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OFF-SEASON REPORT #5
Published Online, March 20, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #5: Post-Free Agency Stock Watch - 3/20

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Player Movement Tracker - 3/20
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 3/20
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 3/19
Depth Charts - 3/18
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Preview - 2/2
SOS Adjusted RB Non-PPR Scores 2014 - 1/29
SOS Adjusted QB Scores for 2014 - 1/22

UP NEXT:

2015 Player Movement Tracker - We're still tracking all the moves and will continually update each day as free agency continues
Off-Season Report #6: Pre-Draft Rookie Report (Next week)

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Post-Free Agency Stock Watch

by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 3/20/15

If nothing else, the current NFL has made the offseason and playing in a keeper or dynasty league a lot more interesting than it was even five or so years ago. Not only has free agency been busier than ever this year, but we’re still seeing a ton of coaching changes each offseason. And new for 2015, NFL teams are trading players – superstars included – a lot more frequently than we’re used to.

As I usually explain to people when I discuss my job, the biggest challenge is that we have to almost completely reshuffle the deck every year, since we can count on myriad changes each offseason that greatly alter the fantasy landscape. The first wave of change comes when we see all the coaching changes, which is something we cover each off-season. The draft is obviously huge, but with free agency we get our first opportunity to tangibly realize shifting player values based on all the moves that have gone down, and that’s what this report is all about. You’ll find there are still plenty of “we’ll see” situations, but there are more players this year who we can already and unequivocally say saw their values adjusted in these past 10 days or so.

Here’s what I got…

Note: I will be going in and adjusting these writeups when needed based on other moves over the next few weeks.

Upgrades

Russell Wilson (QB, Sea) – For two years, Seattle has been trying to acquire a high-impact player at TE, and they finally got their guy in Jimmy Graham. Over the past two seasons, no TE has more catches, yards, or TDs than Graham (of course, Rob Gronkowski has missed 10 games over that span). Graham isn’t a good blocker, has had several lingering injuries that have slowed him down, notably a serious shoulder injury last year, and he also had a contentious contract negotiation with the Saints last summer. All of those negatives likely prompted the trade, so it’s not a slam-dunk for Seattle, especially since they had to give up the leader of their OL in Max Unger to get Graham. But still, you’re talking about one of the two or three best red-zone threats in the league – Graham has 9 targets from the 1-yard line in his career and scored 8 TDs on them – and the Seahawks haven’t had a great red-zone option in Wilson’s tenure (now… where have we seen the consequences of that?). Wilson’s been incredibly consistent in his first three years, but he’s averaged only 417 pass attempts a year in his three seasons. In 2014, his pass attempts and yardage were up, but his TD total decreased for the second year in a row, and he was really powered by the unusually-high 849/6 rushing line he put up. That’s hard to duplicate, and now Wilson doesn’t have to. With Graham in the fold, it will actually be easier for Wilson to run for TDs, but more importantly and reliably, it will be easier for him to pass for scores.

Andrew Luck (QB, Ind) – While we should be conditioned to temper enthusiasm when a team brings in an aged veteran or two, the bottom line is Luck’s supporting cast did get better with the additions of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson. Luck’s supporting cast is a very important element because he proved in 2014 that he could take full advantage of the talent around him. There wasn’t much in 2013, but with a few key guys added to the mix in 2014, Luck’s production soared to 27.7 FP/G, which was up a whopping 6 points per game from the year before. The history of veteran RBs turning 32 like Gore isn’t great, so Indy could liberally work in another back like Dan Herron. But Gore, who hasn’t missed a game since 2010 (64 straight games) and still passes the eyeball test well, is unquestionably an upgrade for this team in terms of running the ball. He can also contribute meaningfully in the passing game (Colin Kaepernick, unlike Luck, just does not check down). The Colts have also taken steps to help their OL by re-signing versatile free agent Joe Reitz and also signing released tough guy Todd Herremans, whose body is breaking down but who will likely start if he’s healthy. As for the soon-to-be-34-year-old Johnson, he’s clearly not as explosive as he once was, yet he’s still a very, very effective player who’s an upgrade over Reggie Wayne and who should complement T.Y. Hilton and their TEs very well. I was planning on having Luck as our No. 1 QB for 2015, and these two key moves only cement that.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, Mia) – Tannehill has lost a top playmaker in Mike Wallace, who led the team with 10 TDs in 2014, but he’s gained a top-5 talent at TE in Jordan Cameron, and an intriguing wideout in Kenny Stills, so Tannehill’s off-season is going just fine. One could easily argue that Tannehill is much better off with these two intermediate receivers than with Wallace, whose futility clicking down the field with the young QB is well documented. Stills was a strong catch rate/YPT guy in 2013, and he then posted perhaps the most impressive catch rate (77.8%) and YPT totals (7.37) from 2014. Considered by many to be just a downfield threat, the 6’0’’, 194-pound Stills improved his route-running in 2014 and was more than reliable in the short and intermediate areas, which he should continue to be with Tannehill. Cameron has considerable concussion issues, a major concern, but he’s a top talent at the position, and I like how he’s more of a traditional TE than Charles Clay, who wasn’t a guy who consistently threatened defenses down the seam (and who will be a Bill in 2015). Dolphin TEs quietly caught 82 catches in Bill Lazor’s offense, and that was with Clay missing two games, so this is definitely a good spot for Cameron. Overall, I view Cameron and Stills as an upgrade for Tannehill compared to Wallace and Clay, and they may not be done adding another impact receiver, as they had free agent Michael Crabtree in for a visit this week.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Min) – Losing a versatile veteran leader like Greg Jennings could wind up hurting Bridgewater at times, but it’s hard to ignore the addition of a playmaker who dictates coverage in Mike Wallace. If nothing else, Wallace’s presence should help open up receiving lanes and opportunities for their other weapons, namely TE Kyle Rudolph but also incumbent wideouts Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright, both of whom showed good chemistry with Teddy in 2014. Bridgewater threw at least 1 TD in each of his final 10 games last year, but it was his work the final five weeks of the season that was particularly impressive. Over that period, Bridgewater was tied with Tony Romo for the best completion percentage in football (72.1%), and he was second to Russell Wilson with 8.8 yards-per-attempt. That’s a smaller sampling, but we’ve consistently found a strong correlation between strong QB play and signal-callers who complete 65% or more of their passes for 7.5 YPA or better, and Teddy shattered both numbers as a rookie with a mediocre receiving corps. He noticeably improved his downfield throwing as the season progressed, and for the season he actually ranked 10^th, with a 46.3% completion percentage on balls traveling at least 20 yards in the air, according to Pro Football Focus. Bridgewater will never be as effective on deep throws as Ben Roethlisberger, but I think he’s going to do better getting the ball to Wallace than Tannehill did, and with Norv Turner pulling the strings I expect Bridgewater to take better advantage of his new toy.

Eli Manning (QB, NYJ) – This isn’t an incredibly enthusiastic upgrade, but you have to appreciate for Manning the move to add RB Shane Vereen to their offensive arsenal. While Rashad Jennings is a big back who can pass-protect and catch the ball well, Vereen is a way better option for Eli in the short passing game. He obviously has much better speed, and therefore Vereen also has much more versatility in the passing game, making him a solid fit for Ben McAdoo’s West Coast style offense. The Giants also added a useful depth receiver and return man in former Cowboy Dwayne Harris. The rebuilding process on their OL is seemingly never-ending, and it continues in 2015, but Manning’s Giants are pretty loaded with offensive weapons right now. If Victor Cruz is okay this summer, this offense looks more complete and explosive than we’ve seen in a while, and it could take a step forward in the second year of McAdoo’s scheme.

Blake Bortles (QB, Jac) – There’s still plenty of work to be done in Jacksonville – they need to continue to shore up their OL and get a legit No. 1 RB – but the addition of TE Julius Thomas (who’ll work out with Bortles next week to get a leg up on their chemistry) represents a big upgrade over Marcedes Lewis (although Lewis is a much better blocker). The Jags did sign free agent T Jermey Parnell, who started eight games at RT for Dallas last year, including the playoffs, and he performed well, so the OL has been upgraded and the Jags quickly addressed arguably their two biggest needs on offense (RT and TE). The OL upgrade is a big key because Bortles’ mechanics did break down in 2014, resulting in terrible inaccuracy, and I’d have to believe his shoddy protection was a big reason why. If Bortles’ line is reinforced and just decent, and if he continues to progress, there’s a lot to work with. Granted, it’s a very young receiving corps after they let veteran Cecil Shorts leave for Houston, but it’s also a very talented one with great upside as the young players grow and learn to play together. Bortles isn’t yet a slam-dunk for fantasy and is probably a year or two away from fully breaking out, but his value is on the rise. Next up, I hope, is an impact player at RB in the draft, and it’s a deep RB class. The point is, Bortles needs to show some progress this year, because he is well-armed.

