Wednesday, July 10, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #18 (PPR Gold)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #18
Published, July 10, 2013
Copyright © 1995-2013
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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  • Off-Season Report #19: 2013 Contract Year Players
  • Off-Season Report #20: 2013 OL Previews 

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PPR Gold

Published, 7/10/13 

By popular demand, for the 2013 season, our site-default scoring system has switched to a points-per-reception (PPR) format. It’s been a very popular request over the last few seasons, and in 2013, the demand finally became so overwhelming (over two-thirds of our subscriber poll respondents voted for PPR) that we made the change.
 
The point is this: The typical fantasy player feels that “more points = more fun.” As such, fantasy owners are more cognizant of how a player’s role and effectiveness in the passing game can greatly enhance his value. The purpose of this article is to simply recognize those players whose values are noticeably higher in the PPR format than in standard-scoring leagues.
 
Note: For instructions on how to create a non-PPR scoring system (our old default scoring) in less than five seconds, head here.
 
The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
 
Running Backs
 
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
 
  • Arian Foster (Hou)
Obvious PPR Studs
 
Darren Sproles (NO) – This article was made for Sproles, who has 161 catches over the last two seasons against 135 rush attempts. While some fantasy players remain leery of Sproles’ sustainability with so few touches, he has 2224 yards from scrimmage over his 29 games with New Orleans, an average of 76.7 YPG. By comparison, Alfred Morris, the NFL’s second-leading rusher, had 105.2 YPG last season, about 3.0 FPG ahead of Sproles on yards alone. But in a PPR, Sproles more than closes that gap with 5.5 RPG over the last two seasons (Morris had only 11 receptions all year). Additionally, with the Saints, Sproles has 14 receiving TDs the last two seasons. No other RB has more than 6. It’s clear he’s a unique weapon in the NFL, and a guy who is more than worthy of a 2nd-round pick in PPR formats. In fact, he’s often a value because some owners don’t find his production sustainable. In a PPR, Sproles makes every touch count. Oh, and he’s about to get the most creative play-caller in the NFL back on his sideline this year with the return of HC Sean Payton.
 
Reggie Bush (Det) – It might seem odd to include Bush in this article, given his production with Miami the last couple of seasons. In 31 games with the Dolphins, Bush averaged 2.5 receptions and 3.3 targets per game. In 60 games with the Saints, Bush averaged 4.9 receptions and 6.7 targets per game, nearly double the receiving production. But we also must point out that Bush had exactly the same rushing total (2083 yards) in two seasons with Miami that he had in five seasons with the Saints. In Detroit, we’re expecting more of a balance, as head coach Jim Schwartz has said this off-season that he feels Bush is better utilized in space (“on his terms,” as Schwartz put it). The Lions still don’t have great WR depth behind Calvin Johnson, so Bush will be a nice safety valve for QB Matthew Stafford. The only real question we have with Bush this year is durability, and it is a legit concern. Otherwise, if he plays 14-16 games, 75+ catches seem like a lock.
 
Matt Forte (Chi) – Forte has flat-out said he expects to catch more passes this season, telling ESPN Chicago that new coach Marc Trestman has been impressed with his route running on film. We already know Forte is a skilled pass-catcher from his past, and we already know that Trestman loves to get the ball to his RBs in space. Not only has this been a big part of Trestman’s game-planning in the CFL, but he did it in the NFL as well. In 2002, when Trestman was the Raiders’ offensive coordinator, RB Charlie Garner caught a whopping 91 balls for 941 yards and 4 TDs in addition to the 962 yards and 7 TDs he had on the ground. Last season, Forte had 60 targets and 44 receptions in 15 games. His 4 targets and 2.9 catches per game marked the lowest averages of his career, and down from 6.2 targets and 4.3 receptions per game in 2011. But for 2013, Forte has been learning all the receivers’ routes and should truly be the Bears’ #2 passing target in their offense. If healthy, he should easily set a career high in receptions this year, so we love him in PPR and like him a lot in all formats.
 
