Saturday, May 31, 2014

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #10 (2014 ADP Analysis)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #10
Published, May 31, 2014
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Off-Season Report #10: 2014 ADP Analysis - 5/30 

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2014 ADP Analysis


by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 5/30/14 

We’ve now been tracking and analyzing Average Draft Positions for over a decade, and in fact we were one of the first sites on the planet to track and analyze it in the early 2000s.
 
It was a handy guide back then, but in today’s ultra-competitive environment, understanding ADP is more important than ever because getting optimal value for your picks is paramount, as is preventing oneself from severely overpaying for a commodity or two.
 
This year’s ADP data seems to show a clear trend that people have a strong grasp on player values, but the ADP data will be shifting right up until the opening kickoff of the 2014 regular season, and we’ll be here to track and analyze it right up until the first week of September.
 
Note: We’re never going to include every single player at each position in this article. We focus on the more intriguing options and those who are tough to get a handle on in terms of when they will be drafted. If you view our ADP chart online or in excel, note the 12-team vs. Last column, which shows a player’s movement since our last update. Players listed in green have moved up (lower ADP) and players in red have moved down (higher ADP).
 
Also, note that we use PPR as our default setting for this analysis, and the file will show differences in the PPR ADP and non-PPR (green means higher and red means lower). We’ll always reference a player’s ADP in a 12-team league, but on the chart you can see ADP in 8, 10, 12, and 14-team leagues.
 
To view the current ADP chart, click here. 

To download the whole file in Excel, with average Auction $ Values and PPR/Non-PPR ADP, click here. 
 
Quarterbacks
 
QB Movers and Shakers
We’ll update any movement of note here starting with our next update in late June.
 
Current ADP Analysis:
 
Peyton Manning (Den, 15) – It’s no surprise that Manning’s the top QB off the board, and it’s also no surprise that he’s being drafted very close to the first round of a 12-team league (he is in the top-12 in Non-PPR). I wouldn’t take him there simply because it’s largely a case of paying for last year’s dream season, but he’s not a bad pick even that early.
 
Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees (GB/NO, 23-26) – If you want a speck of value for a stud QB, these guys offer more affordability than Manning, and we do have Rodgers as our #1 QB, so of the three he’s the best pick. If Brees slips to the 3rd round, that makes him a lot more appealing teamed with two studs at other positions. Still, as much as we hate to pass on massive QB production and their general reliability, we’re definitely inclined to pass on a QB this early in 2014, due to the excellent depth.
 
Matthew Stafford (Det, 44) – People are clearly excited about the additions of rookie TE Eric Ebron and veteran WR Golden Tate, and likely also the new offense, which will mirror the Saint offense. Stafford is up over a full round from where he was being drafted last year, and that’s totally fair.
 
Andrew Luck (Ind, 53) – We do have Luck one spot higher than Stafford in our projections, mainly because Luck’s rushing production is more consistent and reliable, but if you’re looking for the best of both worlds in terms of a fantasy stud who also comes with some value, Luck’s the guy. Luck may not be a tremendous value compared to some other high-end options, but he’s definitely a value compared to the big three, since he has a legit chance to produce comparable totals due to his running production.
 
Robert Griffin III (Was, 79) – He’s a bigger injury risk than most of his contemporaries, but RGIII could easily go down as the best value QB pick in 2014. A top-12 performer coming off an ACL in a dreadful season, Griffin has legit top-5 upside if things go merely reasonably well, and he’s relatively healthy. If things go perfectly, a top-two finish isn’t out of the question.
 
Colin Kaepernick (SF, 89) – It’s fair to say Kaepernick took a step back last year, yet even though Anquan Boldin was a nice player for him, it’s also fair to say that Kaepernick was in a tough spot without his go-to guy Michael Crabtree for most of the season. Kaepernick was still a decent performer in most leagues (top-15), and his receiving corps is dramatically better than what it was for most of 2013, yet his ADP is down 30 spots. Although his upside isn’t through the roof in a conservative offense unless he racks up the rushing yardage and TDs (possible), it’s still quite clear that he’s a very good value in 2014. A true breakout may be coming.
 
Nick Foles (Phi, 62) – Foles isn’t a slam-dunk just yet in his second season under Chip Kelly, now with DeSean Jackson out of the mix, but based on the success of this offense and his gaudy numbers, including a league-best 9.12 YPA along with strong 64% rate, it’s easy to expect continued success. However, based on this ADP and the ADP of a few other comparable options (namely RGIII) Foles isn’t an ideal value.   
 
Matt Ryan (Atl, 75) – Assuming all is well with his two top WRs, Ryan is probably a safer pick than Foles, and he’s more affordable. What Ryan is at this point, though, is a player who doesn’t have a ton of upside, which is an element Foles has over him.
 
Tom Brady (NE, 70) – Brady was significantly overvalued in 2013, as we pointed out here, and he’s at least down 30 spots from last year. That’s probably not enough for a player whose receiving corps is still in question, mainly due to the unclear status of TE Rob Gronkowski. Brady is “still Brady” as many point out, but he’s not much of a value in the 6th round of a 12-team league. The Pats seem to be focusing on defense and their running game this off-season, as evidenced by their not adding a TE.
 
