Thursday, May 1, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #7 (2014 SOS Analysis - Part I)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #7
Published, May 1, 2014
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #7: 2014 SOS Analysis (Part I) - 5/1

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2014 SOS Analysis (Part I)


by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 5/1/14 

These are an unusual two weeks here at the very end of April and the first week of May. We’re usually slammed at this very moment breaking down all the ramifications of the draft, but this year, we’re just doing our best to fend off paralysis by over-analysis, and we’re trying to ignore all the speculative talk, which will be mostly meaningless in 10 days anyway.
 
We’ve studied all the key players, and we know what they bring to the table as they move on to the next level. But getting involved in the draft predicting game isn’t my bag. I’m simply here to try to get it right for fantasy, and we’re lost until we know where the 60+ quality offensive prospects in this year’s draft will play.
 
So rather than post a mock draft to showcase how little I know about how this year’s draft will unfold, like everyone else, I’ve been spending my time the last few weeks doing something that is actually productive, like pouring over stats to get the clearest picture that I possibly can of roughly this year’s top-300 offensive players.
 
I’ve also been inspecting the newly-released schedule, and I’ve spent more time than ever checking out each of the 250+ matchups that we’ll see in 2014.
 
With fewer shutdown and “get-well” defenses in the league, and with significant turnover in terms of personnel and coaching staffs each year, I understand that strength of schedule analysis is less important than it was 10 years ago. So each year when I begin to offer up SOS analysis for the upcoming season, the first thing I do is review what I wrote the year before to see how much of it actually meant something.
 
Our usually-strong SOS analysis was a little more hit-or-miss in 2011-2012, but I was pleased to see that the insight and analysis was, overall, about 80% accurate in 2013. So SOS is something I still seriously consider when handicapping things for fantasy football. I’m especially interested when a schedule looks unusually easy or difficult, and especially when it comes to players who have issues like a deteriorating skill set, poor supporting cast, durability problems, etc. These types of players need some help, and the schedule can sometimes bring that help. 
 
Last year, my SOS analysis emphasized the favorable schedules for running games in KC, Den, and Dal, and the passing games in KC, Den, SD, Dal, Phi, Cin, Ari, Pit, and Chi. I also expressed concern over the matchups for the running games in Buf, Bal, NO, Atl, Car, and NE, and the passing games in SF, Sea, and Stl. So the SOS stuff was pretty much on point in 2013.
 
Perhaps one reason why our schedule analysis is a little more accurate than something else you might see online is because I don’t focus on the numbers from the season before. I project SOS by assigning a number grade to each defense against the run and the pass, based on current personnel, scheme, etc.
 
Those grades are currently incomplete with the draft still ahead of us, but with the draft talk getting out of control with these extra two weeks, I felt like cranking out something substantial that doesn’t have to do with the festivities in midtown Manhattan next week.  
 
After the draft, I’ll be updating all my numbers and adjusting analysis where needed, and we’ll post the updated version of this article online in May.
 
Below, I’ll cover my top-10 rushing/passing offenses that should benefit from the schedule, my top-5 teams that should be hurt by their matchups, my current 2014 SOS rankings, and then I’ll cover all 32 teams with a quick but comprehensive look at their matchups for 2014.
 
Let’s start with the positives.
 
