Friday, July 20, 2012

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #19 (Top Backups)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #19
Published, July 20, 2012
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2012's Top Backups

Published, 7/20/12

 

It’s all coming up Ben Tate.


In today’s specialized NFL that includes multiple RB, WR, and TE packages, it’s particularly hard to isolate those players who are clear backups and not simply complementary players. But last year, Tate was just that, and he was the star of this article last year, when he filled in admirably for an injured Arian Foster early in the 2011 season.

 

There will always be players on our top backups list who wind up doing diddly-squat because we are trying to isolate low-end players with some legit upside, but you have to remember that almost all of these players need some help to make an impact. But it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a clear understanding of the league’s top backup players. As we see year after year, players rise up their team’s depth charts during the season and help fantasy players.

 

As for our criteria for listing and ranking the following backups, we’re looking at a few factors, such as his starter’s injury history, the backup’s own ability to produce, his supporting cast, and also the possibility that the player in front of him on the depth chart has some non-injury issues.

 

Other players listed in this piece last year who made a positive fantasy impact thanks to injuries or other circumstances included Antonio Brown, Tim Tebow, Toby Gerhart, Isaac Redman, Denarius Moore, Dezmon Briscoe, David Nelson, Fred Davis, and Joel Dreessen.

 

Note: For brevity’s sake, we tried to ignore players who are projected to contribute in a rotational role or are currently given a decent shot of winning a starting job in camp.

 

Quarterbacks

 

John Skelton (Ari) – Skelton may not be a fair entry because he might not be the “clear” backup on this team, but he definitely stands out as one of the best QBs out there who isn’t currently a definite starter. We lean toward Kevin Kolb getting the starting nod because he’s the one who signed a big contract after being traded to the Cardinals last season. Of course, it didn’t turn out too well for him, as he battled foot and concussion issues, which opened the door for Skelton. Skelton would start in seven of his eight appearances last year, completing 151/275 passes (54.9%) for 1913 yards, with 11 TDs and 14 INTs. While he might have made more “mistakes” than Kolb, he also took more risks that paid off. As a result, he averaged 19.1 FPG, 17th at the QB position, making him a decent fantasy backup when he was in the lineup. Based on everything we saw last year, it’s fair to say that the Cardinals might have been better off finding a stop-gap solution last year and continuing to develop Skelton. That’s because Kolb may not get much better than what he’s been, which isn’t very good. Skelton is erratic, but he hangs firm in the pocket, and he makes some really good throws. He’s still rough around the edges and needs to learn to read coverages better, but he was pretty impressive at times, and he’s shown poise. Physically, he has the tools – good size, a big arm, and athleticism – to be a quality player. When you consider our questions about just how good Kolb is and his injury history (especially the concussion), it makes sense to consider Skelton one of the top backup options and certainly someone who could see significant time in 2012.

 

Tim Tebow (NYJ) – While the Jets have remained firm in their stance that Tebow will be the primary backup to Mark Sanchez, it seems as if everyone believes it’s only a matter of time before Tebow starts. That’s because Sanchez hasn’t progressed to the level you’d expect him to be at entering his fourth season. The “Tebow Factor” is above and beyond what he does on the field, but the Jets call the move to get him a “football decision.” Tebow has less than a year of starting experience, and he he’s yet to become a reliable QB, but he’s obviously won games. Like many young QBs, Tebow occasionally looked comfortable, and he occasionally looked lost. As Tebow showed in the playoffs against the Steelers, he can make strong individual plays, and if he can make the proper reads and accurate throws against man coverage, he’s a tough leader to beat. But we still have significant doubts about Tebow’s future as a passer, and ultimately, he’ll have to prove he can play in the pocket consistently to assuage those concerns. After taking over the starting job from Kyle Orton last season, Tebow led the 1-4 Broncos to the playoffs, with a 7-4 record in his 11 starts. And Tebow did most of his winning while putting up consistent, if not very good, fantasy numbers. Starting in Week Five, Tebow put up 17.6 FP against the Chargers in one half (in a near comeback victory), and he averaged 19.8 FPG, which ranked him a very solid 14th at his position over that span. On the year, Tebow completed only 126/272 passes (46.3%) for 1729 yards, with 12 TDs and 7 INTs, so he’s clearly still very rough around the edges as a passer. However, he also had 666 yards and 6 TDs on 120 carries, which is why the Jets plan to use him in certain packages even with Sanchez as the starter. Of course, if Tebow does end up taking over for Sanchez, his running ability will be what you’ll need to rely on if you want to consider him a fantasy option. Sanchez is the guy and revealed this off-season that he was injured for parts of 2012, but it’s a new coordinator in Tony Sparano, so both players are starting from scratch in that regard. And it’s worth noting that Sparano is not a coach who loves to run the ball (good for both players), but he also did a lot of experimentation with the Wildcat in Miami.