Cam Newton (Car, 79) – Newton’s stock continues to tumble over the last two seasons, and he’s down 35 spots from 2013. Obviously, his receiving corps other than his top TE is completely new, but considering his OL issues and tough schedule, we don’t view him a desirable starter, so his lowered ADP doesn’t ease our overall concerns about Newton.
 
Tony Romo (Dal, 94) – He wasn’t an incredible performer in 2013, but Romo did chuck 31 TD passes in 2013, so he was a value with a lower ADP than his production dictated. There are more concerns about his health than ever heading into 2014, but given the state of their sorry defense and his high-end weaponry, a healthy Romo will certainly go down as a value yet again, especially since his ADP number has fallen even further compared to last year.
 
Jay Cutler (Chi, 109) – We see Cutler as a slight value and possible steal if he can stay on the field, since he has top-10 potential in what looks like a great offense again, and with his being the 14th QB off the board, per our ADP numbers.
 
Johnny Manziel (Cle, 127) – The track records of recent rookie QBs who can run is very good (Newton, RGIII), and Manziel creates plenty of hype on his own, which likely explains his high ADP of 121. It’s hard to call him a value that early, though, especially with Josh Gordon’s availability in serious question. We’re certainly down with taking a shot with him as an upside backup, but we’d like to get at least a little more value.
 
Russell Wilson (Sea, 113) – We appreciate Wilson’s game, and they have added a couple of interesting rookie wideouts, which could be a sign that they want to put a little more on his plate. However, this will almost certainly remain a conservative offense, and his pass attempts will likely be low for the third year in a row. So unless he’s able to return to his 2012 TD rushing form, Wilson isn’t a value this year, and he might be a little overvalued.
 
Andy Dalton (Cin, 127) – Dalton’s the 17th QB off the board, according to our ADP data, which shows fantasy owners aren’t clinging to his top-5 finish in most scoring systems in 2013. Some may understand they want to take the air out of the ball a little and run it more, and some may be downgrading Dalton based on his poor postseason play. Dalton will likely look like a value at season’s end if this number sticks, but it’s still not easy to stomach him as a fantasy starter. But as a backup, he’s a value.
 
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit, 133) – He’s coming off what was quietly one of the best seasons of his career, and while he did lose veterans Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery, there’s still plenty of intrigue with Big Ben’s receiving corps, so he’s a good value as a backup.
 
Carson Palmer (Ari, 158) – Of all the QBs with an ADP of 150 or more, Palmer looks like the best option, and thus the best value. He won’t do a thing on the ground, but with his OL shored up this looks to be a really strong passing game, and he does have weapons.
 
Best QB Values:
Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.
 
·       Robert Griffin III, 78
·       Colin Kaepernick, 88
·       Andrew Luck, 53
·       Matt Ryan, 75
·       Tony Romo, 94
 
Super Value Alert:
These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise.
 
·       Carson Palmer, 158
·       Ben Roethlisberger, 132
·       Andy Dalton, 127
·       Eli Manning, 149
·       Josh McCown, 142
·       Johnny Manziel, 126
 
Running Backs
 
RB Movers and Shakers
We’ll update any movement of note here starting with our next update in late June.
 
Current ADP Analysis:
 
Montee Ball (Den, 13) – Ball is technically outside the top-12 in both PPR and non-PPR formats. That doesn’t exactly make him a “value,” but being outside the first round sure does make him more appealing. He’ll likely settle in as a top-12 pick later this year, and while he’s not a stud talent by any stretch, he’s in RB utopia playing with Peyton Manning, and I’ll be more than fine with Ball being a #1 pick. I’m not sure those who take him will be thrilled all year, but I’d be shocked if a healthy Ball truly let them down.
 
Le’Veon Bell (Pit, 17) – Although we’re a little concerned with his tougher schedule this year, it’s a little surprising to see Bell slip out of the first round, and it’s likely due to the presence of veteran LeGarrette Blount, who did help destroy Stevan Ridley in 2013. However, Ridley is a fumbler who is rarely used in the passing game, which is unlike Bell. If he does fall to the second round in your league, to us that really helps offset that tougher schedule (as does his receiving potential).
 
Arian Foster (Hou, 14) – Fantasy owners have likely heard that Foster is 100% and ready to go for 2014, and as long as he’s out of the first round he’s a very viable pick. We’d probably prefer to grab him later in the second round, just for good measure. Not only should he still be considered an injury risk, but barring a miraculous coaching job by the new staff, this does not look like a good offense – and it could be really hurting if Andre Johnson’s displeasure leads to some sort of move on that front.
 
Doug Martin (TB, 16) – Martin’s ADP was 2 last year, so his stock has taken a hit for what wound up being an ugly, injury-plagued season. But he’s still a high pick, and that’s despite the drafting of Charles Sims and Tampa’s inclination to work in another back along with Martin. We think he’s a #2 pick, but 15 is a tad rich for a player who’s now had one good year and one bad year.
 
DeMarco Murray (Dal, 18) – Based on his 2013 production and role as a touch monger in Dallas, Murray’s ADP should be in the top-10. There are surely lingering concerns about his durability (he did miss two games last year), but he’s not a bad pick a little later in the second round. He easily has top-5 RB upside in PPR leagues if he can stay on the field because he owns every meaningful role in this backfield (lead back, 3rd-down back, goal-line back).
 
