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OFF-SEASON REPORT #7
Published Online, May 4, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #7: Post-Draft Stock Watch - 5/4

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Rookie Rankings - 5/4
Depth Charts - 5/4
Post-Free Agency Stock Watch - 4/28
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 4/28
2015 Player Movement Tracker - 4/28
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

Updated Dynasty/Keeper Rankings - Coming mid-week, but check the site now for 2015/keeper rankings for the rookies
Off-Season Report #8: Post-Draft Rookie Report - Friday

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Post-Draft Stock Watch

by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 5/4/15

With the bulk of free agency and now the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it’s time to get down to business when it comes to analyzing and projecting this year’s fantasy assets – and all things considered, things are set up pretty well for us in the fantasy football world.

Free agency is about addressing needs for NFL teams, so things usually line up well for us, like the Chiefs finally getting a playmaker at WR in Jeremy Maclin. But in the draft, teams aren’t always focused on pressing needs, and we can sometimes get hosed, like we did when the 49ers drafted RB Carlos Hyde last year.

Fantasy owners by now should accept that competition reigns supreme in the NFL and that more players are getting on the field than ever before, so we can no longer get upset when our RB2 is faced with stiff competition, or when our top wideout is suddenly losing targets to an emerging youngster at the position. But on the whole, this year’s draft featured more key fantasy winners than losers, and most of the backfield situations are less cloudy post-draft than they were a year ago.

Here’s my look at everything that happened this weekend and what it all means…

Upgrades

Draft moves have made us more optimistic about these players for fantasy purposes.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck (Ind) – The drafting of WR Phillip Dorsett was a luxury pick that had us scratching our collective heads, but the fact is Luck now has the fastest pair of WRs in the league in Dorsett and T.Y. Hilton. Luck, of course, also has an effective future Hall of Fame receiver in Andre Johnsonat his disposal and a promising target in Donte Moncrief. He also has the best 1-2 punch at TE in the league in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. There are more capable bodies than we’re used to on his OL, and he should have the best running game of his short career behind him in 2015 with veteran Frank Gore, who is still performing at a very high level. So it’s officially an embarrassment of riches for Luck, who’s likely locked into the No. 1 spot at the QB position. Fantasy owners should be careful not to overvalue any QB this year, so the only question with Luck is where he should be slotted overall on cheat sheets this summer. We’re going to be against drafting him in the top 12, for sure, but while we wouldn’t advise using a top-25 pick on any QB this year, I still can’t call using a No. 2 pick on Luck a bad move.

Ryan Tannehill (Mia) – When I worked on Tannehill’s 2015 projection pre-draft, my relatively conservative numbers slotted him at No. 7 at the QB position – and then they went out and used their No. 1 pick on wideout DeVante Parker. In just a few short months, the Dolphins have completely overhauled their receiving corps to better fit the still-ascending Tannehill’s skill set, so the main question is will he and the passing attack need some time to get rolling in 2015, since four of Tannehill’s top-five targets are new to the team this year. Parker, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills are all just 22 years old, so Tannehill could have his cast of WRs for years to come. The Dolphins love Parker’s length, something they felt like they didn’t have enough length last season. And his likely top target, Landry, was obviously with Tannehill last year. If the ultra-talented Jordan Cameron can stay on the field and excel in this TE-friendly offense, this passing game is going to be tough to stop. And given Tannehill’s rushing potential and durability, he looks like a can’t-miss fantasy prospect who won’t cost nearly as much as the top options at the position.

Derek Carr (Oak) – The polished Amari Cooper immediately slides in as the team’s No. 1 WR, with capable veteran Michael Crabtree a lock now to start at X with James Jones released. So Carr’s WR corps is considerably improved from last year. The Raiders plan on using Cooper all over the field, including the slot, and he immediately gives Carr a strong go-to option and a player who can take any pass to the house, given his smooth and efficient movement. I was also hoping the Raiders would get Carr an upgrade at TE over Mychal Rivera, and the team obliged, using a 3^rd-round pick on TE Clive Walford, a pro-ready target and the second-best TE prospect in the draft. He’s got good separation, quickness, and hands, so he should quickly be a useful weapon for Carr. This Raider offense certainly hasn’t arrived yet, but they’ve done a really nice job of getting Carr a go-to receiver and more help overall in the passing game than he had as a rookie in 2014. This is going to give him a very good chance to continue to develop, and to hopefully push the ball down the field more this year.

Jay Cutler (Chi) – Here we go again with Cutler having two major talents at WR to make him intriguing for fantasy. One could argue that his WR corps is better than it was heading into 2014, given the addition of the sizable and explosive Kevin White, plus the free agent acquisition of slot receiver Eddie Royal, who caught 92 balls from Cutler back in Royal’s rookie 2008 campaign in Denver. Add in an effective vertical and red zone TE in Martellus Bennett, and Cutler’s supporting cast shouldn’t be a problem this year. I seriously doubt that I’ll ever again be high on Cutler as a fantasy pick, but new OC Adam Gase will be looking to take responsibilities off Cutler’s plate, which could work out. Cutler once again has upside, but we know he always has ridiculous downside, so he’s a high-end backup only.

Joe Flacco (Bal) – At least compared to where he was a week ago, Flacco is an upgrade. The Ravens are known for going BPA in the draft, but GMOzzie Newsome had some pressing needs on the offensive side of the ball, and the Ravens were all over them. In No. 1 pick Breshad Perriman, Flacco got a prototypical X receiver on the outside and the downfield threat that he’s been looking for since Torrey Smith left, and Perriman could be an instant upgrade over Smith in terms of the red zone, given his good size and his ability to win jump-ball opportunities and pluck even poorly thrown balls out of the air. Unlike Torrey, Perriman ran a full route tree in college and is a pretty clean route runner, but similar to Torrey, Perriman has had some issues with his hands and was never a high catch total receiver. After selecting Perriman, the team traded up three spots in the second round to land TE Maxx Williams with the 55^th overall selection. Williams was the top TE prospect this year, and the Ravens felt he was by far the best player on the board when they took him. Conveniently, it also addressed a huge need for Marc Trestman’s TE-friendly offense. Williams can be an impact player and a Jason Witten-like stabilizing force for Flacco. He’ll likely work in tandem with Crockett Gilmore, with Gilmore focusing on blocking and Williams testing defenses as the move TE. The Ravens also addressed their long-term needs at the position by selecting TE Nick Boyle out of Delaware in the 5^th round. And finally, the Ravens in the 4^th round added a back known for his receiving ability, critical in Trestman’s offense, in USC’s Buck Allen. Perriman and Williams may not step in and dominant from day one, but the Ravens have wisely restocked at the skill positions, which will give Flacco a chance to remain impactful as a streaming type for fantasy.

