Tuesday, July 16, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #20 (2013's Top Backups)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #20
Published, July 16, 2013
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  • Off-Season Report #21: 2013 TD Vultures (this week)
  • Off-Season Report #22: 2013 OL Previews (this week)

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2013’s Top Backups

Published, 7/16/13 

In today’s specialized NFL that includes multiple RB, WR, and TE packages, it’s particularly hard to isolate those players who are clear backups and not simply complementary players. This article will try to highlight those players and detail why they have a chance to contribute if forced into the starting lineup.
 
There will always be players on our top backups list who wind up doing diddlysquat because we are trying to isolate low-end players with some legit upside, but you have to remember that almost all of these players need some help to make an impact. But it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a clear understanding of the league’s top backup players. As we see year after year, players rise up their team’s depth charts during the season and help for fantasy.
 
As for our criteria for listing and ranking the following backups, we’re looking at a few factors: the starter’s injury history, the backup’s own ability to produce, his supporting cast, and also the possibility that the player in front of him on the depth chart has some non-injury issues.
 
Some players listed in this piece last year who made a positive fantasy impact,  thanks to injuries or other circumstances, include Randall Cobb, Josh Gordon, Cecil Shorts, Vick Ballard, Nick Foles, Kendall Hunter, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Dwyer, and Bernard Pierce.
 
Note: For brevity’s sake, we tried to ignore players who are projected to contribute in a significant rotational role or are currently given a decent shot of winning a starting job in camp. This article is strictly for players we view as clear backups and the players are listed in order of their chances of getting on the field as well as their ability to produce if they do.
 
Quarterbacks
 
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Ten) – Despite signing a contract extension during the 2011 season, Fitzpatrick wasn’t able to stick around in Buffalo and finds himself in Tennessee as the backup to Jake Locker. In 2012, Fitzpatrick went for 306/505 passing (60.6%) for 3400 yards with 24 TDs and 16 INTs. He added 49/201/1 rushing, and ranked 19th among all QBs, with 18.3 FPG. Locker’s had more downs than ups in his first two seasons, but he remains the unquestioned starter here. However, the veteran Fitzpatrick can provide the Titans with a viable starter if Locker falters again. Fitzpatrick is essentially off the grid for fantasy heading into the 2013 season, but what’s interesting about him is that, should he play for the Titans, he’d be working with easily the best receiving corps he’s had in years, so there is potential. We can’t call him a viable handcuff for Locker or even a stash-and-hope candidate, but with Locker’s reckless playing style making him vulnerable to injuries, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Fitzpatrick got some starts here. And with 3-4 very talented wideouts to throw to, he could enjoy success, so remember that during the season.
 
Kirk Cousins (Was) - While Rex Grossman was brought back for yet another year, the Redskins decided to stick with Cousins rather than trade him away, which is probably a smart move, considering the question marks surrounding the return of Robert Griffin III. Cousins is expected to remain Griffin’s primary backup and may need to start the season if Griffin isn’t ready to return from his knee issues, although Griffin continues to say he’ll be ready for training camp and all reports in mid-July were outstanding. Cousins played well in the limited time we saw him last season (33/48, 466 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs in three games). He stepped in to lead the Redskins to a comeback victory over the Ravens in Week Fourteen when Griffin initially went down with a knee injury, and then led the team to a victory as a starter the next week in Cleveland. Obviously, Cousins’ fantasy value is tied directly to Griffin’s ability to come back. All signs point to Griffin’s being ready for Week One as of the early summer, but he’s certainly no lock to play all 16 games. If Cousin’s is forced to play, there should be some optimism based on his strong showing last year in limited playing time, plus Mike and Kyle Shanahan are great at scheming and designing for their personnel, and they would certainly make adjustments for Cousins.
 
Matt Cassel (Min) – Cassel moves onto Minnesota after four mostly disappointing seasons with the Chiefs. He opened the 2012 season as the Chiefs’ starter, but was run out of town by a very angry fan base. He played in nine games last year, completing 161/277 for 1796 yards, 6 TDs, and 12 INTs. He also lost an astonishing 7 fumbles in that time. Cassel didn’t play a single snap from Week Twelve on and battled concussion issues. Still, this is a good spot for him to rebound if he can get on the field. Thus far, Christian Ponder hasn’t lived up to 1st-round expectations. While we feel he should be given more time to develop, the Vikings may be getting a bit antsy when it comes to Ponder as their long-term QB. Ponder will enter 2013 as the starter, but the team has put a little heat on him with the addition of Cassel. If Ponder struggles, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Cassel at some point. Cassel is a mediocre QB with below-average skills, but he was able to toss 27 TDs versus 7 INTs back in 2010, so he’s been able to produce in the past when things were ideal around him. That could be the case in Minnesota with Adrian Peterson, a solid OL, an emerging star at TE in Kyle Rudolph, and solid talent at WR like Greg Jennings. Also, it should be noted that Ponder has had durability issues dating back to college, and those issues have followed him throughout his young Viking career (see the NFL playoffs last year).
 