Zac Stacy (Stl, 19) – The drafting of RB Tre Mason hasn’t really effected Stacy’s ADP as far as I can tell. He’ll be the bell-cow barring a surprising development, and since Mason has issues in pass pro, Stacy should still be a 3-down back for the Rams. 19 is a little high, though, for a player who is still fairly unproven and might eventually have some legit competition for carries this year. I’d be a lot more comfortable with Stacy in the 25-30 range.
 
Gio Bernard (Cin, 21) – I have to think the drafting of Jeremy Hill hurt Bernard’s ADP. In fact, we were ready to rank him the top-12 overall before the draft. Still, he could slip into our top-15, so we’re more than fine selecting Gio at 21 overall.  It’s a little disappointing that he’ll clearly be sharing the ball with a talented “bigger back,” but Bernard is a special mover whose role in the passing game is only going up, so he should still get 15+ touches a game.
 
Alfred Morris (Was, 28) – We’re optimistic about Morris in 2013, and it’s nice to see him slip into the 3rd round, which makes him much more palatable in a PPR. In fact, for those who don’t go RB-heavy in the first two rounds, Morris should be downright appealing, even in a PPR (he’s 21 in non-PPR, so he’s a 2nd round pick).
 
C.J. Spiller (Buf, 31) – Spiller burned people in 2013, and his ADP has paid the price, as he’s down from a top-8 pick to only 31 overall. We’ve since learned that head coach Doug Marrone prefers a two-man backfield, but that’s acceptable with a guy like Spiller, who did average 4.6 YPC on basically one leg for most of the season. He’s still an upside-oriented pick that we like a lot in the 3rd round.
 
Andre Ellington (Ari, 33) – The hype train in Ellington has been started by HC Bruce Arians, and it probably gained speed due to my own tweets from the Combine after Arians talked him up to me. But an ADP of 33 in a PPR is fair for an ascending player who Arians told me was actually playing WR better than some of their WRs in 2013. Ellington will be a big part of the offense, obviously, even though there’s no way in hell he’ll get 25-30 touches a game, as Arians proclaimed in late May. We actually have him with only 16 touches a game in 2014, yet he’s still in our top 15 at RB in a PPR.
 
Bishop Sankey (Ten, 36) – Fantasy owners seem to be assuming that Sankey will be a fantasy stud this year, but I’m not so sure. He’s solid and versatile, but similar to Knowshon Moreno, he really doesn’t stand out in one area so he’ll need to be in an ideal situation. While Tennessee’s OL should be very good, playing with Jake Locker can’t be considered an “ideal situation.” Locker isn’t a guy who checks it down to his RBs much, which could hurt Sankey. And I still think a healthy Shonn Greene will be well in the mix for carries, plus they also have Dexter McCluster here. Right now Sankey is a late 3rd round pick in a 12-team PPR, and I wouldn’t take him until 12-15 picks later.
 
Shane Vereen (NE, 39) – Vereen averaged just under 9 targets a game in 2013, so while he has some availability issues and plays in RB hell in New England, his role is different than any of their backs. He was a major part of their passing game, as roughly 25% of Tom Brady’s passes went to Vereen when he was on the field, so an early pick in the 4th round is a fair price to pay. However, in a non-PPR his ADP of 50 is a bit high.
 
Ben Tate (Cle, 41) – Tate’s getting his first chance to carry the load in a backfield in Cleveland, and while they want to run the ball a lot this year under Kyle Shanahan, who has coaxed surprisingly big fantasy seasons out of guys like Alfred Morris and Steve Slaton in the recent past, the fifth pick of the 4th round seems a little high for Tate. There are legit concerns about his ability to not only stay on the field, but to stay effective if he’s worn down, and his work in the passing game is pedestrian (4.1 yards per catch in 2013). Should Shanahan choose to keep Tate on the field on third downs (a big question), he should get a few targets a game, at least, and he does have some upside if all goes well, but we’d prefer to get him a round later.
 
Ray Rice (Bal, 45) – There are some positives for Rice this year, like how he’s healthy and has trimmed down in the hope of regaining some explosiveness. Plus, new OC Gary Kubiak was a great hire for their running game and the OL should be better off. But Rice is going to have to slip a little further than the 4th round for us to even consider him. We’ll see how he looks in the preseason, but he’s also facing a possible suspension (although my guess is that it will be only one or two games). There are just too many other negatives with Rice, mainly his massive workload that seems to have taken a toll. I talked about Rice a lot with the great LaDainian Tomlinson during the ’13 season, and LT mentioned that the first thing to go with a RB is his balance, and we definitely noticed that Rice didn’t run with the same high level of balance.
 
Ryan Mathews (SD, 47) – There’s no way Mathews was going to soar into the top-25 overall after just one season in which he was healthy (and he did get banged up late), so a later pick in the 4th round is about right for a talented back who did, in fact, finally play a full season. It’s naïve to think he’s past his injury issues, but a 4th-round pick seems fair for a talented back who actually led the NFL with 168 carries in his last eight games.
 
Chris Johnson (NYJ, 52) – My gut feeling is that Johnson is going to get more touches than many expect, mainly because I’m not convinced Chris Ivory can stay healthy (he did miss a game in 2013), but I’d prefer for him to slip at least another round from an early 5th round pick. It will be something of an RBBC in the Jet backfield, so those picking Johnson this high are counting on an Ivory injury and/or Marty Mornhinweg utilizing him ideally, which is certainly possible due to his track record. But let’s not forget that the durable Johnson has had a lot of career touches, and he’s dealt with a lingering knee issue this year dating back to 2013.
 
