Sunday, May 31, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #10 (2015 ADP Analysis)

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OFF-SEASON REPORT #10
Published Online, May 31, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #10: 2015 ADP Analysis - 5/30

ONLINE NOW:

Offensive ID: Bill Lazor/Dolphins - 5/28
TD Rates: 2015 WR Production - 5/27
Offensive ID: Lombardi/Caldwell/Lions - 5/26
2015 Season Projections - 5/20
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Rookie Report - 5/13
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 5/12
Depth Charts - 5/12
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
Post-Draft Stock Watch - 5/4
Post-Free Agency Stock Watch - 4/28
2015 Player Movement Tracker - 4/28
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

Off-Season Report #11: 2015 Draft Plan - This week
Off-Season Report #12: 2015 Values & Players to Target - Next week
2015 Player Profiles - Coming week of 6/15

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2015 ADP Analysis

by John Hansen, Publisher

Published online, 5/30/15

We’ve now been tracking and analyzing Average Draft Positions for over a decade, and in fact we were one of the first sites on the planet to do so in the early 2000s.

It was a handy guide back then, but in today’s ultra-competitive environment, understanding ADP is more important than ever because getting optimal value for your picks is paramount, as is preventing oneself from severely overpaying for a commodity or two.

This year’s ADP data will likely shift considerably - especially at the RB position – once training camps kick off and player roles become clear. We’ll be here to track and analyze it right up until the first week of September.

Note: We’re never going to include every single player at each position in this article. We focus on the more intriguing options and those who are tough to get a handle on in terms of when they will be drafted. If you view our ADP chart online or in excel, note the 12-team vs. Last column, which shows a player’s movement since our last update. Players listed in green have moved up (lower ADP) and players in red have moved down (higher ADP).

Also, note that we use PPR as our default setting for this analysis, and the file will show differences in the PPR ADP and non-PPR (green means higher and red means lower). We’ll always reference a player’s ADP in a 12-team league, but on the chart you can see ADP in 8, 10, 12, and 14-team leagues.

To download the ADP file in Excel, with average Auction $ Values and PPR/Non-PPR ADP, click here.

Quarterbacks

QB Movers and Shakers

Player ADP movement will be covered in our first update to this article in early July.

Current ADP Analysis:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

Andrew Luck (Ind, 18) – Despite averaging only 13.7 points per game Weeks Fifteen through Seventeen last year, Luck’s ADP is up over 30 spots from 2014 – and it’s probably because he averaged a whopping 30.9 points per game from Weeks One through Fourteen. Luck has a chance to come close to or even duplicate that rare 30+ points-per-game average, given the embarrassment of riches he has at the skill positions in 2015. He’s obviously not the value he was last year, but compared to Peyton Manning in 2014 (11 ADP), he’s at least out of the first round, offering a speck of value for fantasy’s clear top dog at the position.

Aaron Rodgers (GB, 20) – Rodgers was second in PP/G scoring at the position in 2014, so he lived up to his high ADP of 20 overall. This year, he’s dropped only 4 spots, so he’s almost exactly where he was in 2014. The main different between him and Luck is availability, since Luck almost seems indestructible, and Rodgers had had concussion issues and dealt with a calf issue last year. He’s older and smaller and flimsier than Luck, and a much bigger injury risk.

Russell Wilson (Sea, 50) – Wilson’s passing stats have been remarkably consistent his first three seasons, but his rushing production has been up-and-down. He was going off the board at 100 overall last year, but on the strength of his reliability, youth – and the addition of TE Jimmy Graham – fantasy owners have cut his ADP in half to 50. I understand the appeal, but that’s too rich for my blood, since I don’t want to pay a heavy premium for the 118/849/6 rushing line he put up last year. That was up from the 96/539/1 he put up in 2013, showing how unreliable his rushing TD and YPC average stats can be. The addition of Graham is nice, but this is still a QB who’s averaged only 417 attempts a game in his 3-year career, and last year he threw for fewer than 200 yards seven times, including four games in a row. With comparable QBs going 30-50 picks after him, Wilson isn’t a value and is likely overvalued.

Peyton Manning (Den, 60) and Drew Brees (NO, 65) – Fantasy owners are pulling way back from these two greybeards, which is just fine because any possible downside is now built into their ADP, meaning they have a chance to be values. With ADPs of 11 and 21 in 2014, they were certainly not values. Their games have fallen off, and both of their teams seem to be trending toward leaning more on their rushing attacks, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that their names are Manning and Brees. If they’re healthy, both should throw the ball enough to put up strong numbers, and top-5 finishes are hardly out of the question for both. I might prefer Brees at this point, especially with Manning losing his starting LT Ryan Clady yet again.

Ben Roethlisberger (Pit, 83) – Of all the QBs who’ve seen their ADP climb significantly in 2014, Roethlisberger looks like the best value. He was a steal last year at 121, and now he’s merely a rock-solid value in around the 7^th round of a 12-team league. At 33 years old, he’s no longer a young player, but his OL has improved dramatically, and with a great back in Le’Veon Bell behind him, Big Ben is no longer getting the crap beaten out of him on a weekly basis. With a receiving corps that is loaded with talent, and a defense that could really stink this year, the underrated Roethlisberger is one of the top QBs to target in the middle rounds if you want to hold off on drafting QB (but not until the bitter end).

Tom Brady (NE, 89) – Coming off a top-6 finish his final 12 games if the season with 29 TDs and only 7 INTs, I’d have to think concern about or knowledge of Brady’s suspension factored into his initial 2015 average draft position, since Brady’s ADP is down 21 spots from 2014. He has the potential to be a value if his suspension is reduced or lifted, of course, but there’s also some downside to drafting him over some other appealing options with lower ADPs (like Ryan Tannehill). Obviously his status needs to be followed all summer.

10 more QBs broken down online here.

Best QB Values:

1. Ryan Tannehill (101.3)

2. Ben Roethlisberger (83.3)

3. Eli Manning (112.4)

4. Drew Brees (65.9)

5. Matthew Stafford (89.4)

Super Value Alert:

These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise.

1. Sam Bradford (145.7)

2. Geno Smith (205)

3. Blake Bortles (176.8)

4. Carson Palmer (161.7)

5. Mark Sanchez (235)

Running Backs

RB Movers and Shakers

Player ADP movement will be covered in our first update to this article in early July.

Current ADP Analysis:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

Le’Veon Bell (Pit, 2.57) – Despite staring at a 3-game suspension, Bell’s inside the top-3 on most boards this year. If Bell’s suspension is reduced 1-2 games, he’ll likely settle as the consensus #1 overall pick because he was going first overall quite often in early spring drafts in 2015, even with the 3-game suspension in place. If Bell misses three games, that’s obviously not good, but those who draft him won’t be taking a zero in one RB spot while he’s out, and when Bell returns, he’s a major impact player, so he’s still appealing. He’s been very contrite about the incident this off-season and has said all the right things, so I’d guess he has a better than 50/50 chance to get at least one game removed via the appeal that he’s filed and is still pending.

Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles (GB/5.12, KC/5.67) – It’s absolutely no surprise these two are within the top-5 on most boards, and they’ll likely stay there all year, barring a negative development. Lacy’s gotten off to a slow start in both of his seasons and has had concussion issues, whereas Charles’ touches were considerably lower in 2014 (329 in 2013 and 245 in 2015, both 15 games) as the club (wisely) used him judiciously. Other than those mild concerns, these guys are fine picks in the very early stages of 2015 drafts.

Matt Forte (Chi, 11.1) – It pains me to say it, but with Marc Trestman gone and some struggles running the ball last year with a five-year low 3.9 YPC, I’m in I’d-rather-bail-a-year-too-early-than-too-late mode with Forte this year. Forte looks like the same guy by the eyeball test, but he’ll be 30 this year and has handled over 3100 touches over the last 11 years in college and the pros. That’s a ton of work over a long period of time, so I don’t think he should be going in the first round of a typical 12-team league.

Adrian Peterson (Min, 12.7) – I’ve already taken “AAP,” which stands for “Angry Adrian Peterson,” first overall in a non-PPR mock draft for a print magazine this year, but admittedly having the first pick in a non-PPR is nightmarish this year – and it was only an early May mock draft. At 12.7, Peterson actually stands out as a nice value, but as the season draws closer and he eventually reports to the team, which he will, Peterson should settle in as a top-5 pick. He’s crossed into his 30s this year, but I’ll take my chances on an all-time great playing in what should be an above-average offense with more motivation than usual and essentially a full year off from football to rest his body. That is, assuming AP and the Vikings can come to a resolution and Peterson reports to training camp ready to rock and roll.

LeSean McCoy (Buf, 12.8) – I’ll likely pass on McCoy this year, and it’s not just because he’s a bad tipper. McCoy’s still only 27 (July), but over the last five seasons he has the most touches in the NFL, and his 626 carries over the past two seasons also led the league. McCoy is poised to handle a large workload this year, and OC Greg Roman is creative in the running game, but McCoy was less effective in 2014, and I view it as a sign of trouble. That trouble could carry over into Buffalo because the Bill OL did a terrible job in creating space for its RBs in 2014, and McCoy is a space runner who started bouncing runs and dancing when he didn’t have room to navigate last year in Philly. And is he going to be the main goal line and 3^rd down back? Those are two key questions for McCoy.

Marshawn Lynch (Sea, 13.7) – Each year Lynch proves any of his remaining skeptics wrong, but each year he gets a little older and has added a significant number of hits to his massive career total, so if the fantasy masses are keeping him out of the first round, I can’t call that an egregious error.

DeMarco Murray (Phi, 14) – Believe it or not, Murray’s ADP is actually unchanged from last year, when he was the 16^th overall pick in the draft. Of course, if we all knew he would play all 16 games and perform as he did, he would have been the #1 overall pick in 2014, so his stock has taken a hit moving on to Philadelphia. It’s questionable if he’s worth a No. 1 pick in a 12-team league or smaller, but I’m more than fine with Murray any point after that. It’s going to be a different running game for him to adjust to, but the Philly OL should be above-average at least and it’s still overall a good situation for a RB.

Jeremy Hill (Cin, 20) – In this day and age, fantasy owners have to accept that even talented young backs might have to share the ball, and that applies to Hill. I’d prefer to draft him a few picks later, like early in the 3^rd round, and I’d be inclined to take a very high-end WR over Hill at 20 overall. But if I didn’t take a RB in the first round, I’d be okay using a pick as high as 20 overall on a 22-year-old RB who averaged 5.1 yards a carry and 8.0 yards a catch on a team that was 4^th in percentage of rushing plays in 2014.