 

Kyle Orton (Dal) – In a bit of a surprising move, Orton ended up signing with the Cowboys to be the primary backup to Tony Romo - with the understanding that there would be no competition between the two for the starting job. That’s a departure from the talk of the Chiefs bringing him back to battle with Matt Cassel for the starting job after Orton did an admirable job when Cassel was sidelined last season. The 29-year-old Orton gives the Cowboys possibly the top backup in the league, with lots of starting experience from his time with the Bears, Broncos, and Chiefs. Last season, Orton opened the season ahead of Tim Tebow as the starter in Denver, and in the first four games, he threw for 945 yards, with 8 TDs and 6 INTs to average a 15th-most 20.2 FPG over that span. But Tebow would usurp the job from Orton in Week Five, and Orton ended up in Kansas City after the Broncos cut him. A finger injury kept him off the field for the Chiefs before he started the last three games of the season, when he would complete 61.5% of his passes for 779 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs for underwhelming 14.2 FPG. While Romo isn’t expected to lose his job anytime soon, he probably has more pressure on him than ever before heading into 2012. If the Cowboys need to turn to Orton, we know what he can and can’t do. He’s always been just a guy, and there’s nothing special about him at all, yet he’s a professional QB who’s solid enough to run an offense when he’s not asked to do too much. We wouldn’t categorize him as a game manager, but as long as he can avoid mistakes and make good decisions, he can definitely win some games and put up solid numbers. We’d have to think about him as a possible starting fantasy option, considering how much talent Dallas has on the offensive side of the ball (remember Jon Kitna two years ago). When you take into account his starting experience and decent success in the league, Orton is about as good an option as you can get as a backup.

 

Chad Henne (Jac) – We’re putting Henne on this list with the assumption that Blaine Gabbert will hang onto the starting job, despite an abysmal rookie season. The Jaguars didn’t really have a decent veteran option behind Gabbert, so they decided to sign Henne after his disappointing tenure in Miami came to an end. Henne began last season as the starter in Miami, but he suffered a shoulder injury to his non-throwing arm just four games into 2011 that landed him on the IR. In four inconsistent seasons, Henne started in 31 of 36 appearances, completing 60.7% of his passes for 7114 yards, 31 TDs, and 37 INTs. Henne’s never been able to put together consistent performances and makes too many poor decisions. He’s been inconsistent and erratic for most of his career, struggling with poor decisions and making them worse with poor throws on top of them. Henne rarely looks confident in the pocket, and a lack of confidence plus poor decision-making and erratic throwing is a recipe for disaster at quarterback. However, the Jaguars don’t seem to have the utmost confidence in Gabbert after a very shaky rookie season, so it wouldn’t surprise us to see Henne at some point in 2012, even if Gabbert beats him out for the starting job. The good news for Henne is that if he does play, he’ll have an improved receiving corps with the signing of WR Laurent Robinson and the selection of WR Justin Blackmon in this year’s draft.