Chase Daniel (KC) – Daniel will back up Alex Smith in Kansas City this season after spending three years in New Orleans learning from Drew Brees. The Chiefs gave up a pair of draft picks to acquire Smith, including a 2nd-rounder in this year’s draft, and he was immediately named the team’s starter. Considering the other two Chief QBs are rookie Tyler Bray and Ricky Stanzi, Daniel should enter the season as Smith’s primary backup without much competition. Daniel has been active for all but three games in the last three seasons as a backup to Brees, but hasn’t been called upon for anything more than mop-up duty. He threw just one pass all of last season. Daniel has excelled the last few preseasons, but he’s obviously unproven as a starter when bullets are flying for real. This does have the makings of an effective offense, and one with talent to work with. Daniel isn’t draftable, but it’s worth noting that Smith has had issues staying on the field, as we saw in 2012 (concussion). If Smith’s out of the mix, Daniel would be someone to consider if you need to dig deep at QB.
 
Shaun Hill (Det) – Hill is a part of this list every season and will probably remain on it until he’s no longer on a team with Calvin Johnson. Hill is getting up there at 33 years old, and Matthew Stafford has played all 16 games two years in a row, plus Hill is coming off minor off-season foot surgery. But back in 2010, when Hill played significant snaps in nine games for an injured Stafford, he attempted 40+ passes in six of those. The ultimate “volume QB,” Hill showed he can produce if he’s throwing the ball a ton, and it certainly helps that he has Calvin on his side. If Stafford goes down again, Hill will certainly be worth picking up for depth. The downside is that the league has changed a little since even 2010, and even 40+ attempts from immobile Hill would make him merely viable, not starter material.
 
Kyle Orton (Dal) – Not surprisingly, Orton saw action in just one game last season serving as the backup to Tony Romo. He’s expected to enter the 2013 in the same spot, especially since the other two QBs on the roster are Nick Stephens and Dalton Williams (no, we don’t know who they are either). Orton is clearly no threat to Romo and that was made abundantly clear when Romo signed a monster extension this off-season. Romo and the team have both acknowledged a need for him to improve, but after getting the new deal, it doesn’t look like he’ll come off the field in favor of Orton, barring an injury. Orton has certainly proved to be a competent starter in the past, and with a solid receiving corps led by Dez Bryant, he might be able to put up decent numbers if called into duty. Remember, he was a sneaky fantasy starter in Denver just a few seasons ago – and the Cowboys OL might still leave Romo vulnerable to some big hits, especially on the right side.
Running Backs
 
Ben Tate (Hou) – Tate is the clear handcuff to Arian Foster and #2 on a team on which most proven back behind him is Deji Karim. Coach Gary Kubiak has said he expects a lot out of Tate this season, and the Texans would really like to ease Foster’s workload, given that he leads the NFL in touches since 2010 and has seen his per carry and catch averages slip noticeably. Tate has reportedly been fantastic in the spring, which is a start. Last season, Tate battled hamstring and foot injuries and played in only 11 games, carrying for 65/279/2 (4.3 YPC) and averaging 4.1 FPG, down big from the 8.5 he averaged in 2011. Ideally, the Texans probably would have liked to rotate Foster and Tate a lot more, but Tate’s injuries made that impossible. With many of Foster’s yards per touch numbers progressively getting worse the last two years, it’s very clear the Texans need to pull back from their usage of their workhorse and work someone else into the mix. Foster’s 4.0 yards-per-carry average was weak for him, and his yards-per-catch average of only 5.4 was downright pathetic. So we see an expansive role for Tate this year if he can stay healthy. That’s a big issue for him, but if there was ever a year for him to stay on the field, it would be this year, since he’s a free agent after the 2013 campaign.
 
Bernard Pierce (Bal) – We like Pierce because he’s a very clear handcuff. While the Ravens may want to limit Ray Rice’s touches going forward, Pierce is ultimately an upright runner who may function best in a rotational role. He’ll have some games with double-digit carries and a score here and there, but he’s absolutely going to be playing second fiddle to Rice. Pierce really came on strong in the second half last year (including the playoffs), and it was encouraging how his play was elevated once he found a level of comfort in the offense. Although he was very useful to the Ravens in 2012, Pierce played only 20% of his club’s offensive snaps. And his fantasy value didn’t really hold up on its own, as his 108/532/1 rushing line (4.9 YPC) was enough to average him only 4.0 FPG, which ranked him 70th among RBs. He would like to play at a little lighter weight this year, and he’s been working on his footwork and vision. Pierce envisions a devastating 1-2 punch in the Raven backfield this year, and he might be right, although it’s clear Rice is the unquestioned leader of this backfield. But until we see Rice break down, we’re not going to expect the world from Pierce. But if we’re talking backups with big time upside, Pierce is as good as it gets.
 