Arian Foster (Hou, 21.9) – Foster did miss three games in 2014, but considering he was 4^th in PPR scoring with a very healthy 21.4 PP/G, you’d think his ADP would be a little higher. Certainly, fantasy owners understand that Foster’s handled over 1500 touches the last five seasons and that his body could break down at any point. I’ll probably pass on him altogether because I don’t have a lot of faith in his ability to be active on Sundays, but I felt the same way last year and he was a major difference-maker behind a pretty good OL in Houston. Drafting Foster is just a more dangerous roll of the dice than I’d like to take.

C.J. Anderson (Den, 22) – Anderson’s a tougher guy to pin down ADP-wise because he was all over the map in early drafts we observed. Yet he was going in the first round more often than not, so if he slips to the low-20s, that’s impossible to pass up. The Bronco OL is more unsettled and isn’t as strong as it used to be, and that was even before they lost LT Ryan Clady to an ACL in late May. Gary Kubiak’s running game is tried and tested, at least, and is a major staple to his offense, and their schedule looks very good this year against the run on paper. Montee Ball does lurk and will compete with Anderson for touches, but Anderson looked significantly better in 2014 and has more lateral agility and speed than Ball, which makes him a better back. The Clady loss is big, but given it, Kubiak might be even more inclined to run the ball to protect Peyton, who lost his veteran blindside defender.

25 more RBs broken down online here.

Best RB Values:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

1. Justin Forsett (Bal, 40.2)

2. Andre Ellington (Ari, 48.2)

3. Duke Johnson (Cle, 90.8)

4. Charles Simms (TB, 112)

5. David Cobb (Ten, 117)

Super Value Alert:

These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise

1. Joseph Randle (Dal, 129.6)

2. Chris Ivory (NYJ, 125)

3. Danny Woodhead (SD, 159)

4. Fred Jackson (Buf, 167)

5. Dan Herron (Ind, 171)

Wide Receivers

WR Movers and Shakers

Player ADP movement will be covered in our first update to this article in early July.

Current ADP Analysis:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

Antonio Brown (Pit, 4.6) – He was the #1 non-QB in scoring last year, and he was actually bested by only four QBs in total scoring in a PPR, soAntonio Brown moves up 15 spots from last year to settle into a top-5 ADP. Given his reliability and incredible production, I’d take him No. 1 overall in a PPR.

Odell Beckham (NYG, 6) – Last August he was almost completely off the radar, given his nagging hamstring injury, so ODB’s ADP is up an amazing 168 spots this year. That just goes to show how quickly things change in the fantasy world, as Beckham went from undrafted in most leagues to a top-6 pick in less than a year. From Week Nine on, Beckham was the #1 scorer at any position in a PPR system, posting a sickening 81/1199/9 in just nine games, with a league-leading 113 targets. That’s a great season for almost any other WR, so while his torrid nine-game stretch will be impossible to duplicate, ODB should definitely be a top-10 pick in a PPR.

Calvin Johnson (Det, 15) – He’s played all 16 games in only two of his last six seasons, and he’ll be 30 in September, which helps explains how you might actually have the ability to draft Calvin in the second round in 2015. I’m skeptical that he’ll actually fall out of the first round come August, but right now, Calvin’s ADP is down 10 spots from 2014, which places him in the 2^nd round of a 12-team league.

Mike Evans (TB, 23) – Evans is one of the many rookies who proved in 2014 that it’s wise to be aggressive on first-year players, since his ADP is up 80 spots from last year, placing him right at the end of the 2^nd round in a 12-team PPR league. Considering his great size, which is an attribute that allowed him to excel as a rookie despite his limited route running, that’s a fair price for a talent whose QB situation got better with the drafting ofJameis Winston.

TY Hilton (Ind, 26) – This one could need some data correction, since there’s likely ADP data from before the NFL draft factoring into his high ADP, which is up 28 spots from last year. Not that I expect rookie Phillip Dorsett to severely cut into Hilton’s targets, but Dorsett is a comparable player and a threat, so I’d be more comfortable taking Hilton 20-25 picks later.

DeAndre Hopkins (Hou, 29.6) – I guess I’m a Hopkins hater because I wasn’t high on him last year (I was incorrect), and there’s no way I’m going to take him in the top-30. His breakout 2014 season was impressive and it’s prompted his ADP to rise 80 spots, but Hopkins will have more pressure on him this year with Andre Johnson, and his QB situation is less-than-ideal, and one could easily argue that it’s worse this year with Ryan Fitzpatrick gone.

Emmanuel Sanders (Den, 31.5) – I was really impressed with how quickly Sanders got on the same page with Peyton Manning last year, which was evidenced by his strong 71.6% catch rate. However, even Sanders himself admitted in late May that he’s going to be hard-pressed to duplicate his gaudy ’14 numbers. Denver will be more run-oriented with Gary Kubiak taking over, and they’d like to see Cody Latimer’s role grow, so Sanders could even lose a few snaps this year. He was one of only four WRs to exceed 100 catches, but he’s not approaching triple digits this year, so his 31 ADP is a tad high.

Kelvin Benjamin (Car, 31.8) – Showing what a good value he was as a rookie last year, Benjamin’s ADP is up 77 spots, making him a 3^rd-round pick in a 12-team PPR league. He was able to produce because of his great size and wingspan, but he was also very inefficient, catching only 50.7% of his passes. He can improve his route running and consistency this year, but Cam Newton will always be an erratic passer, and they did add another huge receiver with a large catch radius in Devin Funchess, so Benjamin may not get the 9 targets a game he received last year. I’d much rather get him in the 4^th than the 3^rd.

Brandin Cooks (NO, 33) – I loved Cooks last year, and while he was frustratingly inconsistent, he played exceptionally well overall and posted a strong 76.8 catch rate. He won’t likely duplicate that high rate in 2015, since he’ll be used more down the field, but he’s going to get as many targets as he can handle this year, so I like him a lot as a 3^rd-round pick in a PPR league. The fantasy masses are all over his huge role this year, so his ADP is up 48 spots, despite his season-ending thumb injury, so he’s a guy fantasy players are going to have to be proactive about acquiring.

Jordan Matthews (Phi, 34) – Matthews is yet another example of how rookies can present great values in fantasy drafts, as his ADP is up a whopping 99 spots. But is he worth a 3^rd-round pick in a PPR? That seems a little high to me. He ran over 90% of his routes from the slot last year, and he’ll likely stick there. But a 65.7% catch rate for a slot receiver isn’t particularly good, and we have to remember that Matthews exploded onto the fantasy scene withMark Sanchez at the helm, and Sanchez will be only the backup if Sam Bradford is healthy. Sanchez was far less willing to challenge defenses on the perimeter and down the field than was Nick Foles, as Sanchez preferred to work the middle of the field. In Sanchez’s eight starts, Matthews posted 35/559/5 receiving on 50 targets (16.0 YPC), and averaged 15.1 FPG, #19 among all WRs (Jeremy Maclin was #32 over the same span). By comparison, Matthews was the #52 PPR WR in Foles’ starts, with Maclin at #3. Bradford should be an upgrade for Matthews from Foles, but Bradford is also a guy who’ll look down the field more than Sanchez. That said, I think Matthews is slightly overvalued with a 34 ADP.

Sammy Watkins (Buf, 42) – As a general rule, I like to target any elite talent coming off a disappointing campaign, and Watkins fits the bill this year, so I’m intrigued. Injuries were a problem for the smaller Watkins, but his biggest issue was QB play, as evidenced by his poor 51.2% catch rate. That lame rate shows there’s room for improvement, but it’s hard to say his QB situation is significantly improved this year, plus Rex Ryan and the Bills will look to win with defense and their running game. They also added another viable target in Percy Harvin, so it’s hard to call Watkins a great pick in the 4^th round of a 12-team PPR league. I do think he’s a viable pick that early, though, and if he slips to the 5^th round or beyond, then he becomes a value.

Golden Tate (Det, 49.8) – Tate’s ADP is up 34 spots from last year, which is fair considering the strong season he had. Tate posted a solid 69.2% catch rate last year, and he was consistent with that rate all year. But he averaged only 13 yards a catch, which is an okay number but nothing overwhelming. That means he was more of a function of volume, ranking 8^th in the NFL with 143 targets. But if Calvin Johnson is healthy and TE Eric Ebron can step up, I don’t see Tate getting quite as many looks, so I don’t think I’d take him in the 5^th round, and I know I won’t take him in the 4^th. I see Tate as slightly overvalued, but his ADP is hardly outlandish.

Michael Floyd (Ari, 69) – Floyd was a swing-and-a-miss for yours truly in 2014, and while he flashed for sure at times, the lesson learned from last year is that he’s more one-trick pony than he is complete receiver. Floyd finished with 47 catches on 98 targets (a miserable 48.0% catch rate) for 841 yards (17.9 YPC) and 6 TDs, ranking him 51^st among fantasy WRs with 10.5 FPG. He did lead the team in TD catches and his 17.9 YPC put him behind only DeSean Jackson, but he also had eight games with 2 or fewer catches. Floyd seemed to regress as a receiver, as he could do damage only as a deep threat, but it didn’t help that the Cardinals went through four different QBs. Carson Palmer is on track to be ready for the season, but he’s hard to count on for all 16 games, which adds to Floyd’s downside, plus second-year wideout John Brown is coming on strong and should challenge for even more snaps and targets this year. It’s nice that Floyd’s more affordable this year, but he’s dropped only 20 spots from his 2014 ADP, and I don’t think I’d take him in the 6^th round, so he’ll have to drop further for me to consider him.

Brandon Marshall (NYJ, 54.4) – Marshall is completely healthy heading into 2015, and he seems energized by his new environment in New York, stating in late May that he’s “better now than he ever was.” His 59.2% catch rate and 11.8 YPC average do not reflect a player who is peaking, but I do think Marshall is still playing at a very high level and will be a critical receiver for the Jets. His ADP has taken an expected hit, down 38 spots from 2014, but my sense is you can get him a little later than that. Marshall should be a 6^th- or 7^th-round pick in a 12-team PPR.

Keenan Allen (SD, 52.4) – We had only his impressive rookie season to go off, but we oversold Allen in 2014. The question now is: will a 20 spot drop in ADP by enough to make him palatable? Since they didn’t really add a receiver of note other than Stevie Johnson, who in many ways is just a replacement for Eddie Royal, I’d say that it is. Allen may not be a brilliant 5^th-round pick, but there’s some upside from that spot because he’s still the No. 1 wideout in a good offense and with a strong QB. Allen is a very good receiver who just isn’t elite, and his ADP has been corrected to account for that.