  1. The Houston Texans against the run – Veteran RB Arian Foster and friends did also have a good-looking schedule last year, and while it didn’t really work out for Foster, he did average 4.5 YPC in 2013, which was his best since 2010 and much better than his 4.0 in 2012. So the schedule probably did help, and it should again in 2014. Foster is going to be a tough call no matter what, given his injury issues and the change in coaching staffs and schemes, but I see five favorable matchups and only one tough one, which definitely helps. Their schedule is: Was, Oak, NYG, Buf, Dal, Ind, Pit, Ten, Phi, Cle, Cin, Ten, Jac, Ind, Bal, and Jac. This ranks as the best SOS in 2014 against the run based on my projections, and Houston comes in as the 4th-best based on 2013’s numbers and this year’s schedule in our SOS tool. This is also a good schedule against the pass.
  1. The NY Giant passing game – The Giants have OL issues and are transitioning to a new offense (West Coast), but the change in scheme might be a positive, since there will be more well-defined plays for Eli Manning and his receivers to make. The previous system seemed to get stale and was too reliant on improvisation. There is more structure to the new offense, and Manning is as smart as they come at the position, so he should pick it up quickly (even though he’s going to miss time this off-season) and they should have some success. They could have a surprising level of success based on their easy schedule. By my count, half of their matchups are clearly favorable, and that’s a high percentage. They have Det, Ari, Hou, Was, Atl, Phi, Dal, Ind, Sea, SF, Dal, Jac, Ten, Was, Stl, and Phi. They’re clearly helped by playing in the NFC East, where the defenses were bad in 2013 and will likely be very beatable again in 2014. This schedule ranks as the 3rd-easiest, according to my projected SOS and 4th easiest per our SOS tool.
  1. The Buffalo Bills against the pass – QB EJ Manuel rarely practiced last year and was in-and-out of the lineup, which compounded the problem that he was a player who lacked polish coming out of college. He had some red flags, like his mechanical issues from the waist down, a shaky pocket presence, and a questionable ability to process information quickly. However, the team has assembled an intriguing receiving corps, and if they land stud TE Eric Ebron with the 9th-overall pick, Manuel’ssupporting cast at the skill positions will really be interesting. Manuel needs help, and a TE can be a QB’s best friend. But he’s already getting help from the schedule. I don’t see a great pass defense on it, and I see several favorable matchups: Chi, Mia, SD, Hou, Det, NE, Min, NYJ, KC, Mia, NYJ, Cle, Den, GB, Oak, and NE. This schedule ranks (for now) as my easiest against the pass in 2014, which should help. It ranks as the 9th-best per our SOS tool.
  1. The New Orleans Saints against the pass – Drew Brees’ schedule was a slight concern this time last year, as I outlined in my SOS article last spring. While he still posted huge numbers, the schedule did hurt him at times late in the season. It’s a different story this year, though. Right now I don’t see an elite corner on the schedule other than Joe Haden, and there are a ton of secondaries that Sean Payton and Brees should be able to break down and moved the ball well against. Keep this quiet, but I love Kenny Stills this year. They have Atl, Cle, Min, Dal, TB, Det, GB, Car, SF, Cin, Bal, Pit, Car, Chi, Atl, and TB. This schedule ranks as only the 14th-best per our SOS tool, but I have it projected based on 2014 personnel as the 2nd-best. 
  1. The Indianapolis Colts against the run – This is obviously a key point for Trent Richardson, who looked like a broken-down player in 2013. Clearly, a lot of Richardson’s problems were mental, and he missed a lot of big holes because he was looking for the big run and he consistently stopped his feet in the backfield, which you just can’t do as a RB in the NFL. But if he’s healthy and more comfortable in 2014, there’s solid potential in an offense that will move the ball, likely eat up a lot of clock, and with a schedule that checks in on my early list as being one of the top-5 easiest against the run. They have Den, Phi, Jac, Ten, Bal, Hou, Cin, Pit, NYG, NE, Jac, Was, Cle, Hou, Dal, and Ten. That’s not a cakewalk schedule, but it’s pretty solid. This schedule ranks s my 4th-easiest against the pass in 2014 and the 3rd-best per our SOS tool.
  1. The NY Jets against the run – A favorable schedule is helpful because it’s going to be a dual backfield, so the production will be split up between at least Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory, and because Johnson is a less-than-ideal lead back at this point. But it’s worth noting that Johnson is incredibly durable (he even played hurt last year with a meniscus issue) and Ivory is still a player I’m not convinced can stay healthy (even though he did in 2013 other than one game missed). I can’t help but think about Johnson’s sneaky value this year if Ivory misses time and Johnson’s afforded 20 touches a game against Oak, GB, Chi, Det, SD, Den, NE, Buf, KC, Pit, Buf, Mia, Min, Ten, NE, and Mia. I don’t see a shutdown defense on this schedule, and I see several favorable matchups. This schedule comes in as the 2nd-best against the run per my projection, and also as the 8h-best per our SOS tool.
  1. The Indianapolis Colts against the pass – I’m admittedly always looking for positives for QB Andrew Luck, but you can’t help but be encouraged by the state of Luck’s receiving corps right now compared to the second half of the season, when it was essentially T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener (who was inconsistent). I don’t see a single matchup on their schedule that I view as tough, and while I see only three that are clearly favorable, the schedule overall looks very good. They have Den, Phi, Jac, and Ten to open the season, and that’s a great 4-week run. Then they have Bal, Hou, Cin, Pit, NYG, NE, Jac, Was, Cle, Hou, Dal, and Ten. That is a very good schedule. This schedule actually checks in as only the 15th best against the pass according to my projections, but it does come up as the 5th-best per our SOS tool.
  1. The Arizona Cardinals against the pass – It’s surprising to see a team in the same division as the Seahawks and 49ers have a favorable schedule against the pass, but there are two factors here. First and foremost, they’re playing the weak NFC East. Second, the Niners are very thin right now at CB and might be in trouble in the secondary this year. Things are setting up well for Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians in their second year together, with the left side of their OL looking very strong, and with this schedule: SD, NYG, SF, Den, Was, Oak, Phi, Dal, Stl, Det, Sea, Atl, KC, Stl, Sea, and SF. Seattle in Week Sixteen is a problem, but this schedule looks very good. This schedule comes in as the 11th-best against the pass on my chart and only the 17th-best per our SOS tool, but I do like the high number of easier matchups.
  1. The Denver Broncos against the run – There is a nasty stretch in the first half of the season, so that is a concern for the still-unproven Montee Ball. They start out with Ind and KC, which are decent enough matchups. But then Denver gets Sea, Ari, NYJ, and SF, which is a nasty four-game stretch. However, after that it looks really good against SD, NE, Oak, Stl, Mia, KC, Buf, SD, Cin, and Oak. This schedule actually comes in as the 14th-best per my projections, but our SOS tool has it as the 2nd-hardest for RBs.
  1. The New England Patriots against the run – I’m isolating this team because the schedule looks pretty good (but not unbelievably great), and mainly because a guy like Stevan Ridley needs some help on the heels of an ugly 2013 season. He’s in the final year of his rookie deal, they let LeGarrette Blount walk, and they didn’t bring in anyone else in free agency. So you have to think that Ridley will have a good chance to collect 250+ carries, assuming he doesn’t put the ball on the ground. They get Mia, Min, Oak, KC, Cin, Buf, NY, Chi, Den, Ind, Det, GB, SD, Mia, NYJ, and Buf. The Jets twice is tough, as is the Lions, but the schedule looks good otherwise. Our SOS tool has this schedule as the 12th-hardest, but my projection has them as the 4th-easiest.
There are clearly more favorable matchups for the passing games this year, so let’s see if there are a higher number of tougher ones for the run in 2014 by looking at the top-5 tough schedules that I see right now before the draft. Spoiler alert: There are.
 