Cam Newton (Car) – One year ago, we loved the team’s pick of WR Kelvin Benjamin in the 1^st round for Newton because we were pining for a big-bodied receiver with a wide catch radius for Cam, who isn’t exactly an accurate passer. This year, we figured they’d add another wideout, but I was thinking it would be a player who complements Benjamin – a speedier wideout who can stretch the field. In 2^ndround pick Devin Funchess, they didn’t add a speedy receiver (although he surprisingly ran a 4.47 at Michigan’s pro day this spring after the combine and they did like how he plays faster for a big man). They got another huge receiver for Cam, and given the success of Benjamin last year, it’s hard to argue with the pick. I asked Funchess at the combine about playing the TE position, and he said his NFL position didn’t matter because he’s a “ball player,” and it appears he will be playing a lot of ball right out of the gate in Carolina, as Funchess already projects as a wide receiver starter here. Whether he’s lining up outside or inside, Funchess is a matchup nightmare, and paired with Benjamin, Cam doesn’t have to be a precision passer to matriculate the ball down the field, and he has a pair of massive receivers who are both excellent at making contested catches, which will be particularly useful inside the 20. I definitely like Newton as a fantasy pick a lot more than I did in 2014.

Teddy Bridgewater (Min) – The Vikings didn’t make a huge splash offensively for Bridgewater in the draft, but they did add a nice depth and backup option along the line in T.J. Clemmings, who slipped in the draft (4^th round pick) due to some injury concerns but is a 2^nd=round talent. They did add a guy in the 5^th round in WR Stefon Diggs, who is a former five-star recruit and a talented, quick-twitched athlete with the potential to be a dangerous utility player for Bridgewater out of the slot. Minnesota also added in the 5^th round a potential contributor in TE MyCole Pruitt, who ran the fastest 40 at the combine this year. But obviously, the big story is that Adrian Peterson is still a Viking, and he will likely be in the starting lineup behind Teddy come Week One. That’s a huge plus for Bridgewater, as AD can help offset any year-two slowdown or slump, and can play a large role in Bridgewater’s continuing development. Assuming there are no more hiccups in the team’s relationship with Peterson, the Vikings are in really good shape offensively, so much so that it would be a surprise if Bridgewater took a step back and didn’t continue to develop impressively.

Blake Bortles (Jac) – Nothing particularly earth-shattering here, but it was certainly nice to see the team get a RB capable of being a major difference-maker in T.J. Yeldon, and that’s a nice start for Bortles. They also added a likely Day One starter on the OL in G A.J. Cann, so the OL is actually looking fairly solid on paper right now. They also added a nice complementary receiver and possible slot weapon in Rashad Greene in the 5^th round, and he can fill in for the departed Cecil Shorts. There’s still a lot of growth needed for Bortles and his young receiving corps, but between their moves in the draft and the free agency additions of TE Julius Thomas and RT Jermey Parnell, they’ve done a nice job helping Bortles out.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram (NO) – The Saints didn’t add a WR with any of their nine picks, and they surprisingly used their first pick on a offensive tackle, which are yet more signs that they will stay committed to the run (and there have been plenty of other signs this off-season, like the trading of TE Jimmy Graham, a poor blocker, for C Max Unger). Our Greg Cosell thought No. 1 pick Andrus Peat was the best tackle in the draft, and you have to think his addition gives them some flexibility and an upgrade inside, since they already had a pair of solid tackles. Ingram will split time in the backfield with C.J. Spiller, but he’s locked into a large role and could even play more this year on passing downs, since Pierre Thomas andTravaris Cadet are gone, and since Spiller has been unreliable in pass protection.

Joseph Randle (Dal) – Obviously, we can’t overlook Darren McFadden, but I’ll list only Randle here because my gut tells me to overlook McFadden anyway. It’s true that Dallas’ OL can make anyone look good, but McFadden has looked bad the last couple of years and appears to have seriously slowed down. I was told the Cowboys were prepared to draft Jay Ajayi in the 2^nd round, but the medical scared them away, and after that the draft flowed in a way that precluded them from taking a shot on Ajayi or any other back. Randle isn’t a stud, and he’s made several questionable decisions off the field, but if I had to pick between him and McFadden at this very early stage, I’m picking Randle. Randle did fine work in 2014 – even if he did it against worn-down defenses – and he showcased game-changing ability running behind this great OL on his three TD runs, which came from 17, 40, and 65-yard runs. Randle showed good balance after first contact and a little shake-and-bake to also make defenders miss and some long speed on those runs, and he can also do solid work in the passing game. He’s a lower case version of DeMarco Murray, and it’s worth noting that his YPC average jumped almost 4.0 full yards in 2014 compared to his rookie 2013 season (just over 50 carries both seasons). A lot can change between now and draft time in the summer, and Randle could still face punishment from the league under the terms of personal conduct policy, plus talented veteran Ryan Williams isn’t dead yet and they did bring in an interesting UDFA in Synjyn Days out of Georgie Tech and he needs to be watched. But Randle definitely has a legit chance to be an impact fantasy asset behind this exceptional OL.

Wide Receivers

Charles Johnson (Min) – Viking OC Norv Turner has spent some time waxing poetic about Johnson this off-season, and the organization’s moves, both in the draft and in free agency, have backed up that support. They did add Mike Wallace in free agency, but Wallace projects at the Z receiver in this offense, whereas Johnson is an X all the way due to his size and downfield prowess. Some mock drafters projected Minnesota to draft a top wideout likeDeVante Parker or Kevin White, but that didn’t happen. We may never know if the Vikings would have taken White, but we do know they passed on Parker, which is notable because he was Teddy’s go-to guy for two-plus seasons at Louisville. Johnson has survived every single potential roadblock this off-season, and now he’s set to open the season playing the same position in Turner’s offense that made Josh Gordon a star in 2013. Johnson’s not as talented, but once the Vikings finally benched Cordarrelle Patterson last year, Johnson flashed some serious ability and was widely credited for the Vikings’ offensive surge late in the season. As for Patterson, I’m told the Vikings are not counting on him at all right now.

Brandin Cooks (NO) – To be completely honest, I’m a little worried about the diminutive Cooks holding up in 2015, since he’s seemingly poised to receive about 300 targets this year (give or take). Excluding the RBs, the Saints lost 206 targets with the departures of TE Jimmy Graham and WR Kenny Stills – and they’ve replaced them with no one, after they surprisingly didn’t add a wideout in free agency or now the draft. Clearly, the Saints are going to stay committed to their running game, but when you look at this offense it looks like it will be centered around the combination of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, and Cooks, plus whatever else they can get out of aging veteran Marques Colston. They do have some young players on the roster they like, particularly Nick Toon and Josh Hill, but Cooks looks more critical to this passing game than I could have ever imagined five months ago.