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) – While the addition of Reggie Bush means that Hyde’s volume potential takes a hit, since Bush could easily handle the majority of the pass-catching duties – and it looks like they could throw more to the backs this year – it’s certainly not the end of the world for Hyde. Bush was a needed upgrade over injury-prone backup Kendall Hunter, so I don’t view his addition as an indictment on Hyde. And it’s not like Bush can be counted on to stay healthy and to carry the rock consistently inside. The 49ers have gone through a really tough off-season, notably for Hyde losing G Mike Iupati in free agency (although he wasn’t as good in 2014), but they appear to be retooling rather than rebuilding. We’ll likely see more read-option from Colin Kaepernick, which can be a boon to a running game, and Hyde ran a lot out of shotgun and pistol formations in college. And with Torrey Smith now on the roster, teams will have to respect Kaepernick’s big arm more than ever, which should help Hyde. Kaepernick will lose something in pass protection going from Gore (one of the best around) to Hyde, but Hyde is well-constructed physically, and while he didn’t get a lot of college reps in pass protection because of the Ohio State offensive system, he uses his hands and anchors well and can be a good blocker. Hyde actually caught one more pass than Gore as a rookie, so I don’t think this is an Alfred Morris situation with Hyde being worthless in the passing game. We do have to keep expectations in check with Hyde, since he is unproven as a lead back, is on a team that has lost a lot of talent, and is expected to be drafted highly, but his value is indisputably on the rise with Gore gone.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) – This time of the year, one of the best ways to gauge what a team’s plans are for the upcoming season is to analyze their personnel moves – and in New Orleans’ case, they’re clearly planning on being more RB-centric than we’ve seen in about a decade. Gone are pass-catching specialists Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet, and also gone is receiving stud (and poor blocker) TE Jimmy Graham and a top wideout inKenny Stills. One player who is arriving is high-end C Max Unger, so it all adds up to the Saints looking to run the rock more in 2015. Ingram will obviously compete for touches with C.J. Spiller, but trying to run Spiller inside has been an exercise in futility the last two seasons in Buffalo. Spiller could catch 50+ balls this year, but Ingram came into his own in the passing game in 2014, as he came into 2014 with a total of 24/143 in three previous seasons and managed 29/145 just this past season. Ingram ended up as the #12 RB with 14.9 FPG, yet he averaged only 52% of snaps per game (a number that rose from 42% in the first half of the season to 56% in the second half). They do still have Khiry Robinson, and they could pull yet another productive back out of thin air this summer, but Ingram made it clear entering free agency he wants the ball more, and we believe he’ll get exactly that, especially after signing his sizable deal.

C.J. Spiller (RB, NO) – Speak of the devil! And yeah, we’re likely to get some eye rolls here, as Spiller has burned fantasy owners two years in a row after his huge 2012, in large part because of nagging injuries. That said, we love his situation in New Orleans. The Saints have made drastic changes offensively, with Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills gone, while adding C Max Unger and signing Spiller to go with the re-signed Mark Ingram. But most importantly for Spiller is the departure of Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet, which opens up a whopping 83 receptions from Drew Brees. Spiller undoubtedly isn’t going to run a lot between the tackles, but that’s not where he wins – Doug Marrone consistently failed to get Spiller into space in his two years with the Bills. Entering his age 28 season, Spiller hasn’t been overworked, with just two seasons with 200+ carries, so a combo of Ingram and Spiller could work out quite nicely, as neither player would be overworked. Spiller’s had excellent receiving production in the past, and while his 43 catches and 10.7 YPC from 2012 look like an anomaly in his career, he’s now in a place where he can attempt to touch that upside. A potential mid-round pick with upside playing with Brees, Spiller’s more palatable as a fantasy option than he’s been in a long, long time.

Frank Gore (RB, Ind) – While Gore moves from a San Francisco team that’s recently enjoyed strong OL play to a team that’s struggled up front for years, the fact remains that Gore’s fantasy fortunes are on the upswing playing with QB Andrew Luck in Indy. Gore’s a big Pep Hamilton fan, and he fits perfectly into Hamilton’s power running scheme, one that is very similar to what Gore ran behind in SF (Hamilton coached at Stanford with former 49er OC Greg Roman). I’d guess right now that Dan Herron will be a fairly active complementary back and pass-catcher, but Gore’s role in the passing game is still set to increase considerably. Keep in mind Gore averaged 42.5 catches a season in five seasons from 2006-2010. Back in 2013, I asked Gore why he wasn’t catching more passes recently in San Fran, and he told me that his “QB had a big arm and liked to use it.” That may be true, but Kaepernick isn’t much of a checkdown guy, whereas Andrew Luck is. Luck completed a whopping 130 passes to RBs in 2014 (Kap only 44), and if Trent Richardson can put up top-25 numbers the first ten games of the season playing behind Ahmad Bradshaw (who was 8^th during that time with 17 FPG), then Gore owning a healthy percentage of his backfield can put up top-20 numbers. He’s obviously 32 this year, and that’s a scary number, and he’s a year-to-year guy at this point. But there’s no noticeable drop-off in terms of the eyeball test (although he doesn’t pop off as many longer runs these days) and the stat sheet.

Theo Riddick (RB, Det) – Despite some sporadic usage in 2014 at times, the Lions are high on Riddick, and that’s something they showed with their release of Reggie Bush. Starter Joquie Bell is a good receiver out of the backfield, but he’s not a speedy playmaker in space like Riddick and has been banged up more and more, so the former Golden Domer should have an active role in the offense. There’s been some talk of the Lions using an early pick on a back like Georgia's Todd Gurley, but they’ll most likely address some other more pressing needs the first two days of the draft, so Riddick’s role should be set. Riddick has not yet proved he can be an effective runner, averaging only 2.7 YPC on 29 career carries, but the Lions not only believe he’s capable of more in the running game, they love how he and Bell complement each other. The Lions aren’t throwing the ball quite as much under Joe Lombardi, their improved defense also hurts their attempt number, but Bush and Riddick did combine for 74 catches, so Riddick, who averaged a solid 9.3 yards-per-catch last year, has a chance to haul in 50+ balls.

Darren McFadden (RB, Dal) – As I facetiously tweeted when his deal went down, the signing of McFadden is good news for the next back they add, and that’s true because the Cowboys certainly can’t count on McFadden to take over for DeMarco Murray. But the fact is, he’s joining an offense that boasts the best OL in the league. Dallas’ line is so good that McFadden might actually produce in a zone blocking scheme, a system in which he’s consistently struggled (they also have elements of power/trap running), and it’s probably worth noting that McFadden has some similarities to Murray, since they are both downhill runners with good size and speed. Dallas could easily use their No. 1 pick on a back like Todd Gurley, but McFadden looks like an active #2 and insurance policy in an offense that will stay very committed to the running game in 2015, and that’s not a bad situation at all for the much-maligned veteran.

Jordan Matthews (WR, Phi) – After parting ways with their top playmakers the last two years, the Eagles don’t seem to value dynamic offensive players the way the rest of the league does, and that’s fine for Matthews, who I wouldn’t necessarily call a “playmaker.” According to ProFootballFocus, only Randall Cobb ran more routes from the slot than Matthews’ 446, which was a whopping 92.4% of Matthews’ total routes run. It made sense, then, that Matthews’ performance took off when Mark Sanchez took over at QB. Sanchez was far less willing to challenge defenses on the perimeter and down the field than was Nick Foles, and Matthews posted 35/559/5 receiving on 50 targets (16.0 YPC), and averaged 15.1 FPG, #19 among all WRs with Sanchez. Mathews will likely be working with Sam Bradford this year, but at least Sanchez is back in the fold, and between the two veteran quarterbacks, Mathews should be in solid shape as he looks to improve in his second season. We’ll see what the final state of this receiving corps looks like, but with Jeremy Maclin gone, Matthews’ opportunities are on the rise. One thing to watch is whether or not he’s left in the slot. If he’s not and is asked to play outside, that would be a concern because he doesn’t move very well and could get shut down by tight coverage by the league’s better corners.

