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OFF-SEASON REPORT #6
Published Online, March 27, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #6: Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Player Movement Tracker - 3/27
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 3/27
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
The Stock Watch - 3/20
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Depth Charts - 3/18
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Preview - 2/2
SOS Adjusted RB Non-PPR Scores 2014 - 1/29
SOS Adjusted QB Scores for 2014 - 1/22

UP NEXT:

2015 Player Movement Tracker - We're still tracking all the moves and will continually update each day as free agency continues

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2015 Pre-Draft Rookie Report

Published, 3/27/15

The NFL draft season is officially upon us, but we’ve been in serious information-gathering mode for months now. Our Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley watch a lot of college football each fall, and they've studied plenty of tape. But we also lean heavily on our friends and sources around the league who not only watch more college football than we do, but they also closely scrutinize these pending rookies’ college tape.

While we’re a fantasy site and these players’ worth in our world won’t be clear until after the draft, we always like to focus on the players themselves and their long-term outlooks, irrespective of their new NFL teams, which is another way of saying we like to stack these guys against each other based almost entirely on talent and their potential as they transition to the pros.

In years past, we would rank the players for the upcoming season pre-draft to help readers get familiar with how the players stack up in terms of skill sets, durability, intangibles, etc. We’re still offering up rankings of the players before the draft, but in addition to focusing more on their long-term potential by ranking them for the next 2-3 years at least, this year we’re also breaking the players up into tiers in an effort to offer even more insight into how they project to the NFL and the fantasy world and how they compared against each other.

Once the draft takes place, then it will be a lot easier to rank the players for the 2015 season – and we will. Of course, we’ll also reset our long-term outlooks and re-rank the players for keeper and dynasty leagues.

Note: We’ll also likely tweak these rankings and tiers at least once from this report’s initial release on March 27^th until the draft, since our Greg Cosell is still studying the coach’s tapes of this year’s class.

Quarterbacks

Note: These players are ranked more so for their long-term value and potential, so these rankings aren’t for just 2015. Once the draft takes place, we’ll rank all rookies for both this year and the long-term.

Potential Franchise Players

1. Marcus Mariota

School: Oregon | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 222 | 40: 4.52 | Year: 4Jr

This is an obvious statement to make about any player a team drafts, but it’s especially true with Mariota – you have got to have a plan for him. Coming from Oregon’s wide-open offense (head coach Mark Helfrich still runs the Chip Kelly offense), Mariota will likely need some time to transition into a traditional NFL attack. But the question is this: If drafting the reigning Heisman winner Mariota, ostensibly spending a high pick on him, why try to squeeze him into such a narrow hole? Mariota exhibits an exceptional knowledge of Xs and Os, and on occasion at Oregon has stared down the gun barrel and gone through progressions. He just wasn’t asked to do that much, and he requires some projecting for an NFL offense. But what Mariota does exhibit is exceptional mobility and playmaking ability, solid decision-making, and an arm that isn’t a laser but is very functional. Mariota also has a reputation as a strong leader and all-around high-quality individual, important for a team looking for a face of the franchise (although, apparently, some teams are worried he’s too “meek”). For fantasy, we love that Mariota tested extremely well at the combine, matching what we saw on his tape from Oregon. Mariota has a second gear as a runner, and we’d expect any team that drafts him to employ at least some zone-read concepts in its playbook. If not, Mariota will be misused. Mariota will need some seasoning to throw more consistently into NFL windows, and ironically he’s not as good a thrower on the run as Jameis Winston, who overall is far less mobile than Mariota. He’ll also have to cut down on some of the “Manziel-y” plays he made in college, most notably throwing across his body and trying to make plays across the field. But overall, Mariota is a very good thrower with exceptional mobility, but also is a big body who occasionally exhibited the ability to stand tall in the pocket and go through his progressions, on the rare instances the Oregon offense asked him to do so. He doesn’t project as well into an NFL offense as Winston, which is why he’s generally regarded as the #2 QB in this class, and may fall down draft boards. But his skills are fantasy-friendly, and even the 5% chance or so that he still winds up with Philadelphia is enough to drool about Mariota’s potential to put up numbers.

2. Jameis Winston

School: Florida State | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 231 | 40: 4.97 | Year: 3So

In this day and age of the NFL, given its myriad serious problems regarding women, Winston’s off-field concerns are likely the first thing to come up in team draft meetings. In his short time at Florida State, Winston was accused of, although never formally charged with, rape. While the case never saw a courtroom, there’s absolutely no doubt it has made him persona non grata on multiple draft boards. Winston had multiple other incidents as well, including stealing crab legs from a grocery store and yelling vulgarities toward women in a Florida State cafeteria, an act that led to a suspension. Given this list of red flags, Winston’s interviews with teams over the pre-draft process have and will continue to be crucial toward determining where he plays his football. And let’s make this clear: Winston has every right to put on an NFL jersey, just as NFL teams have the right to completely remove him from their draft boards altogether. On the field, Winston will tantalize with his physical skills and experience in coach Jimbo Fisher’s pro-style offense. He’s the most talented pure thrower in this class, and Winston was asked to make NFL throws on a consistent basis at Florida State. While there are slow elements to his delivery and shaky footwork in the pocket (which he is working on), Winston is a gifted pocket passer who stands tough with bodies in his face and tries to extend plays within that pocket. While he doesn’t have great timed speed or the mobility of Marcus Mariota, he’s also a very good thrower on the run (more accurate on film than Mariota, actually). And because of the pro-style nature of his offense, Winston made tight-window anticipation throws more than any passer in this class. That’s not to say Winston is a perfect on-field prospect. He threw 18 INTs as a sophomore in 2014, 8 more than in his Heisman-winning freshman campaign, which is a ton for such a highly rated passer. He also threw 25 TDs in 2014, compared to 40 in 2013. While Winston exhibits pocket toughness, his decision-making also breaks down under pressure, and he tries to force too many throws. Winston was asked to do more in terms of progression reading in 2014, but it coincided with a drop-off in stats. He also has a tendency to re-cock his delivery once he gets set to throw, an issue that could lead to more turnovers in the NFL. These are all things teams must consider when spending a pick on Winston. As of publication, it seems that Tampa Bay, with the #1 overall pick, has vetted the in-state prospect extensively. If Winston lands with the Bucs, he’ll have two huge receivers and an excellent coordinator fit in Dirk Koetter. But even if he checked out well in interviews, Winston’s off-field issues should and will continue to be a concern for whatever team drafts him. Even a hint that Winston’s behavior slips up, especially toward women, could mark the end of his chance in the NFL.

Long-Term Projects

3. Bryce Petty

School: Baylor | Ht: 6’3” | Wt: 230 | 40: 4.87 | Year: 5Sr

As is often the case with underclassman QBs who put up huge numbers, there was talk for quite a bit of time about Petty as a potential first-round pick and franchise QB. But the longer he stayed at Baylor, the more Petty’s warts showed. Let’s get to the positives first – Petty is big at 6’3” and 230 pounds, and he’s incredibly athletic for his size, consistently picking up yardage on the ground. Both on film and at the Combine, Petty flashed plus arm strength, with the physical tools to make “NFL throws.” And in 845 college pass attempts, Petty had just 10 INTs to 62 TDs, a miniscule 1.2% interception rate. He just didn’t make mistakes in Art Briles’ spread offense. But therein lies the issue with Petty – the struggles of Robert Griffin III to transition to a consistent NFL QB coming out of Baylor will hinder Petty’s stock in the eyes of many evaluators, and Petty’s not nearly as physically gifted as Griffin. And while Griffin’s struggles can largely be attributed to injuries at the pro level, Petty’s medical report is long as well – he’s had two ACL injuries, back injuries, and multiple concussions in his career. In Baylor’s offense, Petty ran pretty much exclusively out of the shotgun. On film, he’s been skittish under pressure, and when pressured, his ball placement becomes even more erratic than it already is. Mechanically, Petty is a mess, a point he’s pretty much acknowledged (and he did look improved in that department at the Combine). Petty holds the ball way too long in the pocket, and needs throws easily defined for him in order to pull the trigger. That’s one of the reasons he didn’t throw too many picks in college, actually – Petty never threw with anticipation, and was far more likely to take a sack than uncork a difficult throw. There’s a thin line between that being a negative and being a positive, but too often Petty didn’t pull the trigger on throws that were there. Petty was productive in college and won a lot of games at Baylor, but this is a guy who needs a ton of work to be a starter in the NFL.

4. Brett Hundley

School: UCLA | Ht: 6’3” | Wt: 226 | 40: 4.63 | Year: 4Jr

While it ultimately may not matter in the long run, considering how much work both of these guys need, we had a long internal debate about whether to rank Hundley or Bryce Petty higher in this pre-draft report. Ultimately, we settled with Petty simply because he was a better college player, and we can’t recall the last successful NFL QB who wasn’t a particularly good college player despite constant opportunities. Now Hundley put up stats – he threw for nearly 10,000 yards and ran for 1700 more at UCLA as a three-year starter. He had 75 TDs to 25 INTs, so not as positive a ratio as Petty but still very good overall. However, Hundley’s valleys were far lower than Petty’s, and it’s because he appeared totally incapable of handling pressure. Physically, he’s a specimen – 6’3” and 226 pounds, with elite measurables for his position, including incredible agility drills and monster hands. Hundley has a good release, strong arm, and – unlike Petty – was willing to challenge defenders with 50/50 throws. But Hundley’s experience reading defenses is about nil, and his handling of pressure was awful in college. When pressed with a situation in which he needed to check off his first read, Hundley often broke down. If he didn’t take a sack, his accuracy would collapse, and it would lead to stalled drives. Hundley indeed will take a ton of sacks, and while he shows the willingness to stick in the pocket, it’s more indecisiveness rather than truly staring down the gun barrel and making stick throws. Hundley’s feet were a mess even in a clean pocket, which is a huge problem when projecting him to the next level. And he has about no experience under center, despite starting for three years. Yet another guy who was touted as a first-round talent last season, Hundley didn’t show nearly enough progress on tape to be the slam-dunk high pick many had projected for him some time ago. His physical tools are off the charts, but he’s a raw project who needs to sit. In this way, he compares to EJ Manuel, and we see how playing Manuel early has worked out for Buffalo to this point.

5. Brandon Bridge

School: South Alabama | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 229 | 40: 4.72 | Year: 5Sr

We just talked about the dangers of projecting a player too early in his college career, as the stars of Bryce Petty and Brett Hundley dimmed with more tape to their names. Bridge is more of an unknown – he’s attempted only 373 passes in his college career and was a starter for just one year at South Alabama. Statistically, his numbers don’t stand out at all – he completed 52.1% of his passes in 2014, with 15 TDs and 8 INTs. So what we’re dealing with here is a total project. Bridge is huge, at 6’4” and 229 pounds, though he has really small hands for his size. But this guy can move (4.72 40), and he absolutely can spin it – he has a cannon arm that he often put on display. At South Alabama, Bridge’s level of competition was extremely low, and he didn’t exactly play with any future stars, either. So we had to watch his tape through a different lens than we did with any of the other top QB prospects. But what we saw will certainly intrigue NFL teams. Bridge has a very quick release with a strong arm, he makes deep throws look easy, and he showed some next-level QB traits. Most important, he made some anticipation throws and occasionally would move defenders with his eyes, a trait we saw more from him than from a guy like Hundley. Bridge at times will react to pressure, which causes him to break down and become erratic in the pocket, but he also isn’t scared of getting hit and will stare down the gun barrel. Bridge needs a ton of work, especially in terms of making decisions and accuracy, but there’s a lot to work with here. The hope for NFL coaches is that his relative inexperience compared to other prospects in this draft may actually make him more “moldable” and coachable because there are some NFL traits here.

