Wednesday, July 25, 2012

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #20 (Overvalued/Players to Avoid)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #20
Published, July 25, 2012
Copyright © 1995-2012
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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2012’s Overvalued & Players to Avoid

Published, 7/25/12

 

This article is always a slippery slope for a variety of reasons. For one, there comes a point at which almost any fantasy commodity is viable – if not a value – if he falls far enough. We’re also typically dealing with players we do like, but those who we think are going earlier in fantasy drafts than we’d like to see.

 

There will be players listed here this summer who wind up having good years, but without having access to the results, all we can do is call things the way we see them. This year, we’re even more about youth, versatility, and upside than ever, so you’ll find a lot of aging and one-dimensional players on this list. Some are overvalued, some are players to avoid altogether, and most are both.

 

This article will be updated throughout the preseason, but here’s what we’re thinking right now.

 

Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) – For the most part, Big Ben has been a reliable QB for most of his career, but he’s coming off what we’d call a disappointing 2011 season. Ben took a beating behind a questionable offensive line and frequently played through pain. Miraculously, he played in at least part of 15 games, despite a bad ankle injury at the end of the season. He completed 63.2% of his throws for 4077 yards, 21 TDs, and 14 INTs to rank 13th among QBs, with an average of 19.7 FPG. His 13th ranking makes him a low-end starter or a high-end backup, which was certainly below our expectations for him. His ADP is hovering around 93, meaning he’s usually the 13th QB off the board. That would probably be fair if you think he’ll be around the same numbers as last season, but we’re not so sure he’ll be able to rebound. He’s learning a new offense under new OC Todd Haley, which includes a lot of different terminology than in previous seasons under former OC Bruce Arians. That’s tough enough, but things will be even tougher, considering WR Mike Wallace hasn’t been with the team all off-season, since he’s been in a contract dispute. We don’t expect Big Ben to fall off a cliff, but the point here is that he doesn’t do much for us as an 8th-round pick because there are several players who will go later than Roethlisberger (possibly much later) who should be able to equal his production. Yes, the OL has been upgraded, which is good, but it’s still no lock it quickly gels and performs at a high level. At this point, we’re just not comfortable taking Roethlisberger in the spot at which he’s going off the board.

Matt Schaub (Hou) – Schaub’s rarely much more than a decent fantasy QB who, more often than not, has been a starter, despite not showing to be great in any facet of his game. Over the last few seasons, it looked like he was over the injury issues that plagued him early in his time with the Texans, but then he suffered a season-ending injury that limited him to just 10 games last year. He’s been fully cleared for training camp, but that doesn’t make us feel any better about him for 2012. He finished just 14th among QBs in FPG, and that was before the injury. He might have some motivation in a contract year, but with a shift in philosophy in the Texan offense, we don’t see him putting up the big numbers that made him a weekly fantasy starter at times in the recent past. This team is all about Arian Foster and the rushing attack, and we’ve seen that shift hurt Schaub’s rhythm at times. He’s basically a volume QB, and it’s hard to get volume when you have the best running game in the league and one of the best defenses in the league (remember when he had to play from behind all the time? That’s not happening now). He’s going off the board as just the 15th QB, which is fair. But with an ADP of about 107, that’s a 9th-round pick and comparable options will be available well after that. That’s just a little too high for a guy with not a lot of upside, who might be on the downside of his career.

 

Watch List:

 

·         Peyton Manning (Den) – We think he may be the most valuable player in the history of the sport, but with an ADP around 60, he does scare us a bit. He’ll probably be fine when it’s all said and done, but if he’s slow off the mark due to his extensive time off and new team, it may be too little, too late for those who invest a 5th-round pick on Manning.

 

Running Backs

 

Adrian Peterson (Min) – Peterson’s nasty knee injury in Week Sixteen of the 2011 season has raised huge red flags for his 2012 season. He tore both his ACL and MCL in his left knee, and Viking HC Leslie Frazier hinted at the beginning of July that Peterson could start training camp on the active/PUP list. Peterson can be activated at any time if he begins camp on the active/PUP, but if he remains there until the regular season, he’d be forced to miss the first six games. We’re staying away from Peterson for 2012 until we see him at training camp with pads on, with no issues. We’re scared to take him in the 2nd round right now, and that’s exactly where he looks to be going, with an ADP of 18.75. For what it’s worth, we’re not too concerned with his current resisting arrest charge after a confrontation in early July at a Houston nightclub. The whole incident looks to be a big misunderstanding between both parties, and Peterson has hired Roger Clemens’ high-profile lawyer Rusty Hardin to push for complete exoneration. The devastating knee injury is our concern, and it’s a huge worry at this point until we see him practicing without issues. We’d love to see Peterson return to his old form that made him one of the most exciting backs since he entered the league in 2007, but until we see him healthy and in Viking camp, we’re staying away from Peterson. We just don’t like using early picks on players we’re hoping will come through; we want to use them on players we’re extremely confident will come through.