  1. The Atlanta Falcons against the run – Oh, boy. This schedule looks pretty bad. They haven’t signed a back in free agency, and it doesn’t seem like they are poised to use an earlier pick on a back who can push Steven Jackson. They still could, but Jackson looks like their guy for one more year. Unfortunately, he’ll be 31 years old with a ton of tread on his tires, and that schedule looks really tough: NO, Cin, Min, NYG, Chi, Bal, Det, TB, Car, Cle, Ari, GB, Pit, NO, and Car. That stretch of games against Bal, Det, TB, Car, Cle, and Ari looks pretty nasty, so I don’t plan on having the aged Jackson on any of my teams. This schedule is dead last in both my projected SOS and our SOS tool.
  1. The Pittsburgh Steelers against the run – I really liked Le’Veon Bell last year, and I’m still sold on him despite some lackluster moments in 2013. They had some OL injuries, but his YPC average was still poor, and he didn’t exactly excel in short-yardage, which makes the addition of LeGarrette Blount a little worrisome. Bell is a lot more talented and much more versatile, so I highly doubt that Blount is going to ruin him the way he ruined Steven Ridley. However, I have to admit that Bell’s schedule does give me some pause when I handicap him for 2014. I count seven tough matchups with a schedule that consists of: Cle, Bal, Car, TB, Jac, Cle, Hou, Ind, Bal, NYJ, Ten, NO, Cin, Atl, KC, and Cin. This schedule ranks as the 3rd-hardest in my projected SOS and the 5th-hardest in our SOS tool.
  1. The St. Louis Rams against the run – The team is high on Zac Stacy, and he’s set to handle a large role in this backfield for sure, but Stacy has the unenviable task of playing in the tough NFC West, and it shows because I tentatively have them with the second-hardest schedule against the run this year. For what it’s worth, our SOS Tool has them as the 10th-hardest using 2013’s data. Almost every trouble spot is within Stacy’s division: Min, TB, Dal, Phi, SF, Sea, KC, SF, Ari, Den, SD, Oak, Was, Ari, NYG, and Sea. At least that second Seattle matchup is Week Seventeen, which could be meaningless to you.
  1. Green Bay Packers against the run – It was great to see Eddie Lacy back up the hype we gave him last summer, and I’m certainly not down on Lacy, but I’ve been unsure as to whether or not he is worth a #1 pick this year. I have to still think about it and see where the ADP settles, but as of right now, I would pass on Lacy in the first. That’s due in part to a tough schedule. He starts out against three of the five best run defenses in the league last year with Sea, NYJ, and Det. It then gets better, but I see some trouble spots against Car, NO, TB, and Det again. Now, having Aaron Rodgers on the field for 16 games will really help, but there’s no denying the schedule looks tough for Lacy. If there’s a silver lining it’s that our SOS tool has them with only the 15th-hardest schedule.
  1. New Orleans Saints against the run – We all know the Saints don’t truly commit to running the ball, so it’s not a tragedy that their schedule is tough, especially since Pierre Thomas led all RBs with 77 catches on only 84 targets. But Thomas was contained against some good defenses late last season, and he’ll see plenty of them this year against: Atl, Cle, Min, Dal, TB, Det, GB, Car, SF, Cin, Bal, Pit, Car, Chi, Atl, and TB. There are some solid matchups in there, and our SOS tool actually has them as the 15th-easiest schedule, but there are up to 10 matchups that are below average. 
After the draft, I’ll update my grades for each team against the run and the pass, which will affect my rankings, but as of now, here’s how I project the schedules against the run and the pass to stack up this year.