Jeremy Maclin (KC, 56) – Maclin’s actually up 8 spots from his 2014 ADP, which goes to show what a value he was last year. His numerous injury scares in the preseason likely factored into his 2014 ADP, but the bigger concern this year is Alex Smith. Maclin played for Andy Reid in Philly, of course, so the pair should work well together in KC. The concern, though, is that Smith is more Mark Sanchez than he is Nick Foles. In the eight games Foles started, Maclin averaged 21.8 FPG, #3 among all WRs, and 17.4 YPC. He didn’t exhibit nearly as much upside with Sanchez, despite Sanchez’s first pass of the year being a long bomb to Maclin. Otherwise, the downfield juice between the two just didn’t exist the way it did with Foles. In Sanchez’s 8 starts, Maclin slipped to 13.1 FPG (#32 among WRs), and just 13.2 YPC. Most understand the potential dropoff in production in KC, where they didn’t throw a single TD pass to a WR last year, but a 5^th-round pick is a bit rich for Maclin, who also does bring injury baggage to the table.

20 more WRs broken down online here.

Best WR Values:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

1. Brandon LaFell (NE, 96)

2. Nelson Agholor (Phi, 109)

3. Mike Wallace (Min, 82)

4. Brandin Cooks (NO, 36)

5. Amari Cooper (Oak, 62)

Super Value Alert:

These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise.

1. Marques Colston (NO, 150)

2. Anquan Boldin (SF, 123)

3. Pierre Garcon (Was, 126)

4. Terrance Williams (Dal, 141)

5. Brian Quick (Stl, 129)

Tight Ends

TE Movers and Shakers

Player ADP movement will be covered in our first update to this article in early July.

Current ADP Analysis:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

Rob Gronkowski (NE, 10) – I have more questions than usual about the top RBs this year, so while I’ll always be concerned about his availability, I have absolutely no problem with Gronkowski being drafted in the first round in 2015. There are plenty of intriguing TEs this year, but breakouts are few and far between at the position, which remains top-heavy. One can get a substantial advantage at the position by owning Gronk and a major impact player.

Jimmy Graham (Sea, 26.9) – We all knew Graham’s ADP would drop, but is a 17-pick decrease enough? He’s at least out of the first two rounds, and in the 3^rd round he could stand out as the best impact player available, at which point he’d definitely be viable. As we know this is a run-heavy offense, as Russell Wilson has averaged only 417 pass attempts a year in his three seasons. But one element that could work in Graham’s favor in Seattle is his snap count, which was maddeningly low at times in New Orleans. If the Seahawks view Graham as essentially a flexed-out wide receiver, that could help offset him going from a pass-happy offense to a run-happy one. In one expert mock draft I did for a print magazine in May, Graham actually went 10^th overall, so if he’s available in the 3^rd round I’d have to say he’s a strong pick.

Travis Kelce (KC, 50) – I always want the best of both worlds when it comes to a fantasy draft in that I want stud players, but I also want value. It’s impossible to get value for stud Rob Gronkowski, and probably also Jimmy Graham, which is why Kelce stands out this year. Kelce recently told my friend Herbie Teope of ChiefsDigest.com that he wasn’t even 100% last year coming off his microfracture surgery, which makes sense because he was limited until training camp kicked off but is a scary fact for opposing defenses. Kelce still passed the eyeball test with flying colors, and he was decisive and explosive with the ball in his hands after the catch. With an outstanding 77% catch rate and 9.91 yard-per-target average, Kelce caught just about everything thrown his way, and he was dynamic after the catch and down the field. His ADP has him as a borderline 4^th/5^th round pick, and right around 50 overall the high-end impact positional players are almost all gone, making him stand out. Getting him in the 5^th would be a coup, but I’ve already been willing to use a 4^th round pick on this stud.

Julius Thomas (Jac, 68) – I loved Thomas last year, and for a good portion of the season he was money – until he came crashing down to Earth due mainly to a serious ankle injury. The question with Thomas is how much of his production in Denver was a function of playing in a great offense and with Peyton Manning, and we’re about to find out. But with an ADP of only 68, fantasy owners have essentially already answered the question, and there appears to be skepticism that Thomas can produce strong numbers in Jacksonville. I share in that pessimism, and I don’t think he’ll go down as a brilliant 6^th-round pick in a 12-team PPR league. To deliver on that ADP, he’ll probably have to score 7-8 TDs, and Thomas himself has only 4 fewer TDs than the Jaguars have passed for as a team the last two seasons (24 TD passes versus 22 TD catches for Thomas).

Zach Ertz (Phi, 91.9) – Ertz’ ADP is actually up about 10 spots from 2014 – when he seriously disappointed his owners with a very uneven season. Ertz is still a work in progress, but the biggest issue for him is that Chip Kelly doesn’t like to feature 1-2 guys in the passing game, plus he lovesBrent Celek as a blocker. Ertz is a high-end talent who’s still ascending and in a good offense, but I’d probably pass on him at this ADP.

15 more TEs broken down online here.

Best TE Values:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

1. Antonio Gates (SD, 115)

2. Travis Kelce (KC, 50)

3. Jordan Cameron (Mia, 92.4)

Super Value Alert:

These players aren’t in our ADP top-120, but they have a chance to surprise.

1. Jason Witten (Dal, 131)

2. Kyle Rudolph (147)

3. Larry Donnell (NYG, 160)

4. Vernon Davis (SF, 177)

5. Richard Rodgers (GB, 211)

Team Defenses

Current ADP Analysis:

These are the players whose Average Draft Positions intrigue us most in 2015.

Seattle Seahawks (Sea, 123) – They are down 27 spots from 2014, but despite being the consensus #1 fantasy defense heading into 2014 only to finish only 18^thin PP/G in our site default scoring system (not counting points allowed), Seattle is back as the top D on the board, per our ADP. This is obviously still a very good defense that should excel in terms of points and yards allowed, but they’ve lost some key players and there’s no way I’m using an 11^th round pick in a 12-team league on them.

Buffalo Bills (Buf, 135) – The Bills were one of the most consistent fantasy defenses last year, and they’re still loaded on that side of the ball and are now coached by Rex Ryan, so there’s reason for optimism. They’re the second DT off the board, which I can’t argue with after seeing them lead the league with 52 sacks and finishing 6^thwith 19 INTs and scoring 4 TDs. Their scoring was well rounded and not dependent on one particular thing like TDs.

St. Louis Rams (Stl, 153.8) – For as disappointing as our preseason #1 DT was in 2014, they actually finished 6^th in points-per-game and had some dominant performances, especially from Week Twelve through Week Fourteen, when they posted 20 sacks, 5 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries, and a TD. This defense remains basically unchanged from 2014, with the exception of their addition of former #1 pick Nick Fairley, who makes their front even more impressive. Perhaps they’ll be more consistent in their second year under aggressive DC Gregg Williams.

3 more DTs broken down online here.

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Saturday, May 23, 2015

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #9 (2015 SOS Analysis)

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OFF-SEASON REPORT #9
Published Online, May 22, 2015
Copyright © 1995-2015
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #9: 2015 SOS Analysis - 5/22

ONLINE NOW:

2015 Season Projections - 5/20
Fantasy PKs and the XPT rule - 5/20
2015 Coaching Changes - 5/14
Post-Draft Rookie Report - 5/13
Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 5/12
Depth Charts - 5/12
Post-Draft Podcast - 5/7
Post-Draft Stock Watch - 5/4
Post-Free Agency Stock Watch - 4/28
2015 Player Movement Tracker - 4/28
2015 Remaining Free Agents Tracker - 4/28
2015 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/24
Franchise Focus Podcasts: All 32 Teams - 4/24
NFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/20
Wide Receiver Height and Consistency - 4/20
Offensive ID: Kyle Shanahan/Falcons - 4/16
AFC IDP Post-Free Agency Roundup - 4/13
Offensive Identities in 2014 - 4/13
Visualizing Identity - 4/10
Coaching Identity: A Rough Visual Guide - 4/9
Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/8
2014's Distance Scoring Analysis - 4/6
2014's 300/100-Yard Bonus Analysis - 4/2
Wide Receiver TD Spikes - 3/31
Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
Post-Free Agency Podcast - 3/26
PPR RB Dynasty Value - 3/26
Running QBs and Their Targets - 3/20
Back to Regression - 3/12
Players to Trade/Trade For: Keepers - 3/4
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: RBs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: WRs - 3/2
2014 Catch Rate & YPT Analysis: TEs - 3/2
2015 Combine Recap - 2/23
2015 Combine Preview - 2/17
SOS Adjusted WR PPR Scores 2014 - 2/16
2015 Coaching Changes - 2/11
SOS Adjusted RB PPR Scores 2014 - 2/4
2014's Lessons Learned - 2/2
2014 Review/2015 Previews - 2/2

UP NEXT:

Off-Season Report #10: 2015 ADP Analysis - Next week

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2015 SOS Analysis

by John Hansen, Publisher

Published online, 5/22/15

The first thing I do each year with strength of schedule analysis is to review the previous season’s work to see if SOS really mattered. Analyzing strength of schedule is clearly not as viable as it used to be, in large part because there’s a lot more turnover with players and coaches than there was a decade ago, and since there are fewer “shutdown” and “get-well” defenses to greatly affect strength of schedule.

But when I’m analyzing a player for an upcoming season, I consider myriad factors. There are a few critical elements I place a lot of emphasis on, like talent and ability, and then there are some less-important components that still merit being factored into the equation, and that’s where I am these days when it comes to SOS: It’s just one of the 7-8 factors I consider, and I don’t put as much weight on it as I do for the more important factors such as talent, supporting cast, durability, system/identity, etc. SOS, for example, cannot account for a player like Le’Veon Bell improving so much - and playing at a lighter weight - from his first to his second year, so the 2014 analysis, which was concerned about his SOS, didn’t apply there.

As I mention every year, I’m not naïve enough to think that one can analyze strength of schedule simply using last year’s W-L records or even the points allowed that each defense gave up to each position the year before. We actually already have that in the form of our SOS Tool, which ranks all 32 teams for each position based on the numbers their 16 opponents gave up in 2014. That’s worth a look, but I project SOS by assigning a number grade for each defense against the run and the pass, based on the current personnel, and then I compared the average grade of each team’s 16 opponents and rank them from easiest to hardest against the run and the pass.

