Sunday, May 18, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #9 (2014 Post-Draft Rookie Report)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #9
Published, May 18, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #9: 2014 Post-Draft Rookie Report - 5/16 

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2014 Post-Draft Rookie Report

Published, 5/18/14

 

This year rookie class was a very good one overall, with excellent quality depth at WR, above-average depth at RB and QB, and at least 4-5 strong prospects at the TE position.

 

But with better depth than usual at the skill positions, this year’s drafted created more confusion for fantasy purposes, especially at the RB position, which isn’t great news.

 

But there’s no question that the NFL has been infused with some new and serious talent, and it’s our job to break it all down. Below each positional outlook for 2014, you’ll also find our rankings for the long-term, and we’ve included more UDFAs than ever to make sure we leave no stone unturned.

 

Here we go….

 

Quarterbacks

 

1. Johnny Manziel, Cle

School: Texas A&M | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 207 | 40: 4.68 | Year:  3So

 

Drafted: 1st round, 22nd overall

 

Bio: Two-year starter who, in 2012, became the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy. Passing totals last year included a completion rate of 69.9%, 4114 yards, 37 TDs, and 13 INTs. Also added 759 yards rushing and 9 more scores. Freshman totals included 3706 yards passing, 26 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Also added 21 rushing touchdowns that season.

 

Scouting Report: Manziel will go down as one of the more electrifying athletes to ever take a college football field, but the biggest question is how Manziel’s talents will translate to the next level. Manziel was one of the most polarizing prospects in NFL Draft history because he relies so heavily on making ad-lib plays outside of offensive structure. In other words, he didn’t “win from the pocket” nearly enough, despite the physical ability to do so. LSU and Missouri focused on keeping Manziel in the pocket last season, and he had two of his worst performances in those games. To our Greg Cosell, one of his biggest red flags might simply be his inability/unwillingness to throw the ball consistently to open receivers when plays are there to be made. A nimble and light-footed player, Manziel tested in the top-five in about every category at the combine, so he was one of the top athlete prospects at the position. He also has gigantic hands (nearly 10 inches long) despite his smaller frame, which is like Seahawk QB Russell Wilson. Manziel has a pretty strong arm and has great touch, but he needs more zip on his sideline patterns. He also has a tendency to drop his eyes under pressure, which is something that has ruined former 1st-round pick Blaine Gabbert. Manziel played in a shotgun- and pistol-based offense at Texas A&M, so he has very little experience in pro-style offenses. Manziel can pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground, but he takes some big, unnecessary hits, which is a major concern considering his size. There are more and more NFL quarterbacks who are making plays outside of the pocket, which is where Manziel thrives, so he’s making the jump to the next level at the right time. And there is definitely something to be said about his excellent instincts, awareness, and the whole “Johnny Football” thing.

Fantasy Analysis: Manziel has the chance to produce for fantasy no matter the circumstances because he’ll run and try to make plays, but he needs to stay available, as he doesn’t have the biggest frame and has shown a tendency to take some unnecessary hits. Johnny Football could have a lot of upside if he can supplement his scrambling ability with more patience out of the pocket. Manziel will be in a battle with the underratedBrian Hoyer, but the guess here is that he’s going to start and he's going to run, so he has fantasy potential for sure. However, there will be a gaping hole at WR with Josh Gordon suspended for at least half the season, and as it stands now the entire season. Because of that fact the Browns will likely run the ball a ton. It will be interesting to see how Manziel reacts to being asked to hand the ball off a lot, but that is a good scenario for him (think Russell Wilson). The Browns also have a great defense on paper, which should help Manziel stay on schedule.  

 

2. Teddy Bridgewater, Min

School: Louisville | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 214 | 40: NA | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 1st round, 32nd overall

 

Bio: Highly decorated three-year starter who’s consistently improved over the course of his career.

 

Scouting Report: Bridgewater was touted as the #1 QB prospect entering the 2013 college season, and even though he’s been picked apart quite a bit since then, he still looks like the most refined QB prospect. Bridgewater’s biggest red flag has been about his size and stature, as he played last season at a listed 198 pounds, exceptionally light for a college QB, let alone a professional one. He bulked up for the combine (214 pounds), but we’ll see if he can keep the weight on. Bridgewater didn’t throw at the combine, and he had a poor pro day, despite the controlled environment. Bridgewater’s played with a glove on his throwing hand since high school, but he ditched the glove at his pro day in March, which could explain some of his troubles. Bridgewater, who plays with good footwork and balance, comes from a pro-style system that feature pro passing game concepts, and it would be hard to find an NCAA quarterback who had more responsibility than him at the line of scrimmage. He also manipulates defenses with his eyes to free up passing lanes, which is next-level stuff. He’s got a quick release and can fit the ball into tight spots, and while he doesn’t have the biggest arm, he does have good touch on vertical throws. He does have a low release point, which is a concern given his lack of ideal height, so that will have to be worked on. Bridgewater, who plays with a good rhythm and tempo, looks comfortable and composed in the pocket and is willing to stare down the gun barrel as he goes through his progressions. He shows the good instincts of a pocket QB, yet has some escapability and can run when he wants to (similar to Russell Wilson). But he’s more than happy to stay in the pocket to make a play, which is what you want to see from a young QB. Despite his lack of ideal size, he hasn’t had lingering durability issues. He did play through a broken left wrist and a sprained right ankle to win the Sugar Bowl MVP as a sophomore, so he’s a tough kid. What he isn’t is an effusive kid, and that concerns some scouts because most of the great QBs have a demonstrative quality that helps them lead men.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Bridgewater could be the most pro-ready QB in the draft, so he has the chance to pick up OC Norv Turner’s offense quickly. He’s got the arm, instincts, and decision-making skills to become a quality NFL starter for years to come, and it never hurts to play quarterback under Norv. Veteran Matt Cassel may open the season as the starter, but Bridgewater is ready to play and advanced mentally, so he'll see the field at some point this season, yet he’s only worth picking as a #3 fantasy QB. There is some upside to be had here with a good OL, a great running game and some quality receivers, namely the gifted Cordarrelle Patterson.