Tight Ends

Josh Hill (NO) – Hill was a noted TD vulture in 2014, and he sparked many “that-helps-no-one” tweets from disgruntled fantasy fans last year. But now he’s fully on the radar after the team traded away Jimmy Graham and then opted to pass on a TE in free agency and the draft. At this point, it's going to be hard for anyone to unseat Sean Payton’s new pet project. Hill, who led the team in tackles on special teams, has a big advantage over all comers in that he has the support of Peyton and two years of experience in the offense. Payton is big on consistency and doing all the little things right, and he already seems sold that Hill will bring that to the table, plus he’s also a pretty talented guy whose height, weight, and speed measure up well to most starting TEs in the league. Hill actually averaged only .3 yards a catch fewer than Travis Kelce, and he equaled Kelce’s 5 TDs in 2014. You’re likely going to be hearing a lot more about him in the coming months, as he’s quickly gone from being off the grid to landing in everyone’s top-30 at the position.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB) – ASJ was going to be an intriguing TE2 sleeper this year no matter what, since he didn’t show the masses enough to garner wide-ranging appeal, but we know they were very pleased with him in training camp last year and that he’s set to take a step forward in year two in a position that’s tough to master as a rookie. And now he gets an upgrade at QB in Jameis Winston. The Bucs addressed pressing needs on the OL with the 34^th (T Donovan Smith) and 61^st (C Ali Marpet) picks of the draft, so their line has been strengthened. What makes Winston intriguing for ASJ is that the QB is comfortable and willing to put the ball in tight spots in the middle of the field, and he throws with good anticipation. Florida State TE Nick O’Leary caught 75 passes in 27 games Winston started, and he was never the #1 target (Rashad Greene and Kelvin Benjamin were there). ASJ is far more talented than O’Leary, and a big TE can be a rookie QB’s best friend, so there should be more optimism for Seferian-Jenkins than there was before the draft.

Richard Rodgers (GB) – Rodgers isn’t a particularly gifted player, but neither is veteran Andrew Quarless, and compared to Quarless, Rodgers does stand out as being more of a playmaker. Rodgers played in every game as a rookie (five starts), but managed just 20/225/2 (11.3 YPC) on 28 targets, yet he did showcase his good hands – one of the best sets on the team, according to QB Aaron Rodgers – with a strong 71.4% catch rate. And now with free agency and the draft out of the way, the Packers appear to be banking on Rodgers as their top threat at the position (they did use a 6^th-round pick on Kennard Backman, but he looks like an H-back and special teams type). Rodgers should be a lot more comfortable in the offense in his second season, so he’s looking like an appealing late-round pick and sleeper in 2015.

Team Defenses

New York Jets Defense (NYJ) – This will probably be the kiss of death, but it’ll be hard not to put this defense at the top of our rankings. They have an aggressive defensive coach in Todd Bowles, and now they are loaded with talent in the secondary to go along with their already nasty front seven. This off-season they brought in CBs Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine to fix their glaring weakness from 2014. They also added Marcus Gilchrist at free safety, so this secondary should be one of the best in the league. The Jets already had one of the best front sevens in football, and now they have an embarrassment of riches by adding arguably the top defender in the draft in DL Leonard Williams. Second-round WR Devin Smith hasn’t returned kicks the past two seasons, but he’s incredibly fast and does have some experience in that area. It’s safe to say the Jets are a long way away from their 30^th overall fantasy ranking in 2014.

Minnesota Vikings Defense (Min) – The Vikings quietly finished as a top-10 fantasy defense in sacks (42) and in fantasy points (7.5 FPG) last season. Defensive-minded HC Mike Zimmer added to his already tough defense by selecting the top CB in the draft, Trae Waynes. Cornerback was the team’s biggest weakness on defense last season, and Waynes should help with their sack and INT totals. The Vikings also used their second-round pick to bolster their linebacker unit with Eric Kendricks. The Vikings will now start six first-round picks on this defense, so they are loaded with talent and are poised for another top-10 performance in 2015.

Houston Texans Defense (Hou) – This Texan defense starts and stops with DL J.J. Watt, but they continue to improve the players around Watt this off-season. They brought in huge NT Vince Wilfork to beef up their run defense, and FS Rahim Moore came over from Denver to boost this secondary. The Texans also used their first two picks on CB Kevin Johnson and ILB Benardrick McKinney, so this Texan defense just isn’t all about Watt. The Texans finished as the #2 fantasy defense in 2014 (9.1 FPG), and this unit will definitely be the strength of the Texans once again in 2015.

Denver Broncos Defense (Den) – The Bronco D wasn’t bad last year, but when a team is heavily invested in pass rush and it doesn’t necessarily rush the passer all that well, it can run into issues. The Broncos had a solid, but not exceptional, 41 sacks, and forced only 25 turnovers, which was really a big issue. DeMarcus Ware is another year older, and we always have to worry about Von Miller’s injury history, but first-round pick Shane Ray will provide some very nice depth, and Denver’s secondary remains very good (with Bradley Roby a year older now). The addition of Ray to this crew could help keep everyone fresh, as could help the Bronco offense if it runs the ball a little bit more.

Atlanta Falcons Defense (Atl) – Yeah, the Falcon D was awful last year, and it’s one of the major reasons Mike Smith is no longer employed. So while it’s unlikely Atlanta will be one of your favorite D/ST targets come August, just remember that new coach Dan Quinn has already come in and put his stamp on things. The Falcons signed Brooks Reed in free agency, spent their first-round pick on a no-doubter LEO fit in Vic Beasley, and added the talented Jalen Collins to a young and very gifted secondary. This defense is probably a year or two away from being legitimate, as it still needs more rushers, but the secondary could create some big plays that have been sorely missing for years in Atlanta.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense (Jac) – Similar to the Falcons, you’re not going to be running out on draft day to select the Jags, but this unit remains one to keep an eye on. It seems Gus Bradley has finally nabbed his LEO rusher in #3 overall pick Dante Fowler, our favorite defensive player in the draft and an absolutely perfect fit for what the Jags want. Jacksonville also boosted the depth with underrated Day 3 picks in S James Sample and DL Mike Bennett. FA signing Dan Skuta and the emerging Telvin Smith solidify the LB position, and if the secondary can take a step forward, the Jags could look really nice defensively as soon as this year.

Downgrades

Draft developments have made us less optimistic about these particular players for fantasy purposes.

Quarterbacks

Zach Mettenberger (Ten) – Not only do the Titans have no plans to trade Mettenberger, they’ve already anointed top pick Marcus Mariota as the starter, which doesn’t exactly strike us as a good idea. And we’re sure that Mettenberger isn’t too happy. However, removing a legitimate competition does make some sense because they’re completely different players, and the plan for Mariota has to be different than the plan for Mettenberger. You simply can’t draft Mariota and then have him back up a 6^th-round pick, so Mettenberger looks to be done in Tennessee. If you’re holding Mettenberger in a dynasty league, at least viable starting QBs who didn’t have a viable path to the top of his team’s depth chart tend to get traded, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mettenberger on another team at some point relatively soon.

Running Backs

Tre Mason (Stl) – The Rams can play it safe with Todd Gurley, the 10^th pick of the 2015 draft, in part because they have Mason, the 75^th pick of the 2014 draft. They’ll likely shoot for a timeline that has him ready at some point in the preseason, but could still ease him into action, which is actually what they did with Mason last year and Zac Stacy (who was traded to the Jets for a 7^th round pick) in 2013. It’s not inconceivable that Gurley opens the season on PUP if he has any setbacks, but we’re not going to know about that until August. Regardless, you don’t draft Gurley 10^thoverall to not use him as your bell cow. Mason has explosive feet and lateral agility, and he has a gliding running style with deceptive speed, but he’s not a power back. That means he’ll likely settle in as a changeup to the larger and more powerful Gurley, which is obviously a problem for Mason’s fantasy value. It’s also hard to call Mason a potential 3^rd-down back here with a healthy Gurley, since he lacks height and strong technique and effectiveness in pass protection, plus the Rams have had a man-crush on the pedestrian Benny Cunningham, who is probably their best receiving back. Even if Gurley is on PUP for most of training camp, he’ll obviously be drafted before Mason, so those who select Gurley will likely have to invest a pick in Mason as protection, and it remains to be seen how high a pick Mason will command.

