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OFF-SEASON REPORT #4
Published Online, March 4, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
IN THIS ISSUE:
- Off-Season Report #4: Players to Trade/Trade For: Keeper League Edition
ONLINE NOW:
- Depth Charts - 3/5
- 2015 Free Agency Preview - 3/3
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
- 2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
- 2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
- 2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
- SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
- 2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
- Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 2/4
- SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
- 2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
- 2014 Review/2015 Previews - 1-2/15
- SOS Adjusted RB Non-PPR Scores 2014 - 1/29
- SOS Adjusted QB Scores for 2014 - 1/22
UP NEXT:
- 2015 Player Movement Tracker - We'll be starting this late this week reviewing all the moves and will continually update each day as free agency kicks off next week.
- Off-Season Report #5: Pre-Draft Rookie Report (Mid-March)
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Players to Trade and Trade For: Keeper League Edition
Published, 3/4/15
We’re all looking for an edge in fantasy football, and if you’re in a keeper league one way to gain an edge is to try to anticipate personnel moves before they happen. By doing so, it gives you chance to take advantage of fluctuating player values, and that’s what this article is all about.
Granted, when you’re talking about an environment in which there are myriad coaching changes and rampant free agency movement every season, along with shocking occurrences like an all-pro RBs being traded in his prime for a young LB coming off an ACL, being ahead of the curve can be challenging. For example, last year in this article we isolated Montee Ball as a player to trade for in a keeper league. A few weeks later, they let free agent Knowshon Moreno sign elsewhere (not a foregone conclusion when we published the article), and Ball’s value soared. We all know how that went, so being ahead of the curve isn’t a guarantee for success even if you use sound logic.
But with the start of free agency less than a week away, and the 2015 NFL Draft set for six weeks after that, there will be players whose values rise and fall based on the moves their teams makes, and it’s our intention to give you an edge by trying to anticipate some of those moves and the ramifications of them. Just remember that we’re not just looking at 2015 when it comes to our recommendations; we’re at least looking forward to the next 1-2 NFL seasons.
Players to Trade For:
Blake Bortles (QB, Jac) – While Bortles obviously struggled as a rookie, completing 58.9% of his passes, with 11 TDs and 17 INTs, we have to remember that rookie QBs are supposed to struggle. The Jaguars expected this – the discussion all last summer was that they wanted Bortles to sit for a year behind Chad Henne. We saw why. The Jag offensive line was brutal, as Bortles was sacked over 50 times, something that led to the breakdown in his mechanics and accuracy late in the season. His mechanical breakdown is disconcerting, but he had previously shown good progress in Jacksonville, and it’s still an issue that can be corrected with coaching, more experience, and better protection. Remember, the Jags were also breaking in young receivers, of which they have many, and lacked a consistent run game for most of the year. While the negatives for Bortles were evident, he stood tall in a really difficult situation with little support. For fantasy, he also ran for over 400 yards in less than a full season, which is a bright spot for his future as a fantasy play. There are reasons to be concerned, but Bortles still has the physical ability that made him a top-five pick, and none of the mistakes that he made were uncommon for a rookie QB. Bortles’ value could get a big lift in less than a week if they sign a top free agent TE like Julius Thomas orJordan Cameron (a TE upgrade is likely coming no matter what), and let’s not forget that ultra-talented receiver Justin Blackmon isn’t dead just yet. If things line up well, Bortles’ supporting cast at receiver could actually be quite stacked in a few short months (or weeks).
Derek Carr (QB, Oak) – For the first time in what seems like forever, the Raiders don’t have a major quarterback question heading into the off-season. That’s because the rookie Carr showed exceptional poise, leadership, and command of the offense while starting 16 games for an under-talented team in 2014, completing 21 TDs to just 12 INTs. Now, there are some issues – a lot of Carr’s TDs were short, and he averaged only 5.5 YPA, by far the lowest among starting QBs (Blake Bortles’ 6.1 was the next lowest). But Carr’s mental performance and resiliency were evident, and like Bortles, he played without a ton of help (the run game was completely nonexistent until Latavius Murray took over, for example). We’re not saying that this guy is going to be top-10 QB this year, but in a deeper dynasty league, Carr could be a long-term asset for a patient owner who can get him for a song. The Raiders are also well-positioned to add a young impact receiver to their club, and under new OC Bill Musgrave (coming over from Philly) they should be primed to run a ton of plays. Front and center is Randall Cobb, who the Raiders could make a serious run at. Interestingly, we actually compared Carr’s physical talent last year to that of Aaron Rodgers, and former Packer and current Raider James Jonesagrees, since he nicknamed Carr “Baby A-Rod” this year. Carr is an ascending asset with or without Cobb, since a major WR upgrade is coming this off-season in some way, shape, or form.
Zach Mettenberger (QB, Ten) – While it’s early March and for all intents and purposes the NFL Draft is still two months away, the Titans still haven’t been linked very often to Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, the top two QBs available. For months, the general sentiment has been that the Titans were pleased with Mettenberger’s play as a rookie, and the club feels it has more pressing needs on its roster. (Of course, it may also feel that neither Winston nor Mariota is a franchise QB.) Numbers-wise, Mettenberger checks several boxes, including a very impressive 7.9 YPA in seven games, and on tape he threw the ball more naturally than perhaps any of his rookie counterparts. But a major concern we have about Mettenberger is his health – he tore his ACL late in his final year at LSU, and missed the final three games with an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder (he stands tall in the pocket, which is good, but he also takes hits). If the Titans feel Mettenberger’s health checks out, they’re a prime candidate to trade down in the 2015 Draft because this is a roster that needs everything. He should be exceptionally cheap to acquire for dynasty players because Titans players aren’t exactly going for a premium, and there are things to like (especially in 2-QB dynasty leagues). Mettenberger may not be perfect, but it matters little that he was only a 7th round pick. His stock did slip due to injury and character concerns, but the bottom line is he has the attributes to develop into a quality starter. For the record, we’re not concerned with him off-the-field.