Ryan Williams (Ari) – New HC Bruce Arians may have said the Cardinals will have an open competition for touches, but the belief is that Rashard Mendenhall, who played for Arians in Pittsburgh, has the clear edge and is expected to win the starting job. That would leave Williams as a backup in an already-crowded backfield. Obviously, Williams has had some tough luck in his first two seasons with injuries ending his last two years prematurely. He’s gifted, but he’s missed 27 games in two seasons, and he has to totally prove himself to a new coaching staff that has no loyalty to him. However, we know for a fact that Arians does like him a lot, as we asked him about Williams at the combine this past February. In fact, Arians said that he “loved” Williams coming out of college. It’s obvious that any optimism with Williams at this point comes from his potential, and unfortunately, other than a few flash plays the last two years, we haven’t even seen much potential from him. But at least at his best he does project as a featured back, and his skill set is potentially as good as all but 10-12 other backs in the league. Presumably healthy from the patellar tendon injury that cost him his entire rookie season, Williams still couldn’t get going behind a patchwork line, posting 58/164/0 (2.8 YPC) rushing and 7/44/0 receiving in five games of action before a shoulder injury ended his sophomore season. Williams also fumbled twice, not a good sign for his chances to gain the trust of his new coaching staff. Williams clearly wasn’t at his best, worried about reinjuring his knee, which he fully admitted this off-season. Hopefully, with the injuries behind him, Williams can get on track, but he’ll need to prove he can be a reliable option since he’s pretty much starting from scratch and he’s got to beat out two rookies (Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington) for touches. But for this article, Williams does stand out.
 
Michael Bush (Chi) – Bush looked sluggish in 2012, and while he was a better short-yardage back than Matt Forte, that only translated to 5 TDs on 114 carries. He had just 411 yards (3.6 YPC) and caught only 9/83 on 11 targets before landing on the IR with a rib injury after playing 13 games (and 23.7% of the Bears’ offensive snaps). It was only revealed in July that Bush played most of last season with a fractured shoulder, so we’re willing to give him a pass for what was a disappointing performance in 2012. Bush has had great success in short-yardage situations throughout his career, while Matt Forte has generally been very poor. At the very least, Bush should be a viable handcuff and rotational guy, who might have some upside as a flex in some weeks if the Bears get enough offense plays. It’s probably a foregone conclusion that Bush will get the bulk of the goal-line work this year, but this is a new coaching staff, so that is something we’ll have to monitor this summer. Assuming Bush handles the goal-line work, there’s some potential here because we do think the Bears will be moving the ball a lot better and more consistently than they did last year. And as we saw in 2011, Bush has pretty strong potential if he’s pressed into a lead role due to an injury to the starter, so he has some value there, especially since Bush has underrated receiving ability and the Bears are expected to throw to their backs a lot.
 
Joique Bell (Det) – In 2012, Bell was a real revelation for the Lions and fantasy, with 899 yards from scrimmage on 31.9% of their offensive snaps. Bell also showed more big-play ability than Mikel Leshoure, especially in the passing game as the primary passing-down back. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 rushing attempts for 414 yards and 3 TDs. But Bell also contributed 52 receptions for 485 yards in the Lion passing game. He finished 39th among RBs this past year, with 6.7 FPG. We don’t want to go nuts about a strong off-season, but Bell has certainly gotten a lot of love from the coaching staff in Detroit for the work he’s put in this year. That being said, he was so impressive in the spring that he could also seriously push Leshoure for snaps behind Reggie Bush. Bush isn’t exactly an iron man, and neither is Leshoure, so in deep leagues, Bell might still be worth a roster spot, especially if he continues his strong spring into the preseason and challenges Leshoure. He was clearly their best back in 2012, and while Leshoure excelled in short yardage, Bell was significantly more productive in the passing game. If Bush is out of the mix, Bell should be right back in the saddle as a player who gets a lot of snaps and touches. His combination of size, power, and receiving ability would give him a chance to be impactful for fantasy. It might be fair to say Bell is the backup for both Leshoure and Bush and has a chance to overtake Leshoure in the depth chart at some point.
 