 

Steven Jackson (Stl) – Jackson isn’t an easy call because he’s been fine the last couple of years, there’s no noticeable slippage to his game, and he’s far from grossly overvalued. While it seems like Jackson has been in the NFL forever, he’ll be just 29 this season. He came into the league at age 21, and he’s played since 2004. Jackson has remained durable the last three seasons, as he’s played in 46-of-48 games. He’s been consistently good throughout his career, with seven straight 1000-yard seasons, and Jackson is still performing as a solid #2 RB for fantasy. However, we think it’s probably best to pass on Jackson this year unless he slips to around the early 4th round, which may not happen for most. Most of the red flags aren’t Jackson’s fault and have little to do with his actual play. To put it simply: Jackson plays on a BAD team behind a BAD offensive line. While Jackson may be only 29 years old, he’s already carried the ball 2138 times in his career for 9093 yards. The Rams totally overhauled the organization when they hired HC Jeff Fisher and OC Brian Schottenheimer. Both Fisher and Schottenheimer have shown in the past that they like to run the football, but when they do pass, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered concerning that element of their offense. Again, we’re more about youth and upside, so we prefer to pass on Jackson with his ADP around 25 for RBs with more of that (youth, upside) than S-Jax, but that doesn’t mean we don’t expect him to be productive.

 

Michael Turner (Atl) – Turner is coming off a solid 2011 season that saw him finish with 301/1340/11 and a career-best receiving performance of 17/168 on 26 targets. He finished with 13.6 FPG, which tied him for 11th at the RB position. We didn’t champion Turner last year, and we aren’t going to do it again this year. Still, many think that Turner’s performance will fall of a cliff this year, but we just don’t see that happening. Turner actually improved from his 4.1 yards per attempt in 2010, to a 4.5 mark in 2011. We think Turner will be okay in 2012, but he’s just not our type of pick as we learned with volume backs with little upside. Falcon running back coach Gerald Brown hinted to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Turner’s workload will be reduced this season, with Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers expected to be more involved to cut down on Turner’s workload. Turner, who turned 30 years old, has averaged 20.1 carries per game during his four years with Atlanta, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons at San Diego. Turner has stayed relatively healthy, as he’s missed just five games, all in 2009 with an ankle injury. Turner doesn’t have much upside at this point in his career, but he does bring production. But again, as we know, he can be a pain in the rear because he doesn’t have a large margin for error. If it looks like Snelling and Rodgers are in line for significantly more playing time in training camp, we like Turner even less than we did coming into preseason. His ADP of around 33 isn’t terrible, but we need to see him fall into the 4th round at least to feel good about acquiring his services.

 

Frank Gore(SF) – Gore’s production tailed off significantly in the second half of 2011, starting with 6 carries for 0 yards in Week Ten against the Giants. The 49ers never admitted it, but Gore dealt with knee and ankle issues that limited him the rest of the season. He never topped 89 yards in a game the rest of the season, including playoffs. While he played 16 games for the first time since 2006, he clearly wasn’t healthy last season. Gore is one of the most talented running backs in the league when he’s healthy. We just don’t know if he can stay healthy for a full season at this point in his career. We’re also starting to wonder if his age (29), is starting to catch up with him. Gore finished 2011 with a disappointing 282/1211/8 and was 20th among RBs, with 11.3 FPG. Gore also totally collapsed last year in the passing game with career lows with 17/114/0 and a dismal 55% catch rate. The 49ers have made it clear that they’re bringing in as much offensive talent as they can this off-season. Gore is the starting tailback still, but talented youngster Kendall Hunter is in his second year, and the 49ers brought in veteran Brandon Jacobs, who could vulture some scores from Gore if Jacobs makes the team. San Francisco also drafted LaMichael James, who could fill a Darren Sproles-like role at some point. Gore is the best player out of the group, but the 49ers have three other options to keep him fresh and spread the playing time around. We’ve seen the level of talent at RB drop off earlier than in previous years’ drafts, but that doesn’t mean you should be reaching to grab Gore at his current ADP, which sits right around 40. We don’t think he’s overvalued at 40, but once again, we’re more about youth and upside this year, so Gore – whom we’ve loved for years – makes it on this list. 

Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) – Bradshaw is now the undisputed lead back for the Giants with the departure of Brandon Jacobs, but we’re still wary of spending too high a pick on him. Bradshaw’s biggest issue is his durability. He’s dealt with troublesome feet and ankles problems throughout his career, and a foot injury forced Bradshaw to miss four games, and it plagued him the rest of the season. Bradshaw is still young at 26, but he needs to show that he can stay healthy for an entire season. When he played, Bradshaw carried for 171/659/9 (3.9 YPC) and added 34/267/2 as a receiver, giving him 13.2 FPG, ranking him 14 among all RBs. He’s absolutely worth putting in your lineup when he’s healthy. Due to the loss of Jacobs, the Giants spent a 1st-round pick on David Wilson for insurance, and it looks like Wilson is the future at RB for the Giants. The Giants also likely selected Wilson because they want to be more explosive at RB, so there’s a chance this backfield morphs into a committee, assuming Wilson does what he needs to do to get on the field. Bottom line, if you’re drafting Bradshaw current ADP, which is about 33, you’re taking a risk. It’s a risk we’re not willing to take right now. If you do get Bradshaw, taking the talented Wilson several rounds later can negate some of the risk, at least.

Order now and check out 5 other RBs on the list 

Non-PPR Overvalued

Darren Sproles (NO) – Sproles made the most out of a somewhat limited role as a runner, with 87 carries for 603 yards and 2 TDs last season. Most of Sproles’ damage came in the passing game, where the Saints used him brilliantly. Sproles finished with 86 catches on 111 targets (77.5 % catch rate) for 710 yards and a remarkable 7 TDs. Even in a standard scoring league, Sproles finished 19th among RBs, with 11.6 FPG, and he was certainly one of the best values in all of fantasy football. Sproles still has plenty of value in 2012 PPR leagues. However, fantasy players have overvalued Sproles in non-PPR leagues, as evidenced by his ADP of 28.6. We find it hard to believe that Sproles will be able to duplicate his 7-TD receiving performance from 2011. His 7 TD catches were a huge key to his success in non-PPR leagues last season. A healthy Mark Ingram (who did open camp on PUP) also figures to get more opportunities this season, limiting his value in the running game. HC Sean Payton, who called plays most of the season, is suspended for the entire 2012 for his involvement with the bounty scandal. OC Pete Carmichael Jr. is still around to run the offense, but it’s hard to tell if he’ll use Sproles as creatively as Payton did in 2011.

 

Reggie Bush (Mia) – Bush got off to a slow start in 2011, but he found his home in the Dolphin offense in the second half of the season. The Miami organization is a bit of a mess, and Bush will have to acquaint himself with new coaches just as he found his rhythm in the offense last year. The Dolphins brought in former Packer OC Joe Philbin to be the head coach, and former Packer HC Mike Sherman will take over as the offensive coordinator. Bush said his role will be a little different this season. He expects to return to his hybrid role, with more snaps split out wide with fewer carries in-between the tackles. But fantasy owners in non-PPR leagues haven’t adjusted their draft boards for Bush’s hybrid role, as he currently owns a 48.5 ADP. Bush’s only true value comes in PPR leagues; otherwise, he’s being totally overvalued. The 2011 Dolphins used Bush much differently in the passing game than the Saints did in his first five seasons. Bush averaged fewer than 3 receptions per game last year, while he averaged about 5 catches per game with the Saints. Expect Bush to be less involved in the running game this year, and his numbers in the passing game should resemble what he did for the Saints.

 

Roy Helu (Was) – From a talent standpoint, we certainly believe Helu can be a productive fantasy option. He’s got good size and speed, plus he showed off his versatility as a reliable receiver out of the backfield in 2011. He dealt with some toe and knee injuries last season, but neither issue was considered major. Our problem is the total unpredictability of the Redskin backfield. Sure, Helu played in 15 games (5 starts) last season, but we never seemed to know just exactly what his role would be. From Weeks Twelve through Fifteen, he had 23+ carries, but hit double digits in just two other games all season. While he may be the best fit to start, it doesn’t mean he will, and even if he does, how long will that last? Tim Hightower re-signed to join a backfield that also includes Evan Royster (who averaged 4.9 yards a carry last year and is a good fit for their inside zone runs) and rookie Alfred Morris. We don’t see how you can justify Helu’s current ADP, which is about 64.5, when there’s just way too much uncertainty when it comes to the way Mike Shanahan feels about his backfield. He’ll praise a player during the week, and then barely use him on Sunday. We’ve learned not to trust Shanahan, and in turn, not to trust this backfield. We can see the Redskins using both Helu and Royster to start the season, and once Hightower is ready he could be the guy at the drop of a hat. Again we like Helu, but he has to present a little more value for us to take the plunge, at least for now he does.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Justin Blackmon (Jac) – We know how bad the Jaguar receivers were last season, but they appeared to make that deficiency a priority in the off-season with the signing of Laurent Robinson and the selection of Blackmon. Blackmon was drafted with the 5th-overall pick, but it remains to be seen if he’s actually going to be an elite receiver. He lacks vertical explosiveness and is more of a one-speed receiver with average size, and he can be a little stiff in his movement. His high draft spot seems to have fantasy players thinking he’s going to be as dangerous as others that have gone that high, like A.J. Green and Julio Jones, but that’s just not the case, at least not in 2012. That’s why we feel his ADP of 109 is a clear overvalue. The problem with Blackmon is that his brand-name recognition is causing him to be taken too high. He was a great college player and might be very good in the pros, but there are some concerns about his ability to gain separation consistently, especially as a rookie. Don’t forget, the QB situation in Jacksonville, whether it’s Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne, isn’t one we feel good about either. This offense is going in the right direction, but that doesn’t mean we expect to see significant improvement right away. Don’t let Blackmon’s 1st-round status in the NFL Draft dictate where you take him in your fantasy drafts.