Nick Foles (QB, Phi) – The window to acquire Foles may be small, and it’s risky – it’s no secret that the Eagles want to get their hands on Oregon QBMarcus Mariota, and any deal that would land them the Oregon star would probably have to be done soon so Philly knows how to approach free agency, especially since they will no longer have the services of one LeSean McCoy. But if Mariota isn’t the guy in 2015 for Philly, it stands to reason that Foles will be, given he’s the only decent QB on the roster that the Eagles have under contract. In order to make a deal for Foles palatable, the cost has to be low, like buying Foles from a scared owner who either fears a Mariota trade or thinks Foles’ pumpkin turn in 2014 is very real and is only going to get worse. But that cheap investment could pay off because, if Foles projects as the Eagles’ starting QB come August, we will rank him very aggressively, likely in the top 12. If they Eagles do land Mariota, and we know they would love to, then Foles at the very least will likely be involved in the transaction and should get an opportunity to start elsewhere, so he’s not exactly a “boom-or-bust” option (although there’s certainly more “boom” in Philly).
Brock Osweiler (QB, Den) – We now know that Peyton Manning is back for at least 2015, and the Broncos are doing what they can to keep the band together (including franchising Demaryius Thomas). What’s something of a mystery is how they feel about Osweiler, but we’ve received word recently that they do still like him quite a bit and that he remains their future at the position. We’ve been impressed at times with Osweiler in the preseason, since he’s a huge passer with a big arm and solid mobility for his size, but he’s going to remain an unknown until he gets a legit shot to play. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract, so that chance may be somewhere else, but it could easily be in Denver after Peyton retires at the conclusion of the 2015 season. We have to admit that the prospect of landing a potential starter who has learned behind an all-time great in Manning for FOUR full seasons and will likely have at least two top-20 receivers (Demaryius and Emmanuel Sanders) is appealing. If you’re in a 2-QB or a deep dynasty league, there’s a legitimate shot Osweiler’s opportunity is coming soon.
Latavius Murray (RB, Oak) – Like Devonta Freeman, Murray is a “conditional” asset – it’s possible he fetches a ton in one league based on potential, or goes for a value in another because he hasn’t truly “broken out.” Nonetheless, Murray – who was on this list of ours last year – has a little bit better of a track record than Freeman, performing well as the lead back down the stretch for the Raiders in 2014. But he’s still a Raider, and buying him at a discount based on that fact alone may get you a really talented player, who has explosive traits for a guy with his huge frame (6’3”, 225). With Darren McFaddenand Maurice Jones-Drew almost certainly gone, Murray projects as the Raiders’ lead back in 2015 as it stands right now. Behind a decent OL and with long speed and effective pass protection and receiving skills, we honestly can’t see him failing unless his upright running style (a legit concern) leads to injury problems.
Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) – Hyde is another RB prospect who could be toeing the “buy low/sell high” line, depending on the fantasy player who is rostering him. The assumption, of course, is that the 49ers have big plans for him after spending a second-round pick on him last May and with Frank Gore hitting free agency. And while the Niners’ coaching moves this off-season have been uninspiring to say the least, at least there is some continuity here for Hyde, under Jim Tomsula and Geep Chryst. Hyde didn’t get a huge chance to shine in what was merely a rotational role, with just 95 offensive touches in 14 games, as he dealt with some ankle issues. The issue with trying to acquire him now is that everyone has him pegged for a huge role increase in 2015 on a potential run-heavy team, so it may be hard to negotiate a palatable price. Still, if Gore does find another home, Hyde’s stick will unquestionably rise immediately, so now may be a good time to get him. Plus, .Gore can’t play forever.
Bishop Sankey (RB, Ten) – Here’s a guy who is the opposite of Carlos Hyde – an early 2014 draft pick who was given some opportunity to shine but ultimately fell on his face. While there wasn’t the full commitment we’d have liked to see, as Ken Whisenhunt constantly threw Shonn Greene out there over Sankey, the Titans certainly got a decent enough look at him, with 170 offensive touches. We didn’t love Sankey coming out of Washington, and his rookie season proved that opportunity is just one piece of projecting a first-year back for fantasy. But there’s an opportunity to now use that poor rookie season to your advantage to acquire a young player on the cheap. The Titans may look to add some depth to this position, but they have so many other needs that spending a lot on another RB seems foolish. Sankey may not be overly talented, but he has the skills to be a decent 3-down back and it’s certainly possible that he gets the volume he needs to produce in the coming seasons for the Titans.
Charles Sims (RB, TB) – There are two things to note with Sims: First of all, he’s an excellent receiver, and we knew that coming out of West Virginia. Sims posted 19/190/0 receiving on 27 targets as a rookie, averaging a promising 10.0 YPC (small sample noted). But he also was poor as a runner, posting 66/185/1 on the ground, just 2.8 YPC behind a bad offensive line. Our guy Greg Cosell put it well this season on our podcast when he said there’s a “mechanical” element to the way Sims runs, reflected in that low YPC. So it’s potentially a good time to buy low on Sims, who has warts but will at least contribute on passing downs and could well get some early-down work if Doug Martin continues to look as bad as he has the last two seasons. We have major doubts about Martin at this point, and we do also like the Dirk Koetter hiring for Sims, since Koetter likes the throw the ball and likes to throw it to his RBs. For what it’s worth, likely Buccaneer starter Jameis Winston had some success throwing the ball to Devonta Freeman in 2013 and several Florida State RBs we active in the passing game with Winston in 2014
Jerick McKinnon (RB, Min) – McKinnon’s value obviously is tied at least somewhat to Adrian Peterson’s status, but let’s not forget that he’s a total athletic freak who essentially is still learning the RB position (he was an option QB in college for some time). McKinnon didn’t score a TD on any of his 140 offensive touches (obviously very fluky), and his receiving numbers were underwhelming (his 3.29 yards per target were the lowest among any RB with more like 10 targets). But it’s hard to deny the absolute explosive ability, and his two 100-yard rushing games were behind only Jeremy Hill among rookie RBs (he tied with several others, to be fair). That’s pretty good for a guy who never had more than 19 carries in a game. The point is he looks like a potentially explosive playmaker for quite some time in the NFL, and Peterson’s status is hardly settled for the short term and set for the long-term.