Rashad Jennings (NYG, 54) – Jennings is coming off a nice season and projects as a 3-down back for the Giants, who do have a good schedule this year overall and could be a surprise on offense. I can’t say he’s a value at this spot, but a 5th round pick for a solid back who’ll get rushing and receiving touches isn’t bad.
 
Toby Gerhart (Jac, 56) – Gerhart will be a fascinating case study of “talent vs. opportunity” this year. Not to sound like a broken record, but I don’t think he’s particularly talented in terms of his movement, yet he can catch the ball well and produce as a volume back. I’d be open to taking him in this spot (5th round), but it will have to be a function of need more than a proactive acquisition. For example, if I used my first pick on a RB and then addressed the other positions with my next three picks, and if the pickings are slim at the position, I’m okay with Gerhart. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it’s something.
 
Joique Bell (Det, 59) – We loved Bell as a late pick last year, and he was great. However, of his 16 games he was in single-digits in PPR in half of his games, which is not good. This high ADP seems to assume that Bell will handle more of the rushing load this year than Reggie Bush, and I’m not sure about that. Bell will obviously have a larger role, but this price tag seems a little too high for Bell. I wouldn’t take him in the 5th round and view him more as an 8th round pick in PPR.
 
Trent Richardson (Ind, 61) – When I study Richardson’s body of work in his first two seasons, the most disconcerting element is his poor 3.6 YPC back in 2012. His excuse that year was that he was banged up, and his excuse in 2013 was that he changed teams, but it’s usually not a good sign when we have to make excuses for players, nor when a RB averages 3.3 YPC his first two seasons. His poor career YPC is a clear sign that we all overrated him coming out of college and/or that he’s already lost a lot of his game. However, he did catch 51 passes that rookie 2012 season, and he scored 12 TDs, so he definitely produced as a volume back (318 touches and 7th in RB points-per-game in PPR). The Colts would love for him to deliver with 300+ touches again this year, and it’s hard to worry too much about the battered options behind him in Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard, who is coming off an ACL. If Indy continues to use the pass to set up the run as they started doing last year, you have to think T-Rich will be okay. And there’s upside in what should be a very good offense and with a good schedule. Long story short, I’ll take him in the 5th or 6th round, especially if I really need a #2 RB.
 
Knowshon Moreno (Mia, 68) – Moreno is surely no stud, but we’ve underrated him over the course of his career, and his versatility really helps his chances of producing. He’ll clearly see more stacked boxes in Miami, and Dolphin RBs totaled only 49 receptions in 2013, since the OL was bad and the QB didn’t exactly show an ability to check the ball down to a back. Then again, they didn’t have anyone remotely close to Moreno in terms of pass protection, veteran savvy, and receiving ability, and the OL has been upgraded. I don’t love Moreno in the 6th round, but he’s not a bad pick at that point, ideally as a #3 if you go RB-heavy in first third of your draft.
 
Pierre Thomas (NO, 68) – His role as a runner will likely be reduced slightly, and they have a brutal schedule against the run, but Thomas still looks like a value in PPR. Thomas was “only” fifth in RB targets in 2013, but led all backs in catches because of his outstanding 92% catch rate. With Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram offering little in the passing game (especially Robinson), and with Darren Sproles’ 89 targets (more than PT) gone, Thomas has a legit chance to catch 100 balls this year if he doesn’t miss time. If Thomas gets even a third of Sproles’ targets and keeps up that high catch rate, he projects to 104 receptions in 2014. That’s probably a little unrealistic, but 85+ grabs seems very attainable. In PPR, a case can be made for Thomas in the top-50, so he’s actually a PPR value. In a non-PPR, however, his 75 ADP might be a little high.
 
Stevan Jackson (Stl, 75) – His stock has obviously taken a hit, but if you’re looking to target mostly younger, ascending players with your first 5-6 picks, then Jackson should still be off the grid for you. If he can somehow stay healthy, he will be a value this year despite his declining skills because they do want to run the ball with more power this year, and he catch pile up strong numbers in the passing game (in terms of catches, at least). There’s no way I’m targeting him, but if I wound up going heavy on the other skill positions and needed a back, I’d probably consider Jackson in the 7th round of a 12-team PPR league.
 
Stevan Ridley (NE, 81) – A top-30 pick in 2013, Ridley killed people in 2013, but things are setting up well for him to go down as a value in what is a contract year for him (and Shane Vereen). Forget about contributions in the passing game, but he’s easily their best 1st and 2nd down back, and their schedule is good this year. There are signs that the Pats will continue to emphasize a power running game, and Ridley remains a young and pretty talented runner. So with the risk element – always higher in NE – significantly reduced due to the lowered ADP, I do like Ridley this year.
 
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac, 85) – He’s in a timeshare with Darren McFadden (95 ADP), who is two years younger, but MJD is clearly more reliable than the Raider incumbent, and he’ll play for his hometown Raiders at a lighter weight this year. MJD is on the downside of his career, but there’s still upside if McFadden has issues, and he’s had issues in each of his six seasons and has averaged a paltry 3.3 YPC in each of the last three years. We’ll see how things look in the preseason, but I like MJD as a handy flex option, and the 7th round in a PPR isn’t too much to pay for a guy with the potential to be surprisingly solid.
 