6. Blake Sims

School: Alabama | Ht: 5’11” | Wt: 218 | 40: 4.57 | Year: 5Sr

Sims is very much the opposite of the other players in this “project” category. First of all, it’s easy to notice on tape that he’s a different player – at the Combine, he measured in at 5’11” and 218 pounds, built like a running back (which makes sense because he used to be one). And Sims put up numbers against elite SEC competition while playing in Lane Kiffin’s pro-style offense, which clearly will help his transition to the next level. In 2014, he threw for 3487 yards with a 28/10 TD/INT ratio, while also adding 83/350/7 on the ground (and remember, in college that includes yardage lost on sacks). On the positive end, Sims was a quick thinker who made good decisions and could handle pressure. His former RB skills made him tough to bring down in the pocket, but he constantly kept his eyes focused downfield, where he looked to make plays with his arm. Sims clearly made progress as a pocket passer, looking better than many anticipated in that area, given his limited experience. Sims exhibits strong traits as a leader, taking Alabama to the College Football Playoff, but he struggled there against a very good Ohio State defense. Teams that love Sims are almost certain to liken him to Russell Wilson, but Sims simply isn’t as good a thrower as Wilson. He has an adequate arm, but he has small hands (which may make accuracy an issue), and lacks Wilson’s experience. There are some good things to work with here (especially for fantasy in the event he plays), but Sims’ size, lack of experience, and the relative failures of Alabama QBs in the pros may make him a late-round pick who needs to impress in training camp.

NFL Backups

7. Garrett Grayson

School: Colorado State | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 213 | 40: N/A | Year: 5Sr

Grayson is going to get drafted, and he’s got a shot to stick in the NFL for quite some time. Let’s just get that out of the way quickly. Playing under coachJim McElwain (former OC at Alabama/now HC at Florida), Grayson put up great numbers the last two years, throwing for nearly 8000 yards with 55 TDs and 18 INTs, while being asked to make multiple kinds of throws. With big hands and a decent frame (6’2”, 213 pounds), Grayson looks the part of a solid pocket passer, and his film backs that up. He had a decent arm and consistently made anticipation throws, more than almost every other passer in this class. He’s a quick decision maker and can calmly progress through multiple reads, while also exhibiting poise in the pocket. But Grayson isslllooooooow in every sense of the word. He has a “hitchy” delivery with slow feet and a long windup, reminiscent of Byron Leftwich, without the top-end arm strength. Nor is he a great athlete – he didn’t run or throw at the Combine because of a hamstring injury, but suffice it to say we wouldn’t have been blown away with his measurables. Mentally, Grayson can play the part of a long-term NFL backup whom coaches value for his ability to soak up an offense and make good decisions. But his physical limitations will likely prevent him from ever being any more than a Brian Hoyer-type of journeyman, who might get a stint or two as a starter but will never be considered in the upper echelon of NFL QBs.

8. Sean Mannion

School: Oregon State | Ht: 6’6” | Wt: 229 | 40: 5.14 | Year: 5Sr

There’s one major element of Mannion’s tape that stands out – Mannion himself. He’s huge, at 6’6” and 229 pounds. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he moves exactly like you’d expect a huge QB to move, which is not at all. Mannion is a statue in the pocket, if only because he lacks the ability to get outside of it. Mannion falls away from throws when pressured and lacks great in-pocket footwork, which means he gets hit a ton. While his arm is adequate, he doesn’t have elite zip, which means he will have major accuracy issues when bodies are around him. Mannion was a four-year starter under former Oregon State and Charger coach Mike Riley, so he has experience in a pro-style offense and will make multiple reads, which is likely to be the most positive thing NFL teams will see in him other than his size. But Mannion also threw 54 picks in four seasons, in large part because his accuracy would fall apart, given his tendency to throw without setting his feet. Mannion also has small hands, a surprise given his height, and tends to work too slowly. On film, he looks like a combination of Mike Glennon and Nick Foles, without the arm strength or accuracy of either. He’s likely to stick in the league as a backup, given his pro-style experience.

9. Hutson Mason

School: Georgia | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 207 | 40: N/A | Year: 5Sr

Mason got one season as a starter for Mark Richt, who operates a pro-style attack and has put Matthew Stafford and Aaron Murray in the NFL in recent seasons. And in terms of executing the mental aspects of the offense, Mason did a really good job. He consistently made good decisions, which is all Richt asks for. It led to Mason completing 68% of his passes with 21 TDs and just 4 INTs in his senior season at Georgia. Extremely accurate, Mason calmly went through his progressions and understood where the ball was supposed to go. If he didn’t have a throw, he threw the ball away and played another down. But that brings to mind the two biggest negatives about Mason. He’s 6’2”, but he looks like a “small” 207 pounds, with a really thin frame that likely can’t take a whole lot of damage. And Mason’s arm is decidedly below average. He doesn’t have the zip to fit the ball into tight windows consistently, and his deep balls look like they have helium in them. Mason has the mental wherewithal to be a long-term backup in the NFL, but if pressed into more than a short stint of action, his limitations would jump off the page before long.

10. Bryan Bennett

School: Southeastern Louisiana | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 211 | 40: 4.81 | Year: 5Sr

This #10 spot was hard to fill, simply because at this point on the list every QB is seriously flawed, but has some positive traits we could at least grasp onto in the event of a “best-case scenario” situation. So we looked at this as a “fantasy” spot, and we determined that Bennett looks like someone who could be a fantasy asset if everything goes right. Transferring to Southeastern Louisiana after losing out to Marcus Mariota at Oregon, Bennett flashed some of the ability we look for in a fantasy QB – namely, he extends plays with his legs and has adequate arm talent to go with it. He tested extremely well in agility drills at the Combine, which backs up his game film. He’s a “mini Mariota” for a team that’s going to allow him to play his style of game, and he likely will be a late-round pick at best and will need to sit for some time. This is a guy who completed just 49.5% of his passes in 2014, after 60.7% as a junior in 2013, so you can see the warts on the stat sheet. A good athlete both inside and outside the pocket, Bennett absolutely must improve as a thrower, where he’s erratic and inaccurate. Bennett gets jittery feet under pressure, and he has a side-arm delivery that can lead to too many balls batted down. But he does have skill to work with.

Running Backs

Potential Franchise Backs

1. Todd Gurley

School: Georgia | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 222 | 40: N/A | Year: 3Jr

Let’s establish something immediately: If Gurley wasn’t coming off a torn ACL suffered in November, there would be absolutely no question about it – he’s the best RB prospect in the draft. Obviously, that’s a big if, considering Gurley did get hurt and wasn’t able to work out at the Combine. The injuries alone will be what sink his draft stock, if at all. Before the 2014 ACL tear, he lost three games to an ankle injury in 2013, and also he missed time with an NCAA rules suspension. That means Gurley played a combined 30 games in his three years at Georgia, out of a possible 40. An incredibly optimistic scout may suggest that this simply means Gurley is coming into the NFL fresh, assuming his knee checks out, as he’s taken fewer hits. We can speculate on the knee all we want, but Gurley is still incredibly young and plans to be ready by training camp. If teams feel that way, then what are they getting? Well, they’re getting a Mack truck who is an incredible athlete for his size. Gurley has the lateral agility of a smaller back and the power you’d expect from someone of his size. Gurley is just as likely to win with a jump cut as he is with a stiff arm, and he trusts his speed in the open field, where he rarely looks to cut back if he doesn’t need to. A former track athlete who ran hurdles for the national team, Gurley also has experience as a kick returner. A productive receiver and willing blocker, Gurley projects as a true three-down back at the next level. And perhaps most important for a team looking for a foundation back, he got stronger as games went on and defenses wore down. Gurley posted 3900 yards from scrimmage in his 30 career college games, an average of 130 per game. He scored 42 TDs, and posted 65 receptions over that time as well. And he did all of this against SEC competition. There’s no back in this class who is as scheme-versatile as Gurley, as he improved his vision considerably in 2014 before going down. That vision and vertical burst will make him an excellent zone scheme fit, while his natural power will give him value as a gap runner. We won’t bring out the dreaded comparison that we made with the ill-fated Trent Richardson three years ago, but a healthy Gurley is the best prospect we’ve seen in years at the position. ACLs just don’t scare us as much as they used to, especially for a younger player. But if the knee scares RB-needy teams away early in the draft, some other team will be getting a value in the late 1^st round.

2. Jay Ajayi

School: Boise State | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 221 | 40: 4.57 | Year: 4Jr

While we like to watch draft prospects and pick out our favorites as much as the next guy, ultimately we still operate a fantasy football site and have to try to project what these guys may be statistically as soon as this year. That’s why we’re particularly fond of Ajayi. With such a diverse group of backs in this draft class, one term you’re going to be hearing a lot is “three-down back.” And Ajayi is clearly that – few backs were as productive and natural a receiver as Ajayi in this class, as he posted 73/771/5 in his three-year career, including 50/535/4 (10.7 YPC) in 2014. And in terms of handling all three downs? Well, Ajayi’s done that in spades, with 678 carries in three years, including a ridiculous 347 in 2014. That gave Ajayi 397 touches in 14 games this past season, an average of 28.4 per game, more than DeMarco Murray’s 27.7 touches per game in 18 games with the Cowboys last year. So while he’s the most proven three-down player in this draft, he’s also taken quite a few hits. Moreover, he has a torn ACL on his resume, but that happened in 2011 and is ostensibly past him (as is a shoplifting arrest from the same year). So let’s look at the type of player he is. Ajayi has a big back’s frame, but he plays more like a smaller back, with jump cuts, light feet, and incredible contact balance, thanks to a very wide base. Ajayi has credited his footwork to growing up in England as a soccer player before his family moved to America, and it’s easy to see. While he doesn’t have exceptional long speed, Ajayi is elusive and exhibits great vision in the open field, which will lead to some longer gains. Ajayi has a lot of wiggle, but he is also willing to fight through tackles and fall forward upon contact, so there’s a physical element to his game, even if you wouldn’t consider him a “power” back. On occasion, Ajayi looks a little “limb-y” and deliberate, but manages to keep control of his body with the ball in his hands. His versatility as a receiver (he occasionally lined up out wide at Boise) will get him on the field on third downs early in his career, although he must work on his blocking technique. Ajayi must also stay out of the doghouse by working on his fumbling, which was an issue for him in college. Given his play style and the fact that he typically lined up in shotgun at Boise State, he’s likely a better fit for a spread/zone run scheme at the next level, but Ajayi possesses the skills necessary to play three downs immediately in the NFL. He’s likely to be a 2^nd-round pick and will be projected as a major contributor from Day One.