 

3. Tom Savage, Hou

School: Pittsburgh | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 228 | 40: 4.97 | Year: 5Sr

 

Drafted: 4th round, 135th overall 

 

Bio: Former Rutgers starter who transferred to Arizona before finally settling on Pittsburgh last season. Posted a career-best 2958 passing yards and 21 touchdowns in 2013.

 

Scouting Report: We weren’t that high on the former Pittsburgh starter, but the hype machine was intense on him in April, and many people we respect thought he might be a 2nd-round pick. Savage ended up falling to the 4th-round, so the hype slowed up a bit by the time the draft came around. Savage played last year in a pro-style system, and he has a strong arm downfield and on the perimeter, so he can make all the throws. However, he’s a bit of an “arm thrower,” which can result in chronic accuracy issues, and at times he doesn't always step into his throws, which hurts his velocity. His ball comes out quickly with good zip, and he has at times shown the ability to be accurate with good ball placement on short-to-intermediate throws. However, there are plenty of other negatives with his game. At the NFL level, throwing with timing and anticipation is critical, and Savage has issues here. He doesn’t throw receivers open, and the ball is often late. He tends to stare down his primary target, as he doesn’t see the whole field, and he’ll force throws into coverage. Savage isn’t a good athlete and his pocket awareness is subpar. He also missed time last season because of a concussion and a rib injury, and he is a 24-year-old prospect (Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater are each 21 years old).

 

Fantasy Analysis: Savage is full of natural talent and has an NFL skill set, but there’s a lot of physical and mental work to be done before we’d consider him a viable NFL starter. Savage isn’t ready to play just yet, but he has a clear path to the starting lineup in Houston, as his only competition is veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Texan HC Bill O’Brien is a good offensive coach and has been a mentor for young QBs, especially pocket passers like Savage. A trade for Ryan Mallet wasn’t in the cards, so Savage will clearly get every chance to emerge as the guy for the long-term, and also at some point this year for 2014. However, veteran WR Andre Johnsonisn’t particularly thrilled with the organization, and their receiving corps after Andre is below-average to be kind.

4. Blake Bortles, Jac

School: Central Florida | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 232 | 40: 4.93 | Year: 4Jr 

 

Drafted: 1st round, 3rd overall

 

Bio: Two-year starter named American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2013.

 

Scouting Report: Size is a major attribute for NFL QBs, and compared to his quarterback draft mates, Bortles most looks the part at the next level. He’s big at 6’5” and 232 pounds, he has the arm to make any throw on the field, and he can get to the perimeter and make plays with his feet as a deceptive runner. He’s mobile enough to effectively run some read-option in the NFL. Bortles tested well at the combine, and he worked under center in a pro-style system at Central Florida against only decent competition. He has a good – but not great – arm and can get the ball downfield, but his vertical accuracy isn’t great, likely due to shaky lower body mechanics and footwork (he’s gripped the ball too tightly, but that seems to be cleared up). He’s worked on his footwork leading up to the draft, and he looked improved in the area at his pro day and it helped his deep ball. Bortles has been compared to Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck, and he’s probably more athletic than Big Ben but not nearly as creative outside of the pocket (and not nearly the all-around specimen Luck is). That said, Bortles is comfortable in the pocket and senses pressure pretty well and avoids taking unnecessary sacks. He is willing to take chances with some tight throws, which also means he will force some passes into coverage. Bortles doesn’t always throw with great anticipation, and he doesn’t throw his receivers open nearly enough. He also fumbled nine times last season, so we’d like to see improved ball security.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Bortles hasn’t hit his ceiling yet coming into the league, so he’s got the chance to develop into a future franchise quarterback if everything falls right for him. The Jaguar offense isn’t the ideal situation for a developing QB to land in, but at least the franchise is trying to build an offense around him like the Colts did when they loaded up on skill players in Andrew Luck’s draft class. Bortles could sit most of the season, but history and Chad Henne’s track record say the #3 overall pick will get on the field. The hope is that it’s later rather than sooner, since playing too soon could disrupt his development. The Jags made sure to get him some weapons by using 2nd-round picks on Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, but Bortles does lack experience and needs to develop to fulfill his massive potential.

 

5. Zach Mettenberger, Ten

School: Louisiana State | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 224 | 40: NA | Year: 5Sr

 

Drafted: 6th round, 178th overall

 

Bio: Started 12 games last season completing 64.9% of his throws for 3082 yards and 22 TDs. Missed the team’s bowl game after tearing his left ACL in the regular-season finale. Junior totals included 2609 passing yards. Started his career at Georgia before transferring to a community college and then making his way to LSU.

 