Denard Robinson (Jac) – The Jags in retrospect may have overpaid a little by taking our No. 3 pre-draft RB T.J. Yeldon as the third back selected and at 36 overall – but that just goes to show they didn’t view Robinson as a legit bell-cow back. I’ve never considered him that, either, and now Robinson looks destined to settle into a changeup role. That should still be a key role behind Yeldon, who always split time at Alabama and never had more than 207 carries in his three seasons there. Yeldon’s a bigger back who runs tall, but he has extremely light feet and can really “slash-n-go,” the style you look for in a zone runner, which is the blocking scheme they run in Jacksonville. Yeldon does need to pick up the offense quickly and work on consistency in his blocking and his ball security (10 career fumbles) to become the guy for the Jags, but Yeldon fits the profile of a back who could be a better pro than college player, and you could argue that his lack of volume in college is a positive, since he doesn’t have a lot of miles on his tires. He’s a better a receiver than his numbers indicate, and he’s also a high-character guy, and he’s going to be given every chance to quickly emerge as the lead back here over Robinson and Toby Gerhart. The Jags are still a work in progress offensively, but their OL has been upgraded this off-season and could actually be decent.

Devonta Freeman (Atl) – The good news is that this downgrade could have been more empathic, like how it would have been if the Falcons had nabbed Todd Gurley in the draft. We knew major competition for snaps and touches were coming for Freeman, and now we know from whom it will be coming in 3^rd-round pick Tevin Coleman out of Indiana. Running for over 2000 yards in just 12 games as a junior with the Hoosiers this past season, defenses knew Coleman was getting the ball, and they still couldn’t stop him. He’s extremely patient and instinctive, and he’s always square to the line of scrimmage, which makes him a good fit for Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme. But while Coleman is by no means a weak runner, he (like Freeman) doesn’t have a big frame and isn’t likely to be a pile mover, so he could be a little too reliant on popping off long runs, which can be tough in the NFL. So like Freeman, we have questions about Coleman’s ability to be a legitimate sustainer at the next level (Coleman is taller, but Freeman is actually a bigger and more compact back). You have to give the edge to Coleman, who was drafted by the current coaching staff whereas Freeman was not, but we’ll likely see all three backs (including Antone Smith) getting opportunities for snaps and touches. All said, this could have been a lot worse for Freeman dynasty owners.

Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West (Cle) – The good news is the Browns added a very talented and extremely versatile offensive lineman in Cameron Erving 19^thoverall, giving them one of the more gifted OLs in the league. And they will clearly run the ball a ton, given their strength up front and deficiencies in the passing game. The bad news is they drafted RB Duke Johnson with the 77^th pick in the 3^rd round. The team likes Crowell, but they don’t really view him as a true feature back, and the Johnson pick speaks to that because RB wasn’t a big need on paper. As for West, unfortunately for those who have him in dynasty, they’re down on him, and I was told they might look to trade him. It’s obviously very early, but I’m told the Browns are looking to “start” Johnson once he learns the offense, and if that’s the case Crowell will likely be in the mix still for 10-12 touches a game, so the big loser here is West. But Crowell’s very early ADP this year is around 65 with him being about the 20^th RB taken off the board. Both numbers need to be dropped now, especially Crowell’s ranking among other RBs.

Bishop Sankey (Ten) – This time last year, we weren’t nearly as high on Sankey as the rest of the fantasy community was. Most people wised up eventually and moved Sankey down the ADP board, yet Sankey still fell well short of even those lowered expectations. The problem with Sankey is that he’s a back who needs volume to produce – and he’s not big, strong, or talented enough to merit volume touches. So with the bruising David Cobb added in the draft at the position, it looks like Sankey could be just a complementary player for the Titans. Tennessee needs to do whatever it can to help ease QB Marcus Mariota into the starting job, and the best way to do that is to run the rock. The fact that they used a 4^th-round pick on FB Jalston Fowler is a clear sign that they want to go ball-control on the ground, and that’s what Ken Whisenhunt is usually about, anyway. Cobb will have to prove worthy of playing time this summer, but if he does, I think the Titans will part ways with veteran Shonn Greene and will be inclined to give Cobb 10+ carries a game.

Chris Ivory (NYJ) – What a disaster. With two similar backs in Ivory and Stevan Ridley on the roster (plus the re-signed Bilal Powell), I thought maybe the Jets would draft a speedy complementary back to team with their bigger power backs. They not only failed to do that, but they also traded for another power back in Zac Stacy! Ivory still leads the way here, but if he couldn’t mange even 10 points a game in a PPR while receiving over 50% of the RB carries in this backfield in 2014, he’s less appealing than he’s ever been with all the competition for 1^st- and 2^nd-down work in this backfield. I’ll be avoiding all these guys.

Wide Receivers

Marquess Wilson (Chi) – We’ve certainly covered Wilson the last 12-14 months as an interesting prospect who might rise up the depth chart and collect significant snaps, but we haven’t really hyped up as much as others have. He’s got good size at 6’4” and very good speed, but I see a raw player who, despite his good speed, has averaged only 7.3 yards a catch on only 19 career receptions. And given the selection of WR Kevin Whitewith the 7^th overall pick of the draft, as well as the free agency addition of slot receiver Eddie Royal, Wilson should continue to underwhelm with his production. At this point, if you’re looking as Wilson as a dynasty prospect, the best you can hope for is that 2016 free agent Alshon Jeffery leaves the team after this season and they pair Wilson up with White. Wilson is off the radar for now as a 2015 fantasy prospect.

James Jones (FA) – Just as I was beginning to write Jones’ downgrade paragraph, it was announced that the team had released him, so the club wrote my copy for me. Jones can still contribute, but he’s never been a quick-twitch athlete, and at 31 years old he just doesn’t move well these days. Jones will find a home and can still contribute, but his days of being a draftable fantasy commodity are likely over.

Tight Ends

Mychal Rivera (Oak) – Rivera is a not a player I’ve thrown much support behind because I’ve always viewed him as a “tweener” type who was merely a stopgap for the club. He’s not big enough to be a lead TE, and he actually doesn’t run that well. The Raiders confirmed on draft weekend after they used the 68^th overall pick on TE Clive Walford that they wanted an upgrade at the position. I’ve heard some coaches around the league have concerns about Walford, but he’s a pro-ready ascending prospect who should play at a high level for a long time if he does what he needs to do to be an NFL contributor.

Holding Steady

These players have been in the news in one way or another, but we think their fantasy stock remains largely unchanged.