 

T.J. Yates (Hou) – After starting last season buried on the Texans’ depth chart, Yates ended up taking over the starting job when the team lost both Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart in back-to-back weeks. The once third-string rookie played in six games and finished the regular season going 82/134 (61.2%) for 949 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs, which put him at 10.9 FPG. He would start and win against the Bengals in the Wild Card Round but lost to the Ravens in the Divisional Round. While Schaub has been cleared for training camp after getting over his foot injury, it’s tough not to ignore his injury history in his time with the Texans. The scouting report on Yates entering the league was that he was poised in the pocket, displayed good awareness, and showed terrific field vision. While that didn’t all translate to the NFL level, the game didn’t seem too big for him until the loss against the Ravens, and the Texans surprisingly didn’t change their offense much when he was in there, which is a good sign. On the downside, arm strength is definitely an issue that was highlighted more at the NFL level, especially when he needed to put throws into tight spots. Yates is definitely a step down from Schaub, but with the experience he does have and skilled players around him (if WR Andre Johnson is healthy), you could definitely do worse.

 

Joe Webb (Min) – The Vikings should have their QB of the future in Christian Ponder, but Webb remains an intriguing part of their team and someone who has turned heads at times with his great running ability, which as we know, can significantly raise fantasy values. After the Vikings cut Donovan McNabb last year and promoted Ponder to the starting job, Webb was not only moved up to #2 on the depth chart, but he also saw time in the “Blazer” package (a callback to Webb’s days at UAB), which was the team’s own spin on the Wildcat. He appeared in 11 games, but he didn’t make much of an impact until Week Fourteen, when he relieved an injured Ponder and finished the season 34/63 for 376 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs, while adding 154 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground to come in at 7.3 FPG. The limitations during Webb’s short career have been obvious. He has a big arm, but he has been completely startled by any semblance of pressure, and he, too, often takes off running. Webb is incredibly raw, and it was injuries alone that forced him under center over the first two years of his career. While Webb has enough raw talent between his solid arm and scrambling ability to be serviceable for fantasy, we’d only expect him to see significant action if Ponder were to go down again. However, because of his dangerous legs, it would make Webb an intriguing fantasy option. If he starts, he will run, and he will produce surprising totals more often than not.

 

Brian Hoyer (NE) – Not surprisingly, Hoyer hasn’t made a start since entering the league in 2009. He’s appeared in 13 games, going 27.43 for 286 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. While the team did select Ryan Mallett last year, Hoyer, who signed his RFA tender for 2012, is expected to remain the backup to Tom Brady for at least one more season. The team obviously has some confidence in Hoyer, as he’s been the backup without anyone else on the depth chart in 2009-2010. Hoyer has a good enough arm to play at this level and is known as a good decision-maker with the ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Obviously, Hoyer would be a step down from Brady if he were to play, but with his knowledge of the offense and a plethora of weapons at his disposal, he would be an interesting option to look to if he is pressed into duty. We think he could be better than Matt Cassel, who exceled and put up good numbers in this system a few years ago subbing for Brady.

 

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Running Backs

 

Note: Keep in mind we’re not including any players currently tangled in a position battle, and we’re also (generally) not including complementary players who have active roles in conjunction with a team’s starter.

 

Ben Tate (Hou) – Tate is a little bit on the fringe of this article because we expect him to get his share of carries to keep Arian Foster fresh, as he did last year. But note how much he’s being valued as a handcuff: He’s being drafted ahead of the likes of Willis McGahee and Michael Bush, according to our latest ADP data. That’s a function of Foster owners protecting their investment, but also due to the fact that fantasy players recognizing that Tate was a fantastic option whenever he got the chance to step on the field, in general. In eight separate games in 2011, Tate had double-digit carries, and he rushed for 100 yards on four separate occasions, gaining 97 on a fifth. Clearly, he was capable of not only holding down the fort with Foster out, but he was putting up big numbers himself. The questions for Foster owners are as follows: Is Tate going too early in drafts to make handcuffing him worthwhile? Is #3 RB Justin Forsett, a better receiver than Tate, a good enough compromise in the late rounds to make reaching for Tate less imperative? Based on his performance last season and his skill set, which fits the Texans’ zone running scheme perfectly, Tate is clearly the “top backup” in this article, and his ADP (around the 8th-9th round) is backing up that fact.