Theo Riddick (RB, Det) – The Lions have cut Reggie Bush, so for now it looks like a potential Joique Bell/Riddick rotation in their backfield. A former college WR, Riddick could be a very nice asset in deeper PPR dynasty leagues. He isn’t as natural at the RB position as you might like, but the Lions’ tendency to move him around and put him in favorable coverage situations can only help the quick and fast Riddick. Obviously, he would have been more appealing right at this moment if Bush was still technically on the roster, but Riddick is still an ascending player.
Khiry Robinson (RB, NO) – Khiry was on this list last year, and if you acquired him cheaply, hopefully you hung onto him. Obviously, things didn’t work out in 2014, with Mark Ingram having a break-out year and Robinson dealing with injuries, most seriously a broken arm suffered in Week Seven. Still, Robinson impressed with a limited role, averaging 4.8 YPC and scoring 3 TDs in 10 games, and his role was reportedly set to grow before his injury. Ingram is almost certain to walk, given the Saints’ awful cap situation, and Pierre Thomas’ future with the club seems to be is winding down. So Robinson could easily be a major factor for a Saint offense that actually committed to their running game in 2014. It’s always risky to buy into the Saint offense, but we could sign off on a deal for Robinson.
NOTE: As we were preparing to publish this article, the Saints released Thomas, so we were a day too late on this one. Still, Robinson’s value is on the rise.
Roy Helu (RB, FA) – Helu is a guy on whom there may be a small window to buy low, and it’s also risky – he’s an impending free agent who wants a bigger role and probably has earned one, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to find one. But check this out – as a receiver, Helu posted 42/477/2 on 47 targets with Washington in 2014, and his catch rate (89.4%) and yards per target (10.15) were higher than any RB with 20 or more targets. Just a few more carries here and there (and a better team) could make Helu an interesting fantasy asset if he lands elsewhere in his impending free agency. The word is that he’s 50/50 to stay/go, but we want him on this list on the chance he finds himself in a great situation, such as replacing Shane Vereen for the World Champion Patriots.
Michael Floyd (WR, Ari) – Floyd could be a post-hype sleeper in 2015, as he failed to break out in his third NFL season. Floyd finished with 47 catches on 98 targets (a miserable 48.0% catch rate) for 841 yards and 6 TDs, ranking him 51st among fantasy WRs, with 10.5 FPG. He did lead the team in TD catches, and his 17.9 YPC put him behind only DeSean Jackson, but he also had eight games with 2 or fewer catches. Floyd seemed to regress as an all-around receiver, as he primarily did his damage as a deep threat, but it didn’t help that the Cardinals went through four different QBs. Floyd, who just turned 25 in November, still has a ton of upside, but he needs to become a more consistent WR starting next season. At least he did end the season with a surge, catching 21/387/2 for 14.3 FPG in his final five games, and the Cardinal QB situation should improve with a healthy Carson Palmer back in the fold. Some will be scared off by Floyd’s 2014 campaign, so while Floyd may continue to be fairly frustrating as more of a one-trick pony than complete receiver, his upside in Bruce Arians’ offense if things go well with Palmer is considerable (he had two 5-catch, 100+ yard games the first three weeks with a healthy Palmer). As important, he can be had for an extremely reasonable price right now.
Donte Moncrief (WR, Ind) – Moncrief flashed at times during his rookie season, but he ultimately failed to break all the way though in 2014. Still, that wasn’t expected and the 21-year-old is definitely a strong keeper, especially since both Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks are free agents and shouldn’t be part of the Colts’ future. Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton are a part of the future and could be a nice pair for Andrew Luck for years to come. Moncrief played every game and wound up with 32/444/3 (13.9 YPC) on 48 targets (66.7% catch rate) to finish with 6 FPG. Moncrief is explosive and clearly has some play-making ability and is still very young, which is great news, especially when you’re attached to Luck. Moncrief looks like a great asset to own in dynasty formats, and his value should be on the rise heading into 2015, especially if he’s slated to be the #2 WR in this offense. Use the Colts’ recent signing of talented CFL star (and Cris’ son) Duron Carter for some leverage.
Davante Adams (WR, GB) – Adams entered his rookie season #4 on the depth charts, but it didn’t take long for him to overtake Jarrett Boykin. Adams did appear in every game and started 11 times (70% of the snaps), but he finished with just 38/446/3 (11.7 YPC) on 66 targets (57.6% catch rate) to finish with 6.7 FPG. Still, he has a chance to be a viable fantasy option in 2015 because we know how much the Packers love to run 3-WR sets and, of course, because he gets to play with Aaron Rodgers. Adams still needs some polish, but there’s also an outside shot that Adams could move up the depth chart if the team can’t come to an agreement with free agent Randall Cobb. Even if Cobb returns, there’s optimism with Adams because all of their top receivers (Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Cobb, and James Jones) started their careers slowly in this offense before catching on. There’s also usually ample production to go around in this Packer offense as we’ve seen over the years, and Adams could be the next Packer WR to watch his career take off. We had an opportunity to ask HC Mike McCarthy about Adams at the combine, and McCarthy said that he earned all his snaps from Day One last year, and that his chemistry with Rodgers was very good for a rookie. McCarthy clearly likes Adams a lot and the former Fresno State receiver will be a big part of their plans going forward. If Cobb is gone, Adams will be a huge part of their plans.
Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills (WRs, NO) – Cooks was PPR gold in his first 10 games before a broken thumb required surgery and ended his season. Cooks did a lot of his work near the line of scrimmage for Drew Brees, which led to a 76.8% catch rate. His 7.97 YPT could’ve been much better if the two had connected on a couple of near misses on deep balls. Cooks’ deep game was just starting to heat up before he got injured, but the good news is his value could be much higher right now if he played the whole season – and he was impressive doing what he was asked to do while he played in 2014. Stills posted perhaps the most unbelievable catch rate (76.8%) and YPT totals (11.35) from 2014. Stills averaged 13.09 YPT in the first half of the year, and that total dropped to 10.68 in the second half of the year when Stills saw some of the targets left behind by Cooks. Cooks is already back on the field and catching passes this winter, and he could have a break-out season in 2015. His catch rate could slip some next season, but his YPT could be on the rise, as the Saints should feature Cooks more as a deep receiver. Stills has shown that he can be a deep target and a reliable option in the intermediate areas, as well. Stills’ efficiency numbers will dip next season, but the Saints would be wise to get him more involved in 2015.