Scouting Report: The best prototypical pocket passer in this draft class, Mettenberger would have gotten more buzz as one of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft class if not for a serious injury. He tore his ACL and MCL at the end of November last year, but he had to wait until early January to have knee reconstruction surgery while his MCL healed. Mettenberger believes he’ll be ready for the start of the season, so his recovery has been going well. He also got red-flagged by teams for a spine condition and for failing a drug test at the combine because of a diluted sample, and that’s disconcerting. He benefitted from playing in a pro-style offense under LSU OC Cam Cameron, which will help him transition to the next level, and Mettenberger really improved the mental side of his game in 2013. But Mettenberger’s most-coveted attribute is his big arm, as only Logan Thomas has a bigger arm in this year’s draft class. Mettenberger projects as a good fit in a vertical passing game. He’s willing to stare down the gun barrel while stepping into this throws and taking hits in order to go through his progressions, and he’s not afraid to pull the trigger on any throw and can throw guys open with timing and anticipation. His willingness to stand in the pocket will lead to some forced throws at times, and he’ll never be confused for a great athlete with the mobility to make a ton of plays outside of the pocket, although he’s not a completely lead-footed player and made throws in designed boot action in college. Mettenberger has had footwork and mechanical issues in the past, but he improved in those areas this past season and his ball placement was better. His accuracy could be better, though, and he got to play with future NFL receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, who made some big-time plays for him. Off the field, Mettenberger was arrested and kicked off the Georgia Bulldogs football team in 2010 for lying about a sexual battery incident at a bar, obviously a serious red flag. But he paid a fine and served 12 months’ probation, and he’s come off as a much more mature player heading into the NFL. Here’s a clip of us talking with Mettenberger in late-March.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Mettenberger has an NFL arm and is willing to stand in the pocket and deliver throws, and he landed in a great situation where he could see time behind an oft-injured starting quarterback. If Mettenberger’s knee checks out and he stays out of trouble, the Titans could easily give Mettenberger a shot because Jake Locker certainly has problems. Locker is also in the final year of his deal and the team refused to pick up his fifth-year option for 2015, so Mettenberger could get a shot to start later this year or by next year. Mettenberger can really rip the ball vertically, and he has the chance to develop a nice combination with developing playmaker Justin Hunter in the future, so we like him as a developmental fantasy prospect despite his red flags.

 

For the best of the rest and keeper and dynasty QB rankings with comments, order now!

 

Running Backs

 

1. Bishop Sankey, Ten

School: Washington | Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 209 | 40: 4.49 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 2nd round, 54th overall

 

Bio: Two-year starter awarded all-America honors last season after finishing the year with 1870 yards rushing and 20 TDs, averaging 5.7-yards on 327 carries. Added 28 receptions, 304 receiving yards, and 1 TD last season. Sophomore totals included 1439 yards and 16 TDs.

Scouting Report: Sankey saw a lot of work as the lead back for the Huskies the last two seasons, but we don’t know if he projects to be a volume back in the traditional sense. However, he could make an immediate impact and could be a PPR type running back option, as he’s drawn some comparisons to Bengal RB Gio Bernard (although he’s not a special mover like Gio). Sankey has the speed and quickness to get to the edge, and he’s a natural receiver who makes catches with ease. Sankey also tested extremely well at the combine among RBs, finishing second in bench reps (26) and fourth in broad jump (10-6), but he doesn’t totally play to his tests, and he’s not as elusive and explosive as Bernard. He also played in the shotgun and pistol last season, so he’d be best in a system that spreads the defense out or else he’ll have to adjust to a more traditional offense at the next level. Sankey excels out in space, making defenders miss with jump cuts. But he’s more subtly elusive, so he’s not great at creating yardage for himself, especially in the hole. He’ll pick up what is blocked for him, but he runs with little power and goes down almost always on first contact, despite several highlight-reel runs in college during which he broke some tackles. He demonstrated good blocking fundamentals, but he must get stronger to become a better pass protector and see a consistent role. Here’s a clip of us talking with Sankey in April.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Sankey has the potential to be a game-breaker in the NFL, but we didn’t necessarily see him as a foundation back. The Titans were looking for a replacement for Chris Johnson, and they believe that Sankey can be that guy, and he certainly has some added fantasy value as a receiver out of the backfield. HC Ken Whisenhunt could try to use Sankey like the Bengals used Giovani Bernard last season, with Shonn Greeneas the lead back. However, he’s not a special mover like Bernard. Sankey isn’t an ideal lead back, so this could be something of a committee with Greene in Tennessee and we think he’ll be a little overrated in the fantasy world. But Bishop is certainly very solid and versatile, and the offensive line could be very good here, so he’s certainly an appealing flex option this year with some upside.

 

2. Jeremy Hill, Cin

School: Louisiana State | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 233 | 40: 4.66 | Year: 3So

Drafted: 2nd round, 55th overall

 

Bio: Started 11 games last season, winning all-conference honors after carrying the ball 203 times for 1401 yards and 16 TDs. Freshmen totals included 142 attempts, 755 yards, and 12 TDs.

 

Scouting Report: Hill will be one of the more polarizing rookie RB prospects because he has undeniable talent, but it comes with a very checkered past. Hill had two off-the-field issues before turning pro, which scared away some teams from the big back. He was arrested on sexual assault charges before even taking the field for LSU, and he pleaded guilty to battery charges last April. He’ll be on probation until the summer of 2015. He’s trying to clean up his act and came off very well in an interview with us on SiriusXM in March. On the field, he’s bigger than Ohio State prospect Carlos Hyde, and Hill runs with good instincts and some wiggle to make defenders miss in the open field. He runs with very good vision and gets skinny in the hole, and he picks up extra yardage because he runs behind his pads with a forward lean. Our Greg Cosell calls him a “no-frills runner, with natural power and leg drive who is at his best when he’s a decisive downhill runner.” He’s also been reliable runner, with just 1 fumble on 371 touches, and he doesn’t have a ton of wear and tear coming into the league. Some of his detractors have compared him to Titan RB Shonn Greene because of his average athleticism and his lack of agility. Hill is a better North-South runner, but he also has the chance to be a better receiver. Hill has much more reliable hands than originally thought, but he won’t pick up a lot yards after the catch. He also ran behind a fullback his entire career at LSU, so we’ll see if that will be factor in his transition to the NFL, where there are more one-back sets. He’s certainly not a creator, nor will he get to the edge consistently in the NFL – and he actually tried to bounce too many runs outside in college – but he can create extra yardage because of his physical style and his ability to fall forward. Hill should be able to handle a lot of volume at the next level. Note: Here’s a clip of us interviewing Hill from early-March.

 

Fantasy Analysis: New OC Hue Jackson clearly wants to run the ball more this season, but it was still a little surprising that Hill landed here in the 2nd round. It’s a crowded backfield here with Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but the Bengals likely have designs of using Hill right away. Hill has the potential to handle a lot of volume and be a foundation back for years to come. Hill will need to quickly cast BJGE aside, which may not be easy, but then again Hill is a lot more talented, so it could happen. In fact, since Law Firm doesn’t have a big contract this year and has no money guaranteed, this high ranking is assuming that there’s a better than 50/50 chance that he’s cut. If so, this is certainly a nice situation for Hill.