 

Toby Gerhart (Min) – Our criticisms of Gerhart have been well-documented since he entered the league in 2010. He’s a one-speed player who runs like a defensive lineman, but he’s tough and he’ll invite contact, and his hands are good enough to make him more than adequate as a receiver. To put it another way, he’s an old-time FB who gets by on running hard and with power. In other words, he’s no Adrian Peterson(He’s more Mike Alsott, and, yes, we had to go white-on-white there for comparison sake). But the thing is that he’s shown the ability to put up numbers when given volume as a runner and receiver, and that makes him an excellent candidate for this article. He was also more decisive last year, which is a huge key for a guy who doesn’t move that well. From Week Twelve through the end of the season, when Gerhart did most of his work filling in for the injured Peterson, he got enough volume to rank 13th among all RBs, with 13.0 FPG. In other words, he might have been among the “truest” of RB handcuffs, if we’re using the typical definition of the word. He saw double-digit carries in five of the Vikings’ final six games, so they’re willing to go to him when Peterson is hurt. As of right now, Peterson’s status for Week One as he recovers from a torn ACL is up in the air, and Gerhart said his partially torn MCL from last season is 100% healed without surgery. Gerhart’s ADP of 130.8 puts him squarely in the 11th round of 12-team leagues, which seems totally fair at this point, although owners who gamble on Peterson early might want to reach higher for his handcuff.

 

Ryan Williams (Ari) – At this point, it’s pretty hard to categorize Williams for the purpose of this article because the Cardinals clearly drafted him in the 2nd round last season to contribute in a significant way, not just to back up Beanie Wells. But a torn patellar tendon in August of last year ended Williams’ rookie campaign before it got off the ground, so now he has to prove healthy before we can project a significant role. Wells was pretty good when he played last year, but due mostly to injuries he was inconsistent, so durability questions remain with him as well. If he’s recovered from off-season knee surgery, Wells will retain his starting job, but it helps Williams’ chances that Wells’ recovering has been slow, which does nothing to help his case to continue to play over Williams. We’re told Williams could get a chance to unseat Wells, and the Cardinals have been really happy with Williams’ recovery and his performance in minicamps, as Pro Football Weekly reports. At this point, we feel as if Williams has had some bad luck with injuries, and Wells just hasn’t proven he can stay on the field. That could make Williams a really good pick around the 10th round, which is where his current ADP has him landing in a 12-teamer. That’s a fairly high price to pay for a backup with injury concerns, but in Williams’ case it makes sense because he has the tools and skills to not only be a good NFL back; he could be very, very good.

 

Robert Turbin (Sea) – If you want to know why we love the idea of Turbin as a handcuff to Marshawn Lynch, look no further than our pre-draft reports, when we compared Turbin to – you guessed it – his new teammate. Turbin definitely isn’t going to be a homerun hitter in the NFL, though, as he doesn’t have the second gear to make big plays. He has solid quickness, though, and he gets a lot of momentum going when moving forward. Physically, Turbin is an impressive back who has the frame to take punishment in the NFL as a power runner. He runs hard, and he’s also a willing blocker, so he could get on the field early in his NFL career. So in summation, he has a lot of similarities to Lynch. Coach Pete Carroll – who is all about power running with one lead back – has praised Turbin’s ability to catch the football, according to the Seahawks’ official website, and Carroll thinks Turbin projects as a strong pass protector, as well. That’s all great news as he looks to lock down the #2 RB job ahead of Leon Washington. Obviously, Turbin has been bumped up this list due to Lynch’s recent DUI arrest. Although Lynch’s camp has said they don’t expect a suspension to come down, it’s certainly possible that we’re looking at 2-4 games for Lynch. Turbin’s skillset is similar enough to Lynch’s, so if Marshawn is out, Turbin is probably the guy unless they sign a veteran like Cedric Benson.