Jamaal Charles (KC) – PPR owners shouldn’t be worried about Andy Reid’s arrival in Kansas City. In fact, they should be thrilled. Charles said in June that Reid’s offense “might be the best thing that ever happened” to him, according to the Kansas City Star. Charles anticipates having a huge role in the Chief passing game this season, and it’s easy to see why: Charles has averaged 3.3 targets per game in his career, compared to former Reid RB LeSean McCoy’s 4.8. QB Alex Smith is a smart QB who will take advantage of check-downs when he needs to, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Charles have some games in which he offsets low-ish carry totals with 6 or 7 receptions. Plus, the pistol elements the Chiefs are expected to employ will create even more space for him. Reid this year will resume the play-calling duties in his offense, something he hasn’t done in about five years. Right around the last time he was calling plays in Philly, RB Brian Westbrook was the #2 RB in fantasy football and put up 278/1333/7 rushing and 90/771/5 in the passing game. If you’re wondering about Charles’ upside if everything goes well in KC this year, look no further than Westbrook’s monster 2007 season.

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Upside PPR Options
 
Trent Richardson (Cle) – Believe it or not, only six RBs caught more passes than Richardson last season. And only two of those backs (Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy) had more than 100 carries on the season. So it was Rice, McCoy, and a handful of specialists who caught more passes than TRich. Richardson’s health is a legitimate concern, more so than his low YPC (3.6, if you don’t believe his injuries affected that). But he was a legitimate option in the passing game for QB Brandon Weeden, and new OC Norv Turner’s offense is very friendly to check-down RBs. If Richardson proves he’s healthy in camp from his spring leg injury, and he’s expected to be full-go, he becomes really attractive in the second half of the 1st round.
 
Steven Jackson (Alt) – Despite Michael Turner being a total zero in the passing game, the Falcons threw to their backs more than most teams in the NFL, and they were in the top-5 in the NFL in RB targets in 2012.  Yes, Jacquizz Rodgers has a lot to do with that, but the point here is that Jackson is far from a zero on passing patterns. In fact, Jackson expects to be utilized a lot in passing situations, not a shock considering the Falcons threw the ball over 60% of the time in 2012. We rarely endorse a 30-year-old back as having legit upside, but Jackson does. He is joining a team that gave Turner countless chances to score from inside the five over the last few seasons, and he’s a much more skilled receiver. We’re not calling Jackson a bona fide PPR stud because Rodgers is still a great receiver himself, but the Falcons won’t have to shuffle their backs as much as they did last year if they don’t want to.
 
DeMarco Murray (Dal) – In Murray’s nice 2011 rookie year, we lamented that he was underutilized in the passing game, despite great numbers in that department in college. The good news is that he improved his targets per game from 2.7 as a rookie to 4.1 in 2012. He improved his receptions per game from 2.0 as a rookie to 3.4 in 2012. The bad news is he played only 10 games in 2012, down from 13 in 2011, and he’s a guy who looks like he’ll always have “FRAGILE” stamped onto his backside. Nonetheless, he caught at least 4 balls in six of his 10 games last year, and the Cowboys throw it a ton. If he manages to beat the odds and stick on the field, he’ll produce in a PPR. He’s not a guy we’re targeting, per se, but the argument for drafting him at a good price is evident in a PPR league.
Receiving Specialists
 
Jacquizz Rodgers (Atl) – It’s entirely possible that Rodgers’ snaps go down in 2013, as the Falcons transition to Steven Jackson at RB. Remember, Rodgers played only 11 fewer offensive snaps than Michael Turner a season ago, given Turner’s total ineptitude in passing downs. That meant Rodgers caught 53 passes in 2012 (4th-most among RBs), even though he didn’t totally take hold of the chance to become the Falcons’ full-time back like the coaching staff may have wanted. Rodgers himself has admitted this off-season that he’s aware the balanced Jackson could cut into his offensive snaps, but ultimately Jackson is still in the twilight of his career. Rodgers’ carry totals may fall (94 last season), but he’s a nice receiver at his position – his 89.8% catch rate last season was absurd, and no other RB with 50 targets even came close to that number, so he’s still viable in a PPR.
 