 

3. Devonta Freeman, Atl

School: Florida State | Ht: 5-8 | Wt: 206 | 40: 4.58 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 4th round, 103rd overall

 

Bio: Posted 1016 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns last season after moving into the starting line-up on a full-time basis. Also added 22 receptions.

 

Scouting Report: Freeman became the first Florida State player to run for more than 1000 yards since Warrick Dunn did it all the way back in 1996, believe it or not. And Freeman did it while splitting carries with fellow rookie RB prospect James Wilder, Jr. Freeman comes from a pro-style system that would split him out at times, but he didn’t rack up a ton of touches (451) in his career, so he’s got plenty left in the tank. Freeman has good vision and instincts to set his blocks up, and he has a short-area burst to get downhill in a hurry. He doesn’t have breakaway speed for his size, but he makes up for it with his ability to pick chunks of yardage. Freeman actually has some Frank Gore in him because of his vision inside, and he makes defenders miss in the hole and refuses to go down on first contact despite his size. Freeman is one of the best pass protectors in this year’s draft class, so he could step into the lineup early in his career. He always stays square to the line of scrimmage and anchors as a blocker. Freeman also shows a willingness to lead block, and the Seminoles actually used him as a lead blocker at times. He’s shown reliable hands and can catch balls outside the frame of his body. Freeman didn’t miss any time in three productive seasons for the Seminoles, so he’s shown durability heading into the league. However, he does have a history of lingering back injuries despite not missing a game, which is a bit of a concern. Freeman also benefitted from running behind one of the most talented and imposing offensive lines in football. Freeman, who ran well at the combine, looks natural with the ball in his hands with good vision and instincts.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Freeman doesn’t have breakaway speed or the ideal size, but he has the potential to be a feature back at some point early in his career because he plays with physicality. Freeman may not be a true power back, but he could be a lead back in an offense that runs predominantly 3-WR sets, like Atlanta’s. He showed that he can play in all facets of an offense, and he developed a lot in his final two seasons at Florida State.Freeman projects as a better version of Jacquizz Rodgers, and he also has upside to take over if Steven Jackson gets injured or looks old, so Freeman has a couple of possible paths to fantasy relevance. He has to move up the depth chart still, but we’re projecting him to do just that, so he’s an upside-oriented depth pick later in drafts.

 

4. Charles Sims, TB

School: West Virginia | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 214 | 40: 4.48 | Year: 5Sr

 

Drafted: 3rd round, 69th overall

 

Bio: Three-year starter who began his college career at Houston. Senior totals included a career-best 1095 yards rushing with 11 TDs. He also had 45 receptions for 401 yards and 3 touchdowns. Junior totals of 2012 included 851 yards rushing with 11 touchdowns. Career receiving numbers of 70 receptions, 759 yards and one touchdown came as a freshman at Houston.

 

Scouting Report: Sims might be the most versatile running back in this year’s draft class. He can run, catch, and pass protect, and he does it all in a decent-sized package. Sims ideally could bulk up a little bit, especially in his lower body, but the comparisons to Matt Forte coming out of college seem pretty fair, although he’s not as smooth and fluid a runner as Forte is. Sims racked up some major mileage with 795 touches over four years between Houston and West Virginia, but not nearly as much as Forte’s 936 touches at Tulane. Sims is a quality receiver out of the backfield and one of the best in this year’s draft, with great hands and route-running skills. He’s also considered to be one of the best pass protectors in this class, and he’s an extremely intelligent player on the field. He ran in the 4.4s at the combine and he’s a smooth downhill accelerator, but while he has some wiggle in the open field and runs with a slashing style, he’s more of a straight-line guy. Sims has great vision and sets up his blocks, but it can lead to indecisiveness at times behind the line of scrimmage. He is a competitive runner and breaks through arm tackles, but he can go down on first contact too often and doesn’t play with enough power despite his size. He runs high and looks stiff, evidenced by his performance in the three-cone drill. He doesn’t have very big hands and lets the ball get away from his body on occasion, but he’ll be appealing to a team looking for a runner-receiver with a multi-dimensional skill set. Sims might not be a workhorse RB, but he has the ability to be a three-down playmaker.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Landing in Tampa Bay with Doug Martin certainly hurts Sims’ potential fantasy impact, but Sims has big-play ability to make his presence felt right away. He doesn’t look like your typical NFL workhorse back, but the guy he’s most often compared to, Matt Forte, has done just that in Chicago. Sims will at least contribute as a receiver out of the backfield next season. The Bucs are a little concerned with Martin’s injury issues and pass protection, so they wanted a reliable backup. Head coach Lovie Smith also made it pretty clear at the combine that they want to utilize two backs, and not just Martin, and they couldn’t pass on Sims' hands and receiving ability, so he has a good chance to get snaps early. He’s worth more than a top RB handcuff would in fantasy drafts, but not too much more.

5. Terrance West, Cle

School: Towson | Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 225 | 40: 4.54 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 3rd round, 94th overall

 

Bio: Three-year starter who led Towson in rushing every season since his freshman campaign. Awarded all-America honors as a junior. Totals last year included 2509 yards and 41 touchdowns in 16 games. Added 26 receptions for 258 yards and one score. Sophomore totals included 1046 rushing yards and 14 TDs after 1294 rushing yards and 29 TDs as a freshman. 