Khiry Robinson (NO, 95) – Robinson is a really intriguing player, and they’re very high on him. But they’re also still pretty high on Mark Ingram, and Robinson had 0 targets in 2013. He did put up 38/430/4 receiving in college in 2012, but a 9th round pick in a 12-team PPR seems a little too rich. But we’ll be following closely to see a possible expanded role in the passing game this summer.
 
Best RB Values:
Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.
 
·       Alfred Morris, 28
·       C.J. Spiller, 31
·       Trent Richardson, 61
·       Pierre Thomas, 68
·       Stevan Ridley, 81
 
Super Value Alert:
These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise.
 
·       Devonta Freeman, 121
·       Jeremy Hill, 120
·       Mark Ingram, 150
·       Charles Sims, 166
·       Shonn Greene, 153
 
Wide Receivers
 
WR Movers and Shakers
We’ll update any movement of note here starting with our next update in late June.
 
Current ADP Analysis:
 
Demaryius Thomas (Den, 9) – Thomas has finally made it to truly elite fantasy status, and he’s now considered a top-10 pick overall in a PPR. I have no qualms with that whatsoever, and it helps that he’s in the final year of his contract.
 
Dez Bryant (Dal, 10) – With 32 out of 32 games played the last two years, fantasy owners are ready to anoint Bryant as a #1 fantasy pick, and given the treacherous history of first-round RBs, that’s more than fair, especially since the defense should be amazingly giving again this year.
 
A.J. Green (Cin, 11) – Green’s as safe as they come in fantasy, but I’d prefer to get him in the 2nd round, as opposed to late in the 1st, which is where he’s going. The Bengals are probably going to take the air out of the ball a little this year with Jeremy Hill added, and they have ascending receivers in Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones to command a few more looks. Still, Green remains money in the bank.
 
Jordy Nelson (GB, 24) – He’s not an exceptional value by any stretch, but we do love Nelson this year and have him as the 6th-best WR in 2014, and he’s going off the board as the 8th. If he slips to the 3rd round, he’s a really nice pick with the only concern being durability (he fixed that knee problem last summer and played all 16 games for the third time in four years).
 
Alshon Jeffery (Chi, 27) – I do believe fantasy owners are overrating Jeffery a tiny bit on the heels of a major breakout season in 2012. Jeffery did better when Josh McCown was in the lineup, which makes sense because QB Jay Cutler loves him some Brandon Marshall. Jeffery will be fine, but there are a few #1 targets I’d prefer over him, like Keenan Allen.
 
Keenan Allen (SD, 32) – Upon a close inspection of all of Allen’s deep stats from 2013, we came away extremely impressed with what Allen did as a rookie in the first year of this offense in San Diego, and he obviously passed the eyeball test with flying colors. We’re totally sold, so we’re more than fine with Allen, the unquestioned go-to WR here, in the 3rd round. If you can get him in the 4th, that’s beautiful.
 
Percy Harvin (Sea, 40) – It looks like Seattle may look to throw the ball a tiny bit more this year, but this is still going to be a very run-heavy offense, and there are weapons for Russell Wilson this year in the form of two rookie receivers. But as usual, Harvin’s value mainly hinges on his availability, and he’s been a bit of a train wreck in that regard. That said, I’d be hesitant to use an early 4th round pick on him. He’ll produce strong totals for a 4th round pick if he plays 14-16 games, but he’s done that just once in five seasons.
 
Larry Fitzgerald (Ari, 42) – He’s another year older and is coming off a season that was, overall, a little disappointing, and Fitzgerald’s stock is down about a round from last year, which is fair.
 
Michael Crabtree (SF, 46) – I like Crabtree a lot, but 46 seems a bit high for a player with some injury concerns and in a passing offense that is all of a sudden loaded at receiver. I do expect a major step forward from QB Colin Kaepernick, and Crabtree is his guy, but there won’t likely be a ton of production to go around, so Crabtree looks like a shaky pick in the 4th round of a 12-team league.
 
Roddy White (Atl, 52) – White will be 33 this fall, and you’re always worried about a player’s legs at such an advanced age. But he’s not exactly a fossil, either, and once he was finally healthy in 2013 he proved that he could still produce and was a top-10 PPR WR the final five games of the season. So he’s a pretty nice pick in the 5th round of a PPR draft.
 
Cordarrelle Patterson (Min, 51) – Patterson is a tough call this year because his raw talent is sickening, but he is still unproven as a route runner and downfield weapon. To put that into perspective, Josh Gordon averaged 11.6 yards at the catch under Norv Turner in 2013, and Patterson averaged a measly 4.0 yards as a rookie. Turner’s a great offensive coach and playcaller, which is good news for Patterson, but the offense is considered to be complicated (of course, Gordon was fine year one). A 5th round pick for an ascending stud talent isn’t bad, but there’s little value in taking Patterson that high, so it really depends on your expectations when drafting him. If you’re playing things aggressively, he’s certainly viable this early.
 