3. T.J. Yeldon

School: Alabama | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 226 | 40: 4.61 | Year: 3Jr

Yeldon didn’t get the in-season pub that players like Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon got, but he’s started to receive a lot more love over the last few months once people actually watched him play. A favorite of our friends Greg Cosell andFran Duffy, Yeldon looks like the type of player who can contribute early and often for NFL teams. Yeldon’s a bigger back who runs tall, but he has extremely light feet and can really “slash-n-go,” the style you look for in a zone runner. If you want to watch Yeldon at his best and what he can contribute to an NFL team, check out his 2014 season-opener against West Virginia. His skill is on display early and often, and especially on a spectacular second-quarter TD run, on which he followed his blocking, cut through the hole, accelerated, then dove to the end zone to boot. Sometimes you’ll hear scouts talk about the ability of a back to “string moves together,” and this is exactly what they mean. Make no mistake, Yeldon produced in college, averaging 5.8 YPC and 10.7 YPR on 576 carries and 46 receptions, respectively. But the fact that he averaged just over 200 touches per year for three years may be viewed as a positive for NFL teams, as he played as part of a rotation at Alabama and never took the hits a three-down back would be expected to take. He has a slim frame despite his size, with loose hips that allowed him to slip through the cracks at the point of attack, though he occasionally would sacrifice power for finesse, resulting in going down too easily. Overall, Yeldon needs to work on consistency in his blocking and his ball security (10 career fumbles) to become a true three-down player in the NFL, but these are all things his capable of shoring up, to which a blitzing Auburn LB can attest. A better receiver than his numbers indicate (he occasionally split out wide at ‘Bama), Yeldon fits the profile of a back who could be a better pro than college player, especially if he gets behind the right offensive line.

4. Melvin Gordon

School: Wisconsin | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 215 | 40: 4.52 | Year: 4Jr

It’s hard to rank Gordon #4 on a list like this without being labeled a “Gordon hater,” given that he’s basically mentioned in the same breath with Todd Gurley when the top backs in this draft are most often discussed. But as a fantasy website, we have some concerns that we’ll address. First of all, let’s mention the positives – Gordon was unbelievably productive in college, running for 4915 yards, including a ridiculous 343/2587/29 in 2014 (7.5 YPC). Gordon has unreal straight-line explosion and a true second gear, so he was rarely caught from behind in college. Gordon has good size, so he has some natural power in his legs, although he isn’t going to break a ton of tackles at the next level. And there’s some versatility here, as Gordon played in a very diverse offense under Gary Andersen, running tons of pro-style runs, while also adding fly sweeps and some reps as a Z receiver. But in projecting him for fantasy, we need to ask a few questions. First of all, Gordon struggled in pass protection and wasn’t productive as a receiver – he had just 22 catches in college, and while we don’t think he’s awful in that department, he tends to fight the ball on occasion. Number two, his natural quickness to the hole decreases the farther inside a run is called. While Gordon has size and is an aggressive runner, he doesn’t have the power of a Gurley- type of back, and he can’t break tackles with ease until he gets his legs going. Number three, we don’t see the Jamaal Charles comparisons, despite looking like him frame-wise. As Gordon himself has admitted, Charles has more natural wiggle and elusiveness, while Gordon’s game is more straight line, with the occasional use of jump cuts to find space. All in all, Gordon’s fantasy outlook is going to depend on his fit. If he lands, say, in Dallas, it could be easy to project him to run for 1300 yards or so as a rookie because he’ll have little competition for touches and gigantic holes to run through. However, there’s a chance he lands with a worse team behind a worse line, where the long runs that defined his college career are harder and harder to come by, while his troubles on third downs keep him off the field in fantasy-friendly situations. To sum it up in one sentence, our pre-draft concern is that Gordon becomes more of a C.J. Spiller-type of fantasy asset, an obviously explosive player who nonetheless lacks consistency and becomes more of a headache than anything else.

Future Fantasy Starters

5. Ameer Abdullah

School: Nebraska | Ht: 5’9” | Wt: 205 | 40: 4.60 | Year: 4Sr

Abdullah is a player we’re ranking a little bit lower than we’d ideally like to because we absolutely loved his tape. Despite being 5’9” and just over 200 pounds, Abdullah ran like a true three-down back at the next level. One of the first things you notice when turning his tape on is his slipperiness both in the hole and in the open field. And making tacklers miss in the hole is absolutely critical for a starting RB in the NFL. Abdullah is strong and compact with a low center of gravity, which gives him incredible balance and makes him tough to bring down (he broke more tackles in college than Melvin Gordon). He’s a phenomenal receiver who ran a wide variety of routes and lined up outside the formation, so he provides value in that department. He has experience as a kick returner, which should help him get on the field early. Abdullah was durable, never missing a game at Nebraska, which can be owed to the fact that he manages to “scrunch” up his body and absorb contact in an efficient way that doesn’t expose his body to major hits. All in all, he may have been the back in this class who, outside of Todd Gurley, provided the most dynamic skill set on tape. But that takes us back to his size. Because of his slight frame, Abdullah struggled as a pass protector, despite a clear willingness to attack defenders in that area. And because of really small hands, Abdullah had a major fumbling problem, with 13 fumbles in his college career. So we look at Abdullah as someone who provides everything you look for in a back’s skill set on tape, all the while being a high-character guy to boot. But he’s small, and with his pass protection and fumbling issues, he does the two major things that will drive a coach nuts from a back. Having absorbed 900 touches during his college career, despite his durability, may not appeal to some teams, either. We love Abdullah and believe he could be a star with the right team, but he needs to overcome some deficiencies and land in the right spot. Ultimately, he may be more of a Giovani Bernard or Andre Ellington type of player.

6. Duke Johnson

School: Miami (FL) | Ht: 5’9” | Wt: 207 | 40: 4.54 | Year: 3Jr

Speaking to the depth of this draft class, it would not be surprising in the least if Johnson lands in the right spot and ends up ranking the best as a rookie of all the 2015 running backs. It’s because of the things that Johnson is in relation to some of the other backs in this class. Immediately, the standout ability of Johnson on film is his lateral agility and burst. There is some LeSean McCoy in there, and “creative” was a word that came to mind when watching Johnson. Once he gets to the second level, he’s going to be really tough to corral, because he also has breakaway speed. Johnson’s also an excellent receiver, hauling in 65 passes in just two years of action at Miami, while running a variety of routes and showing the ability to adjust to errant throws. And perhaps most importantly, he’s the best blocker we saw at his position in the class. He got a lot of opportunity (which is uncommon for many of these guys), and he succeeded, despite a small frame. Sometimes, Johnson’s patience will hurt him to a fault, and he could lose yardage on a higher percentage of carries than you might like to see, and occasionally he’ll lose momentum when trying to shake defenders. His frame is a little thinner than Ameer Abdullah, and he doesn’t run as low to the ground, so he won’t break the tackles Abdullah will. Additionally, Johnson has a laundry list of injuries to his name, most notably the broken ankle that cost him a big chunk of the 2013 season. Johnson’s running style may limit him to more of a rotational role in a zone scheme, but his receiving and blocking ability will ensure he gets a shot to play on fantasy-friendly third downs. He also has experience as a kickoff returner, so expect to see Johnson early in his career. His ultimately final fantasy standing will depend on where he lands, above all, and if the team that drafts him sees him as more than the complementary runner his frame and skill set might suggest.

7. Tevin Coleman

School: Indiana | Ht: 5’11” | Wt: 206 | 40: N/A | Year: 3Jr

Coleman is the third Big Ten running back on our list, and we’ll have another couple in the top 10, but he played at the “worst” football school of the bunch. Nonetheless, he gave fans a reason to watch Indiana, running for over 2000 yards in just 12 games as a junior with the Hoosiers. Coleman’s calling card was his ability to change a game at any point with a “home run” sprint, as he did against Ohio State this past year, for example. Coleman’s the type of runner who is going to need a specific fit to really maximize his fantasy potential. He’s extremely patient and instinctive, and he’s always square to the line of scrimmage, which makes him an excellent fit for a zone-blocking scheme. He has straight-line speed and can run away from the defense once he gets to the second level, so a good offensive line could make him a very dangerous runner. Coleman also is a willing blocker and solid receiver, which gives him some three-down value. But we also have some concerns. While Coleman is by no means a weak runner, he doesn’t have a big frame and isn’t likely to be a pile mover, which is one area where his game is deficient in comparison to DeMarco Murray, a player to whom he’s often likened. Coleman isn’t likely to run through tackles without a head of steam, which makes him the type of runner who will consistently pile up 1-3 yards on carries, hoping to eventually bust one. Coleman, at his best, has some similarities to Clinton Portis, especially looking similar when running stretch plays. The question NFL teams will have about him will almost certainly surround his “chunk” runs – can Coleman be a legitimate sustainer at the next level? Behind the right line, we think so, but he has some disappointment potential in him. Comparing Coleman to another Big Ten back, he has more three-down value than Melvin Gordon, given his blocking and receiving, but he doesn’t have Gordon’s vertical explosion.

8. David Cobb

School: Minnesota | Ht: 5’11” | Wt: 229 | 40: 4.81 (injured while running) | Year: 4Sr

In the 2015 Draft, we have a group of running backs that have a lot of standout traits coming out of college, and given that, Cobb may slip through the cracks a little bit. Now, physically that’s hard for Cobb to do – he’s 230 pounds and built like a bowling ball, so he’s difficult to miss on film. But he’s the type of old-school back who can fit with just about any team and any system, so it’s all going to be about opportunity for him. Cobb played this year behind a Minnesota offensive line that wasn’t a strength, so he produced in spite of that, posting 314/1626/13 rushing (5.2 YPC), while running in multiple sets, including behind a fullback. Cobb almost always ran through first contact, and then quickly navigated his way into the hole with positive vision, showing the ability to accelerate in the open field. An instinctive and natural runner, Cobb makes up for his lack of true physical gifts with an understanding of his position and a willingness to grind out extra yardage on every carry. Cobb has light feet for his size and has a surprising ability to shake defenders in the hole and in the open field, so while he won’t be confused with Reggie Bush, there’s more than just a straight-line back here. Cobb wasn’t productive as a receiver in college and struggled at times as a pass protector, so he may be limited to early-down work at the beginning of his career, plus he suffered a quad injury when running the 40 at the Combine so his medicals will need to check out. Overall, he’s a “meat-n-potatoes” no-nonsense runner who fits in just about any offensive scheme, so depending on the opportunity he gets, he could be a highly valued rookie RB in fantasy drafts.

Role Players

9. Jeremy Langford

School: Michigan State | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 208 | 40: 4.42 | Year: 5Sr

Langford is one of the more interesting prospects at his position in the 2015 NFL Draft, and as such we wouldn’t be shocked to see him drafted earlier than many think and contributing early and often to a team. A former WR and CB, Langford is clearly an exceptional athlete. His 4.42 40-yard dash was the fastest at his position at the Combine, although his agility drills were more middle-of-the-pack. It’s a case of a player’s measurables matching up with what we saw on film. Langford has some natural downhill speed to him and a second gear, but he doesn’t have a particularly wide arsenal of moves. He prefers to run away from defenders rather than making them miss, so he’s more of a straight-line player without a ton of functional strength. Because of that, he tends to bounce runs to the perimeter rather than moving the pile, and in college had the speed to get there. Fortunately, we think that speed could translate to the next level. Langford is an upright runner with choppy steps, and he’s still learning the RB position, but he’s just a really good all-around football player. Given his experience as a WR, he’s a savvy route runner who can split out wide and in the slot, and while his blocking technique gets away from him at times, he’s a very willing pass protector. Langford also contributed on all four special teams units at Michigan State, despite putting up over 600 touches and 3000 yards from scrimmage over the last two seasons. Langford has some things to work on, namely his tendency to be indecisive, but he has solid vision for a guy who has played RB for only a couple of seasons. We liked Langford better than some of the more hyped backs in this draft, and we think there’s going to be a coach or two who falls in love with him. Langford projects as a third-down back with great versatility and rotational value at the next level.