 

Scouting Report: West dominated college football last year…at the FCS level. Still, he finished as a finalist for the FCS’ player of the year award after a remarkable season. West is a physical, competitive runner with good leg drive, and he posted an impressive 40-time (4.54) at the combine for his size (5’9”, 225 pounds). He projects as a physical, one-cut runner at the next level. He runs high and stiff (he could barely bend over at the combine) and will struggle to make defenders miss at the next level, but he also showed off some very good qualities. He showed patience and vision, pressed the hole and ran with low pad level while running through contact and finishing with power. Towson did work him into the ground in just three seasons, as he racked up 838 touches, so he’s got questionable long-term potential because of the hits he’s already taken in his career. West doesn’t have a lot of pass drops on tape, but he mostly uses his body to catch passes. He also fumbled 5 times as a junior because he tends carry the ball away from his body at times. West also needs to improve as a pass protector if he wants to succeed at the next level. Note: Here’s a clip of us talking with West on 5/1/14. 

 

Fantasy Analysis: West showed a lot of NFL traits as a college runner, but he did do it against inferior competition. Still, it looks like he could be a foundation back in a run-heavy scheme, much like Alfred Morris did as a rookie in Kyle Shanahan’s offense two years ago. West is very similar to Ben Tate, so it looks like he could be the #2 RB at worst this season. The Browns could also certainly give him some carries with Tate, who probably should be in the 225-250 carry range because he tends to wear down, and West has some upside if the oft-injured Tate is hurt once again. The Browns are obviously going to look to run the ball a ton, and we were told that RB coach Wilbert Montgomery had West as his #1 back in this draft.

 

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Wide Receivers

 

1. Mike Evans, TB

School: Texas A&M | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 231 | 40: 4.53 | Year: 3So

 

Drafted: 1st round, 7th overall

 

Bio: Two-year starter awarded all-conference honors since his freshman season. Sophomore totals included 65 receptions, 1322 yards, and 12 TDs. Freshmen numbers included 82 receptions, 1105 yards, and 5 TDs. Lead Texas A&M in receiving the past two years.

 

Scouting Report: Johnny Manziel stole all the headlines for the Aggies the last two years, but a huge part of his success has to be credited to his security blanket, Evans. Johnny Football would many times improvise and just chuck it deep to Evans, and he had an incredible ability to attack the ball in the air and win jump balls. He has surprising vertical speed for such a big man, and he can beat cornerbacks at the line of scrimmage by attacking their technique and getting on top of defenders deep. He has the ability to not only get vertical, but to also run away from defenders, and he ran a 4.53 at the combine to showcase that. Evans is a unique player because he moves like a much smaller player but is a massive athlete (his arms measured at more the 35 inches a piece). Fellow rookie Sammy Watkins is generally regarded as the better prospect, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see Evans become the better player because of his size and freakish qualities. Evans can also be a weapon in the screen game because he has great vision and can pick up yardage after the catch. Evans should be a dangerous weapon in the red zone because of his size, incredibly strong hands, and his body control along the sideline. He’s already physical enough to play at the next level, and he has a great jab step and sells double moves. He shows a willingness to block in the run game and is QB friendly because he works back to the line of scrimmage. He’ll need to get better at catching balls in the middle of the field at the next level, and he only lined up to the right of his quarterbacks in the Aggies’ no-huddle offense, which is a slight concern going forward. If he learns to run the whole route tree effectively, he should be tough to stop. 

 

Fantasy Analysis: The Buccaneers really needed to add another weapon at receiver to go along with Vincent Jackson, and they certainly got their guy in Evans. He’s a freak athlete for his size, and he has the potential to be a major force in the red zone and as a playmaker down the field. His new QB Josh McCown loved throwing to big receivers last season in Chicago, and he was pining for Evans before the draft, which is also a positive. Evans is an immediate starter at X, and while his route-running is limited, he’s still a matchup nightmare, and should be used plenty in the red zone. This Buccaneer offense looks great on paper and could be effective from Day One, so depending on how things go in the preseason, Evans is either a high-end #4 fantasy WR or 1-2 spots lower on a fantasy depth chart.

2. Brandin Cooks, NO

School: Oregon State | Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 189 | 40: 4.33 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 1st round, 20th overall

 

Bio: Two-year starter named to numerous all-America teams last season after career-best receiving totals of 128 catches, 1730 yards, and 16 TDs. Also averaged 6 yards on 12 punt returns. Sophomore totals included 67 receptions, 1151 yards, and 5 TDs.

 

Scouting Report: Cooks did just fine this past season at Oregon State with WR Markus Wheaton heading to the NFL, as he led the NCAA with 133 receiving yards per game, helping him capture the Biletnikoff Award (top WR). And his stock continued to climb in February when he ran a sizzling 4.33 40-time at the combine, which led this year’s receiver class. Cooks lined up all over the field at Oregon State, but he’s likely not an X in the pros because of his lack of bulk and length (think DeSean Jackson). He also had a delayed release and some false steps off the line of scrimmage, which he’ll need to clean up. Tough press coverage guys could give him fits, so he should play mostly out of the slot or at Z. Cooks certainly can beat press coverage with quickness in college – he can go from 0-to-60 in a flash – and he knows how to stack defensive backs and get deep. He doesn’t have great long speed, but he’s very explosive and sudden, fluid in-and-out of his breaks, and he easily separates at the top of his route stem. Cooks could be devastating in the screen game, since he’s tremendous after the catch, but he’ll need to focus on getting up field on those types of plays. He doesn’t make many contested catches and needs more work competing against DBs for balls. Cooks also has a tendency to “double catch” passes, and he doesn’t have the largest catching radius. He will mix it up with cornerbacks but is still a poor blocker, and he wasn’t a strong return guy in college. He’s drawn some comparisons to Tavon Austin, as Cooks is a little bigger but less explosive, but he has the chance to be a playmaker with the ball in his hands and a dynamic weapon. Note: Here’s a clip of us interviewing Cooks on the radio in early-April.