DeSean Jackson (Was, 50) – Jackson’s a great spot and he’s clearly a dynamic player with a ton of fantasy juice, but he could also be a third passing option in an offense that should run the ball plenty, despite the perception that Jay Gruden is pass-happy. That said, a very early pick in the 5th round, while not terrible, is a tad rich.
 
Jeremy Maclin (Phi, 60) – Fantasy owners clearly appreciate the loss of Jackson along with the fantasy-friendly offense in Philly, since they’re almost willing to forgive Maclin for his somewhat underwhelming production, and most importantly his injury issues. It is a good sign that he was comfortable re-signing for only 2014, which is a clear indication that he’s confident in his health and ability to earn a bigger and better contract in 2015. And it’s worth noting that they loved Maclin last summer in this offense before he got hurt, and that he was actually a top-20 producer with rookie Nick Foles and NOT in Chip Kelly’s offense in 2012. All things considered, I’m okay with Maclin this high.
 
Julian Edelman (NE, 56) – Unless another WR or two steps up this year and presents himself as a very reliable weapon for QB Tom Brady, Brady will likely lock in on Edelman a lot again this year. His ADP should be higher based on his ballistic showing in 2013, but Edelman is a player with durability issues, and there are myriad WR options for Brady this year, including the comparable Danny Amendola and new hire Brandon LaFell. Given the PPR gold-ness he brings to the table, a mid-5th round pick seems fair for Edelman, despite some mild concerns about his ability to repeat 2013.
 
Sammy Watkins (Buf, 66) – He looks special, but his QB could hurt his development and production this year, so a 6th round pick in a 12-team PPR is a probably a little bit much for this rookie. It would help if he was a towering wideout with great size and wingspan, but he’s not. On the other hand, he can do a lot of damage after the catch on high-percentage passes.
 
Torrey Smith (Bal, 67) – So far, Smith has yet to land on our preseason players to target list, and so far I’m glad that’s the case. He’ll likely make more big plays this year with more underneath support in the passing game and with Gary Kubiak inclined to take deep shots off play-action, but Smith still doesn’t excite me much as a PPR pick in the 6th round.
 
Emmanuel Sanders (Den, 67) – He’s already been a hit in Denver, and fantasy owners are certainly optimistic with Sanders, who is a 6th round pick per the ADP. I’d prefer to get him 1-2 rounds later, though. There’s plenty of production to go around, but he looks like only the fourth option in the passing game.
 
Michael Floyd (Ari, 73) – A top-25 producer in PPR last year, Floyd is still ascending, and I’ve talked to HC Bruce Arians about him at the last two combines, and he loves him like a son. The Cardinal passing game is also on the rise, so Floyd looks like a ridiculous value very early in the 7th round, or even in the 6th round.
 
Golden Tate (Det, 75) – He’s in a fantastic spot in Detroit, and with an ADP that places him in the 7th round, he’s quite affordable in a PPR league.
 
Eric Decker (NYJ, 79) – He’s the go-to guy and all that, so his ADP should be relatively high, but I’d probably pass on Decker in the 7th round of a 12-team PPR league. He’ll get plenty of targets and red0zone targets, but I don’t exactly have confidence in him consistently winning when matched up against opposing team’s top corner. That won’t happen on every snap, of course, but it should be the case more often than not. For example, he’ll probably kill people the two games he’s matched up against Darrelle Revis.
 
Terrance Williams (Dal, 87) – Williams is an interesting player who made several big plays for the Cowboys last year, but he also disappeared at times and hasn’t yet shown that he can be a consistent move-the-chains receiver. He’ll benefit from playing alongside Dez Bryant, for sure, but it’s a small leap of faith to take him in the 8th round over some more proven commodities like Marques Colston.
 
Marques Colston (NO, 86) – Colston may be slowing down now at 31 and he’s had lingering knee problems, but this is a pretty fair price to pay for a guy who is still the #1 option in the passing game at WR in this great offense. He was barely a top-30 producer in terms of FP/G in 2013, but once defense figured out that they should pay extra attention to TE Jimmy Graham, Colston’s production rose, and he was actually 16th in WR scoring his final eight games. He looks like a sneaky value with people jumping off his bandwagon left and right.
 
Mike Wallace (Mia, 93) – While I do have serious concerns with Ryan Tannehill’s ability to get him the ball deep, Wallace looks like a decent value in the 8th round of a 12-team PPR league. He’ll likely be frustrating on a week-to-week basis, but there’s upside to be had here in his second season in Miami and with his stock down from last year about two or three rounds.
 
Tavon Austin (Stl, 102) – Austin looks like a post-hype sleeper in 2013. We know his head was probably swimming in Brian Schottenheimer’s complex/confusing passing game, and they will run the ball plenty this year. But he does look appealing in his second season in the offense, especially since using a 9th-round pick on him in a 12-team PPR removes downside and adds to his upside.
 
Brandin Cooks (NO, 97) – We did get burned by Austin last year, and Cooks isn’t quite as dynamic, but Cooks is going to have a large role right out of the gate, and he’s obviously in a much, much better situation with an elite QB and offensive mind in Sean Payton. I’m buying Cooks in the 8th or 9th round of a 12-team PPR.
 