Kendall Wright (WR, Ten) – We loved him in the past but we thought this past summer that Wright was overvalued at his 6th-round draft status in the preseason, and his performance and overall numbers did fall off significantly from 2013. Wright finished with 57 catches on 93 targets (61.3% catch rate) for 715 yards (12.5 YPC) and 6 TDs in 14 games, ranking him 33rd among fantasy WRs with 12.1 FPG. HC Ken Whisenhunt didn’t seem too interested in getting Wright more involved last season, even after he posted 94 catches for 1,079 yards in 2013. Last year, Wright never became Whisenhunt’s Keenan Allen, who starred in Whisenhunt’s Charger offense in 2013. Wright averaged just 6.6 targets per game last season, a full 2 fewer targets per game than he saw in 2013 (8.6). Wright also dealt with a hand injury at the end of the year, which forced him to miss two games. Of course, Wright’s biggest problem last season was the QB carousel between Jake Locker, Zach Mettenberger, and Charlie Whitehurst, yet now we expect some continuity with Mettenberger a good bet to be the guy. Wright was still a stud out of the slot, running 74.8% of his routes from that spot and catching 44/556/5 there, according to ProFootballFocus. A pending free agent after the 2015 season, things seem set up well for him to put up the best numbers of his career in a contract year, especially since Justin Hunter can’t be relied on and Nate Washington could be gone. If Mettenberger delivers, Wright could easily be a 90+ catch guy this coming season.
Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee (WRs, Jac) – Robinson and Lee flipped and flopped on the depth chart from the preseason through the end of the year because of injuries. Robinson had an unceremonious end to a fine debut season, suffering a stress fracture in his right foot that cost him the final six games of the season. Lee struggled with hamstring issues early in the year before taking over as the #1 WR when Robinson went down with his foot injury. Robinson and Lee will battle for the most targets in this passing game next season from hopefully an improved Blake Bortles. Lee, the Z receiver, is more explosive and flashier, but Robinson, the X receiver, has quickly shown that he’s a very reliable option. Lee is trending in the right direction heading into the off-season after a slow start, and Robinson is expected to be ready for the start of OTAs, but their fantasy values will hinge on the development of Bortles. Since we’re pretty bullish on Bortles’ chances, it isn’t a bad bet to take some risk on the talent of these three young players.
Charles Johnson (WR, Min) – Johnson spent time in Packer and Brown training camps the last two years before becoming Teddy Bridgewater’s top target down the stretch. Once the Vikings finally benched Cordarrelle Patterson, Johnson caught 25 passes on 46 targets (54.3% catch rate) for 415 yards and 2 TDs in the final seven games for 11.1 FPG. He finished the year with 31/475/2 in 11 games, and he went from playing just 18% of the snaps in the first half of the season to 81% in the second half. OC Norv Turner credited Johnson with the Vikings’ offensive surge late in the season, as he took over as the X-receiver in Turner’s offense – a spot that’s produced for Josh Gordon and Vincent Jackson recently. Johnson will also be another year removed from the ACL surgery that ended his 2013 season. There’s a lot to like about Johnson heading into 2015, and we’ll be pumping him up as a late-round pick in the preseason. We’d advise that you get Johnson now before his momentum starts to build this summer.
Marquess Wilson (WR, Chi) – Wilson missed a chance to develop in his second season, as he would’ve been the #3 WR all season long if not for a broken collarbone in the preseason. Wilson played in only seven games in 2014, totaling 17/140/1 receiving on 31 targets. Wilson’s lone TD and his best game (7 catches, 66 yards) came in two of the three games that Brandon Marshall missed late in the season. Wilson is still raw and did have some terrible drops last season, but he’s still young (22 years old) and has good tools with size and speed. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him break out in Adam Gase’s offense, despite being rough around the edges. The Bears are reportedly considering cutting or trading Marshall this off-season, and Wilson’s value would skyrocket as the likely #2 WR across from Alshon Jeffery. So even though the Bears are already flirting with some available WRs like Brian Hartline, we’d want to get Wilson now while he’s dirt cheap.
Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey (WR, Stl) – The Ram passing game was nothing to get excited about in 2014 with Shaun Hill andAustin Davis at QB, but that presents some buy-low opportunities for these Ram WRs in 2015 with a hopefully healthy Sam Bradford running the show. Quick finally started to tap into his potential in his third season before his shoulder injury. The Rams were a mess at quarterback, but Quick became the team’s top target and put up great efficiency numbers (64.1%/9.62) before his injury. Austin, the former #8 overall pick in 2013, is entering a career crossroads this season, and a switch from Brian Schottenheimer to Frank Cignetti at OC could be what he needs to get more involved. Bailey put up some impressive efficiency numbers in limited work. He didn’t get too involved in the offense until Week Eleven, but he played well late in the year and could be the slot receiver for the Rams next season if Kenny Britt and Quick are on the outside. Quick is still early in his rehab from shoulder surgery, but there’s still a lot to like about him heading into 2015. Austin’s path to fantasy relevance is the toughest to envision right now, but he’s also the cheapest option out of these WRs.
Cody Latimer (WR, Den) – The Broncos spent a second-round pick on Latimer, but they had no real intentions of using him in 2014. However, Latimer won’t have any excuses for 2015, as GM John Elway has made it clear that Latimer will be their #3 WR. It may be hard for Latimer to make a huge impact with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ahead of him, and new HC Gary Kubiak has preferred to use more 2-WR sets in his previous stops in Baltimore and Houston. Still, Latimer has a chance to make a huge leap in his sophomore season, and Peyton Manning offenses have supported several fantasy receivers in the past. With Peyton closing in on retirement, the future of the Bronco offense is still very much up in the air after 2015, but Latimer is still a talent to bet on before he gets on the field.