 

Kendall Hunter (SF) – Hunter is in a really interesting position here because he’s one of four RBs in San Francisco who has a legitimate shot to make an impact. But for the purposes of this article, his role as Frank Gore’s true backup might be what separates him from Brandon Jacobs (more of a power back who might not even make the team) and LaMichael James (more of a moveable chess piece/scat back). If Gore goes down (and that’s certainly not a risky bet to make), Hunter could be the main beneficiary for touches, as our friend Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area recently told us. He’s not a big guy (5’7”, 199) and lacks strength and bulk, but he is a tough, physical runner with shiftiness and burst, so he’s not necessarily an outside scat back. In ways, he reminds us of Ahmad Bradshaw and Maurice Jones-Drew, two players who have become lead backs despite a smaller stature. His balanced-skill set makes him a solid bet to see a major increase in touches if Gore gets hurt again, so he’s absolutely a viable late-round pick, especially for Gore owners.

 

Mike Goodson (Oak) – There are rumors connecting the Raiders and free agent tailback Cedric Benson, but for now, Goodson is the #1 handcuff behind oft-injured superstar Darren McFadden (with McFadden attending a football camp in early June, Goodson took the #1 reps in OTAs, according to the Oakland Tribune). In general, we think Goodson is a pretty complete player – he’s very quick, he can make people miss, but he also sets up his blockers well and is a patient runner. In 2010, Goodson proved he can handle a workload over a short period of time if need be (he had back-to-back 20-carry, 100-yard games in Weeks Ten and Eleven), and he proved he can perform in an ancillary role when a bigger back is handling things. He fell out of favor in the deep Carolina backfield last year, and he later landed on IR with a hamstring injury, but it’s that 2010 performance in a handcuff role that makes him a very intriguing prospect for McFadden owners in late rounds – given the Raiders don’t add someone like Benson to the fold. Keep in mind McFadden has misses multiple games in each of his four NFL seasons. As for Taiwan Jones, we love his upside, but we’re projecting him to stick as a satellite player here, since that’s his ideal role. So he could be good for 7-10 touches per game, regardless of who’s starting.

 

Alex Green (GB) – Because the Packers haven’t had a truly gifted back since Ahman Green left town, we were pretty intrigued by Green’s arrival as a rookie last year, especially since he played in a pass-heavy spread offense at Hawaii. Obviously, a torn ACL sidelined him before he could get his rookie season off the ground, but the good news is he suffered the injury early enough that he has already positioned himself for a full return by training camp, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. That makes him a very intriguing option late in drafts. We still view the plodding James Starks as the Packers’ starting RB, but it’s no secret that Starks isn’t a special talent and has his own extensive injury problems to worry about. Green’s a bigger back who ran an impressive 40-yard dash time of 4.46 seconds, and he fits in the NFL as a one-cut, downhill runner with some power and short-area burst, and he projects as a decent to good receiver. Ultimately, between the offensive approach here and his slow-but-steady return from his knee injury, expectations have to be somewhat limited with Green. But his ADP suggests he’s only a 15th-round pick in most leagues, and that is potentially an incredible value. Expect that to move up once the training camp hype wagon gets moving, so keep an eye on Green. It’s not unrealistic to say Green could get a shot to be their “lead back” at some point. That still may not result in a lot of carries, but keep in mind the Packers likely drafted him because he was extremely productive in college in a pass-happy offense.

