Ends

Jermichael Finley (GB) – Finley’s overall season was disappointing in 2011, but he remained productive in short yardage, where his size/speed combo proved

too much for most defenders to handle, with 8 TDs on his 17 red-zone targets, including 4 TDs on 6 goal-line targets (he scored 3 TDs in-tight in Week Three alone). He’s still a freak talent, and he’s still in an excellent offense. And especially with is draft stock falling a bit compared to the last two years, he’s looking like a solid value overall. The point is, he was still extremely successful in red-zone situations last year, despite the overall struggles. If he improves in other areas and maintains his solid short-yardage performance, he’s going to put up huge numbers with Aaron Rodgers.

Jermaine Gresham (Cin) – Our expectations have been pretty high for Gresham, and while he’s certainly had his moments, he hasn’t quite developed as quickly as we’d hoped. The Bengals didn’t have an abundance of skill in their receiving corps last season (other than A.J. Green), so it shouldn’t be surprised to find out that Gresham with tied for 11th among all TEs, with 14 RZT and scored 5 of his 6 TDs inside the 20. He tied Rob Gronkowski for 5th at the position, with 25% of his team’s RZT. The Bengals had a lot of problems picking up short yardage, which might explain why Gresham saw 4 targets at the GL and scored on three of them. The team is expecting more from Gresham, and based on the promise he’s shown, we expect Gresham to do more as well. Another year playing with QB Andy Dalton should improve the rapport between the two, but it always helps to be 6’5”, 260 pounds to provide your QB with a nice big target near the goal line. He’s clearly the #2 option in the red zone passing game behind Green.

Tony Gonzalez (Atl) – Gonzalez will be back for at least one more season, and despite being near the end of his career, he’s still among the better options at the position. Even with the addition of WR Julio Jones and the always-involved Roddy White, Gonzalez still had 21 RZT, ranking 2nd on the team to White’s 30 and 5th among all TEs. All 7 of his TDs came in the RZ, with 3 coming on 4 targets at the GL. He got 24% of the team’s targets in the RZ, which placed him 7th at the position. Atlanta has a reliable big back in Michael Turner to give the ball to in close proximity to the endzone, but Gonzalez has proven that even if he’s lost a step, he’s still a reliable player when the endzone is within striking distance. We can only hope the Falcons follow through on their thoughts of throwing the ball more in 2012 since it would theoretically give Gonzalez more chances. So far in camp, Gonzalez is pleased with his role in new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s new scheme, so we’d imagine that means plenty of action in the red zone.

Jason Witten (Dal) – Despite being a consistently productive PPR option and reliable fantasy performer since he entered the NFL, Witten has never actually been a big TD scorer. In fact, his career high of 9 in 2010 came mostly with Jon Kitna, not Tony Romo, throwing him the football. But the good news for Witten, who scored 5 TDs last season, is that he set a career-high with 7 targets inside the 5-yard line, and he tied his 2010 mark with 15 red-zone targets. Both marks were higher than his last two full seasons with Romo, 2008 and 2009, combined (13 red-zone and 3 goal-line targets over that span). That’s no guarantee things will continue into the future, but note that the Cowboys do have to replace Laurent Robinson’s 11 TDs, and at least Romo was looking for Witten in the red zone last season.

Brandon Pettigrew (Det) – We heard Lion coach Jim Schwartz say multiple times during the season in 2011 that Pettigrew functioned as an “extension of the run game.” Nowhere was that more evident than in the red zone, where Pettigrew’s 22 targets ranked him fourth among TEs. He scored 5 TDs on those targets, but curiously, only 1 of those targets, and no TDs, came inside the 5-yard line (in other words, it was Calvin Johnson time in-tight). But while Pettigrew will still defer to Calvin in short yardage, if the Lions don’t find more consistency from the run game in short-yardage situations again, he’ll have his shot to use his size to score TDs.

Marcedes Lewis (Jac) – Well, here’s an interesting addition to the article. When it came to scoring TDs last season, Lewis was nonexistent. Despite just as many red-zone targets (15) and twice as many goal-line targets (8) as in 2010, Lewis fell all the way to 0 TDs from 10 the year previous. At times, it just seemed he was completely incapable of scoring, whether he dropped a perfect pass or QB Blaine Gabbert missed him open in the endzone. Our guess is things won’t go nearly as bad this season. With Lewis’ size, he’s a tough guy to cover in the endzone, and we feel his natural talent level is closer to the 10 TDs he had the year before than the big 0 he put up in 2011. And with the Jags’ significant upgrade at receiver, there isn’t as much pressure on him to perform. With his plummeting draft stock, he is likely a good value for players in TD-heavy leagues.