 

Fantasy Analysis: This looks like a slam-dunk pick for the Saints, as HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees get their latest toy to replace some of the production left by former RB Darren Sproles, and a little from Lance Moore as well. The Saints looked slower on offense last season, and Cooks will certainly bring plenty of speed. He’ll make his impact felt as a deep threat and as a player out in space, and he could be frightening in the Saints’ already prolific screen game. Cooks was the best multi-dimensional player in this year’s draft, and he landed in a perfect spot to be used properly. He’ll be used a lot inside, but he can line up anywhere, and he’ll also see time on the outside because he can do different things there than lining up inside. His intangibles are off the charts, and Payton will make sure to take advantage of Cooks’ lightning quickness. He’s a nice upside-oriented #4 fantasy wideout this year.

 

3. Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG

School: Louisiana State | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 198 | 40: 4.43 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 1st round, 28th overall

 

Bio: Three-year starter productive as a receiver and return specialist. Junior totals last season included 59 receptions, 1152 receiving yards, and 8 TDs. Also averaged 26.4 yards on 32 kick returns. Sophomore totals included 43 receptions, 713 yards, and 2 TDs. Awarded multiple all-America and all-conference honors last season.

 

Scouting Report: Beckham has the athletic bloodlines working in his favor, as his father played running back at LSU and his mother was an All-American track athlete for the Tigers. Beckham is fast but is fluid at the same time, as he’s a strong route-runner, knows how to attack cornerbacks to get open, and separates at the top of his route stem. He played all over the field at LSU, and he also has the ability to return kicks and punts at the next level. He creates after the catch and on returns, so he has some playmaking ability. Beckham is a savvy and polished player, finding holes against zone coverage and consistently beating man coverage. Beckham has incredibly strong hands and attacks the ball, although he does have some focus drops at time. He also uses his strong hands to work out of press coverage at the line of scrimmage, and he has a pretty large catching radius. Beckham isn’t the biggest receiver available, but he plays with toughness and is willing to run block. In fact, our Greg Cosell was really impressed with his willingness to lay out block on tape. He will get a little cautious going over the middle at times, and he scored just 12 receiving TDs as a three-year starter.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Beckham’s former LSU roommate Rueben Randle hasn’t progressed as well as they’ve hoped, so he might not get to officially start Week One, since Beckham will be given every opportunity to win the job. He should make an immediate impact next season as the Giants’ #2 WR, and he’ll make this offense more dynamic at the position with his game-breaking speed. Ultimately, Beckham should, in fact, start Day One, so the progress of this new Giant offense needs to be watched this summer as they transition to a West Coast scheme. It’s a healthy change for this offense, since there will be more designed plays, which is something that can also help Randle. Beckham doesn’t look like a player you’ll want to draft even as a #4, unless you’re willing to take on some risk with the upside. Otherwise, he’s obviously a terrific bench threat with legit top-30 potential if things go well.

 

4. Sammy Watkins, Buf

School: Clemson | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 211 | 40: 4.43 | Year: 3Jr

 

Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-America honors since his freshman season. Junior totals included 101 receptions, 1464 receiving yards, and 12 TDs.

 

Drafted: 1st round, 4th overall

 

Scouting Report: Watkins looks as close to a sure thing in this year’s draft as any other prospect, and he’ll likely step onto the field and make an immediate impact next season. Our guy Greg Cosell believes that Watkins is the best WR prospect since A.J. Green and Julio Jones came out in the 2011 draft, which is certainly high praise. Watkins tested slightly above average at the combine, but he showed plenty on the field over the last three years to solidify his spot in the top 10 of the draft. Watkins can line up all over the field, and he’s a rare dynamic receiver who can fill any hole, including the Z. He excels on underneath routes, and he’s a beast picking up yardage after the catch because of his short-area burst. He can separate down the field, but his one glaring weakness is tracking deep passes. Watkins registered a 34-inch vertical jump and will go up and make contested catches. He can beat press coverage, is fluid out of his breaks, and has strong hands to finish the play. Watkins is also an excellent kick returner and could fill that role if he’s asked to at the next level. He is a tough player who will lower his shoulder to pick up yardage, and he’s a willing blocker who mixes it up with CBs. Off the field, he can be immature at times and was arrested in 2012 on drug possession charges, but few are talking about him being a potential problem going forward. 

 

Fantasy Analysis: The Bills gave up an awful lot to move up in the draft to select the #1 WR prospect, so you can fully expect Watkins to be prominently featured in their passing game. Watkins is the real deal and a complete package, so he can make an immediate fantasy impact. Watkins is a special talent, and the offensive-minded Doug Marrone will feature him right away, but the concern is that EJ Manuel could hold him back. Watkins could turn out to be good enough to rise above just average QB play, and he’s a big run-after-the-catch guy, so they should get him the ball on short and well-defined routes. Watkins will make Manuel better, and you’d like to see it the other way around, but he’s a worthy #4 fantasy WR.

 

5. Marqise Lee, Jac

School: Southern California | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 192 | 40: 4.52 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 2nd round, 39th overall

 

Bio: Three-year starter honored with all-America and all-conference honors throughout his career. Junior totals included 57 receptions, 791 yards, and 4 TDs after career-best numbers of 118 receptions, 1721 yards, and 14 TDs as a sophomore.

 

Scouting Report: Lee was once considered a can’t-miss prospect like Sammy Watkins, but his stock fell off since his Biletnikoff Award winning 2012 season. Lee had a junior season to forget because of a slew of injuries (shoulder, leg, and knee), uneven quarterback play, and mid-season coaching changes. But at his best, Lee lined up at every receiver spot (mostly at Z) and has shown that he can be a dynamic playmaker. He does have good long speed and can accelerate out of breaks, and he can be a savvy route-runner when he’s giving effort. Lee isn’t afraid to mix it up with cornerbacks and is good against press coverage. He’s not exactly a physical receiver, but he will fight for balls. Lee has great vision, which makes him valuable as a kick returner and helps him pick up a lot of yardage after the catch. Lee has a ton of ability but his lack of effort at times is by far the biggest concern heading into the NFL. He’s also dropped a number of passes during his career, so he’s also inconsistent with his hands. Lee isn’t a very big guy, so we have to wonder if he’ll have durability issues his entire career after an injury-plagued 2013 campaign (there is still a knee issue lingering). Compared to Jeremy Maclin, Lee is a little smoother and more explosive than Maclin, but similarly he’s a movement guy who can be put in motion, so he’s multi-dimensional.