10. Mike Davis

School: South Carolina | Ht: 5’9” | Wt: 217 | 40: 4.61 | Year: 3Jr

A team that takes a shot on Davis in the NFL Draft is counting on one thing – he’s going to be a better pro than a college player. A two-year starter at South Carolina, Davis ran for nearly 2500 yards and posted a very good 70/755/2 as a receiver for the Gamecocks, so it’s not like the guy was a stiff, but there are some big concerns here. Namely, he was worse in 2014 than he was in 2013, as he looked sluggish and out of shape (perhaps a rib injury had something to do with that), landing in coach Steve Spurrier’s doghouse multiple times. As a junior in 2014, Davis averaged 4.9 YPC behind a strong offensive line, which is a concern given what some of these other top backs in the draft did behind inferior lines. Additionally, Davis four 100-yard games over his first seven contests, but he topped 70 just once in the final six, as his conditioning became worse and worse. But we’re glass-half-full types, so let’s take a look at Davis at his best. A short, compact runner with thick legs and a “classic RB” build, Davis runs with natural pad level. He’s capable of being an angry runner with an active stiff arm, and because of his low center of gravity, he can bounce off tackles. Davis has some wiggle, and while he doesn’t have great burst, he is smooth in and out of cuts and doesn’t have a ton of wasted movement. If you squint, there’s some Frank Gore in Davis because he has shown the ability to slip through the cracks in the line and get to the next level. That’s the type of player Davis’ skillset means he can be. But Gore is still playing at a high level in his 30s because of his relentless work ethic and excellent pass protection. Those are two major questions in Davis’ game. In particular, the work ethic questions have plagued prospects coming out of South Carolina for years. The only player who has shattered those questions in the pros has been Alshon Jeffery, so don’t be shocked to see Davis go lower in the draft than his talent would suggest. If Davis can get motivated, he has the talent to be a far better NFL player than college player.

11. Josh Robinson

School: Mississippi State | Ht: 5’8” | Wt: 217 | 40: 4.70 | Year: 4Jr

There are better backs in this class, but we didn’t have more fun watching any of them than we did Robinson. Built extremely thick and low to the ground (the guy’s nickname is “Bowling Ball”), Robinson is going to be called a power back because of how many tackles he broke in college, but he has quick and light feet, some lateral agility, and even a little bit of a second gear. And hey, he also had the play of the year from any running back, against Kentucky. Sometimes, Robinson’s incredible tackle-breaking exploits shadow the fact that overall, he’s a pretty damn well-rounded back. Robinson has loose hips and can slip away from tacklers, which means he doesn’t always default to his power (which is a good thing). Robinson has a good feel for the zone run game and good vision between the tackles, so he can create in tight spaces, despite his thick frame. Robinson has a good burst through the hole, so he can get to top speed pretty quickly, which makes him tough to bring down. He’s also a good receiver and gives effort as a blocker, though he can improve in the latter department. A high-effort player, Robinson has some similarities to Branden Albert, who was fantasy relevant for a hot minute in San Diego last year. Another positive – Robinson was only really a starter for one year at MSU, so he has only 366 offensive touches on his wheels. His marginal top speed probably will limit his upside, but don’t be surprised if Robinson becomes a valuable player who can both catch the ball and move the pile on third downs.

12. David Johnson

School: Northern Iowa | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 224 | 40: 4.50 | Year: 5Sr

In a deep draft of running backs, there may be no back who has a more unique profile than Johnson. At 6’1” and 224 pounds, he’s huge, and he tested in the top five in basically every major category at the Combine. By every measure, the guy is a freak athlete. And he’s incredibly durable – at Northern Iowa, he handled over 1000 career touches, a ridiculous number for a draft prospect. He also was incredibly unique on film. Despite his massive frame, Johnson did not play like a big back. Instead, he was used in a ton of different ways, taking standard carries, runs from out of the shotgun, fly sweeps, splitting out wide, going in motion, etc. It was evident very early when watching Johnson that he is a space player with the frame of a power back. There isn’t much short-area quickness to Johnson – he’s a “leggy” prospect who almost looks awkward in a phone booth. But in the open field, he can use his exceptional speed and agility to elude tackles. Johnson rarely ran behind his pads, instead looking to avoid defenders with his athleticism. A very talented route runner, Johnson can destroy linebackers with shoulder shakes, getting himself wide open out of the backfield, making him a potential matchup nightmare. He’s also a very willing blocker, which will help him get on the field for a creative team that has a plan for him. A physical freak who doesn’t play like a true three-down back, Johnson may have more of a future as a rotational RB/FB/H-Back and return man, almost like a Marcel Reece type of player. That may not make him anything more than a fantasy headache, but it’ll be fascinating to see what kind of plans teams have for him.

13. Malcolm Brown

School: Texas | Ht: 5’11” | Wt: 224 | 40: 4.62 | Year: 4Sr

Those who follow college football religiously may have a difficult time separating the expectations for Brown going into Texas and trying to evaluate him freshly heading into the NFL. A major recruit for the Longhorns, Brown was a big disappointment, never locking down a full-time role, topping out at 904 rushing yards in his junior season of 2013. Brown stayed healthy his final two years at Texas, for the most part, after foot and ankle injuries bothered him in 2011 and 2012. But to suggest he lived up to his hype would be completely incorrect. Expecting to disappointed when watching him on film, we nonetheless got the impression that Brown has some skills that translate to the next level, and instead was a player who may have gotten bogged down by the collapsing Texas program around him. By all accounts, Brown is a high-character guy who got over his injuries and didn’t complain, despite playing for a bad team. He displays good vision and stays square to the line, and is always willing to fight for extra yardage. He has experience in a pro-style offense, and given that has shown the ability to catch the ball and block well, which will be asked of him in the NFL. The concern we have is that his injuries robbed him of his once-great power and contact balance, and that even when he was at his best he never really created his own yardage, despite the occasional use of jump cuts. But we wouldn’t be surprised if he carved out a role as a third-down and short-yardage back at the next level. He’s a no-frills back who will nonetheless finish all his runs, and his ability as a receiver and blocker will help him stick.

Projects/NFL Backups

14. Karlos Williams

School: Florida State | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 230 | 40: 4.48 | Year: 4Sr

It’s entirely possible that no NFL team takes the leap of drafting Williams. This past year, it was revealed that Williams was being investigated for domestic battery by Tallahassee police. He was never charged in the investigation, but will any team actually spend a pick on him given the NFL’s issues with women? Williams has talent, there’s no question about it. A former highly recruited safety, Williams only started 10 games as a running back, posting 1419 rushing yards on 241 carries (5.9 YPC) in two years on offense. From a physical standpoint, Williams looks the part, and he runs behind his pads with aggressiveness, although he has stiff hips and lacks elusiveness. But he lacks decisiveness and vision, and is the perfect example of a back who needs to see a hole before he runs through it, which is going to limit him at the next level. He also had a bothersome ankle in his past. Williams’ experience on special teams units, as well as in the return game, will help him stick on an NFL roster, especially if teams view him as a Knile Davis type of talent. But his character concerns and his overall lack of production could mean he isn’t drafted at all.

15. Javorius “Buck” Allen

School: USC | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 221 | 40: 4.53 | Year: 3Jr

Allen was a player getting a little bit of hype before the NFL draft season, understandable given his productive two-year run at USC, in which he scored 27 TDs and posted over 3000 yards from scrimmage. Unfortunately, to us he was a player who didn’t really stand out on film. Allen has a big frame but lacks “pop” in his pads – there’s very little functional strength to his running style. He was clearly a back who benefited from a friendly system at USC, as he made many of his bigger runs against lighter boxes. Allen has suddenness and burst through the hole when he actually hits it, and he has good contact balance so he can slip off some tackles. That said, he isn’t always decisive in the backfield, dancing a bit too much, and he absolutely will not be a back who will move the pile. He runs far too upright for someone of his style, and doesn’t have the loose hips in a phone booth you’d like to see from him. In the open field, Allen has reliable hands and suddenness as a route runner, plus a bit of wiggle after the catch, which makes him an intriguing third-down type of threat. Overall, Allen has some big-play ability and all-in-all is a competitive player, but he doesn’t have the functional strength to be anything more than a rotational player. From what we saw on tape, Allen’s ceiling is as a Bishop Sankey-type of player. Allen’s eye-popping big plays could mean he, like Sankey, gets over-drafted, but be careful not to overvalue him for fantasy.

16. Matt Jones

School: Florida | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 231 | 40: 4.61 | Year: 3Jr

Jones isn’t going to be a fit for everyone, but a team that’s looking for something specific may find exactly what it needs. Not a particularly productive player in college, Jones had only 1531 yards from scrimmage in three years at Florida, hampered by a twice-torn meniscus and other maladies. His best year was as a junior this past year, posting 166/817/6 rushing (4.9 YPC) and 11/65/1 receiving, playing for a bad Florida team but putting some good things on tape. First of all, Jones doesn’t look to us like the type of player who will appeal to a predominant zone-blocking team. When running zone, he looked indecisive and slow with poor vision, robbing him of his most natural trait, his power (think of a much less explosive Bryce Brown). But in power and gap runs, Jones knew to hit the hole and was able to push the pile, often dipping his shoulder at the point of attack to pick up extra yardage, with positive balance. Jones has excellent play strength and burst in the hole, plus has the frame to pick up rushers, so it’s possible he fills a role as a third-down/short-yardage back for a gap running team at the next level. He doesn’t have a ton of fits, but those teams he does fit may like him a lot as a later pick.

17. Terrence Magee

School: LSU | Ht: 5’8” | Wt: 213 | 40: N/A | Year: 4Sr

LSU has been famous for years for rotating backs heavily, and because of that, Magee hasn’t put as much on tape as most of the other backs in this class. But coach Les Miles continually put him in a place to succeed. A short but stoutly built back, Magee has good speed without exhibiting much of a second gear, and has experience running out of pro style sets. His biggest standout trait on film was his pass protection – he was given opportunities to do it, recognized his assignments, and attacked with good technique. We would have liked to see more from Magee as a receiver (just 24 catches in four years), but nothing we saw suggests he can’t be a good receiver at the next level. We don’t have a lot to go on, considering he totaled just 250 touches for 1557 yards at LSU, but his blocking and good straight-line speed/power combo will help him onto the field in the NFL in third-down and special teams situations.

18. Dee Hart

School: Colorado State | Ht: 5’7” | Wt: 199 | 40: 4.80 | Year: 4Jr

There are three major things working against Hart as he transitions to the next level. Most obviously is his size, as he’s among both the shortest and lightest backs in the entire draft. Number two are his measurables, none of which were even close to average (his timed speed of 4.80 was especially disappointing). Number three, was the fact that he tore his ACL twice in the same knee before transferring from Alabama to Colorado State. Sooo… other than that Mrs. Lincoln? At the risk of sounding too clichéd, Hart’s just a football player. Under Colorado State coach Jim McElwain (the former OC at Alabama and now Florida HC), Hart had an excellent junior season, posting 194/1275/16 rushing (6.6 YPC) and 18/189/2 receiving in 13 games. The spread offense clearly helped, but on film Hart exhibited an excellent feel for the zone run game, with very good patience. While Hart lacks lateral agility, light feet, and the size to be a good pass protector, his outstanding competitiveness, patience, and vision will help him land with a zone-running team, especially if he can play special teams. He may not get drafted because of all the red flags, but he’s a great competitor who could impress in camp.