Some years are better than others, and sometimes no matter how good a schedule a player might have, he’s still a lost cause (like Toby Gerhart in 2014). Before I get into this year’s schedule analysis, here’s a quick overview of some of the successes from last year’s article:

Pounded home the ease of the Texans schedule against the run for Arian Foster.
Pointed out that Denver’s schedule was rough against the run early in the season – and then got very easy.
Showed optimism for Tom Brady and their passing game based on their matchups.
Pumped up Aaron Rodgers’ schedule against the pass.
Absolutely loved Tony Romo’s schedule after the first month or so of the season.
Covered the fact that Matt Forte’s schedule against the run was a lot tougher than the year before.
Gave a positive spin on the Giant passing game.
Virtually guaranteed a top-12 season for Jay Cutler based on schedule, and as ugly as it got, he was 12^th in total QB scoring in our default system, despite missing a game.
Pointed out that Miami’s schedule against the pass looked like good news for Ryan Tannehill.
Expressed encouragement over Andrew Luck’s schedule.
Showed concern about Eddie Lacy’s schedule to open the season.
Really downplayed the Falcon RBs due to a brutal schedule.
Warned of Zac Stacy’s nasty schedule.
Expressed concern about the Bucs’ schedule against the run.
Predicted the Cardinals would be successful throwing the ball early in the season based on matchups.

Note: To view the charts that show all the grades we've given each defense against the run and the pass, and the 2015 SOS rankings for the run and the passs, check out this article online here

2015 Rushing SOS Analysis

Looking Good:

Jonathan Stewart (Car) – Stewart’s an injury risk no matter what, but his schedule stacks up as the easiest in the league, per our projected SOS. Stewart was a top-12 back the final seven games of the season, and he’ll have some cushy matchups in the second half of the season against NO, Ind, Dal, NO, Atl, and Atl with only two matchups that look particularly tough earlier in the season (Hou and Sea). If he’s still in one piece, his playoff schedule is about as good as it gets against NO, Atl, NYG, and Atl.

C.J. Anderson (Den) – Anderson’s a really intriguing pick this year. It’s not easy to justify a first-round pick for him, yet that might be what it takes to land him. That’s a steep price for a guy who’s produced for only about a half of a season, but his cushy schedule does help. We have Denver as owning the 2^nd-easiest schedule against the run, helped by matchups against Min, Oak, Cle, Ind, and Oak. And his schedule for the fantasy playoff weeks isn’t bad at all against SD, Oak, Pit, and Cin.

Joquie Bell/Ameer Abdullah (Det) – The schedule shouldn’t factor into how much they play the rookie Abdullah, but there are some nice matchups for him if he’s getting the ball, and a soft schedule could help Bell stave him off. They rank as the 4^th-best against the run, and the schedule is helped by four matchups against Min and Chi, two teams that we’re thinking will be below-average against the run (although the Vikings could be better than that if they’re healthy at DT). They also have Oak and NO, giving them six matchups that we view as favorable. The schedule is also pretty decent for the playoff Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen against GB, Stl, NO, and SF.

Mark Ingram/C.J. Spiller (NO) – Playing in the weaker NFC South, the Saints usually have a solid schedule, and they do again this year, especially since they’re also playing the weaker AFC South. Against the run, their schedule ranks as the 8^th-best, and there’s only one tougher matchup (Hou) and several that looks good on paper (Dal, Atl, Ind, Atl). The Saints want to run the ball more or at least stay consistent with the run as they did in 2014, and the schedule should help that cause. For the fantasy playoffs, the schedule looks good against Car, TB, Det, and Jac Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen.

Tevin Coleman/Devonta Freeman (Atl) – These guys will battle it out for touches, and it could be an RBBC all year. Their schedule against the run doesn’t look easy on paper, but there’s really not a scary matchup against the run all year other than Houston, and they have five matchups against the run that we view as favorable (including NO in Week Seventeen). Assuming the Panther defense is as strong up front as it has been the last two years (when not depleted by injuries), their playoff schedule is up-and-down against TB, Car, Jac and Car Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen.

Charles Sims/Doug Martin/Bobby Rainey (TB) – Anything can happen with these three in this backfield, but we know that a) Sims wasn’t right all year with his ankle and b) they’d like to see him emerge as the lead back. All of these guys could use some help from the schedule, and in 2015 they do get some. They rank as the 3^rd-best schedule against the run, which can’t hurt a guy like Sims’ chances of emerging. The Bucs have two tough matchups in Hou and Stl, but also a whopping seven matchups that look very good on paper (NO, Atl, Dal, Ind, Atl, NO, and Chi). Their schedule looks particularly good in the second half of the season, perhaps as good as it gets in the NFL against the run in 2015. For the playoff Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen, their schedule is very good, other than Stl with them playing against Atl, NO, Stl, and Chi.

Other RBs with good-looking schedules in 2015: Adrian Peterson, Melvin Gordon

Looking Not-So-Good:

LeGarrette Blount (NE) – His schedule ranks as the hardest in the league by our projected SOS, so that’s not good news for a backfield that gives us headaches regardless of the matchups. The low ranking is obviously due to their division, and their six matchups against Buf, NYJ, and Mia are all tough. They also have Hou on the schedule, giving them seven matchups against the run that we view as difficult. For the fantasy playoff weeks, Blount’s schedule leans toward the negative against Phi, Hou, Ten, and NYJ.

Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard (Cin) – The SOS analysis is not good for the Bengals, who check in as the 5^th-hardest schedule against both the run and the pass. Against the run, we see at least six top run defenses on their schedule in Bal, Sea, Buf, Hou, Stl, Den, and Bal. It’s still not something I’d panic about with Hill, but it’s worth noting if you’re having a tough call in a draft with Hill and another high-end option. At least his Week Thirteen through Sixteen schedule could be a lot worse against Cle, Pit, SF, and Den.

LeSean McCoy (Buf) – The Bills have those four games against the Jets and Dolphins, and their schedule against the run suffers because of it. Their schedule against the run ranks as the 4^th-hardest, according to my projections, with those four games, plus a tougher contest against the Texans, who now have DT Vince Wilfork. That’s not great news for McCoy, who’s OL was one of the five worst in the league blocking for the run in 2014. His schedule Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen is about average against Hou, Phi, Was, and Dal, at least.

Duke Johnson/Isaiah Crowell/Terrance West (Cle) – It’s not a good year for the NFC North schedule-wise, since they match up with the NFC West this year, and the Brown RBs come in with the 2^nd-hardest schedule against the run. We’re likely looking at a RBBC here, at least early in the season, and the schedule for their RBs has some rough spots against NYJ, Bal, De, Stl, Bal, and Sea as well as some other potentially-challenging matchups. It’s not terrible for the fantasy playoff Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen, but it’s not great against Cin, Bal, Sea, and KC.

Lamar Miller/Jay Ajayi (Mia) – This schedule checks in as the 3^rd-hardest against the run, which isn’t the end of the world for these guys, but it’s not a positive factor. The problem, of course, is that they have to face off against NYJ and Buf two times each, and they also have Bal and Hou on the schedule, giving them six tough matchups on paper, with only two favorable ones (Dal and Ind). At least their schedule Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen isn’t bad against Bal, NYG, SD, and Ind.

Other RBs with not-so-good-looking schedules in 2015: Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon, and Jet RBs

2015 Passing SOS Analysis

Note: It’s more difficult to project SOS against the pass, since there are more factors to consider on both sides of the ball when it comes to passing, but it’s still worth investigating.

Looking Good:

Matt Ryan (Atl) – Ryan’s perennially productive yet underrated, and this year we see seven favorable matchups (Dal, Was, NO, Ten, SF, Jac, and NO), which stacks his schedule up as one of the 2-3 best in the league this year. His playoff schedule will depend greatly on the strength of the Panther defense, since they play them twice from Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen.

Sam Bradford/Mark Sanchez (Phi) – Their schedule doesn’t look amazing, but it does rank as the best against the pass this year, per our projections. We see only one problematic matchup (NYJ) and several (Dal, Dal, Mia, TB, NE) that look good heading into the season. This could help a new QB in Bradford and their revamped receiving corps that lost its top target and will look to replace him with rookie Nelson Agholor. Their playoff schedule Weeks 13-16 is also pretty decent against NE, Buf, Ari, and Was.

Geno Smith (NYJ) – I wasn’t buying any of the Jet hype last year and there actually was some due to the Michael Vick and Chris Johnsonadditions. But this year I’m actually very intrigued by Geno with an upgraded receiving corps and with QB-friendly OC Chan Gailey. Geno will run and Chan is fine with that, so he has the potential to average 20 points a game in 2015, which could place him in the top-20 at his position. And despite playing in a tough division, we have their schedule as the 3^rd-easiest against the pass. They might catch a break if Miami’s shaky secondary is vulnerable, and New England’s should be weakened considerably with all their losses at CB. We’re showing zero matchups against a top pass defense and some nice games against teams like NE, Oak, Jac, NYG, Ten, Dal, and NE. Geno’s the anointed starter and they have been very clear that he’s the guy, so he has a real chance to put up career-best numbers under Gailey. Their playoff schedule is also very good against NYG, Ten, Dal, and NE.

Eli Manning (NYG) – His just lost his starting LT Will Beatty for a couple of months of the season, which is a buzz kill, but at least Manning once again has a really nice schedule. His schedule ranks as the 4^th-easiest, and they have only one scary matchup (NYJ) and some easier ones against Dal, SF, Dal, TB, NE, and maybe Mia, who are thin this year at CB. There are also a number of medium matchups (Atl, Was, Was, NO) that could wind up being very good. His schedule Weeks 13-16 isn’t that great against NYJ, Mia, Car, and Min, but it’s not terrible. Manning was helped by the schedule last year, and he should be again this year.

Peyton Manning (Den) – Manning at this point could actually use some help from the schedule, and he gets some in 2015. We have them with the 7^th-easiest schedule against the pass this year, and matchups against Oak, Chi, NE, Oak, and Pit look great on paper, plus we don’t see a single tough matchup on the schedule for them this year.

Andrew Luck (Ind) – Matchups against NYJ and Buf are tough, but Luck also gets Ten, Jac, NE, NO, Atl, TB, Pit, Jac, Mia, and Ten. Indy’s schedule against the pass ranks as the 12^th-best according to our projections, but it looks particularly good in the second half of the season, and it’s looking solid Weeks 13-16 against Pit, Jac, Hou, and Mia.

Drew Brees (NO) – Brees and the Saint passing game could use a little outside help at this point, and they get some from a schedule that has zero matchups against defenses that we view as being tough against the pass, plus they have four matchups (TB, Dal, Ten, TB) that we view as favorable. Brees’ schedule Weeks 13-16 is also very good against Car, TB, Det, and Jac.

Russell Wilson (Sea) – He has a great new toy in Jimmy Graham, and Wilson’s schedule ranks as the 5^th-best this year against the pass. Wilson obviously gets the Rams twice, but that’s it for the tough matchups, and he has some nicer ones in Chi, SF, Dal, SF, and Pit, so the schedule looks to be his friend this year. Wilson’s schedule is also pretty decent Weeks 13-16 against Min, Bal, Cle, and Stl.