 

Fantasy Analysis: The Jaguars drafted Lee and Allen Robinson in the 2nd round to get them on the field immediately. Lee could be involved in a productive relationship with fellow rookie Blake Bortles, but it could take more than a year for this offense to really hit its stride. In the meantime, Lee will likely work with Chad Henne for most of the 2014 season. Rookie QBs typically play right away these days, but in Bortles’ case he’ll likely sit for most (if not all) of the season. Lee should fit perfectly into Jedd Fisch’s offense that is predicated on picking up yards after the catch, so Lee just needs to stay healthy. Marqise has a strong pedigree, and he’ll likely be a Week One starter, so he could easily be one of the 2-3 best rookie wideouts if this offense improves with the veteran Henne having more to work with this year.

 

For WRs 6-20 plus more and keeper and dynasty WR rankings with comments, order now!

  

Tight Ends

 

1. Eric Ebron, Det

School: North Carolina | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 250 | 40: 4.60 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 1st round, 10th overall

 

Bio: Two-year starter who led North Carolina with 62 receptions and 973 receiving yards last season, also adding 3 TDs. Sophomore totals included 40 receptions for 625 yards.

 

Scouting Report: Ebron had been compared to Vernon Davis coming into this year’s draft, primarily because Ebron had the chance to be the highest drafted tight end since Davis went #6 to the 49ers in the 2006 draft. Ebron isn’t nearly the physical freak that Davis was coming out of Maryland, but Ebron did break Davis’ single-season ACC record for receiving yards by a tight end. Ebron isn’t as fast as Davis, but with outstanding fluidity and movement, he might be a better overall athlete than the current 49er TE. In fact, Ebron ran a faster 40-yard dash than his former teammate Giovani Bernard, and the former Tar Heels actually had a bet riding on it. Ebron isn’t yet a finished product and he struggled at his pro day, dropping a number of passes and looking sloppy in drills. It’s a little disconcerting, since most players excel at pro days in a controlled environment, and he does have a tendency at times to leave you wanting more on the field. He’s basically a wide receiver in a tight end’s body, as he’s athletic with great ball skills. Ebron has good speed, quickness, and he wins at the jump point, catching the ball away from his body. Ebron can play in-line and out of the slot, so he can be used to create mismatches. He can also create after the catch, picking up chunks of yardage with a great burst. Ebron needs to improve his route running – he did run a lot of pro-style routes in college – and his hands can be inconsistent at times.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Ebron clearly has the most potential of any of the tight ends in this year’s draft class, and he’ll get his chance to be fantasy relevant immediately. Ebron is a stud talent and a matchup nightmare, and he’ll be on the field from Day 1, as Brandon Pettigrew isn’t anything special. This is a really good spot for Ebron to land as new OC Joe Lombardi could use Ebron like the Saints did with Jimmy Graham, where Lombardi was an assistant. That means that Ebron could be moved all over the field to create mismatches for opposing defenses who already have their hands full trying to cover Calvin Johnson. And Ebron was lucky enough to land not only on the same team as Megatron, but with an elite arm talent at QB inMatthew Stafford.

 

2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB

School: Washington | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 262 | 40: NA | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 2nd round, 38th overall

 

Bio: Three-year starter who finished with 36 receptions, 450 yards, and 8 TDs last year. Sophomore totals included 69 receptions, 850 yards, and 7 TDs. Suspended for the season opener in 2013 following DUI.

 

Scouting Report: Seferian-Jenkins won the Mackey Award (nation’s top TE) last year, but he captured the award based more on name recognition than his actual play. His production on the field has actually regressed a bit since his freshman season, and some of it is based on scheme changes in the Washington offense. He lined up all over the field (in-line, wing, slot, and backfield) at Washington, so he has some versatility despite his size. Seferian-Jenkins catches everything that’s thrown his way because of his huge frame and long catch radius. He’s got great body control and good sideline awareness, which helped him to be one of the top red-zone threats in college football, with 21 TDs in three seasons. Seferian-Jenkins runs and moves well for his size, showing some agility and the ability to get up the seam. He’s physical during and after the catch, and he was relied on heavily as an in-line blocker and has a nasty streak, although he still has room for growth in that department. But his natural athleticism is obvious – he is the first Washington athlete to play both football and basketball since Nate Robinson, who plays in the NBA. That said, he needs to play with more urgency, especially as a route-runner. Off the field, he missed the team’s season opener last year because of a suspension stemming from a DUI conviction from a single-car wreck last spring, so he’s got some character questions (although we’ve heard rumblings that he’s not a bad kid). He also needed surgery to fix a broken pinkie, and his toughness has been questioned, so he’s got some red flags. On top of that, doctors discovered a stress fracture in his right foot at the combine, which prevented him from working out and required surgery at the end of February. Note: Here’s a clip of us interviewing Seferian-Jenkins in late-April.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Tim Wright was a good story last year, but he’s a former WR and this is a new offense and coaching staff, and the Bucs felt they needed an upgrade at tight end, and they certainly got better by drafting this talented player. Seferian-Jenkins has the chance to be an impact blocker, which will get him on the field immediately, and he’s also a dangerous weapon in the red zone because of his size. He’s yet another tree for QBJosh McCown to throw the ball to this season. Seferian-Jenkins is a good blocker, and he has some legit upside as a receiver, so he has a chance to be fantasy relevant from Week One of his NFL career.