Albert Wilson (WR, KC) – The Chiefs were a disaster at WR this past season, but Wilson’s emergence at the end of the year was one bright spot for the team. GM John Dorsey said after the season that he’s unsure if Wilson is a #2 WR, and ideally we’d think Wilson is a #3/slot WR. In fact, we asked Dorsey about Wilson in an interview at the combine and he not only confirmed his likely position in the slot, he seemed proud of Wilson’s progress late in the season. Wilson had to work as an every-down WR at the end of the year with Alex Smith getting nothing from Dwayne Bowe and the other WRs. Wilson caught 12/209 in Weeks Fourteen through Sixteen before putting up a goose egg in the season finale with Chase Daniel at QB. Wilson gave this unit the downfield speed that it had desperately been seeking all season long, and it’s something he clearly flashed for them in training camp last summer. Wilson needs to tighten his route running and learn the playbook, but he did at least give this offense a spark at WR. He could also see more time out of the slot going forward after running just 13% of his routes from that spot, according to ProFootballFocus. Wilson showed some promise when given a chance at the end of last season, and he could see his role grow next season with the Chiefs already parting ways with Donnie Avery and A.J. Jenkins.
Bruce Ellington (WR, SF) – Ellington worked primarily as a returner in 2014, managing just 6/62/2 on 12 targets in 13 games. At 5’9’’, 197 pounds, the 49ers were hoping to get a little speed and youth for an aging group at WR, but Ellington wasn’t able to bring much to the table as a rookie. He should have a chance to do much more if Michael Crabtree doesn’t return in what’s looking like a rebuilding project with the 49er offense. WR Stevie Johnsonis also a candidate to be released as well, if he doesn’t agree to a pay cut. So Ellington has a chance to have much bigger role next season, and he does have some explosive ability, which he showed in a 2-TD performance against the Chargers in Week Sixteen. Ellington is off the radar right now, but he could be on the rise later this summer.
Josh Huff (WR, Phi) – Huff’s rookie season seemed to be made up of only highs and lows, and nothing in between. He created several explosive plays, including returning a kickoff for a TD, but also had some problems with ball security and made several huge mistakes. Additionally, he dealt with injury issues. From what we’re told, this has not dampened the Eagles’ enthusiasm for him, and it goes without saying that Jeremy Maclin looks to be hitting the open market in free agency. A more dynamic natural athlete than teammate Jordan Matthews, Huff could see a significant increase in snaps in 2015, even if Maclin returns, because the Eagles need someone to unseat Riley Cooper (Huff can play outside if they chose to keep Matthews inside). And we’re sure the Eagles would love to see Huff get to play with former Oregon teammate Marcus Mariota…
Cole Beasley (WR, Dal) – Beasley came on strong after Week Twelve, recording 21/277/4 on 28 targets for 12.1 FPG in six games, and he added 7/99 in two playoff games, earning him a new four-year extension, signed in early March. He became a reliable target for QB Tony Romo in the underneath areas, running almost all of his routes out of the slot. Beasley finished with a 75.5% catch rate and 8.57 yards per target, so he was a really efficient receiver for Romo. We’d expect the Cowboys to keep Beasley involved in the offense going into next year after his strong finishing kick to the 2014 season – and since they don’t appear to be very interested in getting underwhelming TE Gavin Escobar on the field a ton in 2-TE sets. There’s very little risk taking on Beasley, as the Cowboys clearly like him, he brings more consistency to the offense than Terrance Williams does, and TE Jason Witten is no longer a spring chicken.
Eric Ebron (TE, Det) – Even though he was the #10 overall pick in last year’s draft, we tried to temper expectations for Ebron as a rookie since historically first-year TEs tend to struggle and don’t make a significant impact. TE may be the toughest position to learn as a rookie next to QB. Ebron certainly had his struggles in 2014, dealing with both injuries and the difficulties of adjusting to the pro game. We’re still high on Ebron for the long term because he’s in a great situation with strong talent around him like Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate on a team that loves throwing the ball. Ebron did show some improvement as a blocker toward the end of last season and we’d expect him to get more chances (46 targets in 12 games in 2014). We doubt Ebron has to worry much about Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria in his second season, especially since they didn’t do much last year and don’t have anywhere near Ebron’s talent. With Johnson’s injuries becoming more of a concern, the Lions need Ebron to step up in 2015, and we’ll be expecting more out of him after giving him a pass in 2014. If the light bulb goes on, a clear path to fantasy prominence is there for the taking for the talented Ebron playing in a TE-friendly offense alongside Calvin and Tate and with a gifted thrower in Stafford.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC) – We know Kelce was woefully underutilized in Kansas City last season, but when he was on the field, his talent jumped off the page. Kelce could’ve easily been a top-5 or even a top-3 fantasy TE last season if not for his QB Alex Smithand HC Andy Reid holding him back. As it is, Kelce still finished 8th among fantasy TEs, with 11.5 FPG, thanks to 67 catches on 87 targets (an outstanding 77.0% catch rate) for 862 yards (12.9 YPC) and 5 TDs. Niles Paul was the only fantasy TE to average more YPT (9.94) than Kelce, and Paul did it on 36 fewer targets. Jermaine Gresham was the only fantasy TE inside the top 25 who had a better catch rate (77.5%), and Gresham’s YPT (5.75) was more than 4 yards fewer than Kelce’s average. Let that sink in a minute…So Kelce caught just about everything thrown his way, and he was dynamic after the catch or down the field, even though Smith didn’t throw long nearly enough.Reid eased Kelce into the lineup to start the year, as it took until the second half of the season for Kelce to overtake the mediocre Anthony Fasano (since released) in snaps. Kelce played on 81% of the snaps in the second half of the year after playing 51% in the first half. With Fasano and WR Donnie Avery gone, the Chiefs are in dire need of help in their receiving corps, so they would be foolish not to feature Kelce in 2015. If you have a chance to get Kelce now, do it because he’ll only be getting more expensive.
