8/27/15
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Good Vibes/Bad Vibes
Published, 8/26/15
And here we go with another look at my preseason vibes for all 32 teams!
I started this article about ten years ago as kind of informal look at the “vibes” I was getting for all 32 teams after following them closely and watching all of their exhibition games. Over the years, though, it’s really grown in popularity because it’s been a strong indicator of things to come, and because it’s a great piece for readers to quickly access the “CliffsNotes” version of all of our preseason content. For instance, if you haven’t been following a thing in the NFL this summer, you can get caught up in just 10-15 minutes, at least in terms of the offensive side of things.
Every year at this time I feel very good about the work we’ve put in and the analysis we’ve put out there, and this year is certainly no exception. I think most readers would agree that we’ve taken very logical and realistic positions on everything we care about in the fantasy world, and for the most part things have held up very well as we head to Week One (we’ve also adjusted to some things we’ve seen in the preseason).
The frustrating thing is that mass chaos is about to ensue, and we’re going to end up being wrong more than we’re right (most likely). However, for what it’s worth, I went back midseason and looked at this article last year – possibly the craziest year of my 20-year career – and I was really surprised at how solid most of the takes were (all things considered).
I don’t have a crystal ball, but my preseason vibes are the next best things, so let’s get to it…
Note: For the rest of the preseason, I’ll check back and add updates to this article on usually a daily basis, so this is one feature where you’ll always be able to get an up-to-date look at my takes on the 2015 season.
Arizona Cardinals – The vibes could be better here, but it’s not all bad. An OL that I thought would be as good as it’s been in years/decades has not looked very good in the preseason, and big FA pickup Mike Iupati (knee) is expected to miss 5-7 weeks, plus starting RT Bobby Massie is facing a 3-game suspension. Also, DJ Humphries (1st rounder) has struggled. The good news is Carson Palmer looked great in the first game and okay in the second, and Andre Ellington, who is still working his way into “football shape,” has looked as dynamic as usual. Rookie David Johnson also had a great pro debut this past weekend – so perhaps they can cut Chris Johnson – and John Brown looks capable of being more than just a deep threat. I would like to see more positive things here, but I still believe that they’ll have a nice level of success if they stay relatively healthy.
Atlanta Falcons – There’s not a ton going on here, but the vibes are okay. I did a 2-hour radio show with Roddy White last week and White told me that Devonta Freeman is clearly their No.1 back to open the season, which makes sense because he has experience and since Tevin Coleman has missed so much time. I threw out my theory that Freeman will handle at worst 50% of the touches in the backfield all year (he’s more advanced as a receiver and protector that Coleman), and Roddy completely agreed. Coleman will factor into this backfield for sure, but I’d be careful not to overvalue him, and Freeman remains a value pick and a viable RB3. White’s elbow injury isn’t expected to be keep him down for long, and it’s at least not related to his legs. That’s the area where Roddy is most concerned, and he’s looking at dealing with a knee that likely needs regular draining this year. Roddy can’t say enough good things about Julio Jones, who is his best friend on the team. I’m going to be doing a weekly radio show with Roddy all year, so I should be dialed in (even if I have to get nuggets from him off the record and air). Also, Leonard Hankerson is actually looking pretty darn good and his inside/outside versatility should give him a great chance to be what Harry Douglas has been for them, and we know at times that has been a valuable fantasy asset. But I still like the rookie Justin Hardy as a guy to watch. On the downside for both guys, we’re not going to see as many 3-WR sets this year in the new offense. Jacob Tamme is the guy to get at TE, but it’ll likely be a TEBC situation so I’m not very interested in Tamme.
Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco is a robot on the field and isn’t really effected by anything, which is good because he’s going to be breaking in a new #1 WR and receiving TE, a proposition that is even tougher because Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams are both rookies. Perriman has missed a lot of time this summer, which is obviously a concern for his fantasy value early in the season. But the good news is I was told that they’re happy with him and think he’s the real deal, so don’t be surprised if he emerges as a poor man’s version of Odell Beckham this year in terms of being off the grid early in the season but a major factor later in the season. He’s considerably better than Torrey Smith and had some Julio Jones qualities to him. I was talking last week with Flacco’s former TE Todd Heap and he completely agrees with my believe that this factor will translate to a ton of check-downs to RB Justin Forsett, who had a 4-yard catch from Flacco in the second preseason game. It was only a 4-yard catch, but his timing with Flacco on the play was outstanding. Forsett also had some really nice runs on the right side this past weekend. We know Steve Smith will get the ball early and often, but it’s worth noting that Smith admitted to me in May that teams simply doubled him in the second half of the season and basically took him out, so he’ll need some support. It’s hard for me to say I like Flacco this year, but he’ll likely find a way to put up respectable numbers under Marc Trestman, and there are some other capable guys here, notably Kamar Aiken, who has good chemistry with Flacco. Also, the injury situation with Lorenzo Taliaferrohelps rookie Buck Allen, who is a better fit for Trestman’s offense given his receiving ability. But Taliaferro was looking good and was firming up his #2 spot on the depth chart before the injury.
Buffalo Bills – I have to confess that I’m very intrigued by Tyrod Taylor potentially quarterbacking the Bills this year. He’s very much an unknown commodity, but he’s shown himself to be more than a running QB who’ll dash off if his first or second progression isn’t open – plus he will certainly take off and run quite often, which obviously helps for fantasy. He has to win the job still, though, and when the bullets are flying for real it’ll be a major challenge for him. I think he has a real chance to be the guy because Rex Ryan knows all too well how hard it is to defend a running QB like Taylor, and I think he’s enamored with that (plus he didn’t learn his lesson with Michael Vick). We’ll see what happens here, but I can’t say I like anyone in their passing game. And since I haven’t liked LeSean McCoy this year, I may actually like Taylor the best on this team when considering ADPs, upside, etc. There are some intriguing weapons for whomever is leading this team at QB, including Charles Clay, Percy Harvin, and Robert Woods (and of course the #1 Sammy Watkins). Harvin’s a major pain in the ass, and he’s been dead to me for years with no regrets. I can’t believe he’s been hurt this summer! Shocking!
Carolina Panthers – Obviously, the vibes aren’t good. Kelvin Benjamin was a huge key to their offense as a rookie, and I don’t see Devin Funchessas having a chance to come anywhere close to the impact that Benjamin had as a rookie, especially as a downfield threat. This receiving corps is a Greg Olsen injury away from being horrendous. Olsen has been durable and he’s played hurt, at least, and the overall vibe on him is good. He’ll get plenty of looks and remains a very strong TE1. Of all their remaining receivers, I like Corey Brown the best, but he’s still a little rough around the edges and I can’t yet say he’s a complete receiver. With very good QB depth this year, I see no reason to draft Cam Newton, who has struggled this summer, unless you get pinched while holding off on drafting your QB and guys like Tannehill, Stafford, and Eli go off the board. This is not good news for Jonathan Stewart, since it should be easier for defenses to stack the box unless someone like Brown or Ted Ginn steps up and consistently poses a threat down the field. That’s possible, but I’m not counting on the inaccurate Newton getting those smaller receivers the ball.
Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler’s been fine in the preseason, but I don’t think that means all that much (he was phenomenal last summer and look how that turned out?). They’re still in serious danger of being without their #1 pick in WR Kevin White, and Alshon Jeffery has missed a lot of valuable time in their new offense this summer with a calf injury, although that could be a non-issue in a few weeks. They do still have Martellus Bennett and Eddie Royal, at least, and the vibes are fine with those two. As I’ve stated all year, I don’t like the Bear OL blocking for the run, and I’m expecting to pass onMatt Forte this year with Marc Trestman out of town. Forte has been one of my favorites over the last ten years, and I could regret being down on him, but I’d rather bail a year too early than a year too late, and his still-high ADP is really the biggest hang-up I have. I do think they want to work another back into the mix, and I’m thinking that’ll be Jeremy Langford, who looked very good in the second preseason game. The vibes are fairly decent here, and while I’m not particularly down on their key players (I don’t expect Forte, who keeps himself in amazing shape to fall off a cliff; I’m just not feeling good about him at a 13-15 ADP), I’m not high on anyone other than Royal and Bennet.
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