Danny Woodhead (SD) – With the addition of Woodhead and the re-signing of Ronnie Brown, do you think the new Charger regime trusts Ryan Mathews on third downs? Between Woodhead and Brown, the Chargers have a combined 89 catches from 2012, and two players who have made names for themselves on third downs. But it’s Woodhead who figures to have the bigger rotational role, given he was specifically brought in by this regime. And in a PPR league, he’s been effective, finishing 33rd at the position last season and as high as 27th in 2010. In off-season camps, Charger reporters for the Union-Tribune San Diego have noted how much more comfortable Woodhead looks than Mathews in obvious passing situations. He could have a lot of value as a dump-off option for QB Philip Rivers, especially behind this poor offensive line. Woodhead might have to beat out Brown for snaps, which is an issue (Brown caught 49 passes himself last season), but we’ll give the younger and faster Woodhead the edge. Keep in mind the Chargers were 2nd in the league in RB targets behind only the Saints, so there should be plenty of targets for Woodhead.
 
Pierre Thomas (NO) – Thomas is a human flex player. In 2012, he played just over a third of the Saints’ snaps (34.7%), rushing 105 times for 473 yards and a TD, with 39/354/1 on 53 targets. He finished 36th among RBs in a PPR with 8.9 FPG, meaning he was a #3 RB for fantasy purposes. This year, the Saints are expected to try to run the ball more with Sean Payton back in the fold, but as always, Thomas bridges the gap nicely between Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. And it’s the receiving ability that makes him viable for fantasy. He has 89 catches on 112 targets the last two seasons, and his 2.9 receptions per game over that span mean he’s always a solid option for a few cheap points when you’re in a bye week or injury bind. He’s a depth guy, but a good one in a PPR.
 
Giovani Bernard (Cin) – Bernard is really interesting. If we’re basing analysis solely off his ADP at publication (7/10, but we’ll update this article periodically in August), he could be a monster steal or a major reach in the 6th round of a 12-team draft. There’s no doubt he’s more talented than BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and in a PPR league Bernard’s perceived versatility would have a whole lot of appeal. We asked him at the combine what his biggest asset was, and he said it was his versatility. In fact, the Bengals have been lining him up in the slot and out wide in spring practices, something that we’ll be monitoring in training camp and the preseason. But we still have to be convinced that OC Jay Gruden, never among our favorite play-callers, can properly use him. In other words, at this point, we view Bernard as someone who could be an effective role player, completely underutilized, or the Bengals’ eventual starting RB this season (RB coach Hue Jackson is adamant that Bernard can be a three-down player in the near future). We’ll have a better idea of which deeper into the summer.

Watch List
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
 
Marcel Reece (Oak) – Here are the running backs who caught more passes than Reece last season: Darren Sproles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Jacquizz Rodgers. Here are the backs who had more receiving yards than Reece last season: Sproles. Yeah, that’s it. As the Raiders’ most versatile and underappreciated player, Reece played FB, RB, H-back, and even some WR en route to 52/496/1 receiving. Reece was actually the most effective back in the Raider offense in 2012, ranking 12th among RBs with 13.3 FPG with Darren McFadden hurt between Weeks Ten and Twelve, with over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those games, despite entering that stretch with a grand total of one carry on the season up until that point. While the Raiders added an intriguing backup RB in Latavius Murray in this year’s draft, Reece can handle a lot of the third-down work, and he could be a sneaky-good flex in the event of an injury. Let’s see how new OC Greg Olson uses him in the preseason, but it appears the Raiders continue to be fond of him.
 
Le’Veon Bell (Pit) – Bell certainly isn’t Darren Sproles, but one of the things that stood out to us on tape was that he’s a pretty damn smooth pass-catcher for someone who has been kind of pigeonholed as a two-down bruiser. He caught 67 passes over the last two seasons at Michigan State, and if he can prove his worth in pass-pro he could be a true three-down back as a rookie. That’s certainly projecting him a bit, and it might be a little unfair, but the Steelers drafted him to start. We’re merely pointing out that he may not be the slouch in the passing game many seem to think he will be. With both Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer – both bigger backs with little upside in the passing game – failing to haul in even 20 passes with extensive playing time last year, an active role in the passing offense is there for the taking for Bell.

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Wide Receivers
 
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
 
  • Calvin Johnson (Det)
  • A.J. Green (Cin)
  • Dez Bryant (Dal)
Obvious PPR Studs
 
Brandon Marshall (Chi) – For the purposes of this article, there really doesn’t need to be much analysis beyond this: The last three seasons Marshall has played with Jay Cutler, he’s topped 100 catches, including a career-high 118 last season. Although the Bears have brought in pass-happy coach Marc Trestman to overhaul the offense, they still don’t have significant depth behind Marshall at the WR position. So presuming Marshall’s recovery from an off-season hip scope progresses as planned, there’s no reason to think he can’t approach the 100-catch mark again. His role last year was actually unhealthy because it was too large, but no matter what he’s as reliable a PPR beast as there is.
 