Sam Bradford (QB, Phi) – Obviously, the Marcus Mariota speculation was based in some truth – after all, Chip Kelly has admitted that the Eagles gauged how much it would cost to move up and determined the cost was too high. In fact, the Eagles may not be admitting just how interested in Mariota they were because they now have to “live with” Bradford at the QB position. We do know Bradford has exceptional physical skills and the traits to succeed in this offense, but we don’t know just how much of those skills are gone after two ACL tears in two years, nor how much can be rectified with a change of scenery to a much better offense than he played under in St. Louis. However, one area Bradford has been very good when on the field is in limiting turnovers, and there’s nothing Kelly hates more than stalled drives because of errant throws or bad decisions. Bradford’s INT rate in his NFL career is 2.2%, ridiculously low, and he should have even more room to operate in Philadelphia. For fantasy, here’s the good news – Bradford has the same kind of upside that Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez showed in Philly, he’s more gifted than either guy, and he’ll be far cheaper to acquire on draft day than Mariota would have been in Philly. Bradford will have plenty of skeptics in the fantasy world this summer, which should keep his ADP very reasonable. He’ll be someone to pair with a more reliable option, and perhaps someone to “handcuff” with Sanchez in MFL10/best-ball leagues. It’s fair to be pessimistic, given the litany of injuries and his drop-off in his play the last few seasons, but to ignore his potential if healthy this summer would be a mistake because if Bradford has any shot at a career resurgence, this is one of the best spots for him.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pit) – Big Ben is coming off the best season of his career, but he’s 32 years old now and has had some serious injury issues in the recent past. He’s getting hit a lot less now, thanks to a finally solid OL and a great back in Le’Veon Bell, but since he’s getting older, it would be nice to see more weapons for him to ensure he keeps the production coming. I didn’t exactly expect them to add to his offensive arsenal, but they did with the 3^rd-round selection of WR Sammie Coates. Coates is a dynamic prospect with all the tools to become a big-play receiver, but he’ll need to clean up his sloppy hands, which makes him a bit of a boom-or-bust prospect. Coincidentally, in our Pre-Draft rookie report, we wrote that “we wouldn’t be surprised to see him flash in a couple games next season like Steeler rookie WR Martavis Bryant did in 2014.” And now he’s Bryant’s teammate. This pick was an indictment on Markus Wheaton, a 2013 3^rd-round pick, but let’s not forget the team’s overall track record drafting WRs is very good. Additionally, the Steelers are high on 5^th-round pick Jesse James, a TE out of Penn State, and view him as a possible heir apparent to Heath Miller. For now, James could be a nice red-zone option for Roethlisberger, who should, in fact, keep the production coming due to a fine collection of skill players and playmakers.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG) – We can’t complain about them getting another offensive lineman, but Ereck Flowers is a guy our Greg Cosell thinks may have to move to guard, which is interesting because Justin Pugh is a guy they picked in the first round in 2013 who has struggled at tackle and might also need to settle in as a guard. Perhaps one of them (likely Pugh) will replace LG John Jerry, the weak link on this OL. Regardless, the Giant line is a lot younger now, and it should be better off, especially with G Geoff Schwartzhealthier heading into the season. Their run blocking should improve, so Manning should have a good chance to take advantage of his impressive arsenal of skill players in his second year in Ben McAdoo’s offense. Also, we got some good news today (5/4) on WR Victor Cruz, who according to GM Jerry Reese is (surprisingly) at about 80% and is expected to be ready for training camp.

Carson Palmer (QB, Ari) – Offensive line wasn’t a big need for the Cardinals, but they didn’t expect OT D.J. Humphries to be there at 24 overall, and they jumped on him. Humphries is a guy our Greg Cosell loves, and Greg thinks he’s the most athletic tackle in the draft class. Given the free agency additions of G Mike Iupati, this Cardinal line was looking like a top-10 line on paper before the Humphries addition, and now it looks like it could even be a top-5 line in 2015 (if 2013 No. 1 pick Jonathan Cooper can step up). This is obviously big for the relatively immobile Palmer, who is coming off an ACL. His return from that injury will have to be monitored all summer, but Palmer was very effective for fantasy when he played last year (at least 20 points in every game he finished). The Cards also added a huge back and unique player in the draft in 3^rd-round pick David Johnson. In Johnson, Palmer will have a big body in to help pass protect and potentially more of a sustainer in the running game, which should help the offense (even if we didn’t see Johnson that way). Palmer’s not exactly loaded at receiver, and it was curious to see the Michael Floyd trade rumors come out on draft weekend, but there’s enough weaponry here for Palmer to produce again if his knee checks out, especially if second-year TE Troy Niklas (also a great blocker) can contribute.

Andre Ellington (RB, Ari) – There was serious concern about Ellington’s stock due to the team’s strong interest in adding a big back to their offensive arsenal. And while they did just that with David Johnson out of Northern Iowa, Johnson is a unique player in that he didn’t play like an interior runner or short-yardage back despite his frame. Although Johnson is 6’ 1” and 224 pounds, he ran a 4.5 40 at the combine, and he’s known for his receiving skills as a former high school wideout. So he’s kind of a bigger version of Ellington, who according to head coach Bruce Arians will have his same role in 2015. Arians believes Johnson can do everything Ellington can do, so Johnson primarily will be a back-up plan in case Ellington succumbs to injury again. Of course, Ellington’s value does take a hit, since Johnson can be a contributor in the passing game and at the very least may get a shot as the goal-line back (he scored 49 rushing TDs in his four-year college career), and they certainly need to dial Ellington’s touches back a little in an effort to keep him healthy. We’ll have a better idea of Johnson’s role in the summer, but Ellington still looks like a foundation player for Arians, who told me 15 months ago he wanted to build his offense around Ellington’s versatility and speed. That still appears to be the case, but not to the extent that it was in 2014, which is probably a good thing in terms of keeping Ellington on the field.

Latavius Murray (RB, Oak) – Despite his great success in limited action last year, the Raiders aren’t going to just hand Murray the starting job. In fact, I’ve been told that there was some frustration with him within the organization because he doesn’t hit the hole hard on a consistent basis. Of course, when he does hit the hold hard, special things can happen, like his 80-yard TD run on about his 10^th carry of the season last year. The Raiders did sign free agent Roy Helu, and they’re giving Trent Richardson an opportunity, but neither player poses a big threat to Murray in terms of the starting job and lead role, so Murray should win the job going away for Jack Del Rio, who’s all about the running game on offense. And for our purposes here, note the Raiders bypassed the position in a deep RB class, which certainly helps Murray’s chances. I did some radio over draft weekend with Murray’s former teammate Maurice Jones-Drew, and I, of course, asked him about Murray. MJD likes him quite a bit, and his only concern is his upright running style. That’s my main concern, too, because I just can’t see him failing us in the fantasy world if he’s on the field and getting the ball.