19. Michael Dyer

School: Louisville | Ht: 5’8” | Wt: 218 | 40: 4.58 | Year: 5Sr

It seems like a decade ago that Dyer was an emerging star for Auburn, winning a National Championship and breaking Bo Jackson’s freshman rushing record. Well, it wasn’t that long ago… just a half decade. A guy who played with Cam Newton at Auburn is just now coming into the draft, because his path has been wayward, to say the least. After rushing for over 2300 yards in two years with Auburn, Dyer was suspended for a violation of team rules and transferred to Arkansas State, when former Auburn OC Gus Malzahn was hired there as head coach (Malzahn has since returned to Auburn, now as the head man). He never played a down for Arkansas State, and finally found himself at Louisville for the last two seasons. At Louisville, Dyer missed time with thigh, groin, and hip injuries, while also getting suspended to end his career. Needless to say, Dyer needs to show both the skill that made him a star at Auburn and interview well to get drafted. At his best, Dyer reminds of a Dion Lewis type of jitterbug back, a player with quality acceleration and some “zuzu” in his game. But he struggled as a blocker and caught just 8 total passes in four seasons, so Dyer has a long way to go to make an NFL roster. His natural talent could get him drafted, but he’s just as likely to be a wing-and-a-prayer UDFA who could make some noise.

20. Cameron Artis-Payne

School: Auburn | Ht: 5’10” | Wt: 212 | 40: 4.53 | Year: 5Sr

Most of the positives you’ll hear about Artis-Payne surround the fact that he was productive and durable at Auburn against SEC competition. And that is true – as a senior, he posted 303/1608/13 rushing (5.3 YPC) and 13/147/0 receiving. However, we constantly came away from watching Artis-Payne wanting to see more. For the type of player you’d think he’d be, Artis-Payne is very straight-line and stiff. He doesn’t make anyone miss in the hole and tends to just lower his shoulder and try to drive forward. Occasionally, he won’t hit the hole even if it’s blocked for him. All in all, Artis-Payne seems to take more direct hits than he needs to. He just goes forward and doesn’t see what’s in front of him, often missing cutback lanes. He willingly invites contact, but far too often that contact was from his own offensive linemen, as he just ran into their backsides for no reason whatsoever. A sluggish player with no second gear, Artis-Payne must prove it wasn’t just the Gus Malzahn offense that made him productive. He will have to impress as a blocker and receiver plus on special teams to have a legitimate shot as a rookie (oh yeah, he’ll be 25 as a rookie to boot).

Wide Receivers

Potential Franchise Players

1. Amari Cooper

School: Alabama | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 211 | 40: 4.42 | Year: 3Jr

Cooper immediately stepped onto the field at NFL factory Alabama in 2012 and broke Julio Jones’ freshman records. Cooper didn’t disappoint in his final two seasons either, and he’ll likely land in the top 10 in May just like Jones did in 2011. However, Cooper is a different player than Jones, as Amari is more of a Z receiver and the best route runner in this year’s draft. His route running helps him to line up all over the field, and it makes him a QB’s best friend because he creates so much separation, especially by the sideline. Cooper has big hands and he uses them well to catch and to fight through press coverage. He tested well at the Combine, but he doesn’t have blazing speed (4.42 40-time) or ridiculous size (6’1”, 211 pounds). He makes up for those areas with superior quickness and balance, which helps him to win in the short and intermediate passing game. Cooper tracks deep balls pretty well, and he has enough speed to make game-changing plays. He does have a few too many drops on tape, and it’s the one area where he needs to find more consistency. He struggled at times as a sophomore, as he played through some foot and toe issues. Cooper rebounded by winning the Biletnikoff Award in 2014 and was a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. Cooper and Kevin White would rank behind Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham if they were in the 2014 draft, but these two prospects are still franchise players. Cooper is very good at the little things and makes things look easy, and he could be the safest prospect in this draft. Cooper could easily step into a decent offense and immediately become a target-hound #2 fantasy WR.

2. Kevin White

School: West Virginia | Ht: 6’3” | Wt: 215 | 40: 4.35 | Year: 4Sr

If Amari Cooper is 1A at WR heading into the 2015 draft, then White is 1B. White appears to have the most potential upside, and he blew everyone away with a 4.35 40 time at the Combine, which is a great time considering his size (6’3”, 215 pounds) and strength. White physically reminds us ofLarry Fitzgerald, and like Fitz, White can win in big-man games and in little-man games. He’ll primarily line up as an X receiver in the NFL, and he has good speed to separate from CBs, and he stacks DBs downfield. White isn’t as polished as Cooper, but he’s still a smooth athlete and crisp route runner. He struggled with drops in his first season at West Virginia in 2013, but he caught everything and consistently won in contested situations last season.Cooper didn’t do well on the chalkboard at the Combine, which isn’t too surprising since he worked from only the right side of the field in West Virginia’s up-tempo offense. White doesn’t have a history of production, as he dominated for just one season at West Virginia after transferring in from JUCO in 2013. He’s also not overly explosive and runs a bit high, but he does fight for everything and gets open for his QBs in scramble situations. White is an effort blocker, but he needs to improve his technique on the outside. White and Cooper would rank behind Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham if they were in the 2014 draft, but these two prospects are still franchise players. Cooper is still the favorite to go as a high as #4 overall to the Raiders, but White is now clearly in the mix to be the first WR off the board. White isn’t as polished as Cooper at this point, but Kevin could end up being the better fantasy player.

Future Fantasy Starters

3. Breshad Perriman

School: Central Florida | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 212 | 40: N/A | Year: 4Jr

Perriman is looking to etch out a career at WR like his dad Brett Perriman did for 10 NFL seasons. They might share a last name, but the younger Perriman is much bigger (6’2”, 212 pounds) than his father (5’9”, 180 pounds). Perriman played out of the slot some in college, but he’ll be an X receiver at the next level, and he’s built pretty similar to Kevin White. Perriman has the height, length, and speed that teams covet out of their #1 receiver. He strained his hamstring during the Combine and wasn’t cleared to run, but he clearly looks like a big-play receiver on tape. Perriman can beat defenders in one-on-one situations, and he easily gets downfield and wins in jump-ball opportunities because of his size. He averaged 20.9 yards per catch and 20.8 YPC the last two seasons, so he’s got big-play ability. Perriman actually had his best season in 2014, despite the fact that he lost QB Blake Bortles to the NFL in 2013. He ran a full route tree at UCF and is pretty clean route runner. Perriman’s biggest red flag is his issue with drops and double catches, and his hands might prevent him from ever becoming a great receiver. At least he adjusts to poorly thrown balls and can pluck balls out of the air. Perriman has suddenness for a big guy, but his explosiveness – he reportedly ran a sub-4.3 40 at his pro day – doesn’t always show up on tape. He’s also a good but not great run blocker at this stage of his career. If Perriman can clean up his drops, he can be a #1 target in an NFL offense and a high-end fantasy asset.

4. DeVante Parker

School: Louisville | Ht: 6’3” | Wt: 209 | 40: 4.45 | Year: 4Sr

Parker is bit of a polarizing prospect, as some experts think he belongs in the Amari Cooper/Kevin White discussion as the top WR available. There are other experts who think Parker shouldn’t go in the 1^st round because of his sloppy feet and route running. He has false steps off the line of scrimmage and telegraphs his routes, which negates his superior length (80-inch wingspan!) and athleticism. Parker might be slightly behind the top WRs in this class, but his Combine performance could lock him into a 1^st-round pick. He ran a 4.45 40-time and did much better than Cooper and White in the vertical and broad jumps, which usually translates toward NFL success for WRs. However, he’s not quite the athlete he’s been tabbed to be because his athleticism doesn’t always translate to the field. He missed seven games with a broken bone in his foot in 2014, and it seemed to slow him down a little when he returned. Parker is an X receiver at the next level, but he did line up all over the field and he ran a NFL route tree at Louisville. He does sell routes and gets open unconventionally at the top of his route stem, but he doesn’t show much YAC ability and his toughness has been questioned at times. Parker reminds us of Alshon Jeffery, as he consistently wins contested balls and seemingly is open even when he’s covered. It could take Parker some time to realize his full potential at the next level just like it took Jeffery some time to break out.

5. Sammie Coates

School: Auburn | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 212 | 40: 4.43 | Year: 4Jr

Coates might have the most freakish athletic ability in this year’s WR draft class. He burnt it up with a 4.43 in the 40 at the Combine, and he’s incredibly strong while checking in at 6’2”, 213 pounds. Coates plays much bigger than his listed weight, as he’s very effective after the catch, and he’ll mix it up as a blocker. He’s an explosive for a player his size who can easily take the top off a defense, but he doesn’t track the ball well downfield. He’s has a knack for making big plays, averaging 20.9 YPC last season and destroying Alabama’s vaunted defense with 5/206/2 receiving. Coates didn’t help his stock with drops during drills at the Combine, which was the top concern of his coming into Indy because of some bad drops on tape. He flashes strong hands at times and can make contested catches, but he has too many focus drops. He lined up as the X receiver for Auburn and he didn’t run a lot of routes in their up-tempo run spread offense, but he’ll likely be a Z movement guy. Coates did have foot surgery back in 2011, but he’s been pretty healthy since then. He’s also a high-character player and well-liked by his teammates. Coates is a dynamic prospect with all the tools to become a big-play receiver, but he’ll need to clean up his sloppy hands, which makes him a bit of a boom-or-bust prospect. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him flash in a couple games next season like Steeler rookie WR Martavis Bryant did in 2014.

6. Devin Funchess

School: Michigan | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 232 | 40: 4.70 | Year: 3Jr

Funchess is listed as a WR heading into the draft, and it’s looking like he’ll at least start this summer as an X receiver, but his future might be as a move TE. He could also have dual eligibility during his rookie season, depending on where he lands. Funchess worked with the WRs at the Combine, but he ran like a TE, clocking in at 4.7 in the 40-yard dash. Still, Funchess checked in at 6’4”, 232 pounds, so he’s much bigger than most WRs and tough to bring him down after the catch. He began his college career as a TE before moving to WR, in large part because he struggled as a blocker. He doesn’t have top-end WR speed, but he’s a good route runner and gifted leaper. Funchess is obviously huge for a WR and a little undersized for a TE, which makes him a tweener for the next level. He did line up out of the slot quite a bit last season, and he showed some separation quickness and surprising speed for his size. Funchess has a huge catch radius, and he had to adjust to a lot of poorly thrown passes with Michigan, but he didn’t give enough effort on contested passes. He also runs a bit high on his routes and he must improve his footwork. Funchess is a little smoother laterally than Kelvin Benjamin, and he reminds us a little bit ofJermichael Finley. Funchess is a matchup nightmare for just about every defender because of his size. His slow 40-time will only raise more questions about his ability to play on the perimeter as a WR, but just 17 reps in the bench press isn’t a great number for a potential TE. Funchess could be used as a WR or as a move TE next season, depending on where he lands in the late 1^st round or in the 2^nd round. Funchess is a high-character prospect, and he’ll be more than willing to do what’s best for the team. His fantasy value will obviously hinge on what kind of eligibility he’s awarded next season.