Marcel Reece (Oak) – New Raider OC Greg Olson has already commented this off-season that he views Reece as a potential third-down option, a role Reece has clearly proven he can handle in short spurts. Olson has praised Reece’s blocking and receiving, two skills that make him ideally suited for the role. He’ll have to beat out intriguing rookie Latavius Murray and plodding veteran Rashad Jennings for snaps, but he has experience and on his side. And even if Murray becomes Darren McFadden’s top backup, Reece is talented enough that his versatility should be an asset on a team that lacks weapons across the board. Reece was very handy for those in need of a viable fill-in option after McFadden went down, and he’s a good and versatile player who merits consideration. Reece was actually the most effective back in the Raider offense in 2012, ranking 12th among RBs, with 13.3 FPG. With McFadden hurt between Weeks Ten and Twelve, he had over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those games, despite entering that stretch with a grand total of one carry on the season up until that point. Still, he’s more suited to play fullback or contribute as an H-back than to play running back straight up. On the year, Reece totaled 59/271/0 rushing and a whopping 52/496/1 receiving, so he should have a role, and he played 60.8% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps. Things are a little different in 2013, with two new backup candidates added. We don’t think much of Jennings at this point, since he was awful in 2012 on the Jags. But if McFadden goes down, we can easily envision the intriguing Murray taking over as the lead back. He is a rookie who has a lot to prove, though, and Reece’s value would surely go up if McFadden is out of the mix. So while Reece probably doesn’t have the upside he exhibited last year, he’s too solid and versatile a player not to have some value.
 
Joseph Randle (Dal) – Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has explicitly said this off-season that he anticipates Randle being the #2 in Dallas behind DeMarco Murray. That’s a nice endorsement, and it’s also a relevant fantasy position, considering Murray’s injury history. Randle isn’t a special talent by any stretch, but he has the balanced skill set teams look for in their #2. He should easily beat out Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner, as long as the thumb issue he’s getting over isn’t a nagging issue and it doesn’t look like that will be the case. Although Randle could get some snaps alongside Murray this year to keep Murray fresh, his real value stems from being Murray’s handcuff. Unless Randle is banged up or surprisingly bad, it’s just about a lock that he would get every chance to be the lead back if Murray is out.
 
Toby Gerhart (Min) – Gerhart is secure as the #2 in Minnesota behind Peterson, but that likely means his fantasy value is tied almost exclusively to Peterson’s health, unless the Vikings willingly take the ball out of Peterson’s hands. And why would they even think of doing that? In 16 games last season, Gerhart carried for 50/169/1 (3.4 YPC) and added 20/155/0 as a receiver while playing only 23.2% of the team’s offensive snaps. He ranked 86th among RBs with 2.4 FPG. Only once all year did Gerhart have double-digit touches (Week Three), and his role was typically limited to third-down work, when his pass protection gives him the only advantage he could possibly dream of having over Peterson. As we’ve seen in the past, Gerhart is a trusty handcuff because he can put up numbers when he gets volume, but he never saw that in 2012 in the wake of Peterson’s amazing year. He is literally worthless if AP stays healthy, but he goes from that to a very solid starter – he can do more in the passing game than AP – if Peterson is out.
 
Robert Turbin (Sea) – Turbin is like a lower-case Marshawn Lynch, which makes him a really nice #2 in the Seahawk backfield, and he had a great rookie season in his role. But the interesting thing here is rookie RB Christine Michael, who has had some issues but is extremely talented. There are still some questions about Michael’s pass protection, as you would expect from a rookie, so we’d expect Turbin to head into the season as the handcuff for Lynch. In 15 games and 22.2% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps, Turbin posted 80/354 rushing and 19/181 receiving, with no TDs. Turbin has similar skills to Lynch, but he has more speed and also excels in third-down situations, which is why we’ll continue to believe he’s the next man up if Lynch were to go down. But we’ll certainly have to keep our eyes on the ultra-talented Michael.
 
Montario Hardesty (Cle) – Hardesty is coming off his best season as a pro, but that’s not exactly saying much, considering he played only 15.3% of the Browns’ offensive snaps. He finished 2012 with 65 carries for 271 yards and a TD behind rookie Trent Richardson. Hardesty looks to be the best bet to serve as a “handcuff” for Richardson, but he still has to prove himself more worthy of a roster spot than the likes of Chris Ogbonnaya, Dion Lewis, and Brandon Jackson. None of those names will scare anyone, but this new coaching staff is certainly going to give a long look to Hardesty before slotting him in behind Richardson without reservations, especially given Richardson’s spotty injury history in his brief NFL career. Although there’s some depth in the Brown backfield this year, and thus competition for Hardesty, we still have to give him the edge to open the season right behind Richardson. It’s a shame that injuries have seemingly robbed him of the explosiveness he showed in college, but Hardesty hasn’t helped matters much by being indecisive. We’ll have to keep a close eye on Richardson’s return from a leg injury, as it could open the door to Hardesty playing more, especially early in the year. He’s also in a contract year in 2013.
 