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) – I’m listing him here because there seems to be a lot of skepticism this year with Hyde, and they did use a 4^th-round pick on intriguing RB Mike Davis. However, I was told by someone close to the situation not to read much into the Davis pickup as it relates to Hyde and his role. Hyde is clearly set to get the bulk of the carries on 1^st and 2^nd down, the short-yardage work, and he’ll be the guy they use as their closer.Reggie Bush’s role should be visible but not substantial. The main question mark in this backfield is Kendall Hunter and his ability to stay healthy, and that’s probably where the Davis pick comes in. The 49ers have also drafted a RB now seven straight years. Some seem to feel as if the 49er OL is in tatters after losing G Mike Iupati, and while Iupati has been a dominant run-blocker, the Niners do still have key veterans Joe Staley, Alex Boone, and Anthony Davis up front, so it’s still an above-average OL. Davis is a guy we’ll be keeping a close eye on, though, because he could easily settle in as the handcuff for Hyde. He’s a short, compact runner with thick legs and a “classic RB” build, and we actually compared some elements of his game to Frank Gore in our Pre-Draft Rookie Report (while also covering his work ethic issues).

Jonathan Stewart (RB, Car) – With veteran DeAngelo Williams off to Pittsburgh, and with Stewart entering his eight season with serious availability issues still, we knew the Panthers were in the market for a RB in the draft – and they did add a back in Cameron Artis-Payne out of Auburn. Artis-Payne is a big, downhill back, and he does already look like a viable handcuff to Stewart, but we’re not very impressed with the rookie’s tape, which is worth noting for those invested in Stewart for this year and beyond. Only a 5^th-round pick, Artis-Payne is very straight-line and stiff; he doesn’t make anyone miss, and at times he won’t hit the hole even if it’s blocked for him. The rookie takes more direct hits than he needs to, and he’s a sluggish player with no second gear. With pass-protection issues to boot, we really don’t see him as much of a threat to Stewart, so the veteran’s value will simply come down to whether or not he’s on the field.

Justin Forsett (RB, Bal) – We weren’t terribly concerned with the Ravens drafting one of the many intriguing backs in this draft class, but we certainly didn’t rule that out, since Forsett is 29 years old. But he’s a “young” 29, and we’re not very concerned by the Ravens using a 4^th-round pick on Javorius “Buck” Allen out of USC. We weren’t particularly impressed with Allen’s running on tape, and in our pre-draft report, we discussed that and covered Allen’s reliable hands and suddenness as a route runner, pegging him as nothing more than an intriguing third-down type of threat. Allen caught 51 balls last year with 7 and 9-catch games, so the addition makes sense, given the need for pass-catching backs in Marc Trestman’s offense. But there’s no real reason to be overly concerned about a rookie 4^th-round pick taking significant snaps and targets away from the veteran Forsett.

Jeremy Hill/Giovanni Bernard (RBs, Cin) – The Bengals have been quite clear what their offensive identity is with their recent drafts, and it’s all about strength in the trenches and running the football. Cincy didn’t have a major need on the OL, but they had no qualms going BPA and taking two tackles with their first and second rounds picks on Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher, who was considered a viable No.1 pick by many. Veteran tackles Andrew Whitworth (33) and Andre Smith (28) are entering the final years of their contracts, but Whitworth was fantastic in 2014, so he’s hardly done. Both Ogbuehi (who is coming off a knee injury) and Fisher can also move inside and play guard, as they both did so in college, so Hill and Bernard will be afforded an incredibly deep offensive line group, and let’s not forget this was a top-10 OL blocking for the run and the pass in 2014. Cincy was a little thin at WR heading into the draft, but they didn’t use a pick on a wideout until pick #238 (Mario Alford), which is another sign that they’ll continue to be all about these two former 2^nd-round RBs.

Charles Sims (RB, TB) – The Bucs weren’t expected to draft a RB this year, but given the futility they endured in 2014 at the position I wasn’t ruling it out. They wound up addressing other needs, so we’re back to trying to figure out which Buc back is the guy to get. I’m not sure if I want to try any of these guys on for size, but among Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey, and Charles Sims, I’m going Sims. The Bucs won’t pick up the 5^th-year option on Martin, which is no surprise, and will make him a free agent in 2016. The pesky Rainey remains and will likely be in the mix, but with Sims fully recovered from his ankle injury, we should see the best he has to offer behind an OL that is still a question but has been upgraded in the draft. Sims looked sluggish last year, but he wasn’t ready to play coming off ankle surgery, and he did show off some of the receiving potential that appealed to the club when they drafted him. The coaching staff didn’t inherit Sims, and they are still very high on him, so barring a miraculous return to form for Martin this summer, Sims is the guy to get here.

Allen Robinson (WR, Jac) – There was a lot of talk about the Jaguars possibly taking Amari Cooper or even Kevin White with the 3^rd overall pick in the draft. It didn’t happen, which locks Robinson into the starting X receiver spot for the Jags. Robinson had an unceremonious end to a fine debut season, suffering a stress fracture in his right foot that cost him the final six games of the season. But the 2^nd-rounder emerged as Blake Bortles’ top target in the first 10 games, and he was pretty darn impressive. He’ll now have every chance to build on his chemistry with Bortles, and he’s the safest fantasy WR option on the team in 2015.

Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson (WRs, TB) – One could argue that these two deserve a slight upgrade because it’s very fair to believe Jameis Winston is an upgrade at QB from what these two big wideouts worked with in 2014. Winston isn’t perfect, but he’s got a little Eli Manning in him in that he has the ability to shake off poor plays, and isn’t afraid to pull the trigger on tough throws. He’s known for leaning heavily on his talent on the outside, and with these two guys he’s got a pair of huge receivers who will welcome any and all opportunities, especially jump balls and contested catches.

Brian Quick and Kenny Britt (WRs, Stl) – There were many mock drafts that had the Rams taking a WR at 10^th overall, and while I get the Best Player Available approach, which they implemented in the first round, I didn’t really see the Rams going wideout in the first. They didn’t, so their receiving corps hasn’t changed post-draft. Quick and Britt are your likely starters, with inside guys Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey well in the mix. The Rams did get stud RB Todd Gurley, who can instantly make this offense better once he’s ready to go. But while they did address their OL in the draft, using three of their first five picks on OTs, they’re going to be relying on some young players up front. That’s a concern because Nick Folesisn’t very elusive and can struggle when pressured. But if Foles is upright, he does have a strong enough arm to get these two big, downfield receivers the ball.

Dwayne Bowe (WR, Cle) – The Browns really like size at receiver, which helps explain the addition of WR Vince Mayle 123^rd overall in the 4^th round (17^th WR taken). But Mayle is more of a developmental prospect as opposed to a plug-and-play guy, so for what it’s worth, with no other wideouts of note added in free agency or the draft, Bowe looks like their No. 1 receiver and top target in this passing game.

Josh Huff (WR, Phi) – If you acquired Huff in your dynasty league before the draft, or spent a pick on him in an MFL10/best-ball league, we’re not sure much has really changed post-draft. It would have been a huge upset if the Eagles didn’t draft a receiver, and the fact that they drafted only one (1^st-round pick Nelson Agholor) is about as good of news for Huff as you could anticipate. The Eagles are practically begging for someone to unseat Riley Cooper, and Miles Austin is just a place-holder/depth guy. With Jordan Matthews likely to see the majority of his snaps in the slot again, it wouldn’t be shocking if Huff and Agholor were actually the Eagles’ two primary perimeter WRs this year. Coach Chip Kelly likes to use his perimeter guys interchangeably, and both Huff and Agholor can play outside and win on the inside. Huff has some explosive ability, so if his stock drops even a little bit because of the Agholor addition, he becomes even more appealing.