7. Jaelen Strong

School: Arizona State | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 217 | 40: 4.44 | Year: 4Jr

Strong comes from a basketball background as the son of former Philadelphia basketball legend John Rankin, and it shows up on the football field. Strong is the best prospect in both contested catches and in ball skills in the draft, and he also has great body control along the sidelines. He has the chance to be the best possession receiver in the draft, but he’s also not too bad of an athlete either. He ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash and had a 42-inch vertical at the Combine, so he has the potential to develop into more of a threat at 6’2”, 217 pounds. He’s off to a good start trying to convince teams that he’s a 1^st-round selection. Strong is likely an X receiver at the next level, but Arizona lined him up out of the slot at times and used him in the screen and short-passing games. He can get downfield and separate with his length at times, but he lacks the second gear to be a consistent deep threat. He dealt with a lingering ankle issue in 2013 and missed a game last year because of a concussion. Strong is a tough player and gives good effort as a blocker. If he wants to become a dominant possession receiver, he needs to clean up his route running and his small hands are a concern. Strong played only two seasons at the Division I level, but he’s willing to put the work in to get better. Strong also needs to get better off the line of scrimmage, but he did show improvement in 2014. Strong has a pretty solid all-around game and it looks like he’s a high-floor option in this draft, but he’ll probably never be an elite, #1 fantasy WR.

Vertical Threats

8. Devin Smith

School: Ohio State | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 196 | 40: 4.42 | Year: 4Sr

Miami’s Phillip Dorsett might have the most elite speed in this year’s WR class, but Smith is the best pure deep threat. Smith is fast but he also has the ball skills to be an elite vertical threat, tracking the ball well and attacking passes in the air. He average an amazing 20+ yards per target last season. Yes, per target. Smith is a straight speedster and explosive down the field, gaining separation from defenders at the top of his route stem. He never missed a game in college and he had crazy TD production (12 scores) last season, and the total could’ve been even higher if his QBs would’ve led him down the field. Smith lined up as the X receiver and in the slot for the Buckeyes, but he’ll likely be a Z receiver in the NFL. He has smaller hands but they are strong, and he can fight through contact and get off the line of scrimmage despite his size (6’0”, 196). Ohio State used a heavy rotation at WR, so he was never the guy for defenses to key on. Smith also relied so heavily on his speed in college that his ability to run routes is a major question mark for the next level. Still, he has quick enough feet and good hips to become good enough as a route runner to complement his speed. Smith is far from a refined WR at this point in his career, but he has lethal speed and is an instant game changer for any offense. He’ll likely have a couple big fantasy games next season, but he could struggle to find consistency.

9. Phillip Dorsett

School: Miami (FL) | Ht: 5’10” | Wt: 185 | 40: 4.33 | Year: 4Sr

If Amari Cooper and Kevin White are the 1A and 1B at the top of the WR class, then Devin Smith and Phillip Dorsett are the 1A and 1B of the vertical threats in this year’s WR class. Dorsett ran a blazing fast 4.33 in the 40-yard dash at the Combine, and he might be the most explosive athlete at the WR position in this draft. He also had a great week at the Senior Bowl, which helped him climb some draft boards. Dorsett is only 5’10”, 185 pounds, but we’ve seen small guys like Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, and John Brown step into the league and have success with their speed. Dorsett has elite vertical speed and it helps that he has great body control and will fight for passes. He can beat press coverage with his quickness, and he easily runs away from defenders, but he still needs to improve at tracking deep balls. Dorsett will see most of his time as a Z receiver or in the slot next season, but he lined up everywhere for the Hurricanes and has return ability. He relies too heavily on his speed and doesn’t run a full route tree yet, but he has loose enough hips to become a better route runner. Dorsett does double catch some passes and has some easy drops that he needs to clean up. He missed five games in 2013 because of a partially torn MCL, but he didn’t lose any of his speed. Dorsett reminds us a bit of DeSean Jackson, and he has the chance to be a game changer immediately next season. Just like Smith, Dorsett will have a couple big fantasy games next season, but he could struggle to find consistency.

Boom or Bust

10. Dorial Green-Beckham

School: Oklahoma | Ht: 6’5” | Wt: 237 | 40: 4.49 | Year: 3Jr

Green-Beckham is easily the most polarizing WR in this year’s draft class, and he’s challenging Jameis Winston as the most polarizing prospect in the entire draft because of his major off-field issues. Missouri dismissed him from the team after the 2013 season, as Green-Beckham was being investigated but never charged, for burglary and assault. Most alarmingly, he allegedly pushed a woman down the stairs during the incident. He also has two arrests for marijuana possession, so he’s got some major red flags in this current state of the NFL. Also, teams haven’t even seen him play in a year, as he had to sit out 2014 because of transfer rules. When teams have seen him play, he’s also shown some immaturity issues on the field. He’s a front-runner, flipping the switch on and off, and he doesn’t give enough effort as a blocker. Dorial also has too many focus drops, and he has false steps as a route runner. He’s too sloppy in too many aspects and there’s no nuance to his game, so he’ll need some major refinement once he gets to the NFL. With all those negatives out of the way, Green-Beckham is a former #1 overall recruit in 2012 and is an absolute physical freak. He posted a 4.49 in the 40 and checked in at 6’5”, 237 pounds at the Combine, so he has the potential to be a monster deep threat as an X receiver. Like Calvin Johnson, he’s almost uncoverable and a nightmare for defenses in jump-ball situations. Green-Beckham has speed to burn but also the size to fight through press coverage. He also possesses surprising vision as a YAC guy to go along with his soft hands and large catch radius. Green-Beckham has all the raw skills and physical traits to be an all-time great WR, but teams will have to look past some major red flags with his immaturity issues, on and off the field. After seeing all the problems that the Browns went through with Josh Gordon, it’s fair to wonder if Green-Beckham will slide down draft boards. Like Gordon, Green-Beckham could be the NFL’s top WR one year and out of the league the next.

Potential Immediate Role Players

11. Justin Hardy

School: East Carolina | Ht: 5’10” | Wt: 192 | 40: 4.56 | Year: 4Sr

Hardy keeps climbing up draft boards, and he’s one of our favorite mid-round receivers in this year’s draft. He’s a bit on the small side (5’10”, 192 pounds), but he showed some of the best hands of any WR last season and at the Combine. His hands – which are big for his size - actually looked pretty shaky in 2013, but he worked hard to eliminate his drops last season. Hardy isn’t as physically impressive as some of the prospects in this year’s class, but he’s a self-made man as a former walk-on at East Carolina. He started 45 games and scored 35 TDs in college, and he’ll be a high-character guy at the next level because of his work ethic and his willingness to do the little things well. Hardy is willing to do work over the middle, and he made East Carolina QB Shane Carden look much better than he actually was last season. Hardy will bring punt–return value, and he can contribute on screens and reverses. He lined up all over the field, but he’ll need to run more routes next year. He doesn’t have great speed, so he must use his quickness to get off the line of scrimmage and to get open. He will mix it up as a blocker, which should help him get on the field as a slot receiver with more teams running out of 3-WR sets. Hardy will never be a fantasy superstar, but he could earn playing time early in his career and be a #3 fantasy option at some point.

12. Tony Lippett

School: Michigan St. | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 192 | 40: 4.61 | Year: 5Sr

Lippett did just about anything that was asked of him at Michigan State – he played both sides of the ball at WR and CB – and he produced, thanks to doing all the little things well. Lippett isn’t an elite athlete, so he relies more on technique to get open as a possession receiver. He’s a very physical X receiver, but he also plays smooth and fluid as a route runner. Lippett is a savvy receiver, selling double moves and getting creative to get open. He also tracks passes well and has a large catch radius. He can out-jump defenders, and he uses his frame to pluck passes away from DBs on contested passes. Lippett will give effort as a blocker, but he doesn’t have the strongest body type. He flashes strong hands, but he does double catch some passes and drops some outright when he takes a hit. Lippett looked a little stiff at the Senior Bowl, and it shows in his limited production after the catch. He showed a ton of improvement as a breakout fifth-year senior, but he wasn’t much of a prospect before 2014. Lippett reminds us of Jarvis Landry heading into the draft, as neither receiver is particularly dangerous with the ball but they both find ways to consistently get open. Lippett could become a PPR gold WR for fantasy, and he should stick in the league for a long time.

13. Tre McBride

School: William & Mary | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 210 | 40: 4.41 | Year: 4Sr

McBride will have quite the jump going from small FCS school William & Mary to the NFL, but he’s one prospect with the background to make the jump. He grew up in a military family and moved quite a bit growing up, but he has plenty of discipline and was an excellent student. McBride raised some eyebrows with his performance and 40 time at the Combine, and he has the potential to be a vertical threat. He’s also fearless attacking the ball in the air, going up to pluck balls out of the air in contested situations. McBride is excellent after the catch, and he’s a fearless runner with his RB size (6’0”, 210 pounds). For a small-school player, he’s pretty refined route runner, showing loose hips and explosiveness out of his breaks. McBride does have small hands and they are usually reliable, but he does have a couple of drops in critical moments. McBride looks to be a movement Z receiver at the next level, although he played about 50/50 outside/inside in college. He also has kick-return experience, which will add to his value. McBride has some downfield ability because of his body control and ball tracking, but he’ll have a bit of a hill to climb coming from a small school. McBride won’t be an immediate starter, but he has potential to eventually develop into a useful NFL receiver. And for what it’s worth, he was an exceptional interview, as we talked to him on 3/26.

14. Rashad Greene

School: Florida St. | Ht: 5’11” | Wt: 182 | 40: 4.53 | Year: 4Sr

Greene left Florida State as the school’s career leader in catches (270) and receiving yards (3,830), which is impressive considering some of the WRs the university has produced. Greene’s best strength is his ability after the catch because he has great vision and suddenness up the field. He also runs tough, despite his smaller frame (5’11”, 182 pounds). He is a smooth athlete with a wiry frame, which helps him to snag balls away from his frame. He showed good concentration over the middle and along the sidelines, but he needs to become a better route runner. Greene has effective deep speed, despite just mediocre testing at the Combine. He does have some competitiveness questions because he doesn’t make a ton of contested catches, and he tries to make too many body catches. He’s also a passive blocker, and he struggles when cornerbacks get physical with him. Greene reminds us of Torry Holtbecause of the way he moves with his loose hips. Greene played all over the field at Florida State, but he is built to play as a Z receiver or out of the slot next season. He won’t be a mismatch for defenders with either his speed or his size, but he could develop into a nice complementary WR.

15. Tyler Lockett

School: Kansas St. | Ht: 5’10” | Wt: 182 | 40: 4.40 | Year: 4Sr

Lockett has the potential to be a nice gem for a team on the final day of this year’s draft. He’ll go in the middle rounds because of his size (5’10”, 182 pounds) and small hands, but he‘s fast (4.4 40-time) and looked fluid while catching everything in Indy. He’ll likely have to play out of the slot next season, but he lined up everywhere in college while breaking all of his dad’s records there. His father is Kevin Lockett, who was a 2^nd-round pick of the Chiefs in 1997 and bounced around for 7 NFL seasons. Lockett has elite quickness and agility, and he’s explosive in and out of his breaks and stacks cornerbacks. Still, he needs to clean up some of his route running, and he doesn’t exactly mask his intentions well. Lockett is a dangerous player after the catch because of his vision as a ball-carrier, which will also help him as a returner. Lockett doesn’t make enough contested catches, and he still needs some work on his hands. He is easily affected by press coverage and is limited as a run blocker. Lockett could have durability questions because of his size, but he missed just four games in his four-year career because of a lacerated kidney as a freshman in 2011. Lockett put up big-time production throughout his four-year career, and he’ll work to improve his game to get on the field early. Athletically, he’s everything a team would want, but size limitations could limit him to working out of the slot.