Brandin Cooks (WR, NO) – While the Saints are clearly trending toward being more of a running team than they’ve been in nearly a decade, they’re still led by a Hall of Fame QB who’s averaged 440 completions the last three seasons – and someone has to catch those passes. The Saints will add another receiver at some point, but with Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills gone, Cooks is going to get as many targets as he can handle. And while he’s not a big receiver, Cooks appears capable of handling a lot. Although his home/away splits were disappointing, through the first 11 weeks, Cooks still looked like PPR gold, racking up at least 5 catches in seven of his first 10 games and at least 50 yards in six of those. He averaged 73% of the snaps per game and despite not doing much down the field, just 29.5% of his routes came out of the slot. I thought Cooks was outstanding in 2014 when he was on the field, and he was very consistent and efficient, catching a healthy 76.8% of his targets. That was the second-best percentage among all WRs who had at least 60 targets (Wes Welker was slightly better). Cooks’ 7.97 yard-per-target number wasn’t great, but Cooks was just starting to heat up as a downfield threat before his injury and just missed a couple of downfield grabs, which would have helped the YPT number. But the key point here, of course, is all the pass target recipients are no longer with the team. Between Graham, Stills, Pierre Thomas, and Travaris Cadet, the Saints have lost players who combined for a whopping 312 targets, or 19.5 per game. Even if we just look at Graham and Stills, that’s 206 targets, or 12.8 per game. If Cooks can just grab 2.5 of them in 2015, at his rookie catch rate, he’d project to 115 catches in 16 games. We’ll likely see more downfield throws, and thus a lower catch rate, but his big plays and YPT should increase, and he’ll pull in his fair share of the 13 TD receptions Graham and Stills scored last year. Cooks was back to catching passes and working out in mid-January, so the thumb injury shouldn’t be a nagging one, meaning he’ll be ready for a true breakout season in 2015.

Jarvis Landry (WR, Mia) – Last summer, when pumping Landry up as a deep sleeper, I continually mentioned how QB Ryan Tannehill is very, very comfortable throwing the ball underneath and in the short-to-intermediate area. That helps explain Landry’s surprisingly productive rookie season – and the departure of Mike Wallace. New hire Kenny Stills was a deep threat at times for the Saints, but he’s really also an underneath guy – more Lance Moore than Robert Meachem. Stills will get plenty of opportunities, as will new TE Jordan Cameron, but Landry looks like the guy. Landry ran the majority of his routes from the slot, and he’s a precise route-runner who was very consistent as a rookie. For example, his catch rate in the first half of the season (75.8%) was nearly identical to his in the second half (75.6%). In the final eight games of 2014, Landry was tied for 9^th at WR, with 72 targets, or 9 per game. At his 76% catch rate, would Landry project to haul in 109 balls in his second season. Landry will never be a vertical threat because he doesn’t have game-breaking skills, but I did think he was a little more explosive than advertised, and with Wallace and Charles Clay gone, there are 198 pass targets missing from this 2014 roster. Cameron will obviously get some, as will Stills, but the ascending and reliable Landry should definitely pick up a few more looks each week this year (note: as of publication time, the Dolphins still haven’t signed Michael Crabtree, who was in for a visit this week).

Anquan Boldin (WR, SF) – The retooling 49ers have already parted ways with top wideout Michael Crabtree, and they’ve replaced him with Torrey Smith – which means we’re likely looking at another 80+ catch year for Boldin. In Smith, the strong-armed Colin Kaepernick finally has a receiver who can seriously challenge defenses down the field, so I’m not down on the pickup for the team. However, Smith is one of the league’s more inefficient receivers (not including all his PI calls), catching only 51% of his targets the last two seasons. It could take him some time to acclimate himself to his new environs, and the Niners will undoubtedly continue to target him down the field, so he should continue to catch a low percentage of his targets. In 16 games last year (all starts), Boldin posted 83/1062/5 (12.8 YPC) on 127 targets (65.4% catch rate) to finish as the #25 WR with 13.7 FPG while playing an average of 90% of the snaps per game. He had double-digit FP and at least 5 receptions in 10 of 16 games. While Boldin hit 100 yards just once, he was easily the team’s best receiver and had to deal with the struggles of QB Colin Kaepernick and a generally average offense. He’s in the final year of his deal in 2015, and the way this team is set up right now offensively, unless TE Vernon Davis re-emerges from the grave as a go-to guy, Boldin should once again be peppered with targets this year. Boldin may not run by anyone anymore, but he still has great hands and knows how to get open, which is especially important playing with someone as erratic as Kaepernick, with whom he does have solid chemistry. Boldin was quite possibly the most underappreciated fantasy wideout in the game last year, and fantasy owners should take note because he could actually be more productive in PPR scoring this year.

Dwayne Bowe (WR, Cle) – Bowe can be the bane of my existence because it hasn’t been easy to ignore his large role in the passing game as the undisputed top wideout. Yet, as we know now, being “the guy” doesn’t mean Bowe’s production will even resemble consistency. Granted, his former QBAlex Smith hasn’t exactly helped make him any better, but Bowe’s also been looking a little sluggish the last two seasons. In Cleveland, he’ll at least project as the No. 1 passing target because they literally have nothing at TE and have a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 wideout types like Brian Hartline andTaylor Gabriel. If Josh McCown is the starter for all or most of the year, he’ll obviously target Bowe plenty, and at least McCown is more of a gunslinger and risk-taker than Smith is. The Browns really like his size and wide catching radius in traffic and on contested catches, and they also like his inside/outside versatility, so it sure sounds like he will be a foundation player in their offense (not that they have much as far as an alternative). We’ll see if the Browns add a wideout of note in the draft, and if Johnny Manziel has a chance to win the job this year, that’s two potential problems for Bowe. But for now he’s a fair upgrade moving from KC to Cleveland.

Jarius Wright (WR, Min) – With veteran Greg Jennings released, it clears a path for the underrated Wright to settle in as their slot receiver. The Vikings will lose some diversity in terms of routes going from Jennings to Wright, but what they gain is speed, as Wright ran a 4.42 40 at the combine back in 2012 and scored an 87-yard game-winning TD against the Jets this past season, which was the second-longest OT TD catch in NFL history. Wright ran just 23.5% of his routes from the slot, according to ProFootballFocus, so he actually worked a lot more on the outside than you’d think for a 5’10”, 180-pound WR, but OC Norv Turner likes what he brings to the table in the slot and the expectation – which could change after the draft – is that Wright’s going to be their primary slot guy. Turner likes Wright’s speed inside and he believes he’s a tougher matchup, especially if defenses start doubling Wallace. We can’t expect a statistical bonanza from Wright, but he’s coming off a season in which he showed good chemistry with QB Teddy Bridgewater (a very good 70% catch rate) and he posted career-highs in catches and yardage. The Vikings do still have Cordarrelle Patterson and could also draft a wideout of note, but for now, the timing is good for Wright’s role to increase, since he’s entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2015.

Josh Huff (WR, Phi) – The Eagles are very high on Huff, who played for Chip Kelly at Oregon and who we listed as a player to trade for before Jeremy Maclin flew the coop. The Eagles have not only failed to bring in a wideout in free agency, but they also lost their top playmaker in Maclin, and so Huff’s value is on the rise. Philly will add a wideout or two (or three) this year, but it remains to be seen if they can unseat Huff, who not only knows the offense from his rookie season and from Oregon, but who also has the versatility to play inside or outside. In fact, since he has better movement and versatility, Huff may actually have more upside than Jordan Matthews. That’s a bold statement for a young receiver who caught just 8 passes for 98 yards as a rookie, fumbled twice, and had some bad drops, including one that led to an interception, and a guy who missed the first four games of the season with a shoulder injury. But Huff is really talented and has some natural explosiveness out of his routes, and his playmaking ability was showcased in 2014, as he returned a kickoff for a TD in Week Twelve and made a big play against the Cowboys in Week Fifteen. Expect Huff to get more snaps in 2015 because the Eagles need someone to play over fantasy cockroach Riley Cooper, and as of right now, they are pretty darn thin at wide receiver.

Brian Hartline (WR, Cle) – Hartline is a guy who was perennially underrated and underappreciated in Miami, yet it’s hard not to be underwhelmed with his addition if you’re rooting for the Browns. Hartline got phased out of the Dolphin offense last season, and he became the #4 receiver by end of year, after finishing with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. So it wasn't shocking when the Dolphins cut Hartline in February to free up money. Hartline had a miserable season in 2014, catching just 39 of his 62 targets (62.9% catch rate) for 474 yards (12.2 YPC) and 2 TDs for a 6.2 FPG average. Hartline played 87% of the snaps in the first half of the season and 63% in the second half. Hartline played plenty last season, but Ryan Tannehill simply wasn’t looking for the mediocre WR as he had in his first two seasons. Hartline grew up in Ohio and played at Ohio State, and he should be well cast as the #2 with Dwayne Bowe added to the mix (obviously, Josh Gordon is suspended for the season). The Brown passing game could certainly still stink, and it’s tough to get too excited about him as a fantasy option. But his value is still up from where it was in 2014 and where it stood as a Dolphin in 2015.