Rnk
Team
Avg. Grade vs. Run
 
Rnk
Team
Avg. Grade vs. Pass
1
Houston
85.38
 
1
Buffalo
85.19
2
NY Jets
85.56
 
2
New Orleans
85.19
3
Jacksonville
85.81
 
3
NY Giants
85.31
4
Indianapolis
85.88
 
4
Tampa Bay
85.31
5
New England
85.94
 
5
Chicago
85.38
6
Miami
86.13
 
6
Houston
85.38
7
NY Giants
86.13
 
7
New England
85.38
8
Tennessee
86.13
 
8
Tennessee
85.38
9
Philadelphia
86.19
 
9
Baltimore
85.50
10
Washington
86.19
 
10
Miami
85.50
11
Arizona
86.31
 
11
Arizona
85.56
12
Buffalo
86.31
 
12
Denver
85.56
13
Detroit
86.31
 
13
Jacksonville
85.56
14
Denver
86.44
 
14
Seattle
85.59
15
Kansas City
86.44
 
15
Indianapolis
85.63
16
Minnesota
86.50
 
16
Minnesota
85.63
17
Chicago
86.56
 
17
Kansas City
85.69
18
Cleveland
86.56
 
18
NY Jets
85.69
19
Dallas
86.56
 
19
Pittsburgh
85.69
20
Baltimore
86.63
 
20
Cincinnati
85.81
21
San Diego
86.63
 
21
Green Bay
85.81
22
Tampa Bay
86.63
 
22
Philadelphia
85.88
23
Green Bay
86.75
 
23
San Diego
85.88
24
San Fran
86.75
 
24
Washington
85.88
25
Seattle
86.75
 
25
Cleveland
85.94
26
Cincinnati
86.81
 
26
Dallas
85.94
27
Carolina
86.88
 
27
Detroit
85.94
28
New Orleans
86.94
 
28
Oakland
85.94
29
Oakland
86.94
 
29
Atlanta
86.00
30
Pittsburgh
87.06
 
30
Carolina
86.00
31
St. Louis
87.25
 
31
St. Louis
86.00
32
Atlanta
87.81
 
32
San Fran
86.19

You can also take a look at our SOS Tool, which has been populated with 2014’s schedule. It takes this year’s schedule and compares it to the points allowed by each team in 2013.
 
Team-by-Team Overviews
 
Arizona – The Cardinal schedule has some rougher spots due in large part to their divisional opponents, but it’s not that bad overall. They have five tough matchups against the run (SF, Det, Sea, Sea, and SF), but only two against the pass (both Seattle games). One of their two matchups against SF is in Week Seventeen, which won’t mean anything in many fantasy leagues. We see seven favorable matchups for QB Carson Palmer and the passing game and three for their running game, so the schedule looks easier for the pass.  The biggest problem with the Cardinal schedule is their Week Sixteen matchup against Seattle. The game is in Arizona, which helps, but Palmer had two mediocre games against the Seahawks last year and averaged only 15 fantasy points in his two games against them.
Weeks 13-16: Other than Week Sixteen, the schedule looks okay against Atl, KC, Stl, and Sea
 
Atlanta – We count eight tough matchups for the running game, which is not good news for the aged Steven Jackson, who looked only “decent” at times in 2013 and took forever to recover from a hamstring injury. The schedule is particularly tough the first half of the season, with 6 of their first 10 matchups being tough for the run (Cin, TB, Bal, Det, TB, and Car). The schedule is definitely better for the pass, with only two matchups that we deem as being tough (both against NO). QB Matt Ryan averaged just fewer than 300 yards passing in two games against the Saints last year, so the schedule for him and the receivers looks okay.
Weeks 13-16: About average against Ari, GB, Pit, and NO
 
Baltimore – The schedule looked prohibitive for the Ravens last year, particularly for their running game, and they didn’t exactly rise above it. It doesn’t look great again for RBs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, but at least their tougher matchups (Pit, Cle, Car, TB, Cin, and Pit) come earlier in the season. From Week Ten on the schedule does look fairly good against the run (Ten, NO, SD, Jac, Mia, Hou, Cle). The schedule looks better for QB Joe Flacco and the passing game, with only one tough matchup on paper (NO) and four easier ones (Ind, Ten, SD, Jac).
Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn good against SD, Mia, Jac, and Hou
 
Buffalo – We didn’t really like their schedule last year, especially for the run, and things didn’t work out all that well for C.J. Spiller (although Fred Jackson did a lot better than expected). It does look slightly better for the run this year, with only three tough matchups (Det, NYJ, and NYJ), so they have mostly medium matchups on the ground. The good news for the Bills is that the schedule looks very favorable against the pass. This is possibly the best schedule against the pass in the NFL this year, with matchups against (Chi, Mia, SD, NE, Min, NYJ, KC, Mia, NYJ, Cle, Den, GB, Oak, and NE).
Weeks 13-16: They have an appealing 4-week run against Cle, Den, GB, and Oak
 
Carolina – We didn’t have good things to say about their schedule against the run last year, and their running game was hardly dominant. This year, things look even tougher for DeAngelo Williams and maybe Jonathan Stewart, with 7-8 tougher matchups, especially early in the season when they start off against TB, Det, Pit, and Bal. We count 5 tougher matchups in their first 8 games. Their schedule does look easier against the pass, with at least 4 easier matchups in their final eight games (Phi, Atl, Min, and Atl). So as usual, QB Cam Newton is probably going to have to carry the offense – but this time throwing to a completely revamped (and weak) WR corps.
Weeks 13-16: Not too bad, at least for the pass, against Min, NO, TB, and Cle
 
Chicago – The Bear schedule looked good last year, and things generally worked out well and they took advantage of it. But it looks tougher in 2014, especially against the run. We count 8 tougher matchups for RB Matt Forte and the rushing attack (SF, NYJ, Car, TB, Det, NO, and Det). But the schedule does look easier for QB Jay Cutler and the passing game with (Atl, NE, Det, Min, Dal, Det, and Min). Playing in the NFC North with some shakier pass defenses does help.
Weeks 13-16: Tougher against the run but easier for the pass versus Det, Dal, NO, and Det
 
Cincinnati – Their schedule against the run looks a little tougher than against the pass, with up to 8-9 difficult matchups (Bal, Car, Bal, Cle, NO, TB, Pit, Cle, Pit), but overall the schedule doesn’t look brutal for RBs Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The schedule looks better for the pass than the run, with solid matchups against Atl, NE, Ind, Jac, Cle, Cle, and Den. Overall, we can’t say the schedule is favorable, but it’s hard to consider it prohibitive.
Weeks 13-16: Tougher for the run than the pass against TB, Pit, Cle, and Den
 