Other QBs with good-looking schedules in 2015: Joe Flacco, Matt Cassel/EJ Manuel, Aaron Rodgers, Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallet, Blake Bortles, and Robert Griffin III

Looking Not-So-Good:

Colin Kaepernick (SF) – Kaepernick could use some help from the schedule, but he really doesn’t get much in 2015. His schedule is downright nasty against the pass, thanks in large part to playing Sea and Stl twice. The good news is that’s the extent of their bad matchups, but Kaepernick and the 49ers have only two matchups that we view as being good (Pit and Chi), and the Niners rank as having the toughest-schedule against the pass.

Carson Palmer (Ari) – The Cardinal schedule is usually bad on paper based on their division, and that’s the case again this year. Their ranking is not good (2^nd-hardest), but they do have five matchups (Chi, SF, Det, Pit, and SF) that we view as favorable. The schedule for Palmer and the passing game is definitely easier earlier in the season, which could come in handy as he comes back from his ACL. But it looks fairly tough in the second half of the season against Sea, Cin, SF, Sea, Cin, SF, Stl, Min, Phi, GB, and Sea.

Other QBs with not-so-good-looking schedules in 2015: Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler

1^st-Half Nuggets

Rushing - Looking Good:

Viking RB Adrian Peterson doesn’t have a single tough matchup the first eight weeks of the season, with matchups against SF, Det, SD, Den, KC, Det, and Chi.

Things look very good early on for the Saint running game and Mark Ingram/C.J. Spiller, as they open with Ari, TB, Car, Dal, Phi, Atl, Ind, and the NYG. There’s not a great run defense to be found in that first half schedule.

The Giants do get Buf early on, but overall the schedule looks very good for their running game against Dal, Atl, Was, Buf, SF, Phi, Dal, and N). This could help Rashad Jennings get off to a nice start – and then he’ll probably have an injury problem.

Other than a game against the Jets, the early-season schedule for DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews looks very good against Atl, Dal, Was, NO, NYG, and Car.

He’s got the Ravens in Week Eight, but rookie Melvin Gordon starts his NFL career with a pretty appealing schedule against Det, Cin, Min, Cle, Pit, GB, Oak, and then Bal.

The Falcons have a chance to have success early in the running game with Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman with a really solid schedule of Phi, NYG, Dal, Hou, Was, NO, Ten, and TB.

It doesn’t rank very high for the first half of the season, but the Raven schedule looks just fine for Justin Forsett, with non-threatening matchups against Den, Oak, Cin, Pit, Cle, SF, Ari, and SD.

I’m not high on him this year, but LeSean McCoy gets some help from a favorable schedule early on against Ind, NE, Mia, NYG, Ten, Cin, and Jac.

The Bear schedule stacks up as the best by the numbers, and it certainly doesn’t look particularly threatening for Matt Forte against GB, Ari, Sea, Oak, KC, and Det.

They may have an ugly RBBC, but the Cowboys don’t have a bad schedule at all to open the season against NYG, Phi, Atl, NO, NE, NYG, and Sea. I’m going to give Joseph Randle the best chance to take advantage of this.

There’s nothing scary about Denver’s matchups early on, which should give C.J. Anderson a good chance to get off to a good start. He has Bal, KC, Det, Min, Oak, Cle, and GB.

Rushing - Looking Not-So-Good

It’s not all bad, but the Bengals get Bal, Sea, and Buf in their first seven games of the season, so the dual backfield of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard could be a little up-and-down to open the season.

Similarly, the Browns get tough matchups in three of their first seven games against NYJ, Bal, and Stl, so the RBBC of rookie Duke Johnson andIsaiah Crowell could be a bit of a pain early.

The schedule isn’t that great early on for Frank Gore and the Colts, since they open with Buf and NYJ and also have Hou early, so three of their first five matchups could be tough.

Things could be tough early for rookie T.J. Yeldon in Jacksonville, as they open the season with Car, Mia, Hou, and Buf on the schedule over the course of their first eight games.

Miami’s schedule ranks as one of the toughest around in the first half of the season, which isn’t great news for Lamar Miller and maybe also rookie Jay Ajayi. There are some decent matchups like Jac and Ten, but they also square off against Buf, NYJ, and Hou the first eight weeks.

It’s hard to feel good about Alfred Morris these days, especially since there’s talk of rookie Matt Jones dipping into his playing time. The Redskins also get Mia, Stl, and NYJ early on, which could be tough for Morris.

The Raider schedule actually ranks as the toughest in the league against the run Weeks One through Eight, which is not great news for Latavius Murray. He’s got Cin, Bal, Cle, Chi, Den, SD, and NYJ, which actually doesn’t look brutal but it’s mostly challenging matchups and a really bad one against the Jets.

Passing - Looking Good:

He’ll need some help coming off his ACL, and Carson Palmer and the Cards get some in the form of the easiest schedule against the pass the first half of the season. They open with NO, Chi, SF, Stl, Det, Pit, Bal, and Cle, which looks good overall.

There is nothing scary about Matt Ryan’s schedule in the first half against Phi, NYG, Dal, Hou, Was, NO, Ten, and TB, so Ryan and the Falcons should have success in September and October at least.

Joe Flacco will be in the new offense and with some new receivers, so it’s nice for them to see the most favorable schedule against the pass the first half of the season, per my projections. They get Den, Oak, Cin, Pit, Cle, SF, Ari, and SD.

The Bills catch a break early on, with matchups against Ind, NE, Mia, NYG, Ten, Cin, and Jac. That should help whomever is quarterbacking this club (likely Matt Cassel).

Jacksonville’s early schedule is tougher against the run, but it’s not that bad for Blake Bortles and the passing game against Car, Nia, NE, Ind, TB, Hou, and Buf.

The Chiefs and Alex Smith might actually throw a TD pass to a wideout this year, and – gasp – it could happen early-on with matchups against Hou, Den, GB, Cin, Chi, Min, Pit, and Det. Overall, that’s a nice schedule.

The Saints’ schedule looks good all season, and it’s nice in the first half against Ari, TB, Car, Dal, Phi, Atl, Ind, and NYG, good news for Drew Brees and the passing game.

Eli Manning and the Giant passing game could pick up where it left off in 2014, thanks to a favorable slate of games in the first half that includes Dal, Atl, Was, Buf, SF, Phi, Dal, and NO.

More good news for Geno Smith and the Jets: There’s nothing scary about a schedule that includes Cle, Ind, Phi, Mia, Was, NE, and Oak early on.

The Eagles have the best overall schedule against the pass this year, per my projected SOS, so it’s not surprise to see favorable matchups early. They have Atl, Dal, NYJ, Was, NO, NYG, and Car. Other than NYJ, that’s a good schedule, so a healthy Sam Bradford could get off to a nice start.

His schedule isn’t noticeably easy this season, but Philip Rivers in the first half of the season shouldn’t have too many problems with Cin, Min, Cle, Pit, GB, Oak, and Bal on the schedule.

Russell Wilson has a good schedule all year, and it’s solid early on against Stl, GB, Chi, Det, Cin, Car, SF, and Dal.

Passing - Looking Not-So-Good

It’s worth noting that Matthew Stafford’s schedule in the first half of the season is rather tough against SD, Min, Den, Sea, Ari, Chi, Min, and KC. Nothing terrifying, but it could be better.

Not that we’re going to do much about it, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers do get Sea and Stl the first five weeks of the season.

Robert Griffin III gets Stl and NYJ in the first half of the season, yet that still doesn’t push them down to the bottom-five in terms of toughness of schedule Weeks One through Eight.

Colin Kaepernick’s schedule stacks up as one of the worst in the first half of the season against Min, Pit, Ari, GB, NYG, Bal, Sea, and Stl.

2^nd-Half Nuggets

Rushing - Looking Good:

Eddie Lacy’s schedule is absolutely wonderful in the second half with matchups against Car, Det, Min, Chi, Det, Dal, Oak, Ari, and Min.

Jonathan Stewart has the best overall schedule against the run this year, and it’s particularly appealing in the second half of the season if he can stay in once piece. He’s got GB, Ten, Was, Dal, NO, Atl, NYG, Atl, and TB. That’s strong.

We don’t see a single tough matchup for C.J. Anderson in the second half with a slate of games that includes Ind, KC, Chi, NE, SD, Oak Pit, Cin, and SD.

The Lions have a nice schedule in the second half, so that’s good news for Joquie Bell and possibly Ameer Abdullah, as they get GB, Oak, Phi, GB, Stl, NO, SF, and Chi. Other than the Rams, that’s a favorable schedule.

He has a tough schedule early, but rookie T.J. Yeldon has a nice stretch of games from Week Eleven through Sixteen: Ten, SD, Ten, Ind, Atl, and NO. Yeldon could finish the year strongly with that schedule.

Tampa’s schedule against the run is good this year, and it’s especially good late in the season against NYG, Dal, Phi, Ind, Atl, NO, Stl, Chi, and Car. The guy who’s the best bet to benefit is Charles Sims.

Washington’s schedule gets easier in the second half of the season for Alfred Morris, and for possibly rookie Matt Jones. They have NE, NO, Car, NYG, Dal, Chi, Buf, Phi, and Dal.

He doesn’t have any cake matchups, but Latavius Murray’s schedule gets better in the second half of the season, with matchups against Pit, Min, Det, Ten, KC, Den, GB, SD, and KC.

Rushing - Looking Not-So-Good

It’ll be a tough go running the ball for the Cardinals in the second half, with a schedule that includes Sea, Cin, SF, Stl, Min, Phi, GB, and Sea. It’s not all nasty, but that’s at least three tough matchups for Andre Ellington and possibly rookie David Johnson.

There’s a rough patch in Justin Forsett’s schedule from Weeks Eleven through Fourteen with Stl, Cle, Mia, and Sea. That’s three rough matchups in four weeks. Luckily, he can make up for it in the passing game in Marc Trestman’s offense.

LeSean McCoy gets four bad matchups in the second half of the season, with a schedule that includes Mia, NYJ, NE, KC, Hou, Phi, Was, Dal, and NYJ. McCoy’s schedule ranks as the worst schedule against the run in the second half of the season.

Cincy’s schedule is tougher all season, not great news for Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard, and it doesn’t really let up in the second half, with matchups against Cle, Hou, Ari, Stl, Cle, Pit, SF, Den, and Bal.

Including Week Seventeen, LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots have four tough matchups on the ground in the second half of the season: Was, NYG, Buf, Den, Phi, Hou, Ten, NYJ, and Mia.

Dallas’ schedule ranks as the 2^nd-hardest against the run in the second half of the season, so that’s not good news for Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, and possibly every available RB who’s ever played in the NFL (Dallas is apparently interested in them all). They get Phi, TB, Mia, Car, Was, GB, NYG, Buf, and Was.

Miami and RBs Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi have a pretty tough stretch of games from Week Nine through Thirteen against Buf, Phi, Dal, NYJ, and Bal.