Titus Young (Det) – Young was better than expected as a rookie and was part of the Lions’ high-powered passing game for just about all of the 2011 season. However, we were never really sure what to make of his role and still aren’t. He was the #3 WR behind Calvin Johnson and veteranNate Burleson, but he doesn’t play the slot. While all reports coming out of off-season workouts concerning Young have been great (at least on the field), it doesn’t give us any better idea of what role he’ll play in the offense, especially since he’s also worked out extensively as a return man. Burleson is on the downside of his career, but the team added a talented player in Ryan Broyles in this year’s draft. Broyles is coming off a torn ACL in November, but the team hopes he’ll be ready to go for training camp. Of course, this just makes things even more difficult when trying to determine Young’s role. We might make the argument that the numbers he put up last season were more a result of the team throwing so much, as opposed to his talent. The bottom line is that there’s too much uncertainty surrounding Young to take him at his current ADP of 95.5. He’s probably better drafted for depth rather than as your #3 WR.

Michael Floyd (Ari) – We’ve been begging for the Cardinals to bring someone in to be a viable #2 WR opposite Larry Fitzgerald since Anquan Boldin left for Baltimore. They may have found that player in Floyd, but it doesn’t mean it’ll happen this year. While many seem to believe it’s a lock that Floyd will start as a rookie, all indications are that Andre Roberts, not Floyd, will be in the lineup to begin the season. In fact, Floyd isn’t even expected to pass #3 WR Early Doucet on the depth chart, and he may be fourth among the WRs, at least to start the year. The team seems to be in no hurry with Floyd, which means he won’t be rushed into the starting lineup. Having said that, we feel his ADP of 120 is just a bit too high, especially since that could be a #3 WR or top backup on your squad. He has all the raw skills to be a very good player down the road, but he could use some more polish. We like the kid, but we would rather wait to grab him, since he’s not worth reaching for, considering his current spot on Arizona’s depth chart.

Order now and check out 5 other WRs on the list

 

Tight Ends

 

Brandon Pettigrew (Det) – We’re more than okay with Pettigrew being considered a solid fantasy starter heading into this season, but an ADP around 94 seems a little high. To put that in perspective, here are some other ADP numbers at TE: Tony Gonzalezis at 109, Jermaine Gresham, 120, and Brent Celek, 143. We have all three of those players ranked ahead of Pettigrew, but he’s the 10th TE going off the board. We don’t want to knock Pettigrew, since he’s been pretty reliable, despite being more of an all-around TE than the basketball-type athletes that continue to dominate the league. He’s certainly aided by a great QB in Matthew Stafford and plays in an offense that’s all about throwing the football. However, he’s not a player with a lot of upside and the team has lots of options around him, (including TE Tony Scheffler), plus the expected returns of RBs Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure, so he could be lost in the mix a little, since there aren’t enough footballs to go around. There’s no reason to reach for a guy like Pettigrew, who probably fits more into the role of a player you decide to wait on if you don’t want to take a TE early.

 

Watch List:

 

·         Fred Davis (Was) – If this offseason has taught us anything, it’s to be wary of players with off-the-field issues. Davis is one strike away from possibly being suspended for the entire season. That’s a major concern. We like him a lot, but between that issue, the fact that the Redskins brought in two new and viable wideouts, and the fact that our primary concern with his new QB is his ability to consistently making timing and anticipation throws in the short-to-intermediate area, we’re going to be cautious with Davis. At the slightest sign of trouble, we’ll upgrade (or downgrade) him to a full overvalue/avoid.

·         Jacob Tamme (Den) – We like Tamme and do feel he’s a player to target, but he sure as heck isn’t a value with an ADP in the low-90s, according to our numbers. That’s just a bit too much to pay for a guy who’s really been a part-time player and is heading to a new team with a QB who not only didn’t play on the team last year; he didn’t play football at all in 2011. The biggest issue we have with Tamme, however, is durability. He’s not a big guy, and it’s questionable if he can handle an expansive role for 16 games and stay on the field. Back in 2010 when he was thrust into the starting lineup, he got banged around quite a bit and seemed to be hanging on by a thread.

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