Tyler Eifert (TE, Cin) – Eifert played just one game in 2014, catching 3 passes for 37 yards before a gruesome elbow injury ended his season. When it became evident that Eifert’s elbow wouldn’t let him return in 2014, he also had a nagging shoulder injury from training camp cleaned up with a December surgery. Eifert is expected to be ready for training camp, and he’ll be expected to contribute in a big way in 2015, especially since Jermaine Gresham is a free agent and the team doesn’t seem too keen on bringing him back. While Eifert’s essentially lost a full year of development and he didn’t exactly dominate in his rookie 2013 season, he’s still a bit of an unknown and that may keep his value low. Remember, he was a first-round pick just two years ago, so what we have in Eifert is a first-round talent in a solid offense and with a larger role waiting for him. It’s true he’s yet to really do anything, but that fact should make his asking price reasonable.
Richard Rodgers (TE, GB) – Rodgers had a little buzz heading into the 2014 season after working with the first-team offense in some off-season workouts, but he ended up getting just five starts while appearing in every game and saw just 28 targets. While he averaged just 45% of the snaps per game, that number was trending up by the end of the year, with 50% of the snaps in the second half of the season after averaging 41% in the first half. While Rodgers ended up rotating with Andrew Quarless, Quarless has been with the organization for five years and has yet to make a significant impact, so we’re pretty sure Rodgers will get more chances in 2015, especially since Quarless is in a contract year. Rodgers isn’t a particularly gifted player, but he has decent size at 6’4’’, 257 pounds and could have some value playing in this offense if he became the top TE in 2015. According to his QB, Rodgers has some of the best hands on the team, and he should be a lot more comfortable in the offense in his second season (we really didn’t expect much last year). If Randall Cobb doesn’t re-sign with the Packers, Rodgers could get an even bigger bump in the passing game and could quickly step into a role that makes him the third option in this great passing game.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, Hou) – An intriguing rookie out of Iowa, Fiedorowicz was a third-round pick last year for TE-friendly HC Bill O’Brien, who openly acknowledged that the rookie reminded him of Rob Gronkowski on tape. Now obviously, we didn’t take that comparison at face value, since reminders do not automatically equal similar quality. Fiedorowicz may have disappointed even with lowered expectations, with just 4/28/1 receiving as a rookie. But did anyone else do anything here in 2014 at the TE position? He probably has a better shot to contribute in 2015 than Ryan Griffin (10/91/1), so while he still has something to prove, the door opened up a little wider when the Texans decided to part ways with Andre Johnson in March. That leaves a gaping hole in the passing game, so there are plenty of targets to be had if Fiedorowicz can step up in his second season. His blocking is strong, but he also has enough receiving ability to eventually develop into an actively-targeted player.
Jace Amaro (TE, NYJ) – We didn’t have high hopes for Amaro in his first season because rookie TEs tend to struggle, and the Jets didn’t look like a very good team. While Amaro averaged just 39% of snaps per game compared to Jeff Cumberland’s 84% average and played 14 games (4 starts) to Cumberland’s 16 games (14 starts), Amaro was the team’s top TE and that wasn’t exactly expected. He posted 38/345/2 (9.1 YPC) on 51 targets (74.5% catch rate) to finish 27th at the TE position with 6.5 FPG. Considering the terrible QB situation, we’re not disappointed with Amaro, but we’re expecting a step forward in his second season. It’s a new regime, but the team is short on talent, so you’d have to think Amaro gets more chances, especially with prototypical TE size at 6’5’’, 265 pounds. Because his situation isn’t great, it shouldn’t cost you much to acquire a player with upside. Long-term, while he was a receiving specialist at the end of his college career, Amaro told us last year that he blocked a lot earlier in his career and we do believe he can be a complete TE like Jason Witten (whom Amaro compared himself to when we spoke with him in 2014).
Zach Ertz (TE, Phi) – We love Ertz’s natural ability, but as we saw in 2014, other options in the Eagle offense limited his fantasy upside. In addition to the other options, Ertz just isn’t as good a blocker as TE Brent Celek, and that kept him off the field far too often. On the year, Ertz played just 50% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps, bottoming out at 26% in Week Thirteen. Just three times all year did Ertz play more snaps than Celek, and it’s hard to truly break out when you’re the #2 TE on your own team. Soon, we expect that to change because Ertz is too gifted a receiver and Jeremy Maclin remains a free agent, so this is the time to get him. Some may be frustrated with the slow start to Ertz’s career, and those are the ones who are mostly likely to sell him on the cheap. Let’s not forget that early on in 2014, Ertz kind of looked like “the guy” in the passing game, even over Maclin at times.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, TB) – We believed Seferian-Jenkins could be a reliable but not spectacular TE prospect coming out of the draft, and the Buccaneers looked like an even better destination when Tim Wright was traded away before the start of the regular season. Like many rookie TEs, ASJ struggled, but he also had his season ruined by injuries and struggles at the QB position, as well as a generally poor offense. Foot and back injuries cost him seven games, but he actually still managed to be more productive on a per-game basis than any other rookie TE (which is not saying much). More of an “old school” TE type, Seferian-Jenkins prides himself on both his blocking and receiving, while noting he isn’t as athletic as the Julius Thomas types of the world. He should benefit from a full off-season of work under a real offensive coordinator, this time Dirk Koetter, who has coached Tony Gonzalez and Marcedes Lewis in recent years. We don’t foresee ASJ having many big games, but we know for a fact that they were VERY happy with him in the preseason. He should be able to develop into a reliable fantasy option in years to come, and there are not many guys like that around anymore.
Jordan Reed (TE, Was) – Reed’s stock should be on the rise, but instead he’s still trying to prove he’s reliable enough to stay on the field. Reed was a very intriguing prospect as a rookie in 2013, but concussion issues derailed his chances of truly breaking out. We hoped he’d be able to do more in 2014, but the injury bug was a problem yet again, but this time, it was nagging hamstring issues. Reed has proven in his two-year career that he’ll catch pretty much everything that’s thrown his way – 76.3% catch rate in 2013, 76.9% in 2014 – but his YPT dipped from 8.46 in 2013 to 7.15 in 2014. The talent is certainly there, and the QB situation can’t be much worse than it was last year, so we’re hoping for a true break-out season from Reed. Because of the injury concerns, he shouldn’t cost much, so he should come as a low-risk, high-reward option heading into 2015.