Knile Davis (KC) – Davis has a lot of issues, but he at least has high-end raw talent. The Chiefs clearly see something potentially special in him, since they grabbed him in the 3rd round (95th overall) in April. That was a pretty hefty price to back for a back with durability and fumbling problems, so we’re sure they would love for Davis to emerge in camp as the clear #2 RB. Davis looks like he’ll have to beat out the solid-but-ultimately-pedestrian Shaun Draughn for the Chiefs’ top backup RB job, but there isn’t much other competition here. We know Jamaal Charles is the man in Kansas City, but if he were to go down again (torn ACL in 2011), the team would be in desperate need of someone to pick up the slack, especially with Charles expected to play a major role this season. To his credit, Davis has said his fumbling issues are under control, and if that’s the case, he has enough talent to win the backup job, which would obviously put him in place to step in if Charles went down. It’s possible coach Andy Reid sees some Bryce Brown in Davis, at least in terms of a natural physical talent who didn’t perform in college for one reason or another.

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Watch List:
 
Mike Gillislee (Mia) – It certainly looks like the Dolphins want Lamar Miller to be their starter and will give him every opportunity to win the job. But Miller and Daniel Thomas are far from established players, so it’s not a lock that either can hold down any role. The Dolphins love Miller, and he’s more talented than Gillislee. But with only 51 carries on Miller’s career resume, Gillislee is at least on the radar as a viable alternative if Miller struggles or gets banged up. We’d feel better about Gillislee if Thomas wasn’t on the roster, but we’ll have to see how his situation plays out in camp. Gillislee isn’t a stud, but we think he has a chance to eventually merit significant touches in an NFL backfield. Miller is more talented and is our favorite (and the team’s favorite) to take the job, but don’t rule out Gillislee having a role here, given that Miller isn’t exactly experienced and has had big-time injury issues in the past. If Miller is out, then Gillislee could easily have a very large role.
 
Latavius Murray (Oak) - It’s nearly impossible to handicap a rookie who will open up training camp as a clear backup, but there is no doubt in our minds that Murray is one of the most intriguing sleeper backs in fantasy this year. That’s due in part to Darren McFadden’s lengthy injury history, but also to Murray’s talent, which fits in well with this new offense. If McFadden misses time, we can easily envision the Raiders rolling with Murray and Marcel Reece, not the sluggish Rashad Jennings. If Murray can impress in camp, there’s absolutely a chance he beats out Jennings as McFadden’s top handcuff. Murray is getting over a foot injury that bothered him in OTAs, but should be fine for training camp. While we expect Reece to be in the mix no matter what, Murray is probably best suited to be McFadden’s handcuff.
 
Felix Jones (Phi) – With the Eagles expected to use a combination of both LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown this season, Jones looks like he’ll be in the mix for the #3 job with Chris Polk. Jones was a first-round bust with the Cowboys, and they were willing to part with him after five inconsistent years marred by injuries and questions about his work ethic. As the de facto starter in the six games DeMarco Murray missed, Jones totaled only 73/230/2 rushing (3.2 YPC, only 38.3 YPG), although his 18/181/2 receiving helped him salvage some fantasy value. Overall, Jones posted 668 yards from scrimmage and 5 TDs, ranking 42nd among RBs with 6.1 FPG, but he made some critical errors and the team couldn’t really trust him to stay on the field. Overall, Jones played only 34.5% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps despite being the starter for nearly half the year. If Jones makes the team, we’d expect him to step up if McCoy or Brown were to go down or if Brown’s struggles with fumbles popped up again.
 
Christine Michael (Sea) – Robert Turbin is probably the safer bet to be the #2 RB in Seattle behind Marshawn Lynch, but we are still keeping an eye on Michael. He did work with the first-team offense in OTAs, and as we know with Russell Wilson last season, HC Pete Carroll isn’t afraid to give rookies a chance. Michael needs to improve in pass protection, just as Turbin needed to do as a rookie last season, but if that happens, he could have a chance to unseat Turbin as Lynch’s handcuff because he’s just so much more talented.
 
Denard Robinson (Jac) – While Robinson might be called an “offensive weapon” on the team’s website, it looks like he’ll be a RB for fantasy purposes, although the team is expected to find lots of ways to use him. He’s not a handcuff for Maurice Jones-Drew, but on a team with a lack of big-time talent, Robinson’s unique skillset has to be respected. Justin Forsett might be the #2 to Jones-Drew, but Robinson might be able to carve out a role as a 15-snap player, which is what GM David Caldwell is hoping for.
 