Owen Daniels (TE, Den) – The Broncos did use a 3^rd-round pick on TE Jeff Heuerman, who was the fourth TE on our pre-draft board. But while we like Heuerman, he’s a prospect who looks like he’ll need some time to develop. He can be used all over the field, and he’s a solid blocker who has improved during his college career, but he’s not quite a finished product and could get bigger and stronger. Heuerman’s never been featured as a receiver during college, so he will take a little time to reach his full potential. He does have the athletic ability to have a much better NFL career than he had in college, but Daniels should be set for a large role in this passing game and should worry more about veteran backup Virgil Green than the rookie.

We’ll See

Keep an eye on these players and situations. It may be too early to make a call one way or the other on them, but they are situations worth watching.

Matt Ryan (QB, Atl) – We all know Ryan’s a very good and very durable QB, and I’m not down on him at all for 2015 – but I could be higher on him. The Falcons did get him a potential homerun hitter in the backfield in Tevin Coleman, which was nice, but with free agency and the draft now in the rearview, it’s a little disconcerting how the only additions to Ryan’s receiving corps, which lost critical third receiver Harry Douglas, are Leonard Hankerson, Jacob Tamme, Tony Moeaki, and rookie 4^th-round pick Justin Hardy. Hardy is a nice player and the Douglas replacement, but Douglas had six years of experience with Ryan, and their chemistry has noticeably improved over the last few seasons. It’s hard to expect Douglas-like contributions from Hardy, which is a concern because Ryan’s receiving corps is a Julio Jones or Roddy White injury away from being very thin. A consistent executor, Ryan always finds a way to get the job done, and he won’t likely command a top-50 pick in fantasy drafts this year, but fantasy owners should at least be aware of his thin receiving corps.

Tony Romo (QB, Dal) – The Cowboys surprisingly didn’t draft a RB, which should mean Romo’s passing attempts are on the rise, which isn’t hard to envision, considering he threw it only 29 times a game in 2014. However, at this point in Romo’s career, I’d rather see him throw it fewer than 500 times a season and have a dominant running attack that leads to efficient play and production from Romo, as it was last year (70% completion rate and a 34-9 TD/INT rate). In addition, Dallas didn’t use a draft pick on a WR and are very thin at the position after Dez Bryant, plus No. 2 TE Gavin Escobar hasn’t shown much. I’m not exactly panicking and Romo won’t cost too much in fantasy drafts. But if Dez gets hurt, Romo could be in trouble.

Geno Smith (QB, NYJ) – While the Jets did add a name player at the QB position, that player – Baylor’s Bryce Petty – is going to need some time before he’s ready to step into an NFL lineup. Smith will still have to stave off veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who always seems to find a way to get on the field, but Geno gets the first crack at this starting job. Under new OC Chan Gailey, and with a pretty impressive arsenal of weapons, Geno has a chance. In addition to off-season addition Brandon Marshall, the Jets grabbed the best pure deep threat in the draft in Devin Smith, giving Geno and the Jet offense some much-needed speed. I didn’t buy into any of the hype about this Jet offense last year (and there actually was some), and I still think Geno will be an inconsistent player. But this year I do think they are set up to have some success.

Joique Bell (RB, Det) – The Lions were 29^th in the NFL in yards per carry last year, and Bell has now been below 4.0 YPC the last two seasons, so he’s officially on blast with the drafting of the intriguing Ameer Abdullah in the 2^nd round. The Lions used their first pick on a big, strong G in Laken Tomlinson, traded for G Manny Ramirez, and they also drafted a FB in the 5^th round, so they’re looking to upgrade their running game in more ways than just brining in Abdullah. That addition is probably worse news for backupTheo Riddick, but then again Abdullah, while a very productive receiver, does have some pass-protection issues due mainly to his small frame, and some fumbling problems. Ultimately, he’s a threat to both Riddick and Bell because he’s more dynamic than Bell and offers much more three-down value than Riddick. And the bottom line is they used a high pick, 54^th overall, on Abdullah, who looks like a good fit for Joe Lombardi’s offense. Bell should continue to be the main back for at least the start of the season, but Abdullah is going to push him for snaps and touches. And also, for what it’s worth, the Lions brought in one of the most intriguing UDFAs in RBZach Zenner out of South Dakota State. Zenner is a solid football player, but he’s an average athlete.

Lamar Miller (RB, Mia) — Well, the Dolphins didn’t draft Todd Gurley, and they were rumored to be interested in him. Miami also added another offensive weapon in the draft to go along with all the threats added in the off-season, so that should help ensure he’s running against lighter boxes. However, Miami gave Miller more than 15 carries only four times last year, and that’s despite being very thin at the position once Knowshon Moreno was out of the mix early in the season. Miller ran hard last year, but he’s still not the hammer the Dolphins are looking for in their backfield, and a healthy Jay Ajayi is. Ajayi obviously has the serious concerns with his knee and some teams took him off their boards completely, causing him to fall well past where many expected. But if we take a short-term view of this situation, Ajayi is already the favorite to assume the power runner role. While not the homerun hitter Miller is, Ajayi at his best is superior to Miller in every other area, and that includes blocking and receiving (especially receiving). Ajayi is so talented and versatile that it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he took over as the lead back here, assuming he’s healthy. We certainly don’t know about the rookie’s health right now, so Miller is only a “we’ll see” guy, but I’d be concerned if I owned Miller in a keeper league, at least for the here and now.

Alfred Morris (RB, Was) – Why the Redskins used a 3^rd-round pick in a deep RB class on a player in Matt Jones who wasn’t particularly productive in college and has been hampered by a twice-torn meniscus and other maladies is beyond me, but they certainly did need to add some quality depth behind Morris, whose role as the lead back remains secure. Interestingly, we didn’t think Jones was a back who would appeal to a predominant zone-blocking team, since when running zone, he looked indecisive and slow with poor vision, robbing him of his most natural trait, his power. This could be a sign that Jay Gruden is leaning toward more to north-south power running, and they have intimated that they’d like to lean that way both this year and last year. Otherwise, Morris did love the #1 pick of Brandon Scherff, who is known more for his physical run blocking and who will help the offense by upgrading the right side of their line protection-wise. That’s good, and they didn’t draft a back who we think is a lock to assume third-down snaps (although they have some guys on the roster to replace Roy Helu). But it’ll be interesting to see if they have any designs on giving the rookie Jones some work in 2015, especially if he blocks as well as they think he can. If so, that’s a major problem for Morris, who is entering the final year of his contract.

LeSean McCoy (RB, Buf) – To their credit, the Bills did use an earlier pick on an offensive lineman, and 3^rd-round pick John Miller out of Louisville is a strong and physical guard who fits Rex Ryan and OC Greg Roman’s ground-and-pound approach. Buffalo also didn’t have a No. 1 pick, so expectations couldn’t be too high. Yet, they didn’t exactly make a big splash up front, with Miller the only O-lineman drafted, and the Bills also used a 5^th-round pick on RB Karlos Williams, who could make the team at Bryce Brown’s expense. Williams isn’t a threat to McCoy, but taking a RB wasn’t exactly necessary for the Bills. The bottom line is I would have felt better about McCoy had the Bills used the higher draft pick and/or more draft picks on the OL.