 

Delone Carter (Ind) – Don’t get us wrong; behind a patchwork offensive line on a horrendous team, Carter was hardly impressive as a rookie last year. Outside of a 10-carry, 89-yard, 1-TD performance in Week Six, Carter never topped 46 rushing yards the rest of the season, and he had fewer than 20 rushing yards eight times, including in seven of the final eight games of the season. But we do still see enough potential and uncertainty surrounding this Colt backfield to lead us to believe Carter is worth another look in 2012. Not only is starter Donald Brown hard to rely on, but he’s also not a very big or physical back, and new head coach Chuck Pagano wants to be more physical with his running game (the Colts have made a concerted effort to beef up the offensive line, a big-time shift from the quicker, more athletic linemen they’ve had in recent years). Of course, pass-happy coach Bruce Arians is running the offense, but Brown isn’t great in pass-pro, so he’s no lock to be the guy all year. Carter’s a tough runner who runs low to the ground and has a compact build, and he can be successful on the inside because of his balance, vision, and ability to burst through the hole. If Brown struggles and rookie Vick Ballard isn’t ready to handle a workload yet, neither of which is difficult to envision, Carter could be a worthwhile late pickup or a guy to watch on the Waiver Wire early. We did see a few signs – like a tiny bit of wiggle in him – that he could surprise if given some decent volume and if he stays on the field while limiting his ball-security issues.

 

Rashad Jennings (Jac) – There are multiple reasons Jennings is listed in this article, none more important than the fact that star RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been holding out of mandatory practices for a new contract. But on top of that, Jennings has been productive in the past, and the Jags have no real threat to him as MJD’s top backup. In 2011, Jennings suffered a knee injury during the preseason, and he landed on IR before the season even kicked off. While he didn’t record any stats, his “impact” was felt behind MJD, as the Jags had absolutely no one they could count on to give him a breather. No doubt, Jennings’ 682 yards from scrimmage on 110 touches from 2010 were missed. The best news so far is that he didn’t require off-season surgery on that knee injury, he’s 100%, and he’s coming cheaply in drafts as a handcuff to a workhorse back who also happens to be unhappy with his contract situation. Speaking of MJD, we spent the afternoon with him on 7/19, and it’s obvious to us that Jennings is the guy to have here.

 

Jason Snelling (Atl) – We like Snelling and he came through with Michael Turner injured in 2009, but recently he’s been kind of a forgotten man in the Falcon offense, carrying just 44 times for 151 yards and 0 TDs (3.4 YPC) and grabbing 26/179/1 on 33 targets, which put him at just 2.6 FPG for 2011. And remember that Snelling’s best game came in Week Seventeen with 9/50 rushing, when the Falcons were able to rest starters because they blew the doors off the hapless Bucs early in the game. In other words, Snelling was a handcuff who didn’t get handcuff opportunities (which is the risk of a handcuff, we suppose). But even though we predict a big increase in snaps for second-year back Jacquizz Rodgers in what the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is calling a screen-based offense under new coordinator Dirk Koetter, Snelling still has the skillset to be considered Turner’s primary backup. He’s powerful enough to break tackles, although he does play a little smaller than his size – his extra burst helps to make up for what he might lack as a bruiser. He’s also a better receiver than Turner, which helps for fantasy. And most important, he’s cheap in drafts and auctions.

  

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Wide Receivers

 

Note: We’re not including any players currently embroiled in a position battle as well as active #3/slot receivers, in most cases.

 

Jacoby Ford (Oak) – Ford has flashed big-play ability in the past, and he’s blessed with elite talent, but he’s has struggled to get on – and stay on – the field. After a promising rookie season, Ford played in just eight games in 2011. His only performance of note last season came against the Broncos in Week Nine when he posted 5/105/1. Fortunately, the hamstring and foot issues that nagged him in 2011 were reportedly 100% healed in April. But Ford is part of a talented young receiving corps in Oakland, and he currently sits behind Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey on the depth chart entering training camp. Moore has had his own durability issues and Ford would be next in line to take his spot in the lineup, and we know that DHB has had problems staying out of the doghouse in his career. As such, Ford is a great late-round flyer if you’re looking to swing for the fences toward the end of your draft. We’re so impressed with him that we think he could be a top-20 receiver if he played all 16 games and was targeted frequently.