Cleveland – The Brown schedule against the run looked pretty tough in 2013, and while they traded their starting RB in September, they didn’t have much success running the ball. There will be a greater commitment to the ground game with Ben Tate added in free agency and with OC Kyle Shanahan bringing a commitment to the run, but their schedule is once again tougher. They have up to 8 difficult matchups on the ground (Pit, NO, Bal, Pit, TB, Cin, Cin, Car, and Bal). The Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses don’t look like shutdown defenses these days, at least. Their schedule against the pass doesn’t look great, but it’s a little better than against the run, with only 1-2 matchups that looks tough on paper, and those are NO and Buf and while those two defenses were good against the pass this past year, they were pretty bad covering forward passes as recently as 2012.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty decent overall against Buf, Ind, Cin, and Car
 
Dallas – The Cowboy schedule doesn’t look as good as 2013’s, but that was an unusually good schedule and was helped by some poor defenses in the NFC East. The East is still a good division to be playing in for favorable matchups, but RB DeMarco Murray has some tougher matchups against SF, NO, Sea, Ari, and NYJ. It’s not a huge problem for him because he can produce in the passing game as their do-it-all back, so as usual he just has to stay healthy. The schedule is better for QB Tony Romo and the passing game, with favorable matchups against Ten, Was, Jac, NYJ, Phi, Chi, Phi, Ind, and Was. Their two troubling matchups (NO and Sea) come in the first half of the season, and the schedule looks very good for their passing game in the second half of the season.
Weeks 13-16: Very good on paper against Phi, Chi, Phi, and Ind
 
Denver – We went on and on about how great Denver’s schedule looked last year, and the Broncos took full advantage and ended up having what many believe to be the greatest offensive season in history. It’s not as easy in 2014, but they still benefit from playing in the weaker AFC West. The schedule is indisputably tough against the run in the first half of the season, though. Montee Ball will have to square off against tough run defenses like Sea, Ari, NYJ, and SF very early in the season, but things do get much easier in the second half with matchups against SD, NE, Oak, Stl, Mia, KC, Buf, SD, Cin, and Oak. So if you don’t draft Ball, prepare to trade for him early in the season if he has a so-so September. As for Peyton Manning and the passing game, the schedule looks easier, with only one truly problematic matchup (Sea in Week Three) and several solid ones against Ind, KC, NYJ, SD, NE, Oak, Stl, Mia, KC, SD, Cin, and Oak. It looks like Manning and the Broncos still have a top-12 schedule against the pass this year.
Weeks 13-16: Not bad at all against KC, Buf, SD, and Cin
 
Detroit – The Lion schedule is very up-and-down when it comes to ease. They have some rough matchups against the run like NYJ, NO, Ari, and TB, but they also have some nice matchups against Buf, Atl, and Min and Chi twice. Overall, it ranks in the top half of the league in terms of ease against the run. Their schedule against the pass could wind up being tougher than expected, but it could just as easily wind up being favorable. Other than possibly NO, Buf, and Ari, their schedule looks fine and beatable.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty good overall against Chi, TB, Min, and Chi
 
Green Bay – There are some schedule concerns for the Packers in 2014, at least for RB Eddie Lacy. It’s great that he’ll have a healthy Aaron Rodgers to start the season because Lacy is going to need some support in September going up against 3 of the top-5 run defenses from last year in Sea, NYJ, and Det to open the season. He also has Car, NO, TB, and Det again so he could have as many as 7 rough matchups. The schedule looks better for Rodgers and the passing game, with matchups against Det, Chi, Min, Car, Chi, Phi, Min, NE, Atl, and Det looking favorable on paper going into 2014.
Weeks 13-16: Not too shabby against NE, Atl, Buf, and TB.
 
Houston – The Texans had a good schedule in 2013, particularly in the second half of the season, but Arian Foster wasn’t around to take advantage. But luckily for Foster, the Texans get a schedule that looks even better in 2014, with good matchups on paper against Was, Oak, Buf, Dal, Ind, Ten, Ten, Jac, Ind, and Jac. Some of those defenses like Washington or Jacksonville could be pretty solid, but that does look like a good schedule and easily ranks top-5 in terms of favorability this year. The schedule is also looking good for the pass, due to many of those same teams. Based on those matchups, the Texan passing game should have what ends up as being a top-12 schedule against the pass in 2014.
Weeks 13-16: Well above average against Ten, Jac, Ind, and Bal
 
Indianapolis – The Colts still have some OL concerns heading into 2014, but they at least should have a good (and possibly a great) receiving corps, and they definitely get some support from the schedule. Trent Richardson needs all the help he can get, and solid matchups against Phi, Jac, Jac, Was, Dal, and Ten look good on paper. Overall, they rank in the top-5 for ease against the run. The schedule looks just as good for QB Andrew Luck and the passing game, as Den, Phi, Jac, Ten, Jac, Was, Dal, and Ten look like beatable matchups.
Weeks 13-16: Promising enough against Was, Cle, Hou, and Dal
 