16. Nelson Agholor

School: USC | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 198 | 40: 4.42 | Year: 3Jr

Agholor looks and plays a lot like former teammates Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, but he’s not nearly the same prospect as his former teammates. He’s not afraid to work in the middle of the field, which is good, since he’ll work as either a slot or Z receiver. He has positional versatility and will be able to return punts immediately. Agholor was born in Nigeria before coming to the United States at 5 years old, and he’s an extremely humble prospect. Agholor put up some good production over the last two seasons, and he showed good vision and wiggle after the catch. His route running can be inconsistent at times, but he attacks DBs into high-leverage positions when he’s playing well. He really needs to improve getting off the line of scrimmage. He’s slow of the ball, consistently uses false steps off the line, and he struggles to fight through press coverage. Those aren’t exactly great traits for a potential slot receiver. Agholor has a ton of drops and double catches, and he might have the worse hands in the draft, even worse thanSammy Coates. However, Agholor doesn’t have the explosiveness or the strength in contested situations to make up for his weak hands. Agholor will have to make his living over the middle of the field during his NFL career.

Projects/Rotational Receivers

17. Titus Davis

School: Central Michigan | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 196 | 40: 4.51 | Year: 4Sr

Davis is hoping to become the next sleeper WR out of Central Michigan, following in the footsteps of Antonio Brown. It’s hard not to see some similarities between the two players, as Davis is one of the best route runners in the draft and can run a full route tree. He tested below average at the Combine, but he relies more on his quickness than his speed. Davis had the shortest arms and hands at the Combine, but he makes up for it with strong reliable hands and great ball skills. He lined up all over the field at Central Michigan, but he looks destined to work primarily out of the slot. Davis scored 37 TDs and missed only three games in his four-year career, but he didn’t exactly play at the highest level of college football. He doesn’t have the top-end speed to be a vertical threat, but he tracks the ball very well, so he doesn’t need a ton of separation. Davis is a high-character prospect, and he’ll put the work in to get better, and it shows up in his effort as a blocker. Quarterbacks will love the way he keeps plays alive near the sideline and his knack for beating zone coverages. Davis won’t blow teams away because he’s a below-average tester and has size limitations, but his ball skills and route running will keep him in the league for a while.

18. Kenny Bell

School: Nebraska | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 197 | 40: 4.42 | Year: 4Sr

Bell led the Cornhuskers in receiving in all four of his college seasons, and he broke the 42-year-old school records of Johnny Rodgers, so it’s tough to get much more productive out of college. He started 49 games in college and showed explosive ability, and he has the chance to develop into a vertical threat. His father Ken Bell played for the Broncos for four seasons, so he’s got good bloodlines. Bell can separate from defenders and get vertical, and he fights off press coverage with his hands and quick feet. However, he does occasionally have some false steps off the line of scrimmage, which slow him down getting into his routes. He projects as a Z receiver, but he needs to improve as a route runner and become more than an outside threat. Bell has good hands but he doesn’t always win out in contested situations because of his thin frame (6’1”, 197 pounds). He’s mostly a vertical threat, but the Cornhuskers did use him in their screen game. Bell reminds us of Kenny Stills heading into the draft, both extremely productive in college with vertical ability for the next level. Bell could certainly develop into a #2 WR, and he could be an upside fantasy option in a few seasons.

19. Antwan Goodley

School: Baylor | Ht: 5’10” | Wt: 209 | 40: 4.44 | Year: 4Sr

Goodley is built like a running back (5’10”, 209 pounds), but he has speed to burn and plays much bigger than his height. He gets defensive backs to flip their hips and can snag deep balls. Goodley is a strong, physical player but has the elusiveness to make defenders miss in the open field, so he’ll be good after the catch. He also uses his strength to fight through press coverage. Goodley projects as a Z receiver at the next level, but he lined up mostly on the right side of Baylor’s up-tempo offense. He also ran a very limited route tree, so he’ll have a bit of a learning curve figuring out NFL routes. Goodley wasn’t really asked to do too much over the middle of the field but that will change once he gets into the league. Goodley did get some reps in the Baylor backfield, and he should be used as an offensive weapon. He did have way too many drops on tape, and he doesn’t always give a great effort. Goodley is built a lot like Pierre Garcon, and his future team will look to use him in a variety of ways. He’s has all the natural tools to be a factor in the NFL, but he’ll need to become a more complete receiver to become a fantasy factor.

20. Jamison Crowder

School: Duke | Ht: 5’8” | Wt: 185 | 40: 4.56 | Year: 4Sr

Crowder might be the quickest WR in the draft, but he’s also the smallest (5’8”, 185). He has small hands and short arms, but he plays with an edge to make up for his size limitations. Crowder has worked on the outside but he’ll likely work out of the slot at the next level. He can easily win off the line of scrimmage with his quickness. He’s also a refined route runner who can create plenty of separation, which could make him a QB’s best friend in the underneath areas. Crowder actually ran a terrible 40-yard dash (4.56) and had the worst 10-yard split at the Combine, but he plays much faster than he timed. He’s shown top-end speed on tape and can track deep balls really well, so he can be a vertical threat. Crowder is excellent in space, so he could easily be used in the screen game and as a returner next season. He struggled against press coverage in college, and he does have some bad drops on tape. Crowder reminds us of a lowercase Brandin Cooks with their playing styles, as they’ll both make plays all over the field despite their size. It wouldn’t shock us if Crowder contributes right away next season if he lands with the right offensive coach who will manufacture him some touches.

21. Dezmin Lewis

School: Central Arkansas | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 214 | 40: 4.58 | Year: 4Sr

Lewis was one of the stars at the Senior Bowl, and he needed a big week coming from the small Southland Conference school. He looks like an NFL WR at 6’4”, 214 pounds, and we see a lowercase version of DeVante Parker when you watch Lewis. He’s a deceptive X receiver who can sneak deep every once in a while, but he doesn’t have top-end speed to get deep. He does use the same route pace for his verticals and his stick routes, which helps him to get open. Lewis has great ball skills, and he’s capable of making spectacular one-handed catches. He is long but he can struggle to get off the line of scrimmage. Lewis must improve against press coverage, and he lacks explosiveness out of the blocks. He’s a solid route runner and it ultimately looks like he’ll be a possession receiver at the next level, but his hands need to be more consistent. Lewis is an intriguing prospect, but he could need a season or two to make the adjustment from small-school Central Arkansas to the NFL.

22. Ty Montgomery

School: Stanford | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 221 | 40: 4.55 | Year: 4Sr

Montgomery is one of the more gifted WRs in this year’s class, but he needs refinement in a lot of areas and is more of a project than a finished product.He didn’t help his draft stock with drops during drills at the Combine, which was a major concern heading into Indy. He has a good frame (6’0”, 221 pounds) and he’ll flash strong hands by making some spectacular catches, but then he’ll fight the ball and drop some easy ones. Montgomery tested well in the vertical jump (40.5 inches) and broad jump (10’2”), but he disappointed in the 40-yard dash (4.55 seconds). He’s at his best with the ball in his hands, as he has good vision after the catch. It makes sense then that he’s strong in the return game and on screen passes, and he’ll be a Z receiver because of his movement skills. Montgomery thinks way too much as a route runner, and he should be more consistent against press coverage. He did miss two games last season because of a shoulder injury, and he had shoulder surgery in the off-season. Montgomery reminds us of Ted Ginn because he has game-changing ability as a returner and with the ball in his hands, but he needs to become a more consistent receiver to stay on the field. Montgomery’s destiny could be as a shot- or gadget-play WR in the future if he doesn’t become a consistent receiver.

23. Dres Anderson

School: Utah | Ht: 6’1” | Wt: 187 | 40: NA | Year: 4Sr

Anderson is the forgotten man in this year’s WR draft class because he’s coming off season-ending knee surgery in October 2014. He tore the meniscus in his left knee and needed surgery, but he was set to participate in Utah’s pro day on March 26. Anderson comes from some good bloodlines as his dadFlipper Anderson played 10 NFL seasons, winning a Super Bowl with the Broncos and holding the NFL record for receiving yards in a single game (336 yards). Anderson has good deep speed, but he’s just a straight-line WR right now. He’s not a crisp route runner and doesn’t run a full route tree. We saw him make just one contested catch on tape, and he struggles to track the ball, which isn’t a great combination for straight-line player. He also dropped way too many passes over the last two seasons. Anderson is long at 6’1”, but he looks to be a Z receiver or slot guy because of his lean frame. He’s far from a complete receiver at this point, but he’s willing to put in the work to get better. It will be interesting to see when Anderson gets drafted this May considering his knee injury. At the very least, Anderson could become a situational deep threat at the next level.

24. Stefon Diggs

School: Maryland | Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 195 | 40: 4.46 | Year: 3Jr

Diggs was a five-star recruit out of high school in Maryland, but he never quite lived up to the lofty billing for his home state university. Diggs is built to work out of the slot, and he’ll at least be able to work as a returner as a rookie. He’s a quick-twitch athlete, and it shows up on his cuts out of option routes and when he has the ball in space. Diggs isn’t entirely comfortable with his hands, but he does high-point passes and catches balls away from his frame. He’s a smooth slot receiver, but bigger defenders outmuscle him and he’ll curl up in the middle of the field when he feels a hit coming. He did miss six games to a broken fibula in 2013 and three games to a lacerated kidney in 2014. Diggs got to work Maryland WRs coach Keenan McCardell, and the former star NFL WR started to steer Diggs in the right direction. He could be dangerous in the right offense, with an OC who isn’t afraid to give him some manufactured touches. Diggs obviously as a high ceiling as a former five-star recruit, so we’ll see if he can develop into a dangerous weapon out of the slot.

25. Darren Waller

School: Georgia Tech | Ht: 6’6” | Wt: 238 | 40: 4.46 | Year: 4Sr

Waller is the next in line of huge Georgia Tech WRs to come into the league, joining Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Stephen Hill. Waller is an absolute giant (6’6”, 238 pounds), and he could eventually transition to tight end. He played WR in a triple-option offense, so he lined up mostly on the right side and needs to learn how to run routes. Waller is open even when he isn’t open, and he’ll be a red-zone nightmare for opposing defenses as a fade option near the endzone. He’s not very explosive out of the blocks, and he fights his hands at times. He’s a good blocker for a WR but will need to improve if he transitions to TE. Waller was suspended for the season openers in both 2013 and 2014 for violating team rules. He didn’t exactly play a lot in college, but he could be a late bloomer at the next level. He has the size and athleticism that should earn him some type of role in a NFL offense. Waller could develop into a dangerous red-zone threat, and he could be an interesting prospect down the road if he earns TE eligibility for fantasy.