Randall Cobb (GB) – While we’re cautious with Percy Harvin and his team change, we’re totally on board with Cobb as the next great volume producer at the WR position. In fact, QB Aaron Rodgers has gone on record this off-season as saying he believes Cobb could catch 100 balls. That’s not a surprise, considering he posted 80/954/8, despite playing only 57% of the Packers’ snaps last season. With Greg Jennings gone, Cobb’s role should only increase. You can count on coach Mike McCarthy to get him the ball all over the field in a variety of ways (remember, rushing production is always a possibility here), and you can always count on a high-end talent playing for a coach who totally gets it and knows how to take advantage of his weapons. Cobb is the type of player who could haul in 10-plus catches any given week. That’s free points in a PPR.
 
Danny Amendola (NE) – Amendola has been a younger Wes Welker clone for a few years now, and the Patriots may need him to do even more than Welker, if that’s to be believed. With Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez, and Danny Woodhead gone, that’s a whopping 440 targets gone from Tom Brady’s arsenal last year, which is mind-numbing. And that doesn’t even factor in the question mark that is Rob Gronkowski. While he’s on a new team that might place an added focus on running the football, Amendola seems to be a total lock for 100 catches if he plays 15 or 16 games. Of course, his durability is the biggest question mark. In that case, keep an eye on Julian Edelman, who could be a great handcuff and protection for Amendola.
 
Reggie Wayne (Ind) – The good news for Wayne is that he’s coming off a 106-catch season in Andrew Luck’s first year with the Colts, the third 100-catch campaign for him in four seasons (he had 75 catches in 2011 with the likes of Curtis Painter at QB). The bad news is he’s working in a new offense under Pep Hamilton, and Wayne finished with a mediocre 22/250/2 over the final five games of the season. Still, we’ll take a bet that Wayne, one of the sharpest players ever at the WR position, will adjust to the new offense and will thrive in its quick-trigger nature. He’ll continue to be Luck’s primary receiver, and he’ll easily surpass 80 catches again this year.

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Upside PPR Options
 
Antonio Brown (Pit) – Brown is coming off an up-and-down season, but he still has a lot of promise as an all-around receiver. With the departure of WR Mike Wallace to Miami and TE Heath Miller continuing to recover from knee surgery, Brown enters the year as the clear top target for QB Ben Roethlisberger. WR Emmanuel Sanders is the only other receiver who’s played significant time with Big Ben, so Brown figures to see heavy targets in 2013. The Steelers might try to push the ball downfield a little more often this season, but Brown will still be the featured receiver, especially on intermediate routes, which is a staple in Todd Haley’s offense. He’s never been a prolific TD producer, despite scoring in his final four games of last season, so he’s always been a better option for PPR formats. Brown saw 105 targets last season, despite missing three games, and he could see even more passes this season as the featured receiver. It wouldn’t be a shock at all if he makes a push toward triple-digit receptions, which makes him one of our favorite mid-round PPR picks.
 
Dwayne Bowe (KC) – Bowe has always been one of the better WR talents in the NFL, but his quarterback play has really failed him at times, especially last season’s debacle with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. We’d love to see what he could do with an elite QB, but the veteran Alex Smith should at least provide a significant upgrade. Bowe also got a significant coaching upgrade in Andy Reid, who has a long history of throwing it a ton. Heck, the additions of Smith and Reid prompted Bowe to sign a long-term extension with the Chiefs, when it seemed like he was all but gone toward the end of last season under the Scott Pioli regime. Bowe is still in his prime at 28 years old, so he should get back to the 80-catch range that he’s achieved twice before in his career. Bowe is feeling so good coming into the season that he predicted that he would lead the league in receptions (in case you’re wondering, that would be good in a PPR league). It’s all looking up for Bowe heading into 2013, so he’s got a legit chance to rebound as a top-10 fantasy WR and a major foundation of KC’s passing game.