Cecil Shorts (Jac, 103) – I may be alone on this one, but I like Shorts as a sneaky value pick in 2014, a contract year for him. Although they’ve added two quality rookies at his position, Shorts is a savvy veteran who works very hard, and he clicks well with QB Chad Henne, who is a good bet to start most of their games. Shorts can also line up anywhere, so he’ll be on the field even if one or two of the rookies does better than expected. The downside to Shorts, other than injury, is the possibility of them thrusting #1 pick Blake Bortles into the lineup. But I’d assume if they do that they feel he’s ready to play, since their inclination is to NOT playing Bortles this year.
 
Kenny Stills (NO, 119) – Although the drafting of Cooks was a bit of a buzz kill for Stills, I’m still high on him this year. He won’t average a ridiculous 20 yards a catch in 2014, but that also means that he’ll likely see more targets and get more catches, as they use him more in the Lance Moore role with Cooks running downfield routes. Stills’ overall numbers were very, very encouraging last year, as was the trust his QB showed in him.
 
Marvin Jones (Cin, 132) – Jones was extremely competitive in his second season last year, and he was obviously productive with 10 TDs. While the team may throw the ball fewer times in 2014, Jones’ role is likely only increasing, so he’s a solid depth value in around the 11th round of a 12-team PPR.
 
Greg Jennings (Min, 147) – Cordarrelle Patterson may be a tough call, but Jennings with an ADP that is almost 100 spots lower is not – he’s looking like a sneaky value. We’ll probably see Teddy Bridgewater at some point in 2014, but it’s worth noting that, in the seven games that Matt Cassel attempted 25 passes or more, Jennings put up 41/491/4, good for 16.2 points-per-game in a PPR. That’s top-20 production, so Jennings is a player I’ll be very high on beyond the 10th round of a 12-team PPR league (his ADP has him as a 13th round pick).
 
Best WR Values:
Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.
 
·       Michael Floyd, 68
·       Marques Colston, 89
·       Mike Wallace, 93
·       Kenny Stills, 119
·       Tavon Austin, 102
 
Super Value Alert:
These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise.
 
·       Marvin Jones, 132
·       Greg Jennings, 147
·       Markus Wheaton, 148
·       Odell Beckham, 121
·       Andrew Hawkins, 220
 
Tight Ends
 
TE Movers and Shakers
We’ll update any movement of note here starting with our next update in late June.
 
Current ADP Analysis:
 
Julius Thomas (Den, 30) – When I look at Jimmy Graham’s ADP (8) compared to Thomas, I think Thomas is the most desirable TE option on the board in 2014. Graham’s obviously fantastic, but Thomas scored 12 TDs in 14 games, and now key red zone threat Eric Decker (24 TDs the last two seasons) is gone. There are some lingering durability issues with Thomas, but it’s not like Graham is always a picture of health, and Thomas legitimately has a chance to score 15 TDs this year.
 
Rob Gronkowski (NE, 36) – It’s understood that he’s a beast, but I didn’t like Gronk last year and didn’t draft him once, and I don’t regret that at all. This year, his mounting durability questions are more severe than ever, yet he’s still being drafted in the 3rd round of a 12-team PPR league (or very early in the 4th). The payoff may be bigger than the risk, but the risk is still substantial.
 
Vernon Davis (SF, 55) – We like Vernon a lot, but we haven’t forgotten that there was a time when we had to refer to him as “Vermin” Davis because he was quite the pest for fantasy. He was money in the red zone and in terms of scoring TDs last year, but there are more mouths to feed now, so you have to worry about his ability to produce consistently, especially since TDs can be fluky. Davis caught 13 TD passes in 2014, but the last time he scored 13 TDs (2009), he followed that up with almost a 50% drop in TDs (7). Davis is obviously one of the top TEs, but I’d pass on him in the 5th round of a 12-team PPR.
 
Jordan Cameron (Cle, 58) – With almost identical ADPs, I prefer Cameron over Davis, even with Cameron’s shaky QB situation. Davis could easily be a forgotten man at times this year, whereas Cameron should be consistently targeted, if not their #1 option in the passing game. In a contract year and with an impressive 2013 breakout still fresh in my mind, I’m pretty high on Cameron.
 
Jordan Reed (Was, 74) – I absolutely love Reed’s potential this year in a new TE-friendly offense and with DeSean Jackson commanding serious safety help over the top, but he is a player with major durability issues, so an early 7th round pick is a little scary for Reed. Still, if I was playing things aggressively, and to win, I’m okay with it.
 
Kyle Rudolph (Min, 97) – While Julius Thomas may the most appealing TE option based on value vs. potential, Rudolph is probably my favorite “sleeper” TE in the traditional sense of the word. I believe he’s better than his numbers would indicate, and Norv Turner can be a godsend for a TE. With improved QB play, Rudolph has a real chance to go down as a steal, and unless the hype starts building (possible), I bet he can be had a couple rounds later than his current 97 ADP (early 9th round pick in a 12-team PPR).
 
Eric Ebron (Det, 103) – While rookie TEs tend to underwhelm for fantasy due to the complexities of the position, I’m all about playing to win and a 9th-round pick isn’t too big of a stretch for a talent like Ebron who will be in an ideal situation on the Lions. I’d simply make sure I secured another upside option like Zach Ertz just in case Ebron is slow off the mark.
 