Luke Willson (TE, Sea) – You can forget about how the Seahawks misused Zach Miller because they have their TE of the present and future in Willson, as long as they realize how helpful he can be to a receiving corps that’s among the worst in the league. We know he was asked to do a little more than expected when Miller went down last year, so we’re willing to forgive the drops and mistakes, but he also flashed enough to prove his talent is evident and that he should still be considered their TE of the future. We’d expect him to be atop the depth chart heading into 2015, and we’d hope that means he’s able to spend the off-season preparing for a bigger role with more opportunities to work with QB Russell Wilson and the rest of the starters. It’s hard to get too excited about any TE in such a run-heavy offense, so Willson shouldn’t cost you much and wouldn’t have to be a big risk to take on going forward.
Players to Trade:
Peyton Manning (QB, Den) – Well, duh. What kind of shape are you in on your dynasty team? Are you really going to contend in 2015, or are you more likely to build for the future? If you’re the latter, you should move Peyton immediately. And if you have a very good young QB under Peyton (say, Ryan Tannehill) and you still think you can contend, you might think about moving Peyton anyway. Obviously, Peyton will be back in Denver this year and we expect him to be a big contributor. But injuries to his quad took their toll late in 2014, when his play seriously slipped in the last month or so of the season. While Peyton should be healthy for camp, he’ll be 39 in late March, and he needs to produce elite numbers to bring a return on what the likely investment in him would cost. That will be harder for him if they lose Julius Thomas, and for what it’s worth Wes Welker is likely gone already. If you can get a no-doubt weekly starter at just about any other position for Peyton and you can replace him with a solid option, we’d bite now.
Drew Brees (QB, NO) – Brees is coming off his worst fantasy season since 2010 (24.5 FPG), and while he was still generally an elite producer for the position, there were major reasons to be concerned. First of all, he looked a little more jittery in the pocket, with clearly waning arm strength. For the bigger picture, the Saints are in salary cap hell and could be looking at a stripped-down roster next year. Yes, Brees will at least still have Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks. And although he seems likely to play longer than just this next season, which separates him from Peyton Manning, Brees’ production the last couple of seasons has been generally a little worse than Manning’s. On top of that, his supporting cast is likely to be weaker in 2015. If you have a suitable replacement, this may be your last chance to move him for a high-impact player elsewhere.
Tony Romo (QB, Dal) – Romo deserves plenty of praise for his performance in 2014, but sometimes fantasy doesn’t match up with reality, and that’s been the story of Romo’s career. For most of his career, the success he had as one of the most reliable fantasy starters didn’t result in the Cowboys’ having much success in reality, but as we saw last year, the Cowboys were able to win the division and Romo wasn’t a fantasy juggernaut. In fact, Romo’s tie for 11th in FPG was his lowest ranking since taking over the starting job in 2006. He scored 21.8 FPG, which was his third-best season ever, but with the gaudy numbers QBs have been putting up, Romo’s standing among other QBs has fallen. Joe Flacco has rarely had much fantasy value, but he was just 1.4 FPG behind Romo last season, so Romo is much closer to backups than he is the top fantasy QBs. He completed about 70% of his passes, but he had just 3705 yards, which is his lowest total in a season with at least 13 starts, other than the 3448 yards he had in 2008. The Cowboys relied heavily on their ground game and it worked, but that also meant less reliance on Romo and therefore a drop in attempts and yards. While we worry about Romo’s fantasy value due to a lack of volume, his back issues are certainly a problem, as Romo enters his 13th season at 35-years-old. Romo may have finished 2014 as a top-12 fantasy option, but he’s trending in the wrong direction, so it may be time to move on from him if he brings you younger building blocks.
DeMarco Murray (RB, Dal) – Other than a hand injury that didn’t keep him out of action, Murray was able to get through 2014 to play 16 games for the first time in his four-year career, and he did that with an astounding 393 carries and 64 targets. As he hits free agency, the Cowboys, as we’re sure many interested teams are wondering; can Murray be trusted to get through another full season with high production after such a heavy workload in 2014? But that shouldn’t be the only question about Murray going forward. If he’s not back in Dallas, will he have another great offensive line to run behind for his next team? Whether it’s with Dallas or some other team, will Murray get the same kind of workload? Obviously, 393 carries is way too much to handle on a yearly basis, but what if Murray’s role in the passing game is diminished? He may be just 27-years-old, but considering his injury issues, Murray’s 2015 team will look to find ways to keep him fresh and as a result, his fantasy value could take a hit. As we’ve seen with many RBs in recent years, the drop-off can happen quickly and expectations can’t be too high after a career year. Murray’s fantasy value may never be higher than it was in 2014, so if he can bring you in a nice haul, it might be time to get off the bandwagon early instead of being too late.
Arian Foster (RB, Hou) – Foster remains a dominant fantasy player when he’s on the field. But Foster played in only 13 games in 2014, missing Week Three (hamstring), Weeks Eleven and Twelve (groin), and then most of Week Seventeen (knee). Foster seems destined to spend the rest of his days in the NFL as a player who’s as big of a threat to miss time as there is in the league. He finished with 260/1246/8 rushing, averaging 4.8 YPC, and 38/237/5 receiving on 59 targets (64.4%). Foster will enter his age 29 season in 2015 with a ton of wear and tear on his body, and HC Bill O’Brien has talked this year about pulling back on his usage next season. Foster is also certain to miss games this season, as he’s played a full 16-game season just once in the last four year, so he’s going to be a fantasy headache once again. We’d expect Foster to be quite active once again in 2015, but he’s never a guarantee to stay on the field, and now the Texans could look to manage him. Another potential issue is the situation with top wideout Andre Johnson, who could be gone in 2015 and will leave a gaping hole in their passing offense. If you can get a haul for Foster or at least some young, intriguing players for him, it may be time to pull the trigger on a trade.
