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If you play DFS, you may want to check out what we have this year. New contributor Kevin Adams has already won $10,000 FIVE times this year already playing DF Baseball, and in Week Two he qualified for Fanduel's $2 million tournament and won $15,000 and a free trip to Vegas using. He did this using SEVEN OF THE NINE PICKS he outlined in last week's column.

Check out a sample of this week's column and make sure you do this:

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Daily Fantasy Breakdown: FanDuel - Week Three

by Kevin Adams, DFS Analyst

For more on Daily Fantasy Sports and about Kevin Adams, check out some of the recent articles we’ve published on the subject.

Read Adams’ Daily Fantasy Sports Glossary for a breakdown on all the terms used in this piece.

FantasyGuru - Week 3 Contest on FanDuel.com
FantasyGuru has teamed up with FanDuel again for the 2014 NFL season. FanDuel brings you one-week fantasy football leagues for real money. Winners get immediate cash payouts. No season-long commitment. Join public leagues or play with friends. FanDuel has more players and pays out more money than all the other one-week fantasy football sites combined. Over $10 million paid out every week! Entry fees start from $1

On Sunday 21st of September FanDuel will be hosting a $1000 NFL contest just for FantasyGuru readers. It costs just $1 to enter and there are $1000 in cash prizes up for grabs. Spots are limited to 1000 entries so be sure to get your entry in today. Don’t worry, you’ll be able to edit your line up right up until game start on Sunday 21st of September.

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FantasyGuru $1000 Contest Link

In DFS, pricing is everything, and it can vary dramatically from site to site. This column will focus specifically on FanDuel pricing. I will assign a 1-10 ranking for both cash games and Large Field Tournaments (GPPs), with 10 being the highest grade a player can earn. The ranking is built from a number of factors:

·                Price
·                The FantasyGuru weekly projections
·                Home/Road
·                Weather
·                Vegas Spread and Over/Under
·                Defensive opponent/coordinator/scheme
·                Offensive coordinator/scheme
·                Recent matchups against opponent (only if no major personnel/coaching changes)
·                A given player’s Consistency/Upside/Downside
·                Recent injury history/news
·                Projected Ownership Percentage
·                Playing Surface (grass/turf)
·                Situation/Opportunity

Week Two in Review

Week Two could not have gone much better. I realize with all the injuries, many of your season-long leagues took a huge hit. But for me, it was beautiful. Not only did almost every pick from last week’s article pay off, I was able to secure a FanDuel FFFC ticket. Here is my winning lineup:

QB – Rodgers
RB – Morris
RB – Bernard
WR – Nelson
WR – A. Johnson
WR – Hunter
TE – Walker
K – Zuerlein
D- Patriots
Total Points - 164.54

Seven of nine players were featured in last weeks article. The only two who were not (A. Johnson/Patriots) were my attempt to find a couple low-owned players to mix in with the guys I knew would be more heavily owned (Rogers/Nelson/Hunter).d

Moving forward, I will continue to pay up for secure QBs and elite WRs (Cash Games). Let your opponent make the mistakes by rolling out GPP players in them. For example, Justin Hunter was 23% owned in one of my cash games last week! This just makes no sense to me in a PPR format. It lets me know there are a lot of players that just don’t understand what type of player is right for cash games. Sure Hunter is extremely talented, but he is still very raw and playing with a shaky QB and thus comes with extreme volatility. He could go for 2/12 or 5/140/2 and neither would surprise me. Players like this should be used in GPPs only.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees ($9.1k) vs. Vikings
Saints -10 O/U 49

Don’t let the Vikings #1 rank against the pass fool you. So far in 2014, they have only faced two back-up QBs for the Rams (Shaun Hill/Austin Davis), and a Patriots team that was firmly committed to the running game (37 rushes to just 22 passes). Drew Brees could have 21 pass attempts by halftime. Expect Brees and an angry 0-2 Saints offense to pick apart the Vikings, as he rolls to 300 yards and 2-3 TDs. He is (by far) my #1 Cash Game QB of the week, and is only the 4^th-most expensive. Brees (especially at home) also comes with one of the highest ceilings in the NFL, so he makes a solid GPP play as well this week.

Points Needed to Reach Value:
Cash Game (2x) = 18.2 points
GPP (3x) = 27.3 points

Guru’s Projection = 260 passing yards, 3 TDs (22.4 points)
Cash Game Ranking: 10
GPP Ranking: 9

Matt Ryan ($8.7k) vs. Buccaneers
Falcons -6.5 O/U 46

The Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. The popular opinion in DFS is to just fade the game since TNF games are notorious for low scoring games (they have produced 9% fewer points on average since 2006). I usually do this as well, but I just like this matchup and situation too much to ignore it. Even though Roddy White may not play with a hamstring injury, Ryan does have Julio Jones. Ryan also gets his left tackle (Jake Matthews) back, which should significantly help the Falcon offense. In addition, Tampa Bay will be without key defensive players, with DE Adrian Clayborn, LB Mason Foster, and DT Gerald McCoy out. I expect Ryan to reach his cash game value while also providing the upside needed to take down a GPP. Also important to note, this point spread opened with ATL as -5 point favorite (O/U 45) but has already moved the line 1.5 points towards Ryan and the Falcons (O/U +1). I would expect to see it climb to -7 by kickoff.

Points Needed to Reach Value:
Cash Game (2x) = 17.4 points
GPP (3x) = 26.1 points

Guru’s Projection = 280 passing yards, 2 TDs (19.2 points)
Cash Game Ranking: 6
GPP Ranking: 8

(Note: The reason I don’t give Ryan a higher cash rating is because his price is only $400 less than Brees, not enough to justify not paying-up for his safety.)

Nick Foles ($8.4k) vs. Redskins
Eagles –6.5 O/U 50

Foles hasn’t played well yet this season, but still has been great for fantasy owners. He really struggled to connect with his wideouts on Monday Night. Foles went 15/19 with an astonishing 13.7 YPA when throwing to his running backs, yet only connected 6/18 times with a 3.9 YPA when targeting all others (Thanks to Greg Cosell for those stats). Nonetheless, this matchup provides all the things you look for in DFS. He is at home, in a great offensive scheme, facing a mediocre defense, and is surrounded by dynamic playmakers. The Eagles also have one of the best offensive lines in football, even with injuries and suspensions, which should be able to control the line of scrimmage. The only “problem” would be the Eagles getting out to a big lead. I could see them running the ball 40+ times in this scenario, which would really limit Foles’ upside.

Points Needed to Reach Value:
Cash Game (2x) = 16.8 points
GPP (3x) = 25.2 points

Guru’s Projection = 265 passing yards, 2 TDs (18.6 points)
Cash Game Ranking: 5
GPP Ranking: 8

I also like Aaron Rodgers ($9.8k), Matt Stafford ($9k), and Jay Cutler ($8.1k) this week and plan on using them in GPP lineups across the industry. Any one of them can easily be the top performing QB and help you take down a tournament. I also think all three will meet or exceed value, making them solid options for cash games. I would just (again) prefer to use Brees since he is the same price as Stafford and actually $700 fewer than Rodgers.

“GPP Only” QB Plays

These players should be used only in large-field tournaments, where the focus is lower ownership and big upside.

Cam Newton ($8.6k) vs. Steelers
Panthers -3 O/U 42

Andy Dalton (7.9k) vs. Titans
Bengals -6.5 O/U 42.5

Tony Romo ($7.6k) @ Rams
Cowboys -1 O/U 44

Kirk Cousins (6.8k) @ Eagles
Eagles -6.5 O/U 50

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