 

Randall Cobb (GB) – Cobb had one of the more impressive opening acts to his rookie season last year with his 108-yard kick return TD and a 32-yard TD catch, all on national TV in the NFL season opener. Cobb was much more irrelevant the rest of the 2011 season, as the sixth option at WR in a loaded passing game. Don’t be surprised if the Packers try to get the ball in his hands a bit more in 2012. He appears to have future in the slot for the Packers (especially with Donald Driver approaching his 60th birthday), but it will probably take an injury for him to see significantly more snaps. He still holds a great deal of value in any league that rewards return production. Cobb finished 2nd in the league in kick return average (27.7 yards per return) and 7th in punt return average (11.3). He’s emerging as a bit of an “Internet Icon,” which we get, but we’re not truly buying into that. He’ll be at best the fourth option in the passing game – and he’ll split that role with Driver and James Jones. An injury or two, however, would help him, for sure.

 

Rueben Randle (NYG) – Randle was a first-round talent who fell to the second round of the 2012 Draft. He failed to put up huge numbers (50/904/8) as a junior at LSU, but the Tigers’ passing offense struggled mightily at times. Randle is a big receiver at 6’3”, 210 pounds, and he’s drawn comparisons to his new teammate Hakeem Nicks. Giant OC Kevin Gilbride said in June that Randle is still trying to figure out the pro game, so we’ll have to see how much that holds him back once training camp rolls around. Nicks is out of his walking boot and running again after he underwent foot surgery this spring, but if Nicks struggles at all with his foot injury in training camp, Randle will likely step into his spot. If you draft Nicks, it’s not a bad idea to handcuff him with Randle if you have the roster spot. In fact, if you have roster space, it’s a good idea.

 

Alshon Jeffery (Chi) – Jeffery likely won’t be a Week One starter, but he could eventually win a starting spot alongside #1 WR Brandon Marshall. The Bears would love to see Jeffery step up and win the job, as Devin Hester is currently listed as a starter, but as we know he’s a limited receiver. Jeffery was a polarizing prospect out of South Carolina after a dominant 2010 campaign (88/1517/9) that earned him All-America honors. He then had an uneven season in 2011 (49/762/8) that saw his production drop significantly. Jeffery’s struggled with weight and conditioning problems, but if he can get them under control he has excellent size (6’3”) and elite ball skills that project well to the next level. The Bears will look to run the ball plenty with RBs Matt Forte and Michael Bush, but they’re looking to be a more balanced offense for QB Jay Cutler with a much better corps of receivers. He’s been fine thus far in Chicago, and there’s little evidence that he won’t be a factor this year. It’s just a question of how much of a factor.

 

Marcus Easley (Buf) – Easley is entering his third NFL season, but he has yet to play one regular season snap. He missed his rookie campaign with a knee injury, and the Bills placed him on the IR last season with a heart ailment. Easley, a big receiver with athleticism, was cleared to return to the field, and HC Chan Gailey said he looked healthy during OTAs. Easley has the chance to win the #2 spot after Steve Johnson, but he needs to stay healthy. Even if Easley doesn’t win the job, the Bills spread offense should provide plenty of opportunities for Easley to get on the field. Easley has yet to take the field in the regular season, but he was coming on like gangbusters last preseason, and he’s now in his third year with the team, so he’s familiar with the system. He’s a real wild card, and he should be on a list of potential deep sleepers.

 

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Tight Ends

 

Note: We’re not including any players currently embroiled in a position battle or any players expected to have a significant role in two-TE formations.