Jeremy Kerley (WR, NYJ) – At some point, I should probably just give up on Kerley, who’s been “intriguing” for a couple of years now, but hasn’t exactly been “productive.” However, with Percy Harvin gone and Brandon Marshall added, Kerley will finally be cast in the role he’s best-suited for: a No. 3 wideout and slot receiver. Kerley’s been pressed into a bigger role than he probably deserves over the last three season due to the lack of talent in the Jet receiving corps, yet that was apparently enough to reward him with a four-year, $16 million deal in October. He didn’t do much to justify that deal in 2014 by posting just 38/409/1 (10.8 YPC) on 74 targets (51.4% catch rate), putting him at a mere 5.8 FPG (t-94^th). However, Kerley did show flashes, like the 7/81/1 on 11 targets he put up in Week Three. The addition of Marshall and the development of TE Jace Amaro will limit Kerley’s upside on a team that will be led by its defense, but I do like how Kerley will finally be properly cast in this offense. He did show some chemistry with Geno Smith, and if it’s not Smith under center we know Ryan Fitzpatrick is very comfortable throwing the ball underneath and over the middle, so Kerley could be more consistent than ever.

Jordan Cameron (TE, Mia) – The Browns tried to retain Cameron’s services earlier this month, but fantasy owners are glad they failed because Miami is a much better situation. Cameron is still a risky proposition given the severity of his concussion issues last year, but at least as a Dolphin he has more tangible upside than in Cleveland, thanks to QB Ryan Tannehill. Miami let Charles Clay depart and join the Bills, who signed him to a ridiculously rich offer sheet Miami didn’t match. Clay’s a unique and productive player, but his ceiling isn’t as high as the incredibly-athletic Cameron, who can be a major big-play threat down the seam and who is a terrific red zone threat. A 4^th-round pick in 2011, Cameron has put up 130/1600/10 in his career, but he’s best known for his 80/917/7 line in 2013. At his best, Cameron is one of the most dangerous players at his position, and it is easy now to forget that he was a former college hoops player with minimal TE experience, so he could still be ascending. This should be a good situation because the offense is TE-friendly and because Tannehill is very comfortable throwing the ball underneath and down the seam. With Clay gone, backup Dion Sims is their primary blocker at the position, and Cameron easily has top-5 potential in this good situation as the move guy.

Owen Daniels (TE, Den) – Daniels will be a tricky fantasy prospect because the 32-year old (he’ll be 33 in November) seems like he could fall off a cliff physically at any time. Heck, he’s already got his next career lined up (he’s going to be a weatherman). Daniels was merely decent in Gary Kubiak’soffense in 2014, and he was a guy who was hard to trust because he was capable of logging a complete stinker at any time (he went for 8 or fewer points in PPR scoring 10 times, which is hard to do for a No. 1 TE). He signed a three-year deal worth up to $12 million, but it’s a low-risk move for Denver because only $3 million is reportedly guaranteed. The team also re-signed Virgil Green, who is very athletic but has been used mostly as a blocker in Denver. Daniels is a consummate professional who’s never been outside of Kubiak’s offense, so you just know he’ll be hunkering down with Peyton Manning to make the transition to the new coordinator. In the process, Daniels is a good bet to quickly gain the trust of Manning, and we know that’s a great situation to be in.

Josh Hill (TE, NO) – Hill was a noted TD vulture in 2014, and he sparked many “that-helps-no-one” tweets from disgruntled fantasy fans last year. But now he’s fully on the radar after the team traded away Jimmy Graham. While my guess is the club will bring in some competition for Hill, it’s going to be hard for anyone to unseat Sean Payton’s new pet project. Hill, who led the team in tackles on special teams, has a big advantage over all comers in that he has the support of Peyton and two years of experience in the offense. Payton is big on consistency and doing all the little things right, and he already seems sold that Hill will bring that to the table, plus he’s also a pretty talented guy whose height, weight, and speed measure up well to most starting TEs in the league. Hill actually averaged only .3 yards a catch fewer than Travis Kelce, and he equaled Kelce’s 5 TDs in 2014. You’re likely going to be hearing a lot more about him in the coming months, as he’s quickly gone from being off the grid to landing in everyone’s top-30 at the position.

Downgrades

Drew Brees (QB, NO) – We noticed a dropoff in Brees’ play in 2014, and it sure looks like Sean Payton and the Saints did, too, as they have taken steps to pull back from their reliance on Brees. Those steps have given him a nice 1-2 punch at RB in Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, but they have also robbed him of two of his top-four receivers the last two seasons in Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. If you add in the loss of Pierre Thomas, and not even including Travaris Cadet, Brees has lost 193 catches, 2,198 yards, and 14 TDs from 2014. In addition, the Saints are likely to use a second-day pick on a QB, as they are clearly preparing for the end of the 36-year old Brees’ career. Now, that career isn’t over yet, and he’s still a good bet to put up top-5 numbers at the position, but his days of posting massive digits may be over. The Saints recognized the issues Brees had dealing with pressure up the middle, and they did address the center position in the Jimmy Graham trade by acquiring former Seahawk Max Unger. But no matter how you slice it, Brees’ receiving corps has been seriously depleted, and it’s going to be impossible for them to replace Graham’s production and the stress he places on defenses. And with Marques Colston also coming off a down year and on the downside of his career, Brees’ receiving corps is really, really thin. Fantasy owners will work all these elements into the equation when drafting Brees in 2015, so his ADP will surely drop, and it sure looks like Brees has more downside than he’s had in almost a decade.

Joe Flacco (QB, Bal) – Flacco has always been tough to trust for fantasy, but he wound up predictably having his best statistical season under Gary Kubiak. That was nice and all, but Kubiak is gone, and so is Torrey Smith. Flacco’s Ravens also lost their top TE from last year in Owen Daniels, and who knows if Dennis Pitta can contribute in 2015? It could be Crockett Gilmore time this year in Baltimore. That would make Gilmore a deep sleeper, but he’s not exactly a proven commodity. The biggest issue is a lack of a downfield threat, and that’s not something they’re likely to add in free agency (although a possession-type veteran like Michael Crabtree would be nice). Most likely, Baltimore is going to make its splash move at WR in the draft, so Flacco could be leaning heavily on a rookie wideout. Flacco was a top-20 producer in terms of fantasy points per game, and a top-15 producer in overall scoring, but with excellent depth at the position in 2015, he’s just a guy.

DeMarco Murray (RB, Phi) – Murray is a downgrade from where he was in 2014 with a whopping 450 touches, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like him in 2015. While his massive workload in his final season in Dallas is a concern, and he’s going to be running behind a lesser OL, Murray’s still a good bet to produce in Philly. From a volume standpoint, the presence of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles will hurt Murray’s consistency. But the Philly OL is very athletic and strong, and under Kelly the Eagles have finished in the top-7 in rushing and have run for over 4500 yards in two seasons, so Murray will continue to have very good lanes to hit. Fantasy owners will be mainly concerned about the rotation with Mathews, who is also a great fit in the Eagles’ zone scheme. But let’s not forget that Mathews had a hard time getting on the field on 3^rd down in San Diego, and while both are fumblers, I’d guess they’ll trust Murray a lot more in tight. Murray remains an excellent goal-line back because he puts his foot in the ground and goes, which Kelly felt he didn’t have in LeSean McCoy last year. Murray scored 9 TDs on his 17 runs inside the five last year, with only Rashad Jennings (6/11) converting a higher percentage of his goal-line carries into TDs among RBs with 10 or more chances last year (McCoy was 3/11, by comparison). Murray’s carries (393) may fall by around 100-125, and his receiving production (57/416 on 64 targets) will probably take a hit, too. That’s almost certainly a good thing for Murray’s career, as he had a history of injuries before his monster 2014 season. The money and Murray’s skills indicate he will be the top guy as long as he’s healthy. That means he’ll merely be a really good fantasy back instead of a consistently dominant one.