Playing in that tough AFC East, the Jets don’t get a lot of help schedule-wise against the run. They close with a schedule that includes several tough matchups: Jac, Buf, Hou, Mia, NYG, Ten, Dal, NE, and Buf.

Passing - Looking Good:

Good news for Cam Newton and the Panther receivers: Carolina’s schedule in the second half looks pretty strong against GB, Ten, Was, Dal, NO, Atl, NYG, Atl, and TB.

If Peyton Manning is okay health-wise, he should be in good shape to close out the season against Ind, KC, Chi, NE, SD, Oak, Pit, Cin, and SD. That’s not a scary schedule at all.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are looking good in the second half of the season, with a schedule that includes Car, Det, Min, Chi, Det, Dal, Oak, Ari, and Min.

Andrew Luck’s schedule from Weeks Eleven through Seventeen looks great, so perhaps he can avoid another slow finish. He has Atl, TB, Pit, Jac, Hou, Mia, and Ten.

The Eagle schedule is good all year, and in the second half it’s particularly appealing, with zero tough matchups: Dal, Mia, TB, Det, NE, Buf, Ari, Was, and NYG. Again, this is all good news for Sam Bradford – and it could be good news for Mark Sanchez.

Matthew Stafford’s schedule is tougher in the first half, but the schedule eases up on them in the second half with a nice slate of matchups against GB, Oak, Phi, GB, Stl, NO, SF, and Chi.

Blake Bortles’ schedule from Week Eleven on looks good, so he’ll have a chance to finish strong in his second season if he doesn’t regress. He has Ten, SD, Ten, Ind, Atl, NO, and Hou.

Once again, Geno Smith and the Jets have a good schedule against the pass this year, and it’s also strong in the second half: Jac, Buf, Hou, Mia, NYG, Ten, Dal, NE, and Buf.

There’s not a rough matchup to be found in Derek Carr and the Raiders schedule in the second half of the season: Pit, Min, Det, Ten, KC, Den, GB, SD, and KC (although KC and Den are solid).

The Redskins schedule looks good for Robert Griffin III, if he’s the guy in the second half, with matchups against NE, NO, Car, NYG, Dal, Chi, Buf, Phi, and Dal.

Passing - Looking Not-So-Good

Carson Palmer and the Cardinals have a nice schedule early, but it gets tougher in the second half of the season against Sea, Cin, SF, Stl, Min, Phi, GB, and Sea. Luckily, Seattle in Week Seventeen won’t be a factor for many.

As good as Joe Flacco’s schedule is early on, it ranks as one of the hardest in the second half of the season, yet it doesn’t look brutal against Jac, Stl, Cle, Mia, Sea, KC, Pit, and Cin,

For what it’s worth, Pittsburgh’s schedule ranks as one of the tougher ones in the league in the second half of the season. Their matchups are: Oak, Cle, Sea, Ind, Cin, Den, Bal, and Cle.

Colin Kaepernick’s schedule is not good all year, and it ranks as one of the tougher ones in the second half, with matchups against Atl, Sea, Ari, Chi, Cle, Cin, Det, and Stl. If you’re not counting Stl in Week Seventeen, though, it’s not that bad.

Team-by-Team Overviews

Note: I’ve listed some data for each team from our SOS tool, which uses data from 2014 only. The analysis is usually similar between our own 2015 projections and going off 2014’s numbers, but there are some clear differences.

Arizona – The Cardinal schedule is usually bad on paper based on their division, with the Rams now taking over for San Francisco as the other tough matchup in the division after Seattle. Arizona’s schedule ranks as the 12^th worst against the run and the 2^nd-worst against the pass. Against the run, they at least have only one tougher matchup (Bal) outside of the four matchups against the Rams and Seahawks (we also can’t call the 49ers pushovers). There’s some hope for the running game with early matchups against NO, Chi, Det, and Pit. Against the pass, their ranking is not good (2^nd-hardest), but they do have five matchups (Chi, SF, Det, Pit, and SF) that we view as favorable. The schedule for Carson Palmer and the passing game is definitely easier earlier in the season, but it looks fairly tough in the second half of the season against Sea, Cin, SF, Sea, Cin, SF, Stl, Min, Phi, GB, and Sea. Their schedule for QBs and RBs, per our SOS tool, using last year’s numbers, are both slightly below average.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Average-to-below-average against Stl, Min, Phi, and GB.

Atlanta – With Atlanta playing the AFC South this year, their schedule looks a lot better than it did going into 2014. Their schedule against the run doesn’t look easy on paper, but there’s really not a scary matchup against the run all year other than Houston as far as we can tell heading into the season. They have five matchups against the run that we view as favorable (including NO in Week Seventeen). Against the pass, it looks even easier, as we see seven favorable matchups (Dal, Was, NO, Ten, SF, Jac, and NO). Their playoff schedule will depend greatly on the strength of the Panther defense, since they play them twice from Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen. Their schedule ranks as the 4^th best against RBs and 3^rd best against QBs, according to our SOS tool.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Up-and-down against TB, Car, Jac and Car.

Baltimore – The Raven schedule this year looks slightly below-average against the run and slightly above-average against the pass, so it’s basically middle-of-the-road. Against the run, they do have only one very good matchup (Oak) and three matchups (Stl, Mia, and Sea) that we view as tougher. The good news is Marc Trestman loves the pass and they have five matchups that we view as favorable against Oak, Pit, SF, Jac, and Pit. If that tougher schedule against the run slows Justin Forsett down carrying the rock, he’ll have a better chance to make up for it in the passing game under Trestman and with a solid schedule. However, According to our SOS tool, their schedule ranks as the 2^nd-hardest against QBs (and slightly below-average against RBs).

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Probably more challenging than appealing against Mia, Sea, KC, and Pit.

Buffalo – The Bills at least don’t have to play themselves, but they do have four games against the Jets and Dolphins, and their schedule against the run suffers because of it. Their schedule against the run ranks as the 4^th-hardest, according to my projections, with those four games plus a tougher contest against the Texans, who now have DT Vince Wilfork. That’s not great news for LeSean McCoy, who’s OL was one of the five worst in the league blocking for the run in 2014. Against the pass, the schedule is easier, and we have only their two matchups against the Jets being tough on paper. They also have what look like softer matchups against the pass versus NE, Mia, NYG, Ten, Jac, Mia, NE, and Dal. Playing against the NFC East does help them, but the Eagle and Redskin defense should improve from last year. Their schedule against the pass in our SOS tool is middle of the pack, but the tool does rank their schedule against the run 11^th best. Again, that tool is using only 2014 numbers whereas I’m grading on a 2015 basis.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: About average against Hou, Phi, Was, and Dal

Carolina – Playing against the AFC South this year, the Panthers should be getting a break from the schedule. Against the run, their schedule stacks up as the easiest in the league, per our projected SOS. Jonathan Stewart was a top-12 back the final seven games of the season, and he’ll have some cushy matchups in the second half of the season against NO, Ind, Dal, NO, Atl, and Atl, with only two matchups that look particularly tough earlier in the season (Hou and Sea). Carolina’s schedule against the pass stacks up as being only middle-of-the-pack, but we see only one tough matchup (Sea) and four good ones against TB, Ten, Dal, and TB (Week Seventeen). Overall, the schedule looks fine for Cam Newton and the passing game, and it looks particularly appealing come playoff time. And the SOS tool agrees, ranking their schedule as the 5^th best against QBs and 2^nd-best against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: About as good as it gets against NO, Atl, NYG, and Atl

Chicago – Last year, the Bears had what looked like a tough schedule against the run and what looked like a great schedule against the pass, and those indicators were in line with how their 2014 season played out. This year, it’s the opposite, since they come in as the 10^th-best schedule against the run and the 4^th-hardest against the pass. The Bears will likely run it more under John Fox, while pulling back from their reliance on Jay Cutler, and the schedule even suggests they should do that. Matt Forte is 30 now and has handled a massive workload, so there’s concern with him. But it can’t hurt that his schedule is easier this year, since he has only two matchups against tough run defenses (Sea and Stl) and a few nice matchups to go along with mostly medium matchups. Against the pass, we have the aforementioned Sea and Stl, but nothing ultra-scary otherwise, with three matchups that look good on paper at least (Oak, SF, TB). Our SOS tool doesn’t like their schedule, ranking it as the 8^th-hardest against QBs and the 4^th-hardest against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not bad at all against SF, Was, Min, and TB

Cincinnati – The SOS analysis is not good for the Bengals, who check in as the 5^th-hardest schedule against both the run and the pass. Against the run, we see at least six top run defenses on their schedule in Bal, Sea, Buf, Hou, Stl, Den, and Bal. It’s still not something I’d panic about with Jeremy Hill, but it’s worth noting if you’re having a tough call in a draft with Hill and another high-end option. Against the pass, Andy Dalton and friends have tough matchups against Sea and Stl, but also favorable ones against Oak, Pit, Pit, and SF. Their schedule per our SOS tool is the 3^rd-hardest against the pass and the hardest against the run, so it’s clear the Bengal schedule is looking challenging this year.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: It could be a lot worse against Cle, Pit, SF, and Den

Cleveland – It’s not a good year for the NFC North schedule-wise, since they match up with the NFC West this year, and the Browns get tough matchups against Sea and Stl and also medium-to-difficult matchups against Ari and SF. They come in as the 2^nd-hardest schedule against the run and the 7^th-hardest against the pass in our projected SOS. We’re likely looking at a RBBC here, at least early in the season, and the schedule for their RBs has some rough spots (against NYJ, Bal, De, Stl, Bal, and Sea) as well as some other potentially-challenging matchups. There are some tough spots on the schedule against the pass, like NYJ, Stl, Sea, and KC, but also nice matchups against Ten, Oak, Pit, SF, and Pit, so the schedule looks fairly decent for whomever is quarterbacking this team (presumably Josh McCown to open the season). Our SOS tool doesn’t like either schedule based on last year’s numbers, ranking them as the 4^th-worst matchup against QBs and the 3^rd-hardest against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Nothing earth-shattering against Cin, Bal, Sea, and KC

Dallas – Last year, we raved about how great the Cowboy schedule looked, and they all had a great year. But there’s a price to pay, and it comes from a schedule that this year ranks below–average against the run and the pass. Their schedule against the run checks in as the 6^th-hardest, with matchups against Sea, Mia, Car, NYJ, and Buf. Dallas has that great OL, but it would have been nice for their new lead back – if they even have one – to have a schedule that was favorable, but it is not. Against the pass, it’s the 10^th-hardest on our projected SOS. Matchups against NYJ and Sea are nasty, but the schedule doesn’t look too, too bad after that for Tony Romo and the passing game, plus they have some matchups (Atl, NO, NE, TB, Mia, and Was) that could be quite juicy. In fact, our SOS tool does have them with the 7^th-best schedule against QBs this year and the 12^th-best against RBs. But note ourSOS tool doesn’t consider 2015 personnel and our analysis here does.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Decent early and terrible after that against Was, GB, NYJ, Buf

Denver – Denver’s usually looking pretty good schedule-wise, and they’re back again on the positive side in 2015. Against the run, we have them as owning the 2^nd-easiest schedule, helped by matchups against Min, Oak, Cle, Ind, and Oak. This is setting up well for C.J. Anderson in 2015. Against the pass, we have them with the 7^th-easiest schedule. Matchups against Oak, Chi, NE, Oak, and Pit look great on paper, and we don’t see a single tough matchup on the schedule for them this year. Obviously, they’ll face some defenses that are better than projected, but it looks good for Peyton Manningand the passing game. There is a clear disconnect between our projected SOS and what 2014’s numbers tell us in our SOS tool. The tool has Denver with the 9^th-hardest schedule against the pass based on 2014’s numbers. Against the run, the tool has them with a middle-of-the-pack rankings (14^th best).