Jacksonville – The Jags played the NFC West last year, which made their schedule more difficult than usual, but it’s looking good in 2014. There are 1-2 tougher matchups against the run, but Toby Gerhart and the Jag running game should have favorable matchups against Ind, SD, Ten, Mia, Dal, Ind, and Ten. Overall, the Jags have a top-5 schedule against the run based on our projected SOS in 2014. Their schedule against the pass also looks very good on paper, with matchups that look good against Phi, Was, Ind, SD, Pit, Ten, Cle, Dal, Ind, and Ten. The Jaguars are hardly loaded with talent on offense, so they need some outside help to have success, and they should get just that in 2014 with their favorable schedule.
Weeks 13-16: Not great, but nothing particularly scary against NYG, Hou, Bal, and Ten
 
Kansas City – I wrote here last year how great the scheduled looked for Jamaal Charles, and his easier slate of matchups was one of the reasons he had such a monstrous season. It’s a little tougher this year, with matchups against SF, NYJ, Sea, and Ari, but there are also some matchups that should be good for Charles, like Ten, Stl, Buf, Oak, and Oak. The schedule looks slightly easier for QB Alex Smith and the passing game, as Ten, Den, NE, SD, Stl, NYJ, Buf, Oak, Den, Oak, Pit, and SD look like beatable matchups. The schedule isn’t as good in 2014 as it was last year, but it should still be a top-15 schedule against both the run and the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Could be worse against Den, Ari, Oak, and Pit
 
Miami – With nary a shutdown defense on the 2014 schedule, Miami’s slate of matchups looks favorable this year, but things are tougher for their running game in the second half of the season. New starter Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller have some solid matchups against Buf, KC, Oak, Chi, and Jac but some trickier ones after that against Det, NYJ, Bal, and NYJ (but at least that second Jet game is Week Seventeen). But overall, this looks like a top-12 schedule against the run. Against the pass, things look a little better with beatable-to-favorable matchups against Buf, KC, Oak, Chi, Jac, SD, Det, Buf, Den, NYJ, Min, and NYJ. There really isn’t a top pass defense on their schedule, which is good news for QB Ryan Tannehill and his receivers like Mike Wallace.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty decent against NYJ, Bal, NE, and Min
 
Minnesota – The Viking schedule looks middle-of-the-road against the run and the pass, so it could be relatively meaningless in terms of their offensive production, but Adrian Peterson and their running game do have some problematic matchups against Det, TB, Car, NYJ, and Det, which should all be in the top-10 against the run again in 2014. Peterson does also get some solid matchups against Stl, Atl, Buf, Was, Chi, and Chi, but his schedule looks pretty tough on the surface for the fantasy playoff weeks. Their schedule against the pass is also middle-of-the-road, but they do get at least four favorable matchups (Atl, Det, Was, and Det) and only one that looks tough (NO). Overall, the schedule does not look particularly prohibitive on paper for their passing game.
Weeks 13-16: Tough for the run against Car, NYJ, Det, Mia
 
New England – We didn’t like their schedule on paper heading into 2013, and it’s quite possible that the schedule slowed their offensive growth at times. However, the schedule looks better in 2014, if not very favorable. Their rushing attack does have four matchups that look tough heading into the season (Cin, NYJ, Det, NYJ), but they also have five matchups that look favorable (Oak, Buf, Chi, Ind, Buf). Overall, this looks like a top-10 defense for the run this year, which is good news for Stevan Ridley, who could use some help with some solid matchups in his contract year. Their schedule against the pass also looks like a top-10 schedule on paper with beatable matchups against Min, Oak, Chi, Den, Ind, and Det. Overall, there’s reason to be optimistic about New England’s matchups in 2014.
Weeks 13-16: Decent enough against GB, SD, Mia, and NYJ
 
New Orleans – The Saints schedule ranked low against the run and the pass due to a certain few matchups last year, and while they did still put up big numbers, they definitely had some problems with a few of those choice matchups. Unfortunately for RBs like Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson, the schedule has some really tough spots against the run again this year, since matchups against Cle, TB, Det, Car, SF, Cin, Bal, Pit, Car, and TB don’t look pretty on paper. Thomas led all RBs in receptions with 77, so some tough matchups on the ground aren’t a huge concern. But it’s not great news for Robinson and also Mark Ingram, as this schedule ranks according to our projected SOS as a bottom-5 schedule in terms of ease. Oddly enough, their schedule against the pass looks like it’s one of the five best in the league, with favorable matchups against Atl, Cle, Min, Dal, Det, Chi, and Atl (plus matchups against Car, SF, and Car could wind up being very good). That’s good news for QB Drew Brees and his top receivers.
Weeks 13-16: Should be particularly good for the pass against Pit, Car, Chi, and Atl
 
NY Giants – The Giants had a top-12 schedule in terms of ease against the run and the pass last year according to our rankings, but their poor OL, QB play, and stagnant offense didn’t exactly take advantage. The good news is they get another crack at a schedule that looks good heading into this coming season. They do have tough matchups against the run versus Det, Ari, Sea, and SF, but they also have matchups that look good up against Atl, Dal, Ind, Dal, Jac, Ten, and Stl. So overall, the rushing SOS looks like a top-10 one, which is worth noting for RBs Rashad Jennings and possibly David Wilson. The schedule does also look good for the pass, with favorable on-paper matchups against Det, Was, Atl, Phi, Dal, Ind, Dal, Jac, Ten, Was, and Phi. It certainly helps QB Eli Manning and their receivers that they’re in the weaker NFC East. 
Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn good for the run and the pass versus Jac, Ten, Was, and Stl
 