LeSean McCoy (RB, Buf) – I get that McCoy is going to get as many carries as he can possibly handle, so he’ll remain a highly sought after fantasy commodity. But if his name recognition and expected volume keeps him in the consensus top-15 or so overall, I expect to pass on him in 2015. A consensus top-3 pick in 2015, and often the #1 overall pick, McCoy ranked #18 among RBs in PPR leagues, with 12.9 FPG. It’s hard to spin that in the positive, but there are some legitimate excuses for McCoy, namely the four-game suspension of RT Lane Johnson and the other injuries on the OL. Most disconcerting with McCoy is how he essentially lost the 3^rd-down and goal-line roles to Darren Sproles and Chris Polk, respectively. McCoy scored just 5 TDs, down from 11 the year before. And more alarmingly, his receiving production was atrocious. He posted just 29/155/0 receiving on 38 targets (5.3 YPC, 76.3%), a monster drop from 52/540/2 a season ago. The Bills happen to have one of the most reliable and productive 3^rd-down backs in the league in Fred Jackson, who is also a better short-yardage option on top of the goal than McCoy, who is more of a space runner than a guy who’ll pound the rock inside content to move the ball 4-5 yards at a time. The Bills are going to do what they can to upgrade their OL, and they have added G Ritchie Incognito, but this Buffalo line is the same one that didn’t create much space for their backs last year – it was ranked as the worst run-blocking unit by Pro Football Focus – as their top-four RBs averaged fewer than 4.0 yards a carry as a group. I’m also concerned about the overall dropoff in talent on the Bills’ roster. The Bills do have an excellent defense, but their offense is transitioning to a new system and is relying on Matt Cassel andEJ Manuel, which is pretty scary. Also scary is the workload McCoy has handled the last five years. McCoy over that span has more touches than anyone else in the NFL, and his 626 carries over the past two seasons also led the league, so the fact that he’s only just turning 27 in July may not be relevant in this case. The bottom line is that McCoy was less effective in 2014, and I view it as a sign of trouble. I also view the downgrade in OL and overall offensive production as a warning sign. We’ll have to see where his ADP stands in the summer, but my guess is he’ll still be a top-15 pick, which is a bit rich for my tastes given the increased downside he now brings to the table.

Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG) – One of the reasons I liked Jennings so much in 2014 was because I felt he was going to own all the roles in the Giant backfield, and he did. We never did see rookie Andre Williams take over the goal-line rushing duties, and no one else really challenged Williams for the pass-catching duties in Ben McAdoo’s offense. As expected, Jennings when he was healthy was a major volume guy, and he basically owned the pass-catching duties out of the backfield. He put up only 30/226/0 receiving, but he did that on only 41 targets, so you can see what his upside was had he stayed relatively healthy all year. Jennings got 20 or more touches six times in 2014, and he averaged a whopping 18.8 FPG in PPR in those six games. Alas, it’s very clear that Jennings simply can’t hold up with that kind of workload, as he proved last year. His unreliability really put a huge damper on his fantasy potential, and now with Shane Vereen added, he takes a PPR hit. Between his legit durability concerns, the Vereen addition, and the presence of Williams, who could still wind up vulturing some short rushing TDs, Jennings isn’t a guy we truly want to count on in 2015.

Ryan Mathews (RB, Phi) – While Mathews goes to arguably a better situation than San Diego by signing with Philadelphia, he’s taking a big hit in terms of role, and that’s obviously very important. According to Mathews, Philly’s signing of DeMarco Murray did not discourage him from signing, so he’s placing winning above having a larger role on his new team. One of the league’s most naturally gifted pure runners, Mathews has logged only one healthy season in his five-year career, missing 20 games, including 10 in 2014 with a serious ankle injury. He wound up starting in all six of his appearances, rushing for 330 yards and 3 TDs on 74 carries (4.5 YPC) and adding 9/69 10 targets, which put him at 6.7 FPG. That was on the heels of his excellent 2013 season, but his yard-per-touch numbers in 2014 were very similar to that promising ’13 campaign (4.4 YPC vs. 4.5 and 7.3 YP catch vs. 7.7). Mathews is a skilled three-down player with excellent feet and strong versatility, and he’s a very good fit for the Eagles’ downhill zone running game. But he’s probably best suited in a rotational role, which is exactly what he’ll have in Philadelphia, so he’s more of an insurance plan for Murray (who has his own injury history) than a bell cow. This is one of the better OLs in football, and the Eagles are run-heavy, so there should be plenty of carries to go around for Murray, Mathews, and Darren Sproles. Unfortunately for Mathews, he’s had issues getting on the field in passing situations in the past (although he’s a good receiver, he’s had fumbling and protection problems), and Murray is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, plus Sproles will obviously get plenty of targets. So while Mathews should handle roughly 20-25% of the rushing load with mostly Murray, Mathews will likely be nothing more than a fantasy headache in 2015. Of course, if Murray misses time, a healthy Mathews would be incredibly appealing in this good situation, so he should be one of the best handcuffs in the league.

Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown (RBs, Buf) – Jackson would like to play two to three more years, but we all know he’s on his last legs, and although there would have been a major outcry if he was released, Jackson’s probably lucky to have survived the acquisition of LeSean McCoy. Jackson could seriously disrupt McCoy’s value if he carves out a large role on 3^rd-down and in goal-line situations, but the Bills and OC Greg Roman are going to feed McCoy the ball as a runner as much as they possibly can, so Jackson’s going to be only a role player from now on. As for Brown, any chance he had to carry the load is gone, and he’s merely just an intriguing handcuff for McCoy, as he was in Philly back in 2013. Brown won’t even be that if he fumbles or struggles in any other way, as the aged Jackson can probably still carry the load for a few weeks if need be.

Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ) – While I believe that Marshall is still near the top of his game, he is getting older and he crossed over into his 30s last year, and that’s a concern as he transitions to yet another new team in 2015. It’s hard to say that he’s going to suffer a big dropoff in QB play becauseJay Cutler and the Bear passing game was pitiful at times in 2014, but we all know how deadly the Cutler-Marshall combo can be, and it’s at least fair to say that Marshall’s upside is limited in New York. Still, between Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marshall should be able to produce solid digits. After all, Marshall’s put up strong numbers with guys like Kyle Orton, Matt Moore, and Chad Henne throwing him the ball, so it’s not like the level of QB play has hurt his numbers, which included 1000-yard seasons from 2007-2013. Marshall turns 31 at the end of March and his body may be starting to break down, but while his days of being a No. 1 fantasy receiver are over, he can still produce like a decent No. 2 or a great No. 3, even on the Jets.

Robert Woods (WR, Buf) – Woods is a nice player who did a good job in 2014, but he did also lose some looks to a journeyman in Chris Hogan, and there’s not a large margin for error on a team that doesn’t have a lot of passing production to go around. Hogan should be back in the mix, but the bigger concerns here are Percy Harvin and Charles Clay, who’ll certainly command plenty of looks and touches. With Sammy Watkins entrenched as their go-to receiver, it’s probably going to be hard for Woods to emerge as a reliable fantasy option, even on the low-end. Harvin is at least not a guy anyone can truly rely on, but any fantasy potential Woods had as the clear No. 2 option in the passing game has taken a hit.

Donte Moncrief (WR, Ind) – We’ve loved Moncrief from Day One and we’ve pushed him hard as mainly a keeper and dynasty option but also as a potential break-out player in 2015. Alas, the addition of Andre Johnson will unquestionably put that plan on hold. Johnson’s obviously a major volume receiver, and he won’t disappear for weeks at a time like Hakeem Nicks did, plus he’s been durable the last three years so he has a good chance to play all 16 games, unlike Reggie Wayne last year. The issues with Nicks and Wayne helped get Moncrief on the field in 2014, but while he should be the clear No. 3 WR, Moncrief will probably be too hard to trust on a week-to-week basis. Barring an injury to someone else, his bright future as a possible fantasy difference-maker will have to be put on hold for now, but it does open an interesting buy-low dynasty window.

Jimmy Graham (TE, Sea) – No matter how you slice it, going from a pass-oriented Saint offense and Drew Brees to a run-based offense with Russell Wilson is a downgrade. That said, it’s not a downgrade in terms of his 2015 positional ranking because I can’t find another player to rank over him as fantasy’s No. 2 TE. But Graham’s stock takes a hit in terms of his overall ranking this year. Seattle desperately needed his size in the red zone, but as we know this is a run-heavy offense, as Russell Wilson has averaged only 417 pass attempts a year in his three seasons. One element that could work in his favor in Seattle is his snap count, which has been maddeningly low at times in New Orleans. If the Seahawks view Graham as essentially a flexed out wide receiver, that could help offset him going from a pass-happy offense to a run-happy one. We’ll see about that, but I’d have to think his targets will be reduced, so he could be more reliant on scoring TDs than ever, which is a slight concern because of Wilson and Marshawn Lynch’s effectiveness running the ball in for scores (19 TDs last year).