Kyle Rudolph (Min) – Although the sample wasn’t big, Rudolph was effective in red-zone situations as a rookie, scoring on 3 of his 6 red-zone targets, including a TD on his only target inside the 5. Even with the addition of veteran John Carlson, the gifted Rudolph is expected to have an increased role in 2012, which will provide QB Christian Ponder with a reliable big target for short-yardage situations. And it’s entirely possible that the Vikings could well be without Adrian Peterson early in the year (or at least a limited Peterson), which could highlight their need for reliability in short yardage even more.

Greg Olsen (Car) – We expected Olsen to get more chances in the TE-friendly offense in Carolina after being misused in Chicago under OC Mike Martz. Even with the great season from Cam Newton, we were disappointed with the season Olsen had. He had 11 RZT (19th) with 3 of his 5 TDs coming inside the 20. Despite having to battle Newton, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart for looks near the GL, Olsen converted both of his GLT into scores. Hopefully, the departure of TE Jeremy Shockey – who didn’t have a lot of red-zone looks last year but did score 4 TDs – and what we hope to be another step in the development of Newton will help Olsen get more chances in 2012. The team has Newton and those RBs, plus WRs Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell, but when you really look at this situation, Olsen should be the #2 target in the red zone passing game, based on his size and experience. So while he basically falls short of expectations every year and may get overlooked from time to time, he certainly has a chance to score 6-8 TDs this year.

Scott Chandler (Buf) – Without a known commodity at TE in Buffalo last summer, we really weren’t sure what to expect out of the position for the Bills last year, so Chandler was a pleasant surprise and burst onto the scene with 4 TDs in the first three games of the season. He’d finish with 6 TDs (all in the RZ), but didn’t score after Week Eight. Even with prominent RZ targets like WRs Steve Johnson and David Nelson on the team, Chandler stayed involved, finishing tied for 16th among TEs with 19% of the team’s RZT. He had 13 RZT on the year, which put him in a tie for 14th at the position. Chandler isn’t much more than a huge body at 6’7”, 263 pounds, but that’s good enough to provide QB Ryan Fitzpatrick with a big target near the goal line. That’s probably not enough to consider him a fantasy starter, but still worth noting just in case you need to roll with him in a pinch. There are a lot of viable options here this year for Fitzpatrick, but it’s worth noting that Chandler seems to have a new air of confidence in training camp this year, and his sense of swagger is a good sign and could help him continue to find the endzone.

Joel Dreessen (Den) – The good news for fantasy players: Dreessen won’t be around to vulture scores from Owen Daniels anymore. The bad news: He’s in position to do the same to Jacob Tamme in Denver. He’s been a reliable option underneath and obviously in the red zone, as we saw last year, but he doesn’t have the speed to be considering a dangerous receiver. That could be enough for QB Peyton Manning to rely on him in-tight. And 8 red-zone TDs in just 15 RZ targets over the last two years with inferior QB play mean he might be the kind of player Manning makes into a useful fantasy player.

Kellen Davis (Chi) – Limited to mostly blocking duty, Davis was pretty much a non-factor for fantasy last season. However, while he had only 18/206 on 33 targets last season, Davis still managed to find the endzone five times, including four times in the red zone. He had just 7 RZT in all of 2011, but with a lack of talent in the receiving corps and Matt Forte struggling to pick up the tough short yardage, we saw Davis capitalize on the limited chances he got in an offense that didn’t value the use of TEs as receivers. With Mike Tice taking over the offense, look for Davis – who was going to leave as a free agent for a better opportunity this off-season but was talked out of it by Tice – to get more chances to be involved as a pass-catcher this year. Davis will provide QB Jay Cutler with a big target at 6’7”, 267 pounds and is looking to be more involved, which is why he decided to re-sign with the Bears. We don’t see a lot of competition at TE, outside of Evan Rodriguez, a raw rookie, so if someone is going to get looks near the endzone, Davis might be the guy to keep an eye on in 2012.

Other obvious TD Vultures: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, and Aaron Hernandez.

Watch List:

Dallas Clark (TB) – So far, he’s healthy in training camp for the Bucs, and if he stays healthy and quickly gets on the same page as QB Josh Freeman, the savvy veteran Clark could be an active target for Freeman in the red zone.

Owen Daniels (Hou) – We want to see a little more of Daniels in the preseason and exhibition season before forming a solid opinion of him, but we’ve certainly always liked him. The question is whether or not he’s slowed down due to his advancing age and numerous injuries. But with Joel Dreessen gone, there’s every reason to believe Daniels will be the #2 option in the passing game, so he has a chance to surprise with 6-7 TDs.

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