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Watch List
 
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
 
Stevie Johnson (Buf) – Johnson has been an incredibly consistent fantasy option the last three years, especially in PPR formats. He’s logged 82/1073/10 in 2010, 76/1004/7 in 2011, and 79/1046/6 in 2012, and it doesn’t get more rock-solid than that without actually being elite. But while he did lose the weak-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, Fitzpatrick’s gunslinging game often matched up well with Stevie, who would create small windows of separation into which Fitz was willing to pull the trigger. The Bills replaced Fitz with 1st-round QB E.J. Manuel, who they obviously think highly of and has a chance to start from Week One. In addition to the new QB, new coach Doug Marrone will be running a new offense, and the Bills spent some high picks on WRs. Remember, Johnson did finish with the 9th-most targets at WR with 146 in 2012, so a lot of his production comes from volume. We’ll have to see this preseason if it appears he’ll still see the same volume in a new offense with a new QB. Johnson has been incredibly efficient for PPR owners the last three years, and his ADP has been affordable, so he could be a value if he can maintain his significant role with Manuel or Kevin Kolb.
 
DeAndre Hopkins (Hou) – There isn’t a whole lot of production to go around in the Texans’ passing game – they ran the ball nearly 50% of the time last season, which is well above the league average. But the good news for Hopkins is that there aren’t a whole lot of mouths to feed either. You’re fooling yourself if you think Kevin Walter has been anything more than an average #3 WR for about five years now, but he’s still been running with the Texans’ starters over that time. Now Walter is gone, DeVier Posey is coming off an Achilles injury, and Keshawn Martin is little more than a slot guy. The Texans clearly want to take some pressure off of Andre Johnson, who is still productive but has an injury history and could be slowing down. The big and physical Hopkins should be that guy, barring disaster, as he was already running with the first team in the spring.

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Tight Ends
 
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
 
  • Jimmy Graham (NO)
Obvious PPR Studs
 
Tony Gonzalez (Atl) – It’s hard to find a more reliable PPR TE than Gonzalez, especially given the scarcity of proven tight ends currently in the league. Gonzalez has now hauled in at least 70 passes in a remarkable 10 straight seasons, and he’s coming off his best season with the Falcons (93/930/8) in four years. Gonzo hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, even as he’s entering his 15th season at the age of 37, so we’re not expecting him to fall of a cliff in 2013. Remember, he’s motivated by finishing oh-so-close to his first Super Bowl ever. He still figures to be a huge part of this pass-heavy offense, especially in the underneath areas. Gonzalez clearly isn’t a sexy pick at this point in his career, but it will be hard to find a more reliable pick at TE, and he’s rarely disappointed.
 
Jason Witten (Dal) – Witten is bound to regress this season, which is only a given coming off his NFL record-breaking mark of 110 catches. Witten was also the only TE to break a 1,000 receiving yards last season, but he did struggle to find the end zone, with just 3 TDs. Despite Witten’s measly TD production (a disturbing trend with Tony Romo at QB), Witten still finished as top-5 PPR TE. About the only thing that could significantly hurt Witten’s production this season is the continued emergence of WR Dez Bryant or the emergence of a legit #3 WR here. Witten’s numbers tailed off a bit at the end of the season when Bryant took off, but he did at least score 2 of his 3 TDs in the final three games. Witten has caught 94+ passes three of his last four seasons, so he’s clearly still a high-TE option in PPR formats, even if he can’t match his record-breaking 2012.
 
Upside PPR Options
 
Dennis Pitta (Bal) – All signs are pointing toward Pitta having a huge season. Pitta wasn’t entirely consistent last season, but he still put up impressive numbers (61/669/7) to finish 9th among TEs in FPG (11.3). Pitta and QB Joe Flacco are best friends on and off the field, and their chemistry continued to develop throughout the spring. Of course, Flacco has a big arm and loves to throw it deep, but he also needs someone reliable underneath, which is where Pitta fits in. Flacco lost his favorite intermediate target when the Ravens traded Anquan Boldin to the 49ers. Pitta could see a significant number of Boldin’s former targets, and he also thrived when Jim Caldwell took over as OC at the end of last season, totaling 25/346/5 in just five games. Caldwell clearly helped the team’s passing game, and Flacco played at a different level in the playoffs, so Pitta has some room for growth this year, which is why we love him in all formats. When Flacco lost his boy Derrick Mason several years ago, he turned to Boldin. Now he’ll turn to his BFF in the reliable and clutch Pitta.
 