 

3. Jace Amaro, NYJ

School: Texas Tech | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 265 | 40: 4.74 | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 2nd round, 49th overall

 

Bio: Full-time starter the past two seasons, posting career numbers of 106 receptions, 1352 yards, and 7 TDs last season. Missed six games during the 2012 season after suffering internal bleeding from a hit taken during the West Virginia contest. Finished the year with 25 receptions, 409 yards, and 4 TDs.

 

Scouting Report: Amaro is the top “move TE” in this year’s draft, as he spent the majority of last season working out of the slot in Texas Tech’s pass-happy scheme. He technically set a tight end single-season NCAA record with 1352 receiving yards last year, but the NCAA couldn’t decide what position he played, as he finished as a semifinalist for both the Mackey Award (top TE) and the Biletnikoff Award (top WR), winning neither. Amaro is a natural athlete and tested well at the combine, as he’s fluid off the line and can get up the seam to stretch opposing defenses. He didn’t run a full route tree at Texas Tech, but he has the tools to turn into a strong route runner and has strong awareness to find soft spots against zone coverage. Amaro has reliable and soft hands, and with a big body and a wide catch radius, he makes plays after the catch. He lacks top-end speed and can struggle to create separation at times because he’s not quick out of his breaks. He’s also not overly strong at the catch point on contested balls, despite his size. Amaro gives great effort as a blocker on the perimeter and at the second level, but he had very few reps as an in-line blocker during his junior season. Our Greg Cosell saw Amaro as a smoother Jason Witten, which is just fine for our purposes. Note: Here's a clip of us interviewing Amaro from 4/24.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Amaro projects as a move tight end at the next level, but he will try to show that he can block good enough to play in-line, as well. The Jets will try to carve out a role for Amaro right away, so he has a chance to be one of the top rookie tight end fantasy producers. Amaro put up major production at Texas Tech playing out of the slot, but he told us he can block well and we think he's right, so he has some really nice upside if the Jet quarterback play is decent.

 

4. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou

School: Iowa | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 265 | 40: 4.76 | Year: 4Sr

 

Drafted: 3rd round, 65th overall

 

Bio: Full-time starter the past two seasons, posting 45 receptions and 433 receiving yards as a junior.

 

Scouting Report: Fiedorowicz is a solid, well-rounded tight end prospect who has the huge frame required to play many years as an in-line player. He is a real throwback at the position because of his ability as both a receiver and as a blocker. Fiedorowicz can play all over the field as well, as he runs pretty well for his size (6’5”, 265 pounds) and has deceptive movement and athletic skills. He actually has room to get even bigger, and he needs to get stronger to become an even better blocker. Fiedorowicz also needs to get a little nastier in the trenches to finish off his blocks, but he has the size to seal of lanes in the running game and a strong reputation as a blocker. Fiedorowicz catches just about everything that’s thrown his way because of his strong hands and large catch radius, so he could develop into a quarterback’s security blanket. He also has good body control for a big man, but he’ll never blow anyone away with flashy plays. He can go over the middle and catch passes in traffic, and he’s a tough runner after the catch, plowing through defenders to pick up extra yardage. Fiedorowicz also has a burst in the open field with some straight-line speed down the seam, but he isn’t elusive after the catch.

 

Fantasy Analysis: Fiedorowicz could end up being the best tight end in this draft class, as he was an underutilized weapon in college that landed in the best possible spot. New HC Bill O’Brien loves to get his tight ends involved in his offenses, and he could see the field early in his career.Fiedorowicz is a complete tight end who will play with Rob Gronkowski’s old coach in a TE-friendly offense. And he has some Gronk in him. Still, Fiedorowicz has to emerge as a viable target over Garrett Graham and Ryan Griffin, so he has some work to do before he’s a fantasy factor.

 

5. Troy Niklas, Ari

School: Notre Dame | Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 270 | 40: NA | Year: 3Jr

 

Drafted: 2nd round, 52nd overall

 

Bio: Former outside linebacker who moved to tight end as a sophomore in 2012. Posted 32 receptions, 498 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns last season.

 

Scouting Report: Notre Dame (Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert, and Niklas) and Stanford (Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz, and Levine Toilolo) are having quite the battle churning out tight ends in recent years. The Fighting Irish apparently have a good eye for finding them, converting Niklas from outside linebacker to an imposing, athletic tight end. He looks like the complete package, with the size and athleticism to get it done as both a receiver and as a blocker. Niklas is a Rob Gronkowski-type of player, in that he’s a more “traditional TE” with good athleticism, even though he doesn’t have much playing time at TE under his belt. He’s not a quick-twitch, athletic beast who can go get balls like Gronk, but Niklas is fluid and moves exceptionally well for his size, and he has plenty of receiving ability. Niklas is more of an old-school type TE because he’s essentially like having an extra offensive lineman on the field. He could, ideally, get a little stronger in his base, but he has a lot of potential as a blocker, especially since he’s still learning the offensive side of the game. Niklas could use some refinement as a route-runner, but he runs a full tree and shows some sharp cuts out of breaks. He uses his size and physicality to his advantage throughout his routes, but he doesn’t use those same traits after the catch, so he can get better. He’s an absolutely huge target in the middle of the field, and he could turn into a dangerous weapon in the red zone. 

Fantasy Analysis: The Cardinals and HC Bruce Arians clearly aren’t enamored with current starting TE Rob Housler, so they used 2nd-round pick on a big TE. Niklas has a rare combination of size, movement, and athletic ability, so he has a chance to be a force at the position for years to come. Niklas has the physical tools to be a top NFL TE and is a great blocker, and Arians loves TEs like him, so he has a chance to play right away. We expect the Cardinals to give Niklas every opportunity to win the starting job out of training camp. We believe he has a chance to develop into a top TE in a few years, but we should point out that we were told the Cards really wanted Austin Seferian-Jenkins, so they “settled” on Niklas.

 

For TEs 6-10 plus more and keeper and dynasty WR rankings with comments, order now!

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This year’s rookie report was a collaborative effort that included our entire staff, as well as key personnel contributors Greg Cosell and Tony Pauline

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