Andre Ellington (RB, Ari) – HC Bruce Arians ran his second-year RB into the ground before Ellington eventually broke down in Week Thirteen. We like Ellington a lot, and so do the Cardinals, but they seem intent on acquiring a bigger foundation back this off-season, moving Ellington to more of a complementary role. Ellington wasn’t quite the same big-play threat that we saw in 2013 because he played with a partially torn tendon in his foot, which was discovered just before their season opener. His season eventually ended because of a sports hernia surgery, but he didn’t need foot surgery and was already running again in January. Ellington posted very similar yardage totals in 2013 (1,023) compared to 2014 (1,055), but he needed only 157 touches in 2013 (6.5 YPT) compared to 247 in 2014 (4.3 YPT), which shows that he didn’t have the same quickness or burst that he had as a rookie. Ellington stayed on the field a ton when he was healthy, playing on 71% of the snaps, but Arians didn’t seem to trust Ellington’s backup Stepfan Taylor too much, which led to Ellington’s heavy workload. We have to worry about Ellington’s durability after two major injuries and his small frame (5’9”, 199 pounds), while Arians said after the season that he “learned a lesson about putting too many eggs in one basket.” We’d expect the Cards to draft or sign a running back this off-season to take some of the burden off Ellington.
Devonta Freeman (RB, Atl) – While he’s potentially primed for a break-out year, calling Freeman a “buy low” guy may be a mistake now. We did have him on the list above previously, but after the release of Steven Jackson, he’s the only legitimate RB left on the Atlanta roster. Acquiring him (or moving him) is strictly conditional right now. If you can pick him up for a spare part or a draft pick you won’t miss, we’d make the move because we still love Freeman’s talent, and as we stand now, the opportunity is clearly there for him. But you can also argue that Freeman’s perceived value is higher now than it will ever be, given the lack of competition currently on the roster. If the Falcons add a talented back in free agency or the draft (it’s a deep class for both), Freeman’s value dips, and that may be the best time to trade for him. So if you’re trading for him, it may be most prudent to wait for free agency and the draft. If you’re looking to move him for an upgrade elsewhere, now may be the best time. We do have questions about Freeman’s ability to hold up and produce as the true lead back in Atlanta. He’s tough and physical, but we’re not sure he’s strong and powerful enough to be a 275+ touch guy. It was also a little disconcerting that he couldn’t carve out a larger role on the Falcons as a rookie in 2014. Should the Falcons add a RB of note in free agency or the draft, Freeman’s value will take a hit.
Joique Bell (RB, Det) – With Reggie Bush cut by the Lions, the obvious fantasy bump goes to Bell, especially after he was their top fantasy back the last two seasons. While Bell was way more up-and-down in 2013, depending on how and when Bush played, Bell played a more consistent role in 2014, hitting double-digit FP in all but five games of his 15 games. That kind of consistency is hard to come by these days and was enough to tie Bell for 16th, with 13.3 FPG. However, a deeper look at the numbers shows a rise in carries in each of his first three seasons from 82 in 2012 to 166 in 2013 to 223 in 2014, yet his YPC went from 5 to 3.9 the last two years, and his FPG dropped from 13.8 in 2013 to 13.3. Bell is under contract through 2016, but HE will be 29 in August and had minor procedures to on his knee and Achilles following the 2014 season, so there are some signs of wearing down at an older age as he continues to get more touches. We’d also fully expect the Lions to address the position via free agency and/or the draft. Plus, they have Theo Riddick to take over some of the receiving duties. Bell has been able to find some fantasy relevance over the last two seasons without being close to dominant, so while he has value, it’s hard to see his being any better than we’ve seen already.
Dan Herron (RB, Ind) – Look, Herron obviously was a huge asset down the stretch for both fantasy players and the Colts, as he managed to wash away some of the Trent Richardson stink and bail Indy out of the Ahmad Bradshaw injury situation. But he was a player with a big role out of purenecessity. While those guys can be big-time fantasy producers in the short-term, especially at running back, teams ultimately look to upgrade on them. Herron has some giddy-up to him, but he doesn’t have a ton of functional strength and had some major ball-security issues. We’d bet dollars to donuts that the Colts will add a more talented player or two to this backfield, with such a strong free-agent and draft class. Herron should have earned a spot on the team, but an active role is no guarantee.
Mike Wallace (WR, Mia) – The brash Wallace and the Dolphin organization have been butting heads ever since the season finale, when he either asked to be taken out or HC Joe Philbin benched him. The Dolphins have been not so quietly exploring their options with Wallace, looking to cut him, trade him, or stick with him. Wallace had his best season since his Steeler days in 2011, as he finished with 67 catches on 114 targets (58.8% catch rate) for 862 yards and 10 TDs. Wallace has never been the easiest teammate to play with, and he doesn’t accept being the #2 WR very well, as the Steelers couldn’t wait to get him away from Antonio Brown. Rookie WR Jarvis Landry vaulted ahead of Wallace in the passing game pecking order by the end of the season, so it’s fair to wonder if Wallace can handle a slightly smaller role, especially if Tannehill doesn’t improve on his deep throws. Ultimately, Wallace will probably be on the Miami roster in 2015, and he’s still a unique player whose movement ability is a major challenge for any defense. However, he’s still a limited route-runner and a ticking time bomb, plus it’s hardly a guarantee that Tannehill can suddenly find a way to get him the ball deep. Wallace’s perceived value has likely taken a hit this off-season, so we wouldn’t give him away. But if you can get solid value, we’re okay with moving him.
Greg Olsen (TE, Car) – Olsen set TE franchise and career records for the third straight season, finishing with 84 catches on 122 targets (68.9% catch rate) for 1008 yards (12.0 YPC) and 6 TDs. It’s fair to wonder if Olsen is due for some regression in 2015, especially if the Panthers address the WR position this off-season. QB Cam Newton heavily targeted Olsen and rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin in this passing game, as the two combined for 48.8% of the pass attempts (266/545) from Panther QBs. Olsen also came up small in the final two weeks of the regular season (3/48), and he posted just 7/95 in their two playoff games. Olsen, who will turn 30 years old in March, did tail off a bit at the end of the year, but he was still among the best fantasy options at TE. Olsen should take a step back next season if Benjamin improves and the Panthers upgrade their #2 WR, which is likely, so Olsen’s value is likely to go down in 2015. We do realize it’s hard to spare a productive TE in this day and age, so it might make sense for you to hang onto him. However, we’re isolating players whose values should be
FantasyGuru.com’s Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley contributed to this report
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