Roy Helu (Was) – Outside of Alfred Morris, it’s tough to lock any Redskin back into a role heading into 2013, but that’s because predicting what the Shanahans are thinking is usually impossible. Helu is more gifted than Evan Royster and has more experience than rookies Chris Thompson and Jawan Jamison, but Shanahan will play those players who actually have earned it. That said, Helu could have an extensive role as a #2 back here, or he could be a preseason cut if Thompson establishes himself. We just don’t know at this point. Helu is getting over toe and Achilles injuries from last season, but was apparently at 100 percent by the end of OTAs, so he should have a chance to earn a prominent role behind Morris and possibly be the #2 RB in Washington.
 
Brandon Bolden/LeGarrette Blount (NE) – There’s plenty of hype for Shane Vereen heading into the 2013 season, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see others contribute behind Stevan Ridley. We aren’t excited about Bolden or Blount, but either could see time as a short-yardage/goal-line option, although Blount didn’t get strong review this off-season and Bolden was limited by an ankle injury. This is a situation to monitor since a Ridley injury would open the door for Bolden and/or Blount to get more involved.
 
Wide Receivers
 
Note: With so many backup wideouts seeing the field in a situational fashion, we have to dig a little deeper to find viable backups who aren’t on the field a ton in 3-WR sets.
 
Rueben Randle (NYG) – Randle flashed last year, and we liked his talent coming out of LSU, so we’ll certainly be watching him closely. Last year, he posted only 19/298/3 in 16 games (3.0 FPG), but he ended the season on a strong note, with 4/58/2 against the Eagles in Week Seventeen, while seeing extra playing time. Randle played on just 24.0% of the Giants’ offensive snaps last season and averaged 9.31 YPT. A big receiver who has decent speed, Randle could go a long way to helping the Giants in the event of more Hakeem Nicks injuries. Randle will likely be the #3 WR this season, behind Victor Cruz and Nicks. Of course, Nicks has had a long history of injuries, so Randle could be thrust into the starting lineup at any point. OC Kevin Gilbride said Randle will play a lot this year, even with Cruz and Nicks in the mix. While Randle is expected to play no matter what, his value would definitely rise if Nicks were to go down yet again, as Eli Manning has always been one to make his receivers better. Randle might be the most intriguing backup receiver on any roster heading into 2013.
 
Julian Edelman (NE) – Edelman isn’t even guaranteed a roster spot heading into the preseason after a setback to his broken right foot this off-season. But he makes sense as a replacement for Danny Amendola, who has a notable injury history. The Patriots dragged their feet on re-signing Edelman this off-season, but they did get a deal done, and with a lack of reliable options in the receiving corps with Aaron Hernandez gone and Rob Gronkowski working his way back from multiple surgeries, Edelman’s value has to be up by default. The Patriots clearly had intentions of getting Edelman more involved at the beginning of last season, but Wes Welker took back his dominant spot in the lineup after an early injury to Hernandez. Edelman had his season come to an end with a broken foot in Week Thirteen, after posting 21 catches for 235 yards and 3 TDs on 32 targets (65.6% catch rate). A healthy Edelman would almost certainly start in Amendola’s spot if the former Ram missed time, so Edelman can potentially offset a lot of the risk that will come with drafting Amendola this year. It’s rare we advocate drafting a WR handcuff, but in a PPR, Edelman looks like a terrific insurance policy for Amendola. There’s also a slight chance Edelman gets on the field in another role, since the situation at WR is fairly dire in 2013 (not to mention their serious concerns at TE), so as a guy who can also play outside, he has a smidge of upside. But again, this is all a moot point if Edelman isn’t healthy in August and of course for the season.
 
Domenik Hixon (Car) – Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell are the clear top WRs in the Carolina offense, but Hixon looks like the favorite to be the #3 WR this season. Armanti Edwards impressed in off-season workouts, but he’s still unproven entering his fourth season, so Hixon should have a chance to see the majority of snaps as the #3 WR. Most likely, the only player capable of seriously pushing Hixon is veteran David Gettis, but he’s done nothing since suffering a serious knee injury in 2011. Speaking of injuries, Hixon returned from an ACL tear he suffered in 2011 to post 39/567/2 and 5.3 FPG in 13 games of action last season, but he was a guy who more often “flashed” than made a consistent impact. He saw 59 targets for 62.8% catch rate, and he averaged 14.5 YPC and 9.6 YPT. While Hixon has some major injury baggage, we have to say we’re intrigued by his addition in Carolina. LaFell hasn’t been overly impressive, and a healthy Hixon is definitely a better downfield threat and playmaker. If the Panthers do push the ball down the field more this year, Hixon could be very helpful to this offense.
 