Julius Thomas (TE, Jac) – I like the move to Jacksonville for Blake Bortles, of course, but it’s hard to love it, at least right away, for Thomas – really hard. Thomas is a guy who has had multiple injuries in his two most productive years and multiple ankle issues. It is one thing to take on those injury concerns and rely heavily on TDs with Thomas playing with Peyton Manning, but it’s quite another thing considering he’s now a Jaguar. Thomas caught 24 TDs in his final 27 regular-season games with the Broncos, becoming the first TE in league history to catch at least 12 scores in consecutive seasons. I’m sure he’ll be featured more in the passing game in Jacksonville, but he’s been more reliant on TDs than a typical stud, and Jacksonville is a team that passed for only 14 scores in 2014. Thomas will help out this very young receiving corps and give Bortles a versatile, big-bodied receiver and red zone threat, and I do think he should still be in the top-5 at the position. But it will be important not to overrate him in 2015 based on his production in Denver.

Luke Willson (TE, Sea) – While the Seahawks have been searching far and wide for an impact player at the TE position, Willson was tenuously set as the team’s TE of the future. His role now isn’t as tenuous, but it’s also not nearly as appealing, as Willson immediately becomes their backup TE of the present and likely the future. Seattle also has Cooper Helfet, and they like backup RaShaun Allen, who spent most of last season on the practice squad, plus they actually re-signed veteran Anthony McCoy, who has spent the last two seasons on IR. In short, if you’ve been holding onto Willson in a dynasty league, you can probably let him go now.

Marcedes Lewis (TE, Bal) – Lewis, who just completed his ninth season, is a very good blocker, but with Julius Thomas added that might not be enough to save Lewis’ roster spot. Lewis has missed 13 games combined the last two years, and he has only three more TDs in nine seasons than Thomas scored in 2013-2014 in Denver. Lewis has an $8 million cap number this year, and the Jag can save $6.8 million by trading or releasing him after incurring a $1.4 million cap hit, so things are not looking good for the veteran.

Holding Steady

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) – The Packers invested draft picks on three WRs in 2014, as they wisely continued to reload at the position after losing stalwarts Greg Jennings and James Jones. But heading into 2015 free agency, there was a real fear that the Packers would be losing stud Randall Cobb. Of course, the savvy Packers got a bit of a hometown discount and they wisely locked in a major impact player who for the first time in his career played in all 16 games. If life wasn’t already good for Rodgers, the Packers also stepped up to the plate and retained free agent tackle Brian Bulaga, so the talented Packer OL has a good chance to continue to ascend and settle in as a top-five unit. The Packers are a little thinner at wideout than we’re used to, but with Cobb retained they can continue to develop their young receivers and reload at the position in terms of having quality depth, including second-year targets Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis, plus #3 Davante Adams.

Alex Smith (QB, KC) – I’ve jokingly referred to Smith as an “anti-Gurrite” because, while he’s a very respectable NFL QB, he’s not someone who helps his receivers put up numbers, and he’s not exactly a playmaker. Of course, we all know about their futility in 2014 throwing TD passes to their WRs (or not throwing them). New hire Jeremy Maclin won’t likely make a lot of big plays with Smith, just like he didn’t once Mark Sanchez took over in Philly last year, but Maclin still represents a big upgrade over Dwayne Bowe. Maclin’s transition should be easier than usual for a wideout, given his history with Andy Reid, and he has more versatility than Bowe. Smith will also have the benefit of having a healthier Travis Kelce, who admitted this week that he wasn’t yet 100% in 2014. Smith’s never going to be a guy who takes a lot of risks, but he is still running (50/254/1 this past year), so with Maclin added Smith has a solid chance to slide back into the top-20 in QB scoring, for what it’s worth.

Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson (RBs, Jac) – With just about all the quality free agent RBs off the market, these two guys are holding steady as the team’s top-two options at the position. The Jags did make a surprising move this week by picking up the pedestrian Bernard Pierce off waivers after Pierce was cut by the Ravens following a DUI arrest. As for Jordan Todman, he was not tendered as a RFA, so he’s now free to sign with any team. We can’t rule out a return, since HC Gus Bradley is a fan of Todman’s. Second-year back Storm Johnson is also in the mix for now, but Johnson failed to distinguish himself in 2014. The Jags are all about upgrading their roster right now, and they have a ton of cap room to continue to do, so we can’t rule anything out (even a trade for Adrian Peterson). Most likely, though, they’ll use a higher pick on a back in the draft. It’s a deep RB class, and I’d venture to guess the Jags used a second-day pick on one of the five or six top prospects in the draft, all of whom are capable of handling a healthy chunk of the rushing load.

Joique Bell (RB, Det) – Bell became the starting RB and clear lead back in Detroit by the middle of 2014, with Reggie Bush battling injuries. The Lions then cut Bush this February, and the Lions appear in no rush to sign a back-up RB or to draft a RB with a high pick. We can’t totally rule out the Lions adding some depth at RB in the draft, but it looks like Joique will handle the bulk of the lead-back work, with Theo Riddick stepping into Bush’s former role. Bell doesn’t have much mileage in his five-year career, with just 610 career touches, but he will turn 29 this season and he did have to undergo some clean-up surgeries on his knee and Achilles. Still, Riddick showed very little as a runner last season, so Bell could eclipse his 223/860/7 rushing line that he posted in 2014.

Devonta Freeman (RB, Atl) – Freeman’s value is still in limbo before the draft, but at least it hasn't dropped from where it was after the Steven Jackson release. The Falcons didn’t make any moves in free agency to add depth at running back (other than re-signing Antone Smith), so they look prepared to give Freeman his chance as the top back unless they spend a high draft pick at RB. He’s potentially primed for a break-out year because he’s the only legitimate RB left on the Atlanta roster. But we do have questions about Freeman’s ability to hold up and produce as the true lead back in Atlanta. He’s tough and physical, but we’re not sure he’s strong and powerful enough to be a 275+ touch guy. It was also a little disconcerting that he couldn’t carve out a larger role on the Falcons as a rookie in 2014. Should the Falcons add a RB of note in the draft, Freeman’s value will take a hit, but he already dodged one bullet when the Falcons didn’t add a RB in free agency. If you have him in dynasty, it may be smart now to try to flip him for a WR.

Jonathan Stewart (RB, Car) - Stewart resurrected his career with a fairly healthy campaign, and he became the Panthers’ feature back for the first time since 2009. The Panthers also had their most success late in the season when Stewart dominated the touches in the backfield. The Panthers liked what they saw from Stewart last season, and they decided to give DeAngelo Williams his walking papers this off-season. All signs are pointing toward Stewart being the feature back in 2015. If he can somehow manage to stay healthy next season, Stewart has the potential to be a low-end RB1 for fantasy. However, we’re not really inclined to let his two-month run in 2014 blind us from the fact that he’s a player with major availability issues. The Panthers also appear to be very interested in using an early pick on a RB in the draft, as top prospects Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman will take visits to Carolina. Stewart is trending slightly upward heading toward the 2015 season, but we’ll see what the Panthers do in the draft, and we can’t forget his durability issues from the past.

Latavius Murray (RB, Oak) – With Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew both out of the picture, Murray projects as the Raiders’ lead back in 2015. However, the additions of Roy Helu and Trent Richardson didn’t really help Murray’s fantasy prospects for 2015. The Richardson addition may speak to some concerns about Murray’s ability to stay healthy due to his physical and upright running style. Still, we’re not exactly shying away from Murray due to these additions, since he still has plenty of upside for next season. Richardson is barely hanging onto his NFL career at this point, and he can’t be seen as anything more than a flier who’s not a lock to make this team out of camp. Helu is the bigger threat to Murray’s playing time because he’s a good receiver out of the backfield and he’ll cut into Murray’s PPR value. Murray is great in pass protection and has upside in the passing game, but Helu will obviously take some of those passing-down snaps away from Murray. Helu also isn’t a bad runner to boot, so he can stay on the field in up-tempo situations. Murray will play behind a decent offensive line – they added the best available C Rodney Hudson – and this offense could be ascending with young QB Derek Carr in charge, so we still want to buy Murray stock in 2015.