Martellus Bennett (Chi, 128) – I liked Bennett more than anyone in 2012, but didn’t feel as strongly about him in 2013 at his ADP (but we weren’t down on him). This year, in Marc Trestman’s second season, I’m back to liking Bennett as a sneakier option. Bennett told me in February that he’s going to more comfortable in 2014, and as the third option in a great passing game (not including the RBs), the targets should be there, as will the red zone love.
 
Zach Ertz (Phi, 114) – Ertz is a legit breakout candidate in his second season in Chip Kelly’s offense, but he’ll still have to compete with vet Brent Celek for targets, and they should spread the ball around even more this year. I’m more than fine with him as an upside backup, but being drafted in the 10th round is still starter territory for most, and I do think that’s a little high.
 
Charles Clay (Mia, 134) – He was something of a revelation in 2013, and even Bill Belichick and the Patriots viewed him as the top man to try to take out late in the season, but I’m not so sure about Clay, who is more of a tweener than a traditional TE. He’ll obviously be involved, but you wonder if the additions of Knowshon Moreno and Jarvis Landry will take some targets away from Clay. I could be off base on this one, but the 11th round of a 12-team PPR is a little too rich for my blood.
 
Ladarius Green (SD, 142) – I love his potential as much as anyone and have touted him since his rookie season as a great dynasty stash, but while 142 is certainly an affordable number, I’m not ready to say Green should be drafted over Antonio Gates. I get it to an extent, but Green is still considered a little raw and didn’t exactly excel at making contested catching and on move-the-chains plays. He’s probably another season from truly breaking out.
 
Best TE Values:
Note: The ADP data is still a little raw, so there should be fairly significant changes in the next 1-2 months.
 
Julius Thomas, 30
Kyle Rudolph, 97
Jordan Reed, 74
 
Super Value Alert:
These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise.
 
Martellus Bennett, 128
Jared Cook, 177
Jace Amaro, 160
Delanie Walker, 162
Heath Miller, 158
 
Place Kickers
 
Phil Dawson (SF, 174) – My guy Phantasy Phil still isn’t getting enough love. He was the #1 kicker in fantasy from Week Five on last year, going 29-for-30 on FG attempts those last 12 games, and the Niner offense looks better than ever. They may not have to settle for FGs quite as often, but Dawson still looks like a stud.
 
Matt Prater (Den, 147) – Prater is the #1 PK off the board, per our ADP. He’s either going to kick a ton of XPTs again, or he’s going to kick more FGs, so he’s definitely an appealing option, but I’d still prefer guys like Stephen Gostkowski and Steven Hauschka over him.
 
Team Defenses
 
Current ADP Analysis:
 
Seattle Seahawks (89) – Not only do I think it’s absurd to use an 8th-round pick on a defense in a 12-team league, but we don’t even have Seattle as the #1 defense this year. They’re obviously great, and they could get a big boost from Percy Harvin in the return game, but they have lost some key defenders. Even if they finish in the top-2 again (we have them at 2), it’s still asinine to use such an early pick on a defense.
 
St. Louis Rams (130) – We have the Ram defense as the #1 unit heading into the season, so with our ADP numbers showing them as the fifth D/ST off the board, the Rams look like a value. We wouldn’t take our defense as early as 122, but compared to all the rest, the Rams look very affordable. Keep in mind they were the #1 D/ST in our default scoring system the final 12 weeks of the season, and they’ve added more talent this year and have a potentially-deadly defensive front. Also keep in mind they added aggressive DC Gregg Williams, who did wonders for the Titans last year and has a long history working with HC Jeff Fisher. Add in the return upside of Tavon Austin, and you have a fantasy value on defense.
 
Cleveland Browns (165) – While their offense may not help the defense much, we still love their potential and have them as the #3 D/ST on our board. They’re being drafted as the 10th defense, per our ADP, which makes them a value. New HC Mike Pettine is an aggressive coach who uses a lot of multiplicity in his schemes, and they are loaded on the defensive front. The big key was their #1 draft pick at corner, Justin Gilbert, whom they will pair with stud Joe Haden. Should Gilbert develop quickly, it should allow Pettine to put them on the island on the outside and look to wreak havoc on opposing QBs.
 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (169) – Their pass rush has been in question the last couple years, but they did add former Bengal DE Michael Johnson, who logged 11.5 sacks in 2012 (but only 4.5 last year in 15 games). A pass rush from the front-four is a big key to Lovie Smith’s defense, and theirs may not be great, but I still really like them as a value. Back in Lovie’s first season in Chicago, the Bears had only 32 sacks, yet they were still the 6th best fantasy defense that year, thanks to 7 D/ST TDs. Tampa actually had 35 sacks in 2013 and have arguably a more talented defense right now than that ’04 Bear team. This defense is big on turnovers and big plays, and look like a steal as the 12th defense off the board. They’ll likely settle in a top-7 group, but I still like them a lot as a value.

Arizona Cardinals (135) – The numbers will have to be adjusted now that the Cards have lost stud ILB Daryl Washington for the season, and that is a big buzz kill. But this is still very talented defense, and if all goes well in the secondary, they should be okay for fantasy again. Despite not having a dominant pass rusher, they were still 7th in sacks with 47 (losing Washington will hurt there, but he did have only 3 sacks last year), 7th with 20 INTs, and tied for 5th with 5 TDs. They didn’t even get a return TD from Patrick Peterson or anyone else, yet they were still a very strong performer. The health of CB/S Tyrann Mathieu will go a long way.

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