NY Jets – The schedule definitely looks good for the Jet running game, since we see only one tough matchup (Det) and plenty of favorable ones (Oak, Chi, Buf, Buf, and Ten). Otherwise, there are also a number of beatable matchups on the schedule, so RBs Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory should get some help from the schedule-makers. Their slate of games against the pass doesn’t look quite as good, but there are only 0-2 tough matchups on the schedule (maybe Buffalo, twice), so we have to consider this area a positive for their passing game as well. Matchups against Oak, Det, SD, Den, and Min look particularly appealing, so the schedule for their passing game and QBs Michael Vick and Geno Smith also looks like it’s one of the 10 best in the league.
Weeks 13-16: Not bad at all against Mia, Min, Ten, and NE
 
Oakland – The Raiders ranked in our top-12 in terms of ease against the run and the pass, and while they didn’t exactly go off offensively, they did pretty darn well all things considered (even rookie QB Matt McGloin was productive in 4 of his 6 starts). This year, the Raider schedule does look harder, thanks in large part to their facing off against several NFC West teams. It looks particularly challenging against the run, with matchups against NYJ, Ari, Cle, Sea, and SF. The rest of their schedule looks about average, with only 1-2 matchups that will likely be favorable (Buf and possibly Stl). The Raider schedule checks in as one of the ten toughest by the numbers, but there aren’t a ton of matchups that look scary against the pass other than Ari and Sea and maybe Hou and Buf.
Weeks 13-16: Probably below average against Stl, SF, KC, and Buf
 
Philadelphia – Playing in a shakier NFC East and against the AFC West helped the Eagles last year, and that’s what we pointed out here in 2013. That worked out well, but the schedule looks a little tougher this year. Although on average their schedule is in the top-half of the league in terms of ease against the run, they do have four tough matchups against SF, Ari, Car, and Sea. But they also have easier matchups against Jac, Ind, Ten, Dal, and Dal, so overall the schedule shouldn’t be considered to be a serious obstacle for LeSean McCoy and their running game. As for Nick Foles and their passing game, they definitely have fewer challenging matchups and in fact might have only one (Sea), so while they have only four games that look very favorable (two each against Was and Dal), Philly’s schedule against the pass look like a positive.
Weeks 13-16: One rough spot but overall very good against Dal, Sea, Dal, and Was
 
Pittsburgh – The Steelers have usually had a very favorable schedule, but last year we didn’t love the schedule against the run, and Le’Veon Bell did have some issues against some good run defenses as a rookie. Unfortunately for Bell, we see six tough matchups on the schedule this year (Car, TB, NYJ, NO, Cin, Cin), and a case can be made that Bell has up to 10 out of 16 matchups that are difficult if we include their two games against Bal and Cle, two defenses that gave up fewer than 100 yards rushing total per game against RBs. No matter how you slice it, Pittsburgh’s schedule against the run looks like one of the five toughest in the league in 2014. The good news, as it was last year, is that their passing game has what looks like a favorable schedule, one that should rank in the top half of the league. Beatable matchups against Cle, Car, Jac, Cle, Ind, NYJ, Ten, and Atl should help their passing game and could mean another surprisingly solid season for QB Ben Roethlisberger.
Weeks 13-16: Not too bad against NO, Cin, Atl, and KC
 
San Diego – Last year, we discussed the favorability of the Charger schedule against the run and the pass (we ranked them both top-5), and that was almost certainly a factor in their surprising success on offense. Unfortunately for them, the schedule definitely looks tougher in 2014. This looks like a pretty serious RBBC with Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown, and Danny Woodhead all good bets to get consistent touches, and they have at least four elite run defenses on their schedule (Ari, Sea, NYJ, and SF). There are some soft spots (Buf, Oak, Oak), but this is a schedule that appears to be in the bottom half of the league in terms of ease. It is better for the pass, though, since they have only one truly elite pass defense on the schedule (Sea), but they do have some other matchups that could be very challenging (Ari, Buf, Bal). The Charger offense was amazingly good in so many areas in 2013, and it’s fair to wonder if they’ll fall a little short of higher expectations their second time around with the new (in 2013) coaching staff and with a schedule that looks a little tougher.
Weeks 13-16: Not great but not ridiculously tough against Bal, NE, Den, and SF
 
San Francisco – The 49ers schedule didn’t stack up as being favorable compared to the rest of the league last year, and that was probably a slight factor in their so-so offensive showing overall. Frank Gore and the running game’s schedule does look good outside of the division, but of course in the division they have four matchups against two elite defenses against the run and pass (Sea and Ari). Gore and the Niner running game otherwise have favorable matchups against Dal, Chi, and Oak, along with a slate of games that looks pretty solid (other than those divisional opponents). Colin Kaepernick and the passing game do have a schedule that doesn’t stack up well against the other 31 teams in terms of our projected average grade for all their opponents, but he still does get Dal, Chi, Phi, Stl, Den, Stl, Was, Oak, and SD, which means more than half of their games are more favorable than not. The killer for their whole offense is their two matchups against Seattle come during what are traditionally fantasy playoff weeks. That does hurt, but Seattle’s defense has been weakened if only slightly due to some free agent losses in the secondary and on the DL.  
Weeks 13-16: It’s very up-and-down against Sea, Oak, Sea, and SD
 