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not bad at all against SD, Oak, Pit, and Cin

Detroit – As it did last year, the schedule doesn’t look to be particularly impactful for the Lions. They do rank as the 4^th-best against the run, though, and that could help Joquie Bell or even rookie Ameer Abdullah. The schedule is helped by four matchups against Min and Chi, two teams that we’re thinking will be below-average against the run (although the Vikings could be better than that if they’re healthy at DT). They also have Oak and NO, giving them six matchups that we view as favorable. Against the pass the schedule looks less appealing, as it checks in as our projected 7^th-hardest this year. The numbers could be slightly skewed, however, by two matchups against Sea and Stl because it otherwise doesn’t look that bad, and they get Chi, Oak, SF, and Chi, giving them at least four matchups that we consider favorable. Per our SOS tool, their schedule is 13^th-best against QBs, so it differs from our 2015-centric analysis, and it is only 16^th-best against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Pretty decent against GB, Stl, NO, and SF

Green Bay – Other than a tricky first month for Eddie Lacy, we loved the Packer schedule in this article in 2014, and things did work out well for all their key players. This year, the schedule isn’t quite as good overall, but it’s still more favorable than not. Lacy gets a nice break with a schedule that we rank as the 5^th-easiest against the run. There are some tough spots like Sea, Stl, and Den, but Lacy also has nice matchups against Chi, Min, Chi, Dal, Oak, and Min. The schedule is set up for him to have yet another strong finish to the season. Against the pass, we have Green Bay’s schedule as middle-of-the-back, as it ranks as the 15^th best according to our projected SOS. Aaron Rodgers and friends do get Sea and Stl, but also favorable matchups against Chi, SF, Car, Det, Chi, Det, and Dal, so the schedule looks like a positive for the Packer passing game. SOS tool, using only 2014’s data, sees their schedule as a little harder than we project, ranking it as the 11^th-hardest against the pass and the 7^th-hardest against the run.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Pretty darn good against Det, Dal, Oak, and Ari

Houston – The schedule doesn’t look quite as good for the Texans as it did last year, but it’s still more favorable than not. For the run, it ranks as the 11^th-easiest. There are some tough games here for Arian Foster and the Texans against Mia, NYJ, and Buf, but also some solid matchups against teams like TB, Atl, Ind, Jac, Ten, No, Ind, Ten, and Jac. As usual, playing in the AFC South is a big advantage for Foster and the Texans. Against the pass, the schedule is right smack in the middle of our projected top-32, ranking as the 16^th-easiest/hardest. But other than two tough matchups against NYJ and Buf, the Texans schedule against the pass looks pretty good, with matchups against TB, Atl, Jac, Ten, NO, NE, Ten, and Jac. Our SOS tool has them with the 11^th-hardest schedule against QBs, which is close to our ranking, and the 3^rd-best against RBs, which is better than our ranking (but also positive).

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not too bad against Buf, NE, Ind, and Ten

Indianapolis – The Colts schedule is usually great due to their playing in the weaker AFC South, but it’s not quite as good in 2015. Against the run, it ranks as the 7^th-hardest, which is due, in large part, to three matchups against AFC East teams that are tough against the run (NYJ, Buf, and Mia), and they also get Hou twice, and we think they’ll be tough to run on in 2015. Frank Gore and the Colts get only NO and Atl as favorable matchups. The schedule does look better for Andrew Luck and the passing game, though, ranking as the 12^th-easiest this year. Matchups against NYJ and Buf are tough, but Luck also gets Ten, Jac, NE, NO, Atl, TB, Pit, Jac, Mia, and Ten. Indy’s schedule against the pass looks particularly good in the second half of the season. SOS tool, however, has the Colts with the 9^th-best schedule against RBs, and that’s considerably better than our projection. Against QBs it’s in line with our ranking, as it’s the 11^th-easiest.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Looking solid overall against Pit, Jac, Hou, and Mia

Jacksonville – The schedule looked very favorable for the Jaguars last year, but as we know that didn’t matter much because they weren’t equipped to take advantage of some good matchups. This year, it’s not as favorable. Against the run, Jacksonville’s schedule ranks as the 8^th-hardest, which isn’t great news for rookie T.J. Yeldon and their other RBs. We count six matchups against tough run defenses in Mia, Hou, Buf, NYJ, Bal, and Hou, plus Car could be a matchup that is well below-average against the run. The good news is that they get some softer matchups Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen against Ten, Ind, Atl, and NO. Against the pass, the Jag schedule looks middle-of-the-pack, ranking as the 12^th-hardest. However, we really see only one brutal matchup for Blake Bortles and the Jaguar passing game (NYJ). They get beatable matchups against NE, TB, Ten, Ten, Atl, and NO. Despite the ranking, we’d lean to the Jaguar schedule being a positive against the pass. Our SOS tool has them with the 12^th best against QBs and the 10^th-best against RBs, so looking at 2014’s data gives a little more optimistic outlook.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Very good against Ten, Ind, Atl, and NO

Kansas City – The Chief schedule has been a strength for them in recent seasons, and it looks pretty good again in 2015. They check in as having the 12^th-easiest schedule against the run, so while the schedule isn’t fantastic, it’s a positive for Jamaal Charles more than a negative. There are tougher matchups against Hou, Buf, and Bal and softer matchups against Min, Pit, Oak, Cle, and Oak. The schedule against the pass ranks a little higher, coming in as the 9^th-easiest, which should be good news for Alex Smith and new No. 1 WR Jeremy Maclin. We do not see a single tough matchup against the pass on the schedule in 2015, and there are four good ones (Chi, Pit, Oak, and Oak), so the schedule is once again helpful for the Chiefs. Our SOS toolhas KC middle-of-the-pack against QBs and RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Easier than tough against Oak, SD, Bal, and Cle

Miami – The schedule looked very good for the Dolphins in 2014, but unfortunately for them, it’s considerably tougher in 2015. It checks in as the 3^rd-hardest against the run, which isn’t the end of the world for Lamar Miller (and maybe Jay Ajayi), but it’s not a positive factor. The problem, of course, is that they have to face off against NYJ and Buf two times each, and they also have Bal and Hou on the schedule, giving them six tough matchups on paper, with only two favorable ones (Dal and Ind). It’s also tougher against the pass, ranking as the 6^th-hardest, so the schedule isn’t a big positive forRyan Tannehill and their receivers. Again, facing NYJ and Buf four games total doesn’t help. The good news is those are the only “tough” matchups we see, and we see four potentially good ones (Ten, NE, Dal, and NE). So basically, other than those four matchups against the Jets and Bills – none of which come during the fantasy playoff weeks – the schedule looks fine for Miami. Our SOS tool has them with the 8^th-worst schedule against the run, in line with our projected SOS, but with the 10^th-best schedule against the pass.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not bad at all against Bal, NYG, SD, and Ind

Minnesota – The Vikings haven’t had a particularly good or bad schedule on paper the last couple of seasons, and in 2015 that seems to be the case as well. Their schedule against the run, though, does check in at a positive 6^th-easiest in the league. It doesn’t look overwhelmingly-good and does have some tougher matchups (Stl and Sea), but it’s mainly a bunch of medium matchups along with a few good ones (Chi, Oak, Atl, and Chi). Overall, the schedule shouldn’t slow Adrian Peterson down, and it could help him and Jerick McKinnon. Against the pass it looks a little tougher, ranking as the 14^th-hardest this year. But other than those matchups against Sea and Stl, it doesn’t look too bad for Teddy Bridgewater and, in fact, has four softer matchups (SF, Chi, Oak, and Chi), so the schedule shouldn’t be too much of a problem for Bridgewater and the Viking passing game. Our SOS tool has their schedule as middle-of-the-pack against RBs and QBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: It could be better but it could be worse against Sea, Ari, Chi, and NYG

New England – The Patriots schedule was covered here last year as being a clear positive, but it’s not as good in 2015. Against the run, it ranks as the hardest in the league by our projected SOS, so that’s not good news for a backfield that gives us headaches regardless of the matchups. The low ranking is obviously due to their division, and their six matchups against Buf, NYJ, and Mia are all tough. They also have Hou on the schedule, giving them seven matchups against the run that we view as difficult. It’s not as bad against the pass, at least, which is worth noting if Jimmy Garoppolo has to start four games for Tom Brady. Other than two matchups against the excellent NYJ secondary, we don’t see any other bad matchups, although Buffalo’s pass defense is quite good and could be considered excellent. Brady also has some softer matchups against Pit, Dal, and Ten. Our SOS tool has them with the 9^th-easiest against QBs and the 12^th-hardest against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Leaning toward the negative against Phi, Hou, Ten, and NYJ

New Orleans – Playing in the weaker NFC South, the Saints usually have a solid schedule, and they do again this year, especially since they’re also playing the weaker AFC South. Against the run, their schedule ranks as the 8^th-best, which is solid news for Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller. There’s only one tougher matchup (Hou) and several that look good on paper (Dal, Atl, Ind, Atl). The Saints want to run the ball more or at least stay consistent with the run as they did in 2014, and the schedule should help that cause. Against the pass, it also ranks as the 8^th-best. Drew Brees and the Saint passing game could use a little outside help at this point, and they get some from a schedule that has zero matchups against defenses that we view as being tough against the pass, plus they have four matchups (TB, Dal, Ten, TB) that we view as favorable. Our SOS tool has them with the 4^th-easiest and 7^th-easiest schedule against QBs and RBs, respectively.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Very good against Car, TB, Det, and Jac