Brandon Myers (NYG) – East Rutherford has been a great spot for the last couple of disappointing or no-name players to line up with QB Eli Manning and learn from TE coach Mike Pope. TE Martellus Bennett finally broke out a bit last season, after spending four uneventful seasons in Dallas. Before Bennett, Jake Ballard and Kevin Boss became fantasy relevant with the Giants. Myers comes into 2013 with more of a resume than any of those players. He broke out last season with the Raiders with a huge PPR season (79/806/4, most in garbage time), and he could have another volume season with the Giants. Myers isn’t as talented as Bennett, but he’s more of a reliable target underneath for Manning. Myers told the Newark Star-Ledger in July, “I’m with a great organization, a proven team with a proven quarterback, in an offense that if you’re a tight end and you can get open, you’ll get a lot of opportunities to catch the ball.” Myers has the chance to be a good PPR starter like last season, but he’ll at least be a solid fantasy backup if he can’t replicate the GTP he posted with Carson Palmer.

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Watch List
 
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
 
Martellus Bennett (Chi) – Producing little despite being among the league’s more talented TEs in his first four NFL seasons with the Cowboys, we nonetheless liked Bennett as a value pick entering his 2012 season with the Giants. And Bennett backed it up and finally emerged last season, recording career-best numbers of 55/626/5. He now enters another situation where he can succeed in the innovative offense of HC Marc Trestman. QB Jay Cutler has lacked a dynamic TE since Greg Olsen left in 2010, and Bennett is a huge upgrade over “Stonehands” Kellen Davis. The Bears lacked a consistent #2 receiving threat after Brandon Marshall last season, and Bennett could very well be that guy this season. He’s a strong blocker, but the Bears are also planning on using Bennett to create mismatches. While there are better TE options available, Bennett can still be had relatively late in drafts, so he could have some upside in all formats as the third option in this passing game behind Marshall and RB Matt Forte.
 
Jordan Cameron (Cle) – Cameron still has to prove it on the field, but the talented young TE will have the opportunity to play significant snaps in a TE-friendly offense this season, so his prospects are looking up. New HC Rob Chudzinski loves to use his TEs, and he told us he liked Cameron during an interview at the Combine but admitted he’s still an unknown. New OC Norv Turner also helped Antonio Gates become a household name in San Diego. Turner used vertical WRs to create space for Gates underneath, and the Browns also have some viable deep threats, including WRs Josh Gordon and Travis Benjamin. While Cameron still has a long way to go, he should get every chance to show his talent, so he’s got some potential as a #2 TE.
 
Coby Fleener (Ind) – HC Chuck Pagano certainly caught our attention in May when he said that he expects Fleener to double his 26-catch total from 2012. Former OC Bruce Arians was notorious for underusing his TEs, and Fleener will get to play under his former Stanford OC Pep Hamilton this season, so Fleener’s chances are looking up just strictly from a scheme perspective. Arians used Fleener primarily as an in-line TE last season, but he should be used as a more versatile weapon in 2013. Of course, fellow second-year TE Dwayne Allen is still in the mix, which could curb some of his production. Still, Fleener is a taller and more athletic option than Allen, so he’s got more big-play and red-zone potential. He also has a history with QB Andrew Luck dating back to their Stanford days with Hamilton, so Fleener has a real chance – as Pagano said – to double his 2012 catch total and become a relevant #2 TE in PPR formats. We like Fleener to break out this year, but he’s only on the “watch list” because we still need to get a better feel for his and Allen’s role.  

Tyler Eifert (Cin) – Eifert plays like a wide receiver and his talent makes him an intriguing offensive weapon heading into his rookie year. However, it’s still yet to be seen just how OC Jay Gruden plans on using Eifert along with fellow 1st-round TE Jermaine Gresham. We’re still not totally convinced that Gruden will know how to use Eifert effectively, or if he’ll see the field enough, but Eifert is still an intriguing prospect and one we’re keeping our eyes on. The Bengals used Eifert all over the field and ran a lot of 2-TE sets during off-season workouts, so it’s clear the wheels are in place to put him into action. We’ve just got to see it in game situations. Eifert definitely has the talent to be an upside backup TE, so now we just want to see how the Bengals plan on using him in the preseason.

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