Matt Forte and Ka’Deem Carey (RBs, Chi) – It’s a leap of faith to believe 4^th-round pick Jeremy Langford can seriously challenge the veteran Forte for snaps, but it’s worth mentioning that Forte has a ton of mileage on his tires and is in the final year of his contract, and that HC John Foxhas actively utilized a tandem approach in his backfields in the past. Langford is an upright runner with choppy steps, and he’s still learning the RB position, but he’s just a really good all-around football player who has experience as a WR, so he can split out wide and in the slot. His blocking technique gets away from him at times, but he’s a very willing pass protector who actually studied Forte while working on his pass-pro. Langford also brings speed to the equation, as his 4.42 40-yard dash was the fastest at his position at the Combine, so he could carve out a role at some point this year alongside Forte. It’s premature to downgrade the aging Forte based on the Langford pickup, but while some view Langford as a complementary player only, this addition isn’t particularly good news for Carey’s long-term outlook. Carey is more of a volume back who might not be good enough to merit major volume, whereas Langford at worst could be effectively teamed down the road with a big, bruising back. Also keep in mind that Jacquizz Rodgers is in the mix as a changeup, so we can’t expect Forte to handle the ridiculously high percentage of the backfield touches that he did in 2014.

Danny Woodhead (RB, SD) – The Chargers moved up in the first round to snag RB Melvin Gordon, which is a killer for all the other backs on the roster, but if healthy this summer, Woodhead should have a role. GM Tom Telesco called Gordon “the best pass-protecting back in the draft,” which is a major oversell but worth noting. As for the best pass-protecting back on the roster, that’s Woodhead. Telesco told me two years ago they he prefers a backfield by committee, and HC Mike McCoy is also a fan of multiple players being involved in their backfield. While Gordon is the man on 1^st and 2^nd down and will give them the homerun hitter they wanted badly, someone else is going to get a solid number of touches behind him.Branden Oliver can catch the ball as well, and Donald Brown, while bad last year, is not out of the mix just yet. But for what it’s worth, the safe money should be on Woodhead as the best changeup and 3^rd-down option.

Alfred Blue (RB, Hou) – The Texans did bring in RFA Chris Polk, who could seriously challenge Blue for the top back-up spot behind Arian Foster, but at least they didn’t draft a back of note (7^th rounder Kenny Hilliard isn’t as talented as Blue), which is something of an endorsement of Blue. I like Blue, but he posted a miserable 3.1 YPC last year on a high number of carries (169), which is definitely a big concern. Polk was at 3.7 YPC last year, so he wasn’t much better, but he did emerge as a viable goal-line back for the Eagles late in the 2014 season. Blue will have to improve in his second season to secure the backup and handcuff role, but at least he’s an incumbent here and doesn’t have much to beat out to secure that #2 role, and it’s an important role based on Foster’s large workload and injury concerns.

Tyler Gaffney (RB, NE) – Gaffney is merely a guy worth noting, as he has played exactly 0.0 meaningful snaps of football and spent his entire rookie year on IR. But remember the Patriots went out of their way to snag him off waivers last year when the Panthers tried to sneak him through. The Patriots didn’t draft a running back, and the only other backs behind LeGarrette Blount on their depth chart are Travaris Cadet and James White. Gaffney’s a ridiculous athlete who never seemed to put it all together at Stanford, but the Patriots clearly see something in him as a pass-catcher. He could be a late-round best-ball flyer, and someone to watch in dynasty leagues.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, Ind) – Given the criticism the organization has taken due to the selection of Phillip Dorsett, you wonder aloud if they’ll feel some pressure to put Dorsett in a prominent role in this passing attack to justify the pick. He’ll be busy on kick returns, for sure, but Dorsett otherwise looks like the ultimate luxury pick, considering not only was there a lack of need at the position, but also because he’s almost the exact same player as Hilton (who is a little bigger). I’m not going to panic when it comes to Hilton because he was terrific last year, and we’ve watched the last two years as his chemistry with QB Andrew Luck has gotten better and better. Still, the Colts do actually want to run the ball more this year with Frank Gore, and with volume receiver Andre Johnson added, you do have to worry a little for Hilton, who is in the final year of his rookie deal with a carbon-copy rookie waiting in the wings. The Colts still haven’t figured out how to play with multiple footballs, either.

Justin Hunter (WR, Ten) – The only Titan wideout I’m interested in drafting this year is Kendall Wright – and I’m not as high on him now that the Titan coaches are going to attempt (and likely fail, based on history) to make Marcus Mariota fit into this offense. But if the drafting of Dorial Green-Beckham – yet another mistake by the Titans – doesn’t light a fire under Hunter in his third season, nothing will. Hunter isn’t in danger of being released, and I’d actually give him the edge over DGB to start on the outside alongside Wright, and Hunter is still bursting with talent. If Hunter is lighting it up this summer, I might warm up to him as a late-round flyer, but for now the best I can say about Hunter is that he’s not yet dead to me, despite the addition of Green-Beckham.

Cecil Shorts (WR, Hou) – Not that millions of fantasy players were on the edge of their seats draft weekend to see about Shorts’ role in 2015, but with the Texans trading up in the 3^rd round to take WR Jaelen Strong, you’d have to think they have designs on starting Strong opposite DeAndre Hopkins, with the versatile Shorts manning the slot. Strong, however, did slip in the draft, likely because he doesn’t run very well (despite good 40 time) and some feel he’s a guy who needs to be schemed to get open and that he’s not a consistent player. As for me, even though I was way too down on Hopkins last year, I’m not going to be particularly high on any Texan wideout. They’re still without a proven or consistent QB, and at some point, HC Bill O’Brien needs to recognize that the TE position, you know, exists.

Tyler Eifert (TE, Cin) – It’s certainly not time to panic with Eifert, but you’d have to think Cincy’s selection of Tyler Kroft with the 85^th pick of the draft had something to do with Eifert’s terrible first two seasons in Cincinnati. It also had something to do with Jermaine Gresham, who is free to sign with another team but is coming off back surgery and has likely played his last snap as a Bengal. Not only do Eifert and Croft share a first name, but they’re both also former WRs with good ball skills and soft hands to catch the ball away from their tall, athletic frames. Like Eifert, Kroft needs to get stronger and become a better blocker before he becomes a three-down TE, but the Bengals now have a viable alternative if Eifert continues to underwhelm and/or have injury issues.

Rob Housler (TE, Cle) – Tight end was a big need for the Browns, and they did use two later picks on the position – yet it doesn’t look like they added an option comparable to the departed Jordan Cameron. Sixth-round pick Malcolm Johnson is definitely interesting, but he’s more of aCharles Clay-like H-back type. Fellow 6^th rounder Randall Telfer is considered a blocking TE right now, so unless Johnson wows them with his versatility and carves out a role, it looks like the disappointing Housler will actually get a change to contribute meaningfully. I’m not counting on Housler at all, but he’ll be worth keeping an eye on, which we will.

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Monday, May 4, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #7 (Post-Draft Rookie Report)

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