Travis Benjamin (Cle) – With WR Josh Gordon serving a two-game suspension, Benjamin is expected to step into the starting lineup to open the 2013 season. Benjamin has flashed as a deep threat and was used in a rotational role last season, but with a lack of established talent on the outside, Benjamin could emerge if he performs well with increased opportunities. Last season, Benjamin didn’t have much of an impact on the Browns, as he finished the year with just 18 catches for 298 yards and 2 TDs on 35 targets (51.4% catch rate, 8.51 YPT). But he came on strong at the end of the year, with 8 catches for 158 yards and a TD in the final three weeks. QB Brandon Weeden said Benjamin “stuck out” during OTAs and complimented his route running, specifically in relation to his speed. We don’t want to go overboard with Benjamin, but he is a good fit for the team’s move to more of a downfield passing attack and considering Gordon’s off-field issues, Benjamin might be in a position to contribute in a bigger role this season.
 
Keshawn Martin (Hou) – We asked head coach Gary Kubiak about Martin at the Combine, and he seemed to like him. He said he can play inside or outside, so he has versatility working in his favor. He also said that after a great preseason in 2012, the regular season “got a little long” for him, so he could be better-equipped in year two. He’s an interesting player who can help make up for some of the missing targets FB/H-back James Casey is leaving here, although we wouldn’t necessarily expect him to play a significant role unless Andre Johnson or rookie DeAndre Hopkins went down. In 2012, Martin played in all 16 games, but he recorded only 10 catches on 26 targets (38.5% catch rate, 3.27 YPT) for 85 yards and a TD. He played in just 23.4% of the Texans’ offensive snaps last season. Martin is in the mix of a receiving corps with young, unproven talent, so if he’s able to build on what’s been a good off-season, according to Kubiak, there may be a chance for him to do more in 2013.
 
Keenan Allen (SD) – Allen is clearly behind the 8-ball a bit, trying to beat out the veteran Malcom Floyd, the talented Vincent Brown, and Danario Alexander. Still, all three of the wideouts in front of him have injury histories, so Allen could see significant time at some point this season, although he’s been working his way back from a PCL issue that limited him last season and has shown improvement throughout the off-season. To Allen’s credit, he’s made it clear he wants to start as a rookie and while we don’t necessarily expect that to happen, he has enough talent to shine through at some point. Getting to 100% for training camp would put him in a much better spot to show what he can do heading into the season. The Chargers might not be a big-time passing team like they’ve been in the past, so we don’t want to get too excited about Allen, but we’re definitely intrigued by his talent, especially since his talent suggests he could be a #1 NFL WR down the road if all goes well.

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Terrence Williams (Dal) – We liked Williams a lot at the Combine and were impressed with him after meeting him this past February in Indianapolis. He’s very talented, yet he might be best cast as a #2 WR. He’ll probably head into the season as the #4 behind Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Dwayne Harris, although if he impresses, he might have a chance to beat out Harris for the #3 job. The team was cautious with Austin during the off-season workouts, and Williams saw some time with the first-team offense. We have to acknowledge Williams as a possible contributor because he has a chance to get on the field in 3-WR sets and might be asked to do more if Austin battles injuries yet again.
 
Tight Ends
 
Ben Watson (NO) – With stud Jimmy Graham being such a high-priced fantasy commodity, we actually love the addition of Watson because, if healthy, he can serve as a very good handcuff for those worried about Graham’s ability to stay on the field. Watson certainly has some durability issues himself, including some pretty serious concussion problems in 2012, and he’s nearing the end of his career. But the Saints were wise to bring him in because he’s probably still good enough to start in this offense. Watson had something of a resurgence in the second half of last year in Cleveland. Watson went for more than 40 yards just once in his first eight games, but he cleared 40 yards five times in the second half of the year. He finished 28th among TEs, with 4.3 FPG, on 49 catches (59.8% catch rate) for 501 yards and 3 TDs while playing almost 83% of the snaps. We have little doubt a healthy Watson would produce if he’s needed to handle a featured role on this team, especially since he’d be catching passes from Drew Brees.
 
Jake Ballard (NE) – Ballard was the forgotten man at TE for the Patriots, but he might not be for much longer given Rob Gronkowski’s injury issues and Aaron Hernandez’s release. However, he’s recovering from Microfracture surgery and a torn ACL, and there’s no guarantee he’ll ever be at full strength again (look at WR Steven Smith, who retired this off-season). In OTAs, Ballard still looked like he was getting his legs under him, which is not a surprise. He could have some value if he’s able to pull it all together in training camp in the preseason, but this is a “we’ll believe it when we see it,” scenario. Ballard should be ready for the season and could be needed if Gronkowski isn’t ready, but expecting him to be an equal replacement for Hernandez is ridiculous. Ballard’s value would come from playing with Tom Brady on a team desperate for help in its receiving corps.
 