Roy Helu (RB, Oak) – Helu posted 10+ points (PPR) six times in 2014, but we still felt on a week-to-week basis that he was an unreliable play because of an inconsistent role in the offense. Helu failed to go over 10 points in his final 10 games under Mike Shanahan in 2013 – so he was better under Jay Gruden – but he was still prone to posting duds in 2014. But the Redskins were a mess, and believe it or not we actually think Helu is better off moving to Oakland. And as a receiver, Helu was excellent last year, posting 42/477/2 on 47 targets (nearly 90% catch rate). The Raiders did complete a decent 107 passes to their backs, including FB Marcel Reese, and QB David Carr had no problem checking the ball down and/or throwing it 20 yards and in, almost to a fault. Projected starter Latavius Murray is very good in pass protection, and he’s capable of putting up strong numbers in the passing game, but it looks like Helu will have a more solidified role than he’s had in Washington, so his value is inching upward.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, Chi) – Jeffery was 6^th at WR in targets in 2014 (145), so I can’t say his role is poised to grow this year, but their reliance on him certainly will increase with Brandon Marshall and his 8 TDs shipped out of town. With two extremely productive years under his belt, we should feel good about Jeffery’s ability to handle the No. 1 role, and I liked the addition of Eddie Royal (who played with QB Jay Cutler in Denver) to help take some pressure off Jeffery along with TEMartellus Bennett. Cutler was a disaster in 2014, and he’s hanging on by a thread here, but they don’t have any other options, so the veteran QB is locked in for 2015. Cutler’s obviously a great arm talent and can get Jeffery the ball all over the field, so Jeffery is looking quite solid this year.

Kenny Stills (WR, Mia) – As mentioned above, despite some success as a deep threat in New Orleans, Stills is really more of an underneath run-after-the-catch guy, so the fit in Miami is a good one. This scheme gets guys open, and Tannehill is very capable of getting them the ball as long as they’re not running deep routes on the outside. It will be interesting to see what Stills can do in a truly featured role as his team’s clear No. 3 WR because he was never a guy who consistently got targets in New Orleans, and he does have some durability questions. But one thing is clear: He’s been outstanding the last two years in terms of his catch rate and his yardage per target, which makes him intriguing as his volume is likely to increase in Miami. Wes Welker, who thrives next to the line of scrimmage, was the only player to post a higher catch rate (77.8%) than Stills, and Welker averaged nearly 4 fewer yards per target (7.37). Stills put up video game numbers all year long, and he’s shown that he can not only be a deep target, but that he can be a reliable option in the intermediate areas, which is a key as he moves to playing with Tannehill in Miami.

Cody Latimer (WR, Den) – The Broncos spent a 2^nd-round pick on Latimer last year, but they had no real intentions of using him in 2014. However, things have already changed early in 2015. The club has lost free agent Julius Thomas, who lines up frequently on the outside, so his departure likely means a bigger reliance on Latimer. Additionally, they have no intention of bringing veteran Wes Welker back, so Latimer should have a good chance to emerge as a critical player in this offense. New HC Gary Kubiak has preferred to use more 2-WR sets in his previous stops in Baltimore and Houston, but Latimer is too talented to not utilize in perhaps Peyton Manning‘s final season, and Peyton’s offenses have certainly supported several fantasy receivers at once in the past. When they go three-wide, Emanuel Sanders can play in the slot, which was probably the 2015 plan when they drafted Latimore and signed the free agent Sanders in 2014.

Cecil Shorts (WR, Jac) – The injury-prone shorts was expected to leave the Jaguars, but what wasn’t known is what his opportunity would be on his new team, and the good news for Shorts is that it’s very good. The Texans had a clear need at WR with the departure of Andre Johnson, so Shorts should fill that role in the starting lineup opposite DeAndre Hopkins. Last season, Shorts became just another guy in the Jaguar offense with talented rookie WRs Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, and Allen Hurnsaround him. Shorts didn’t make any big plays, averaging a measly 10.5 YPC, and he scored just 1 TD all the way back in his first game of the season. He finished the year with 53 catches on 110 targets (a pathetic 48.2% catch rate) for 557 yards and 1 TD in 13 games, averaging 9.3 FPG. Shorts did play on 87% of the snaps when he was in the lineup, but he didn’t get the volume he previously received. He once again dealt with hamstring issues, and he’s had concussion issues in the past, so that has to be a concern going forward. Other than Hopkins, the Texans don’t have much in terms of established talent and we’d expect them to look at the WR when the draft rolls around. But for now, it looks like Shorts has found a solid landing spot with a chance to hang on to the starting job opposite a talented played in Hopkins.

Mychal Rivera (TE, Oak) – You may remember Rivera from that handful of relevant fantasy performances in 2014, but the reality is that he’s a replaceable player, and Oakland has tried to replace him. They missed out on Julius Thomas, so they then turned their attention veteran Jermaine Gresham, who may be underwhelming but is a more complete option than Rivera. However, Gresham has a herniated disc in his back and it will require surgery. There’s no current timetable for a return, so his status is in limbo. There’s nothing else available in free agency, and it’s not a good TE class, so Rivera may get another chance to build on the momentum he created in 2014. Rivera got more volume than expected last year, but he didn’t do much with it. In 16 games (10 starts), Rivera ended up with 58/534/4 (9.2 YPC) on 99 targets (58.6% catch rate), which was good enough for 19^th at the position, with 8.5 FPG. Rivera is more of a tweener than a typical #1 TE, but if he’s atop the depth chart come August, he’ll be a top-24 TE and a solid backup option, especially in PPR leagues.

We'll See

Sam Bradford (QB, Phi) – Bradford’s situation in Philly is one of the most intriguing in all of the NFL (obviously). The Eagles swung the stunning trade for him, centered around Nick Foles, soon after free agency opened last week, and the entire football world has spent the week and a half following the trade wondering if we should believe anything Chip Kelly says. Here’s our take: #1, if Bradford is healthy, then we like him far better in this offense than Foles, whom we soured on with his poor play last year. #2, Bradford did run a version of Kelly’s up-tempo offense at Oklahoma, when he won the Heisman Trophy in 2008. #3, we don’t buy for one second that Kelly will be ignoring a legitimate opportunity to get Marcus Mariota in Philly. At his best (and yeah, there are so many ifs here), Bradford is an exceptional arm talent with pinpoint accuracy and rapid decision-making who doesn’t turn the ball over (2.2% career INT rate), which Kelly wants above all else. That said, his two ACL tears and his time in St. Louis behind a bad offensive line with so many different coordinators have left him skittish. And we’ll be going in blind on Bradford, since he hasn’t played meaningful football in about 18 months. So he’s a lottery ticket for multiple reasons. We can’t fully commit to him until after the draft, in the event that Bradford isn’t even in Philly (multiple reports suggest the Browns already offered the #19 pick for him). And if he’s in Philly, it’s hard to go all-in given his knee, even if he looks good in August. But what Kelly has here is a gamble on a contingency plan. Bradford is still young and the Eagles believe in both his physical talent and the strength of their medical staff. If Kelly truly can’t make a play for Mariota, he’s prepared to roll with Bradford, and he feels better about that than he would have with Foles. For best-ball nuts drafting now, Bradford is a mid-to-late upside pick, understanding that he might not even be in this situation come May. But if he’s healthy and is in Philly into the fall, it stands to reason he’ll provide return on that investment multiple times over.

Mark Sanchez (QB, Phi) – Sanchez’s contract with the Eagles – which pays him between starter and back-up money, kind of like Josh McCown – makes sense given what happened after the fact. The Eagles dealt for the oft-injured but talented Sam Bradford, a trade that reportedly had been in the works for weeks before it happened. So in a way, Sanchez is the contingency for the Eagles’ contingency. To reiterate, we are not going to be convinced Bradford will be staying in Philly until after the NFL Draft, and if the Eagles can actually deal for Marcus Mariota without selling the farm, we expect Chip Kelly will do it. But that’s likely something that we won’t know about until late April. So Sanchez, who performed about as well as could reasonably be expected in his time under Kelly last year, provides the Eagles with a very good back-up option for Bradford in the event Bradford gets hurt again. Jeremy Maclin is gone, yes, but Sanchez made most of his hay with Jordan Matthews anyway. In the eight games he started last year, he was the #10 fantasy QB, so he’s as legit a “handcuff” as there is at the position.

Nick Foles (QB, Stl) – The bad news for Foles dynasty owners is that he’s out of the electric Chip Kelly offense and into St. Louis, where the Rams have been tying keys to a kite for the last decade hoping for the same bolt to strike them that struck “The Greatest Show on Turf.” The good news is that, ostensibly, he is the guy in St. Louis. Were Foles still in Philly, he’d have Mark Sanchez breathing down his neck, and Sanchez outplayed him last year. He was clearly a guy Kelly soured on, but now he appears to have the full support of the brain trust in St. Louis. And the Rams aren’t without talent, with a solid back in Tre Mason and intriguing guys like Brian Quick, Stedman Bailey, Kenny Britt, and even Tavon Austin on the perimeter (plus Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks at TE). What the Rams lack is a go-to guy, and most importantly, an offensive line we really feel good about. Foles’ play can really slip under pressure, and if he faces it in St. Louis, his numbers will dip yet again. But the key here is his leash is likely much longer than it would be in Philly, which makes him a more appealing best-ball pick at this stage of the game, at least.