 

Rob Housler (Ari) – Housler is one of our favorite under-the-radar TE prospects, and it’s possible that he could start to contribute as early as this season in a significant way. But for right now (and the key term is “right now”), he’s still a reserve behind veteran Todd Heap. That might not last long, as the Arizona Republic reports the Cardinals are planning to feature the TE much more in the passing game in 2012. Given Heap’s injury history and age, we can make a reasonable conclusion that means Housler – who saw a ton of reps in off-season workouts – is being groomed for a larger role. In fact, we recently spoke with Darren Urban of the team’s official website, and when we asked him about Housler, he told us he’s his pick for the Cardinals’ offensive break-out player this year. He’s a worthwhile pick in a deeper league, and at the least he’s absolutely someone to watch on the Waiver Wire.

 

Julius Thomas (Den) – Thomas is in this article because we absolutely love his ability, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a guarantee for snaps in 2012. Really, the Broncos are telling you that they think Thomas is a little behind, development-wise because they added both Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen this off-season, giving QB Peyton Manning two nice targets at the position. But we do know Tamme has an injury history, and if the Broncos build an offense with a lot of two-TE sets, Thomas could be next in line for reps. He just has to prove he’s healthy – Thomas was getting some nice reviews for his work in training camp as a rookie, but an ankle sprain suffered in Week Two kept him out until Week Eight and ended up costing him more time as he tried to play through it. He ended up with a single catch for 5 yards in his four games and would undergo surgery in April to repair ligament damage. Thomas is an unrefined athlete who flashes impeccable receiving skills, but he’s far from a finished product, and his development has already been hindered. But if he gets an opportunity, he has the right QB with whom to shine.

 

Delanie Walker (SF) – Walker is one of the strangest TEs in the NFL – he’s short, he’s returned kicks (seriously), and he’s not a great blocker. But while he’s barely 6’0”, Walker makes up for it with quickness and downfield speed. He’s a quick, but powerful player, who can break tackles and catch anything that gets near him. In other words, he’s a very nice #2 TE behind a stud like Vernon Davis, and although he features as parts of two-TE sets, his fantasy value could blow up if Davis goes down with an injury. Unfortunately for him, we think that will be the extent of his fantasy value, and it’s worth noting that he’s had injury problems himself (he missed most of the off-season with a left knee problem). Walker was quietly a key cog in their offense in 2011, and they frequently moved him around to create favorable matchups, with good results. But with three very viable wideouts added to the mix this year, what’s left for Walker? Not much, we’d suspect, unless Davis goes down. But if he does, Walker will be a viable Waiver Wire guy.

 

David Thomas (NO) – Thomas had multiple concussion problems and only 5 catches last season after being a solid contributor for two years in a row in 2009 and 2010, but that’s what happens when he goes from rotating with Jeremy Shockey to backing up Jimmy Graham. So really, his inclusion in this article is a no-brainer. He caught 65 passes between 2009 and 2010, and QB Drew Brees showed a willingness to throw Thomas the football in the red zone, which could lead to TDs. We’re not saying Thomas is anywhere close to Graham physically, but he’d certainly be an option for targets if Graham were to go down. He’s also recovered from his concussion issues, a good sign as we head into training camp.

 

Michael Egnew (Mia) – Egnew will enter training camp as the backup to Anthony Fasano (the role of H-back/FB/TE Charles Clay is a little uncertain), but there’s no doubt he could find his way onto the field if he impresses coaches in camp. Let’s be frank: The Dolphins stink. And as solid as Fasano is, his upside is basically nil at this point, and Egnew’s athleticism jumps off the page. Egnew has size at 6’5”, 252 pounds, but he spent much of his time at Missouri split out wide and in the slot. He struggles as blocker (although he’s working on it), and instead he fits the mold as the Aaron Hernandez-like TE. In Egnew, perhaps new HC Joe Philbin hopes that he has another Jermichael Finley on his hands. Obviously, that’s a long shot, and Egnew certainly isn’t the type of elite physical talent that Finley is. But he was productive in college with the speed to get downfield, and he has good ball skills. In fact, the Palm Beach Post recently opined that Egnew will be a “significant” part of the offense in 2012. If Egnew can build chemistry with QB Ryan Tannehill, he’s a very interesting prospect for the future.

 

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