NY Giants – The Giant schedule was really good last year, and we covered that in this article. Things worked out well for the passing game, but their poor run-blocking hurt their rushing attack, although Rashad Jennings was still productive when he was healthy and getting the ball (he averaged 18 points a game in PPR in the six games he got 20 or more touches). This year, it’s tougher for the run, though, ranking as the 12^th-hardest per our projected SOS. Their number likely comes in low based on three matchups against Buf, NYJ, and Mia, but they do also get some nice matchups against Dal, Atl, Dal, NO, and Min, so it’s not all bad for their running game. Against the pass, the schedule ranks as the 4^th-easiest, so that’s good news for Eli Manning and the receivers. They have only one scary matchup (NYJ) and some easier ones against Dal, SF, Dal, TB, NE, and maybe Mia, who are thin this year at CB. There are also a number of medium matchups (Atl, Was, Was, NO) that could wind up being very good. Per our SOS tool, Eli has the 6^th-easiest schedule against the pass, with the RBs having a schedule that lands middle-of-the-pack.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not that great against NYJ, Mia, Car, and Min

NY Jets – Despite playing in a division full of good defenses, the Jets 2015 schedule looks like a positive, since they don’t have to play themselves. They check in with the 13^th-easiest schedule against the run, but they do have to play Mia, Buf, Hou, Mia, and Buf and get only three favorable matchups against Ind, Oak, and Dal. So the schedule is up-and-down for Chris Ivory and their large stable of viable backs, who could wind up making this backfield a fantasy wasteland. Against the pass, though, things look more positive, as their schedule ranks as the 3^rd-easiest, despite their division. The might catch a break if Miami’s shaky secondary is vulnerable, and New England’s should be shaky with all their losses at CB. We’re showing zero matchups against a top pass defense and some nice games against teams like NE, Oak, Jac, NYG, Ten, Dal, and NE. Geno Smith is the anointed starter and they have been very clear that he’s the guy, so he has a real chance to put up career-best numbers under QB-friendly OC Chan Gailey. Our SOS tool has them middle-of-the-pack at QBs and with the 8^th-easiest schedule against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Very good against NYG, Ten, Dal, and NE

Oakland – The Raiders are a young team that could use some help from the schedule, but it’s hard to say they get much of it in 2015. Against the run, they rank as the 11^th-hardest. At least that’s likely a function of having only two favorable matchups (Chi, Min), since they have only two tough ones (Bal, NYJ). Otherwise, they have a bunch of matchups that look medium, so the schedule could wind up being negligible for the Raiders and Latavius Murray, as he attempts to take over this starting job. Their schedule against the pass ranks as the 7^th-hardest, but similarly that looks like a function of not having many great matchups, since they have only one tough one (NYJ). They do have three good ones (Chi, Pit, Ten), so the schedule should also be negligible for Derek Carr and the Raider passing game. Our SOS tool has them middle-of-the-pack against QBs and 12^th-hardest against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not too bad against KC, Den, GB, and SD

Philadelphia – The Eagle schedule doesn’t look great against the run, but we can’t call it bad since it is smack in the middle of the 32-team rankings. They are playing the AFC East, though, so their schedule is tougher than last year with matchups against (NYJ, Mia, and Buf). Those three matchups represent their only truly tough ones on paper, so it’s not terrible for DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and everyone else. They also get some beatable matchups against Atl, Dal, NO, and Dal. The biggest positive comes from their schedule against the pass, which ranks as the best in the league, per our projected SOS. We see only one problematic matchup (NYJ) and several (Dal, Dal, Mia, TB, NE) that look good heading into the season. This is nice news for Sam Bradford/Mark Sanchez and a revamped receiving corps that lost its top target and will look to replace him with rookie Nelson Agholor. Our SOS tool has them top-10 for QBs and about average against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Pretty decent against NE, Buf, Ari, and Was

Pittsburgh – The Steeler schedule looked great against the pass last year, which worked out, but tough against the run, which was a moot point becauseLe’Veon Bell improved so much and emerged as the best overall back in the league. This year, the schedule does look tougher. Against the run, it ranks as the 10^th-hardest this year. There are four tough matchups (Stl, Bal, Sea, and Bal) and only two favorable ones (Oak, Ind). But again, the schedule didn’t really slow Bell down last year, so the only concern is his pending suspension length (there’s a chance it’s cut down from 3 to 1-2). Against the pass, it looks a little tougher and comes in as the 3^rd-hardest in 2015. Since they’re playing the NFC West, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers get Sea and Stl, but that’s in terms of potentially-smothering pass defenses. Big Ben and friends have three good matchups as well (NE, SF, and Oak), so the schedule isn’t something to panic about. For what it’s worth, using last year’s numbers, our SOS tool has them with the worst schedule for QBs and the 6^th-worst against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: About average against Ind, Cin, Den, and Bal

San Diego – Playing in the AFC West isn’t usually a big challenge for the Chargers, and this year they play the NFC North, which also isn’t a big challenge. The Charger schedule looks like a positive overall, and it ranks as the 9^th-best against the run. Melvin Gordon has only two tough matchups (Bal, Mia) and four good ones (Min, Oak, Chi, and Oak). The schedule should be helpful for the rookie and presumed starter Gordon. Their schedule ranks as the 10^th-best against the pass, so it’s also solid news for Philip Rivers and the passing game. There are zero matchups that we view as tough against the pass and five (Pit, Oak, Chi, Mia, and Oak) that we view as favorable. The Chargers lost Eddie Royal and replaced him with Stevie Johnson, which is a slight upgrade. But they didn’t do much else to help this receiving corps and they lack speed, so a solid schedule should offer them some help. OurSOS tool has them slightly below average against QBs and slightly above-average against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not too bad against Den, KC, Mia, and Oak

San Francisco – The Niners are clearly a team that could use some help from the schedule, but unfortunately for them they don’t really get much in 2015. Against the run they do check in as the 14^th best, so that’s not too bad for Carlos Hyde as he looks to take over for Frank Gore. He’s got some decent matchups against teams like Min, Pit, Atl, Chi, and Cle, but some tougher ones against Bal, Sea, Stl, Sea, and Stl. Playing in the NFC West doesn’t help, but their schedule against the run could be worse. But it’s downright nasty against the pass, thanks in large part to playing Sea and Stl twice. The good news is that’s the extent of their bad matchups, but Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have only two matchups that we view as being good (Pit and Chi), so we can’t call their schedule overall favorable. But at least it’s not too bad during the fantasy playoffs. Our SOS tool has them in the bottom ten against QBs and RBs, so it’s in line with our projection.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: As good as one could hope for as an NFC West tem against Chi, Cle, Cin, and Det

Seattle – Seattle has about as good of a schedule as you could hope for, given their division. They rank as only the 15^th-best schedule against the run, but other than Stl twice and Bal, there’s nothing scary about the matchups for Marshawn Lynch. Lynch also gets some softer matchups against Chi, Dal, and Min. Against the pass, the schedule looks even better for Russell Wilson and their receivers, ranking as the 5^th-best this year. Wilson obviously gets Stl twice, but that’s it for the tough matchups, and he has some nicer ones in Chi, SF, Dal, SF, and Pit. The schedule looks to be their friend this year against the pass. The big difference in our SOS tool is that it has Wilson’s schedule as the 12^th-worst for QBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Pretty decent against Min, Bal, Cle, and Stl

St. Louis – The Rams are a team that could use some help from the schedule, but since they’re in the tough NFC West, they really don’t get it. They rank as the 16^th-hardest schedule against the run, but at least they have only three tough matchups on paper (Sea, Sea, and Bal). They have only two favorable matchups, though, against Min and Chi. So it’ll be a tougher schedule than average for RBs Todd Gurley and Tre Mason. The schedule is a little tougher against the pass, ranking as the 9^th most difficult in the league this year. Obviously, playing Sea twice hurts, but the good news is those are the only two terrifying matchups they have all year. Nick Foles and company also have some solid matchups against Pit, SF, Chi, TB, and SF, so it’s not all bad for the Rams. Our SOS tool has them with a bottom-10 schedule against QBs and RBs, for what it’s worth.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Could be worse against Ari, Det, TB, and Sea (although Sea in Week Sixteen is tough)

Tampa Bay – The Bucs could certainly use some help from the schedule, and in 2015 they do get some. They rank as the 3^rd-best schedule against the run, which can’t hurt a guy like Charles Sims’ chances (plus Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey). They have two tough matchups in Hou and Stl, but also a whopping seven matchups that look very good on paper (NO, Atl, Dal, Ind, Atl, NO, and Chi). Their schedule looks particularly good in the second half of the season, perhaps as good as it gets in the NFL against the run in 2015. For the pass, their schedule ranks as the 11^th-best, which is solid. RookieJameis Winston has only one matchup that looks overly-challenging (Stl) and several that look good heading into the season (Ten, Dal, Chi). The rest of the matchups are medium, so the schedule should be negligible or a positive for Winston and his receivers. The SOS tool loves their schedule and has it as the best for QBs and RBs in 2015.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Very good other than one matchup (Stl) against Atl, NO, Stl, and Chi

Tennessee – The Titans definitely need some help from the schedule, but it ranks as middle-of-the-pack against both the run and the pass. For the run, it checks in as the 15^th-worst schedule. That’s not a tragedy, of course, but they have five tough matchups (Buf, Mia, Hou, NYJ, and Hou). But they do also have some solid ones (Ind, Atl, NO, Oak, and Ind) so it’s a mixed bag for rookie David Cobb and Bishop Sankey. Their schedule against the pass stacks up as the 11^th-worst, which isn’t great news for likely starter Marcus Mariota. However, other than NYJ, they don’t have a lot of brutal matchups and have some decent ones (TB, Mia, Oak, and NE). The schedule overall is up-and-down, and their production will likely be inconsistent as well. The SOS tool has them with a middling schedule against QBs, but it actually has them with the 5^th-best schedule against RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not terrible, but not great against Jac, NYJ, NE, and Hou

Washington – The Redskins are yet another team that could use some relief from the schedule, and they do at least get some in the passing game. Against the run, though, they rank as only 14^th-hardest. The problem is that they’re playing the AFC North, and Alfred Morris and the other backs will have to square off against Mia, Stl, NYJ, and Buf. They at least have an equal number of appealing matchups against Atl, No, Dal, Chi, and Dal, so it’s an up-and-down schedule for their running game. Against the pass, they look better, ranking as the 6^th-best in the league. They get Stl and NYJ, but that’s in in terms of discouraging matchups, and they have some solid ones (Mia, TB, NE, Dal, Chi, and Dal). It’s hard to have faith in Robert Griffin III, but a solid schedule does help, and our SOS tool has them with a top-6 schedule for QBs and RBs.

Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen: Not too bad against Dal, Chi, Buf, and Phi

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