Tight Ends

Future Fantasy Starters

1. Maxx Williams

School: Minnesota | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 249 | 40: 4.78 | Year: 3So

Williams leads a pretty weak overall 2015 TE class, and he’s the only player out of the group who could sneak into the 1^st round. Williams comes from an athletic family as he’ll be a third-generation NFL player. He tested well at the Combine, showing soft hands and adjustment skills in drills, but he didn’t do much to move the needle in either direction heading into Pro Days. Williams looks the part (6’4”, 249 pounds) and he’s got big hands and long arms that maximize his catch radius. He’s more of a fluid athlete than explosive, but he can get down the seam, and he’ll win battles in traffic. Williams is a chain-mover and a threat in the red zone, as 82% of his catches went for first downs or TDs. He also led TEs with 9 explosive catches (25+ yards) last season, so he’s dangerous in the open field. Williams worked in a lot of multiple TE sets at Minnesota, and they moved him all over the place, so he’s comfortable lining up anywhere on the field. He missed a game in 2014 because of a calf injury, and he redshirted in 2012 with a bruised sternum, but he doesn’t have any major durability questions. Williams looks to still be learning how to run routes, but when he’s focused he can create separation with his transition out of breaks. He needs to get a little nastier as an inline blocker, and he has the room to get a little stronger. Still, he does a good enough job as a blocker to get on the field early in his career. As we saw in 2014, it’s tough to expect much fantasy production out of rookie TEs, but Williams has the best chance to do it out of this class, and he’s definitely an ascending prospect.

2. Clive Walford

School: Miami (FL) | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 251 | 40: 4.79 | Year: 5Sr

Walford appears to be the next in line of productive NFL tight ends from the University of Miami. He steadily improved during his time with the Hurricanes, capping off his career as a Mackey Award finalist and as a third-team All-American. Walford did suffer a meniscus injury in his final regular season game, which forced him to miss their bowl game. He got back to full strength quickly and had a great week at the Senior Bowl. He also tested well at the Combine,showing good hands and adjustment skills in drills. Walford is a former standout basketball player at 6’4”, 251 pounds, and he uses his big frame and huge hands to help his QBs out. Walford lined up at a number of different spots at Miami, and he excelled at getting off press coverage and can win in unconventional ways. Walford runs a variety of routes but needs to become a more consistent as a route runner. He’s pretty talented after the catch, with decent speed and the strength to fight for extra yards. He did struggle with some drops in his first couple seasons at Miami, but his concentration improved as a senior. Walford is a good blocker who can line up as the play-side blocking TE on zone runs, which will help get on the field early in his career. He’s not an elite athlete for the position, but he’s above average as a receiver and as a blocker. Walford has the potential to play for a long time at the next level, and he should be ready to contribute immediately, depending on where he lands.

Potential Immediate Role Players

3. Jeff Heuerman

School: Ohio State | Ht: 6’5” | Wt: 254 | 40: 4.8 | Year: 4Sr

Heuerman came to football a little later than most, as he was a star hockey player into high school. He’s still a developing player who wasn’t too featured in the Ohio State offense, but he has all the tools to become a starter in the league. Heuerman has long arms and big hands, which help to snag passes away from his frame. He moves well in space, and he could develop into a vertical threat down the seams. Heuerman is a good athlete and comes from a family of athletes, as his brother played TE at Notre Dame and his dad played basketball at Michigan. He struggled at times in 2014 because of a stress reaction to his surgically repaired foot. It also hurt that freshman QB J.T. Barrett wasn’t a polished passer, but Urban Meyer did line up Heuerman all over the field. He’s a solid blocker who has improved during his college career, but he’s not quite a finished product and could get bigger and stronger. Heuerman is ready to contribute right away, but he could take a little time to reach his full potential. He’s never been featured as a receiver during college, which is a huge concern, but he does have the athletic ability to have a much better NFL career.

4. Tyler Kroft

School: Rutgers | Ht: 6’5” | Wt: 246 | 40: 4.75 | Year: 4Jr

Kroft had one of the more interesting Combine experiences this February. Kroft suffered a high ankle sprain during Rutgers’ bowl game, and he had a bizarre re-injury at the Combine during medical examinations and was unable to participate. Kroft is a former high school WR and it shows. He looks like a natural receiver, with good ball skills and soft hands to catch the ball away from his frame. Kroft still needs to improve as a route runner, but he does show good instincts finding soft spots against zone defenses. Kroft looks a lot like Zach Ertz with how he gets down the seam at his size (6’5”, 246 pounds). Kroft has a tall, athletic frame but he needs to get stronger at the next level. Not surprisingly, he struggles to get off the line in press coverage, but he is an aggressive blocker who has improved during his college career. His production did slip quite a bit from his sophomore to junior season, which is a concern, but he did play with the terribly inconsistent Gary Nova. NFL teams will love Kroft’s size and potential for the next level, and he’s got a chance to be a solid receiver at the next level. Like Ertz currently, Kroft needs to get stronger and become a better blocker before he becomes a three-down TE, which will obviously cap his fantasy upside.

5. Jesse James

School: Penn State | Ht: 6’7” | Wt: 261 | 40: 4.83 | Year: 3Jr

James is one of the more physically imposing prospects at 6’7”, 261 pounds, and his 37.5-inch vertical at the Combine demonstrates that he could be dangerous red-zone weapon at the next level. He did struggle at times in the gauntlet drill at the Combine and his testing was all over the board. James played a lot in his three seasons at Penn State, but he was underutilized for the most part. James has reliable hands and won in contested situations, using his size to maximize his catching radius. James used his size to get off press coverage and it made him tough to bring down with just one defender, but he doesn’t have the speed or elusiveness to get away in the open field. James lined up all over the field, and he presents a matchup nightmare when he’s able to post up smaller defenders. James is a solid run blocker, but he probably should be a better blocker than he is based on his size. James is already a big inline TE, but he has the frame to fill out even more – think Scott Chandler-type size. The problem is that James is not terribly athletic or a great receiver, so his fantasy upside could be capped unless he becomes a red-zone monster or a PPR threat in the middle of the field.

Projects/NFL Backups

6. MyCole Pruitt

School: Southern Illinois | Ht: 6’2” | Wt: 251 | 40: 4.58 | Year: 5Sr

Pruitt went to the Combine with little fanfare coming out of a small FCS school, but he was the one TE prospect to really help his stock. He ran the fastest 40-time at 4.58 seconds, and his 38-inch vertical also led the group. Pruitt isn’t the biggest TE at 6’2”, but he does have big hands (10.2 inches) and long arms (33.4 inches). Pruitt and South Alabama’s Wes Sexton (4.65) were the only TEs to run sub 4.7-seconds in the 40-yard dash at the Combine. Pruitt is the most productive college TE in this year’s draft class, as he led all of Division I (FBS and FCS) in tight end catches (81), yards (861), and TDs (13). Pruitt really improved his hands in 2014, as drops from previous years disappeared. He’s a fluid runner and can move in the open field, creating yards after the catch and fighting for extra yardage. Pruitt will work to finish off blocks, but he’s not the strongest and is still a bit inexperienced as an inline blocker. He’s also needs more polish as a route runner, as he’s not very consistent at the top of his routes. It’s hard to argue with Pruitt’s production in college, but he’ll face quite a jump in competition starting this summer. Pruitt is a bit undersized, but he’s a good athlete and receiver, so he has the chance to develop into a fantasy asset.

7. Ben Koyack

School: Notre Dame | Ht: 6’5” | Wt: 255 | 40: NA | Year: 4Sr

Koyack is probably the most versatile TE prospect heading into the draft. He played five positions during his high school career before working as a lead blocker at Notre Dame in 2013, playing H-back and fullback. Finally, Koyack worked as the inline TE during his senior season, so he has less experience at the position than most prospects. Koyack’s versatility makes him intriguing at the next level, but it’s also a case of doing a lot of things well but nothing great. He has long arms and big, reliable hands, which helps him to make some tough catches in crowds. Koyack can get vertical and run down the seam, but he shows just decent athleticism after the catch. He has just 2 explosive catches (25+ yards) to his name coming out of college. He needs to improve the nuances of route running, which is to be expected for a player who is still relatively new to the position. He’s a solid overall blocker, but he should dominate more than he does on the perimeter and in space. Koyack still needs more work as an inline TE, and he’s still a bit raw as a receiver, so he could take time to develop into a fantasy prospect.

8. Nick O’Leary

School: Florida State | Ht: 6’3” | Wt: 252 | 40: 4.93 | Year: 4Sr

O’Leary, the grandson of legendary golfer Jack Nicklaus, is a bit of a polarizing prospect. All he did was produce and compete at a high level in college, but his physical traits suggest he’ll be an H-back, at best, at the next level. O’Leary went to the Combine as a potential top-5 TE prospect, but he ran an extremely disappointing 4.93 40-time, and he had by far the shortest arms at 29.6 inches. However, he blew everyone away in the gauntlet drills, making every catch look easy, and he did it all without gloves. He has tiny hands but they’re soft, helping him to make tough catches in traffic. O’Leary has excellent hands and concentration, and he’s more than willing to make tough catches in traffic. He’s also tough and physical after the catch, but he can’t run away from defenders with his average speed. He had just 6 explosive catches (25+ yards) during his entire career and 0 during his senior season, which shows he has just one gear. He holds his own and is a willing blocker, but he could be outmuscled by bigger players at the next level. O’Leary lined up in a number of spots for the Seminoles – inline, in the backfield, and out of the slot - and he’s a better fit for a team that uses multiple TEs. O’Leary is a throwback tight end and has been proving naysayers wrong his entire career, so we can’t count him out, but he just doesn’t have much of a ceiling for the next level.

9. Blake Bell

School: Oklahoma | Ht: 6’6” | Wt: 252 | 40: 4.80 | Year: 5Sr

Bell is a former QB who played only one season at TE for the Sooners. He showed good hands during drills and tested well compared to the other TEs at the Combine, so he’s got a chance to make it as a TE at the next level. He earned the nickname “Belldozer” for his physical, straight-line running style, and he’s certainly a competitive player. He may have been a QB for three years, but Bell already has a pretty full frame (6’6”, 252 pounds) to make the transition to NFL tight end. It’s not surprising that he’s limited as a route runner, and he’ll be learning on the fly next summer, so it’s tough to expect him to play right away. He actually improved a lot as a run blocker as the 2014 season went along, so he certainly has some hope to keep improving. Bell is slowly moving up draft boards in this weak TE class, and he’s one of the more intriguing TE prospects going forward. He might need a year or two to develop at the position, but he’s certainly athletic enough to eventually make an impact at the next level.

10. Nick Boyle

School: Delaware | Ht: 6’4” | Wt: 268 | 40: 5.04 | Year: 4Sr

Boyle already looks like a starting NFL tight end at 6’4”, 286 pounds, but he’s not exactly a quick-twitch athlete coming out of a small school. He ran a slow 40 (5.04) at the Combine, and he’s slow out of his stance on tape, almost laboring at times off the line of scrimmage. Boyle will never be categorized as an elite receiver at the position, but he could play at the next level because he’s a good blocker. He typically lined up in-line at Delaware, and he almost never got pushed back and gave good effort as a run blocker. Boyle isn’t hopeless as a receiver, as he runs clean routes and has good body control to make contested catches. However, he did seem to regress as a receiver from his junior to senior season, as his yards per catch dipped from 11.3 in 2013 (42/474/7) to 8.2 in 2014 (37/304/4). Boyle seemed to lose some quickness and athleticism from his junior year to his senior year. Boyle is unlikely to ever be exciting for fantasy, but he could carve out a decent career as a run blocker.

FantasyGuru.com’s Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley combined to produce this report

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Friday, March 27, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #6 (Pre-Draft Rookie Report)

2015 Pre-Draft Rookie Report