Vance McDonald (SF) - We don’t think TE Vernon Davis is in any danger of losing his job, but we can’t ignore the fact that the 49ers added McDonald in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. After all, there was a need there after Delanie Walker departed for Tennessee. The McDonald pick should signal a lot of 2-TE sets, just like with Davis and Walker, and the rookie could get on the field a lot because of a lack of a viable #3 WR. McDonald has already impressed and was called a “standout” in OTAs by the Sacramento Bee. Davis has worked a lot at WR during the off-season, so while he may have the TE distinction, Davis and McDonald may both see the field at the same time quite often. The worst-case scenario is McDonald serving as the backup with a chance to play a bigger role catching passes from Colin Kaepernick if Davis were to go down. The 49ers are looking for help in their receiving corps with both Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham recovering from their respective injuries, so McDonald may be contributing as a recruit.
 
Adrien Robinson (NYG) – The addition of Brandon Myers to replace Martellus Bennett takes caring of the starting TE job for the Giants, but it was a necessary signing since they have a lack of depth at the position. Robinson enters his second season after not recording a catch in either of the games he appeared in as a rookie. To his credit, Robinson has been praised by TE coach Mike Pope, although it’s tough to get excited about a guy projected to be a blocker. His only value would come if Myers got hurt and Robinson was elevated to the starting lineup, where he’d have the advantage of playing with QB Eli Manning, who has made fantasy success stories out of Bennett, Jake Ballard, and Kevin Boss.
 
Taylor Thompson (Ten) – While Delanie Walker was brought in to be the main TE, we’d have to believe the team would be pleased if the raw but extremely talented Thompson shocked them and emerged as the top TE weapon in this offense. But while Thompson did get more playing time than we expected last year, but he’s not exactly a prospect who seems poised to break out. He’ll probably need at least another full year to be ready to show us the best he has to offer, but he’s definitely someone to watching during the season. As a rookie, Thompson appeared in every game, but had just 6/46 while playing about 26% of the snaps. He wasn’t asked to do much more than block and played on a limited snap count behind Jared Cook and Craig Stevens. Walker was signed to replace Cook and looks like the favorite to win the starting job, but Thompson could also be in the mix – specifically in the red zone – and may see the field along with Walker in two-TE sets. But based on his freakish talent along Thompson needs to be in this article.
 
Garrett Graham (Hou) – Over the last two seasons the Texans have lost both Joel Dreessen and H-back James Casey, so things have cleared out for Graham. He’ll certainly get on the field alongside Owen Daniels, but unless the veteran goes down with an injury, Graham isn’t someone to consider. If pressed into a prominent role during the season, though, he’d certainly have a chance to be impactful for fantasy. The Texans do run the ball a lot in the red zone, but the unknown Graham was able to surprise with 3 TDs last year while playing a bit role in their offense. As a backup to Daniels, Graham posted 3.2 FPG, with 28/263/3 on 39 targets in 14 games (9.3 YPC, 71.8%), while playing just over 54% of the snaps last season. Daniels has remained the starter, despite injuries slowing him down. And while he may enter 2013 on top of the depth chart, we wonder if Graham will begin to get more playing time. Graham is coming off a career season and has certainly earned a bigger role in the offense.

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Gary Barnidge (Cle) – Barnidge has never been a reliable fantasy contributor and has just 18 catches to his name since 2008. However, he played for new Brown HC Rob Chudzinski in Carolina and is an athletic player. The Browns are hoping TE Jordan Cameron makes the leap this season, but that’s no sure thing, so Barnidge might be the next best option on the team’s depth chart. Cameron has dealt with injuries in the past, and Barnidge’s familiarity with Chudzinski will only help him.
 
Daniel Fells/Michael Hoomanawanui (NE) – The release of Aaron Hernandez coupled with the uncertainty of Rob Gronkowski’s status coming back from multiple off-season surgeries has put a spotlight on the TE depth chart in New England. While Jake Ballard is assumed to be the first to step up, he hasn’t exactly garnered rave reviews this off-season in his attempt from a torn ACL and microfracture surgery that kept him out for all of the 2012 season. That puts Fells and Hoomanawanui in the mix, although Hoomanawanui looks to have a better chance to contribute since he played the same “F” position as Hernandez. Of course, we don’t want to go overboard since Hoomanawanui has just 25 catches over three seasons, but the issues in New England have to be acknowledged and the TE position will be one to watch in the preseason.
 
Tom Crabtree (TB) – The Buccaneers didn’t bring back Dallas Clark after a decent 2012 season, but they did add Crabtree to a group of TEs that may be the worst in the league for fantasy. Luke Stocker is the starter by default heading into the preseason, but has never shown much as a receiver. Crabtree might have just 18 catches in three seasons, but didn’t get a lot of chances to show much in Green Bay as part of a loaded receiving corps. There’s little fantasy value in any of the Buccaneer TEs, although if a more “dynamic” pass-catcher were to emerge, we’d expect it to be Crabtree.  

FantasyGuru.com’s Matt Camp and John Hansen contributed to this article

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