Seattle – The schedule looked below-average against the run and pass for obvious reasons (NFC West opponents) last year, but it didn’t hurt the steady Marshawn Lynch, who once again was afforded a massive workload. Lynch does have a great schedule in the first half of the season, but then he has matchups against Car, Ari, SF, SF, and Ari, which is definitely tough. Overall, Seattle’s schedule against the run is in the bottom half of the league, per our projected SOS. Lynch isn’t an easy call based on his heavy workload dating back to 2007, along with a challenging schedule, but it’s hard to be too worried based on his logging in yet another great season in 2013 in this run-heavy offense. The schedule was possibly a factor in the so-so season QB Russell Wilson had in terms of fantasy, but it looks a little better in 2014 with solid matchups against SD, Den, Was, Dal, Stl, Car, Oak, Phi, and Stl. So don’t be surprised if Wilson scores more fantasy points this year than last, which is also good news for their key receivers like Percy Harvin. One key to their schedule will be the strength of the 49er secondary, which has lost some key players to free agency over the last two seasons. They get SF both times during the fantasy playoffs.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn tough against SF, Phi, SF, and Ari
 
St. Louis – The Rams have obviously had tough schedules playing in their division, and it’s almost certainly hurt them the last couple of seasons especially. They didn’t change divisions, so it’s going to be tough again in 2014 no matter what with six games against Ari, SF, and Sea. Other than a matchup against TB, which is tough against the run and could be very good against the pass as well, their schedule does look okay with games against Min, Dal, Phi, Den, SD, Oak, and Was to name a few more favorable matchups. So it’s really a mixed back for RB Zac Stacy, who is poised to handle a lot of touches in his second season. When it’s all averaged out, the Rams do look to have one of the 10 hardest schedules against the run. They also seem destined to face off against one of the 10 hardest schedules against the pass as well, but at least they have some nice spots like Min, Phi, Den, SF, Oak, and Was, so it’s not all terrible for QB Sam Bradford and their passing game. Still, they could really use some help schedule-wise, and playing in the NFC West basically makes that impossible. The good news is that they have only one divisional matchup for the fantasy playoff weeks (Ari) and their schedule Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen does look good overall.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn good against Oak, Was, Ari, and NYG
 
Tampa Bay – The Buccaneer schedule did look appealing on paper last year, but it’s hard to come to any conclusions about their inability to take advantage of that, given the change at QB to rookie Mike Glennon and the injury to starting RB Doug Martin. Martin will be the bell-cow, but they’ll likely work another back into the mix more than we’ve seen thus far in Martin’s career, so his margin for error might be smaller. He also has some challenging matchups against Car, Pit, NO, Cle, Cin, Det, and NO. Most of those defenses are on the fringe of being top-10 against the run, so while the schedule overall is below-average for Martin, it is possible that the schedule winds up being quite decent with other matchups against Stl, Atl, Atl, Was, and Chi, all poor run defenses in 2013. The matchups undoubtedly look better for Josh McCown and the passing game, which is noteworthy because he’s new to the team and they aren’t overflowing with great receiving talent. The Bucs should get beatable matchups against Stl, Atl, Min, Atl, Was, Chi, and Det. The Panther front seven is excellent, but their back end could be quite suspect, which if that’s the case, would give McCown and the passing game as many as 9-10 beatable matchups. Their schedule looks like a top-12 schedule against the pass in 2014.
Weeks 13-16: Not that great for the run versus Cin, Det, Car, and GB but better for the pass
 
Tennessee – The Titan schedule looks like a top-12 schedule for both the run and the pass, so that’s good news for their new coaching staff, QB Jake Locker, and their new starting RB. There are some potential trouble spots for their running game like Cin, Cle, Bal, Pit, and the NYJ, but other than maybe the Jets, these don’t really look like shutdown defenses (merely above-average ones). They also get Dal, Ind, Jac, Was, Phi, Jac, and Ind, which is a solid number of average-to-below-average defenses against the run. The schedule looks better for the pass, with zero elite pass defenses (at least on paper) on the schedule and beatable matchups like Dal, Ind, Jac, Was, Phi, Jac, and Ind.
Weeks 13-16: Not too bad against Hou, NYG, NYJ, and Jac
 
Washington – The Redskins schedule in 2013 looked well above average against the run and the pass, but with QB Robert Griffin III a shell of his former self and the team flirting with implosion, things didn’t exactly work out well for their players other than WR Pierre Garcon. There are definitely some soft spots for Alfred Morris and their rushing attack, like Dal, Jac, Ten, Dal, Ind, and Dal, but also some clearly tough matchups against Sea, Ari, TB, and SF. It’s a mixed bag, but our projected SOS at least has them with a top-15 schedule against the run. The passing game schedule is clearly more favorable, due in large part to their division, as at least two secondaries should be weak against the pass in Philly and Dallas. Although he’s coming off an ugly 2013 season, things are really setting up well for RGIII to have a bounce-back year, another season removed from his knee injury. And the schedule helps, as Griffin III gets beatable matchups against Jac, Phi, Ten, Dal, Min, Ind, Stl, Phi, and Dal. So roughly half of his matchups look favorable against the pass on paper. This is a key reason to get behind a player who was pretty dreadful last year.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn appealing against Ind, Stl, NYG, and Phi

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