Derek Carr (QB, Oak) – We thought having a young, talented QB like Carr would help the recruitment process in Oakland, but the Raiders failed to land any of the big-name skill players, specifically in the receiving corps. While we like the addition of RB Roy Helu as a very good receiver out of the backfield, the next biggest move skill-wise was the signing of RB Trent Richardson. That’s not very exciting. Carr had a fine rookie season without a lot of help around him, but right now Carr’s receiving corps will be led by James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Rod Streater. However, since they failed to land TE Julius Thomas or any other receiver of note, we now fully expect them to use the 4^th pick in the draft on either Alabama’s Amari Cooper or West Virginia’s Kevin White. Either player would likely start from Day One and give Carr a legitimate No. 1 wideout. The Raiders haven’t done nearly enough for us to get really excited about him in 2015, but landing a top wideout in this year’s draft would quickly change that.

Andre Ellington (RB, Ari) – If you’re an Ellington owner worried about Adrian Peterson landing in Arizona, it doesn’t look like that will come to fruition. According to Peter King of The MMQB, the Cardinals haven’t had contact with the Vikings about a deal and “there is no way” they could live with Peterson’s contract, which still has three years and $45 million left on it. Then again, they could restructure some deals to make it happen if the Vikings and Peterson are game. Ellington is coming back from a season-long foot injury and a sports hernia, but was able to avoid surgery and has been running since January. HC Bruce Arians said Ellington remains “the focal point of the offense” although GM Steve Keim said the team wants Ellington to be “bigger and stronger” and you’d think that would help him stay on the field since he’s not the biggest guy at 5’9’’ and 199 pounds. The Cardinals sure seem intent on adding a bigger back of note, so Ellington’s value is still in limbo. It’s either going to take a big hit if they land Peterson, a fairly significant one if they use a second-day pick on a quality back, or a fairly minimal one if they use a later pick on a sizable back.

Dan Herron (RB, Ind) – Herron emerged from the abyss that was the Colt backfield to be their most productive back once Ahmad Bradshaw was lost for the season. Of course, he didn’t get much competition from Trent Richardson, who is now in the Oakland backfield. However, Herron’s stock took a hit with the signing of veteran Frank Gore. Herron’s best chance at keeping a somewhat active role in this offense could come in the passing game. Herron had 21/173 on 26 targets last season and Gore hasn’t had 30 receptions since 2010 and has had fewer than 20 receptions in three of the last four seasons (although we expect Gore’s reception total to rise considerably this year). Herron had just three games of double-digit FP last season, so it wasn’t even like he was a strong option for fantasy when he was the top back for Indy. Even if he’s an active complement to Gore, it’s hard to see him making much of an impact in such a loaded offense.

James White (RB, NE) – White was active for just three games last season and carried the ball 9 times for 38 yards while adding 5/23 as a receiver as a rookie. He saw players like Jonas Gray and LeGarrette Blount zoom past him on the depth chart, so he had no fantasy value by the end of the season. Blount and Gray are still around, but Stevan Ridley remains a free agent (coming off a torn ACL), and the team did add Travaris Cadet after losingShane Vereen to the Giants. The door is slightly more open for White than it was when the season ended, but he hasn’t shown anything to give us confidence about his role, although we know it’s always hard to trust any Patriot RB. White’s role is still uncertain and we may not learn more about it until the preseason. Complicating matters a little more is the presence of speedy journeyman Dion Lewis, who could be in the mix as a changeup.

Torrey Smith (WR, SF) – Smith followed the money to San Francisco, cashing in with a five-year deal worth $40 million, including $40 million guaranteed. He’s reunited with Anquan Boldin, but takes a step down at QB from Joe Flacco to Colin Kaepernick. We’ve been begging the 49ers to add some speed at WR for years and the finally got their man in Smith, which would theoretically help Kaepernick, although Kaepernick desperately needs to improve in all facets of passing after taking a step back in 2014. Smith has rarely been a consistent fantasy option and is coming off a season with career lows in receptions (49) and yards (767), yet he managed to keep his fantasy value relevant with 11 TDs. That’s going to be a tough number to duplicate with Kaepernick, who threw only 19 last year. At least Kaepernick has a cannon, and the duo should stress defenses down the field, but both players have limitations, so Smith will probably be even more hit-or-miss than he’s been.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Hou) – Hopkins was the top fantasy option in Houston last season, something that will continue going forward after the team released Andre Johnson. To replace Johnson, the Texans signed Cecil Shorts, so the combination of Hopkins and Shorts doesn’t look bad on paper, but we’re wondering if Hopkins is ready to be the #1 WR and handle the extra attention that comes with that role. He battled a wrist issue last season and ended up having surgery at the end of the year. That included both a rod and pin being inserted, but both have been removed and Hopkins should be back to football activities soon, according to an interview on Sports Radio 610 in Houston. Hopkins’ route-running and numbers improved significantly after a shaky rookie season, but now he’ll have to be the man without Johnson and a QB situation that will come down to Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer. It’ll be a lot to handle for the third-year receiver, and we’re not totally sold on him just yet.

Marquess Wilson (WR, Chi) – 2014 was supposed to be a break-out season for Wilson, but a broken collarbone in the preseason landed him on the designated-to-return IR and limited him to just seven games (17/140/1). With the new regime not having anything positive to say about WR Brandon Marshall, it was only a matter of time before the sides parted ways, and that’s exactly what happened when Marshall was traded to the Jets. That was an immediate boost to Wilson’s fantasy value, although we highly doubt the Bear offense will be as fantasy-friendly under new HC John Fox. Wilson’s rising stock didn’t last for very long, as the team would add WR Eddie Royal, a former target of QB Jay Cutler’s in Denver. Royal is coming off his second-best season with his best being – you guessed it! –with Cutler in Denver. The departure of Marshall should move Wilson into a starting role opposite WR Alshon Jeffery, but we’d put him as the fourth option in the passing game behind Jeffery, RB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett, and Royal. His numbers will definitely improve with a bigger role, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a reliable fantasy option.

Percy Harvin (WR, Buf) – Harvin will remain in the AFC East and join his fourth team since 2009 after signing with the Bills. It’s a three-year deal worth $24 million, but it can be voided after one season at $6 million. Harvin’s 2014 season began in Seattle, but he spent almost all of it with the Jets, totaling 51/483/1 through the air and 33/202/1 on the ground. The versatile Harvin hasn’t been a reliable fantasy player since leaving the Vikings in 2012 and issues both on and off the field haven’t given him much job security. According to ESPN, Harvin wants to be more of a traditional WR instead of the gadget role he’s played for most of his career. Of course, that’s been a big help to his fantasy value, so a change from that wouldn’t be a positive. He’s also joining a team that has a big-time WR in Sammy Watkins, in addition to RBs LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson, and their newest signing, TE Charles Clay. Add in a checkdown guy like Matt Cassel at QB, and it’s hard to get excited about Harvin’s prospects in Buffalo, although he’s likely to make some splashy YAC plays. We just wouldn’t expect much consistency.

Jared Cook (TE, Stl) – Since signing with the Rams in 2013, Cook has had his two best seasons of his six-year career, yet that hasn’t meant much for fantasy on a bad Rams team that unfortunately still includes TD vulture Lance Kendricks, who re-signed with the team shortly after the start of free agency. Add in the return of WR Kenny Britt, a healthy Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey, and you have the targets getting scattered all over the field. Plus, Cook has to get acquainted with new QB Nick Foles, so there could be some growing pains with new OC Frank Cignetti. There’s really nothing positive to say about Cook’s fantasy value heading into 2015.

Levine Toilolo (TE, Atl) – Toilolo was given the task of replacing Tony Gonzalez last season, and he didn’t quite get the job done. Toilolo finished with 31/238/2 on 52 targets and was the #47 TE at 4.3 FPG, which was easily the worst finish of any regular starting TE. It should come as no surprise to see the Falcons looking around for a better option, and they found two in Jacob Tamme and Tony Moeaki. The Falcons still will likely entertain drafting a TE in April-May, so at best Toilolo shouldn’t be anything more than a complementary player, as we’ve seen over the last two seasons.

FantasyGuru.com’s Joe Dolan, Matt Camp, and Tom Brolley contributed to this report

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Friday, March 20, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #5 (Post-Free Agency Stock Watch)

Post-Free Agency Stock Watch

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